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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
matuski
Footballguy
I sat in a restaurant this weekend, one person wearing a mask.
Watching her attempt to eat and drink with it on was high comedy.
matuski
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
i see people riding bikes with masks on.
or better yet driving a car with no one else in the car wearing one. its hilarious
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Not just government. Doctors and nurses too.
Even the doctors that have come around almost seemed pained to have done so. Pretty much making sure they go out of their way to repeat over and over that surgical masks and respirators need to be saved for doctors and nurses.
You can buy surgical masks pretty much everywhere now so if hospitals need them, they are available. You cant buy N95 masks anywhere but ebay so nobody is stealing those from hospitals.
top dog
Footballguy
I know 4 people who have died. Two were 70+, 1 was in her 60s, the other 52 but with underlying health conditions. 18 other people who have had it and recovered. All but one of these cases (1 death) were all related to a an outbreak we had at one of our facilities in our company. Cleveland, OH area.
culdeus
Footballguy
There's some rationale here, the guidelines say that if you are to run 3 errands in short order then you should have the mask on from the time of the first errands to the conclusion of the third. Logic being that touching the mask if not disposing of it sort of defeats the purpose of using it.
Also delivery drivers are told to never take it off
shader
Footballguy
None. I look at the stats, and I have no idea how they came up with those numbers. My opinion is that their numbers are crap. I'll stick with the WHO's numbers unless the CDC can explain how they came to their conclusions. I would not make medical decisions based on my opinion.what exactly are your professional qualifications to conclude that it’s total crap?
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belljr
Footballguy
I think the car people are being cautious.
They are either on their way to the store or back from the store and dont want to touch it once they put it on. I thought it was weird at first. Then my wife did it. Came home washed her hands then took the mask off. I asked why didn't she take it off in the car. She said she forgot hand sanitizer and didn't want to mess with her face
but I agree it looks ridiculous
Doug B
Footballguy
Right, maybe -- note that Spock and I were speaking hypothetically about why an outbreak at a daycare might or might not get noticed by the public.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I do this. Because if I go to lowes and then the grocery store a mile away. Taking it off and putting it back on in the interim is actually poor procedure.
The grocery store is also 1.5 miles from my house. Why would I take it off in my car when I can just take it off at home in an area I have designated for doing so?
I think surface transmission is almost non existent so I probably dont need to do this, but it just falls in line with what we were taught. I also forget it is on sometimes.
I am sure this isnt why everybody driving around in one is doing it, but could be for some.
For longer drives i handle differently.
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
Yeah, I went for a hike on Sunday with my son. Big nature preserve with lots of trails. There were more people there than normal, but even with that you'd maybe pass someone every few minutes and there's plenty of room to give people space (one college-aged girl did annoy me because she unnecessarily practically bumped shoulders with me as we passed from opposite directions). We came across two small groups where everyone had masks. They're certainly not hurting anyone, but I can't imagine it's doing anything to lessen their risk in that type of environment.
beer 30
Footballguy
Same with USC (South Carolina not the high brow one out West). Fall break was kinda stupid anyhow but foregoing Fall break and ending in-person with Thanksgiving. Everything after that will go to online with exams being online as well.
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
Why so judgy? Maybe some of these people are wearing the masks because they're feeling symptomatic or registered a higher than normal temp when they last checked? I mean, that is what they're supposed to be doing.
Agree most likely not necessary but you don’t know everyone’s situation. They may live with an elderly parent, or maybe have developed a cough or something else for them to be cautious.
shader
Footballguy
That CDC article that estimated a .26% cfr is really becoming the document that the hoaxers and the justaflu bros are using to justify their positions. I have been too busy to seriously analyze it, but it's honestly a shocking number that they need to address in more detail.
Pretty interesting article: we may need to move this discussion to the political thread.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/coronavirus-cdc-infection-fatality-rate
Pretty interesting article: we may need to move this discussion to the political thread.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/coronavirus-cdc-infection-fatality-rate
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Are we at the point where people are saying we could be having outbreaks where nobody is getting sick?
That seems like a weird line of discussion to be concerned with at all.
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
On the school thing, to me that's one of the areas where there should be a lot of brainpower working on right now. Just how much of a disease vector are the kids in school? It seems the kids themselves are at pretty low risk, but do they contribute a lot to the spread or not? We need to know this to make intelligent decisions.
I suspect that like a lot things, slowing the spread probably roughly adheres to the 80/20 rule - you can get 80% of the gains for a not terribly onerous effort, but eventually more gains require a lot more effort. The school closings are one of the most disruptive interventions that we've taken. If they're a huge source of gains, fair enough, but if they're of minimal benefit they really need to be rethought. If we want to minimize the collateral damage of this thing we need to be thinking about cost benefit of all of these interventions. Do the things that help that are easy. Only do the really draconian things if they move the needle a lot.
I suspect that like a lot things, slowing the spread probably roughly adheres to the 80/20 rule - you can get 80% of the gains for a not terribly onerous effort, but eventually more gains require a lot more effort. The school closings are one of the most disruptive interventions that we've taken. If they're a huge source of gains, fair enough, but if they're of minimal benefit they really need to be rethought. If we want to minimize the collateral damage of this thing we need to be thinking about cost benefit of all of these interventions. Do the things that help that are easy. Only do the really draconian things if they move the needle a lot.
If things actually improve because of the weather, the fall/winter will be brutal.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
It literally says on the page "They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19."
That is a number they are feeding their models. Why they'd input comically small fatality numbers is anyone's guess. Unfortunately, they don't give their methodology or data used to come up with their parameters.
Doug B
Footballguy
Backtrack a bit to the previous page, para.
When I was responding to Spock above, I was agreeing with your point in red: if the daycare kids had an asymptomatic outbreak, caretakers falling ill would be the tells. Those daycare-worker tells haven't been coming.
Doug B
Footballguy
Looking at that article ... is the CDC saying that 0.26% was the likeliest case-fatality rate (CFR)? Or the likeliest "death rate" of the population ... where everyone is in the denominator.
Rich Conway
Footballguy
Hey, don't criticize. All the recycling centers and bottle deposits are closed. I ran out of storage space!
Jackstraw
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
I can't really tell. What I have seen is that a lot of people are taking this as the gospel truth now. I honestly didn't really bat an eye when I first saw the article because to me it seemed odd and i instantly discounted it. But I underestimated how many people would grab ahold of it as new proof that this virus isn't a big deal.
It's just a crazy thing to watch. A pandemic with so many dead, and yet a large number of people who think it's an overblown hoax.
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JbizzleMan
Footballguy
Arizona seems to be seeing increased Covid hospitalizations
TheWinz
Footballguy
Schools (and daycares) are pretty similar, no matter if you are a toddler or a college student. It's a bunch of similar aged people, with an adult in charge (and sometimes multiple adults). Getting anyone ages 0 thru 21 to adhere to COVID rules isn't just highly unlikely - it's impossible. And here's the thing - these 0 thru 21 year olds aren't the ones at risk. Neither are their parents, unless they were humping while filing for social security.
We are living a version of Logan's Run right now.
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
The CDC page is definitely saying 0.26% is the symptomatic case-fatality rate. Like shader, I would really like to see the information that is driving that calculation. I'm not dismissing it out of hand, but there must be inputs there that are telling a different story than some of the popular tracking pages, and I would like to see what those are to understand them. The extent that the page goes into it is "All parameter values are based on current COVID-19 surveillance data and scientific knowledge." , which is obviously no help at all.
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
And the anti-lockdown crowd suddenly being huge CDC fans on this one specific issue is the least surprising thing ever. It's the flip side of the pro-lockdown crowd signal-boosting negative data in any areas that are loosening restrictions. It would be nice if people could take a clear eyed, honest look at all of the data, but unfortunately that's not human nature.
beer 30
Footballguy
So you're saying anyone over, say 40, should start hoarding ammo? I'm down.
55 and not walking into that arena!
Capella
Footballguy
Car thing is pretty obvious. If you’re going from point A to B in a short distance it’s just easier to leave it on. Especially if you have glasses or something where it’s a pain.
Big League Chew
Footballguy
VA beginning phase 1 tomm
its funny i live in a corner point of Virginia where it borders MD and 5 minutes away is WV. Its bizarre seeing total different views in those three states. VA not giving a sh. WV semi not giving a sh. MD going full lock down.. so i buy my liquor in MD
its funny i live in a corner point of Virginia where it borders MD and 5 minutes away is WV. Its bizarre seeing total different views in those three states. VA not giving a sh. WV semi not giving a sh. MD going full lock down.. so i buy my liquor in MD
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How are you affecting anyone in a negative manner by wearing a mask? Why does it bother some people so much?
matuski
Footballguy
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
They probably feel like the mask wearer is silently judging them. Which is probably true.
culdeus
Footballguy
Same reason people fought, and won, against seat belt laws for so long. Humans have an innate sense of freedom and risk. Where those are in conflict, we pick tend to pick freedom as long as the risk isn't felt directly.
The overwhelming diversion from this would be the 9/11 patriot act type stuff, but that's for another board.
Seat belts are the better analogy here, albeit not perfect as they are pretty ubiquitous, reusable, and for the most part comfortable. If masks were in those categories there wouldn't be near the pushback.
There’s a map on CNN right now showing new cases in last week by state. W Va is one of three states with inc of > 50%, Va is one of 16 (many in Southeast ) that’s between inc of 10-50% and Maryland is in decline.
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
It really is strange. Seeing people in masks should be comforting and we should feel appreciation towards those that are wearing them. Instead it seems to be the opposite for many.
joffer
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Isn't that one of the points of a mask on an infected person? So that if they do cough or sneeze, much more virus stays trapped in the mask rather than spreading out into the surrounding air unhindered? Not sure why a sterile outer surface of the mask is even necessarily desirable -- assuming wearers (or others) aren't frequently handling the soiled mask without handwashing.
I am assuming that the Annals study above was about symptomatic persons themselves wearing masks, and the protection thereof. As opposed to caretakers wearing masks around symptomatic persons.
Doug B
Footballguy
Speaking for myself only: All day long.
I give college age folks and younger somewhat of a pass, but still think they're being oblivious. And I only expect masks in retail establishments, groceries, and such -- I'm not going to local parks silently tut-tutting people.
Not ready for dine-indoors restaurants yet, myself ... but I consider it obvious and unobjectionable that people will remove masks to eat & drink. Of course. The trick in bars & restaurants is to avoid elbow-to-elbow mob scenes.
shader
Footballguy
I think this is one of the reasons so many wear their masks in the car. If you're going to 4-5 different places and you take your mask off when you leave the store, you're going to possibly touch the outside of the mask and you can't handwash in your car. So it makes sense to leave it on, even though it looks silly.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
It looks like Illinois just posted its lowest positive percentage of 5% today. In May, Illinois has tested over 25k 3 times. 5/12 (29k) was a 13% positive rate, 5/21 (29k) was 7% positive and today (26K) was 5% positive. In April they only tested over 15 k once, April 24 positive rate was 17%.
Chicago and 3 or 4 collar counties have gotten the brunt of the epidemic. Statewide hospitalization rates looking good. 10% of hospital beds are COVID, while there are 33% open beds and over 4000 available ventilators.
All good trends IMO.
Chicago and 3 or 4 collar counties have gotten the brunt of the epidemic. Statewide hospitalization rates looking good. 10% of hospital beds are COVID, while there are 33% open beds and over 4000 available ventilators.
All good trends IMO.
Big League Chew
Footballguy
Redwes25
Footballguy
I know too many people to count who have had it but only knew one person personally who have died. A few of my friends and co-workers have had parents die but I didn't know them personally (for example one of my friend's had both his parent's catch it and die but I never meet them). If I include those then probably 6 people have died.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Look up the study. Its a joke. Only 4 patients.
And honestly I have no idea how they state the findings they state.
Their conclusion is that masks dont work, but under their parameters cotton masks were clearly superior. You cant just discard the null readings for one part, but then use them to make your point regarding something else. Even with discarding the no data readings the cotton mask still gave a reading that was like 30% lower than no mask. If we used a zero for the no data readings it is a 55% reduction for the cotton mask.
Also this statement is annoying
They say median, but they calculated the mean.
NotSmart
Footballguy
A couple of those are also illustrative of the likelihood of covid deaths being under-reported.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
So, some good news...
Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought
The source is NPR and the data comes from Johns Hopkins but I'll post this and watch as people do what they will with it.
Lots more info and data contained within so worth a read in it's entirety.
Note: this is not the Stanford Study even though it's coming back with the same range of numbers. Maybe good ol' Johnny Hopkins will be accepted by the timid.
Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought
The source is NPR and the data comes from Johns Hopkins but I'll post this and watch as people do what they will with it.
Lots more info and data contained within so worth a read in it's entirety.
Note: this is not the Stanford Study even though it's coming back with the same range of numbers. Maybe good ol' Johnny Hopkins will be accepted by the timid.
Doug B
Footballguy
It's not any one source or any one person establishes truth -- it's the progressive, inch-by-inch achievement of consensus.
