culdeus
Footballguy
Nursing home *deaths
The population doesn't concern me. And no I don't know how to get the exact figures per state of LTC death rate. I'm just guessing based on the info we do have.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
The population doesn't concern me. And no I don't know how to get the exact figures per state of LTC death rate. I'm just guessing based on the info we do have.
TheWinz
Footballguy
The more I crunch the data, the more I believe the high percentage for Connecticut (I can't speak on Michigan) is due to WHO we are testing, not necessarily the lack of care for the elderly. We are testing the crap out of our nursing homes now.
shader
Footballguy
The riots breaking out in so many cities is really dangerous for the spread. Many have masks on but many don’t. And though I haven’t seen CDC or WHO guidance on whether screaming and yelling is bad for the spread, I’m going to assume an angry protester at a super spreader stage could cause some major hot spots.
Definitely don’t want to get into the politics or issues of the protests, but when you strictly look at the covid-19 impacts, it’s not good. Hopefully (for many reasons) they end soon.
Edit: even now I was looking at twitter/periscope and I see very peaceful protests in Cincinnati, Philly and Austin taking place right now.
Definitely don’t want to get into the politics or issues of the protests, but when you strictly look at the covid-19 impacts, it’s not good. Hopefully (for many reasons) they end soon.
Edit: even now I was looking at twitter/periscope and I see very peaceful protests in Cincinnati, Philly and Austin taking place right now.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I posted a link previously to a study that showed droplet expulsion based on different volumes of speaking. I don't think you need to wait for the CDC and WHO.
shader
Footballguy
Yeah I was kind of joking. I don’t recall your study, but I’d assume it’s bad. I know that singing in church is really really bad for spread, so I’m going to assume these chants are as well. Just now clicking through and seeing Columbus, Salt Lake as well.
Very traditional protests, but walking in big groups and chanting is a recipe for quick spread.
I think the quarantines have people restless and perhaps people are ready to break out and feel this is an important cause. But man it’s bad news for the virus spread....
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ChiefD
Footballguy
Heck, maybe these are the end times.
If so, I’ve had sex, eaten Chinese food, drank plenty of beer, have heard my 3 kids belly laughs, watched them smile for the first time, run three marathons, and watched the Royals and Chiefs win championships in my lifetime, as have my kids.
I’m pretty confident my wife still loves me since she just left to buy me some more beer. I think I’m good.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Just received an email from a friend of mine. He's a cardiologist, who just happened to take a 6 month sabbatical starting in December. The original plan was to travel through Europe then Asia with his wife and kids. That was quickly short-circuited, so they abbreviated the European segment and hightailed it to Korea (his wife is Korean). Anyway, here is an excerpt from his message:
1. Korea is way more on top of this than most other place in the world, largely because they have employed tried and truth public health measures like widespread testing and contact tracing.
2. I don't know the age of the student, but I'm sure kids and young people will be playing a significant role in C-19 resurging when schools, bars, clubs reopen...regardless of how mildly it affects them.
3. Because our healthcare system is largely financed by elective procedures, the people who do those procedures are incentivized to do a lot, whether they are needed are not. Cardiac stress tests are a great example. Because they are ordered in low risk patients (where disease prevalence is low, remember Baye's theorem?) a lot of false positives result, followed by unnecessary cardiac catheterizations. Thankfully, there are some good doctors out there, who place their patient's wellbeing above financial gain.
A few things I thought were interesting, reinforcing things we've already touched upon:
1. Korea is way more on top of this than most other place in the world, largely because they have employed tried and truth public health measures like widespread testing and contact tracing.
2. I don't know the age of the student, but I'm sure kids and young people will be playing a significant role in C-19 resurging when schools, bars, clubs reopen...regardless of how mildly it affects them.
3. Because our healthcare system is largely financed by elective procedures, the people who do those procedures are incentivized to do a lot, whether they are needed are not. Cardiac stress tests are a great example. Because they are ordered in low risk patients (where disease prevalence is low, remember Baye's theorem?) a lot of false positives result, followed by unnecessary cardiac catheterizations. Thankfully, there are some good doctors out there, who place their patient's wellbeing above financial gain.
prosopis
Arizona Chupacabra
I have been involved in Krav Maga for quite a while and I have been an instructor for aprox 8-10 years?
Today I went and helped pack the gym up into a self storage. The gym has gone bust and I am done instructing due to the Covid shutdown. Pretty sad day but I know I helped a lot of people through the years. Likewise I was helped a lot mentally and physically. It is an experience I will cherish till the day I day. Lot of sweat, blood and tears. I guess time marches on and on.....
Today I went and helped pack the gym up into a self storage. The gym has gone bust and I am done instructing due to the Covid shutdown. Pretty sad day but I know I helped a lot of people through the years. Likewise I was helped a lot mentally and physically. It is an experience I will cherish till the day I day. Lot of sweat, blood and tears. I guess time marches on and on.....
tri-man 47
Footballguy
No weekend lull at Covid worldometers. 124,000 new cases; over 4,000 deaths. Brazil surges over 30,000 new cases and is crossing over 500,000 total reported cases (2.3K/million). Russia is moving past 400,000 reported cases (2.7K/million).
For reported cases per million (for countries with over 1M population):
Qatar - 19.2K/M - !
Bahrain - 6.3K ........ Kuwait - 6.1K ....... Spain - 6.1K
Singapore - 5.9K ....... USA - 5.5K ........ Ireland - 5.0K ....... Belgium - 5.0K ........ Chile - 5.0K
Peru - 4.7K ........ Belarus - 4.4K ........ UK - 4.0K
For reported cases per million (for countries with over 1M population):
Qatar - 19.2K/M - !
Bahrain - 6.3K ........ Kuwait - 6.1K ....... Spain - 6.1K
Singapore - 5.9K ....... USA - 5.5K ........ Ireland - 5.0K ....... Belgium - 5.0K ........ Chile - 5.0K
Peru - 4.7K ........ Belarus - 4.4K ........ UK - 4.0K
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Your friend has some of these details incorrect.
The tutor was not who they traced the gay bar outbreak back to. The first case there was a 29 year old. The 25 year old tutor is who they traced the Coupang outbreak to and he caught it from the gay club outbreak.
The "delivery driver" was one of the coupang employees that caught it many degrees of separation later.
I don't know how old the student that gave it to the cab driver was. Noraebangs (coin karaoke rooms) are like photobooths where people pay to sit in these tiny booths and sing karaoke together. Cant believe that right now such a thing would be allowed.
One thing that this outbreak tracing illustrates yet again is how a system like this would never work here. Plenty of these cases lied about various things and were caught because the government had access to credit card records and phone location data. The 25 year old tutor told investigators that he was unemployed. They figured out he was lying.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Good to know, but I think you are too pessimistic wrt contact tracing. Just like not overloading hospitals, it is an inexact science, but still useful in controlling the pandemic.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
In korea they traced 7 steps forward from the 25 year old tutor because they had access to records that here would be off limits.
I am not saying don't do any of it, as it is important to still try and link backward how people caught it to calculate risks, and backward is much easier.
We just cant do what they do. So holding it up as a system we should emulate is misguided(not saying that is what you are doing here).
Battersbox
Footballguy
I mentioned this the other day regarding Qatar. Huge numbers of tests and cases, but 36 deaths out of over 55k cases?
Either they've got it figured out, or these numbers are straight b.s.
beer 30
Footballguy
Let’s not forget the shovelsHeck, maybe these are the end times.
If so, I’ve had sex, eaten Chinese food, drank plenty of beer, have heard my 3 kids belly laughs, watched them smile for the first time, run three marathons, and watched the Royals and Chiefs win championships in my lifetime, as have my kids.
I’m pretty confident my wife still loves me since she just left to buy me some more beer. I think I’m good.
TheWinz
Footballguy
And on the flip side:
- 10 countries (5 in Asia, 4 in Africa, and 1 in Oceania) over 1M population have ZERO reported deaths
- Asia, which makes up 60% of the world's population, accounts for only 8% of the deaths
- Africa, which makes up 17% of the world's population, accounts for only 1% of the deaths
I kinda believe Africa's numbers more than Asia's, considering the life expectancy for men in Africa is only 61, and 65 for women. Both numbers are 10 years or more below every other continent.
Navin Johnson
Footballguy
Hard to find that sweet spot where it doesn't fog up my glasses. If it's already on and I just have a short trip, I'll leave it on in the car.
Navin Johnson
Footballguy
We just had our first practice Thursday. Had to be outside and I had to have two groups of 4, one on the court and one in the volleyball pit doing ladder drills and such. Each kid had to have their own ball, no passing or rebounding for others allowed, so lots of ball handling/shooting. Did 3 one-hour sessions.
Navin Johnson
Footballguy
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
eaten Chinese food??Heck, maybe these are the end times.
If so, I’ve had sex, eaten Chinese food, drank plenty of beer, have heard my 3 kids belly laughs, watched them smile for the first time, run three marathons, and watched the Royals and Chiefs win championships in my lifetime, as have my kids.
I’m pretty confident my wife still loves me since she just left to buy me some more beer. I think I’m good.
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
Reported by Chinese Media: U.S.Medical Bill Causes Shortness of Breath
DENVER, United States, May 30 (Xinhua) -- A high school teacher from the U.S. state of Colorado was stunned to receive a medical bill of 840,000 U.S. dollars for his treatment after contracting COVID-19, local media reported on Saturday.
The bill received by Robert Dennis, a Centennial High School teacher, covered Dennis' time at Denver's Sky Ridge hospital, where he was put on a ventilator in the intensive care unit for two weeks.
However, what was not included was Dennis' three weeks at Spalding Rehabilitation Hospital, or his wife's trips to the emergency room when she was also fighting the virus. The couple estimated that their total bills would top one and a half million dollars.
The couple had insurance and they planned to call to make sure that they were covered.
"Seeing that number yesterday for the first bill, it took your breath away again," the wife said, "It's scary. I don't care how much you have covered. It's scary to see that kind of number and not really know."
DENVER, United States, May 30 (Xinhua) -- A high school teacher from the U.S. state of Colorado was stunned to receive a medical bill of 840,000 U.S. dollars for his treatment after contracting COVID-19, local media reported on Saturday.
The bill received by Robert Dennis, a Centennial High School teacher, covered Dennis' time at Denver's Sky Ridge hospital, where he was put on a ventilator in the intensive care unit for two weeks.
However, what was not included was Dennis' three weeks at Spalding Rehabilitation Hospital, or his wife's trips to the emergency room when she was also fighting the virus. The couple estimated that their total bills would top one and a half million dollars.
The couple had insurance and they planned to call to make sure that they were covered.
"Seeing that number yesterday for the first bill, it took your breath away again," the wife said, "It's scary. I don't care how much you have covered. It's scary to see that kind of number and not really know."
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Penguin
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
The UK out of the blue lifted their shielding policy and said it was safe for the sheltered populations (high risk) go out now.
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Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
Yes, doctors have realized for a while that pumping oxygen into the lungs does not always help when the micro blood vessels that carry oxygen into the blood stream are badly damaged. This is one reason why it is more difficult for severe cases to recovery from a CV pneumonia.
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ericttspikes
Footballguy
With fairly steady new cases and fewer hospitalizations, I had wondered if there was a possibility the virus was becoming weaker. Found this today. Would be great news if true.
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-184358113.html
New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says
ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.
"In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy," said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy's coronavirus contagion.
"The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago," he told RAI television.
Italy has the third highest death toll in the world from COVID-19, with 33,415 people dying since the outbreak came to light on Feb. 21. It has the sixth highest global tally of cases at 233,019.
However new infections and fatalities have fallen steadily in May and the country is unwinding some of the most rigid lockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent.
A second doctor from northern Italy told the national ANSA news agency that he was also seeing the coronavirus weaken.
"The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today," said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.
"It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different."
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-184358113.html
New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says
ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.
"In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy," said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy's coronavirus contagion.
"The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago," he told RAI television.
Italy has the third highest death toll in the world from COVID-19, with 33,415 people dying since the outbreak came to light on Feb. 21. It has the sixth highest global tally of cases at 233,019.
However new infections and fatalities have fallen steadily in May and the country is unwinding some of the most rigid lockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent.
A second doctor from northern Italy told the national ANSA news agency that he was also seeing the coronavirus weaken.
"The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today," said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.
"It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different."
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
You left out the following quote from Dr Zangrillo which leads me to believe that he has an agenda:
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Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
ericttspikes
Footballguy
What is the agenda of the other doctor, Dr. Bassetti?
Matteo Bassetti is Head of the Infectious Diseases Clinic of the San Martino-IST University Hospital in Genoa and Full Professor of Infectious Diseases of the University of Genoa, Italy. Dr Bassetti studied at the University of Genoa School of Medicine and continued his medical education at the Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, USA with an Infectious Diseases fellowship. Dr Bassetti is chair of the Critically Ill Study Group of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID). Dr Bassetti is also co-chair of the Intra-abdominal Infections Study Group of the International Society of Chemotherapy (ISC). He is the president of the Italian Society of Anti-infective Therapy (SITA) and member of executive committee for the battle against antimicrobial resistance of the Italian Minister of Health (PNCAR). He is member-elected (2018-2022) of International Council of the Immunocompromised Host Society (ICHS). From 2019 he is member of the council of International Sepsis Forum (ISF). He serves on the editorial board of several prestigious international journals. Author or co-author of 600 papers (H index 60; 12500 citations) published in International peer-review journals and several chapter’s book on antibiotic therapy, fungal infections, antimicrobial resistances, infections in immunocompromised patients and critically ill patients.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
I wonder if getting smaller initial viral loads is the reason it is weaker. In February and March, people would have been getting exposed to much larger viral loads in Italy which would have made it easier for the virus to overwhelm a person's immune system.
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culdeus
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
I'm not high risk and I'm not interested in flying. Who said you are paranoid?
Don Hutson
Footballguy
People who are now getting infected are possibly only getting infected by a tiny amount of virus which the body's immune system can better handle.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Don Hutson
Footballguy
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the moops
Footballguy
I imagine that with social distancing and restaurants closed and people working from home - the people that are contracting it are doing so in a way where their exposure to the virus is limited
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
Restaurants are doing more take out business. I drove around this evening and there were long drive-thru lines at Popeyes and Taco Bell.
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
And I bet Italians aren't kissing each other and talking with their faces 12 inches from each other like usual.
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tri-man 47
Footballguy
A Sunday dip at Covid worldometers ...but still one of the highest daily new case counts with almost 109,000. Reported deaths today at almost 3,200. The usual culprits for the counts - U.S. - Brazil - Russia - Peru - India. Big jumps the past couple of days (on a low base) in Haiti, which seems worrisome.
the moops
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
The mere occurrence of viral infection is highly dependent on the number of individual virions trasmitted upon exposure. The exact tipping point is not known (and probably not consistent), but it is known that a healthy person's body will virtually always dispense with a small number of virions pretty handily. I believe that this is even true of the most notorious of viruses such as HIV and Ebola.
Furthermore, severity of viral infection is dependent on "dosage" in the same way. Viral infection is not simply a "yes/no" proposition. It's very much possible to have a sufficient number of SARS-CoV-2 virions to just barely get you over the hump to "measurably infected", but still not enough virions to get you severely sick -- or even all that sick at all.
Where the virus physically ends up in your body also makes a difference. Some COVID infections only latch on to the back of the throat and never make it into the lung tissue. That type of infection usually causes the milder forms of COVID-19 -- the kinds of symptoms easily fought off at home with TLC and rest.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I got all that. But why are people getting smaller viral loads now than previously?
Doug B
Footballguy
I think simple awareness of the virus — and the behavioral changes that resulted — have significantly reduced viral loads “in the wild”.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Perfect example: Yesterday I went for a bike ride with my daughter. We like to go to a river crossing and see the ducks. There was a hard of hearing very old couple there watching too. My daughter says hello. They start talking to her. Start off keeping distance, slowly but surely they get closer and closer. I keep having to move us slowly backward. Finally after enough time of them continuously approaching I pretend to get a text that says dinner is ready and we go on.
Previously they would have been right next to us and my daughter would have talked their ears off.
