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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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4 minutes ago, [icon] said:

We have been getting regular updates. 

On our team call yesterday we were told not to come in if we were sick at all, and can work remotely full time (vs 2 days a week) if cases surface in town. I'll be doing that. 

We got this today in a huge group meeting which we rarely have. I’m sure HR was directed to have this message put out. 

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My dad has been sick for a few weeks.  My mom called me today to say he was about to die.  I said some final words to him and he could hear me but was unable to respond.  He passed a short time later.

Not to derail anything, but we had our baby last night! She's doing amazingly well. Due to the hospital's pandemic policies, I had to leave her right after my wife was released from recovery. I can't

On a positive note, my wife gave birth to our first child this morning!! We were expecting our daughter to be born in the first week of April, which does not align very well if this hospital sees a ma

2 minutes ago, Otis said:

Why are we assuming a large influx of new patients?? For what?  When you get the flu you stay home and drink fluids. 

What I have read is 5 percent of cases are severe and need ICU type care.  With the flu that is like 0.1 percent of cases. So if outbreak is big then you could have a huge influx in cases which healthcare system has trouble handling. That is what happened in Wuhan. 

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6 minutes ago, krista4 said:

I was cleaning this morning, and we happened to run out of both Scrubbing Bubbles and Lysol bleach-y clean-y stuff, so off to Safeway I went to look like a prepper.  In that aisle, the disinfecting wipe area had been decimated.

I had bought some of these right as this was starting to go down. Was gonna be flying and was for the first time going to be “plane seat wipe down guy”.  

Well, I forgot I have them until I landed and was unpacking at hotel, but used them on subsequent flights am now going to treat my remaining stash like gold bullion.

Really disgusting how dark they turned wiping down the armrest, try, etc. Gross!

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My wife works for a large company, 100k+ worldwide. They have stopped all Asia territory travel as of a few weeks ago and just announced Italy yesterday.They also said prepare for more travel restrictions. If somebody absolutely has to go somewhere, they're now required to have a 14 day quarantine upon return.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, krista4 said:

I was cleaning this morning, and we happened to run out of both Scrubbing Bubbles and Lysol bleach-y clean-y stuff, so off to Safeway I went to look like a prepper.  In that aisle, the disinfecting wipe area had been decimated.

Amazon, babe.  Finally convinced my wife we need to (within reason) prep.  Lysol wipes and vicks-infused Puffs tissues in bulk from Amazon on their way.  I hit "SHIP IT" before she said yes.

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2 hours ago, JoeSteeler said:

Thanks to this thread I am all set now...

47 LARGE cans of dinty Moore beef stew

33 gallons of spring water

100 oz sanitizer

:thumbup:

 

unfortunately no masks yet :cry:

Ha! I just went to see the expiration dates on some canned stuff I got in 2018. Let's just say that I have a lot of canned stuff to eat by the end of the year. I'm not a big can food fan and bought a lot on 1 of those buy 1 progesso soup at regular price and get 3 cans free. Pretty unheard of. So hopefully the 80 degree weather we've been having will dramatically change so I can start souping it up.

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35 minutes ago, The General said:

My industry has a big conference in SF next month, companies are pulling out of left and right. Millions in hotel, travel plans all gone.

So far I haven’t had anything change yet have multiple trips on the books but another week or so of people getting this, general pants crapping and who knows?

I just go where they tell me.

Ours is on in Orlando but handshake free. Encouraging elbow taps. Masks available for all who want them. Medical grade. Sanitizer everywhere, everything wiped down daily. Refunds for those registered from Asia, Italy etc

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15 minutes ago, facook said:

Amazon, babe.  Finally convinced my wife we need to (within reason) prep.  Lysol wipes and vicks-infused Puffs tissues in bulk from Amazon on their way.  I hit "SHIP IT" before she said yes.

Won a free box of tissue in the Safeway Monopoly game today.  Felt like I hit the jackpot.

I did actually buy a bunch of disinfecting wipes at Costco yesterday.  Too many upcoming flights not to go ahead and be "that guy."  I'm grossed out by what The General found, though.

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34 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

What I have read is 5 percent of cases are severe and need ICU type care.  With the flu that is like 0.1 percent of cases. So if outbreak is big then you could have a huge influx in cases which healthcare system has trouble handling. That is what happened in Wuhan. 

Link?

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6 minutes ago, CurlyNight said:

Ha! I just went to see the expiration dates on some canned stuff I got in 2018. Let's just say that I have a lot of canned stuff to eat by the end of the year. I'm not a big can food fan and bought a lot on 1 of those buy 1 progesso soup at regular price and get 3 cans free. Pretty unheard of. So hopefully the 80 degree weather we've been having will dramatically change so I can start souping it up.

That Dinty Moore will just be coming into it's own by 2030. You're fine.

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1 minute ago, krista4 said:

Won a free box of tissue in the Safeway Monopoly game today.  Felt like I hit the jackpot.

I did actually buy a bunch of disinfecting wipes at Costco yesterday.  Too many upcoming flights not to go ahead and be "that guy."  I'm grossed out by what The General found, though.

Be that guy K4. Be that guy.  :D 

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Was told in a meeting that most of our Germany office was out today - either sick or on vacation.  I assume there is some bank holiday related to Lent, but a little concerned that many folks are out sick.  Office is near Stuttgart.

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5 minutes ago, The General said:

That Dinty Moore will just be coming into it's own by 2030. You're fine.

That's what I thought about a cookie box that has never been opened. Worst case I thiught is it's very stale. Opened the box and smell of plastic permeated the room. Nasty. It was about a year after the best by date.

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1 minute ago, Redwes25 said:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate
 

shows 81 percent mild, 14 percent serious and 5 percent critical.  About half of critical cases die (at least according to these Chinese study described in link). 

You can probably already see the several bad assumptions in this analysis.  But ok, so let’s assume 2.5% go to ICU and die. What’s that percentage for the flu?

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4 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

Ours is on in Orlando but handshake free. Encouraging elbow taps. Masks available for all who want them. Medical grade. Sanitizer everywhere, everything wiped down daily. Refunds for those registered from Asia, Italy etc

Yup. I like the air fist bump, dap in these situations. Touch nothing. Never been a Purell guy but have it in the bag now.

Completely pulling out of these huge shows that Vegas, Orlando, etc have pretty much every week is another level of "oh ####". Billions of dollars. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Otis said:

You can probably already see the several bad assumptions in this analysis.  But ok, so let’s assume 2.5% go to ICU and die. What’s that percentage for the flu?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-h1n1-pandemic/swine-flu-infected-1-in-5-death-rate-low-study-shows-idUSBRE90O0T720130125

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

 

Between .05 and .1% depending on the strain according to those two links.

 

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Talked to someone who spends their whole day on this subject and they suggested that the actual mortality rate will eventually be accepted to be something between .5% and .75%.  So a lot worse than the flu, but nowhere near the 2.5-3.0% we've been hearing.

The problem is in the denominator.  Probably 60-80% of cases are resolved without ever being symptomatic or bad enough to be diagnosed formally. 

Or not.  Only time will tell for sure.

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6 minutes ago, Otis said:

You can probably already see the several bad assumptions in this analysis.  But ok, so let’s assume 2.5% go to ICU and die. What’s that percentage for the flu?

Flu has mortality rate of 0.1 percent with about 1 percent of cases needing hospitalization. I don’t know what percentage of flu hospital cases needed critical/ICU care but clearly much less then 1 percent. Link to flu stuff before you ask for it: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

As I understand it, serious/critical cases with this new bug need hospitalization (just under 20 percent) with 5 percent needing critical/ICU care.

What I have also read is mortality rate is lower outside of Wuhan. Basically Wuhan’s rate is so high since healthcare system there got swamped with cases that needed critical care and they couldn’t care for everyone.  As a result, patient outcomes in Wuhan deteriorated. I think that is a risk here as well if outbreak is big. If you have been to an ICU section of a hospital it is pretty clear they don’t have a ton of beds just hanging around. They are typically full especially in winter during flu season. 

I hope we can contain the outbreak as I think risk to healthcare system is the real risk here (vs all the prepping stuff). 
 

I also hope this post ages poorly and I look like an idiot in 3 months. 

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1 hour ago, Otis said:

No. I’d look at the 1% mortality rate relative to the sub 1% mortality rate of the flu and hope she does well. What amount of canned pinto beans is going to change the outcome?

I would hope you’d at least consider wearing a hazmat suit to visit.

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7 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Talked to someone who spends their whole day on this subject and they suggested that the actual mortality rate will eventually be accepted to be something between .5% and .75%.  So a lot worse than the flu, but nowhere near the 2.5-3.0% we've been hearing.

The problem is in the denominator.  Probably 60-80% of cases are resolved without ever being symptomatic or bad enough to be diagnosed formally. 

Or not.  Only time will tell for sure.

I hope your friend is right, but there’s no data to suggest that’s likely to be true. It’s literally impossible for someone to come up with those numbers using any data that’s out there. But hopefully their gut feeling will turn out to be accurate.

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36 minutes ago, moleculo said:

Was told in a meeting that most of our Germany office was out today - either sick or on vacation.  I assume there is some bank holiday related to Lent, but a little concerned that many folks are out sick.  Office is near Stuttgart.

Bank holiday 

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1 hour ago, Otis said:

No. I’d look at the 1% mortality rate relative to the sub 1% mortality rate of the flu and hope she does well. What amount of canned pinto beans is going to change the outcome?

No, for your parents it would be a 12-15% mortality rate. 
 

You said on the previous page that you'd tell the elderly "oh well you lived a good life and something was going to get you Soon anyway".

So if your mother was hospitalized and knowing she had about a 1:6 shot of dying... would that be what you told her, and her grandchildren? 

 

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1 minute ago, Redwes25 said:

Flu has mortality rate of 0.1 percent with about 1 percent of cases needing hospitalization. I don’t know what percentage of flu hospital cases needed critical/ICU care but clearly much less then 1 percent. Link to flu stuff before you ask for it: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

As I understand it, serious/critical cases with this new bug need hospitalization (just under 20 percent) with 5 percent needing critical/ICU care.

What I have also read is mortality rate is lower outside of Wuhan. Basically Wuhan’s rate is so high since healthcare system there got swamped with cases that needed critical care and they couldn’t care for everyone.  As a result, patient outcomes in Wuhan deteriorated. I think that is a risk here as well if outbreak is big. If you have been to an ICU section of a hospital it is pretty clear they don’t have a ton of beds just hanging around. They are typically full especially in winter during flu season. 

I hope we can contain the outbreak as I think risk to healthcare system is the real risk here (vs all the prepping stuff). 
 

I also hope this post ages poorly and I look like an idiot in 3 months. 

Whether or not this post ages well is out of any of our control—but in general I agree with a lot of it.   One of the scariest things about this virus is how contagious it is—because you can spread it without even knowing you are carrying it.  Some expert epidemiologist mentioned something like that the average person that has the flu transmits it to 1.3-1.5 other people—where as each person that carries this virus is likely to pass it to 2.5-3 people.    In the US—our hospitals are packed to the brim most of the time and especially during flu season.   With this thing having the potential to spread literally twice as fast as the flu—the stress on our healthcare system could be absolutely brutal.  We also do not know if this virus really has a “season”. We assume that it probably doesn’t like warm weather—but that certainly hasn’t been 100% established yet (at least not to my knowledge).  

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2 hours ago, [icon] said:

How are we getting boxed in by circumstances? 

...

Having some supplies on hand give you infinitely more flexibility. 

No, not thinking about the immediate term with procuring food and supplies.

Looking down the road some distance. Thinking about the potential absence of a societal “all clear” — the proposition that some level of COVID infection in the population is now a permanent condition to which humanity has to adapt.

It might make more sense if I make clear that I don’t believe a vaccine is coming. The track record of vaccine development for coronaviruses has been especially discouraging. I do believe that antivirals show promise — a Tamiflu for COVID can happen. Just not sure if it will be before COVID has run a several-year course through billions of people.

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Just now, Doug B said:

No, not thinking about the immediate term with procuring food and supplies.

Looking down the road some distance. Thinking about the potential absence of a societal “all clear” — the proposition that some level of COVID infection in the population is now a permanent condition to which humanity has to adapt.

It might make more sense if I make clear that I don’t believe a vaccine is coming. The track record of vaccine development for coronaviruses has been especially discouraging. I do believe that antivirals show promise — a Tamiflu for COVID can happen. Just not sure if it will be before COVID has run a several-year course through billions of people.

So you're saying in your magic scenario we are somehow worse off because we are now exactly where we would be if we didn't set aside a month or two of food? 

Have you been drinking? 

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1 minute ago, shader said:

I hope your friend is right, but there’s no data to suggest that’s likely to be true. It’s literally impossible for someone to come up with those numbers using any data that’s out there. But hopefully their gut feeling will turn out to be accurate.

In link I posted above if you cover China excluding Wuhan area rate is like 0.5 percent. So I don’t think that is so unrealistic. 
 

 

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2 hours ago, Otis said:

Why are we assuming a large influx of new patients?? For what?  When you get the flu you stay home and drink fluids. 

On top of that, health-care capacity is not static — it can be increased dramatically especially for a focused, specific illness. The trick is that you don’t need huge architectural edifices to treat people. Field hospitals can be pressed into service as needed with some portion of non-professional staff.

No, it won’t be ideal. There will be no frills, it will be less comfortable for all involved, and regrettably ... some people will fall through the cracks. But you don’t concede 1,000 deaths in advance because you doubt you can give 100 patients near-ideal care.

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7 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

FWIW, got firsthand knowledge from the guy who isolated SARS for major pharma co. He said he doesn’t know. Virus could “slow down drastically” in the next month, or “become a major pandemic.” It doesn’t mean things will be worse or better than your guy said. If the guy I’m referencing doesn’t know, then there are just a whole lot of probabilities at this point.

I would personally say that it’s safe to assume that this thing is already a pandemic.  If there was enough test kits in the planet to actually test around the world—my guess is that the results would show that this thing is pretty much all over the place.    At this point—I think the question is—how can we and the rest of the world attempt to minimize the spread and slow it down to controllable levels?  I said it in the stock thread—some medical expert on cnbc quoted something like “don’t confuse the absence of evidence as being evidence of absence”.   

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5 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

In link I posted above if you cover China excluding Wuhan area rate is like 0.5 percent. So I don’t think that is so unrealistic. 
 

 

I don’t know why that distinction is there...but I also don’t know why anyone would exclude Wuhan. .5% seems wildly optimistic to me, but I hope to be wrong.

 

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1 hour ago, [icon] said:

So if your mom caught it and was admitted to the hospital I guess you'd just bring the grandkids up to visit her and say "Hey Mom, it's no biggie. You lived a good life. Something was probably going to get you soon anyway"? 

Grimly ... we have no control whatsoever on when Mom - or any of us - goes. I understand doing what you feel you can. It’s just that at some point, it’s out of our hands.

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2 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

I would personally say that it’s safe to assume that this thing is already a pandemic.  If there was enough test kits in the planet to actually test around the world—my guess is that the results would show that this thing is pretty much all over the place.    At this point—I think the question is—how can we and the rest of the world attempt to minimize the spread and slow it down to controllable levels?  I said it in the stock thread—some medical expert on cnbc quoted something like “don’t confuse the absence of evidence as being evidence of absence”.   

Assuming that this thing is “everywhere” seems a dangerous game to play. At some point we have to trust the numbers. Thus far the numbers coming in from across the world (outside of China) are increasing daily in a pattern that hasn’t varied much over the past 3 weeks.

 

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49 minutes ago, Otis said:

You can probably already see the several bad assumptions in this analysis.  But ok, so let’s assume 2.5% go to ICU and die. What’s that percentage for the flu?

Standard Flu: 0.015% (14.3 per 100k

COVID-19: 2.5% (in above scenario) 

Assuming 60% of Americans get it (bold assumption by Harvard guy) then deaths would be: 

Joe Flu: 27,000 Dead 

COVID19: 3.6 Million Dead 
 

Good point, GB. I didn't realize they WERE Pretty much the same thing. 

Not sure what I was thinking. :lol: 

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37 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Talked to someone who spends their whole day on this subject and they suggested that the actual mortality rate will eventually be accepted to be something between .5% and .75%.  So a lot worse than the flu, but nowhere near the 2.5-3.0% we've been hearing.

The problem is in the denominator.  Probably 60-80% of cases are resolved without ever being symptomatic or bad enough to be diagnosed formally. 

Or not.  Only time will tell for sure.

Quoted for truth. I think we can even do better than that given time.

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4 minutes ago, shader said:

Assuming that this thing is “everywhere” seems a dangerous game to play. At some point we have to trust the numbers. Thus far the numbers coming in from across the world (outside of China) are increasing daily in a pattern that hasn’t varied much over the past 3 weeks.

 

Its on every continent outside of Antarctica.   Sure—it might not be on every street corner in every city—-but when I say it’s “everywhere”—I mean virtually every country will have some exposure to it.   There is a dude that studies travel (like volume of travel) and he basically did the math and estimated that there were approximately 17 million trips to and from mainland china between the time this virus originated and the time they implemented travel restrictions.  He estimated that 5-6 million of those trips were domestic—people traveling from mainland china to other areas of china.     That leaves approximately 11-12 million trips where people came to and left china from different places in the world before the restrictions came into play.  I assure you that while many of those travelers may have come from similar parts of the world—that with that kind of volume—this thing is not just floating around a couple dozen countries.  I hope I’m wrong—but thinking otherwise would just not be mathematically probable in my opinion. Until accurate test kits become widely available all over the place—I’m not sure how reliable any of the numbers are.  Heck—here in California—doctors weren’t allowed to test for it unless somebody traveled to a high risk area—and a patient that hasn’t traveled just got confirmed with having it.  

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29 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

We assume that it probably doesn’t like warm weather—but that certainly hasn’t been 100% established yet (at least not to my knowledge).  

This assumption is based on observation of COVID’s inroads into SE Asia. It’s hypothesized that warm and humid air limits the virus’ spread.

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32 minutes ago, [icon] said:

So you're saying in your magic scenario we are somehow worse off because we are now exactly where we would be if we didn't set aside a month or two of food? 

Not at all. You’re bringing up the “setting aside food” stuff, and that’s not at issue.

”Magic scenario”? Of course I could well be wrong, but I don’t think I’ve proposed anything unrealistic. I just don’t know how one gets to the point where one feels the coast is clear, and pre-COVID life can resume.

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36 minutes ago, shader said:

I don’t know why that distinction is there...but I also don’t know why anyone would exclude Wuhan.

Because that area was caught completely flat-footed by an illness that presented like something familiar (flu, colds, etc.) and that had been spreading asymptomatically. Had the Wuhan-area health system known what they were dealing with from Day 1, far better outcomes could have been realized.

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13 hours ago, Doug B said:

Generally true, but not 100% for all people. So far as I can tell, all viral infections are that way -- 99+% have lifetime immunity after recovery (or nearly so), while the rest can be reinfected.

 Not all infections (viral or otherwise) are the same. Some evade the immune system better than others, and immunity tends to wane with time. In addition, differences in the host’s immune system impact the likelihood of reinfection.

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13 hours ago, shader said:

Not surprising that people are going to get ripped off by big pharma/medicine during this virus.

Guarantee you that drug testing companies and hospitals/clinics are licking their lips at upcoming profits. 

Hospital admin maybe, but not clinicians or staff. Also, how are people being ripped off by the pharmaceutical industry wrt COVID-19?

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11 hours ago, msommer said:

Exactly. Even for severe cases is there anything to do other than hydration and cooling ? Once you get pneumonia (or other bacterial infections), different story, but also more treatment options.

ICU care for severe COVID cases might include mechanical ventilation, vasopressor medications to maintain blood pressure, ECMO (basically a heart-lung bypass machine) and dialysis. But probably more importantly, 1:1. nursing care, which already is in short supply in larger hospitals in winter.

ETA And you’d ideally want private, airborne isolation rooms for all these patients.

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10 hours ago, [icon] said:

We've been around this ferris wheel several times in here.

Facts:

  • The CDC absolutely DOES recommend masks as a tool to effectively reduce infection for healthcare workers.
  • The masks do NOT magically stop reducing risk of infection once you leave the grounds of a hospital. 
  • The masks are NOT recommended for the public because normal folks GENERALLY aren't in close enough proximity to the infected to need them. 
  • Being in an airport is significantly higher risk area than normal day to day life, with a substantially higher risk of exposure for most. 

 

 

Your points are fairly accurate, but I don’t think airport interactions in any way approximate those experienced by healthcare providers. FWIW, I flew domestically last week, and will do so again in 3 weeks. I didn’t wear a mask in the airport before, and don’t plan on doing so next month. In contrast, I’ve been wearing masks with most (not all) patient encounters.

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