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It's really contagious and kids will be going back to school (yes) in a month or two. A small number of people can probably bunker themselves in for the duration. Those estimates are as high as 30% of people, but those models seem questionable.
I feel like you're misrepresenting "flatten the curve" a little bit. Yes, part of it was to slow down so healthcare facilities could ramp up somewhat. But there's always been a limit to how much it was possible to ramp up. There was never a plan to ramp up our healthcare system to handle 10 times its normal capacity so that we could handle a spike. That would have been impossible.
I didn’t think they did but I stand corrected if you’re right. I know AZ didn’t. They had a plan that was pretty much ignored for reasons that shouldn’t be discussed in this forum.
Good point made here.
They don't have idiots who think the government is taking away their rights by telling people to do something sensible line wearing a ####### mask.
Running this through the translator...are you saying that they're NOT re-opening in the same manner as the U.S?
Yeah, if they just reopened like nothing ever happened, they absolutely would. That's not what they're doing from what I've seen. They're doing masks and social distancing and no large crowds, etc. And there's still a good chance they'll eventually have some more spikes.
If the contest went on forever, then the "time schedule" thing might make sense. We would have front-loaded our deaths, they would have more deaths later.
You keep posting this wrong statement. Can you stop? I have corrected you many times about it and you even agreed with my posts but you seem to be keep putting up this false narrative around death rates in early states. They were much lower that that since reported cases were hugely unreported in those states. This is the third time I am posting this but NYC random anti-body testing show that around 20% of NYC residents had the virus - that shows 1mm cases in NYC alone. NY state total cases right now are at just over 400k. Similar under reporting of cases occurred in NJ and your home state of CT and the reason is they did not have adequate testing. I would say NY state is under reported by about 1mm cases and NJ and CT probably have similar amounts of under reporting. The case fatality rates were never 7 to 9 percent and always been closer to 1%.
This makes some sense.
Yes, they definitely could see a spike in the fall/winter. That gives vaccine companies another 2-3 months to work. That allows their economies to function. In the interim, they can work on building up their contact tracing and their testing capabilities.
It's not just re-opening. It's what people do after things are re-opened and how they act. Like continuing to wear masks and social distance. People here seemed to think that re-opening things meant back to normal.
No, I will not stop! You ain't my mom, so don't talk to me like you are. I am posting actual numbers from Worldometer. If you have a problem with me posting actual numbers from the website that most everyone has been using, take it up with them.
The NJ Governor just officially walked back plans to open up indoor dining beginning this Thursday, citing the spikes seen in other states which have allowed it.
Maybe, but their current baseline is much lower. Meaning that the "background radiation" of cases even in former hotspots like Italy is really low now. Low baseline, low spikes -- and more "isolatable" spikes.
Ok, well your analysis is completely wrong and you are posting useless information. I will just need to keep correcting you I guess.
But why are you trying to derive a mortality rate from number's that everyone knows is wrong.
Are you saying WHY is most everyone going to get this exactly? or...Why is MOST EVERYONE going to get this EXACTLY? or...Why is most everyone going to GET THIS EXACTLY?
No I am not, they are very clear that they are pulling reported cases and posting it. They are clear they are not including anything other than a reported case from their sources, which are government websites that report cases based on if you have tested positive. They are not covering anything other than that or the numerous unreported cases. I am correcting your usage of that information and the conclusions you are drawing from that information.
Greetings Doug,
I fully understand the overall point you're trying to make but wasn't that whole antibody study claiming a million NYCers actually had it debunked, or at least the results of the testing was considered very unreliable?
Regardless of the actual percentages, I wouldn't be surprised that death rates are running lower than before for a few reasons. First, the medical profession has learned a lot, I'm sure, about how to deal with cases as they occur. Second, retirement homes were hit hard early on, which led to many deaths from those who were most susceptible, and I have to think states are being more cautious now with those facilities. Third, the precautions being taken (such as masks) might help to limit the spread to the unsuspecting (e.g., contact with the elderly) who are at greater risk of death. Whether the death rates have truly come down or if they've always been more modest than first appeared, that's some good news. That said, I really don't want to come down with this nasty virus.
You can say you are correcting me all you want, but you ain't. When I post numbers that aren't from a website, then you can correct me.
NY state continues to conduct it and it continues to show such a high percentage of cases. Most recent results - https://dailyvoice.com/new-york/whiteplains/news/covid-19-new-antibody-test-results-released-for-hudson-valley-for-first-time-in-six-weeks/789445/
We don't know them... And we probably won't ever know full number of actual cases. However, studies are being done on case fatality rate and would judge those rather than pulling from Worldometers. That site is good and has a use but not on fatality rates. Here is a good article on topic and some estimates for certain areas.
I agree. Yesterday, Italy had only 174 new cases for the entire country (compared to 6000 daily cases at their peak), and they have averaged fewer than 500 daily cases over the past month. Those 174 cases will be relatively easy to isolate and trace.
That is a good question with no easy answer, you would need the raw data of deaths and raw data from the antibody studies to get started. Then adjust those numbers to the general population's demographics.
I spoke to two restaurants in my hood and both are forgoing indoor dining in favor of outdoor + takeout. As long as they are allowed to serve noise to go, I think they're going to survive. Neither one thinks that indoor dining is a good idea these days and they think it may actually scare away customers.
I would say that the death rate based on reported cases is a valuable stat.
I thought he explained it pretty well, but another way to think of the same thing...
Its a dumb way to think of things because there are tons of asymptomatic people who are testing positive. Not only sick people are getting tested.
It's not necessary to be a #### here. If you couldn't understand the point being made, that's on you.
To go get a ribeye from a grocery store, or to go get a ribeye and eat in at a restaurant?
