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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)

I live in a metro area of about 500k around a city of about 250k in Missouri.  We are pretty spread out here but have had 94 cases and 7 deaths (5 in the same nursing care facility).

I'd really be surprised if me or my family get the virus in this wave.  The city is shut down and we aren't exactly packed in a tight area.  We are practicing social distancing and forgoing any unnecessary gatherings.  I still go to work (construction) and my wife is a 2nd grade teacher.

However, I could see it rapidly expanding even here if an all-clear is given.  We are still touch and go as a nation and will be until a vaccine is distributed.
to compare, I live in a county with 375k population.  we have 187 confirmed cases.  3 deaths.  Everyone is wearing masks and for the most part i dont see anyone not social distancing.  

if we go into May and these numbers stay at this level its going to be hard to convince people we need to do this until there is a vaccine or even another month.

 Hell, there are people wanting things back open right now.  I dont agree with that.  but i dont think it spread like they thought it might 5 weeks ago.

 
I'm a mutated something or other scientist.

To be more precise, I believe that some sports may be ok to go on.  Those with little contact -golf, baseball, tennis, Nascar.  Those that require close physical contact like football, soccer, basketball, hockey, etc. likely won't be able to continue under these circumstances. 
I think for all of them, it's going to be easy enough (by then) to test all of the athletes, and I'd guess that will be mandatory. Now playing in front of any kind of fans is another story. Only mass testing and antibody testing is going to bring that back, IMO. 

 
People refused a test are resorting to showing up at hospitals, removing their masks, then coughing on medical staff.  It's a surefire way to get a test, and a bed for the night.  Just saw some 30 year old do it on my local news.
We had a local guy cough in someone's face at a Lowes here.  He was arrested for aggravated assault :mellow:   

 
Sacrificing myself on the altar of the doomers who never question a doctor/scientist (even though the Trump they hate is following his dictates):

Maybe the predictor has a motive to make sure he doesn't look like an idiot?  Maybe he was wrong all along but can't cop to it? (he/they, he/they)

Maybe we shouldn't have shut down civilization?  Maybe we should have gone about our lives wearing masks/distancing/wearing gloves and elderly/compromised should have sheltered all along?  Maybe models wouldn't have been so wrong and the same number of people would have been as sick and the same number of people would have died and we wouldn't have been in The Great Depression 2.0?  Maybe.

Slaughter me, doomers.
I dont really understand how you reconcile the first part of this with what is happening in New York and not sure how a predictor could have an effect on that, but the bold is spot on. 

There has been a push by the "experts" and the media to turn this disease into an equal opportunity destroyer of all age groups and conditions.

It isnt.

There are countless articles where doctors make statements purporting it as such. Politicians, the media, same same. 

I am sure everybody involved in such a concerted effort thinks that this is the best way to get everybody to go along with the rules, but unfortunately this approach has caused the message to not reach the people it most needs to.  

I am reading some of the dumbest things in some of these articles. Black people thinking they are immune because of wacka flacka. Old people thinking it is no big deal, which of course cant be because all the talk of death rates lumps everybody together. The main focus should be about the extremely high risks to certain groups and how to fight those risks. Instead we constantly focus on the younger cases( which sometimes arent even actual covid cases or like the hartford infant not the cause of death). 

 
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Over here in The Netherlands the statistics continue to indicate positive things. New cases continue to decrease and today we had the lowest amount reported in a week (964). The number of new deaths reported today (86) is the lowest since 26 March. The number of people needing to be admitted to the hospital was only 147 yesterday. Available ICU beds in the country are well over 1000. Yesterday was Easter and this may have some effect on the reported numbers. We'll see tomorrow.

The distancing measures remain in effect. Later in the week there will be more known about the plans re: re-opening things.

 
This is exactly why I posted the stuff about Wyoming.  The Wyomites (yeah, I just made that up) practice social distancing without even trying.
you are close - it's Wyomingites.

It's mostly true that Wyoming mostly self-isolates anyways.  Space is something that is valued - a source of pride.  Wyomingites hate HATE crowds, traffic, etc.  That's why you move to a place like Wyoming. 

Here's the problem: Cheyenne  and Laramie are decent sized towns at ~60k and ~30k, located just a few miles from the Colorado border.  As soon as you open Wyoming back up, there will be a flood of green license plates coming up I-25 into Cheyenne and US287 into Laramie for shopping, recreating, etc.  Now, the good folks of Wyoming could certainly use the money (it's usually the other way - Wyomingites do their shopping in Colorado), but the Coloradans will bring something else besides money...and then we are right back where we were.

I suppose you could keep Albany and Laramie Counties locked down as well.  That's probably workable.  populationwise, those two counties are 23% of the state, so the remiaining 77% would be good to go.  That would be a tough sell though as per capita, those two counties have relatively low numbers (0.06% in Laramie county, 0.01% in Albany county).

 
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more than you want to know about animal testing, but explains How the Bronx Zoo Tiger Got Tested So Quickly

tl;dr = it was a test designed specifically for animals, it didn't take a test away from a human

money quote:

The veterinary diagnosticians involved are quick to point out that the tests for the tiger were developed specifically in their labs to use on animals, so Nadia was not given a test meant for a human. And while it’s an unexpected development, the tiger’s infection is relevant for scientists trying to understand Covid-19. “Since the beginning, we’ve known that this is a disease that started off in animals and spilled over to people,” says Casey Barton Behravesh, the director of the One Health office for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases. “It'll be important for people working on human health and animal health issues to exchange information.”

 
That's 18 months, at best case for a vaccine. At best case. How long before there are 300 million+ vaccines for just the US and Billions for world wide use?
And what exactly will it do?  Not all vaccines are foolproof.  Knocking 30% off the chance you contract COVID and shortening the course of the disease by a couple days isn't nothing but it wouldn't fill you with confidence either. 

 
‘If everything breaks just right’ is the key. SARS is the most comparable virus and they never successfully produced a vaccine. September is a dream date suggested by a researching hoping to get resources put behind her effort. The true best case scenario is December or January with March being more realistic.
So September is a dream date, best case December or January. And you know this how?

 
I am reading some of the dumbest things in some of these articles. Black people thinking they are immune because of wacka flacka. 
this might be the most ridiculous quote i've seen yet thru this whole affair, young lady quoted from above article:

"First I heard black people weren't affected by the coronavirus. I mean there aren't really black people in China and when it started here it was a lot of other races affected"

but then i read this, which gives the above a run for it's money:

 In mid-March, Atlanta rapper Waka Flocka appeared on a radio show and said: "Minorities can't catch coronavirus. Name one. It doesn't touch them soul food folks."

:unsure:

 
So September is a dream date, best case December or January. And you know this how?
The email I got from Morgan Stanley a week or so ago had some loose predictions on the future course of the pandemic.  They admitted that this was to some extent guesswork.  They had vaccine going to health care professionals and first responders in the fall (6 months), and general population in the spring (12 months).  Seems optimistic, but I believe that was their base case.  (I'm also not sure I want the healthcare pros being the guinea pigs for a vaccine, but one would assume that safety studies would be pretty far along in 6 months)

I think they also had a winter CV surge about half as bad as what we are going through right now.

You'd think the financial types would try to get the predictions right, so there was probably some wisdom in it, but who really knows?

 
Nah.  It's ok to be skeptical.  You should be.  We all should be.

But, if you are going to accuse some of the most respected people in the field of mishandling this and causing trillions of dollars worth of damage to the economy, I'd hope you have proof. 
I'd settle for evidence based on common scientific practice...I don't even need proof.

 
The email I got from Morgan Stanley a week or so ago had some loose predictions on the future course of the pandemic.  They admitted that this was to some extent guesswork.  They had vaccine going to health care professionals and first responders in the fall (6 months), and general population in the spring (12 months).  Seems optimistic, but I believe that was their base case.  (I'm also not sure I want the healthcare pros being the guinea pigs for a vaccine, but one would assume that safety studies would be pretty far along in 6 months)

I think they also had a winter CV surge about half as bad as what we are going through right now.

You'd think the financial types would try to get the predictions right, so there was probably some wisdom in it, but who really knows?
I think we are definitely at the "now what?" stage of this.  I don't think anyone has a clue what the next 12 months hold.

 
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Time for Tofurky, Field Roast and Trader Joe's soy chorizo to make a move and get market share of the protein market in the USA: 'Elbow to elbow:' North America meat plant workers fall ill, walk off jobs
Just to dog pile on humanity during the year of our very own 10 plagues of Egypt: https://newschannel9.com/news/nation-world/more-than-32000-turkeys-euthanized-after-deadly-bird-flu-found-in-south-carolina-flock 

I think we are definitely at the "now what?" stage of this.  I don't think anyone has a clue what the next 12 months hold.
Yea and that's kinda scary because left to our own devices, people are going to go outside and congregate as the weather gets nice. It would happen anyhow but at least with some plan in place from upper management, a good portion of the public would acquiesce. With just a never ending, "well, let's give it another two weeks" current plan, people are going to bolt soon.

 
Watching the news with wife last night.  Weatherman says widespread power outages today due to high winds.  We are on well water, so wife decides to shower at 2 in the morning.  She is ####faced and five minutes later... BAM!  I run in and she is flat on her back in the tub.  Can't wait to see how she feels when she wakes up.

 
Poor Mississippi. Tornado hit there. 3 dead so far.
Chattanooga hit as well.

Just awful...as bad as it was here in middle Tennessee...and it was bad...hard to say it, but fortunate it hit here at a time when people were able to get out and just help other people.  It was right at the very beginning and nobody hesitated to go where help was needed.  Im hoping people gear up and get out and can help in those areas now.

 
The email I got from Morgan Stanley a week or so ago had some loose predictions on the future course of the pandemic.  They admitted that this was to some extent guesswork.  They had vaccine going to health care professionals and first responders in the fall (6 months), and general population in the spring (12 months).  Seems optimistic, but I believe that was their base case.  (I'm also not sure I want the healthcare pros being the guinea pigs for a vaccine, but one would assume that safety studies would be pretty far along in 6 months)

I think they also had a winter CV surge about half as bad as what we are going through right now.

You'd think the financial types would try to get the predictions right, so there was probably some wisdom in it, but who really knows?
Along those lines, the stock market has seemed to stabilized a bit. Dow was down close to 30% this year, now only about 18%. Hope they know stuff that we don't.

 
Can anyone summarize/condense the last few days worth of COVID-19 news for me here?  What countries/cities are doing well, who's doing poorly, who's trending in the right direction, who isn't, updates on any expected returns to pseudo-normalcy?  Honestly, I've kinda burned out and zoned out on the news on this, just looking for a quick recap summary.  Alternately, if there's a good daily summary resource that you're using, I can use that instead.

 
i dont see why a zoo with that kind of funding cant test it on its own.


more than you want to know about animal testing, but explains How the Bronx Zoo Tiger Got Tested So Quickly

tl;dr = it was a test designed specifically for animals, it didn't take a test away from a human

money quote:

The veterinary diagnosticians involved are quick to point out that the tests for the tiger were developed specifically in their labs to use on animals, so Nadia was not given a test meant for a human. And while it’s an unexpected development, the tiger’s infection is relevant for scientists trying to understand Covid-19. “Since the beginning, we’ve known that this is a disease that started off in animals and spilled over to people,” says Casey Barton Behravesh, the director of the One Health office for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases. “It'll be important for people working on human health and animal health issues to exchange information.”
This one seemed pretty obvious but people really wanted to be outraged about this.

 
I have a question and apologies if this is already talked about; the thread is huge. Did you guys do Easter stuff for your kids yesterday? We told our 4 year old that the Easter Bunny couldn't come this year because of the virus. We are in the Philly area and following all the protocols (stay at home) and did not deem going out to the store to buy Easter candy and dollar toys a necessity. My wife tried to order some things on Amazon but due to their prioritization, the delivery dates were way after Easter and she gave up. We haven't been able to schedule an instacart delivery in weeks and we are living off of what we have in the pantry. We also didn't dye eggs because they are a scarce commodity and we only have about a dozen and a half left and didn't want to "waste" them. My daughter completely understood until we got on her online Pre-K class this morning and all the kids were talking about their Easter baskets and how one family went to South Jersey for an Easter egg hunt (WTF????????????). Instant tears but we are getting through it and my wife is now thinking of going to CVS to buy her some candy. I'm just a bit gobsmacked because I am wondering if we are the only weirdos holed up in our house and everyone else is out there living like normal. 

 
Can anyone summarize/condense the last few days worth of COVID-19 news for me here?  What countries/cities are doing well, who's doing poorly, who's trending in the right direction, who isn't, updates on any expected returns to pseudo-normalcy?  Honestly, I've kinda burned out and zoned out on the news on this, just looking for a quick recap summary.  Alternately, if there's a good daily summary resource that you're using, I can use that instead.
Well, let's see. First the earth cooled. And then the dinosaurs came, but they got too big and fat, so they all died and they turned into oil. And then the Arabs came and they bought Mercedes Benzes. And Prince Charles started wearing all of Lady Di's clothes. I couldn't believe it

 
I have a question and apologies if this is already talked about; the thread is huge. Did you guys do Easter stuff for your kids yesterday? We told our 4 year old that the Easter Bunny couldn't come this year because of the virus. We are in the Philly area and following all the protocols (stay at home) and did not deem going out to the store to buy Easter candy and dollar toys a necessity. My wife tried to order some things on Amazon but due to their prioritization, the delivery dates were way after Easter and she gave up. We haven't been able to schedule an instacart delivery in weeks and we are living off of what we have in the pantry. We also didn't dye eggs because they are a scarce commodity and we only have about a dozen and a half left and didn't want to "waste" them. My daughter completely understood until we got on her online Pre-K class this morning and all the kids were talking about their Easter baskets and how one family went to South Jersey for an Easter egg hunt (WTF????????????). Instant tears but we are getting through it and my wife is now thinking of going to CVS to buy her some candy. I'm just a bit gobsmacked because I am wondering if we are the only weirdos holed up in our house and everyone else is out there living like normal. 
We were able to buy a few bags of candy (delivered to our house by target).  Already had the eggs and baskets from last year.  Our backyard is big enough so we did the easter egg hunt there (sans Easter Bunny who my 5 year old sun doesn't believe in anyways).  They had a lot of fun even though it was just the 4 of us.  

 
we have reusable plastic eggs that we just put some random #### in every year. some lego minifigures, a dollar bill, some quarters, candy, etc.  so this shut in didn't really affect our Easter at all. just made sure to get stuff delivered last week rather than go to store to grab it

 
Where do we draw the line on hazard pay?  Almost everyone not working from home deserves it at this point, but is that feasible?

 
This one seemed pretty obvious but people really wanted to be outraged about this.
Outrage definitely overboard but, IDK, I think the questions were at least a little warranted. I knew zero about animal testing and how all that worked. So you see a headline that says "Tiger tests positive" and you don't intrinsically know that animal tests differ from human tests, then I can see how it would raise eyebrows. I know it did for me. 

 
Along those lines, the stock market has seemed to stabilized a bit. Dow was down close to 30% this year, now only about 18%. Hope they know stuff that we don't.
Well, along those lines.

Market is apparently falling today because someone is concerned (again) about lower earnings ahead.....

 
Watching the news with wife last night.  Weatherman says widespread power outages today due to high winds.  We are on well water, so wife decides to shower at 2 in the morning.  She is ####faced and five minutes later... BAM!  I run in and she is flat on her back in the tub.  Can't wait to see how she feels when she wakes up.
Wait - she was drunk watching the news at 2am, got in the shower and then fell?

 
I have a question and apologies if this is already talked about; the thread is huge. Did you guys do Easter stuff for your kids yesterday? We told our 4 year old that the Easter Bunny couldn't come this year because of the virus. We are in the Philly area and following all the protocols (stay at home) and did not deem going out to the store to buy Easter candy and dollar toys a necessity. My wife tried to order some things on Amazon but due to their prioritization, the delivery dates were way after Easter and she gave up. We haven't been able to schedule an instacart delivery in weeks and we are living off of what we have in the pantry. We also didn't dye eggs because they are a scarce commodity and we only have about a dozen and a half left and didn't want to "waste" them. My daughter completely understood until we got on her online Pre-K class this morning and all the kids were talking about their Easter baskets and how one family went to South Jersey for an Easter egg hunt (WTF????????????). Instant tears but we are getting through it and my wife is now thinking of going to CVS to buy her some candy. I'm just a bit gobsmacked because I am wondering if we are the only weirdos holed up in our house and everyone else is out there living like normal. 
We did easter kids stuff at our house by buying some candy online and getting delivered (not sure where wife bought them).  We also boiled a dozen eggs to do the dying stuff.  Kids were disappointed that they got to do only four eggs each but we had kind of buying extra eggs up in bunches so we could even do a dozen.  We will also eat the hard boiled eggs so not really wasting them.  Used baskets from prior years as well as plastic eggs from prior years to do a hunt in back yard.  

 
Has anyone seen the study this article is talking about? 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-macron-doctor/macron-visits-marseille-doctor-working-on-covid-19-drug-touted-by-trump-idUSKCN21R36R

According to Les Echos newspaper, Raoult gave Macron the results of a new study on 1,061 patients showing a 91 percent success rate.
This was supposedly last week when they met. Seems that would be significant, pending the conditions and guidelines of the trial, of course. 

 
Has anyone seen the study this article is talking about? 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-macron-doctor/macron-visits-marseille-doctor-working-on-covid-19-drug-touted-by-trump-idUSKCN21R36R

This was supposedly last week when they met. Seems that would be significant, pending the conditions and guidelines of the trial, of course. 
wife's french news talks about this guy steadily, and the hydroxychloroquine remedy originated out of france as well (i believe, could be wrong), and been discussed for several weeks (before we got it over here)

basically, nothing. they dont know. it's one of several dozen potential "cures"

 
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I have a question and apologies if this is already talked about; the thread is huge. Did you guys do Easter stuff for your kids yesterday? We told our 4 year old that the Easter Bunny couldn't come this year because of the virus. We are in the Philly area and following all the protocols (stay at home) and did not deem going out to the store to buy Easter candy and dollar toys a necessity ... My daughter completely understood until we got on her online Pre-K class this morning and all the kids were talking about their Easter baskets and how one family went to South Jersey for an Easter egg hunt (WTF????????????). Instant tears but we are getting through it and my wife is now thinking of going to CVS to buy her some candy. I'm just a bit gobsmacked because I am wondering if we are the only weirdos holed up in our house and everyone else is out there living like normal. 
It's not weird one way or the other. Personal risk tolerance comes into play, along with local conditions (e.g. are stores packed, or 1/4 full at best?).

For me, I have few concerns about going to local grocery stores, dollar stores, etc. so long as (a) I've got my mask and hand sanitizer with me, and (b) the store is slow enough to make social distancing easy. Accordingly, I was able to safely get Easter candy, extra eggs to dye with last year's leftover coloring, and things to cook a scaled-down Easter dinner for the four of us. My kids are teenagers now, but we still enjoy getting them (and us) some Easter candy to wake up to.

I will say that more and more people are going shopping more and more often. I went off-peak hours to one place (early weekday afternoon) and was able to waltz in even though they had shopper-capacity warnings and I could tell they had set up for a morning line-up of people outside. When I went in -- no line, no issue just walking in. When I left -- line of about 20 people waiting to get in, and growing.

 
Has anyone seen the study this article is talking about? 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-macron-doctor/macron-visits-marseille-doctor-working-on-covid-19-drug-touted-by-trump-idUSKCN21R36R

This was supposedly last week when they met. Seems that would be significant, pending the conditions and guidelines of the trial, of course. 
This is the most important point to consider.  This doctor has already had his first findings unpublished due to problems with the way it was conducted.

 
Has anyone seen the study this article is talking about? 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-macron-doctor/macron-visits-marseille-doctor-working-on-covid-19-drug-touted-by-trump-idUSKCN21R36R

This was supposedly last week when they met. Seems that would be significant, pending the conditions and guidelines of the trial, of course. 
This is the most important point to consider.  This doctor has already had his first findings unpublished due to problems with the way it was conducted.
Everyone: read Nathan's link closely. Mid-point of the article:

[Dr. Didier Raoult's] research team has published data showing that out of 80 mild COVID-19 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, 93 percent had no detectable levels of the virus after eight days.

Doctors have questioned the value of the Marseille study and several papers from China on the same treatment as being too small or poorly designed to offer hard evidence of benefit.

Most do not compare outcomes of patients who received the malaria therapies with people who did not, considered the most reliable measure of a drug’s effectiveness.

Last week, doctors in Paris reported that they tried to replicate the results of the Marseille study and failed.

 
I get it. Just wanted to pass along caution. I hope she gets to spend time with you and the family and it does sound safe. Think it all through for the trip over and make it extra safe. 75 deserves a break from the stress of this mess. Hope it happens and will love to hear how it turned out. 
Update: my mom called me Saturday morning crying. Said she just doesn’t want to break her bubble and hey, we were ok with that! We were doing it for her. She said she knows if she gets this she is going to die and just doesn’t want to chance anything.
 

So we made her a few giant plates of Easter leftovers and the pulled pork I smoked Saturday, left it at the end of the driveway and we did the 15 foot chat out there yesterday. 

 
the legacy created via a vaccine is so immense that you can bet any/every doctor/school/hospital will be trying to be the one.

it will also create a lot of fraudsters. 

 
Well, let's see. First the earth cooled. And then the dinosaurs came, but they got too big and fat, so they all died and they turned into oil. And then the Arabs came and they bought Mercedes Benzes. And Prince Charles started wearing all of Lady Di's clothes. I couldn't believe it
That last part is patently false. All of Di's clothes are in museums  :rolleyes:

Outrage definitely overboard but, IDK, I think the questions were at least a little warranted. I knew zero about animal testing and how all that worked. So you see a headline that says "Tiger tests positive" and you don't intrinsically know that animal tests differ from human tests, then I can see how it would raise eyebrows. I know it did for me. 
Did for me too, think I even posted the question in this thread when it happened. Learned pretty quickly it was an animal specific test. Didn't realize the zoo designed it. Good on them.

 
Interesting article on the challenges with opening sports, even without fans:

https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/04/10/sports-arent-coming-back-soon
This is a must-read for anyone following COVID-19 and the anticipated resumption of 'normal' society. An impactful excerpt:

But there are a million ways the Jenga stack could fall: What if the person delivering groceries to the biodome walks by someone who coughs on the lettuce and a week later, a player tests positive? Is there an option other than shutting down the whole operation for 14 days?

“No,” says Bergstrom.

And that’s really the end of the conversation. Even if we can start this, we almost certainly can’t finish it. Just look at South Korea and Japan, which both believed they had the outbreak under control and have since pushed back the start dates of their professional baseball seasons. In response to ESPN's reporting on the MLB biodome scenario this week, former Medicare and Medicaid head Andy Slavitt tweeted, “I’m as big a sports fan as anybody, but this is reckless. Leagues need to follow the science & do the right thing.”

The leagues know how farfetched their ideas are. So do the players’ unions. They continue to explore options because they would be remiss not to. But fans should understand how unlikely this all is.

No one wants to acknowledge how far we are from ordinary life, says Kimberley Miner, a professor at the University of Maine who develops risk assessment for the U.S. Army. “It’s hard to stomach a lot of this information, so it’s not being widely shared,” she explains.

 

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