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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Bayes rule is for populations within populations. In this case: the population of false positives within the population of infected.I guess I got to this thread after this discussion. Read a bit about it, but I don't see how it answers the question I was posing. Can you help me out? If, in one breath, the CDC is saying they lack confidence in antibody testing results to make any sort of policy decisions based on them, then in the next breath throw out "death rate" stats based on antibody testing, how does this rule apply to that? This theorem seems to be about forecasting stats. That's not really what I am asking about.
Assume the following:
330M Americans
5% incidence of infection
95% accurate test (i.e. 5% false positive)
All Americans tested
The results would show:
15,675,000 true positives (330M x 5% actual infected x 95% accuracy)
15,675,000 false positives (330M x 95% uninfected x 5% inaccuracy)
That means the test shows 31,350,00 total infected, but we know only half of them are ACTUALLY infected.
Now, if you received a positive result, how confident are you the you ACTUALLY had Covid? Hint: barring any other info your answer s/b: no more than 50/50.
However, if we know the accuracy of the test we can work backward to estimate the incidence of Covid within the overall population. Problem is that we can't determine with more than 50% accuracy whether any particular individual actually had Covid.
Notably, as the actual incidence of Covid increases the confidence of that any individual had it increases dramatically. To wit, run the math for the above but change the actual incidence from 5% to 30%.
THAT'S Bayes Rule.
That help?
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AAABatteries
Footballguy
We have a drive up graduation ceremony tonight for my oldest - they will have a ceremony in July if possible but he will at least get his diploma tonight.
The Commish
Footballguy
If we were testing 500k people every day back in Jan, Feb, Mar, there probably would have been 50k cases per day.
Also, the data is not very good.
Some states include antibody results
Some states include multiple tests on the same person
Some states are doing more focused testing since testing capacity has increased such as prisons that have high positive %
Lags from weekend reporting and massive data dumps
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I would love to know where these people latched onto this made up false sense of security thing. It is like arguing we shouldnt have air bags because people will drive faster then.
Is it getting warmer or colder in Brazil?
Is it getting warmer or colder in the US?
bucksoh
Footballguy
bucksoh
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
As for the CDC mixed messages portion, I wish someone had some answers on that.Yes...it explains the 50/50 portion. Thanks
bucksoh
Footballguy
I was wrong for my prediction also it happens it is actually much lower than .26. I just got caught up with the hype.
bucksoh
Footballguy
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tri-man 47
Footballguy
Yeesh - per Covid worldometers, a new high of over 125,000 cases along with almost 4,900 deaths. Worldwide reported cases now over 6 million. As you mention, Brazil at a new high with almost 30,000 new cases (and almost 1,200 deaths). Russia, India, and Peru not slowing down at all.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
I also saw this at the end of an article in the Sunday Chicago Tribune:
"Latin America is the latest epicenter of the virus, and experts note the limits of government action in a region where millions have informal jobs and many police forces are unable to enforce restrictions.
Brazil and Mexico reported record numbers of infections and deaths almost daily last week, fueling criticism of their presidents for limited lockdowns. But infections also rose and intensive care unit were swamped in Peru, Chile and Ecuador, all countries lauded for imposing early and aggressive business shutdowns and quarantines."
"Latin America is the latest epicenter of the virus, and experts note the limits of government action in a region where millions have informal jobs and many police forces are unable to enforce restrictions.
Brazil and Mexico reported record numbers of infections and deaths almost daily last week, fueling criticism of their presidents for limited lockdowns. But infections also rose and intensive care unit were swamped in Peru, Chile and Ecuador, all countries lauded for imposing early and aggressive business shutdowns and quarantines."
RUSF18
Footballguy
The people who try and downplay the effectiveness of masks are the same ones who say "just wash your hands and you'll be fine".
Guess what? If everyone washed their hands like my 3 year old does, a lot of people would still get sick. You have to wash your hands appropriately to effectively reduce your risk, and you have to do the same when wearing masks. Not sure why one gets nitpicked while the other gets taken for granted.
Warmer in the US, colder in Brazil. That's how seasons in different hemispheres work.
Is it getting warmer or colder in Brazil?
Is it getting warmer or colder in the US?
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
And away we go...it is like every time at this hour of night the same usual suspects begin crawling out from under rocks with their flat earth. it is just the flu and a missile took down the Twin Tower nonsense.
I can’t figure out if this is just when their moms lets them use the Internet or this is when the alcohol kicks in.
I can’t figure out if this is just when their moms lets them use the Internet or this is when the alcohol kicks in.
-fish-
Footballguy
Wait, I thought the earth was flat? Why would there be different seasons in different hemispheres? Sounds like a pro-sphere hoax.
True enough, a cold day here in Florida is often when the temp doesn't break 70. People breaking out the wind jackets, there's somebody with a parka, it's strange to see.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Have a few of these in my social media feeds. The weird thing is, these are the people calling everyone "sheep" and railing against "the media" and whatnot, yet like clockwork the same six people seem to consistently come up with the same talking points and memes at the same times. Weird how these independent thinkers (who were all dumb kids in school) grew up to be epidemiologists and constitutional scholars. Somehow through their own investigative research they all unearth the same truths at the same moments. What are the odds?And away we go...it is like every time at this hour of night the same usual suspects begin crawling out from under rocks with their flat earth. it is just the flu and a missile took down the Twin Tower nonsense.
I can’t figure out if this is just when their moms lets them use the Internet or this is when the alcohol kicks in.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
bucksoh said:
shader
Footballguy
Really good interview of a German scientist.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/virologist-christian-drosten-we-managed-to-stop-a-pandemic-wave-with-relatively-mild-measures-a-39a8ea77-ec87-4b34-9996-c94ff07c5659
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/virologist-christian-drosten-we-managed-to-stop-a-pandemic-wave-with-relatively-mild-measures-a-39a8ea77-ec87-4b34-9996-c94ff07c5659
Don Hutson
Footballguy
I have a lot of people on my Facebook feed who are complete wingnuts. I think Wisconsin might have a disproportionate amount of them. They truly believe that they are enlightened and can see truths that are invisible to the rest of us. I might even ask a couple of them to block me because, like passing a gruesome car accident, I cannot stop myself from looking at their posts. But it's infuriating. Here are a couple of posts from the last couple of days from a particularly vocal nutjob on my feed. And I like the guy a lot in person.
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prosopis
Arizona Chupacabra
whoa
No way do I have this person block me. That is some free entertainment right there.
I s there a previous connection between Floyd/Chauvin ?
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Floyd and Chauvin worked at the same bar at the same time. But it was a huge bar and one worked outside and one worked inside. My guess is that Chauvin didn't recognize Floyd. But even if he did, the rest of the conclusions are completely insane. I had fun reading this guy's posts for a couple of years. But now it aggravates me. But I can't stop.whoa
No way do I have this person block me. That is some free entertainment right there.
I s there a previous connection between Floyd/Chauvin ?
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TheWinz
Footballguy
Looking at worldometer for each state's deaths per case...
- USA overall 5.8% (104562/1795278)
- MI (9.5%) and CT (9.3%) are by far the hardest hit in terms of deaths per case
- No states are in the 8% range
- NY (7.9%), PA (7.3%), NJ (7.2%), LA (7.1%), and MA (7.0%) are the only states in the 7% range
- IN (6.3%) and OH (6.2%) are the only states in the 6% range
- CO, MO, VT (5.6%), NH (5.3%), OK (5.2%), WA (5.1%), and NV (5.0%) are the states in the 5% range
- AZ, MD, MS (4.8%), RI (4.7%), NM (4.6%), IL (4.5%), FL, KY (4.4%), GA, MN, SC (4.3%) are the states in the 4% range
- CA, DE (3.9%), ME, WV (3.8%), OR (3.7%), AL (3.6%), MT, NC (3.4%), WI (3.2%), VA (3.1%) are the states in the 3% range
- ID (2.9%), IA (2.8%), TX (2.7%), HI (2.6%), AK, ND (2.3%), KS (2.2%) are the states in the 2% range
- AR (1.9%), WY (1.7%), TN (1.6%), NE, SD, UT (1.2%) are the states in the 1% range
I find it hard to believe this virus is nearly 8 times more deadly in Michigan and Connecticut than it is in Nebraska, South Dakota, or Utah. So, what are some possible factors for disparities among the states?
And yes, I know me saying 8 times more deadly is not accurate, so please don't nitpick about it. I wrote it for effect.
- USA overall 5.8% (104562/1795278)
- MI (9.5%) and CT (9.3%) are by far the hardest hit in terms of deaths per case
- No states are in the 8% range
- NY (7.9%), PA (7.3%), NJ (7.2%), LA (7.1%), and MA (7.0%) are the only states in the 7% range
- IN (6.3%) and OH (6.2%) are the only states in the 6% range
- CO, MO, VT (5.6%), NH (5.3%), OK (5.2%), WA (5.1%), and NV (5.0%) are the states in the 5% range
- AZ, MD, MS (4.8%), RI (4.7%), NM (4.6%), IL (4.5%), FL, KY (4.4%), GA, MN, SC (4.3%) are the states in the 4% range
- CA, DE (3.9%), ME, WV (3.8%), OR (3.7%), AL (3.6%), MT, NC (3.4%), WI (3.2%), VA (3.1%) are the states in the 3% range
- ID (2.9%), IA (2.8%), TX (2.7%), HI (2.6%), AK, ND (2.3%), KS (2.2%) are the states in the 2% range
- AR (1.9%), WY (1.7%), TN (1.6%), NE, SD, UT (1.2%) are the states in the 1% range
I find it hard to believe this virus is nearly 8 times more deadly in Michigan and Connecticut than it is in Nebraska, South Dakota, or Utah. So, what are some possible factors for disparities among the states?
And yes, I know me saying 8 times more deadly is not accurate, so please don't nitpick about it. I wrote it for effect.
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culdeus
Footballguy
Nursing homes. There needs to be some filter for nursing home deaths when comparing states. As soon as this thing gets loose in one of those it's lights out.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
Perhaps population density is a factor? Maybe urban residents aren't as healthy as rural residents? Or maybe the virus spreads so quickly in urban areas that it overwhelms the health care system, increasing the chances that a person will die?
[scooter]
Footballguy
Nursing homes are probably a factor, although Rhode Island, Arkansas and Iowa have some of the highest percentages of residents in nursing homes, yet they don't have correspondingly high death rates. Meanwhile, Nevada, Washington and Colorado have relatively low percentages of residents in nursing homes, yet they're all over 5%.
[scooter]
Footballguy
You claimed that the coronavirus was seasonal like the flu.
@Terminalxylem was trying to politely explain to you that your theory is flawed because the virus is simultaneously spreading globally despite the fact that seasons are different.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Do any of you actually research this virus or only get your information from The NY Times and CNN?
TheWinz
Footballguy
I considered this at the top of the factors, along with density. Just seems weird that CT sits at 9.3% and RI is at 4.7%. I actually live in CT, but just a few miles from the RI border. RI ranks behind only NJ in population density. Maybe CT isn't testing young healthy people at nearly the rate of other states? Stands to reason if all your positive cases are sick old people, your percentage is going way up.
That seems like ancient history. I can barely remember Christmas, that feels like a decade ago now.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
...and now I read reports on projected rainfall in southern Mexico and throughout Central America that could be as much as two feet, leading to massive flooding and mud slides.tri-man 47 said:
Cyclones hitting India and Bangladesh; a potential locust plague across East Central Africa; massive rainfalls in Central America - all on top of the Covid risk. We're living through some incredibly difficult times, as noted above.
The better option must be for people who spend all day on the Internet ignoring their family, ignoring their health, ignoring everything else productive adults are supposed to do, being unemployed or simply a lazy employee.And away we go...it is like every time at this hour of night the same usual suspects begin crawling out from under rocks with their flat earth. it is just the flu and a missile took down the Twin Tower nonsense.
I can’t figure out if this is just when their moms lets them use the Internet or this is when the alcohol kicks in.
culdeus
Footballguy
I don't think this matters. What you are saying is those states protect their vulnerable better. There's not some magic powder that can be sprinkled in the morning metamucil
[scooter]
Footballguy
Well then, that would mean that the answer to the original question is "those states protect the vulnerable better", not "those states have lots of nursing homes" (which seems to have been your original response).
