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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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2 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

So a seven fold increase in infected (that would be 700%), and a death rate that dropped  only 60%, and you think the deaths are a joking matter? Wow.

Where's the joke, those are facts. The joke rests in how we still are making poor decisions based on the distribution of only half the available set of facts.

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My dad has been sick for a few weeks.  My mom called me today to say he was about to die.  I said some final words to him and he could hear me but was unable to respond.  He passed a short time later.

Not to derail anything, but we had our baby last night! She's doing amazingly well. Due to the hospital's pandemic policies, I had to leave her right after my wife was released from recovery. I can't

On a positive note, my wife gave birth to our first child this morning!! We were expecting our daughter to be born in the first week of April, which does not align very well if this hospital sees a ma

This isn't even complicated. These same number of people were walking around with this in March and April, they just weren't being tested. And we had governors sending Covid patients to nursing homes. The inevitability that we will have worse suffering to come, is rooted in misinformation and the idea that we would repeat the same stupid mistakes. It also relies on younger people suddenly dying from the same virus most didn't even know they had in the Spring. Note: these same age groups are still walking into clinics symptom-free testing positive and then returning to full health 2-3 days later. Sheer volume of positives DOES NOT equal uncontrollable hospitalizations or a surge in deaths. Hospitals are built to run on 85-90% ICU occupancy and honest administrators are admitting that their biggest issue in their ICUs are all the non-Covid patients who put off serious issues too long because they were afraid to come in.

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21 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:
Quote

Dr. Charles Lockwood, USF: Despite a seven-fold increase in daily cases of COVID-19, Florida is down to about 32 deaths per day. The case fatality rate for the state has dropped from about 5.5% of cases resulting in death to 2.3%, one of the lowest of any state.

Further evidence we're not dealing with the same situation as March/April. I'm sure shader's death predictions will come true any day now though.

The part in red ... over what time frame?

Over the past two weeks (6/18 - 7/1), it's been 38 per day. When you take out weekend-lag days (Sundays & Mondays) from that same time period, it's 45 per day:

     Date     Cases   Deaths  Deaths on day
---------   -------   ------  -------------
 7/1/2020   158,997   3,550   45
6/30/2020   152,434   3,505   58
6/29/2020   146,341   3,447   28
6/28/2020   141,075   3,419   29
6/27/2020   132,545   3,390   24
6/26/2020   122,960   3,366   39
6/25/2020   114,018   3,327   46
6/24/2020   109,014   3,281   43
6/23/2020   103,503   3,238   65
6/22/2020   100,217   3,173   12
6/21/2020    97,291   3,161   17
6/20/2020    93,797   3,144   40
6/19/2020    89,748   3,104   43
6/18/2020    85,926   3,061   43

Not an immense difference, but if Dr. Lockwood is going to speak authoritatively, we need to know something about his underlying data. For instance: "32 deaths per day" over what time period?

Edited by Doug B
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20 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

So a seven fold increase in infected (that would be 700%), and a death rate that dropped  only 60%, and you think the deaths are a joking matter? Wow.

As JaxBill posted earlier, the average age of infection in Florida a few months ago was over 50.  Since age is the single biggest factor in death rate that's out there, a much lower median age (right now it's around 40) will lead to a lower death rate.

But on the flipside, the number of people in Florida with covid is going to be much higher than it was previously.  With a governor that refuses to lock down, it's difficult to see a scenario where Florida isn't losing a lot of people within 2-4 weeks.  It's a sad thing, but worse damage can be stopped with quick intervention.

If you're in the South, wear masks when you're out, and stay home as much as possible.

Edited by shader
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It's gotten to the point where I wish people would just friggin' wear a mask not just because it's that simple to control this virus, but it would also bring the numbers down low enough that they can no longer be manipulated to serve agendas for either side. If someone gives the complete picture, it just might be the first time.

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9 minutes ago, shader said:

As JaxBill posted earlier, the average age of infection in Florida a few months ago was over 50.  Since age is the single biggest factor in death rate that's out there, a much lower median age (right now it's around 40) will lead to a lower death rate.

But on the flipside, the number of people in Florida with covid is going to be much higher than it was previously.  With a governor that refuses to lock down, it's difficult to see a scenario where Florida isn't losing a lot of people within 2-4 weeks.  It's a sad thing, but worse damage can be stopped with quick intervention.

If you're in the South, wear masks when you're out, and stay home as much as possible.

 

It's important to realize that treatments for all ages are substantially better and will continue to get better until we get a vaccine in Q4.

People aren't dying at the alarming rate they were three months ago.  Death rates are inching closer to flu death rates.

 

Edited by TripItUp
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I don't understand.  looking at the data, the current spike in positive cases started Jun 19th.  That will be two weeks on Friday.  Yet, deaths continue on the same general downwards trend since early May.

Shouldn't the deaths start to peak along with the higher cases?  What's going on?  

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1 hour ago, jobarules said:

That was almost 2 weeks ago. Do you have any symptoms?

No, none. Neither did he. He golfed with a friend who got pretty sick, so he got tested. Tests are local, free, and pretty painless so I felt like I should get one. When I scheduled the test it said 2-4 days for results. After I took it, the lady at the window said they are pretty backlogged and it would likely be 5-8 days. 

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4 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

So like 3% of 1%?

Yes. Like 3 percent of one percent of the population is already dead so far this year, and tomorrow is thr exact midpoint of the year.  

And those numbers are under reported. The total number of deaths in the US is up by more than the 130,000 reported deaths so far, compared year over year with 2016-2019. Florida in particular has been reporting a huge spike in deaths from pneumonia, compared with the last 5 years. 

And unless there is a miracle curw, the second half of the year will likely have many more deaths than the first half. We are already seeing hospital overrun and unavailability of ventilators on july 1st. We were nowhere near this point on January first. The vast majority of those deaths have been in the last three months, and the new cases are increasing, not decreasing.

By the end of the year, it may be close to .1 percent of the population dead from this virus.  And that's just the deaths. Many more will have permanent effects, while others will only cough up blood for a few weeks, be unable to work, lose their healthcare coverage and put anyone who visits them or lives with them in danger. 

But let's forget all that. What's a couple hundred thousand deaths compared to, say, heart disease, which kills a little over 600,000 Americans a year?

Have you personally made any lifestyle changes to avoid the fraction of a percent chance that you will die of heart disease this year?  Do you get your blood pressure and cholesterol checked? Take any medication? Did you lose weight or do cardio for something that only kills a couple percent of a percent of the population each year? 

Cancer kills around 600,000 people a year, but that's all forms of cancer. 

Skin cancer, colorectal cancer and prostate cancer kill about 120,000 people combined each year in the US. Do you wear sunblock? Have you let your doctor give you the wiggly finger?

Back in 1982, there were about 27,000 drunk driving deaths in the U.S. That number is down by about two thirds. Do you drink and drive? Would you let your friends drink and drive?  It doesnt kill nearly as many people as Covid. 

We routinely change our behavior for things that are far less dangerous than Covid, and in ways that are far more invasive. There's an ongoing debate in the medical community whether digital rectal exams are even effective, and since they are often followed by a colonoscopy it may make more sense to just have more colonoscopies and not have anyone put fingers up butts. Doctors and patients alike should be thrilled to think that might not be necessary anymore - yet people who routinely submit to a finger in their butt will complain about wearing masks. 

Wear your friggin mask. 

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17 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

And unless there is a miracle curw, the second half of the year will likely have many more deaths than the first half. We are already seeing hospital overrun and unavailability of ventilators on july 1st. We were nowhere near this point on January first. The vast majority of those deaths have been in the last three months, and the new cases are increasing, not decreasing.

 

Where is there a shortage of ventilators? I thought we currently have a huge excess of ventilators.

Bottom line, we will be able to handle this much better this time around. Deaths are still flat or declining while cases have been increasing for 2 weeks. There is no way in hell there are more deaths in the 2nd half of the year. Impossible. But keep with the we are all gonna die ramblings.

Edited by Coach Morris Buttermaker
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1 minute ago, Coach Morris Buttermaker said:

Where is there a shortage of ventilators? I thought we currently have a huge excess of ventilators.

Bottom line, we will be able to handle this much better this time around. Deaths are still flat or declining while cases have been increasing for 2 weeks. There is no way in hell there are more deaths in the 2nd half of the year. Impossible. But keep with the we are all gonna die ramblings.

Do you think posts like this are helpful?

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2 hours ago, renesauz said:

Been fighting with anti-maskers on Facebook. So frustrating. Purposefully ignorant of the data, generally pro-Trump, anti-government, conspiracy believing nut-jobs disguised as normal reasonable humans.

 

But....Even the most conservative Blue Lives Matter, Trump loving nurses at work are frustrated and angry with Trumps responses to this thing. (Nurses are generally all over the political spectrum, but there are tons of them married to cops)

A guy I know and have worked with previously was calling it all a hoax just yesterday.  My buddy that currently has covid bad also knows him and invited him to meet up and share a fully paid all-you-can-eat steak and seafood dinner. He has repeated the offer several times, as the idiot has gone completely silent.

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1 hour ago, Mr Anonymous said:

This isn't even complicated. 

Seriously? I know you wrote much more but seriously? What's not complicated right now? Every action creates a reaction but if the action is the action you want to see in action then yeah it's not complicated. ;)

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I asked the Orlando doc I mentioned earlier for some clarification. He said they are preparing like there will be a surge, but they only have 7 ICU patients for Covid at the moment. He thinks 50 overall patients who are Covid positive in their system. I asked because he mentioned 50 patients in his worried post, and I remembered their expanded capacity was in the 60’s (28 ICU beds normally). 
 

Saw another post from a guy in Miami who is pretty connected. His admin friend from a local hospital group says they’re fine, but in the same post he pointed out there was an official release from another hospital group who was considering postponing electives. 
 

I think worry is fine. Fear is unnecessary at this point. 

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2 hours ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Further evidence we're not dealing with the same situation as March/April. I'm sure shader's death predictions will come true any day now though.

One more thing....

TWO WEEKS!!!!

Wait, what? 

Can you just clarify? Are you downplaying everyone testing positive? Are you saying that even though the numbers are staggering with positive tests that most citizens shouldn't be vigilant? 

Also let's not push Shader, his vertical/lane/POV is well established and it's wide with passengers so I wouldn't be so cavalier in assuming you might be right in 2 weeks...

I'll repeat that some hospitals in Palm Beach have filled their CV-19 units or sections of the hospital to keep others from contracting the virus. Even if you want to quarantine those folks who are sick there simply isn't room and eventually someone is going to get really sick and die that didn't need to. Do you not agree with this? 

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This just in... Connecticut still fighting strong against COVID.

Deaths - 2 dead for the 2nd day in a row, and single digits for 6 straight.  The last time we could say that, we had only 19 deaths.

Positivity - One half of 1 percent today - the lowest we've ever had.

Bars never opened here, and that is playing in a large role.  Masks are everywhere, and people are still "excellent to each other", which is all Bill & Ted really want.  I will try to speak for the bulk of the CT citizens when I say Gov Lamont is doing a great job.  He doesn't candy coat the bad stuff, and he's not all "Mission Accomplished" about the good stuff.

I am off for the next 4 days, so I think tonight is a good night to enjoy some local brews.  Cheers!

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2 hours ago, Mr Anonymous said:

It's gotten to the point where I wish people would just friggin' wear a mask not just because it's that simple to control this virus, but it would also bring the numbers down low enough that they can no longer be manipulated to serve agendas for either side. If someone gives the complete picture, it just might be the first time.

I usually stay out of these threads (and the political forum) but what the heck are you talking about?  Agendas?  All anyone should care about right now is stopping covid asap.  One party seems to share the same opinion.  For anyone to try and compare parties "agendas" at this point would be laughable, if so many people were not dying.  The right has a lot of blood on their hands already imo.  And it seems to be getting worse by the day.  Thank god I live in RI. 

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22 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

This just in... Connecticut still fighting strong against COVID.

Deaths - 2 dead for the 2nd day in a row, and single digits for 6 straight.  The last time we could say that, we had only 19 deaths.

Positivity - One half of 1 percent today - the lowest we've ever had.

Bars never opened here, and that is playing in a large role.  Masks are everywhere, and people are still "excellent to each other", which is all Bill & Ted really want.  I will try to speak for the bulk of the CT citizens when I say Gov Lamont is doing a great job.  He doesn't candy coat the bad stuff, and he's not all "Mission Accomplished" about the good stuff.

I am off for the next 4 days, so I think tonight is a good night to enjoy some local brews.  Cheers!

Same in RI fwiw.  We are lucky.

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1 hour ago, Coach Morris Buttermaker said:

Where is there a shortage of ventilators? I thought we currently have a huge excess of ventilators.

Bottom line, we will be able to handle this much better this time around. Deaths are still flat or declining while cases have been increasing for 2 weeks. There is no way in hell there are more deaths in the 2nd half of the year. Impossible. But keep with the we are all gonna die ramblings.

https://www.kold.com/2020/06/25/banner-health-nears-capacity-covid-intensive-care-patients/

"The numbers keep going up and up and up and we don't know how high those numbers are going to go," Bime said.

He said the ICU at Banner Health is approaching an 80 percent capacity with the vast majority being COVID-19 patients. Nearly all COVID-19 patients in the ICU are on ventilators. The Arizona Department of Health Services shows 88 percent of ICU beds are in use and 46 percent of ventilators are in use which are the highest percentages for both ICU beds and ventilators on the data dashboard.

"This is the worst it has been," Bime said. "We went through the first wave and it was challenging but we did our very best."

That was a week ago. 

Arizona just reported a record number of new cases today. 

So did the United States, with our first day over 50,000 cases nationally. 

Newly reported cases are typically a leading indicator of deaths, not the other way around. 

You are welcome to consume disinformation but I would ask that you don't spread it because you are putting my family in danger.

 

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2 hours ago, Doug B said:

One question I have about antibodies is: Does the body need to have antibodies in the blood at all times ready to go against a given pathogen? For example, do I still have active chicken pox antibodies in my blood right now, over 40 years after my childhood infection?

Or is it instead that I may no longer have chicken pox antibodies in my blood, but my immune system can now recognize the chicken pox virus and quickly "manufacture" chicken pox antibodies as needed upon exposure?

And could it be that way for COVID-19? The antibodies go away, but the immune system can recognize the virus and then produce more antibodies in the event of a second exposure?

Depends on the infection. Antibodies generally decrease over time, but the can be detectable in the blood years-decades+ after some infections, most of them viral. Other infections have much more transient immunity.

Regardless, the body ramps up antibody production upon re-exposure.

NEJM article on the subject

 

 

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4 hours ago, shader said:

I’ve seen it rumored that there are lots of people who essentially have immunity from the outset, as implied by one of the studies in your link. While that doesn’t change anything about current outbreaks, it could be great news for the chances of a 2nd outbreak in any hard hit area.

I see it as a study with real promise. Not sure what @Doug B or @Terminalxylem or others think?

Not sure what to make of it, though there is other talk of MMR vaccination staving off severe infection.

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16 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

https://www.kold.com/2020/06/25/banner-health-nears-capacity-covid-intensive-care-patients/

"The numbers keep going up and up and up and we don't know how high those numbers are going to go," Bime said.

He said the ICU at Banner Health is approaching an 80 percent capacity with the vast majority being COVID-19 patients. Nearly all COVID-19 patients in the ICU are on ventilators. The Arizona Department of Health Services shows 88 percent of ICU beds are in use and 46 percent of ventilators are in use which are the highest percentages for both ICU beds and ventilators on the data dashboard.

"This is the worst it has been," Bime said. "We went through the first wave and it was challenging but we did our very best."

That was a week ago. 

Arizona just reported a record number of new cases today. 

So did the United States, with our first day over 50,000 cases nationally. 

Newly reported cases are typically a leading indicator of deaths, not the other way around. 

You are welcome to consume disinformation but I would ask that you don't spread it because you are putting my family in danger.

 

If anyone forgets how quickly the deaths can spike, take a look at the charts here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

On March 29 the US was in the 500/day range.  2 weeks later deaths were over 2,000/day.

 

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2 minutes ago, Cold Dead Hands said:

A vaccine on Q4 of this year would be a honest to goodness, Jesus and all the saints, miracle. I wouldn’t put money on it.

Rooting for it. But the odds of a vaccine that quickly are pretty unlikely I would think.

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3 hours ago, Mr Anonymous said:

This isn't even complicated. These same number of people were walking around with this in March and April, they just weren't being tested. And we had governors sending Covid patients to nursing homes. The inevitability that we will have worse suffering to come, is rooted in misinformation and the idea that we would repeat the same stupid mistakes. It also relies on younger people suddenly dying from the same virus most didn't even know they had in the Spring. Note: these same age groups are still walking into clinics symptom-free testing positive and then returning to full health 2-3 days later. Sheer volume of positives DOES NOT equal uncontrollable hospitalizations or a surge in deaths. Hospitals are built to run on 85-90% ICU occupancy and honest administrators are admitting that their biggest issue in their ICUs are all the non-Covid patients who put off serious issues too long because they were afraid to come in.

A link would really be helpful in supporting this statement. At least locally, our ICUs aren’t filled with non-COVID patients who deferred care. And hospital admin might paint a different picture, but ICUs don’t run especially well at 90% capacity, regardless of the diagnosis. But demands on the system vary tremendously depending on individual patient needs, and COVID patients are more time and labor intensive than average.

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Pennsylvania

“With this order, signed under Dr. Levine’s authority under the Disease Prevention and Control Act, masks must be worn whenever anyone leaves home. The order takes effect immediately.”

https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/gov-wolf-sec-of-health-signs-expanded-mask-wearing-order/

 

Edited by Cowboysfan8
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9 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Pennsylvania

“With this order, signed under Dr. Levine’s authority under the Disease Prevention and Control Act, masks must be worn whenever anyone leaves home. The order takes effect immediately.”

https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/gov-wolf-sec-of-health-signs-expanded-mask-wearing-order/

 

It is unfotunate that we have gone so far down the wrong path that we need an order requiring people to wear masks as soon as they leave their house. for #### sake. ugh

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17 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Pennsylvania

“With this order, signed under Dr. Levine’s authority under the Disease Prevention and Control Act, masks must be worn whenever anyone leaves home. The order takes effect immediately.”

https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/gov-wolf-sec-of-health-signs-expanded-mask-wearing-order/

 

Ugh that's a bit much

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30 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Pennsylvania

“With this order, signed under Dr. Levine’s authority under the Disease Prevention and Control Act, masks must be worn whenever anyone leaves home. The order takes effect immediately.”

https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/gov-wolf-sec-of-health-signs-expanded-mask-wearing-order/

 

It’s an excellent set of rules, imo. Wish 49 other states would copy it word for word.

https://www.governor.pa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/20200701-SOH-Universal-Face-Coverings-Order.pdf
 

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Indoor dining shut down in CA. Minimum of 3 weeks, could be longer. 

After bailouts, CARES act funding etc hospitals are projected to lose $320B this year. It’s freaking ugly.  Elective, profitable surgeries getting halted again. But people just dwell on death rates. Meanwhile, doctors are getting laid off. 

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I decided to compare death tolls for each state to the country with the closest population.  Why?  Because I am drinking and felt like it.

California (6164) = Afghanistan (774)
Texas (2541) = Nepal (30)
Florida (3554) = Sri Lanka (11)
New York (32143) = Romania (1667)
Pennsylvania (6741) = Rwanda (3)
Illinois (7152) = Rwanda (3)
Ohio (2901) = Bolivia (1123)
Georgia (2827) = Czechia (349)
North Carolina (1394) = Greece (192)
Michigan (6198) = Honduras (497)
New Jersey (15218) = Papua New Guinea (0)
Virginia (1786) = Switzerland (1965)
Washington (1339) = Hong Kong (7)
Arizona (1720) = Laos (0)
Massachusetts (8081) = Libya (25)
Tennessee (609) = Lebanon (34)
Indiana (2650) = Lebanon (34)
Missouri (1049) = El Salvador (182)
Maryland (3205) = Singapore (26)
Wisconsin (786) = Singapore (26)
Colorado (1697) = Denmark (606)
Minnesota (1482) = Finland (328)
South Carolina (766) = Oman (185)
Alabama (972) = Ireland (1738)
Louisiana (3238) = Mauritania (129)
Kentucky (572) = Panama (645)
Oregon (208) = Kuwait (358)
Oklahoma (389) = Georgia (15)
Connecticut (4324) = Eritrea (0)
Utah (173) = Mongolia (0)
Iowa (717) = Mongolia (0)
Nevada (511) = Armenia (453)
Arkansas (277) = Armenia (453)
Mississippi (1082) = Armenia (453)
Kansas (278) = Jamaica (10)
New Mexico (500) = North Macedonia (306)
Nebraska (276) = Guinea Bissau (24)
Idaho (92) = Bahrain (92)
West Virginia (93) = Bahrain (92)
Hawaii (18) = Equatorial Guinea (32)
New Hampshire (373) = Estonia (69)
Maine (105) = Estonia (69)
Montana (22) = Djibouti (55)
Rhode Island (956) = Djibouti (55)
Delaware (509) = Djibouti (55)
South Dakota (93) = Fiji (0)
North Dakota (80) = Bhutan (0)
Alaska (14) = Bhutan (0)
Vermont (56) = Luxembourg (110)
Wyoming (20) = Suriname (13)

Well, that only took 4 beers to complete.

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1 hour ago, shader said:

It’s an excellent set of rules, imo. Wish 49 other states would copy it word for word.

https://www.governor.pa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/20200701-SOH-Universal-Face-Coverings-Order.pdf
 

I realize section 3 of the order has to be in there.  I can just picture some healthy maroon with a giant smile on his/her face laughing and winking as they say they are exempt.  I applaud PA, it just sucks when an order signed by the state's health secretary and backed by the Governor becomes useless by me saying, "I am exempt, and you can't ask me why".

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2 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Holy ####, that worked!  I thought you were joking, but just typed exactly what you posted.  Thanx!!!

My message was a bit of a joke after being in the stock thread, but it works. I changed it in my quote to something more topical. :lol: 

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