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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

The Commish said:
Isn't this the crux of our problem here though?  It sure feels like it.  It's easy to play monday morning QB, but through this whole thing, it's been rather obvious to me that with the correct information, clear messaging/direction, and individual willingness to participate, we should be able to forego much of this pain any time a virus like this comes up.  We were sub par in all of these if not in the "flat out drop the ball" category in them.  We've learned what not to do.  I think we can all agree on that.  We've learned where the breakdowns began and continued.  Hopefully replacing those pieces moving forward helps us to avoid this kind of stuff in the future.  We can't afford to NOT learn from our mistakes here.  It should now be crystal clear why we have gov't officials all over the world working with other gov't officials of other countries.  It should be crystal clear why it's important to have a pandemic taskforce designed to lead us in those efforts should we not be able to prevent spread to our country.
Click to expand...
OK. But I’m not sure what percentage of our population has really learned their lesson, and there’s so much politicization and misinformation it’s hard to be optimistic moving forward.

 
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moleculo said:
thanks.

Could it be a function of time since infection - as in, you do better if you had HCoV 3 months ago as opposed to 15 years ago?  Assume a kid is 18 years old and went to public school.  good chance they had HCoV at some point within the past 12 years.  For a grown adult, it may have been 20 years (as adults don't frequent the germ factories that public schools are).  does that make sense?
Click to expand...
Seems like it would be really easy to have a nationwide comparison between people with preschool aged kids and a similar aged cohort without. While no guarantee I have been infected with a cold like Corona virus, I have had more colds in the last 4 years than my entire life before it. Nationwide there should be enough people to get significant numbers. 

 
Doug B said:
parasaurolophus said:
You named new zealand and then say the bold. 

Bad faith discussion by you. Moving on. 
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Please expand -- the specifics of New Zealand's shutdown are not common knowledge.
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Found a good article about New Zealand's shutdown (NatGeo.com via Google Cache to avoid some pop-ups). The only main difference I see is that New Zealanders bought in a lot more collectively. I don't see where NZ cops or military were enforcing orders.

IMHO, their type of shutdown was well tolerable, and was more like what should have happened more commonly in the U.S. -- harder shutdowns could have been held for shorter durations.

 
Terminalxylem said:
3. We have the tools to contain the virus, but have to be willing to stick with them. ~6 weeks of sacrifice is all it takes. It's not just authoritarian countries that have succeeded, as evidenced by S Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, etc.
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It's been hard to accept that like 30-40% of the country would rather do what we've been doing or do nothing than bite the bullet and rid the ####### virus from the country.  At least down to a couple hundred(?) cases a day (as @msommersuggests).

The solution isn't magic.  It's not impossible to do.  We, as a country, just don't have the will to do it because we're divided to the point we can't agree on anything.

 
What's up in California?  Just noticed they had 2,908 new cases yesterday.  That's the highest number they've reported in one day, ever.

 
Dr. Dena Grayson

@DrDenaGrayson

South Korea confirms 40 new #coronavirus cases—biggest daily jump in ~50 days—as children return to school. SK may need to reimpose #PhysicalDistancing as it’s becoming difficult to track the spread of #COVID19 amid eased attitudes on distancing.

 
Doug B said:
Found a good article about New Zealand's shutdown (NatGeo.com via Google Cache to avoid some pop-ups). The only main difference I see is that New Zealanders bought in a lot more collectively. I don't see where NZ cops or military were enforcing orders.

IMHO, their type of shutdown was well tolerable, and was more like what should have happened more commonly in the U.S. -- harder shutdowns could have been held for shorter durations.
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Yep, I don’t know what parasaurolophus is talking about. And NZ was one of the countries the Harvard dude in the Anderson Cooper clip mentioned, so it’s not like I was trying to make a non-good faith point.

 
Terminalxylem said:
The Commish said:
Isn't this the crux of our problem here though?  It sure feels like it.  It's easy to play monday morning QB, but through this whole thing, it's been rather obvious to me that with the correct information, clear messaging/direction, and individual willingness to participate, we should be able to forego much of this pain any time a virus like this comes up.  We were sub par in all of these if not in the "flat out drop the ball" category in them.  We've learned what not to do.  I think we can all agree on that.  We've learned where the breakdowns began and continued.  Hopefully replacing those pieces moving forward helps us to avoid this kind of stuff in the future.  We can't afford to NOT learn from our mistakes here.  It should now be crystal clear why we have gov't officials all over the world working with other gov't officials of other countries.  It should be crystal clear why it's important to have a pandemic taskforce designed to lead us in those efforts should we not be able to prevent spread to our country.
Click to expand...
OK. But I’m not sure what percentage of our population has really learned their lesson, and there’s so much politicization and misinformation it’s hard to be optimistic moving forward.
Click to expand...
I'm not overly optimistic...not by any stretch.  However, situations like this is where leaders lead.  They do the heavy lifting and guide the country.  It's their job to cut out all that noise and take us down the path they believe is best.  History shows that when we  have confidence in our leaders, we rally behind them even if we don't agree with the approach.  It happened during 9/11, financial crisis of 2008 and many many events prior to those.  I still have faith that concept still exists in this country.  I wish our leadership did.

 
With the talk of which countries are doing well or poorly, let's say for one minute that worldometer is accurate.  How would you rank the following categories to determine which countries are doing the best:

- Cases per million
- Deaths per million
- Tests per million

Or, is there another metric that worldometer doesn't list that is readily available elsewhere?

 
JbizzleMan said:
Dr. Dena Grayson

@DrDenaGrayson

South Korea confirms 40 new #coronavirus cases—biggest daily jump in ~50 days—as children return to school. SK may need to reimpose #PhysicalDistancing as it’s becoming difficult to track the spread of #COVID19 amid eased attitudes on distancing.
Click to expand...
Not surprising. Despite their apparent resistance to infection, I’ll be shocked if kids don’t end up playing a significant role in the spread/resurgence of SARS-CoV-2.

 
Doug B said:
Found a good article about New Zealand's shutdown (NatGeo.com via Google Cache to avoid some pop-ups). The only main difference I see is that New Zealanders bought in a lot more collectively. I don't see where NZ cops or military were enforcing orders.

IMHO, their type of shutdown was well tolerable, and was more like what should have happened more commonly in the U.S. -- harder shutdowns could have been held for shorter durations.
Click to expand...
They were only allowed to have grocery stores, pharmacies, hospitals, and gas stations open. 

15% of their population will be out of work until September. 

ETA: should clarify that the 15% was specific to tourism. Obviously other areas will be affected as well. 

 
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JbizzleMan said:
Dr. Dena Grayson

@DrDenaGrayson

South Korea confirms 40 new #coronavirus cases—biggest daily jump in ~50 days—as children return to school. SK may need to reimpose #PhysicalDistancing as it’s becoming difficult to track the spread of #COVID19 amid eased attitudes on distancing.
Click to expand...
Did she even read the article? 

All but four of the new cases were in the densely populated Seoul region, where officials are scrambling to stop transmissions linked to nightclubs, karaoke rooms and a massive e-commerce warehouse. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
They were only allowed to have grocery stores, pharmacies, hospitals, and gas stations open. 

15% of their population will be out of work until September. 
Click to expand...
:shrug:

But I'm one that thinks that pretty much all money exchange should've been somehow "magically" stopped by fiat. Essentially, it should have been "magically" made so that no one even needed to work throughout all this. Insta-unemployment with practically no oversight or means consideration. Print money, stop monthly payments of all kinds ...  just wave the friggin' wand, take the pain, and make it happen.

I was told that "couldn't happen", though :shrug:  Couldn't be done. Stuff would fall through the cracks, "the system" would collapse, etc.

 
parasaurolophus said:
Did she even read the article? 

All but four of the new cases were in the densely populated Seoul region, where officials are scrambling to stop transmissions linked to nightclubs, karaoke rooms and a massive e-commerce warehouse. 
Click to expand...
The original tweet is giving me a heart attack so let’s keep this conversation going ...

 
I didn't hear Vietnam mentioned as one of the countries kicking COVID's butt.  According to worldometer, they have a population of 97M (15th in the world).  They've had only 327 cases, of which 278 have already recovered.  Their total death count thus far is... ZERO!

 
JbizzleMan said:
Dr. Dena Grayson

@DrDenaGrayson

South Korea confirms 40 new #coronavirus cases—biggest daily jump in ~50 days—as children return to school. SK may need to reimpose #PhysicalDistancing as it’s becoming difficult to track the spread of #COVID19 amid eased attitudes on distancing.
Click to expand...
The 40 cases were all linked to an e-commerce warehouse and had nothing to do with schools. Do you people not admit that SOME people do actually fear monger? Not talking the poster but the Twitter account. 

 
TheWinz said:
With the talk of which countries are doing well or poorly, let's say for one minute that worldometer is accurate.  How would you rank the following categories to determine which countries are doing the best:

- Cases per million
- Deaths per million
- Tests per million

Or, is there another metric that worldometer doesn't list that is readily available elsewhere?
Click to expand...
Qatar doesn't get enough attention.

Per Worldometers:

48,947 Cases

30 Deaths for a CFR rate of .06%

 
IvanKaramazov said:
If we've learned anything during this pandemic, it's that most people have no understanding of what "reasonable precautions" mean.  It seems like half of the people are doing nothing, and the other half are putting their mail in the oven.
Click to expand...
Is it wrong that I’m using this all as an excuse to avoid seeing my incompetent boss?

 
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-fish- said:
I think you missed the point.   This was their first large outbreak since loosening restrictions.  It happened as schools are opening, which is the biggest concern about reopening.  Nobody blamed it on schools.   
Click to expand...
It’s a poorly worded tweet (as are most of them) so I can see how it could be misconstrued. Just my two cents. 
 

Words...who thought they were so important?  

 
TheWinz said:
I didn't hear Vietnam mentioned as one of the countries kicking COVID's butt.  According to worldometer, they have a population of 97M (15th in the world).  They've had only 327 cases, of which 278 have already recovered.  Their total death count thus far is... ZERO!
Click to expand...
Yeah, they have done really well. Noticed this about 6 weeks ago. Bullish on their economy between this and China trade tensions.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
If we've learned anything during this pandemic, it's that most people have no understanding of what "reasonable precautions" mean.  It seems like half of the people are doing nothing, and the other half are putting their mail in the oven.
Click to expand...
This is going to be the difficulty for us this summer. We have a teenager who's days would typically be jam-packed with camps, sports, jobs. I'm already sick of fighting with him every day. His friend group includes both extremes.  On Sunday, he asked to go on a bike ride with a friend - no problem.  They ride some trails, then want to shoot hoops at his friend's house - we say its OK.  This friend's dad is a prominent pediatrician in our city, a guy I respect.  What we didn't know is they were having a bbq party, tons of kids there and my son is playing basketball, soccer, volleyball all afternoon. Other friends are available online only - no personal interaction at all.  My 9 year old daughter was playing with a couple neighbor friends yesterday, then ended up in a different neighbor's swimming pool with a dozen other kids.  There's no way to win this game.

 
COVID-19: CDC warns that current antibody tests may be inaccurate

New guidance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that in areas where the prevalence of COVID-19 is low, “less than half of those testing positive will truly have antibodies.” The CDC also says that antibodies are not accurate enough to use to make important policy decisions.
Click to expand...
Why is it that just about every day there is some report that suggests that the CDC and/or WHO have no clue what they're doing?

 
-fish- said:
Why is it that just about every day there is some report that suggests that the CDC and/or WHO have no clue what they're doing?
Click to expand...
Yeah, this is information they should have released a month ago.  Bayes Rule was being talked about in here a month ago.  That the CDC allowed these antibody tests to flourish and allowed policy to be set based on them is incomprehensible.  

 
-fish- said:
COVID-19: CDC warns that current antibody tests may be inaccurate

New guidance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that in areas where the prevalence of COVID-19 is low, “less than half of those testing positive will truly have antibodies.” The CDC also says that antibodies are not accurate enough to use to make important policy decisions.
Click to expand...
Why is it that just about every day there is some report that suggests that the CDC and/or WHO have no clue what they're doing?
Click to expand...
This was pretty obvious

 
shader said:
Exactly.  
 

Pretty easy math right now with 100,000 deaths

A 1% death rate, which seems quite possible, assumes 10 million cases in the USA.  With 1.7 million reported cases, I can buy 8 million asymptomatic and missed cases

For a .1% death rate, it would require 100 million cases.  I don’t buy that for a second.  It’s patently absurd.

We are way too far along for this myth to persist.  We have a 6 percent death rate right now for recorded cases.  We have 100k dead people in just 2 months despite the biggest lockdown this country has ever seen in our lifetimes.  This narrative needs to end.
Click to expand...
It definitely requires a lot of cases, but it doesn't have to be 100 million if the population infected is not evenly distributed.  If you go by the CDC "best" estimate , they are listing symptomatic case fatality rates by age are:

0-49 years : 0.05%

50-64 years : 0.2%

65+ years : 1.3%

Using my home state as an example:

PA population for (0-49, 50-64, 65+) is 68%, 16%, 16%

Multiplying those numbers by the above estimates gets you 0.27% CFR if the whole state gets infected

PA confirmed cases for (0-49, 50-64, 65+) is 47%, 25%, 28%

Multiplying those numbers by the above estimates gets you 0.44% CFR for the people that have been infected already

So, if the most vulnerable people get infected disproportionately your CFR will be inflated from its "true" rate for the entire population.  This is also of course true in reverse in that if your least vulnerable people get infected first your CFR will appear lower than the "true" rate.  

Of course, to get big moves from say 2% to .4%, you need correspondingly big asymmetries in infection rates.  Does anyone know where the data is for the US as a whole? 

 
-fish- said:
Why is it that just about every day there is some report that suggests that the CDC and/or WHO have no clue what they're doing?
Click to expand...
:lol:  Yeah ours came back negative and the doctor just mentioned to my wife they have the higher accuracy one now if we wanted to take it again. 

 
Dr_Zaius said:
It definitely requires a lot of cases, but it doesn't have to be 100 million if the population infected is not evenly distributed.  If you go by the CDC "best" estimate , they are listing symptomatic case fatality rates by age are:

0-49 years : 0.05%

50-64 years : 0.2%

65+ years : 1.3%

Using my home state as an example:

PA population for (0-49, 50-64, 65+) is 68%, 16%, 16%

Multiplying those numbers by the above estimates gets you 0.27% CFR if the whole state gets infected

PA confirmed cases for (0-49, 50-64, 65+) is 47%, 25%, 28%

Multiplying those numbers by the above estimates gets you 0.44% CFR for the people that have been infected already

So, if the most vulnerable people get infected disproportionately your CFR will be inflated from its "true" rate for the entire population.  This is also of course true in reverse in that if your least vulnerable people get infected first your CFR will appear lower than the "true" rate.  

Of course, to get big moves from say 2% to .4%, you need correspondingly big asymmetries in infection rates.  Does anyone know where the data is for the US as a whole? 
Click to expand...
I don't trust the CDC's estimates at all.  I'll take whatever flack anyone wants to give me for saying this, but I think the "CDC planning scenario" page, that you linked, is total crap.

 
shader said:
I don't trust the CDC's estimates at all.  I'll take whatever flack anyone wants to give me for saying this, but I think the "CDC planning scenario" page, that you linked, is total crap.
Click to expand...
Understood, and I don't think that's an indefensible position.  But I thought the exercise was still useful because the mathematical concept still holds even at higher numbers - If people more likely to be fatalities get hit hard (e.g., it rampages through nursing homes), the overall numbers may be better than they appear at first glance because the people infected in the future will be more resilient.

 
Dr_Zaius said:
Understood, and I don't think that's an indefensible position.  But I thought the exercise was still useful because the mathematical concept still holds even at higher numbers - If people more likely to be fatalities get hit hard (e.g., it rampages through nursing homes), the overall numbers may be better than they appear at first glance because the people infected in the future will be more resilient.
Click to expand...
makes sense.  thanks.

 
shader said:
Yeah, this is information they should have released a month ago.  Bayes Rule was being talked about in here a month ago.  That the CDC allowed these antibody tests to flourish and allowed policy to be set based on them is incomprehensible.  
Click to expand...
What policies have been set? 

 
TheWinz said:
I didn't hear Vietnam mentioned as one of the countries kicking COVID's butt.  According to worldometer, they have a population of 97M (15th in the world).  They've had only 327 cases, of which 278 have already recovered.  Their total death count thus far is... ZERO!
Click to expand...
I've been in Saigon since March 8th.  They have a lot of natural advantages for stopping Coronavirus spread.  They spend a lot a time outside.  When they are indoors they'll have windows and doors/gates open to the outside so they're still basically outside.  It's always hot and humid.  Due to a very healthy diet and active lifestyle, people have strong immune systems and most who did get Covid didn't get it severely.  Even old people are active and in good shape.  They usually keep a fair amount of social distancing without kisses, hugs, or touching.  Most restaurants and bars have seating on the street or are still open air if they have inside seating.  Most people get around on motoscooters instead of taking public transportation.  They don't have many social events with crowds instead they'll hang out in front of their house with 3-8 people.  Even most of their church services seem to be held in people's houses with like 10 people and the front door or gate will be open.  They did take action against Coronavirus early and decisively, but my guess is that they'll keep Covid numbers low without taking any more drastic actions.  Although, their official Covid numbers are definitely not as low as they are saying.  It is a communist country without transparency.  I'm sure there were people who died of Covid who were officially listed as dying of something else.

 
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Interesting article on asymptomatic/presymptomatic transmission in a nursing home:

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection can spread rapidly within skilled nursing facilities. After identification of a case of Covid-19 in a skilled nursing facility, we assessed transmission and evaluated the adequacy of symptom-based screening to identify infections in residents.

METHODS

We conducted two serial point-prevalence surveys, 1 week apart, in which assenting residents of the facility underwent nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal testing for SARS-CoV-2, including real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR), viral culture, and sequencing. Symptoms that had been present during the preceding 14 days were recorded. Asymptomatic residents who tested positive were reassessed 7 days later. Residents with SARS-CoV-2 infection were categorized as symptomatic with typical symptoms (fever, cough, or shortness of breath), symptomatic with only atypical symptoms, presymptomatic, or asymptomatic.

RESULTS

Twenty-three days after the first positive test result in a resident at this skilled nursing facility, 57 of 89 residents (64%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Among 76 residents who participated in point-prevalence surveys, 48 (63%) tested positive. Of these 48 residents, 27 (56%) were asymptomatic at the time of testing; 24 subsequently developed symptoms (median time to onset, 4 days). Samples from these 24 presymptomatic residents had a median rRT-PCR cycle threshold value of 23.1, and viable virus was recovered from 17 residents. As of April 3, of the 57 residents with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 11 had been hospitalized (3 in the intensive care unit) and 15 had died (mortality, 26%). Of the 34 residents whose specimens were sequenced, 27 (79%) had sequences that fit into two clusters with a difference of one nucleotide.

CONCLUSIONS

Rapid and widespread transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was demonstrated in this skilled nursing facility. More than half of residents with positive test results were asymptomatic at the time of testing and most likely contributed to transmission. Infection-control strategies focused solely on symptomatic residents were not sufficient to prevent transmission after SARS-CoV-2 introduction into this facility.
Click to expand...

 
belljr said:
So are those Texas and Georgia numbers really high?
Click to expand...
Texas numbers are much higher than the moving average, but their numbers were way down over weekend so maybe it's a backlog.  Georgia numbers aren't all that high, pretty normal.

 
The trend continues with over 106,000 new cases on Covid worldometers.  Almost 5,300 deaths worldwide for the day.  A new first is Brazil leading the new cases count with 22,300 to the U.S.'20,500.  They're followed by Russia (8,300), India (7,300), and Peru (6,150).  The U.S. reported the most deaths at 1,535, followed by Brazil at 1,148 and then Mexico at 501.  Mexico's had a tough couple of days.  I happen to keep an eye on Sri Lanka, home of a former student of mine, and they're cases have increased 10% or more the past couple of days.  Several countries around the world had increases that exceeded 10%.  So still a lot of trouble spots and other potential trouble spots if cases continue to grow.

 
Anyone in/near Tulsa? I'm supposed to go to an event next weekend but can't imagine they're going to allow a large group to gather yet.

Anyone know the gathering limit there?

 
JbizzleMan said:
Dr. Dena Grayson

@DrDenaGrayson

South Korea confirms 40 new #coronavirus cases—biggest daily jump in ~50 days—as children return to school. SK may need to reimpose #PhysicalDistancing as it’s becoming difficult to track the spread of #COVID19 amid eased attitudes on distancing.
Click to expand...
If SK can't handle schools because of tracing issues, we are absolutely ####ed when kids go back to school in a couple months. No chance of not having a 2nd wave. 

 
[icon] said:
If SK can't handle schools because of tracing issues, we are absolutely ####ed when kids go back to school in a couple months. No chance of not having a 2nd wave. 
Click to expand...
Yea, no chance my kid is going to preschool in august. Was so excited for him to start too. This just sucks on so many levels. 

 
Feel like people are looking straight past the school issue without realizing it's the pink elephant.  

There's no way that you can say that we are safe in 2 months.  I can't even say for sure that the following year schools will open.  

 
Not sure why people are focusing on things being worse two to three months from now. We have a problem now. We have no more tools to fight this thing now, at the end of May, then we did in March. If anything, two to three months from now might look better than now because some advancement happens. Or it could get worse before schools reopen. People are cheering that the reopening of Georgia four weeks ago hasn't produced a spike in cases, but at the same time it hasn't produced a spike in their economy either. Seems to me as long as the economy stays low, cases stay low. If the economy rises, cases will rise too. And it won't be just a correlation. It will be a causation. And it could occur even before schools go back in session as people slowly reengage in economic activities. 

 
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