I’d also look at how long they stayed locked down and what the case load was like when they started to open up. NY and the surrounding states likely have a good chance of coming out looking good if they keep precautions in place and get good compliance on the 14 day quarantine of travelers. The biggest problem with the hotspots now is that opened without precautions before the viral load was low enough.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Masks are mandatory in many countries, but not the USA or UK.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2020/06/29/uk-face-masks-coronavirus-pandemic-covid-19-britain/amp/
Redwes25
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
First of all, they aren't at 0 deaths. They reported 9 deaths yesterday and 3 the day before.
Second, they had a very strict lockdown, one that puts the USA to shame.
Third, they had a mass distribution of masks and made the wearing of masks mandantory once the lockdown was over.
Strict lockdown + mandated mask usage is a combination that has worked all over the world so far.
Spain is in good shape right now, as is most of Europe, for the reasons above. It's not rocket science and you don't need to look for weird theories on what may be going on. The formula for knocking this virus out (at least for the time being) is right there in plain sight.
Last edited by a moderator:
Redwes25
Footballguy
Florida is playing with the numbers - real deaths were 145. The 45 is only Florida residents.
https://www.fox13news.com/news/over-6500-new-florida-coronavirus-cases-reported-wednesday-45-new-deaths?fbclid=IwAR1XbeUO8YhHu_-PmZ_H7QsuYswByixO494KCZIXFMaC9Ac2bZ66b736fOQ
CR69
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Hi Shades,
What would be the fallout be if the positivity continues to rise? 15%...18%...25% is there a cap?
(I just filtered off 3-4 paragraphs and will send them via PM to you. If you want after you read it, you can either reply in here or post up what I wrote.)
Yeah they’ve been playing this game for awhile. Considering the snowbird population there, it can affect the numbers greatly. Most are likely gone now but some who live in previous hotspots may have stayed.
For what it's worth, we've had 3 weeks of summer camp now with no masks and no social distancing. The only instance was one of the counselors (college age) went out to a bar when it opened up and got COVID, so they shut her class down for two weeks. None of the kids got it.
We've also been playing baseball for about a month with similar rules that you stated and we haven't had any issues.
bostonfred
Footballguy
This is likely happening across the board
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/01/official-us-coronavirus-death-toll-is-a-substantial-undercount-of-actual-tally-new-yale-study-finds.html
jplvr
Footballguy
Someone gets Covid in their own state, comes to Florida, and that's on Florida? Maybe. They track the out of state people separately, so maybe they're playing with the numbers, but it's not like they're hiding data either.
I think I mentioned previously Florida never did a good job with the banning people from coming from other states. I saw several chicks on dating apps from New York when I got back on them, and I actually had a date with one. She said they just took their temp at the airport, told them to quarantine for 14 days, and no one ever checked on them. They didn't obey, of course.
We'll see how things go this week, but if the system isn't overwhelmed by the 4th, something else is going on... something other than the disasters we saw in New York or Italy.
There’s problems with Arizona’s numbers too but hopefully not in the same way as Florida.
https://phdata.maricopa.gov/Dashboard/e10a16d8-921f-4aac-b921-26d95e638a45?e=false&vo=viewonly
Maricopa country (Phoenix metro) is driving much of the rise. They just added these graphs to their reporting but list an 8 day delay for general testing and 21(!) day delay for hospitalizations. They also break down deaths into LTCF which are steadily decreasing in % of total deaths.
https://phdata.maricopa.gov/Dashboard/e10a16d8-921f-4aac-b921-26d95e638a45?e=false&vo=viewonly
Maricopa country (Phoenix metro) is driving much of the rise. They just added these graphs to their reporting but list an 8 day delay for general testing and 21(!) day delay for hospitalizations. They also break down deaths into LTCF which are steadily decreasing in % of total deaths.
That one guy
Footballguy
Not only is State Gov punting on masks, each county that does go for it on their own is gleefully met with a lawsuit and press conference by local State Rep and ambulance chaser law firm
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I have some pretty bad news to report to everyone. I was given new Tennis Rules issued at my club and was ready to cancel my membership as of this morning UNTIL...
-Buddy of mine calls and says "I don't know if you knew this but my stepdaughter is a nurse for Palm Beach and she just told me that the CV-19 Unit they had set up weeks ago when this first was becoming an issue, that ward of the hospital is FULL."
I have no reason to lie to you and if I were going to put something up questionable, believe me this wouldn't be it.
Are they all going to die? Of course not but just knowing the CV-19 area specifically set up so they don't infect other patients in the hospital, that area is now FULL. And they are full at one other hospital as well but I don't know the name of that particular one.
I haven't seen a local news story on it yet...
-Buddy of mine calls and says "I don't know if you knew this but my stepdaughter is a nurse for Palm Beach and she just told me that the CV-19 Unit they had set up weeks ago when this first was becoming an issue, that ward of the hospital is FULL."
I have no reason to lie to you and if I were going to put something up questionable, believe me this wouldn't be it.
Are they all going to die? Of course not but just knowing the CV-19 area specifically set up so they don't infect other patients in the hospital, that area is now FULL. And they are full at one other hospital as well but I don't know the name of that particular one.
I haven't seen a local news story on it yet...
Last edited by a moderator:
jplvr
Footballguy
We count far more Covid related patients and deaths as Covid patients than lots of countries, so I don't understand how people think we're under counting by enough to be a worry. I would think it evens out if they missed someone because hospitals have been retroactively assigning Covid deaths as well, even without positive tests. I kind of lean to the side of "died of Covid; counts as Covid" side of the argument, and I know you aren't comparing other countries in this post, but we are far more liberal with Covid designations. Delaware had a Department of Health official say, "if you come into the hospital for a sprained ankle and you have Covid, you will be counted as a hospitalization." That just seems insane to me if an asymptomatic person just stopped by for an X-ray and went home to quarantine. Sure, if you know grandma had 8 months to live, but she died last week from Covid, that's a Covid death.
Just look up the thread. People are saying Spain is doing well, but they aren't counting in a similar manner. They are only counting patients with positive tests. Some countries won't count a Covid death if you have an underlying condition like diabetes or heart disease.
So maybe they miss a Covid patient or two here in the U.S., but I just disagree we are under counting overall.
Redwes25
Footballguy
I’d love to see a link to a country doing this. That would eliminate a significant number of deaths and make the death numbers completely inaccurate.
The Commish
Footballguy
No one is saying it will reverse an outbreak...at least I'm not. I'm saying it goes a long way in preventing them and in the cases where the outbreak is on, it goes a long way in preventing the spread. SK worked just fine. They were on top of it from the beginning and didn't shut down. It can be done...it requires us to do it.
jplvr
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
I am not comparing with other countries.
We are likely under counting the number of deaths due to Covid because we have way more overall deaths at this time than in similar years.
We can compare year over year data which is usually pretty similar and see that there is a huge increase this year and that the majority of that increase is likely due to Covid. Some of that may be attributable to preventable deaths where the patient refused to go to a hospital in time because of Covid, and those deaths should be treated differently. The article I linked explains how they did that. The analysis still clearly points to under reporting,
Florida in particular has a huge spike in the number of deaths from pneumonia this spring vs. other springs in that state.
It is possible that there's been an unrelated outbreak of non Covid pneumonia that just isn't getting noticed by any reputable doctor or medical journal, but it's much more likely that those are simply under counted.
Whether the correct numbers look good or bad, or how they related to other countries, should be irrelevant in a public health crisis. We're well over 100k dead which is about .03 percent of the entire US population or roughly one out of 3000 people. We shouldn't be working with inaccurate information. People who directly benefit from low or high numbers shouldn't be involved in the reporting of those numbers, but they are. The purpose of that study is to estimate what the real numbers look like and provide transparency around where they came from. That should be the expectation in all of these cases but it clearly is not.
Last edited by a moderator:
leftcoastguy7
Footballguy
The Oregonian reports that:
Coronavirus infections rising fastest among kids younger than 10, dimming prospects for Oregon's school reopening plans.
Coronavirus infections rising fastest among kids younger than 10, dimming prospects for Oregon's school reopening plans.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
jplvr
Footballguy
I agree we have extremely flawed data, and we're probably not going to have legitimate data until someone does a decent review of the whole thing years from now. I don't know what else to compare to when we're talking about our country under counting cases. If we're under counting, the rest of the world is doing it worse, or many are.
jplvr
Footballguy
I just backed it up with one example, so hop on your Google machine and do it yourself.
Russia is your example? Maybe you should check and see if other bastions of truthful reporting like China, North Korea and Iran are doing the same thing.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Assuming that study is accurate -- and I have little doubt that it is because that methodology makes perfect sense to me -- it's incredibly disappointing that we can't even track basic epidemiological data competently.
I've posted before that "covid deaths" seem like the most straightforward data to come by because they shouldn't be dependent on on rates of testing, but it sounds like I was completely wrong about that. The article mentions at the very end that spotty testing might be one of the primary drivers of not having good data on deaths.
Last edited by a moderator:
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Is there a European country that doesn't have deaths decreasing at this point? Even Sweden has a pronounced, steady decline. It can't be all about "lockdowns". What is the common denominator for all the places the virus shows up, destroys for a few months, and then deaths decline?
Maybe the Oxford Epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta had the correct theory? “The epidemic has in many places displayed a pattern which suggests it’s been brought down by natural processes, which does not just include acquired immunity, but perhaps cross-protection from having other related viruses, and possibly some innate level of resistance to start with"
Last edited by a moderator:
bostonfred
Footballguy
It doesn't matter what the rest of the world is doing.
Number of deaths in 2020 is highee than the number of deaths in other years.
That's expected.
It's more than the number of deaths in other years PLUS the number of reported Covid-19 deaths, and by a large amount.
That's not expected.
Either there is another cause or there's under reporting of covid deaths.
Those other possible causes were also studied.
What other explanation is there? The US is under reporting covid deaths. Period. Whether that has anything to do with politics or other countries, that's not a topic for this thread.
jplvr
Footballguy
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-florida-coronavirus-deaths-cases-wednesday-july-1-20200701-vljb2vc6l5bmjhiyhrr7a2jlte-story.html
I've been looking for something official and kept coming up empty, but according to that link, this looks correct.
shader
Footballguy
Do a search in google for what happened to hospitals in Spain, Italy and NYC. That will happen in Florida if they don't do something. It's inevitable, sad to say.
Florida has some advantages over those areas.
First of all, the virus is not spreading as fast now as it was then.
Second, Treatment should be better now, than it was then.
But the disadvantage is that the Florida government is on record yesterday saying that lockdowns won't be happening.
Take a look at Italy as an example of what can happen.
Italy instituted a lockdown on March 9th. That lockdown was instituted long BEFORE things got bad.
ON the date it was instituted, Italy reported 97 deaths. They hit their PEAK PERIOD of deaths 3 weeks later. So their peak came 3 weeks after their lockdowns.
So where is Florida on that Italy comparison scale? I'd argue they are approaching the point that Italy was at on March 9th. Every day that Florida waits to lockdown is going to compound the misery that will come in 3-4 weeks.
Doug B
Footballguy
Redwes25
Footballguy
Actually, it is really hard to tell this. Back in March there weren't testing anywhere for this. Now we at least have decent testing (could be much better) so we know about a lot more cases now then we did then. Are the number of reported cases now going to be enough to swamp the hospitals? I fear that it will but I don't know.
worrierking
Footballguy
Pfizer vaccine shows promise. This isn't a stock price pump and dump, as they are showing the data. I am rooting for this one since I do own a small amount of stock.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/virus-shot-from-pfizer-biontech-shows-promise-in-early-test/ar-BB16cRHP?ocid=FinanceShimLayer
Derek Lowe thinks it's positive news, so that's even better:
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/01/pfizer-and-biontechs-first-vaccine-candidate
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/virus-shot-from-pfizer-biontech-shows-promise-in-early-test/ar-BB16cRHP?ocid=FinanceShimLayer
Derek Lowe thinks it's positive news, so that's even better:
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/01/pfizer-and-biontechs-first-vaccine-candidate
CR69
Footballguy
Yeah our daughter is not going to school this year
https://www.wweek.com/news/state/2020/06/30/oregon-child-care-facility-reports-covid-19-outbreak-among-first-in-nation/
https://www.wweek.com/news/state/2020/06/30/oregon-child-care-facility-reports-covid-19-outbreak-among-first-in-nation/
shader
Footballguy
I have no idea when Florida will cross the rubicon of where Italy/Spain/NYC were when they instituted lockdowns. It would be an interesting research project. I used deaths because we can't use cases. Italy's early testing was poor, so we really can't compare the two using that stat.
My main point was that the lockdown came, and then the peak came 3 weeks later. So every day Florida and other states wait to do something, they are pushing that 3-week peak out another day, and making that peak worse.
shader
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
This is interesting. I can’t keep up with this whole thread - can you post the link to the data you reference here?
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Ugh. I just sent my son back to daycare today. I was feeling some optimism that there really had not been any outbreaks at child care centers.
CR69
Footballguy
It’s really weird that there haven’t been more and that this one is so large. Hoping it doesn’t become more widespread though.
Man In The Box
Footballguy
My uncle tested positive. Saw him on Father’s Day. I’m online to get drive-thru tested right now.
culdeus
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Daycare centers here (New Orleans metro) have remained open the entire time, even when K-12 schools were closed down. If there have been any outbreaks related to our local daycare centers, they haven't made local news.
MTskibum
Footballguy
There was a study out of Italy that detailed kids living in a house with a family full of positive cases never tested positive and a separate study out of Iceland that showed that young kids especially caught the virus at a significantly lower rate.
Last edited by a moderator:
