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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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13 minutes ago, CR69 said:

How would it be unconstitutional?

It would be a regulation that would infringe upon Congress's right or duty to act under the Commerce Clause of the Constitution, put into existence by the Interstate Commerce Act of 1897, if I'm not mistaken. Congress was explicitly given the authority to act. It's why they're able to regulate businesses under the CRA of '64. That's where regulating or mandating how businesses act comes from. 

Edited by woodstock
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47 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

And how many people from NY are heading out to the Sunbelt states for vacations now? Or really anywhere, doesn't have to be NY. I know they are shutting down beaches & bars but it's not across the board. If you can't go to FL, head to GA or SC. Here in SC, it's hit or miss on mask adherence, dine-in is happening and graduation parties are in full swing. Some are taking it seriously but most are moving on.

Us NYers like to go to the Hamptons or Jersey shore this time of year.  I worry about a spread at some of those locations (lots of clubs, etc. that get absolutely crazy packed). Governor Murphy in NJ has already been talking about those issues.

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6 minutes ago, CR69 said:

That actually still exists in airports like SFO, they have a contract with TSA though. 

Without knowing anything about it whatsoever, I assume that was part of some huge pork package.

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6 minutes ago, woodstock said:

It would be a regulation that would infringe upon Congress's right or duty to act under the Interstate Commerce Clause of the Constitution, if I'm not mistaken. Congress was explicitly given the authority to act. It's why they're able to regulate businesses under the CRA of '64. That's where regulating or mandating how businesses act comes from. 

What interstate commerce is impeded by making johnny red hat wear a mask to go pickup a socket set?

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6 minutes ago, culdeus said:

What interstate commerce is impeded by making johnny red hat wear a mask to go pickup a socket set?

It's not what is impeded, it's who is doing the impeding. Congress was specifically mentioned and delegated the duty of regulating interstate commerce. The president has little authority on the matter, no matter how much we might like it to be so. 

https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/commerce_clause

Edited by woodstock
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Case slightly relevant, if not perfectly so. Sometimes Congress doesn't even have the authority to act or mandate commerce.  

Recently, the Supreme Court addressed the Commerce Clause in NFIB v. Sebelius, 567 US. 519 (2012). In Sebelius, the Court addressed the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act (AFA), which sought to require uninsured individuals to secure health insurance in an attempt to stabilize the health insurance market. Focusing on Lopez's requirement that Congress regulate only commercial activity, the Court held that the individual mandate could not be enacted under the Commerce Clause. The Court stated that requiring the purchase of health insurance under the AFA was not the regulation of commercial activity so much as inactivity and was, accordingly, impermissible under the Commerce Clause. 

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7 minutes ago, woodstock said:

It's not what is impeded, it's who is doing the impeding. Congress was specifically mentioned and delegated the duty of regulating interstate commerce. The president has little authority on the matter, no matter how much we might like it to be so. 

https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/commerce_clause

I don’t think requiring masks in public falls under interstate commerce but I’m not a constitutional lawyer. 

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One out of every 587 residents of New Jersey has died from COVID.  Extrapolate that to the US and you have 563,879 deaths

4 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Us NYers like to go to the Hamptons or Jersey shore this time of year.  I worry about a spread at some of those locations (lots of clubs, etc. that get absolutely crazy packed). Governor Murphy in NJ has already been talking about those issues.

If I lived in NY I wouldn't be vacationing in NJ.  NY's death rate per positive case is only 7.55%, but NJ sits at 8.57%.  I'd steer clear of CT also (9.32%), but I hear Texas is nice this time of year (1.53%).

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Just now, CR69 said:

I don’t think requiring masks in public falls under interstate commerce but I’m not a constitutional lawyer. 

He was requiring businesses to do it by a mandate. It's an action that implicates interstate commerce. 

I am also not a constitutional lawyer, though I did go to law school as a flunky.  

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9 minutes ago, woodstock said:

It's not what is impeded, it's who is doing the impeding. Congress was specifically mentioned and delegated the duty of regulating interstate commerce. The president has little authority on the matter, no matter how much we might like it to be so. 

https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/commerce_clause

If the president told congress that they need to act on a facemask requirement, they would act. Instead he won't wear one and hasn't even hinted that he would go long with it.

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1 minute ago, TheWinz said:

One out of every 587 residents of New Jersey has died from COVID.  Extrapolate that to the US and you have 563,879 deaths

If I lived in NY I wouldn't be vacationing in NJ.  NY's death rate per positive case is only 7.55%, but NJ sits at 8.57%.  I'd steer clear of CT also (9.32%), but I hear Texas is nice this time of year (1.53%).

Well to be clear your numbers are completely wrong since you are basing them on faulty case numbers.   No reputable source believes that case fatality rate is 7%.

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3 minutes ago, the moops said:

If the president told congress that they need to act on a facemask requirement, they would act. Instead he won't wear one and hasn't even hinted that he would go long with it.

Right, and I haven't spent one word talking about him or defending him. A response to him is best left to the PSF in "Government Responses To The Corona Virus" thread. I intend not to pass judgment at all but to point out the problem with a mandate of wearing masks with an emphasis on the enforcement by businesses via executive order. It seems to me to be a fairly bright constitutional line, and I'll leave it at that. 

Where's Henry Ford? 

Edited by woodstock
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And lest it seem I'm defending or advocating constitutionality over saving lives, I'm really actually not necessarily doing so. Just pointing out the problem with Biden's professed tactic of using an executive order to mandate mask wearing through the means with which he's said he'll implement.

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1 minute ago, Redwes25 said:

Well to be clear your numbers are completely wrong since you are basing them on faulty case numbers.   No reputable source believes that case fatality rate is 7%.

My numbers?  They are not my numbers.  They belong to worldometer, and they get their data directly from each state.  I'm just a messenger.

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47 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Fair enough. Biden has already said though if he was POTUS he would use the Executive Branch to force businesses to require masks for anyone entering. There's always a work around on these things. We came up with the power to detain every Japanese-American citizen, we were able to limit the amount of food and basic supplies people could buy, we took over private businesses to make war machines, we forced cars makers to install seat belts in every car, etc. They could get an actual mask mandate through. The issue is enforcement. We needed bi-partisan unity from our leaders so that we didn't politicize it. A federal requirement to wear a mask is no good if counties have citizens, officials and LEOs who are unwilling to uphold it or feel the use of a mask vs. no mask is some kind of social-political statement. 

Sorry, bud, but this lacks a bit of nuance. The government can do a lot of things for sure. Compelling activity usually falls under war power acts given the President by Congress. Congress cannot delegate authority away from the states and back to the federal government, however much it might please us.  

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Just now, TheWinz said:

My numbers?  They are not my numbers.  They belong to worldometer, and they get their data directly from each state.  I'm just a messenger.

No you are playing them off as case fatality rate.  Worldometers is clear they are taking reported cases which are positive test results. That seriously under counts actual cases.  Not sure what you don't understand here.   Feels like you just want to be difficult on purposes.   Either way you are posting in correct information and it is entirely unclear why you keep doing it.  Either way I will continue to correct your false statements.

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4 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

My numbers?  They are not my numbers.  They belong to worldometer, and they get their data directly from each state.  I'm just a messenger.

You need to read the footnotes they provide as to what numbers they are reporting.  Each state is different.  

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1 minute ago, Redwes25 said:

No you are playing them off as case fatality rate.  Worldometers is clear they are taking reported cases which are positive test results. That seriously under counts actual cases.  Not sure what you don't understand here.   Feels like you just want to be difficult on purposes.   Either way you are posting in correct information and it is entirely unclear why you keep doing it.  Either way I will continue to correct your false statements.

Do you agree NY's population is 19,453,560, give or take, per Worldometer?

Do you agree NY's COVID deaths are 31,496 currently, give or take, per Worldometer?

Please answer these 2 very simple questions with yes or no, thanx.

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1 hour ago, ChiefD said:

So, what are the cases and percentages for your local county?  For me:

County population: 600,000

Positive tests: 1,692 (per this page, which was put out by our county)

Total number of tests: 38,792

Positive percentage: 4.4%

Deaths: 86 

Death percentage relative to positive tests: 5.08%

 

Geez, we’re looking good compared to what the rest of you have posted, though we have spiked in June.

Kitsap County, WA

Population:  275,000

Positive tests:  224

Total tests:  11,124

Positive percentage:  2%

Deaths:  2

Death percentage relative to positive tests:  0.9%

 

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9 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Do you agree NY's population is 19,453,560, give or take, per Worldometer?

Do you agree NY's COVID deaths are 31,496 currently, give or take, per Worldometer?

Please answer these 2 very simple questions with yes or no, thanx.

I agree with those statements but that has nothing with case fatality rate.   Since, you love that website so much here is link from them saying they believe Case Fatality Rate for NYC is 1.4%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

My favorite line from that link - "If we base our calculation (deaths / cases) on the number of reported cases (rather than on the actual ones), we will greatly overestimate the fatality rate."

Will you believe me now that saying over 7% is wrong?

 

ETA - fixed a type on my post as they actually say 1.4% and not 1.7% in my original post.  Sorry for overstating the rate.

Edited by Redwes25
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3 minutes ago, woodstock said:

Sorry, bud, but this lacks a bit of nuance. The government can do a lot of things for sure. Compelling activity usually falls under war power acts given the President by Congress. Congress cannot delegate authority away from the states and back to the federal government, however much it might please us.  

I am pretty sure every State is getting Federal money for COVID. That could easily be tied to masks just like school funding is tied to testing through NCLB. There's generally a workaround for almost anything and if it is challenged, it will be tied up in courts and ultimately the SC may decide. Anyway, no reason to argue something that isn't going to happen. We just need to hope every single State does their part now. 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

I am pretty sure every State is getting Federal money for COVID. That could easily be tied to masks just like school funding is tied to testing through NCLB. There's generally a workaround for almost anything and if it is challenged, it will be tied up in courts and ultimately the SC may decide. Anyway, no reason to argue something that isn't going to happen. We just need to hope every single State does their part now. 

That's way different than an executive order coming from the President under powers he doesn't possess. 

But yes, we need to hope all the states do their part as that ship has sailed.  

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2 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

I agree with those statements but that has nothing with case fatality rate.   Since, you love that website so much here is link from them saying they believe Case Fatality Rate for NYC is 1.7%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

My favorite line from that link - "If we base our calculation (deaths / cases) on the number of reported cases (rather than on the actual ones), we will greatly overestimate the fatality rate."

Will you believe me now that saying over 7% is wrong?

My statement above was...

NY's death rate per positive case is only 7.55%

Where in this statement do I ever say Case Fatality Rate?  What part of my statement is false?  The fact is NY has reported 31,496 deaths out of 417,328 positives, and the math works out to 7.55%.

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Just now, TheWinz said:

My statement above was...

NY's death rate per positive case is only 7.55%

Where in this statement do I ever say Case Fatality Rate?  What part of my statement is false?  The fact is NY has reported 31,496 deaths out of 417,328 positives, and the math works out to 7.55%.

That is a misleading statement and you are circulating incorrect information.   

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1 minute ago, Redwes25 said:

That is a misleading statement and you are circulating incorrect information.   

I'm not pulling these numbers out of my ###.  And just because you read CFR when I never typed it, how does that make my statement misleading?  Perhaps you misread my statement and rushed to judgement?

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2 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I'm not pulling these numbers out of my ###.  And just because you read CFR when I never typed it, how does that make my statement misleading?  Perhaps you misread my statement and rushed to judgement?

No it is misleading to say over 7% of people who get this virus die.  I will correct it every time you post it.

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Fair enough. Biden has already said though if he was POTUS he would use the Executive Branch to force businesses to require masks for anyone entering. There's always a work around on these things. We came up with the power to detain every Japanese-American citizen, we were able to limit the amount of food and basic supplies people could buy, we took over private businesses to make war machines, we forced cars makers to install seat belts in every car, etc. They could get an actual mask mandate through. The issue is enforcement. We needed bi-partisan unity from our leaders so that we didn't politicize it. A federal requirement to wear a mask is no good if counties have citizens, officials and LEOs who are unwilling to uphold it or feel the use of a mask vs. no mask is some kind of social-political statement. 

this is key.  I'm not sure this is possible any more.  There was a time when Americans could come together for the good of the nation but in the current political climate, i just don't think that's possible. 

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4 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

No it is misleading to say over 7% of people who get this virus die.  I will correct it every time you post it.

The problem is that you're correctly assuming that there are undiagnosed cases out there. However, since we cannot know exactly how many cases there are because of that very premise, we are forced to run the numbers we do have. We know it's not 7%, but we don't know what it actually is.

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6 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

No it is misleading to say over 7% of people who get this virus die.  I will correct it every time you post it.

When did I say that?  You are blaming the author, when you should be blaming the reader.

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24 minutes ago, woodstock said:

That's way different than an executive order coming from the President under powers he doesn't possess. 

But yes, we need to hope all the states do their part as that ship has sailed.  

would it pass constitutional muster to issue an EO compelling states to enact their own mask regulations?  Perhaps dangle financial aid or something of the sort?  Barring that, a hardy "please and thanks in advance" would be a hell of a lot better than what we have right now.

This country isn't set up for national regulations.  It's not what we do.  We have 51 different sets of seatbelt laws, motorcycle helmet laws, DUI regulations, gun regulations, etc.  Overall, the states are more alike than different.  I'd assume mask usage could be similar.

One thing and EO probably could constitutionally regulate is mask usage for employees thru OSHA.  That's better than nothing.

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10 minutes ago, moleculo said:

this is key.  I'm not sure this is possible any more.  There was a time when Americans could come together for the good of the nation but in the current political climate, i just don't think that's possible. 

We have seen some changes in tune from GOP State leaders. There is one particular man who could have the biggest possible positive impact on mask wearing right now. A change in his attitudes, message and behavior would have a large impact IMO. 

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2 minutes ago, moleculo said:

would it pass constitutional muster to issue an EO compelling states to enact their own mask regulations?  Perhaps dangle financial aid or something of the sort?  Barring that, a hardy "please and thanks in advance" would be a hell of a lot better than what we have right now.

This country isn't set up for national regulations.  It's not what we do.  We have 51 different sets of seatbelt laws, motorcycle helmet laws, DUI regulations, gun regulations, etc.  Overall, the states are more alike than different.  I'd assume mask usage could be similar.

One thing and EO probably could constitutionally regulate is mask usage for employees thru OSHA.  That's better than nothing.

It’s been used before- 

https://alcoholpolicy.niaaa.nih.gov/the-1984-national-minimum-drinking-age-act

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2 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

We have seen some changes in tune from GOP State leaders. There is one particular man who could have the biggest possible positive impact on mask wearing right now. A change in his attitudes, message and behavior would have a large impact IMO. 

Agreed, but I'm not holding my breath.  That would require him to publicly change his mind - something i don't think he's ever admitted to doing.

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8 minutes ago, Kal El said:

The problem is that you're correctly assuming that there are undiagnosed cases out there. However, since we cannot know exactly how many cases there are because of that very premise, we are forced to run the numbers we do have. We know it's not 7%, but we don't know what it actually is.

I agree we don't know exact rate but we do know it is not 7%.  I have not seen anyone actual state that it is 7% and even the place he is pulling that info from says it is an overstatement.  What is misleading is to compare one state at over 7% with massive under reporting and to another state at 1.5% and suggest there are improved outcomes at the state reporting 1.5%. That is an incorrect statement.   I am posting his actual statement below, which is complete mess of useless information.  He has been posting this same line for several weeks now.   

 

If I lived in NY I wouldn't be vacationing in NJ.  NY's death rate per positive case is only 7.55%, but NJ sits at 8.57%.  I'd steer clear of CT also (9.32%), but I hear Texas is nice this time of year (1.53%).

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4 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

I agree we don't know exact rate but we do know it is not 7%.  I have not seen anyone actual state that it is 7% and even the place he is pulling that info from says it is an overstatement.  What is misleading is to compare one state at over 7% with massive under reporting and to another state at 1.5% and suggest there are improved outcomes at the state reporting 1.5%. That is an incorrect statement.   I am posting his actual statement below, which is complete mess of useless information.  He has been posting this same line for several weeks now.   

 

If I lived in NY I wouldn't be vacationing in NJ.  NY's death rate per positive case is only 7.55%, but NJ sits at 8.57%.  I'd steer clear of CT also (9.32%), but I hear Texas is nice this time of year (1.53%).

Dallas county is sitting at .23% lower than even Korea so take that!

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Statewide mask order in Kansas. Indoors and anywhere outdoors where social distancing can't be maintained. 

I run a rec commission. Basically like a YMCA. All but gonna shut down our fitness centers, rec centers and summer camps down.

Nice job America.   

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1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

Statewide mask order in Kansas. Indoors and anywhere outdoors where social distancing can't be maintained. 

I run a rec commission. Basically like a YMCA. All but gonna shut down our fitness centers, rec centers and summer camps down.

Nice job America.   

Sorry to hear that will shut things down.

We collectively didn't do this right. More shutdowns and pauses will be coming.

Priorities are all screwed up in this country. We need to do all of these mitigation factors so kids can go back to school, not so 20-somethings can go party at the bar. I'm already hearing from local school administrators on Long Island that school in-person ain't happening. And we have some of the best virus numbers in the country.

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14 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

No bueno. My understanding is that staffing is a much bigger issue than beds. When they start triaging care that’s when the deaths will increase significantly. More push for people to sign DNR/DNIs, more people being sent home with oxygen rather than getting hospital care and more push for hospice care. It’s getting depressing really quick.

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