*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

[MTskibum 459]

14 minutes ago, Doug B said:

... way things are looking, you can pretty much throw out all reasonably healthy Americans under 60. I guess your 55-year-old guy that walks an hour a day and eats decently is at somewhat more of a risk than the 30-year-old overweight guy. But in general, that kind of stuff should smooth out in your under-60 set of Americans.

 

That is not the case, people in their 30's are still being hospitalized. The first case in America had to be treated with experimental drugs and supplemental oxygen and he was only mid 30's.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home

 

[shader 7,886]

I know this isn't the political forum, so I'll be careful here.....

 

I could see a scenario where with the proper direction, people band together, accept what's coming, work on solutions and beat this thing.  There's no panic, there's no run on grocery stores, solutions are provided through hard work and innovation, challenges are overcome, etc.

But then I remember that Trump and Pence are leading things.....

[Doug B 6,776]

10 minutes ago, shader said:

It is a pretty solid indicator.  I honestly don't know where you're going with this.  I never said the cruise ship alone should be used.  But it is solid because it's the first controlled environment from which we can pull some solid numbers.

That ship is a point in time in given set of conditions. Bluntly: I don't think knowing the mortality rate on that ship very much informs on-the-ground decisions made by medical staff anywhere. If you agree with that, we're on the same page.

[msommer 8,980]

3 minutes ago, Doug B said:

None of ResMed's devices are manufactured in China -- plants are in the U.S., Australia, France, and Singapore.

GE Healthcare has a much more distributed manufacturing footprint worldwide, but there are major plants in the Boston and Chicago areas.

Becton Dickinson is also worldwide like GE, but major facilities are in NJ,  Connecticut, Spain, Singapore, and Japan.

Could still be reliant on parts made in China. The supply chains these days are long.

[Doug B 6,776]

Just now, MTskibum said:

That is not the case, people in their 30's are still being hospitalized. The first case in America had to be treated with experimental drugs and supplemental oxygen and he was only mid 30's.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home

Understood. Let's see how it holds up as a matter of percentages down the line.

[shader 7,886]

5 minutes ago, Doug B said:

That ship is a point in time in given set of conditions. Bluntly: I don't think knowing the mortality rate on that ship very much informs on-the-ground decisions made by medical staff anywhere. If you agree with that, we're on the same page.

I personally never believed a thing that came out of China.  Perhaps I was wrong in that, perhaps not.  For me, this will show us if the numbers they gave are anywhere close to the truth or not.

Remember, 3 weeks ago only 200 people had it outside China and we just didn't know what the truth was.

All the numbers on R0, death rate, etc...they all come from studies in China.

If 100 people die from that cruise ship, China numbers may be way off.  If only 5 die, the hype is possibly overblown.  It's not perfect, and due to the age it's likely there will be a bit higher death rate than normal.  But it's still a very relevant thing to watch.

 

The second group I'll watch is South Korea.  They seem to be very transparent in reporting, they won't have the age skew that the cruise ship does, and they are being extremely vigilant in their testing.

Edited February 27, 2020 by shader

[Doug B 6,776]

Just now, msommer said:

Could still be reliant on parts made in China. The supply chains these days are long.

This is true. Push comes to shove, though ... I don't think China collectively decides to hoard all its manufacturing products just to ensure that foreign (to them) ventilator manufacturers can't ramp up production. Business is still being done.

A bigger concern along these lines is there could be Chinese parts not being made right now due to plant closures and such. Hard to look deeply into that, though. I know China's leadership want the country's manufacturing to get back online ASAP and return to business as normal. I don't see an appetite for holding out manufactured goods (even medical supplies) from the rest of the world.

[BassNBrew 11,132]

1 hour ago, shader said:

Why would they not?  Why are you downplaying the potential of this?  There have been links and podcasts and scientists that have been provided in this thread that show that up to 40-60% of the population could get it.

Why would you expect that this virus would spread in a slow and steady way? China didn’t build 20 hospitals because they were bored.

Why would you believe China built 20 hospitals?Why would you believe China built 20 hospitals?

[IrishTwinkie 464]

33 minutes ago, Apple Jack said:

The CDC does not recommend masks.

They do if you are sick and want to reduce the chance of you spreading illness to others. The flu is bad this year. 8-10 people being sick in a airport isn't out of the question. Doesn't have to mean they are wigging out.

[[icon] 9,805]

5 minutes ago, shader said:

I could see a scenario where with the proper direction, people band together, accept what's coming, work on solutions and beat this thing.  There's no panic, there's no run on grocery stores, solutions are provided through hard work and innovation, challenges are overcome, etc.

But then I remember that Trump and Pence are leading things.....

No doubt. 

We have the opportunity for a  historic "pull together" moment where we rally manufacturing, medical research, military/security,  and healthcare under the flag and show the might of American Ingenuity. 

Sadly, we're not off to an optimistic start with our own CDC flat out refusing to test folks, and doing a horrible job of communicating this. 

[Terminalxylem 2,976]

7 hours ago, culdeus said:

Someone needs to explain this.  Is this like aids or something.  You never completely shed it?

Multiple potential explanations (from most to least likely, IMO):

1. Immunity is incomplete, so reinfection with the same bug is possible. Happens with other infections, like norovirus.

2. The virus mutated and she caught a new strain - despite coronavirus being mutation prone in general, some have suggested COVID-19 hasn’t shown that tendency.

3. The test of cure was a false negative.

4. The repeat test was a false positive.

5. The virus has a latent reservoir, like HIV and herpesviruses, which isn’t picked up by conventional testing. Given opportunity, it can reactivate. Nothing we know about coronoviral pathogensis suggests this occurs.

And I suppose fake news is also possible, probably near the top of the list.

[msommer 8,980]

2 minutes ago, Doug B said:

This is true. Push comes to shove, though ... I don't think China collectively decides to hoard all its manufacturing products just to ensure that foreign (to them) ventilator manufacturers can't ramp up production. Business is still being done.

A bigger concern along these lines is there could be Chinese parts not being made right now due to plant closures and such. Hard to look deeply into that, though. I know China's leadership want the country's manufacturing to get back online ASAP and return to business as normal. I don't see an appetite for holding out manufactured goods (even medical supplies) from the rest of the world.

Yeah, the ramp up could be problematic. Say the powers that be realize a need for 100,000 ventilators (or 10,000, I have no clue as to magnitude etc). They contact the manufacturers who sell them everything in stock and back order the rest. How long time would it take for the orders to move down the supply chain, to be scheduled, produced, shipped, assembled, shipped again and installed in the hospitals? How long before there were sufficient trained staff (at whatever level required) monitoring them, until procedures were in place so front line staff could take immediate action without needing signoff by doctors et al ( for fear of malpractice suits)? If any parts come from overseas I'd say you can forget about more ventilators not already produced in use this flu season

[Terminalxylem 2,976]

6 hours ago, culdeus said:

If kids don't die of this what is the point of closing schools?  It just becomes a cross contamination point?  If that is the case can you really re-open until a vax is ready?

Why can't we wall off the old people rather than the young?

Kids still get sick. And more importantly, they have terrible hygiene and readily spread anything they contract.

ETA I see others chimed in long ago. This thread moves too fast!

Edited February 27, 2020 by Terminalxylem

[JerseyToughGuys 3,149]

19 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

And to further the point home, it's not like all the available beds are in the right place. If Atlanta/Chicago/New York or any other large city gets hit hard, they will be overwhelmed almost overnight. Keep in mind China is welding doors shut to keep their populace isolated, a city of 11 million is a virtual ghost town. That absolutely will not happen here so the ramifications of a mobile populace spreading this #### around has to be astronomically higher.

Karen is going to send little Jimmy to school damnit! Screw the government telling her what to do.

Were those videos ever authenticated? I see them mentioned frequently. 

Edited February 27, 2020 by JerseyToughGuys

[[icon] 9,805]

48 minutes ago, Apple Jack said:

The CDC does not recommend masks.

We've been around this ferris wheel several times in here.

Facts:

• The CDC absolutely DOES recommend masks as a tool to effectively reduce infection for healthcare workers.
• The masks do NOT magically stop reducing risk of infection once you leave the grounds of a hospital. 
• The masks are NOT recommended for the public because normal folks GENERALLY aren't in close enough proximity to the infected to need them. 
• Being in an airport is significantly higher risk area than normal day to day life, with a substantially higher risk of exposure for most. 

 

 

Edited February 27, 2020 by [icon]

[beer 30 3,407]

2 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

Were those videos ever authenticated? I see them mentioned frequently. 

I don't know, I'm trying to set the mood, quit throwing shade GB

Seriously, I've seen enough that some of them have to be true given what we know about China and how they crack down on the populace. We won't respond in any way shape or form like the China has. Too many politically correct will get offended and with the speed this thing moves, it will be well past too late by then.

[moleculo 9,230]

2 minutes ago, [icon] said:

We've been around this ferris wheel several times in here.

Facts:

• The CDC absolutely DOES recommend masks as a tool to effectively reduce infection for healthcare workers.
• The masks do NOT magically stop reducing risk of infection once you leave the grounds of a hospital. 
• The masks are NOT recommended for the public because normal folks GENERALLY aren't in close enough proximity to the infected to need them. 
• Being in an airport is significantly higher risk area than normal day to day life, with a substantially higher risk of exposure for most. 

 

 

being in an airport is still substantially lower risk of exposure vs healthcare worker.

[Doug B 6,776]

18 minutes ago, msommer said:

If any parts come from overseas I'd say you can forget about more ventilators not already produced in use this flu season

Any parts? I respectfully disagree. I can see the supply chain somewhere being limited and the chain needing to be rerouted, somehow. If China decides to play those kinds of games, the West has no choice but to establish alternate supply chains for critical goods elsewhere. Yeah, that can't happen on a dime, but it can happen -- and it would cost China a lot of manufacturing business.

Edited February 27, 2020 by Doug B

[[icon] 9,805]

6 minutes ago, moleculo said:

being in an airport is still substantially lower risk of exposure vs healthcare worker.

Absolutely. It's still high enough that I'm not rolling those dice. Just because it doesn't reduce risk to 0 doesn't mean you shouldn't do it.

That said, everyone will do what they feel is right for them. I'm not laughing at people for being idiots for NOT wearing a mask at an airport.. that's their own risk assessment. 

[JerseyToughGuys 3,149]

10 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

I don't know, I'm trying to set the mood, quit throwing shade GB

Seriously, I've seen enough that some of them have to be true given what we know about China and how they crack down on the populace. We won't respond in any way shape or form like the China has. Too many politically correct will get offended and with the speed this thing moves, it will be well past too late by then.

I saw them circulate a few weeks ago on Twitter, thought HOLY ####, then wondered if what was being depicted actually something virus-related. Pretty much question everything these days. 

[ProstheticRGK 4,060]

32 minutes ago, MTskibum said:

 

That is not the case, people in their 30's are still being hospitalized. The first case in America had to be treated with experimental drugs and supplemental oxygen and he was only mid 30's.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home

 

Reading that case, there is nothing requiring critical care, and the patient was likely going to do just as well at home as in the hospital. It actually reinforces the fact that young, healthy people should be ok. 

[JerseyToughGuys 3,149]

14 minutes ago, [icon] said:

We've been around this ferris wheel several times in here.

Facts:

• The CDC absolutely DOES recommend masks as a tool to effectively reduce infection for healthcare workers.
• The masks do NOT magically stop reducing risk of infection once you leave the grounds of a hospital. 
• The masks are NOT recommended for the public because normal folks GENERALLY aren't in close enough proximity to the infected to need them. 
• Being in an airport is significantly higher risk area than normal day to day life, with a substantially higher risk of exposure for most. 

 

 

I think we all agree that if someone at the airport coughs in your face while you are taking their vitals a mask is going to help. 

Edited February 27, 2020 by JerseyToughGuys

[culdeus 7,405]

Singapore, 5 days in a row with +1 or 0 cases. (0 today) On track to have single digits in treatment by mid next week.  

93 cases 0 dead.  

Not sure what they did, but can we copy that?

[Doug B 6,776]

Just now, ProstheticRGK said:

Reading that case, there is nothing requiring critical care, and the patient was likely going to do just as well at home as in the hospital. It actually reinforces the fact that young, healthy people should be ok. 

I have been finding that the more you dig into the "Bad News!" stuff, the less it holds up. And a lot of stuff is just flat out misunderstood, crafted into talking points, and disbursed freely on gotta-keep-you-listening! media.

[B-Deep 958]

2 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

I think we all agree that if someone at the airport coughs in your face while you are taking their vitals a mask is going to help. 

i feel bad for that dude who gave me a hernia check at in the bathroom at O'hare, i coughed right in his face

[JerseyToughGuys 3,149]

I think I am 100x more worried about the crazy people worried about the virus than actually contracting this virus. Perhaps that's odd, but I suspect the former is going to be a whole lot more disruptive to my life than the latter. 

Edited February 27, 2020 by JerseyToughGuys

[Doug B 6,776]

1 minute ago, culdeus said:

Singapore, 5 days in a row with +1 or 0 cases. (0 today) On track to have single digits in treatment by mid next week.  

93 cases 0 dead.  

Not sure what they did, but can we copy that?

Unless numbers are falsified ... SE Asia has been kicking this thing's butt.

Hoping it turns out to have been the humidity.

[JerseyToughGuys 3,149]

1 minute ago, B-Deep said:

i feel bad for that dude who gave me a hernia check at in the bathroom at O'hare, i coughed right in his face

"coughed"?

😉

[Redwes25 2,012]

18 minutes ago, [icon] said:

We've been around this ferris wheel several times in here.

Facts:

• The CDC absolutely DOES recommend masks as a tool to effectively reduce infection for healthcare workers.
• The masks do NOT magically stop reducing risk of infection once you leave the grounds of a hospital. 
• The masks are NOT recommended for the public because normal folks GENERALLY aren't in close enough proximity to the infected to need them. 
• Being in an airport is significantly higher risk area than normal day to day life, with a substantially higher risk of exposure for most. 

 

 

People disagree with you on needs/want for masks.   Think it is up to personal preference on these things.  I will say Asian culture is much more into masks.  

Lastly, think masks are most useful in stopping spread if you are already infected.  Or that is at least what I have read/heard.  

[B-Deep 958]

1 minute ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

"coughed"?

😉

there was some "phlegm"

 

 

[JerseyToughGuys 3,149]

The "but why then do medical professionals where them???????" thing is just hilarious. 

Should I wear a fireproof suit to drive my car? No?

WHY DO NASCAR DRIVERS WHERE THEM THEN, HUH? ~!@@!~@~!@?

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

6 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Singapore, 5 days in a row with +1 or 0 cases. (0 today) On track to have single digits in treatment by mid next week.  

93 cases 0 dead.  

Not sure what they did, but can we copy that?

Mike Pence is on the case.

[[icon] 9,805]

1 minute ago, Doug B said:

I have been finding that the more you dig into the "Bad News!" stuff, the less it holds up. And a lot of stuff is just flat out misunderstood, crafted into talking points, and disbursed freely on gotta-keep-you-listening! media.

There are absolutely young healthy people needing critical care or dying. That said it's FAR less likely than elderly/unhealthy people.

Now, what percentage of young Americans are obese, have high blood pressure, diabetes, heart or pulmonary disease? We don't know what effect this virus will have against those folks. I have High Blood pressure (well controlled by meds), and am a bit overweight. I would consider myself at more risk than a healthy person my age. 

[[icon] 9,805]

5 minutes ago, B-Deep said:

i feel bad for that dude who gave me a hernia check at in the bathroom at O'hare, i coughed right in his face

PROXY DEEPLES

[WDIK2 1,004]

I'm currently sitting in the Denver airport. I've seen 3 masks total.

[shader 7,886]

5 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

I think I am 100x more worried about the crazy people worried about the virus than actually contracting this virus. Perhaps that's odd, but I suspect the former is going to be a whole lot more disruptive to my life than the latter. 

Quite possible this is true.  And of course the economy. If it tanks, that’s going to affect everyone regardless of whether a family actually gets the virus or not.

[culdeus 7,405]

Just now, [icon] said:

There are absolutely young healthy people needing critical care or dying. That said it's FAR less likely than elderly/unhealthy people.

Now, what percentage of young Americans are obese, have high blood pressure, diabetes, heart or pulmonary disease? We don't know what effect this virus will have against those folks. I have High Blood pressure (well controlled by meds), and am a bit overweight. I would consider myself at more risk than a healthy person my age. 

In other news the USA crossed the threshold in 2020 where 40% of Americans are now considered obese.  Morbidly obese stayed more or less unchanged at 8%.  (In the 40% number).  USA USA USA

[culdeus 7,405]

Just now, shader said:

Quite possible this is true.  And of course the economy. If it tanks, that’s going to affect everyone regardless of whether a family actually gets the virus or not.

Careful, this comment will get you flamed by someone that says you only care about your portfolio and are not thinking enough about the children.

[shader 7,886]

7 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I have been finding that the more you dig into the "Bad News!" stuff, the less it holds up. And a lot of stuff is just flat out misunderstood, crafted into talking points, and disbursed freely on gotta-keep-you-listening! media.

Depends on where you’re getting the bad news. If you’re on Infowars, yes. A random twitter account, yes.

But if the bad news comes from scientists, it should be listened to. Don’t make the mistake of not believing it BECAUSE it’s bad news.

[msommer 8,980]

15 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Any parts? I respectfully disagree. I can see the supply chain somewhere being limited and the chain needing to be rerouted, somehow. If China decides to play those kinds of games, the West has no choice but to establish alternate supply chains for critical goods elsewhere. Yeah, that can't happen on a dime, but it can happen -- and it would cost China a lot of manufacturing business.

You didn't quote the explanation which had nothing to do with China playing games but instead how manufacturing works

Quote

How long time would it take for the orders to move down the supply chain, to be scheduled, produced, shipped, assembled, shipped again and installed in the hospitals? How long before there were sufficient trained staff (at whatever level required) monitoring them

 

[JerseyToughGuys 3,149]

3 minutes ago, shader said:

Quite possible this is true.  And of course the economy. If it tanks, that’s going to affect everyone regardless of whether a family actually gets the virus or not.

Lots of FUD on all fronts these days. 

[TheIronSheik 8,167]

3 minutes ago, culdeus said:

In other news the USA crossed the threshold in 2020 where 40% of Americans are now considered obese.  Morbidly obese stayed more or less unchanged at 8%.  (In the 40% number).  USA USA USA

These distinctions are dumb.  I'm classified as on the borderline of Overweight and Obese.  And I look good.  In the aughts, when I was having fun with drugs, I got down to 10 over my ideal weight and I looked like a crackhead.  

[shader 7,886]

2 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Careful, this comment will get you flamed by someone that says you only care about your portfolio and are not thinking enough about the children.

Monday morning I converted all my 401k to bond fund and money market.  That move was good for my children!

[[icon] 9,805]

9 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

The "but why then do medical professionals where them???????" thing is just hilarious. 

Should I wear a fireproof suit to drive my car? No?

WHY DO NASCAR DRIVERS WHERE THEM THEN, HUH? ~!@@!~@~!@?

 

I'm assuming you realize why this is an absolutely horrible analogy. If not then I might have overestimated you, GB. 

[chet 4,604]

An article highlighting CYDY's approach to treating the virus.

[[icon] 9,805]

16 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

I think I am 100x more worried about the crazy people worried about the virus than actually contracting this virus. Perhaps that's odd, but I suspect the former is going to be a whole lot more disruptive to my life than the latter. 

This. What I'm worried about is when they start closing schools, cancelling events people are going to flip the #### out and make a run on stores.

I'm going to be home binge watching Netflix and Smoking a pork shoulder when that #### goes down. 

 

Edited February 27, 2020 by [icon]

[knowledge dropper 6,584]

52 minutes ago, shader said:

I know this isn't the political forum, so I'll be careful here.....

 

I could see a scenario where with the proper direction, people band together, accept what's coming, work on solutions and beat this thing.  There's no panic, there's no run on grocery stores, solutions are provided through hard work and innovation, challenges are overcome, etc.

But then I remember that Trump and Pence are leading things.....

People do this if the weather person predicts snow or when a tropical storm forms 4 days off the coast.  We are a country full of nervous narcissists.  They will panic no matter who is president.  

[Phil Elliott 1,127]

Some people test positive after being cleared from the first instance.

[msommer 8,980]

Just now, Phil Elliott said:

Some people test positive after being cleared from the first instance.

@Terminalxylem addressed the possible causes a few pages ago

[Doug B 6,776]

19 minutes ago, msommer said:

You didn't quote the explanation which had nothing to do with China playing games but instead how manufacturing works

Quote

How long time would it take for the orders to move down the supply chain, to be scheduled, produced, shipped, assembled, shipped again and installed in the hospitals? How long before there were sufficient trained staff (at whatever level required) monitoring them

OK, I follow you. Well ... again, you're asking any entity that can help to pitch in what they can. If a given factory that puts out 15 ventilators a week says that they can't double production (and gives good reasons) ... ask them if they can do 20/wk. Or even 16.

Similar to personnel issues and 'number of rooms' concerns ... can't just throw your hands up today and declare "Game Over".

Edited February 27, 2020 by Doug B