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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
shadyridr
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
It’s one thing to predict changes based on existing knowledge of coronaviral infections. It’s quite another to project the exact opposite, especially when there’s no real scientific plausibility behind that prediction. While anything is possible for a novel infectious agent, we should plan for the far more likely scenario that it behaves like nearly every other respiratory virus.
Sorry I was confrontational with that post, btw, but I feel like overly wishful thinking can be detrimental in getting a handle on the pandemic. Optimism is great as long as it doesn’t interfere with goals based on the current state of the science.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
Closed down the Galveston beaches, imposed some heavier masking, bars closed. Generally taking things more seriously.
The TMC slides showing things moving into a worse phase was actually noticed and people did right things.
the moops
Footballguy
That's a great parallel.
I would add returning shopping carts to their proper place as another
culdeus
Footballguy
AZ and their testing again:
Over 4000 new positives on less 12,000 tests. With a raw positive rate of 34%. I say raw because they combine PCR and antibody positives but report PCR tests separately. Antibody tests account for about 14% of the total tests reported, if you assume that the antibody and PCR positive rate is the same, that’s still 29%. That’s a very high antibody rate, if you adjust it to a more realistic 10%, that would put the PCR positivity at 32%. So their reporting policies skew the rate higher, it’s not a huge change and doesn’t change the horrible state of testing in Arizona.
79 new deaths reported today, probably the highest day that isn’t post-weekend catch-up or death certificate matching. Acute care beds continue to increase both with COVID and overall capacity but ICU did dip by about 10, a very positive trend that will hopefully continue.
Over 4000 new positives on less 12,000 tests. With a raw positive rate of 34%. I say raw because they combine PCR and antibody positives but report PCR tests separately. Antibody tests account for about 14% of the total tests reported, if you assume that the antibody and PCR positive rate is the same, that’s still 29%. That’s a very high antibody rate, if you adjust it to a more realistic 10%, that would put the PCR positivity at 32%. So their reporting policies skew the rate higher, it’s not a huge change and doesn’t change the horrible state of testing in Arizona.
79 new deaths reported today, probably the highest day that isn’t post-weekend catch-up or death certificate matching. Acute care beds continue to increase both with COVID and overall capacity but ICU did dip by about 10, a very positive trend that will hopefully continue.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
The data doesn’t really show any benefit, though it certainly makes intuitive sense that passive immunity earlier would be more effective. Problem is, it’s an expensive, limited resource, so it will always be reserved for sicker patients, unless we determine a biomarker to predict who’s going to crash and burn. The Leronlimab guys are using RANTES, though I think procalcitonin, CRP, d-dimer, IL-6 or any cytokine, etc. will be too nonspecific.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Has the "Bolsinaro doesn't really have Covid-19" conspiracy theory been posted in here yet? I haven't read every page of the thread but I have a Brazilian woman that cleans my house and she is convinced he's faking it so that he can "miraculously" recover using hydroxychloroquine, which apparently Brazil has stockpiled to ridiculous levels.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Anti-body testing shouldn't be in their numbers. You can't really understand their rate of infection if being modified by people who were infected and have since recovered and have anti-bodies.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
While it's baffling why we need examples of what to do, then what to not do, and then what to do again after messing up, it is promising that there are some trends that indicate if we do shut down the correct things (like bars) and take the necessary precautions (wear masks) that it is possible to reverse the course when things go badly.
Now the key is to not make the same mistakes over and over again.
MTskibum
Footballguy
Closing Galveston beaches had the opposite effect. That pushed a higher density of people to Freeport beaches and to Texas City dyke. Those places had more people than normal on the July 4th weekend because Galveston closed it's beaches.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
1. Not that we know of - early reports were based on flawed testing and/or longer carriage than expected.
2. Yes. Especially among those with mild/no symptoms. Unclear how much of that is artifactual from initial tests that were false positives.
MN hospitalizations have been holding steady around 250-260 the last week or so. But new cases are definitely up since around 6/15. Part of that is likely because testing is up (to around 12-15k a day now) but per John Hopkins the percent of positives has steadily climbed from under 2% in mid-June to nearly 5% now.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Although their position demands it, I’m inherently skeptical on bed/resource reports from public officials and hospital admin. Too much incentive to paint a rosy picture, or simply disconnected from reality.
Frontline workers always have a better appraisal of how dire (or not) the situation is.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
We really, really need to stop fixating on the death rate. We’re not going to know for a long time, and that will be in retrospect.
We have plenty of data to suggest this is bad and will only get worse if we fail proven mitigation strategies.
jplvr
Footballguy
I broke the key off in my boat, and a locksmith told me they couldn't come out to fix it even though we would have no contact.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
People use the wrong language regardless, including the media. Nowhere was there a true “lockdown.”
Most places only instituted shelter in place orders that were rarely enforced, much like quarantines. A few had curfews as well.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Exactly. Follow the strategies, be diligent, and the numbers will follow.
(Pretty sure it's roughly 1.2% though inclusive of all ages
)The same phenomenon occurred when Naples and Ft. Myers opened their beaches in May, before the Miami-Dade and Broward beaches first opened. For the July 4th weekend, some coastal cities were better prepared for the influx from SE Florida and had residency restrictions, but I'm not sure how that went down.
In addition, I'm certain that more people attended large house parties as a result of the July 4th beach closures.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Yeah...but for everyone 1,000 clowns like you driving in the lefthand lane, we get am Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos. The not following along mindset does have some benefits.
Let's don't get carried away. When you return the shopping carts, you are cutting into employee man hours. Returning them just benefits big business while strewing them all over the place provides overtime hours for someone in need.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
I’m sure there’s a thread on this somewhere, but are you arguing being lazy with cart return is a noble act?
Do you litter to keep sanitation workers employed?
The Commish
Footballguy
Really? Ours were hit/miss here....our neighborhood one was locked down....the town one was not. Splash pads were shut off though. It's a crapshoot everywhere you go and it really does impact conversation. It would do us all a world of good to understand how arbitrary the "rules" have been in all the various states (even within states for that matter) when having these discussions.
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
Not looking forward to the evacuate or stay situations that many of us will face this hurricane season.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
You don't buy the idea that a store pays overtime to employees to gather stray carts?
All city playgrounds were closed and the playsets were "roped off" with police caution tape from March to late May. Not exactly stopping anyone that chose to ignore it, but the message was clear. I didn't travel to other cities to see if they did the same.
the moops
Footballguy
themeanmachine
Footballguy
I don't understand the logic of closing beaches, it must be extremely hard to catch it in an outdoor location with breezes swirling around.
One of the most disappointing aspects of all this to me is that our public health leadership seems to give no better guidance on safe or unsafe activities than they did in March. We've certainly learned a ton by now about how it's transmitted, and should be able to give much more specific guidance about activities that are more or less safe. It would help tremendously in guiding which activities can open back up and which need to stay closed. Beaches are fine, bars need to be closed, should just be a no brainer. The lack of more detailed guidelines is another total leadership failure in all this.
lardonastick
Footballguy
Re: beaches, I've heard that the beach itself isn't the problem, but rather the few restrooms available to people, forcing closer, more contained contact. I dunno.
beer 30
Footballguy
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shadyridr
Footballguy
My Aunt invited my family and my two brother's families (children and all) to her beach house in two weeks. Still feel uneasy about this (not from my perspective but for getting her or my uncle sick). Both in 70s, both not the healthiest people. Maybe we will mask up in the backyard but no mask at beach obviously. Not sure what she'd say. She was the one who invited us.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
And here I was assuming a bunch of people were being selfish a-holes by ignoring social distancing, mask wearing, etc.You don't buy the idea that a store pays overtime to employees to gather stray carts?
I didn’t realize they were helping to provide healthcare workers with much-needed overtime.
Not sure I want to extend this discussion with my actual thoughts on those altruists, but maybe the mods need extra pay as well?
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
Agree that leadership and communication have been poor in many areas. As to beaches, there are generally concourses where people gather for concessions, bathrooms, beach showers, etc. Those areas are the issue, and even in RI they've been difficult b/c people aren't donning their masks when heading up to one, where masks are required.
shader
Footballguy
We should really rethink a lot of things as we learn more about the transfer outside.
Can churches hold outside services? Can we open beaches? I know this is very outside the box, but can schools incorporate more outside time? Can open air stadiums be filled to 50% capacity?
So many possibilities, but it would be nice to have the scientific community give a consensus to policy-makers on the virus and it's outside spread. The issue is that many scientists are political.
As an example, I heard a NYT podcast yesterday and I was furious with the scientific journalist that I've listened to every few weeks because he decided to move away from logic and get political.
He made some great points about studies that show how difficult it is to transfer the virus outside.
He used those points to try to explain why he wasn't worried about the protests. But then he tried to say that the Trump Mount Rushmore outdoor rally was bad for the spread, because the chairs weren't 6 feet apart. His logic was maddening, and I've been a big fan of that podcast over the last few months.
But the bottom line is, what are the risks of outside transfer? Of course they aren't zero, but if they are so low that they won't move the R0 significantly, then we can rethink a whole host of things.
It’s frustrating because they split up the test conducted but not the positives. But you can still get a good idea of the rate. Today’s numbers were:
Positives: 4057
PCR Tests: 11,931
Antibody Tests: 2262
Even if you figure an obscene number of 50% antibody positive, that’s still 2926 cases and positive rate of 24.5%. A more realistic 10% antibodies would be 3830 cases for a rate of 32%. A high but realistic 20% antibodies would be 3604 cases and 30% positive.
It would be great to know the true percentage but with the antibody tests only accounting for a small percentage of total tests, it just changes the degree of how horrible it is.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
RI to crack down on bars & restaurants that aren't following the rules. Nursing home visitation resumes this week. 1.2% positive rate. 2 new deaths - both 80+ years old. There's a link in that article about masks being passed by RIDEM on July 4 weekend with a video that shows a portion of the concourse, too. Damn good spacing on the beach in that video. 
Ohio state rep says "STOP GETTING TESTED!" . This is the same rep that said wearing a mask dishonors God.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
MTskibum
Footballguy
That is what I do, but I am not too embarrassed by floaters.Aren't you supposed to just go in the ocean?
MTskibum
Footballguy
But if you only close 1/3 of the beaches it just makes the open beaches more crowded. Terrible leadership in Texas, either close them all or none.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Here is the link about masks dishonoring God. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ohio-lawmaker-refuses-wear-mask-because-he-says-it-dishonors-n1201106
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
Pro tip: You can frame some other sap if you hold your breath, go under water, poop, then quickly swim away under water. Can't have those pesky mesh bathing suit inserts intact, though.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Aren't you supposed to just go in the ocean?
And then a big, brown shark caaaammmee!!! - Eddie Murphy
culdeus
Footballguy
I don't think it works like that. The county controls the beaches, except where there is a state park involved. Some beaches are private and i have zero idea how those are managed.
MTskibum
Footballguy
That is how it worked in the Houston area last weekend, Galveston closed it's beaches however all of the other beaches in the Houston area remained open with a higher density of people.
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