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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (6 Viewers)

The Commish said:
Who is "our" and "we" here?  To my knowledge, it's every many for himself.  We have no collective goal as a nation for certain.  It doesn't seem we ever have.  States sort of have a goal and I think it's something along the lines of "don't screw this thing up so you're on the national news".  Seems that local municipalities are the one focused on preventing spread (maybe?  sometimes?)  I have a personal goal of keeping my kids/wife as safe as possible and making this screwed up time as painless as possible for them.
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My local government building opened to the public recently. Doesn’t make a ton of sense seeing as how everything was available digitally. Found out from an executive level individual that has been in the meetings that the decision was based on the feedback (#####ing) from two prominent business people. They wanted it open because it allowed them more billable time with more employees and allowed them some intimidation factor when dealing with certain permitting offices in person. 
 

So, we are allowing unfettered access to local offices because two wealthy guys wanted to be able to make a few extra bucks and speed up their permits by perhaps a day.

 
Dezbelief said:
Not only is the POtuS screwing the US with more cases and deaths than necessary, he's screwing the world too from having all available treatment methods at their finger tips. How much hate is this going to bring on the US from our allies and enemies alike?
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if they didnt buy them up people would slam him for not buying more.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Great idea, want to share the Florida Covid-19 site from the Florida Dept of Health so this is OFFICIAL 

Florida

I am going to break down my Zip Code which has reported ZERO cases to this point...Tequesta, Jupiter Island, Hobe Sound, nothing to this point. 

But we've closed the BEACHES for 4th of July!
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You're aware of the probable issues with this site, right?  I'd say it's probably relatively close, but I wouldn't take it as gospel.  Unfortunately, there are rumblings out there that our politicians aren't being as honest with what goes into that site as they should be.

 
The Commish said:
You're aware of the probable issues with this site, right?  I'd say it's probably relatively close, but I wouldn't take it as gospel.  Unfortunately, there are rumblings out there that our politicians aren't being as honest with what goes into that site as they should be.
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Is there any actual evidence that Florida's numbers are out of whack besides the claims of one disgruntled ex-employee?  People keep alluding to this over and over, but if Florida is manipulating their data to make reopening look smart, they're doing a really ####ty job.

If this were the PSF thread, I would say whatever, let's just let the conspiracy theories roll along.  But this thread should require some evidence to post stuff like this.

 
Terminalxylem said:
Really need to know the test characteristics of the antibody test they’re using to interpret that data.
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The major spike on the right end of the curve seems quite odd.  
 

They need for release their methodology and which antibody test they are using, otherwise their study is meaningless.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Is there any actual evidence that Florida's numbers are out of whack besides the claims of one disgruntled ex-employee?  People keep alluding to this over and over, but if Florida is manipulating their data to make reopening look smart, they're doing a really ####ty job.

If this were the PSF thread, I would say whatever, let's just let the conspiracy theories roll along.  But this thread should require some evidence to post stuff like this.
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At this point it's speculation based on the actions/responses received by local news outlets (at least in my area).  That's why I said "rumblings".  I go to the site daily and there are chunks missing on the regular from one day to the next.  And those chunks are consistently from Orange County and southern Florida.  This just started occurring about three weeks ago....was a smooth running site until then.  "Stuff like this" is a simple word of caution that things aren't consistent from one day to the next on the site.  If that's an issue for this thread, I won't put it out there anymore.  Just figured people would want to know what they're looking at :shrug:  

 
Dezbelief said:
Not only is the POtuS screwing the US with more cases and deaths than necessary, he's screwing the world too from having all available treatment methods at their finger tips. How much hate is this going to bring on the US from our allies and enemies alike?
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There's an entire forum for politics. Tired of asking people to take this there. 

 
travel ball and little league is starting up locally next week (part of phase 3). There has been zero masks or social distancing of the kids at any of the practices. My son has a tournament Monday already. Two parents are allowed but they must social distance and wear a mask. Coaches and umps have to wear masks. Kids only have to wear masks if they want to in the dugout. No handshakes, ump behind pitcher not catcher, change ball every inning, kids line up along fence and not all in dugout. Should be interesting. 

 
jobarules said:
travel ball and little league is starting up locally next week (part of phase 3). There has been zero masks or social distancing of the kids at any of the practices. My son has a tournament Monday already. Two parents are allowed but they must social distance and wear a mask. Coaches and umps have to wear masks. Kids only have to wear masks if they want to in the dugout. No handshakes, ump behind pitcher not catcher, change ball every inning, kids line up along fence and not all in dugout. Should be interesting. 
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Honestly, this sounds pretty reasonable.  

 
jobarules said:
travel ball and little league is starting up locally next week (part of phase 3). There has been zero masks or social distancing of the kids at any of the practices. My son has a tournament Monday already. Two parents are allowed but they must social distance and wear a mask. Coaches and umps have to wear masks. Kids only have to wear masks if they want to in the dugout. No handshakes, ump behind pitcher not catcher, change ball every inning, kids line up along fence and not all in dugout. Should be interesting. 
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Good for them getting back to ball. Is there a reason why can't the kids stay mostly apart? Of course batter and catcher isn't possible, but are they not even trying to stay apart? Hope they have a good summer! 

 
jobarules said:
travel ball and little league is starting up locally next week (part of phase 3). There has been zero masks or social distancing of the kids at any of the practices. My son has a tournament Monday already. Two parents are allowed but they must social distance and wear a mask. Coaches and umps have to wear masks. Kids only have to wear masks if they want to in the dugout. No handshakes, ump behind pitcher not catcher, change ball every inning, kids line up along fence and not all in dugout. Should be interesting. 
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Started here three weeks ago.  No masks, "do your best to distance", no sharing equipment, no handshakes, ump behind the mound.  That's it.  The rest is the same.  And honestly, I don't understand the "ump behind the mound" thing

 
The below article is pretty good, of course it needs to be peer reviewed and other studies needs to confirm the findings.  I pulled out a few of the sentences which i found interesting.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2488-1_reference.pdf

Notably, 42.5% (95% CI 31.5-54.6%) of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections detected across the two surveys were asymptomatic (i.e. did not have symptoms at the time of swab testing and did not develop symptoms afterwards).

...

We found no statistically significant difference in the viral load of symptomatic versus asymptomatic infections (p-values 0.62 and 0.74 for E and RdRp genes, respectively, Exact Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test).

...

We found that none of the children under 10 years of age who took part in the study tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection at either survey, despite at least 13 of them living together with infected family members (Extended Data Table 3). This agrees with a recent study conducted in Iceland.

...

Of the 81 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients across the two surveys, 13 required hospitalization (16.0%). Their age distribution was as follows: 1 (7.7%) aged 41-50, 1 (7.7%) aged 51-60, 4 (30.8%) aged 61-70, 5 (38.5%) aged 71-80 and 2 (15.4%) aged 81-90.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Good for them getting back to ball. Is there a reason why can't the kids stay mostly apart? Of course batter and catcher isn't possible, but are they not even trying to stay apart? Hope they have a good summer! 
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These comments always confuse me.  

In any situation ANY situation where activity is allowed to take place social distancing is disposed of immediately.  

If you "open" something, you are removing social distance requirements, at a minimum.  This goes for planes, trains, restaurants, bars, beaches, and playgrounds.  Do or do not do, there is no try to maintain distancing.

Masking/Face Covering and inside/outside is the only mitigation factor that exist.  

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Too hard to call balls and strikes from 6+ feet behind the catcher I assume?  
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I thought that at first, but there is no social distancing going on at these games, so I'm not sure why they'd draw the line there.  Batter/Catcher aren't 6 feet from each other either.  Just a really weird/random place to draw the line....it seems like it's doing for the sake of doing rather than in the interest of safety.

 
The Commish said:
I thought that at first, but there is no social distancing going on at these games, so I'm not sure why they'd draw the line there.  Batter/Catcher aren't 6 feet from each other either.  Just a really weird/random place to draw the line....it seems like it's doing for the sake of doing rather than in the interest of safety.
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Some of these precautions where the jobs are low paying/volunteer are needed to bring in people that are doing it more or less as a hobby.  I mean they are talking about doing things for the crossing guards that are beyond absurd, but if you can't get people to do the job it's a big problem.  I would guess similar things are happening in this case.

 
MTskibum said:
The below article is pretty good, of course it needs to be peer reviewed and other studies needs to confirm the findings.  I pulled out a few of the sentences which i found interesting.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2488-1_reference.pdf

Notably, 42.5% (95% CI 31.5-54.6%) of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections detected across the two surveys were asymptomatic (i.e. did not have symptoms at the time of swab testing and did not develop symptoms afterwards).

...

We found no statistically significant difference in the viral load of symptomatic versus asymptomatic infections (p-values 0.62 and 0.74 for E and RdRp genes, respectively, Exact Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test).

...

We found that none of the children under 10 years of age who took part in the study tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection at either survey, despite at least 13 of them living together with infected family members (Extended Data Table 3). This agrees with a recent study conducted in Iceland.

...

Of the 81 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients across the two surveys, 13 required hospitalization (16.0%). Their age distribution was as follows: 1 (7.7%) aged 41-50, 1 (7.7%) aged 51-60, 4 (30.8%) aged 61-70, 5 (38.5%) aged 71-80 and 2 (15.4%) aged 81-90.
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The good news is, viral load seems consistent and strengthens the idea that masks are a good idea.  Now maybe we can get passed this nonsense that masks are only necessary if you have symptoms or feel sick.

 
culdeus said:
Some of these precautions where the jobs are low paying/volunteer are needed to bring in people that are doing it more or less as a hobby.  I mean they are talking about doing things for the crossing guards that are beyond absurd, but if you can't get people to do the job it's a big problem.  I would guess similar things are happening in this case.
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Perhaps....anecdotally, our umps are kids on the local highschool teams that have gone through the certifications.  I'm pretty confident they couldn't care less.

 
jobarules said:
Because they're kids. The same thing will happen in camps and school 
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Can't argue that. The more they can stay apart the better of course. Agree that masks aren't a deal there, they are outside.

Larger point: People have their own priorities, but this is one of the main reasons we shut it down to control the spread. So that:

1. We get kids their lives back. School and activities.

2. We get as many people back to work as safely as possible. 

When I see countless throngs of 20-30 somethings partying like it's 1999 with no masks, no distancing, all up in each others faces screaming over the loud music, I can't help but think that's not why we shut it down hard. And rushing back to that behavior is completely going to jeopardize 1 and 2, believe it. It already is, and it's a complete failure and a waste of putting 40 million out of work, spending over $1 trillion on unemployment, etc.

 
The Commish said:
At this point it's speculation based on the actions/responses received by local news outlets (at least in my area).  That's why I said "rumblings".  I go to the site daily and there are chunks missing on the regular from one day to the next.  And those chunks are consistently from Orange County and southern Florida.  This just started occurring about three weeks ago....was a smooth running site until then.  "Stuff like this" is a simple word of caution that things aren't consistent from one day to the next on the site.  If that's an issue for this thread, I won't put it out there anymore.  Just figured people would want to know what they're looking at :shrug:  
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Please don't stop posting your Florida info in this thread.  Of course it's speculation and you've always been clear about that.  Ivan is wrong, imo.  You aren't posting conspiracy theories.  There are leaders and governors and people in the USA who don't think this is a big threat, don't believe in masks, and prioritize the economy over saving lives.  

 
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culdeus said:
These comments always confuse me.  

In any situation ANY situation where activity is allowed to take place social distancing is disposed of immediately.  

If you "open" something, you are removing social distance requirements, at a minimum.  This goes for planes, trains, restaurants, bars, beaches, and playgrounds.  Do or do not do, there is no try to maintain distancing.

Masking/Face Covering and inside/outside is the only mitigation factor that exist.  
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While I get your point, people can definitely stay 6 feet apart or more at the beach or at a restaurant outdoors. Even in those other situations, you can still try to stay apart from as many people as possible. Do I have to get within 6-8 feet of every other passenger on the plane, or am I allowed to minimize the number of people I come into contact with?

 
The Commish said:
I thought that at first, but there is no social distancing going on at these games, so I'm not sure why they'd draw the line there.  Batter/Catcher aren't 6 feet from each other either.  Just a really weird/random place to draw the line....it seems like it's doing for the sake of doing rather than in the interest of safety.
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Sure but batter/catcher can't really be 6 feet apart without fundamentally changing the game a bit.  But just because there's not complete social distancing taking place doesn't mean they shouldn't still distance as much as possible.  Doesn't make sense to have an ump breathing on the catcher all game long when he could do his job sufficiently from elsewhere on the field.  

 
The Commish said:
You're aware of the probable issues with this site, right?  I'd say it's probably relatively close, but I wouldn't take it as gospel.  Unfortunately, there are rumblings out there that our politicians aren't being as honest with what goes into that site as they should be.
Click to expand...
Nope, not at all. 

That's the Florida Dept of Health and those are the numbers the government as a whole agrees to...It's not Gov Insert Name Here as the Lone Ranger putting twisted numbers into the system every night before his head hits the pillow...many hands are involved in those stats and it's the best we have to work with right now and I think it's what is driving the local governments to react and make public policies right now. It's not hard for County Commissioners to point to that website and see South Florida in intense Blue and do things like close the beaches on the 4th of July...they aren't talking about conspiracies or problems with the numbers being reported. 

I was not being snarky at you Commish, you do make a good point however in the larger scope of what local politicians are doing, I can't allow myself to think the numbers the FL Dept of Health puts up are way way off...I think the numbers on that site are fairly accurate. Now there are lots of other numbers I would like to see published on there but right now this is what we have to work with. 

You're right though, gospel it is not. 😉 

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Sure but batter/catcher can't really be 6 feet apart without fundamentally changing the game a bit.  But just because there's not complete social distancing taking place doesn't mean they shouldn't still distance as much as possible.  Doesn't make sense to have an ump breathing on the catcher all game long when he could do his job sufficiently from elsewhere on the field.  
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Batters box is 6 feet deep...our catchers are taught to stay approx 2 feet behind the back of the batter's box...there's plenty that COULD be done, but the risk is not there to make it worth while...I wouldn't be as concerned with the catcher/ump relationship as I would be the ump batter relationship...but they've chosen to do it this way so that's what we're doing.

 
The Commish said:
I thought that at first, but there is no social distancing going on at these games, so I'm not sure why they'd draw the line there.  Batter/Catcher aren't 6 feet from each other either.  Just a really weird/random place to draw the line....it seems like it's doing for the sake of doing rather than in the interest of safety.
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Our umps are wearing masks.  Our team is sitting outside the field spaced apart.

But after that it's game as usual

 
shader said:
Florida today reports +6,563.  15% positivity.  Median age 40. (The median age of Florida residents is 42, so trending slightly younger than normal, but still higher than last week)

Many reports that there are issues with testing.  

FWIW, this thread is interesting

https://www.reddit.com/r/FloridaCoronavirus/comments/hj9ptw/covid_testing_running_short/
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Hearing the same thing about testing in other states like Georgia and Arizona. We really are just going to bury our heads in the sand until it’s completely out of control. The part about false negatives the longer the specimen is stored is not good either...

 
CR69 said:
Hearing the same thing about testing in other states like Georgia and Arizona. We really are just going to bury our heads in the sand until it’s completely out of control. The part about false negatives the longer the specimen is stored is not good either...
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The girl that got fired in Florida said last week that they were pulling as many tests forward as possible, and this would lead to a lessening in overall cases this week.  

Whether she's right or wrong, the positivity is going up and Florida won't be able to hide cases much longer.

Hospitalization should become a big issue anyday now in Florida.  Every day that it doesn't rise significantly, is a good day.  I would love to find proof that this virus is "weakening".  I suspect that it's simply due to the fact that the median age of cases a week ago was much, much lower than the median age of Florida residents.  

The "Why would Florida hide numbers" camp has a good point.  They can't hide this forever, right?  IMO, Florida is going all-in on the narrative that this virus is weakening, that they can protect the older ones from getting it, and that they can do all this without shutting down the state. 

 
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Grace Under Pressure said:
While I get your point, people can definitely stay 6 feet apart or more at the beach or at a restaurant outdoors. Even in those other situations, you can still try to stay apart from as many people as possible. Do I have to get within 6-8 feet of every other passenger on the plane, or am I allowed to minimize the number of people I come into contact with?
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In an enclosed indoor space I have very little faith that social distancing matters.   At that point face coverings have to be used.  

Outdoors in an organized activity the thought you can maintain distance from those enjoying the activity in your group is silly.  

The risk mitigation strategy should take those into account, not some half ### let's get school desks 6 feet apart plan or not seat middle seats on planes. 

 
renesauz said:
to be fair...DNR's are criminally under utilized in the US. People have a false sense of life after a cardiopulmonayr arrest requiring CPR. If we can't fix the underlying problem...it's a waste of time. And if it lasts more then a couple of rounds of drugs/compressions, the odds of coming back at anything close to former capacity are dramatically reduced. 

PSA: If your parent is over 85, regardless of health, consider DNR. If you or your family member is riddled with cancer...DNR. If your loved one is unrepsonsive on a ventilator more then a few days and starts haing multiple organs fail...DNR at the least. 80 your old grandma with multiple strokes in her history...DONT PUT HER ON A VENT.

Sorry...rant over
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Preach!

 
CR69 said:
Hearing the same thing about testing in other states like Georgia and Arizona. We really are just going to bury our heads in the sand until it’s completely out of control. The part about false negatives the longer the specimen is stored is not good either...
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Arizona is both a shortage on tests and labs to run them. We’ll see what the numbers are today but daily test results have declined the last few days and a good chunk of the new positives are 7-10 days old. Most the drive-thru testing sites are booked 3 days in advance and urgent cares are hitting their limits in the early afternoon.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Nope, not at all. 

That's the Florida Dept of Health and those are the numbers the government as a whole agrees to...It's not Gov Insert Name Here as the Lone Ranger putting twisted numbers into the system every night before his head hits the pillow...many hands are involved in those stats and it's the best we have to work with right now and I think it's what is driving the local governments to react and make public policies right now. It's not hard for County Commissioners to point to that website and see South Florida in intense Blue and do things like close the beaches on the 4th of July...they aren't talking about conspiracies or problems with the numbers being reported. 

I was not being snarky at you Commish, you do make a good point however in the larger scope of what local politicians are doing, I can't allow myself to think the numbers the FL Dept of Health puts up are way way off...I think the numbers on that site are fairly accurate. Now there are lots of other numbers I would like to see published on there but right now this is what we have to work with. 

You're right though, gospel it is not. 😉 
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As I said:

I'd say it's probably relatively close, but I wouldn't take it as gospel
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I recommend everyone pay attention to them frequently or not at all....with the way things are going here it's probably most important to understand your local circumstance more than anything else.

 
shader said:
The "Why would Florida hide numbers" camp has a good point.  They can't hide this forever, right?  IMO, Florida is going all-in on the narrative that this virus is weakening, that they can protect the older ones from getting it, and that they can do all this without shutting down the state. 
Click to expand...
I haven't heard the argument that it's "weakening" yet.  The last part is absolutely true and I agree.  This can be done without shutting down the state (though we were never really shut down to begin with compared to many other places in the country).  The rub here is it requires masks to be worn consistently and DeSantis is punting to local municipalities who are then punting to businesses.  That's not going to get it unless the goal is perpetual "whack-a-mole" until a vaccine is obtained.

 
CR69 said:
Arizona with over 4,800 positive cases today and 88 deaths which is more than double their 7 day average. 😢
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Acute COVID beds up but COVID ICU beds is down. Overall ICU beds at 89%, a new high but remaining consistent. Good see test numbers over 17,000, but 28% positive is horrible.

 
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I'm trying to research Florida hospitalizations.  A few interesting articles

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243899367.html

Florida is going to start tracking how many people are hospitalized with covid (amazing they aren't doing that already)

When I looked for it, some counties are tracking hospitalizations. As an example, here is Miami:

https://www.miamidade.gov/information/library/2020-06-30-new-normal-dashboard.pdf

Miami paints a much different story than the state.  It's clear from their information that covid cases are rising in Miami day after day.  

 
The Commish said:
I haven't heard the argument that it's "weakening" yet.  The last part is absolutely true and I agree.  This can be done without shutting down the state (though we were never really shut down to begin with compared to many other places in the country).  The rub here is it requires masks to be worn consistently and DeSantis is punting to local municipalities who are then punting to businesses.  That's not going to get it unless the goal is perpetual "whack-a-mole" until a vaccine is obtained.
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This idea that mask usage can reverse an outbreak is extremely risky.  There's a very real chance that the USA is going to spend 3 weeks debating masks, then a mask edict comes down from the top after relentless pressure, then we find that wearing masks in an outbreak doesn't really stop the outbreak. If that happens, then by the time we get to the point where we shut things down (a strategy that we KNOW works), tens of thousands will be dead and hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Lockdowns worked everywhere in the world. The idea that we don't need to do them, but we can do masks instead, is a dangerous one that I haven't seen work, anywhere.

 
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Biff84 said:
Acute COVID beds up but COVID ICU beds is down. Overall ICU beds at 89%, a new high but remaining consistent. Good see test numbers over 17,000, but 28% positive is horrible.
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Yeah that’s a super high positive rate, hopefully it comes down quickly. 

 
SoBeDad said:
What's different about Spain, which has good public transportation and high density in many cities, but is at 0 deaths ? A conjecture that some people may not be susceptible to COVID-19. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/rfsquared/status/1277967169565802496
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Masks are mandatory in Spain and will be for foreseeable future. They were hit very hard early on so don't buy this less susceptible stuff. Also, a super tight lockdown that lasted a long time.  Not a joke lockdown we had in much of this country.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-masks/mandatory-mask-use-to-continue-in-spain-after-state-of-emergency-ends-idUSKBN23G1M4

 
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