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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (26 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
This. #Murica #MahrightsDallasDMac said:
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NotSmart
Footballguy
I would venture the vast majority of people do not... which makes sense because statistics quickly get complicated and less intuitive once you get away from the basics.
The WI vs. TX student example was indeed a good illustrative reminder of one simple example of that underlying non-intuitiveness.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
That’s just the medical system abusing the fact that the govt is picking up the tab. My partner was in icu for 3 days and in the hospital for 7-8 days for respiratory issues related to the flu and the bill was 32k as I recall
shader
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
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BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
My guess...
It hit earlier. With more older people because nobody was prepared/aware.
Now we get some some time bought and the risky approaches are done by far more younger and healthier.
Id expect big drops in the NY/Mass % as every day goes by.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
I don't have line item list, yet. I have a pic of his bill total with amount, discount, subtotal, paid and outstanding.
Ill ask for it.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
On a serious note, I was surprised it’s still higher than other states. The cases from 3-4 weeks ago are lining up with other states. One would assume the medical care is better and they have experience. I don’t think NY and Mass are disproportionately unhealthy. Leaves me wondering about the vitamin D theory
gianmarco
Footballguy
More masks, fewer deaths
We had it wrong to start (myself included), but have had more than enough time to fix the mistake. Now it's costing people's lives.
We had it wrong to start (myself included), but have had more than enough time to fix the mistake. Now it's costing people's lives.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Pore size of N95 mask - 0.3 micrometers (1 x10 -6)
Coronavirus virion - 0.1 micrometer
Surgical and cloth mask pores - 0.3-10+ micrometers
CO2 molecule - 232 picometers - thats 1 x 10 -12
While it's a little more complicated than just pore size, why do you think a molecule ~ 1/1000th the size of the most restrictive masks would be impeded?
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
Cuz it gets hot on your face when you wear a mask and also you can smell your own stank breath.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
The initial hoarding taught me that many Americans never wiped their arses before the pandemic. Now I learn many don't brush their teeth and have never heard of mouthwash. I am learning new things about this country on a daily basis!
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Over 50 tested positive from a local chapel. Minister accepts responsibility. No **** Sherlock, you are most definitely responsible. You fully admit you followed exactly ZERO guidelines put forth by the state.
gianmarco
Footballguy
The numbers themselves don't specifically matter. The subsequent tracing and quarantining. And the general trends matter for purposes of reopening guidelines.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Well, we tried letting the brakes off slightly, but looks like the KP household is probably going back in their whole. I feel worst for the 13 year old - has no outlet since we are out of town a bit and nothing much to do here. Been letting him go to the park to shoot hoops a bit over the last month and that was fine, also went to the rec center a couple times since it was hot and he shot by himself. Then we (admittedly probably a no-Bueno choice) do a couple basketball groups. One is a 1-1 training with a girl who just graduated with her dad helping a little. Another was a small group of 6-7 that was doing a shooting camp. However in one day on Friday, I got a few pieces of news:
1. While he was at the rec center one day, 2 big groups of AAU teams came in and had practice.
2. One of those was an AAU team for his age.
3. One of the kids on that team tested positive.
4. 2 of the kids on his normal were at that practice, and one was at his shoot around despite knowing about that positive test.
5. on top of that the dad of the girl my son works with called that same day and said that she works with another coach who was working one on one with a kid that tested positive. Yeesh.
One week of letting off breaks and that stuff already pops ups. I get it - stuff will happen and work, school, and more and more of us will run across + cases. Mostly pissed about the one kid who was act the practice after getting the email about the positive test.
1. While he was at the rec center one day, 2 big groups of AAU teams came in and had practice.
2. One of those was an AAU team for his age.
3. One of the kids on that team tested positive.
4. 2 of the kids on his normal were at that practice, and one was at his shoot around despite knowing about that positive test.
5. on top of that the dad of the girl my son works with called that same day and said that she works with another coach who was working one on one with a kid that tested positive. Yeesh.
One week of letting off breaks and that stuff already pops ups. I get it - stuff will happen and work, school, and more and more of us will run across + cases. Mostly pissed about the one kid who was act the practice after getting the email about the positive test.
moleculo
Footballguy
My personal theory on why COVID is exploding in the south US but retreating in the north: people being inside.
Roughly April/May is when the weather is nice enough up north for people to spend lots of time outside - outdoor dining, recreating, back yard get togethers, golf, etc. After being stuck inside all winter, people look for any reason to be outside.
In the south, its reverse. Its too hot, and everyone retreats indoors. No one wants to be outside when it's 95 F and humid.
I think this thing spreads indoors almost exclusively. I think dispersion from naturally moving air helps, as does UV light. You get neither indoors.
I have nothing to back this up.
Roughly April/May is when the weather is nice enough up north for people to spend lots of time outside - outdoor dining, recreating, back yard get togethers, golf, etc. After being stuck inside all winter, people look for any reason to be outside.
In the south, its reverse. Its too hot, and everyone retreats indoors. No one wants to be outside when it's 95 F and humid.
I think this thing spreads indoors almost exclusively. I think dispersion from naturally moving air helps, as does UV light. You get neither indoors.
I have nothing to back this up.
toshiba
Footballguy
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Unfortunately news video from the Guadalupe River proved this to not be the case in today's 100 degree weather. Packed, not a mask in site.
phunktrain
Footballguy
According to worldmeters this was the lowest deaths since 3/23 with 254. Granted that excludes 5 states and San Diego, but still not 616.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
It was 616 deaths on Friday the 3rd. Worldometer doesn't update their charts right away.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Yes, I believe this is a factor too and have been surprised it hasn’t been discussed more. It’s not the only reason for the southern spread but I agree it contributes.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I don't think I agree with you on the north-south thing, but I've seen other people advance that same hypothesis. It seems to me that the difference in infection is more easily explained by sunbelt governors re-opening too early. Admittedly, these explanations are not mutually exclusive and it could be both.
I'm growing fairly confident that you're right about the bolded part. The protests were incredibly reckless, ill-advised, and amounted to an unethical human subjects experiment. But they did demonstrate pretty conclusively that it's apparently pretty hard to contract covid in an outdoor setting. It also sounds like the fomite vector was grossly overblown at the beginning of this. Indoor air seems to be the main thing.
Otis
Footballguy
moleculo
Footballguy
I stand corrected. They typically update their numbers at 9:00 Eastern...must have been a glitch yesterday.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Always been fascinated with Sweden’s approach and to see what happens with the virus there. Deaths decreasing sharply since May while cases increased. Cases fell off a cliff in Late June and lowest 7-day death average since it began in March. So without lockdowns, business closures and kids staying in school, is this showing the virus just dies out? Herd immunity much less than the 70%-80% often cited?
TheWinz
Footballguy
Big disparity in overall testing percentages from state to state. One state is approaching 1 out of every 4 people being tested , while 22 others have yet to reach 1 out of every 10 people. Some real head-scratchers when you filter the worldometer by tests per million. AK & PA really stand out for sure.
sho nuff
Footballguy
While it has been pretty hot...we have yet to be seeing the 100 degree and super hot days until just recently in TN. Not enough to seemingly keep people inside (and that shows in how many I have seen outside). Yeah, I get that is different than Louisiana, Georgia, Florida and of course Arizona.
We are just now moving into the miserable months really where we get more of those mid 90 and up degree days here.
I don't think its a bad theory...but anecdotally in the Nashville area it doesn't fully hold up from what I have seen and the temps we have had.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Have you compared Sweden's numbers to ours?
Cases per M - Sweden (7,071) vs USA (8,872)
Deaths per M - Sweden (537) vs USA (400)
Tests per M - Sweden (51,398) vs USA (111,670)
Redwes25
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
Under 5 years old - 1 of every 1.32M
5 thru 14 years - 1 of every 2.93M
15 thru 24 years - 1 of every 303K
25 thru 34 years - 1 of every 59K
35 thru 44 years - 1 of every 21K
45 thru 54 years - 1 of every 7.6K
55 thru 64 years - 1 of every 3.1K
65 thru 74 years - 1 of every 1.3K
75 thru 84 years - 1 of every 524
Over 85 years old - 1 of every 176
5 thru 14 years - 1 of every 2.93M
15 thru 24 years - 1 of every 303K
25 thru 34 years - 1 of every 59K
35 thru 44 years - 1 of every 21K
45 thru 54 years - 1 of every 7.6K
55 thru 64 years - 1 of every 3.1K
65 thru 74 years - 1 of every 1.3K
75 thru 84 years - 1 of every 524
Over 85 years old - 1 of every 176
Yep, it’s like people can’t help themselves and never learn from their mistakes. Memorial Day causes a big spike in cases due to people getting together for parties and at bars, you’d think they’d skip the 4th especially in a hotspot. I remember a shortage of disposable flatware was my sign of trouble then, I think yesterday it was walking in at 9am and the carts were all in use and the beer aisle was empty. Celebrate freedom by guaranteeing another lockdown will be needed.
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CR69
Footballguy
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Yes, #7 dpm, just ahead of France and US. None of these stats points to why virus deaths have been dropping from May to their lowest levels with little intervention in Sweden. The Imperial College model which helped form UK and US policy predicted 96,000 deaths by June in Sweden unless they locked down. They’re at 5000.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
