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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

Meanwhile the next county over that borders the Gulf...

@wusf: Pinellas County commissioners will consider easing beach restrictions at this Thursday’s meeting. 

But before that, they want to talk with Sheriff Bob Gualtieri as his deputies would have to enforce social distancing if the restrictions are eased.

https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/post/pinellas-commissioners-consider-easing-beach-restrictions

.
Not sure this is a good idea, but I hope people do the right thing (even Floridians)

 
Yep, i am fine with this. I love being with my wife, daughter and cat all day. Knowing we are safe is priceless. I like opening a beer at 3:00 pm on a Monday. I have prepared a bunch of new foods. There is nothing I cannot get on-line. I am not on a good sleep routine because of this schedule change, but that will come.I could do this for a long, long time. 
Nice.  Kind of the same story here.  Confirmed my wife and I are a good pandemic pair.  Got the work system setup so it's even better than being in the office and they'll give me as much work as I can take on for the foreseeable future.  Made french bread from scratch...a little "doughier" than I like it, but not bad for the first time.  I'm ready to follow shelter in place as long as they need me to.

 
Talked to my wife about this a few days ago.  She's a total introvert, totally cool with chillin' at the house... taking long baths... having a cocktail... reading... watching Netflix...

Not me.

I need to be out and about.  I can't tell you how much I miss sitting on a barstool, watching football or basketball or hell even baseball... cold beer in front of me.  A few people around to chat it up with.  

Definitely miss being able to hang out with my parents, and having them around our kids.  

So yeah, this sucks.  I've about had enough of it.  No sports, no in-person interaction.  I love my family to death but I am going crazy.

 
On a side note I would like to point out that that CDC link mentions ventilation systems twice and somebody gave me a tin foil hat when I brought up the ventilation at Biogen. 
Keep in mind that the CDC page linked gave advice geared to households -- the part about 'ventilation' is specific to the room housing a known COVID-19 patient:

It is unknown how long the air inside a room occupied by someone with confirmed COVID-19 remains potentially infectious. Facilities will need to consider factors such as the size of the room and the ventilation system design (including flowrate [air changes per hour] and location of supply and exhaust vents) when deciding how long to close off rooms or areas used by ill persons before beginning disinfection.  Taking measures to improve ventilation in an area or room where someone was ill or suspected to be ill with COVID-19 will help shorten the time it takes respiratory droplets to be removed from the air.
IMHO, they're doing something of an 'abundance of caution' thing when they get into 'infectious air' and such. I didn't think the evidence for air remaining infectious due to floating microscopic aerosol droplets was all that compelling -- but maybe that's my own tin foil hat showing.

 
Nice.  Kind of the same story here.  Confirmed my wife and I are a good pandemic pair.  Got the work system setup so it's even better than being in the office and they'll give me as much work as I can take on for the foreseeable future.  Made french bread from scratch...a little "doughier" than I like it, but not bad for the first time.  I'm ready to follow shelter in place as long as they need me to.
Similar story here. My wife and I run a business that went from 75% at home to now 95% at home so it hasn't been much of an adjustment at all. What really has been great though is all the extra time I've had with my 1 year old daughter. Instead of dad being just feet away but glued to a computer, I get to chase her around the house and make her laugh all throughout the day and night.

I could quarantine like this for an indefinite period. An all time record month of March means the pocketbook is healthier than ever. My personal situation doesn't mean I enjoy watching people's lives shattered over misguided blanket solutions though. That's for those who might wonder why I'm so anti-shut down.

 
Made a run to store(s) today here in twin cities. I would guess less than 25% of customers had masks. And strangely, or frighteningly similar number for workers. People did decent job keeping distance though. 

Also, pretty well stocked aisle of TP

 
Someone pointed out Drizly to me on another forum, but unfortunately for me, there's no same day delivery for my location. Oh well, I'll keep up with it going forward.
I don't think Drizly does same day delivery.   At least they don't do it anywhere around here.

 
A steady day at covid worldometers.  Total cases hanging just under 70,000 (back at the level of a week ago or so); deaths of about 5,300 a little below yesterday's figure. India doesn't show the big jump @Tolstoy mentioned, for whatever reason.  Russia new cases still climbing quickly (~15%); Peru very quickly (~33%) ...both with more new cases than Germany (and they're approaching Spain and Italy).  India does show growth over 10% while Bangladesh still rapidly increasing at around 25%.  As a region, the middle east (Saudi Arabia, et al) have been having growth in new cases of about 10-20%.  So shifting worldwide dynamics, but overall trend is holding at linear levels.

 
A steady day at covid worldometers.  Total cases hanging just under 70,000 (back at the level of a week ago or so); deaths of about 5,300 a little below yesterday's figure. India doesn't show the big jump @Tolstoy mentioned, for whatever reason.  Russia new cases still climbing quickly (~15%); Peru very quickly (~33%) ...both with more new cases than Germany (and they're approaching Spain and Italy).  India does show growth over 10% while Bangladesh still rapidly increasing at around 25%.  As a region, the middle east (Saudi Arabia, et al) have been having growth in new cases of about 10-20%.  So shifting worldwide dynamics, but overall trend is holding at linear levels.
I have seen Sunday/Monday numbers are generally lower than rest of week since they involve reporting for prior day (the weekend).  I would suspect world numbers go up a bit tomorrow.  Hope I am wrong though and numbers can trend down to 70k.

 
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Made a run to store(s) today here in twin cities. I would guess less than 25% of customers had masks. And strangely, or frighteningly similar number for workers. People did decent job keeping distance though. 

Also, pretty well stocked aisle of TP
This has been my experience in the SW metro of the Twin Cities as well. Most poeple do try to keep some distance from each other but approx. 25% observe no distancing at all....either oblivious or flubros. I'm actually shocked that at grocery stores the employees are not all wearing masks. I know that at one local chain grocer, they are "allowing" their employees to wear a mask but not requiring it for fear of "scaring" customers. Ludicrous.

 
Someone pointed out Drizly to me on another forum, but unfortunately for me, there's no same day delivery for my location. Oh well, I'll keep up with it going forward.
I've found several local liquor stores willing to do curbside. I tell them to put it in the back of the truck where the payment is awaiting.

eta- much cheaper than using third party services and their high fees and markups.

 
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Talked to my wife about this a few days ago.  She's a total introvert, totally cool with chillin' at the house... taking long baths... having a cocktail... reading... watching Netflix...

Not me.

I need to be out and about.  I can't tell you how much I miss sitting on a barstool, watching football or basketball or hell even baseball... cold beer in front of me.  A few people around to chat it up with.  

Definitely miss being able to hang out with my parents, and having them around our kids.  

So yeah, this sucks.  I've about had enough of it.  No sports, no in-person interaction.  I love my family to death but I am going crazy.
Similar story here.  My girl is an introvert, and as long as she has chardonnay, some candy crush-type game, and plenty of things on the DVR/Netflix queue she's good indefinitely.  

Me - I run errands sometimes just to get out of the house for a bit.  Now, it's just walking the dog a couple of times a day and a somewhat stressful trip to the store every two weeks.  Hell I sat out in my driveway last Friday evening with my dog and a cocktail, just hoping some people would walk by I could say hi to.  

 
Nice.  Kind of the same story here.  Confirmed my wife and I are a good pandemic pair.  Got the work system setup so it's even better than being in the office and they'll give me as much work as I can take on for the foreseeable future.  Made french bread from scratch...a little "doughier" than I like it, but not bad for the first time.  I'm ready to follow shelter in place as long as they need me to.
If you don't have a steam injected oven to get the perfect crust, I've had luck using a spray bottle filled with water during cooking. Open the door, pretend its a misbehaving cat and wet it down a couple times during the cook.

 
Florida new cases and deaths by day - COVID19 in-patients at Jackson Health in Miami

4/3 - 1260 , 26 - 94

4/4 - 1277,  25 - 111

4/5-  805,  26 - 125

4/6 - 1279, 33 - 125

4/7 - 1118, 42 - 140

4/8 - 951,  27 - 136

4/9 - 1128, 48 - 148

4/10 - 1142, 48  - 149

4/11 - 1018, 27 - 163

4/12 - 969, 15 - 161 

4/13 - 1124, 38 

More of the plateau

 
another early study not encouraging for hydroxycholorquine as treatment :(  

https://www.newser.com/story/289474/troubling-signs-in-2-drugs-touted-by-trump-for-virus.html (note: the title mentions Trump but the article isn't political in nature, other than saying it's the drugs that he had touted.. notenote: the original study is in French but you can translate to English and it reads easily enough)

a review by France's drug safety regulator turned up 43 "cardiac adverse effects" in COVID-19 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, typically used to treat malaria. The agency reported 100 total cases of adverse reactions in patients treated with experimental drugs—82 of them serious, including four deaths—though only about half of these incidents were tied to hydroxycloroquine; the other half were linked to lopinavir-ritonavir, which is used to treat HIV. Meanwhile, a small study out of Brazil has been brought to a halt after patients given a higher dose of chloroquine, also used to treat malaria, developed heart arrhythmias, per the New York Times.

 
This has been my experience in the SW metro of the Twin Cities as well. Most poeple do try to keep some distance from each other but approx. 25% observe no distancing at all....either oblivious or flubros. I'm actually shocked that at grocery stores the employees are not all wearing masks. I know that at one local chain grocer, they are "allowing" their employees to wear a mask but not requiring it for fear of "scaring" customers. Ludicrous.
Where are you?  I’m about to run out to the Cub in EP. 

 
Andy Dufresne said:
How long until an introvert gets bored and is ready to go back into the world again?

Apparently the answer is "one month".
Now that WFH feels a little more routine, I think I could do this for a very long time.  Netflix, Amazon, and YouTube are all great.  I'm getting concerned about video game delays, but I like replaying old games so I'm fine there.  And I've wanted to do some more reading for a while now.  

I can see where this is going to drive people literally crazy though.  My dad is handling this situation extremely poorly -- he and I are the opposite in the sense that he can't sit still and just relax, and he is getting very antsy about when things will open up again.  More generally, this has to be hell on extroverts.  I imagine a hypothetical pandemic that required people to live with a group of 20 strangers for an extended period of time in close quarters, and I would be willing to take my chances with the virus by the end of week one.

 
Statorama said:
Those touchless thermometers are going to be a Godsend.  I can picture an old guy acting like a Walmart greeter at the entrance of our office just scanning foreheads and giving 'go or stop' instructions.
My employer is still open as an essential business, and that's exactly what they've gone to.  Before they were telling people to take their temperature at home, now they are scanning everyone to verify that you can enter the building.

 
My employer is still open as an essential business, and that's exactly what they've gone to.  Before they were telling people to take their temperature at home, now they are scanning everyone to verify that you can enter the building.
I understand the thought behind this but why even bother? If a certain percentage of people are asymptotic, why bother? A temperature doesn’t mean Corona. A perfectly fine temp doesn’t mean they’re not infected. 

 
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Mr Anonymous said:
False Negatives Raise Doctors' Doubts About Coronavirus Tests

Kinda puts in question ALL of the data we're working off of, doesn't it?

Including those "case closed" studies saying there's no way this appeared earlier than the official record tells us.

Yes, you read that right. If if you test negative right now with active symptoms, you're still being counted as a Covid-19 case. But if the tests done today on patients with mysterious cases of something back in December and January come back negative, there's no way they had this. Yeah, ok sure.
To clarify:

The most commonly used tests for COVID 19 have a false negative rate around 30%.

IF you have signs and symptoms compatible with COVID 19, and no alternative diagnosis seems likely, you will be isolated and treated like COVID 19. A second test will be sent as well.

IF your second test is negative and an alternative diagnosis remains unlikely, a third COVID test may be sent - math tells us the likelihood of two false negatives is still 9%. But more often than not, clinicians will be satisfied that two negative tests rules it out.

I am personally aware of a patient who had three negative tests before the fourth was positive. At that point, one has to wonder about the quality of the first three tests, and consider the possibility the fourth was a false positive.

Phylogenetic analysis of viral strains, testing done in WA and the absence of a spike in severe pneumonia/ARDS cases earlier this year strongly argue against the virus being in the US much earlier than Jan. 

People under investigation for COVID 19 are treated as positive for the purpose of infection control, but TMK only lab documented cases get tallied in the actual case numbers.

 
another early study not encouraging for hydroxycholorquine as treatment :(  

https://www.newser.com/story/289474/troubling-signs-in-2-drugs-touted-by-trump-for-virus.html (note: the title mentions Trump but the article isn't political in nature, other than saying it's the drugs that he had touted.. notenote: the original study is in French but you can translate to English and it reads easily enough)
Between this, the reports of reinfections (or reactivations) in Korea, and the stories of researchers never succeeding at developing a SARS vaccine (the closest analog to COVID) the news just doesn't seem to be good at all on the medical front.

Any good stories out there besides bending the curve?  That one is just a delaying tactic in this fight - we either need a killer therapeutic or a vaccine to get us to herd immunity.  I'm discounting the "getting to herd immunity the natural way" - that would be painful on civilization.

 
Cant remember if I posted this or not, but I noticed an uptick a week or so ago in traffic.  Now granted, I rarely leave the house so this is 100% anecdotal.

I live in Tennessee and our daily increase numbers have been slowly dropping. Today we went back over 300 a day for the first time in awhile.  Hopefully just a Monday bump, but I’ll be paying close attention tomorrow.

There seems to be this idea that the second wave comes in the fall.  But really it come could a week or two after the lockdowns end.

 
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I understand the thought behind this but why even bother? If a certain percentage of people are asymptotic, why bother? A temperature doesn’t mean Corona. A perfectly fine temp doesn’t mean they’re not infected. 
I hear you, and at some level it does seem a bit like security theater or CYA.  But on the other hand, I think it does send the message that anyone who's not feeling right shouldn't chance going to work, and also wouldn't presumably people who are more symptomatic be shedding higher quantities of virus?  So there's a chance it does help a little bit at least.

 
Florida new cases and deaths by day - COVID19 in-patients at Jackson Health in Miami

4/3 - 1260 , 26 - 94

4/4 - 1277,  25 - 111

4/5-  805,  26 - 125

4/6 - 1279, 33 - 125

4/7 - 1118, 42 - 140

4/8 - 951,  27 - 136

4/9 - 1128, 48 - 148

4/10 - 1142, 48  - 149

4/11 - 1018, 27 - 163

4/12 - 969, 15 - 161 

4/13 - 1124, 38 - 167

More of the plateau
Slight increase in the numbers at Jackson hospital. Could be a plateau.

Camilla Cabello and Shawn Mendes sent a bunch of Cuban sandwiches to Jackson Hospital.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JHF_Jackson/status/1249752088147566592

 
Despite the negative publicity about open beaches and Spring Break, Florida has actually outperformed most expectations (in a good way for once)
Part of the reason why: https://m.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2020/03/27/video-shows-cell-phones-on-florida-beach-during-spring-break-and-where-theyve-travelled-during-coronavirus-outbreak

The most commonly used tests for COVID 19 have a false negative rate around 30%.

...

math tells us the likelihood of two false negatives is still 9%. 
That's not a great solution then.  Way too unreliable at those numbers.

With hospitals losing $ from elective procedures, good luck with that.
This is a major problem right now.

What’s that got to do with anything? It would be coming from the government. 
When?  Not disagreeing, just looking at the current numbers and it's not looking great right now.  Nurses being furloughed, departments facing tough cuts, etc.  Thankfully not every hospital is overrun with COVID19 patients, but even those with quite a few are facing major financial strains at the moment (like most other businesses).

 
Part of the reason why: https://m.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2020/03/27/video-shows-cell-phones-on-florida-beach-during-spring-break-and-where-theyve-travelled-during-coronavirus-outbreak

That's not a great solution then.  Way too unreliable at those numbers.

This is a major problem right now.

When?  Not disagreeing, just looking at the current numbers and it's not looking great right now.  Nurses being furloughed, departments facing tough cuts, etc.  Thankfully not every hospital is overrun with COVID19 patients, but even those with quite a few are facing major financial strains at the moment (like most other businesses).
https://www.kcrg.com/content/news/Senate-Dems-unveil-heroes-fund-proposal-25000-hazard-pay-for-essential-workers-569543031.html

 
Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277 reported cases

2/12 - 490 reported cases

2/17 - 893 reported cases -  5 dead 

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead

2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead

2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead

3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead

3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead

3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead

3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead

3/22 - 255,584 reported cases - 11,350 dead - USA 33,346 cases - 414 dead

3/27 - 514,956 reported cases - 24,048 dead - USA 104,126 cases - 1,695 dead

4/2 - 932,707 reported cases - 49,664 dead - USA  244,320 cases - 5,897 dead 

4/6 - 1,264,826 reported cases - 71,366 dead - USA 367,004 cases - 10,871 dead

4/9 - 1,521,741 reported cases - 92,380 dead - USA 468,566 cases - 16,691 dead - Active USA cases 425,947

4/10 - 1,615,613 reported cases - 99,349 dead - USA 502,036 cases - 18,717 dead - Active USA cases 456,080

4/11 - 1,698,260 reported cases - 105,487 dead - USA 532,879 cases - 20,577 dead - Active USA cases 481,849 

4/12 - 1,770,995 reported cases - 110,906 dead - USA 560,433 cases - 22,115 dead - Active USA cases 505,684

4/13 - 1,841,688 reported cases - 116,277 dead - USA 586,941 cases - 23,640 dead - Active USA cases 526,353

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0

Column I in Ned's sheet is not an enjoyable column to track...

 
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Sonoma County just issued a "mandatory mask" policy starting April 17. 

exceptions are: 

- outdoor exercise (unless you cannot maintain a 6' distance from people around you)
- children under the age of 2
- anyone who is unable to remove a mask without assistance
- anyone who has trouble breathing or is unconscious 
- driving in a car with windows rolled up
- at home

masks defined as: 

- facial coverings means any fabric or cloth that covers the mouth and nose. the facial covering can be made using household items (including scarves, bandanas, t-shirts, sweatshirts, towels, turtlenecks, or other fabric), can be sewn by hand, or factory-made. 
- persons may wear N-95 respirators and surgical masks if they have them already, and are asked to not to purchase these items so they may be available to healthcare workers and other medical first responders coming into contact with infected persons. 

persons found in violation of this order may be subject to fine, imprisonment, or both. 

 
ConstruxBoy said:
I'm not 100% on board with your first point above. My opinion is that the effectiveness of most people when working from home is very overstated. Everyone says they do it well. Just like everyone says they are an above average driver. But here I am posting on a message board. 
Probably depends on how WFH-friendly your work is.

My team hasn't missed a beat despite having less than 24 hours notice our office was closing.  Bet we move to it like 2 days a week after this ends.

 
Sonoma County just issued a "mandatory mask" policy starting April 17. 

exceptions are: 

- outdoor exercise (unless you cannot maintain a 6' distance from people around you)
- children under the age of 2
- anyone who is unable to remove a mask without assistance
- anyone who has trouble breathing or is unconscious 
- driving in a car with windows rolled up
- at home

masks defined as: 

- facial coverings means any fabric or cloth that covers the mouth and nose. the facial covering can be made using household items (including scarves, bandanas, t-shirts, sweatshirts, towels, turtlenecks, or other fabric), can be sewn by hand, or factory-made. 
- persons may wear N-95 respirators and surgical masks if they have them already, and are asked to not to purchase these items so they may be available to healthcare workers and other medical first responders coming into contact with infected persons. 

persons found in violation of this order may be subject to fine, imprisonment, or both. 
Travis County, TX too (Austin)

 
Sonoma County just issued a "mandatory mask" policy starting April 17. 

exceptions are: 

- outdoor exercise (unless you cannot maintain a 6' distance from people around you)
- children under the age of 2
- anyone who is unable to remove a mask without assistance
- anyone who has trouble breathing or is unconscious 
- driving in a car with windows rolled up
- at home

masks defined as: 

- facial coverings means any fabric or cloth that covers the mouth and nose. the facial covering can be made using household items (including scarves, bandanas, t-shirts, sweatshirts, towels, turtlenecks, or other fabric), can be sewn by hand, or factory-made. 
- persons may wear N-95 respirators and surgical masks if they have them already, and are asked to not to purchase these items so they may be available to healthcare workers and other medical first responders coming into contact with infected persons. 

persons found in violation of this order may be subject to fine, imprisonment, or both. 
This is coming for all of CA, no doubt.

 
Sonoma County just issued a "mandatory mask" policy starting April 17. 

exceptions are: 

- outdoor exercise (unless you cannot maintain a 6' distance from people around you)
- children under the age of 2
- anyone who is unable to remove a mask without assistance
- anyone who has trouble breathing or is unconscious 
- driving in a car with windows rolled up
- at home

masks defined as: 

- facial coverings means any fabric or cloth that covers the mouth and nose. the facial covering can be made using household items (including scarves, bandanas, t-shirts, sweatshirts, towels, turtlenecks, or other fabric), can be sewn by hand, or factory-made. 
- persons may wear N-95 respirators and surgical masks if they have them already, and are asked to not to purchase these items so they may be available to healthcare workers and other medical first responders coming into contact with infected persons. 

persons found in violation of this order may be subject to fine, imprisonment, or both. 


Travis County, TX too (Austin)


This is coming for all of CA, no doubt.


New Jersey went to this at some point last week. 50% reduction of legal capacity in stores, no mask no gloves no enterence.


i would expect a mandatory state-wide policy by the end of the month. 
More of this, less blanket shut down. Progress.

 
Knowing Newsom it will be part of the relaxing plan. I'm glad he's our governor. Can't wait to hear his plans for the state tomorrow at noon. Tune in to KPIX, CBS. They always air his pressers.
Curious, when you refer to the bolded, is it supposed to be an outline for how CA's shut down ends?

 

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