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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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31 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Someone gets Covid in their own state, comes to Florida, and that's on Florida? Maybe. They track the out of state people separately, so maybe they're playing with the numbers, but it's not like they're hiding data either.

I think I mentioned previously Florida never did a good job with the banning people from coming from other states. I saw several chicks on dating apps from New York when I got back on them, and I actually had a date with one. She said they just took their temp at the airport, told them to quarantine for 14 days, and no one ever checked on them. They didn't obey, of course.

We'll see how things go this week, but if the system isn't overwhelmed by the 4th, something else is going on... something other than the disasters we saw in New York or Italy.

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My dad has been sick for a few weeks.  My mom called me today to say he was about to die.  I said some final words to him and he could hear me but was unable to respond.  He passed a short time later.

Not to derail anything, but we had our baby last night! She's doing amazingly well. Due to the hospital's pandemic policies, I had to leave her right after my wife was released from recovery. I can't

On a positive note, my wife gave birth to our first child this morning!! We were expecting our daughter to be born in the first week of April, which does not align very well if this hospital sees a ma

There’s problems with Arizona’s numbers too but hopefully not in the same way as Florida.

https://phdata.maricopa.gov/Dashboard/e10a16d8-921f-4aac-b921-26d95e638a45?e=false&vo=viewonly
 

Maricopa country (Phoenix metro) is driving much of the rise. They just added these graphs to their reporting but list an 8 day delay for general testing and 21(!) day delay for hospitalizations. They also break down deaths into LTCF which are steadily decreasing in % of total deaths.

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2 hours ago, The Commish said:

I haven't heard the argument that it's "weakening" yet.  The last part is absolutely true and I agree.  This can be done without shutting down the state (though we were never really shut down to begin with compared to many other places in the country).  The rub here is it requires masks to be worn consistently and DeSantis is punting to local municipalities who are then punting to businesses.  That's not going to get it unless the goal is perpetual "whack-a-mole" until a vaccine is obtained.

Not only is State Gov punting on masks, each county that does go for it on their own is gleefully met with a lawsuit and press conference by local State Rep and ambulance chaser law firm 

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I have some pretty bad news to report to everyone. I was given new Tennis Rules issued at my club and was ready to cancel my membership as of this morning UNTIL...

-Buddy of mine calls and says "I don't know if you knew this but my stepdaughter is a nurse for Palm Beach and she just told me that the CV-19 Unit they had set up weeks ago when this first was becoming an issue, that ward of the hospital is FULL." 🤷‍♂️

I have no reason to lie to you and if I were going to put something up questionable, believe me this wouldn't be it. 

Are they all going to die? Of course not but just knowing the CV-19 area specifically set up so they don't infect other patients in the hospital, that area is now FULL. And they are full at one other hospital as well but I don't know the name of that particular one. 

I haven't seen a local news story on it yet...

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6 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

We count far more Covid related patients and deaths as Covid patients than lots of countries, so I don't understand how people think we're under counting by enough to be a worry. I would think it evens out if they missed someone because hospitals have been retroactively assigning Covid deaths as well, even without positive tests. I kind of lean to the side of "died of Covid; counts as Covid" side of the argument, and I know you aren't comparing other countries in this post, but we are far more liberal with Covid designations. Delaware had a Department of Health official say, "if you come into the hospital for a sprained ankle and you have Covid, you will be counted as a hospitalization." That just seems insane to me if an asymptomatic person just stopped by for an X-ray and went home to quarantine. Sure, if you know grandma had 8 months to live, but she died last week from Covid, that's a Covid death. 

Just look up the thread. People are saying Spain is doing well, but they aren't counting in a similar manner. They are only counting patients with positive tests. Some countries won't count a Covid death if you have an underlying condition like diabetes or heart disease. 

So maybe they miss a Covid patient or two here in the U.S., but I just disagree we are under counting overall.

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55 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

I believe the 100 non-resident deaths are total, not just today.

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3 minutes ago, jplvr said:

We count far more Covid related patients and deaths as Covid patients than lots of countries, so I don't understand how people think we're under counting by enough to be a worry. I would think it evens out if they missed someone because hospitals have been retroactively assigning Covid deaths as well, even without positive tests. I kind of lean to the side of "died of Covid; counts as Covid" side of the argument, and I know you aren't comparing other countries in this post, but we are far more liberal with Covid designations. Delaware had a Department of Health official say, "if you come into the hospital for a sprained ankle and you have Covid, you will be counted as a hospitalization." That just seems insane to me if an asymptomatic person just stopped by for an X-ray and went home to quarantine. Sure, if you know grandma had 8 months to live, but she died last week from Covid, that's a Covid death. 

Just look up the thread. People are saying Spain is doing well, but they aren't counting in a similar manner. They are only counting patients with positive tests. Some countries won't count a Covid death if you have an underlying condition like diabetes or heart disease. 

So maybe they miss a Covid patient or two here in the U.S., but I just disagree we are under counting overall.

I’d love to see a link to a country doing this. That would eliminate a significant number of deaths and make the death numbers completely inaccurate.

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1 hour ago, shader said:

 

This idea that mask usage can reverse an outbreak is extremely risky.  There's a very real chance that the USA is going to spend 3 weeks debating masks, then a mask edict comes down from the top after relentless pressure, then we find that wearing masks in an outbreak doesn't really stop the outbreak. If that happens, then by the time we get to the point where we shut things down (a strategy that we KNOW works), tens of thousands will be dead and hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Lockdowns worked everywhere in the world. The idea that we don't need to do them, but we can do masks instead, is a dangerous one that I haven't seen work, anywhere.

No one is saying it will reverse an outbreak...at least I'm not.  I'm saying it goes a long way in preventing them and in the cases where the outbreak is on, it goes a long way in preventing the spread.  SK worked just fine.  They were on top of it from the beginning and didn't shut down.  It can be done...it requires us to do it.

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Just now, Biff84 said:

I’d love to see a link to a country doing this. That would eliminate a significant number of deaths and make the death numbers completely inaccurate.

Russia for one. I don't do the link thing.

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6 minutes ago, jplvr said:

We count far more Covid related patients and deaths as Covid patients than lots of countries, so I don't understand how people think we're under counting by enough to be a worry. I would think it evens out if they missed someone because hospitals have been retroactively assigning Covid deaths as well, even without positive tests. I kind of lean to the side of "died of Covid; counts as Covid" side of the argument, and I know you aren't comparing other countries in this post, but we are far more liberal with Covid designations. Delaware had a Department of Health official say, "if you come into the hospital for a sprained ankle and you have Covid, you will be counted as a hospitalization." That just seems insane to me if an asymptomatic person just stopped by for an X-ray and went home to quarantine. Sure, if you know grandma had 8 months to live, but she died last week from Covid, that's a Covid death. 

Just look up the thread. People are saying Spain is doing well, but they aren't counting in a similar manner. They are only counting patients with positive tests. Some countries won't count a Covid death if you have an underlying condition like diabetes or heart disease. 

So maybe they miss a Covid patient or two here in the U.S., but I just disagree we are under counting overall.

I am not comparing with other countries.

We are likely under counting the number of deaths due to Covid because we have way more overall deaths at this time than in similar years. 

We can compare year over year data which is usually pretty similar and see that there is a huge increase this year and that the majority of that increase is likely due to Covid. Some of that may be attributable to preventable deaths where the patient refused to go to a hospital in time because of Covid, and those deaths should be treated differently. The article I linked explains how they did that. The analysis still clearly points to under reporting, 

Florida in particular has a huge spike in the number of deaths from pneumonia this spring vs. other springs in that state. 

It is possible that there's been an unrelated outbreak of non Covid pneumonia that just isn't getting noticed by any reputable doctor or medical journal, but it's much more likely that those are simply under counted.

Whether the correct numbers look good or bad, or how they related to other countries, should be irrelevant in a public health crisis. We're well over 100k dead which is about .03 percent of the entire US population or roughly one out of 3000 people. We shouldn't be working with inaccurate information. People who directly benefit from low or high numbers shouldn't be involved in the reporting of those numbers, but they are. The purpose of that study is to estimate what the real numbers look like and provide transparency around where they came from. That should be the expectation in all of these cases but it clearly is not.

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3 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I am not comparing with other countries.

We are likely under counting the number of deaths due to Covid because we have way more overall deaths at this time than in similar years. 

We can compare year over year data which is usually pretty similar and see that there is a huge increase this year and that the majority of that increase is likely due to Covid. Some of that may be attributable to preventable deaths where the patient refused to go to a hospital in time because of Covid, and those deaths should be treated differently. The article I linked explains how they did that. The analysis still clearly points to under reporting, 

Florida in particular has a huge spike in the number of deaths from pneumonia this spring vs. other springs in that state. 

It is possible that there's been an unrelated outbreak of non Covid pneumonia that just isn't getting noticed by any reputable doctor or medical journal, but it's much more likely that those are simply under counted.

Whether the correct numbers look good or bad, or how they related to other countries, should be irrelevant in a public health crisis. We're well over 100k dead which is about .03 percent of the entire US population or roughly one out of 3000 people. We shouldn't be working with inaccurate information. People who directly benefit from low or high numbers shouldn't be involved in the reporting of those numbers, but they are. The purpose of that study is to estimate what the real numbers look like and provide transparency around where they came from. That should be the expectation in all of these cases but it clearly is not.

So like 3% of 1%?

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Just now, bostonfred said:

I am not comparing with other countries.

We are likely under counting the number of deaths due to Covid because we have way more overall deaths at this time than in similar years. 

We can compare year over year data which is usually pretty similar and see that there is a huge increase this year and that the majority of that increase is likely due to Covid. Some of that may be attributable to preventable deaths where the patient refused to go to a hospital in time because of Covid, and those deaths should be treated differently. The article I linked explains how they did that. The analysis still clearly points to under reporting, 

Florida in particular has a huge spike in the number of deaths from pneumonia this spring vs. other springs in that state. 

It is possible that there's been an unrelated outbreak of non Covid pneumonia that just isn't getting noticed by any reputable doctor or medical journal, but it's much more likely that those are simply under counted.

Whether the correct numbers look good or bad, or how they related to other countries, should be irrelevant in a public health crisis. We're well over 100k dead which is about .03 percent of the entire US population or roughly one out of 3000 people. We shouldn't be working with inaccurate information. People who directly benefit from low or high numbers shouldn't be involved in the reporting of those numbers, but they are. The purpose of that study is to estimate what the real numbers look like and provide transparency around where they came from. That should be the expectation in all of these cases but it clearly is not.

I agree we have extremely flawed data, and we're probably not going to have legitimate data until someone does a decent review of the whole thing years from now. I don't know what else to compare to when we're talking about our country under counting cases. If we're under counting, the rest of the world is doing it worse, or many are.

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1 minute ago, jplvr said:

I just backed it up with one example, so hop on your Google machine and do it yourself.

Russia is your example? Maybe you should check and see if other bastions of truthful reporting like China, North Korea and Iran are doing the same thing.

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17 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Whether the correct numbers look good or bad, or how they related to other countries, should be irrelevant in a public health crisis. We're well over 100k dead which is about .03 percent of the entire US population or roughly one out of 3000 people. We shouldn't be working with inaccurate information. People who directly benefit from low or high numbers shouldn't be involved in the reporting of those numbers, but they are. The purpose of that study is to estimate what the real numbers look like and provide transparency around where they came from. That should be the expectation in all of these cases but it clearly is not.

Assuming that study is accurate -- and I have little doubt that it is because that methodology makes perfect sense to me -- it's incredibly disappointing that we can't even track basic epidemiological data competently.

I've posted before that "covid deaths" seem like the most straightforward data to come by because they shouldn't be dependent on on rates of testing, but it sounds like I was completely wrong about that.  The article mentions at the very end that spotty testing might be one of the primary drivers of not having good data on deaths.  

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2 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

What's different about Spain, which has good public transportation and high density in many cities, but is at 0 deaths ? A conjecture that some people may not be susceptible to COVID-19. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/rfsquared/status/1277967169565802496

Is there a European country that doesn't have deaths decreasing at this point? Even Sweden has a pronounced, steady decline. It can't be all about "lockdowns". What is the common denominator for all the places the virus shows up, destroys for a few months, and then deaths decline?

Maybe the Oxford Epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta had the correct theory?  “The epidemic has in many places displayed a pattern which suggests it’s been brought down by natural processes, which does not just include acquired immunity, but perhaps cross-protection from having other related viruses, and possibly some innate level of resistance to start with"

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18 minutes ago, jplvr said:

I agree we have extremely flawed data, and we're probably not going to have legitimate data until someone does a decent review of the whole thing years from now. I don't know what else to compare to when we're talking about our country under counting cases. If we're under counting, the rest of the world is doing it worse, or many are.

It doesn't matter what the rest of the world is doing.

Number of deaths in 2020 is highee than the number of deaths in other years.

That's expected. 

It's more than the number of deaths in other years PLUS the number of reported Covid-19 deaths, and by a large amount.  

That's not expected.

Either there is another cause or there's under reporting of covid deaths.  

Those other possible causes were also studied.  

What other explanation is there?  The US is under reporting covid deaths.  Period. Whether that has anything to do with politics or other countries, that's not a topic for this thread.  

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44 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

I believe the 100 non-resident deaths are total, not just today.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-florida-coronavirus-deaths-cases-wednesday-july-1-20200701-vljb2vc6l5bmjhiyhrr7a2jlte-story.html

I've been looking for something official and kept coming up empty, but according to that link, this looks correct.

Deaths

Statewide: The official COVID-19 death total for Florida on Wednesday includes 3,550 residents and 100 people who are from outside the state.

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1 hour ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Hi Shades,

What would be the fallout be if the positivity continues to rise? 15%...18%...25% is there a cap? 

(I just filtered off 3-4 paragraphs and will send them via PM to you. If you want after you read it, you can either reply in here or post up what I wrote.) 

 

Do a search in google for what happened to hospitals in Spain, Italy and NYC.  That will happen in Florida if they don't do something.  It's inevitable, sad to say.

Florida has some advantages over those areas. 

First of all, the virus is not spreading as fast now as it was then.

Second, Treatment should be better now, than it was then.

But the disadvantage is that the Florida government is on record yesterday saying that lockdowns won't be happening.

 

Take a look at Italy as an example of what can happen.

Italy instituted a lockdown on March 9th.  That lockdown was instituted long BEFORE things got bad.

ON the date it was instituted, Italy reported 97 deaths.  They hit their PEAK PERIOD of deaths 3 weeks later.  So their peak came 3 weeks after their lockdowns.

 

So where is Florida on that Italy comparison scale? I'd argue they are approaching the point that Italy was at on March 9th.  Every day that Florida waits to lockdown is going to compound the misery that will come in 3-4 weeks.  

 

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2 minutes ago, shader said:

Do a search in google for what happened to hospitals in Spain, Italy and NYC.  That will happen in Florida if they don't do something.  It's inevitable, sad to say.

Florida has some advantages over those areas. 

First of all, the virus is not spreading as fast now as it was then.

Second, Treatment should be better now, than it was then.

But the disadvantage is that the Florida government is on record yesterday saying that lockdowns won't be happening.

 

Take a look at Italy as an example of what can happen.

Italy instituted a lockdown on March 9th.  That lockdown was instituted long BEFORE things got bad.

ON the date it was instituted, Italy reported 97 deaths.  They hit their PEAK PERIOD of deaths 3 weeks later.  So their peak came 3 weeks after their lockdowns.

 

So where is Florida on that Italy comparison scale? I'd argue they are approaching the point that Italy was at on March 9th.  Every day that Florida waits to lockdown is going to compound the misery that will come in 3-4 weeks.  

 

Actually, it is really hard to tell this.  Back in March there weren't testing anywhere for this.   Now we at least have decent testing (could be much better) so we know about a lot more cases now then we did then.  Are the number of reported cases now going to be enough to swamp the hospitals?  I fear that it will but I don't know.  

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Pfizer vaccine shows promise.  This isn't a stock price pump and dump, as they are showing the data.  I am rooting for this one since I do own a small amount of stock.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/virus-shot-from-pfizer-biontech-shows-promise-in-early-test/ar-BB16cRHP?ocid=FinanceShimLayer

Derek Lowe thinks it's positive news, so that's even better:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/01/pfizer-and-biontechs-first-vaccine-candidate

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Actually, it is really hard to tell this.  Back in March there weren't testing anywhere for this.   Now we at least have decent testing (could be much better) so we know about a lot more cases now then we did then.  Are the number of reported cases now going to be enough to swamp the hospitals?  I fear that it will but I don't know.  

I have no idea when Florida will cross the rubicon of where Italy/Spain/NYC were when they instituted lockdowns.  It would be an interesting research project.  I used deaths because we can't use cases.  Italy's early testing was poor, so we really can't compare the two using that stat.  

My main point was that the lockdown came, and then the peak came 3 weeks later.  So every day Florida and other states wait to do something, they are pushing that 3-week peak out another day, and making that peak worse.

 

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5 minutes ago, worrierking said:

Pfizer vaccine shows promise.  This isn't a stock price pump and dump, as they are showing the data.  I am rooting for this one since I do own a small amount of stock.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/virus-shot-from-pfizer-biontech-shows-promise-in-early-test/ar-BB16cRHP?ocid=FinanceShimLayer

Derek Lowe thinks it's positive news, so that's even better:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/01/pfizer-and-biontechs-first-vaccine-candidate

 

 

Very, very hopeful this works out!

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52 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

It doesn't matter what the rest of the world is doing.

Number of deaths in 2020 is highee than the number of deaths in other years.

That's expected. 

It's more than the number of deaths in other years PLUS the number of reported Covid-19 deaths, and by a large amount.  

That's not expected.

Either there is another cause or there's under reporting of covid deaths.  

Those other possible causes were also studied.  

What other explanation is there?  The US is under reporting covid deaths.  Period. Whether that has anything to do with politics or other countries, that's not a topic for this thread.  

This is interesting. I can’t keep up with this whole thread - can you post the link to the data you reference here?

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42 minutes ago, CR69 said:

Ugh. I just sent my son back to daycare today.  I was feeling some optimism that there really had not been any outbreaks at child care centers.

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Just now, Don Quixote said:

Ugh. I just sent my son back to daycare today.  I was feeling some optimism that there really had not been any outbreaks at child care centers.

It’s really weird that there haven’t been more and that this one is so large. Hoping it doesn’t become more widespread though. 

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7 minutes ago, CR69 said:
8 minutes ago, Don Quixote said:

Ugh. I just sent my son back to daycare today.  I was feeling some optimism that there really had not been any outbreaks at child care centers.

It’s really weird that there haven’t been more and that this one is so large. Hoping it doesn’t become more widespread though. 

Daycare centers here (New Orleans metro) have remained open the entire time, even when K-12 schools were closed down. If there have been any outbreaks related to our local daycare centers, they haven't made local news.

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Has there been discussion on the home test you can get by fedex?  This doesn't seem to be a suggestion anyone makes here so is it BS?  I have someone asking me if it's even real.  

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1 hour ago, Don Quixote said:

Ugh. I just sent my son back to daycare today.  I was feeling some optimism that there really had not been any outbreaks at child care centers.

There was a study out of Italy that detailed kids living in a house with a family full of positive cases never tested positive and a separate study out of Iceland that showed that young kids especially caught the virus at a significantly lower rate.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, jplvr said:

I’ve seen it rumored that there are lots of people who essentially have immunity from the outset, as implied by one of the studies in your link. While that doesn’t change anything about current outbreaks, it could be great news for the chances of a 2nd outbreak in any hard hit area.

I see it as a study with real promise. Not sure what @Doug B or @Terminalxylem or others think?

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Been fighting with anti-maskers on Facebook. So frustrating. Purposefully ignorant of the data, generally pro-Trump, anti-government, conspiracy believing nut-jobs disguised as normal reasonable humans.

 

But....Even the most conservative Blue Lives Matter, Trump loving nurses at work are frustrated and angry with Trumps responses to this thing. (Nurses are generally all over the political spectrum, but there are tons of them married to cops)

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41 minutes ago, shader said:

I’ve seen it rumored that there are lots of people who essentially have immunity from the outset, as implied by one of the studies in your link. While that doesn’t change anything about current outbreaks, it could be great news for the chances of a 2nd outbreak in any hard hit area.

I see it as a study with real promise. Not sure what @Doug B or @Terminalxylem or others think?

That part was most interesting to me as well. 

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Illustrating how little we know about this virus longterm, is a study from Belgium.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/health/119517/only-5-5-of-belgians-have-coronavirus-antibodies-study-shows/

The numbers of people with antibodies in their studies are dropping.  

One possibility here is that some people come in contact with the virus, gain some antibodies (we would think of them as asymptomatic at this point), but then a few months later the antibodies are gone.  

Therefore in that scenario it's possible that they would not have immunity.

An NYT podcast I was listening to about two weeks ago was talking about how we really don't know if this immunity is going to happen, and we don't know for how long it will happen.  

 

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48 minutes ago, shader said:
1 hour ago, jplvr said:

I’ve seen it rumored that there are lots of people who essentially have immunity from the outset, as implied by one of the studies in your link. While that doesn’t change anything about current outbreaks, it could be great news for the chances of a 2nd outbreak in any hard hit area.

I see it as a study with real promise. Not sure what @Doug B or @Terminalxylem or others think?


Funny you should ask. I was earlier reading a Guardian piece about how it's been difficult for epidemiologists to account for certain areas NOT getting hit hard, or certain areas having unusually low numbers of deaths even when they have plenty of cases.

One working theory -- probably still kind of fluffy and fringe but worth study IMHO -- is that past exposure to other coronaviruses (or even other types of viruses altogether) can give partial immunity to COVID-19 (spoilered for length but not all that long, worth the read):


In the Observer last weekend, neuroscientist and Covid-19 modeller Karl Friston of University College London suggested – on the basis of his comparison of German and British data – that the relatively low fatality rates recorded in Germany were due to unknown protective factors at play. “This is like dark matter in the universe: we can’t see it, but we know it must be there to account for what we can see,” he said.

While this is a novel view – most experts praise Germany’s lockdown and systematic testing regime – others are working hard to identify factors which are modulating the spread of Covid-19 and in doing so could explain other puzzles – such as why Japan seems to have avoided a lethal first wave despite its relatively old population and lacklustre public health response, or why Denmark, Austria and the Czech Republic have reported no surge in cases despite their early easing of lockdown measures. That could shape how governments manage the risks of a second wave.

One thing seems clear: there are many reasons why one population is more protected than another. Theoretical epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta of the University of Oxford thinks that a key one is immunity that was built up prior to this pandemic. “It’s been my hunch for a very long time that there is a lot of cross-protection from severe disease and death conferred by other circulating, related bugs,” she says. Though that cross-protection may not protect a person from infection in the first place, it could ensure they only experience relatively mild symptoms.

Gupta’s hunch has remained just that, because of the lack of data on immunity to Covid-19. Antibody testing, as we know, was slow to get going and unreliable to begin with, and the results to date suggest that the percentages of populations carrying antibodies to the Covid-19 virus are often in single or low-double digits. New, more sensitive antibody tests that have become available in recent weeks could soon provide a much more accurate picture if deployed widely enough, but there are already hints that the results to date may be underestimates.

First there was evidence based on diagnostic testing of postmortem samples from patients who died in December that the virus was circulating in western countries – notably France and the US – about a month earlier than was initially thought. New research shows that another component of the human immune response – T cells, which help orchestrate the antibody response – show memory for coronavirus infection when exposed to Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.

In a paper published in Cell on 14 May, researchers at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California reported that T cells in blood drawn from people between 2015 and 2018 recognised and reacted to fragments of the Sars-CoV-2 virus. “These people could not have possibly seen Sars-CoV-2,” says one of the paper’s senior authors, Alessandro Sette. “The most reasonable hypothesis is that this reactivity is really cross-reactivity with the cousins of Sars-CoV-2 – the common cold coronaviruses which circulate very broadly and generally give rather mild disease.”

The finding supported an earlier one from a group at the Charité hospital in Berlin, detecting T cell reactivity to proteins in the Sars-CoV-2 virus in 83% of Covid-19 patients but also in 34% of healthy volunteers who had tested negative for the virus itself.

David Heymann, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who advises the World Health Organization on Covid-19, says these results are important, but cautions that cross-reactivity doesn’t necessarily translate into immunity. To determine whether it does would involve following a large number of people who show such cross-reactivity to see if they are protected, if not from infection with Covid-19, then at least from severe forms of the disease.

It is, however, a reasonable hypothesis that exposure to other coronaviruses could confer protection, Sette says. “We’ve seen it before, for example with the 2009 H1N1 flu.” Older people fared well compared to other age groups in that pandemic, he says, probably because their immune systems had been primed by exposure to similar flu strains from decades before. That could be the reason the 2009 pandemic was less lethal than other flu pandemics in history, killing an estimated 200,000 people globally.

If exposure to other coronaviruses does protect against Covid-19, Gupta says, then variability in that exposure could explain much of the difference in fatality rates between countries or regions. Exposure to the related virus that caused the epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) in 2002-4 might have afforded some protection to east Asians against Covid-19, for example.

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My brother (late 40s) just tested positive on Monday (2 days ago).

Woke up on Monday achy, mild fever, mild headache.  He's a doc, so he got tested that morning and got the results that afternoon.  Went home, began quarantine in the basement.  Yesterday he had the dry cough but the other symptoms had abated.  Today he reports himself basically 90% of the way back to normal.

So it looks like for him it will be a non-event, other than a couple of weeks of no work and minimal family.  Awesome.  We have friends who have been hit much harder.

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Dr. Charles Lockwood, USF: Despite a seven-fold increase in daily cases of COVID-19, Florida is down to about 32 deaths per day. The case fatality rate for the state has dropped from about 5.5% of cases resulting in death to 2.3%, one of the lowest of any state.

Further evidence we're not dealing with the same situation as March/April. I'm sure shader's death predictions will come true any day now though.

One more thing....

TWO WEEKS!!!!

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29 minutes ago, shader said:

Illustrating how little we know about this virus longterm, is a study from Belgium.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/health/119517/only-5-5-of-belgians-have-coronavirus-antibodies-study-shows/

The numbers of people with antibodies in their studies are dropping.  

One possibility here is that some people come in contact with the virus, gain some antibodies (we would think of them as asymptomatic at this point), but then a few months later the antibodies are gone.  

Therefore in that scenario it's possible that they would not have immunity.

One question I have about antibodies is: Does the body need to have antibodies in the blood at all times ready to go against a given pathogen? For example, do I still have active chicken pox antibodies in my blood right now, over 40 years after my childhood infection?

Or is it instead that I may no longer have chicken pox antibodies in my blood, but my immune system can now recognize the chicken pox virus and quickly "manufacture" chicken pox antibodies as needed upon exposure?

And could it be that way for COVID-19? The antibodies go away, but the immune system can recognize the virus and then produce more antibodies in the event of a second exposure?

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7 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Further evidence we're not dealing with the same situation as March/April. I'm sure shader's death predictions will come true any day now though.

One more thing....

TWO WEEKS!!!!

So a seven fold increase in infected (that would be 700%), and a death rate that dropped  only 60%, and you think the deaths are a joking matter? Wow.

Edited by DallasDMac
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