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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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5 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

lmao... I had to google Dijbouti. 

Still, population density matters. :P

Tell that to Hong Kong.  If they were a state, they would rank 13th in population, yet they are the size of Rhode Island, and only have 7 deaths.

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My dad has been sick for a few weeks.  My mom called me today to say he was about to die.  I said some final words to him and he could hear me but was unable to respond.  He passed a short time later.

Not to derail anything, but we had our baby last night! She's doing amazingly well. Due to the hospital's pandemic policies, I had to leave her right after my wife was released from recovery. I can't

On a positive note, my wife gave birth to our first child this morning!! We were expecting our daughter to be born in the first week of April, which does not align very well if this hospital sees a ma

13 hours ago, moleculo said:

I don't understand.  looking at the data, the current spike in positive cases started Jun 19th.  That will be two weeks on Friday.  Yet, deaths continue on the same general downwards trend since early May.

Shouldn't the deaths start to peak along with the higher cases?  What's going on?  

Had the same question yesterday when I was perusing the data. Specifically looking at NC and SC as they are local and have been spiking in cases.

NC has been on a steady climb since ~May 1 and SC since about June 1, yet there is no real observable increase in deaths. Pretty steady trend line in both states.

NC side by side comparison

SC side by side comparison

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2 minutes ago, Worm said:

Had the same question yesterday when I was perusing the data. Specifically looking at NC and SC as they are local and have been spiking in cases.

NC has been on a steady climb since ~May 1 and SC since about June 1, yet there is no real observable increase in deaths. Pretty steady trend line in both states.

NC side by side comparison

SC side by side comparison

I do believe that all the sloganizing over "flatten the curve" is because there are given thresholds to a surge. If you stay below this limit, even in the face of increasing cases, then the care of hospitalized patients is manageable enough. Once the threshold is passed, you create the Italy/NYC scenario until it can be contained again.

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10 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

A link would really be helpful in supporting this statement. At least locally, our ICUs aren’t filled with non-COVID patients who deferred care. And hospital admin might paint a different picture, but ICUs don’t run especially well at 90% capacity, regardless of the diagnosis. But demands on the system vary tremendously depending on individual patient needs, and COVID patients are more time and labor intensive than average.

all truth

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10 hours ago, jobarules said:

Ugh that's a bit much

If you read the actual statement, it's actually right in line with what people should be doing.  Based on this order, I should be wearing a mask when I'm in my workplace and interacting with the public.  I should wear a mask if I go to the grocery store, Lowes, or a restaurant to grab my takeout order.  I don't have to wear a mask when I go out running in the morning or when I'm working in my private office.  Makes sense.

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1 minute ago, Worm said:

Had the same question yesterday when I was perusing the data. Specifically looking at NC and SC as they are local and have been spiking in cases.

NC has been on a steady climb since ~May 1 and SC since about June 1, yet there is no real observable increase in deaths. Pretty steady trend line in both states.

NC side by side comparison

SC side by side comparison

SC has been spiking in deaths, but recent.  Probably not affecting a 7 day curve yet.  I can't seem to find a good curve though - I've just been following the data and we were consistently around (or below) 12 deaths per day, and jumped up over 20 the last couple of days.  27 yesterday.

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5 minutes ago, hagmania said:

I do believe that all the sloganizing over "flatten the curve" is because there are given thresholds to a surge. If you stay below this limit, even in the face of increasing cases, then the care of hospitalized patients is manageable enough. Once the threshold is passed, you create the Italy/NYC scenario until it can be contained again.

interestingly, just found this: South Carolina hospital bed occupancy, since 4/13.  This shows a pretty clear, linear upwards trend, going from 54-61% in April to 71-77% today.  DHEC shows that 1160 of 7815 patients are COVID, or 15%.  that 15% accounts for the occupancy rise seen since April.  Extrapolating, that puts SC running out of capacity in 5 months, much less in hotspots - i.e. Pee Dee gained 20% in 2 1/2 months and is at 77%.  It's conceivable they max out in 2 -3 months.

of course, that assumes linear increase.  If this turns exponential, we could see this max out in a matter of weeks, not months.

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3 minutes ago, moleculo said:

interestingly, just found this: South Carolina hospital bed occupancy, since 4/13.  This shows a pretty clear, linear upwards trend, going from 54-61% in April to 71-77% today.  DHEC shows that 1160 of 7815 patients are COVID, or 15%.  that 15% accounts for the occupancy rise seen since April.  Extrapolating, that puts SC running out of capacity in 5 months, much less in hotspots - i.e. Pee Dee gained 20% in 2 1/2 months and is at 77%.  It's conceivable they max out in 2 -3 months.

of course, that assumes linear increase.  If this turns exponential, we could see this max out in a matter of weeks, not months.

Guess I'm just going to stay at home for the next few months...York at 78.1% capacity right now :(

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6 hours ago, Flying Elvis said:

Still, population density matters. :P

Deaths per million vs population density.  Stands to reason density would be one of the top factors, if not the top factor, right?  Here are the states with the biggest disparity between deaths per million and population density.  Perhaps we can figure out why these states are going against the grain...

Hawaii - 37 - 13th in density, 50th in deaths
Tennessee - 20 - 20th in density, 40th in deaths
Florida - 19 - 8th in density, 27th in deaths
California - 17 - 11th in density, 28th in deaths
North Carolina - 17 - 15th in density, 32nd in deaths
Texas - 15 - 26th in density, 41st in deaths
West Virginia - 15 - 29th in density, 44th in deaths

New Mexico - 26 - 45th in density, 19th in deaths
Colorado - 23 - 37th in density, 14th in deaths
Mississippi - 19 - 32nd in density, 13th in deaths
Louisiana - 17 - 23rd in density, 6th in deaths
Nevada - 16 - 42nd in density, 26th in deaths
Iowa - 15 - 36th in density, 21st in deaths

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32 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

If you read the actual statement, it's actually right in line with what people should be doing.  Based on this order, I should be wearing a mask when I'm in my workplace and interacting with the public.  I should wear a mask if I go to the grocery store, Lowes, or a restaurant to grab my takeout order.  I don't have to wear a mask when I go out running in the morning or when I'm working in my private office.  Makes sense.

Agree

I live in Pa, I like the rules. I just wish everyone would enforce them

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Not sure why anyone is trying to predict the future. We're kind of at an inflection point here and hopefully those states that are getting hit hardest right now will realize that they have to take this more seriously. Everyone knew cases would rise once we started opening up again. This is all virgin territory for us so we are learning as we go. The good news is that deaths are in a downward trend, be it from better treatment, younger age or hopefully a weakening of the virus itself. Hospitals aren't being over run at this point and it seems like supplies are available. The economy remains resilient and points to better days ahead. There have been many pivotal moments throughout this ordeal and I think the next week or so is yet another one.

I hope you all can take the opportunity to turn off the news at some point and enjoy this holiday weekend. Stay safe and wear a ####in' mask! 

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1 minute ago, jamny said:

Not sure why anyone is trying to predict the future. We're kind of at an inflection point here and hopefully those states that are getting hit hardest right now will realize that they have to take this more seriously. Everyone knew cases would rise once we started opening up again. This is all virgin territory for us so we are learning as we go. The good news is that deaths are in a downward trend, be it from better treatment, younger age or hopefully a weakening of the virus itself. Hospitals aren't being over run at this point and it seems like supplies are available. The economy remains resilient and points to better days ahead. There have been many pivotal moments throughout this ordeal and I think the next week or so is yet another one.

I hope you all can take the opportunity to turn off the news at some point and enjoy this holiday weekend. Stay safe and wear a ####in' mask! 

Uh yeah they are. Texas and Arizona are already at or have exceeded capacity in many areas. 

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1 hour ago, Worm said:

Had the same question yesterday when I was perusing the data. Specifically looking at NC and SC as they are local and have been spiking in cases.

NC has been on a steady climb since ~May 1 and SC since about June 1, yet there is no real observable increase in deaths. Pretty steady trend line in both states.

NC side by side comparison

SC side by side comparison

Very interesting, thing is we don't really know how widespread it was when testing was so bad (either here or other placed like Italy). What level of infection really moves the needle will be interesting.  Problem is we are seeing close to exponential growth in certain places so unless we bend the curve again I think we will hit that level at some point.  

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57 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

If you read the actual statement, it's actually right in line with what people should be doing.  Based on this order, I should be wearing a mask when I'm in my workplace and interacting with the public.  I should wear a mask if I go to the grocery store, Lowes, or a restaurant to grab my takeout order.  I don't have to wear a mask when I go out running in the morning or when I'm working in my private office.  Makes sense.

If you can keep 6 feet from someone.  If not then you should wear a mask.   Think best rule of thumb is to have a mask with you or on but pulled down so you can put it up if the 6 foot thing becomes an issue.

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1 hour ago, IvanKaramazov said:

If you read the actual statement, it's actually right in line with what people should be doing.  Based on this order, I should be wearing a mask when I'm in my workplace and interacting with the public.  I should wear a mask if I go to the grocery store, Lowes, or a restaurant to grab my takeout order.  I don't have to wear a mask when I go out running in the morning or when I'm working in my private office.  Makes sense.

Ok the linked article didn't mention that. It made it seem like people would have to wear masks in their yards.

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9 minutes ago, joffer said:

Texas COVID-19 Hospitalizations - link

on 5/4 - 1533

on 6/1 - 6904

Yowsa!  CT's #'s on the same days - 1464 and 100

Hopefully the death rate down there stays low.

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33 minutes ago, jamny said:

Not sure why anyone is trying to predict the future. We're kind of at an inflection point here and hopefully those states that are getting hit hardest right now will realize that they have to take this more seriously. Everyone knew cases would rise once we started opening up again. This is all virgin territory for us so we are learning as we go. The good news is that deaths are in a downward trend, be it from better treatment, younger age or hopefully a weakening of the virus itself. Hospitals aren't being over run at this point and it seems like supplies are available. The economy remains resilient and points to better days ahead. There have been many pivotal moments throughout this ordeal and I think the next week or so is yet another one.

I hope you all can take the opportunity to turn off the news at some point and enjoy this holiday weekend. Stay safe and wear a ####in' mask! 

It’s not just the states that are getting hit hard that need to take it seriously, it’s every one. The next hotspots are the ones thinking they’re doing good and don’t have to take precautions. If we continue to wait until we look like AZ/TX/FL then it will just be an endless cycle rotating between hotspots.

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Deaths per million vs population density.  Stands to reason density would be one of the top factors, if not the top factor, right?  Here are the states with the biggest disparity between deaths per million and population density.  Perhaps we can figure out why these states are going against the grain...

Hawaii - 37 - 13th in density, 50th in deaths
Tennessee - 20 - 20th in density, 40th in deaths
Florida - 19 - 8th in density, 27th in deaths
California - 17 - 11th in density, 28th in deaths
North Carolina - 17 - 15th in density, 32nd in deaths
Texas - 15 - 26th in density, 41st in deaths
West Virginia - 15 - 29th in density, 44th in deaths

New Mexico - 26 - 45th in density, 19th in deaths
Colorado - 23 - 37th in density, 14th in deaths
Mississippi - 19 - 32nd in density, 13th in deaths
Louisiana - 17 - 23rd in density, 6th in deaths
Nevada - 16 - 42nd in density, 26th in deaths
Iowa - 15 - 36th in density, 21st in deaths

I would think co-morbidities and % of deaths from residents of long term care facilities.  But those are just hunches.

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37 minutes ago, jamny said:

Not sure why anyone is trying to predict the future.

While I don't disagree with the sentiment, it seems apparent why folks are attempting to predict the future: figure out wtf to do about it.

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1 hour ago, beer 30 said:

Guess I'm just going to stay at home for the next few months...York at 78.1% capacity right now :(

Those poor people are as good as dead...RIP.  (inside joke...not serious to all those getting ready to jump my #### for making light of death).

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Deaths per million vs population density.  Stands to reason density would be one of the top factors, if not the top factor, right?  Here are the states with the biggest disparity between deaths per million and population density.  Perhaps we can figure out why these states are going against the grain...

New Mexico - 26 - 45th in density, 19th in deaths
Colorado - 23 - 37th in density, 14th in deaths
Mississippi - 19 - 32nd in density, 13th in deaths
Louisiana - 17 - 23rd in density, 6th in deaths
Nevada - 16 - 42nd in density, 26th in deaths
Iowa - 15 - 36th in density, 21st in deaths

For us (LA), New Orleans area got us off to a bad start early on (early to mid April), but we have since flattened out at a much lower level. In early April, we had many 60s, 70ish a couple of times, then a 90 and a 129 day. We've not had > 40 deaths on any one day since very early in May. 

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13 hours ago, DallasDMac said:

Rooting for it. But the odds of a vaccine that quickly are pretty unlikely I would think.

Widespread production and distribution in that timeframe is virtually out of the question even if we hit the homerun.  

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27 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/06/30/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/

 

Florida hit the trifecta today.  Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all significantly above their trendlines.

The median age is also older this week than it was last week, so that's rising as well.  

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29 minutes ago, shader said:

The median age is also older this week than it was last week, so that's rising as well.  

Deaths will spike if the older population gets infected.  Gotta isolate the kids grin their grandparents.

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Obviously people struggle with doing the right thing on this, which is why we are where we are. That's a lack of public awareness/education as much as anything else, huge failure there.

Anyway here's the point. If I was in AZ, FL, TX or one of the other places where people are infecting each other with a virus that was spreading out of control, I wouldn't need a government order to tell me to stay home except for absolute essentials. 

But we're not smart about this, so that awareness/mindset is likely wishful thinking.

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Everyone understands the 6 foot distance thing is just a general guideline, right?  You can get it from someone farther away and not get if from someone much closer.  I understand the risk will go down with distance, but I don't like reading/hearing the "but I'll stay 6 feet away" excuses for not wearing a mask.

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1 hour ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Obviously people struggle with doing the right thing on this, which is why we are where we are. That's a lack of public awareness/education as much as anything else, huge failure there.

Anyway here's the point. If I was in AZ, FL, TX or one of the other places where people are infecting each other with a virus that was spreading out of control, I wouldn't need a government order to tell me to stay home except for absolute essentials. 

But we're not smart about this, so that awareness/mindset is likely wishful thinking.

Same here. I've advocated for opening up but with masks, social distancing, proper hygiene, etc. Some of the states haven't done that and have almost taken an opposite approach of open it up with no restrictions. Protests just as we were beginning to open up didn't help. No statement on the protests themselves but everyone at home saw hundreds of folks, no social distancing, running around screaming, some masks, some not and thought, #### it. If they can get out so can I. And then there was always the "ain't gonna do it" crowd who morphed into the "I told you so" crowd and are currently towing the "you can put a mask on my cold dead body" line. Hint, you might get your wish.

As for me and the family, we stay home, go out when we have to but not taking unnecessary trips or hanging out with friends. Thought we could do it, appears as though we can't so get ready for reimposed shutdowns and wearing a mask for a while.

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3 hours ago, hagmania said:

While I don't disagree with the sentiment, it seems apparent why folks are attempting to predict the future: figure out wtf to do about it.

Those who do not attempt to predict the future are condemned to repeat it.

Or something like that.

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2 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

Is Florida still combining antibody and PCR positives in their "new cases"? I had read they were doing that in late May to boost their test #'s. Not sure why they'd still be doing it now that testing is ramping up. I'm pretty sure AZ does the same, combines the tests, which I have to think really skews the #'s and %'s when measuring vs. states not doing that. Especially since antibody testing doesn't seem that reliable.

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29 minutes ago, WDIK2 said:

Everyone understands the 6 foot distance thing is just a general guideline, right?  You can get it from someone farther away and not get if from someone much closer.  I understand the risk will go down with distance, but I don't like reading/hearing the "but I'll stay 6 feet away" excuses for not wearing a mask.

The "6 foot" thing was also aimed specifically at "large droplet" spread, before it was well understood that exhaled aerosols (i.e. 'breath') was a major transmission vector (if not THE major transmission vector).

Four people can stand in an office-building elevator, one in each corner. They'll be a good eight feet apart from each other in modern elevator cars. However, there's not great ventilation in an elevator car. If one of those four people has COVID, and no one in the elevator car is masked, it's only a matter of time before the COVID carrier pushes enough aerosol into the air -- from mere breathing, no coughs or sneezes -- to infect the other three. Even if everyone stays in their corners.

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36 minutes ago, WDIK2 said:

Everyone understands the 6 foot distance thing is just a general guideline, right?  You can get it from someone farther away and not get if from someone much closer.  I understand the risk will go down with distance, but I don't like reading/hearing the "but I'll stay 6 feet away" excuses for not wearing a mask.

Yep.  Likelihood of getting it is a function of duration, distance, air flow/dispersion and physical barriers, such as mask.  But, for the lazy, it's just easier to say 'wear a mask' and ignore all other variables. 

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7 minutes ago, NotSmart said:

Those who do not attempt to predict the future are condemned to repeat it.

Or something like that.

I think you're not right but I agree :thumbup:

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just another reason why i weep for your country , its like the new dark ages 

Alabama students attend ‘COVID-19 parties,’ gamble on who gets sick first

i know kids do stupid things , as i have done many ridiculous and dumb ### stunts in my 20's but i really think i wouldnt be this reckless
and i have not  heard of any other students in different countries doing this 

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How does everyone feel about the death numbers posted on worldometer?

Are the death totals accurate?  Are the states underreporting or overreporting?  And if so, which states?  I only ask because of the talk of underreporting positives and the overreporting of tests.

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31 minutes ago, waiver wire said:

just another reason why i weep for your country , its like the new dark ages 

Alabama students attend ‘COVID-19 parties,’ gamble on who gets sick first

i know kids do stupid things , as i have done many ridiculous and dumb ### stunts in my 20's but i really think i wouldnt be this reckless
and i have not  heard of any other students in different countries doing this 

 

Three years ago, these were the people eating Tide Pods.   :shrug:

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42 minutes ago, Doug B said:

The "6 foot" thing was also aimed specifically at "large droplet" spread, before it was well understood that exhaled aerosols (i.e. 'breath') was a major transmission vector (if not THE major transmission vector).

Four people can stand in an office-building elevator, one in each corner. They'll be a good eight feet apart from each other in modern elevator cars. However, there's not great ventilation in an elevator car. If one of those four people has COVID, and no one in the elevator car is masked, it's only a matter of time before the COVID carrier pushes enough aerosol into the air -- from mere breathing, no coughs or sneezes -- to infect the other three. Even if everyone stays in their corners.

Another annoying thing is I see the mask mandates require masks when unable to maintain social distancing. That of course leads to people saying they don’t need a mask because they’re keeping 6 feet away.

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13 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

How does everyone feel about the death numbers posted on worldometer?

Are the death totals accurate?  Are the states underreporting or overreporting?  And if so, which states?  I only ask because of the talk of underreporting positives and the overreporting of tests.

The issue is that states are delaying the classification of deaths for sometimes an absurdly long time.  While a conspiracy might be suspected, I think this is garden variety red tape at work.  

Using excess mortality might be the better way to judge what is going on.  Though that isn't perfect.

 

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6 minutes ago, Shankopotamus said:

 

Three years ago, these were the people eating Tide Pods.   :shrug:

I’m in mid-30s and I have high school classmates trying setup the same thing. Stupid doesn’t have an age restriction.

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