*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

[TheWinz 2,925]

Connecticut's numbers are amazing.  I am waiting for today's stats, but as of yesterday:

Deaths - 4, bringing total to 4,320
In the single digits the last 4 days, and 10 of the last 15.  During this span, we have averaged less than 8 deaths per day.  To put these numbers into perspective, in May we averaged 52, and in April we averaged 72.

Hospitalizations - down to 99 statewide
The last time we were in double digits was back on 24 March.  From the max of 1972 on 22 April, we are sitting at 5% of that.  Look at our hospitalization decrease each of the last 2 weeks:
29 June = 99, 15 June = 203, 1 June = 454, 18 May = 920, 4 May = 1464

Testing & positives - 59 out of 6,354 yesterday = 0.9% positivity
CT is the only state with a 50% decrease in positives over the last 2 weeks.  We have been under 2% every day during this time.

Update - Today's numbers are in, and they are even amazinger.  Only 2 deaths, 1 less hospitalization, and the lowest positivity ever (152 out of 21,416 = 0.71%)

[Mr Anonymous 2,063]

Interesting Twitter thread from the Managing Partner and General Counsel for a company that owns 13 emergency care clinics in Texas...

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1277773122301804546/photo/1

Synopsis...

• testing a much broader spectrum of people than back in March/April
• most people being tested now as well as those testing positive have either mild or no symptoms (opposite of March/ April)
• the people coming in now to be tested are either at their employer's request or simply just curious
• these people are not ending up in the ICU (more positives does not translate to ICU or even hospitalization at the same rate as March/April)
• discharge planners are being pressured to list Covid-19 as primary diagnosis because the funding is better for that diagnosis

One final thing...

2 WEEKS!!!!

Edited June 30, 2020 by Mr Anonymous

[steeler6 184]

Zero deaths reported in Mass today. 

[Cowboysfan8 7,742]

5 hours ago, moleculo said:

Agreed, but I'm not holding my breath.  That would require him to publicly change his mind - something i don't think he's ever admitted to doing.

Agree

Not happening unfortunately 

[jamny 6,466]

Not sure if all NY numbers are in but only 3 deaths today.

12 yesterday.

 

 

eta: I see that's taken down now. Must have been a mistake.

Edited June 30, 2020 by jamny

[Soulfly3 4,400]

been avoiding this thread completely, and basically blinding/deafening myself to this whole thing as much as i can (which has been easy w only 10ppl working in my office, down from the usual 120-140, and jst staying home)

really hope things improve for you guys down there. really sad to hear it. 

[Super King 448]

35 minutes ago, jamny said:

Not sure if all NY numbers are in but only 3 deaths today.

12 yesterday.

 

 

eta: I see that's taken down now. Must have been a mistake.

I know here in WNY, we had 0 deaths over the weekend. And only 21 positives. 

[renesauz 3,021]

Lost the 30 year old last night 😥

[renesauz 3,021]

On 6/29/2020 at 2:20 PM, NotSmart said:

This isn't just a legit question, it's also an important one that needs to be defined.

I look forward to hopefully several replies to this question; I'll give my thoughts later tonight when I have more time.

This has been one of my biggest questions for a couple of weeks now. We can make reasonable arguments for any of several approaches, but it does seem we need to pick one and stick with it.

 

Personal opinion: keep everything open and moving again, except for tight indoor spaces (bars, sit in restaurants), mandatory masking with FINES/ENFORCEMENT to keep it relatively slow until there's a vaccine. a few extra steps to protect the elderly in nursing homes.

Edited June 30, 2020 by renesauz

[jobarules 542]

1 hour ago, jamny said:

Not sure if all NY numbers are in but only 3 deaths today.

12 yesterday.

 

 

eta: I see that's taken down now. Must have been a mistake.

I am shocked our numbers are so low. 2 weeks after phase 3 starts will be the biggest test. 

[jamny 6,466]

2 minutes ago, jobarules said:

I am shocked our numbers are so low. 2 weeks after phase 3 starts will be the biggest test. 

Like I said in the edit, they must have been in the middle of something and those numbers aren't right.

 

Still, 32 yesterday and 13 today is incredible.

[eoMMan 5,663]

I have a live, in-person job interview on Thursday.  My plan is to roll up in my mask of course, but I'm anxious to see how the company approaches it (will they be in masks, no handshaking, will we all be 6 feet apart, etc etc.).

[CR69 1,447]

For those that are only focused on the deaths, please read this-

https://twitter.com/kaydeegrace132/status/1277756961455366144?s=21

[Moe. 1,988]

6 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Statewide mask order in Kansas. Indoors and anywhere outdoors where social distancing can't be maintained. 

I run a rec commission. Basically like a YMCA. All but gonna shut down our fitness centers, rec centers and summer camps down.

Nice job America.   

You see Kobach's response? Dude might be the biggest clown in American politics, which is really saying something. Please vote this November Kansans. 

edit: sorry to hear about the impact on you personally. That's awful. Hang in there. 

Edited June 30, 2020 by Moe.

[shader 7,887]

Florida could be a test case of the first area in the world that literally does nothing in the face of covid-19.

https://www.axios.com/florida-coronavirus-desantis-3fe9b6c4-532b-4b2f-bf20-391e586abd2d.html
 

Of course I’m half joking, they will shut down eventually. But every week they delay compounds the situation.

Edited June 30, 2020 by shader

[Scoresman 6,603]

57 minutes ago, eoMMan said:

I have a live, in-person job interview on Thursday.  My plan is to roll up in my mask of course, but I'm anxious to see how the company approaches it (will they be in masks, no handshaking, will we all be 6 feet apart, etc etc.).

Why is it in person? Minor red flag if it were me. 

[renesauz 3,021]

On 6/29/2020 at 3:16 PM, shader said:

So let me get this straight.  Talking about case counts is fear mongering, but saying that most everyone will get this thing is not?

To me, your statement is 100X more "negative" than anything I've ever posted in this thread.

That should never be the goal.  But hey, if that's what you think is going to happen, I'm fine with that perspective.  You definitely could be right.  But I see far too many success stories all across the world to concede herd immunity.  

early on, there were estimates stating 50-70% of the population would contract it at some point without interventions. The STATED goals of the interventions early on were to flatten the curve, not to prevent that 50%+. Europe's success could have (and probably should have) made us shift those goals to something far less dramatic in terms of #s of infected while we wait on a vaccine. The problem is that far too few folks in National leadership roles have articulated any kind of cohesive strategy, and too many people are too resistant to any strategy at all without that strong national leadership.

[JaxBill 6,833]

49 minutes ago, shader said:

Florida could be a test case of the first area in the world that literally does nothing in the face of covid-19.

https://www.axios.com/florida-coronavirus-desantis-3fe9b6c4-532b-4b2f-bf20-391e586abd2d.html
 

Of course I’m half joking, they will shut down eventually. But every week they delay compounds the situation.

umm he did close the bars. Most municipalities have instituted mask policies.  In his press conferences he has recommended masks but leaving it to the counties to determine.

[renesauz 3,021]

On 6/29/2020 at 4:14 PM, TheWinz said:

No, I will not stop!  You ain't my mom, so don't talk to me like you are.  I am posting actual numbers from Worldometer.  If you have a problem with me posting actual numbers from the website that most everyone has been using, take it up with them. 

You're being childish, because he's absolutely correct...the data is misleading and your stubborn insistence on repeating that data is, while factually correct, incredibly (intentionally?) misleading. IN the earlier days, people who weren't sick enough for a hospital bed weren't even tested. It's foolish to compare Texas/Arizona death rates today to those of NYC in March

[Terminalxylem 2,965]

10 hours ago, TheWinz said:

One out of every 587 residents of New Jersey has died from COVID.  Extrapolate that to the US and you have 563,879 deaths

If I lived in NY I wouldn't be vacationing in NJ.  NY's death rate per positive case is only 7.55%, but NJ sits at 8.57%.  I'd steer clear of CT also (9.32%), but I hear Texas is nice this time of year (1.53%).

And by all means, avoid Hawai’i like the plague. Too risky to sit in a plane for so long...

[renesauz 3,021]

On 6/29/2020 at 5:06 PM, SoBeDad said:

Miami's 2000+ bed Jackson Health System reporting more more positive inpatients than during the "first wave", but they're less severe. The doctor doesn't address age of the patients, but says his contacts in other hospitals are also seeing less severe patients.  

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacksonHealth/status/1277700062072770561

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacksonHealth/status/1277692162323501058

Honestly think this is very misleading. During the first wave, tests were so limited we had to fill out request forms for state lab, or wait a full week for a send out lab. Mildly symptomatic with few comorbidities simply were NOT tested. you had to be highly vulnerable or heading to /on a ventilator. Now...every single person coming in with shortness of breath as a symptom is getting a rapid test done in house and resulting in less then 24 hours.

So...we are seeing a TON more "mild" cases, and "much better outcomes", but that dosen't mean the illness is lessened. We're seeing more young folks with fewer comorbidities as more bars/clubs/restaruants open....but those same folks weren't generally getting sick enough for testing a few months back, so it's even a bit misleading to say that the disease is hitting them more often.

In the end, testing capability has dramatically impacted the value of the data, and it's going to take some real smart folks real good with numbers and with more real studies (requiring TIME) to figure out the real numbers. I suspect we're going to find the real mortality is in the 1% range across all age groups, and that our early reports of case were WAY under-stated, that MILLIONS here have already had this bug and have not been counted...that could actually be some very good/hopeful news. I don't know I'm correct with 100% certainty, but I can hope so.

Meanwhile...WEAR YOUR FRIGGING MASK!

 

 

ETA: Oh...and while we're at it, we havent gotten much better at treating this thing. We;re still struggling, trust me as I have first hand on hands experience here

 

 

Edited July 1, 2020 by renesauz

[DallasDMac 2,835]

Bexar County (San Antonio) crushed the highest number of positive cases in a day by an additional 60% (was 795, 1268 today). The Governor's response? Cancelled his 4:00 presser today. Way to step up Abbott! We had our worst day by far and the Governor's response was to cower and hide.

[DallasDMac 2,835]

8 hours ago, Keerock said:

Son trying to get a test.  No clinics with open appointments for the next 2 days.  Government testing facility (Nissan Stadium) has a literal 2 mile line.

Unpossible. Posters in the "Let's have football" thread in the Pool have stated quite clearly that testing availability isn't an issue.

[renesauz 3,021]

On 6/29/2020 at 8:34 PM, Terminalxylem said:

No, it's not, as you'll likely never know the full picture wrt asymptomatic infection. It's the difference between case fatality and infection fatality rates, with the former being cited far more frequently when infectious disease mortality is discussed - not just COVID-19.

If you get admitted to the ICU and placed on a ventilator, and your family asks "what are his chances?", how do you think the doctor should respond?

50-50 at best

[renesauz 3,021]

23 hours ago, tri-man 47 said:

That's what I'm thinking as well ...they know nursing homes are "hot spots," and can take precautions.

Ex-wife is an lpn in a florida home...they're definately taking more/better precautions then NY/NJ were early. The increased testing capability helps a ton

[renesauz 3,021]

23 hours ago, pollardsvision said:

NY appears to be putting the brakes on opening up.

And they are in very different situations. In all this time, CA has never gotten below 4% positivity. Ever.  4 is pretty solid. Same range many of the "doing pretty well" states are now that are opening up. Sort of like FL was on Memorial Day.

But NY has been below 2% for nearly an entire month now, and is hovering around 1% now. It's a pretty big difference. They seem to have it "under control" in a way that's not comparable to other states.

Now, what you mention.....what happens to NY when the do open up? That is the trillion dollar question. I don't know what happens. But I'll say that if NY keeps the clamps down another week or so, keeps crushing it, then opens up and all hell breaks loose, that will be so demoralizing. 

 

not a fan of positivity rate as any kind of "how are we doing" metric. Testing availability and criteria have too far an impact on that rate.

[renesauz 3,021]

11 hours ago, shader said:

I'd imagine you aren't alone in your anger.  No one is going to be happy about another round of lockdowns.  Maybe this time people will listen and wear masks when they are over, so we can avoid this again.

when the POTUS is scoffing at masks, religious leaders are demanding exemptions to gather in large groups, and significant numbers of nut-jobs are jumping up and down about "violations of civil rights", we can't get there.

This is a MASSIVE failure of leadership

[renesauz 3,021]

10 hours ago, TheWinz said:

My statement above was...

NY's death rate per positive case is only 7.55%

Where in this statement do I ever say Case Fatality Rate?  What part of my statement is false?  The fact is NY has reported 31,496 deaths out of 417,328 positives, and the math works out to 7.55%.

how obtuse are you? Positve rate is meaningless as it relies too heavily on test availability and criteria.

[renesauz 3,021]

8 hours ago, Biff84 said:

No bueno. My understanding is that staffing is a much bigger issue than beds. When they start triaging care that’s when the deaths will increase significantly. More push for people to sign DNR/DNIs, more people being sent home with oxygen rather than getting hospital care and more push for hospice care. It’s getting depressing really quick.

to be fair...DNR's are criminally under utilized in the US. People have a false sense of life after a cardiopulmonayr arrest requiring CPR. If we can't fix the underlying problem...it's a waste of time. And if it lasts more then a couple of rounds of drugs/compressions, the odds of coming back at anything close to former capacity are dramatically reduced. 

 

PSA: If your parent is over 85, regardless of health, consider DNR. If you or your family member is riddled with cancer...DNR. If your loved one is unrepsonsive on a ventilator more then a few days and starts haing multiple organs fail...DNR at the least. 80 your old grandma with multiple strokes in her history...DONT PUT HER ON A VENT.

 

Sorry...rant over

[Jayrod 4,416]

9 minutes ago, renesauz said:

to be fair...DNR's are criminally under utilized in the US. People have a false sense of life after a cardiopulmonayr arrest requiring CPR. If we can't fix the underlying problem...it's a waste of time. And if it lasts more then a couple of rounds of drugs/compressions, the odds of coming back at anything close to former capacity are dramatically reduced. 

 

PSA: If your parent is over 85, regardless of health, consider DNR. If you or your family member is riddled with cancer...DNR. If your loved one is unrepsonsive on a ventilator more then a few days and starts haing multiple organs fail...DNR at the least. 80 your old grandma with multiple strokes in her history...DONT PUT HER ON A VENT.

 

Sorry...rant over

Newsflash, most people don't want to die or lose their loved ones.  It is devastating to those that remain and downright terrifying to some people, even old and feeble people. 

[renesauz 3,021]

4 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

Newsflash, most people don't want to die or lose their loved ones.  It is devastating to those that remain and downright terrifying to some people, even old and feeble people. 

I realize this, which is why I think we have it all screwed up. It's not really fair to ask someone with limited medical experience or expertise to make a realistic decision in many of these cases. That's why they DON'T ASK THEM in most other countries..they do what makes medical sense. 

That's also why people need to talk about this stuff more often BEFORE IT HAPPENS, to learn what the limitations are.

But more importantly, everyone needs to realize that health care providers suggesting comfort measures or DNR orders aren't doing it because they don't want to save your loved one...it's because we know we can't save your loved one and we start feeling like what we're really doing is prolonging the misery and causing un-necessary pain and trauma

[DallasDMac 2,835]

11 minutes ago, renesauz said:

That's also why people need to talk about this stuff more often BEFORE IT HAPPENS, to learn what the limitations are.

Wife and I signed our DNRs yesterday, along with  lot of other stuff.

[Biff84 2,850]

1 hour ago, renesauz said:

to be fair...DNR's are criminally under utilized in the US. People have a false sense of life after a cardiopulmonayr arrest requiring CPR. If we can't fix the underlying problem...it's a waste of time. And if it lasts more then a couple of rounds of drugs/compressions, the odds of coming back at anything close to former capacity are dramatically reduced. 

 

PSA: If your parent is over 85, regardless of health, consider DNR. If you or your family member is riddled with cancer...DNR. If your loved one is unrepsonsive on a ventilator more then a few days and starts haing multiple organs fail...DNR at the least. 80 your old grandma with multiple strokes in her history...DONT PUT HER ON A VENT.

 

Sorry...rant over

Don’t disagree at all, just stating it as a reason we will see deaths rise.

[beer 30 3,404]

US buys up world stock of key Covid-19 drug remdesivir
 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug

The US has bought up virtually all the stocks for the next three months of one of the two drugs proven to work against Covid-19, leaving none for the UK, Europe or most of the rest of the world.

Experts and campaigners are alarmed both by the US unilateral action on remdesivir and the wider implications, for instance in the event of a vaccine becoming available. The Trump administration has already shown that it is prepared to outbid and outmanoeuvre all other countries to secure the medical supplies it needs for the US.

“They’ve got access to most of the drug supply [of remdesivir], so there’s nothing for Europe,” said Dr Andrew Hill, senior visiting research fellow at Liverpool University.

Remdesivir, the first drug approved by licensing authorities in the US to treat Covid-19, is made by Gilead and has been shown to help people recover faster from the disease. The first 140,000 doses, supplied to drug trials around the world, have been used up. The Trump administration has now bought more than 500,000 doses, which is all of Gilead’s production for July and 90% of August and September.

“President Trump has struck an amazing deal to ensure Americans have access to the first authorised therapeutic for Covid-19,” said the US health and human services secretary, Alex Azar. “To the extent possible, we want to ensure that any American patient who needs remdesivir can get it. The Trump administration is doing everything in our power to learn more about life-saving therapeutics for Covid-19 and secure access to these options for the American people.”

[JaxBill 6,833]

Wake Forest study shows antibody present in 12 to 14% of participants in NC.

[JaxBill 6,833]

3 minutes ago, JaxBill said:

Wake Forest study shows antibody present in 12 to 14% of participants in NC.

Just for reference, Wake County NC has 5,178 confirmed cases and a population of 1.112 million.

[JaxBill 6,833]

If you're coming in from the East, there's a good chance you're coming in from Jax Beach.

 

@jinde: Dozens of cars already in line for #COVID testing at LOTJ 2.5 hours before site opens. Notably, no cars in line yet coming in from the west (Maxwell House). @FCN2go #GMJ https://twitter.com/jinde/status/1278276309576306689/video/1

[SoBeDad 2,289]

In Florida hospitals, lessons learned from more than 3,300 deaths

Proning instead of intubation, younger patients, better medications, shorter length of stay, seeking treatment earlier.

 

 

 

[The Commish 13,616]

On 6/29/2020 at 2:01 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

I've lost track of what our goal is with all this.

We started with "flattening the curve" with the goal of helping our healthcare industry ramp up to deal with it. Are we still doing that? How prepared are they and/or how much more time is necessary to buy?

Has our goal shifted to preventing it from spreading it at all? Or are we now in "delay until we have a vaccine" mode? 

What are we actually trying to do?

Who is "our" and "we" here?  To my knowledge, it's every many for himself.  We have no collective goal as a nation for certain.  It doesn't seem we ever have.  States sort of have a goal and I think it's something along the lines of "don't screw this thing up so you're on the national news".  Seems that local municipalities are the one focused on preventing spread (maybe?  sometimes?)  I have a personal goal of keeping my kids/wife as safe as possible and making this screwed up time as painless as possible for them.

[Cold Dead Hands 1,757]

11 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Who is "our" and "we" here?  To my knowledge, it's every many for himself.  We have no collective goal as a nation for certain.  It doesn't seem we ever have.  States sort of have a goal and I think it's something along the lines of "don't screw this thing up so you're on the national news".  Seems that local municipalities are the one focused on preventing spread (maybe?  sometimes?)  I have a personal goal of keeping my kids/wife as safe as possible and making this screwed up time as painless as possible for them.

My local government building opened to the public recently. Doesn’t make a ton of sense seeing as how everything was available digitally. Found out from an executive level individual that has been in the meetings that the decision was based on the feedback (#####ing) from two prominent business people. They wanted it open because it allowed them more billable time with more employees and allowed them some intimidation factor when dealing with certain permitting offices in person. 
 

So, we are allowing unfettered access to local offices because two wealthy guys wanted to be able to make a few extra bucks and speed up their permits by perhaps a day.

[need2know 6,320]

7 hours ago, Dezbelief said:

Not only is the POtuS screwing the US with more cases and deaths than necessary, he's screwing the world too from having all available treatment methods at their finger tips. How much hate is this going to bring on the US from our allies and enemies alike?

if they didnt buy them up people would slam him for not buying more.

[The Commish 13,616]

23 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Great idea, want to share the Florida Covid-19 site from the Florida Dept of Health so this is OFFICIAL 

Florida

I am going to break down my Zip Code which has reported ZERO cases to this point...Tequesta, Jupiter Island, Hobe Sound, nothing to this point. 

But we've closed the BEACHES for 4th of July!

You're aware of the probable issues with this site, right?  I'd say it's probably relatively close, but I wouldn't take it as gospel.  Unfortunately, there are rumblings out there that our politicians aren't being as honest with what goes into that site as they should be.

[Terminalxylem 2,965]

2 hours ago, JaxBill said:

Wake Forest study shows antibody present in 12 to 14% of participants in NC.

Really need to know the test characteristics of the antibody test they’re using to interpret that data.

[IvanKaramazov 21,913]

9 minutes ago, The Commish said:

You're aware of the probable issues with this site, right?  I'd say it's probably relatively close, but I wouldn't take it as gospel.  Unfortunately, there are rumblings out there that our politicians aren't being as honest with what goes into that site as they should be.

Is there any actual evidence that Florida's numbers are out of whack besides the claims of one disgruntled ex-employee?  People keep alluding to this over and over, but if Florida is manipulating their data to make reopening look smart, they're doing a really ####ty job.

If this were the PSF thread, I would say whatever, let's just let the conspiracy theories roll along.  But this thread should require some evidence to post stuff like this.

[The Commish 13,616]

23 hours ago, beer 30 said:

23 hours ago, shader said:

Pro tip, don't go to a state where "most are moving on"

What if you live there? 

seriously....

[shader 7,887]

 

30 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Really need to know the test characteristics of the antibody test they’re using to interpret that data.

The major spike on the right end of the curve seems quite odd.  
 

They need for release their methodology and which antibody test they are using, otherwise their study is meaningless.

 

[The Commish 13,616]

34 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Is there any actual evidence that Florida's numbers are out of whack besides the claims of one disgruntled ex-employee?  People keep alluding to this over and over, but if Florida is manipulating their data to make reopening look smart, they're doing a really ####ty job.

If this were the PSF thread, I would say whatever, let's just let the conspiracy theories roll along.  But this thread should require some evidence to post stuff like this.

At this point it's speculation based on the actions/responses received by local news outlets (at least in my area).  That's why I said "rumblings".  I go to the site daily and there are chunks missing on the regular from one day to the next.  And those chunks are consistently from Orange County and southern Florida.  This just started occurring about three weeks ago....was a smooth running site until then.  "Stuff like this" is a simple word of caution that things aren't consistent from one day to the next on the site.  If that's an issue for this thread, I won't put it out there anymore.  Just figured people would want to know what they're looking at  

[FBG Moderator 755]

8 hours ago, Dezbelief said:

Not only is the POtuS screwing the US with more cases and deaths than necessary, he's screwing the world too from having all available treatment methods at their finger tips. How much hate is this going to bring on the US from our allies and enemies alike?

There's an entire forum for politics. Tired of asking people to take this there. 

[jobarules 542]

travel ball and little league is starting up locally next week (part of phase 3). There has been zero masks or social distancing of the kids at any of the practices. My son has a tournament Monday already. Two parents are allowed but they must social distance and wear a mask. Coaches and umps have to wear masks. Kids only have to wear masks if they want to in the dugout. No handshakes, ump behind pitcher not catcher, change ball every inning, kids line up along fence and not all in dugout. Should be interesting. 

[IvanKaramazov 21,913]

14 minutes ago, jobarules said:

travel ball and little league is starting up locally next week (part of phase 3). There has been zero masks or social distancing of the kids at any of the practices. My son has a tournament Monday already. Two parents are allowed but they must social distance and wear a mask. Coaches and umps have to wear masks. Kids only have to wear masks if they want to in the dugout. No handshakes, ump behind pitcher not catcher, change ball every inning, kids line up along fence and not all in dugout. Should be interesting. 

Honestly, this sounds pretty reasonable.