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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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54 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

We have likely decided to keep our kids home for virtual (as there will be a choice) at least for the fall semester.  (Have a junior and a 7th grader)  

Our district is starting virtual (August 4) through labor day at least.  Then, as of now, you have a choice to send in person or virtual but I believe have to make the decision at least for the semester.  With the unknown and likely having disruptions to in person (having to go virtual a few weeks if there are more spikes and so on)...just makes more sense to start and stay virtual and see where we are in December.

 

Ditto.  Sending two 7th graders virtual for fall.  The over-under on when the whole school goes virtual is October 1st, because once cases pop up, parents will pull their kids out again (IMO).

I’m on an advisory council for the school and told them yesterday “it’s just science and logic — you will have cases within weeks of opening, so you need to prepare now for how you plan to handle that situation WHEN not IF it arises.”  Another guy on the council who has a background in infectious disease research said “you also need a plan for helping people emotionally cope when someone in the community inevitably gets sick and dies.”

 

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Just odd seeing the replies to this CNN Breaking News Tweet from 25 minutes ago...

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1281967341278986242

"New York state recorded its lowest three-day death toll average from coronavirus since March 16, the governor said"

A sample of replies...

 

Quote

 

Republican states punching the air right now

At least someone knows what they're doing.

Thank you @NYGovCuomo

.CONGRATS, New York! I cannot wait for #Texas , especially the #rgv to get there!

Too bad we all didn’t do what NY did.

 

 

How brainwashed do you have to be to make comments like that?

 

Deaths

New York - 32K

TX, FL, AZ, GA - 12.4K combined

 

If only we were all more like New York, hooray NY!

Edited by Mr Anonymous
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5 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Key word being ACTIVE cases.

Yes New York has come a long way but still a long road to travel. Odd to see that state being celebrated while Texas and Florida are demonized. And California being ignored by the media entirely. The numbers don't lie.

Not much talk in here either about California. A continuing theme of parroting what the media decides we should be focused on. Much like the emphasis on death versus cases. Suddenly it's cases that matter. Do people really believe if we were performing 750K tests a day in March and April, there wouldn't have been as many cases then if not more than today? One thing we can clearly see is that deaths are way, way down now versus then.

If you read the definition for active cases on the website, it says active cases = total cases - total deaths - recovered.  The key here is recovered.  Please follow along with me as I explain:

New York - 236,117 = 426,016 - 32,375 - ????
The missing number from the website is recovered patients, which in NY's case is 157,524

Texas - 124,930 = 251,076 - 3,150 - ????
Recovered patients in Texas total 122,996

Are people in NY taking months to recover, while people in Texas are recovering the same day they contract COVID?  Or perhaps the numbers on worldometer are simply off?
 

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1 hour ago, Mr Anonymous said:

New York and California leading the way in active cases yet all we hear about is Florida and Texas. Weird.

We heard nonstop talk about New York for weeks.  We heard about Arizona a couple weeks back and lately Florida, Texas and California.  All of these are due to new cases and lack of stronger measures to slow things down.  You’re seeing something that is not there, IMO.

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51 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

 

Key word being ACTIVE cases.

Yes New York has come a long way but still a long road to travel. Odd to see that state being celebrated while Texas and Florida are demonized. And California being ignored by the media entirely. The numbers don't lie.

Not much talk in here either about California. A continuing theme of parroting what the media decides we should be focused on. Much like the emphasis on death versus cases. Suddenly it's cases that matter. Do people really believe if we were performing 750K tests a day in March and April, there wouldn't have been as many cases then if not more than today? One thing we can clearly see is that deaths are way, way down now versus then.

Deaths are way way up in FL and TX and CA. Not sure how anyone can dispute that.

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7 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Just odd seeing the replies to this CNN Breaking News Tweet from 25 minutes ago...

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1281967341278986242

How brainwashed do you have to be to make comments like that?

Deaths

New York - 32K

TX, FL, AZ, GA - 12.4K combined

If only we were all more like New York, hooray NY!

I see where you are going and I agree.  New England states got hammered in the death department early on, and I doubt the rest of the nation will EVER catch up.

Deaths per million
NJ (1751), NY (1664), CT (1220), MA (1204)
AZ (286), GA (279), FL (195), TX (109)

No way in hell the bottom 4 states have death tolls like the top 4.

Hey listen, I am from CT, so I know what you are talking about.  New England is not an area to emulate.  There's a great line from House, where Dr House says, "almost dying changes nothing; dying changes everything".  I think the people of New England can relate, and are more willing to follow guidelines from here on out.

Almost hit send until I realized... House was set in New Jersey!

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Just now, mr roboto said:

I hear CA mentioned w/FL,TX,AZ all the time. 
 

We heard about NY for MONTHS. 

Seriously. WTF are they even talking about? 

Creating a false narrative to complain about a false narrative is a special kind of mental gymnastics. 

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Active cases on Worldometer is totally stupid...

Rhode Island - Of the 17,312 cases, 976 died, leaving 16,336 on the road to recovery.  Of those, 14,651 are still on their way (90%).
Connecticut - Of the 47,287 cases, 4,348 died, leaving 42,939 on the road to recovery.  Of those, 26,054 are still on their way (61%).
Massachusetts - Of the 111,110 cases, 8,296 died, leaving 102,814 on the road to recovery.  Of those, 8,467 are still on their way (8%).

I chose these 3 states because they border each other, and were hit early.  Evidently, folks from RI don't heal too well (Mr Glass), and people from MA heal like Bruce Willis in Unbreakable.

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7 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Active cases on Worldometer is totally stupid...

Rhode Island - Of the 17,312 cases, 976 died, leaving 16,336 on the road to recovery.  Of those, 14,651 are still on their way (90%).
Connecticut - Of the 47,287 cases, 4,348 died, leaving 42,939 on the road to recovery.  Of those, 26,054 are still on their way (61%).
Massachusetts - Of the 111,110 cases, 8,296 died, leaving 102,814 on the road to recovery.  Of those, 8,467 are still on their way (8%).

I chose these 3 states because they border each other, and were hit early.  Evidently, folks from RI don't heal too well (Mr Glass), and people from MA heal like Bruce Willis in Unbreakable.

Is there a standard for reporting the recovered group? Pergaps MAs number is based on non-hospitalized and discharged? Or RI possibly leaving cases open until every last shred of symptoms disappear? The CRUSH RI app has a daily symptom feature that could tie in? 

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3 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

I wonder if #s are so good in NYC because we are getting close to herd immunity. Saw some stats that some of the hard hit neighborhoods in Queens in the early going have 68% positive antibody result rates.

Not even remotely close to herd immunity.

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3 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

Is there a standard for reporting the recovered group? Pergaps MAs number is based on non-hospitalized and discharged? Or RI possibly leaving cases open until every last shred of symptoms disappear? The CRUSH RI app has a daily symptom feature that could tie in? 

With such a disparity, I guarantee there is no standard.  At this point, there isn't even a standard for reporting deaths, let alone recoveries.

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Arizona with ok report today. About 3000 new cases with a 20% raw positive rate, a significant decrease. Could be a trend but with the weekend here, it will be a few days before we can tell if the trend continues.

The one day decrease the ICU COVID cases didn’t last and back to trending up. Record highs in pretty much every hospital category. Not huge but a consistent net increase in the ICU, acute care and ventilators.

Deaths were 69, probably a new normal for awhile even if cases are trending down. Reports are surfacing of hospitals filling their morgues and bringing in refrigerated trucks.

I haven’t seen the trends for today’s reporting but the last couple days have showed higher growth in the 45-54 and 55-64. Not surprising but hopefully not a trend that continues.

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40 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Arizona with ok report today. About 3000 new cases with a 20% raw positive rate, a significant decrease. Could be a trend but with the weekend here, it will be a few days before we can tell if the trend continues.

The one day decrease the ICU COVID cases didn’t last and back to trending up. Record highs in pretty much every hospital category. Not huge but a consistent net increase in the ICU, acute care and ventilators.

Deaths were 69, probably a new normal for awhile even if cases are trending down. Reports are surfacing of hospitals filling their morgues and bringing in refrigerated trucks.

I haven’t seen the trends for today’s reporting but the last couple days have showed higher growth in the 45-54 and 55-64. Not surprising but hopefully not a trend that continues.

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

If you click on laboratory testing and then scroll down to the chart showing number of tests by date, it's plummeting. 

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2 hours ago, shadyridr said:

I wonder if #s are so good in NYC because we are getting close to herd immunity. Saw some stats that some of the hard hit neighborhoods in Queens in the early going have 68% positive antibody result rates.

From what I’ve read, NYC does have about 20-25% positives on antibody tests.  While that doesn’t equate to herd immunity, it will make it more difficult for the R0 to spike, because every fourth person you come into contact with theoretically has immunity.

Combined with strict mask laws, NYC has some real reasons for optimism moving forward. 

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4 hours ago, Joe Summer said:

I see that "Operation: Move The Goalposts To 'Active Cases'" has officially begun...

 

Yes.  In one way it's helpful to have posters like that in here.  (Even though I have them all on ignore.)  We can always be certain of currency on the latest troll meme.  

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24 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

The sad thing about the whole "BUT WHATABOUT ACTIVE CASES?!" narrative is that it's only a matter of days before Florida and Texas eclipse New York and California in terms of the active case rate.

And then it'll be on to the next goalpost.

Right.  This follows "BUT TEH TESTING INCREASE!!!" and "BUT NO RISE IN DEF RATE!!!!!JUAN" into the dustbin of history.  

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8 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Arizona with ok report today. About 3000 new cases with a 20% raw positive rate, a significant decrease. Could be a trend but with the weekend here, it will be a few days before we can tell if the trend continues.

The one day decrease the ICU COVID cases didn’t last and back to trending up. Record highs in pretty much every hospital category. Not huge but a consistent net increase in the ICU, acute care and ventilators.

Deaths were 69, probably a new normal for awhile even if cases are trending down. Reports are surfacing of hospitals filling their morgues and bringing in refrigerated trucks.

I haven’t seen the trends for today’s reporting but the last couple days have showed higher growth in the 45-54 and 55-64. Not surprising but hopefully not a trend that continues.

Glad you mentioned AZ, because I was just about to do a deep dive into their numbers.  I printed out a few line drawing maps of the USA so I could write numbers on them.  As for cases per million, AZ instantly stood out to me.  Here are AZ's numbers compared to the states that border it:

AZ - 16,477
UT (8,803), NV (8,713), CA (7,907), NM (6,939)
Basically, AZ doubles all the other states.  So then I figured, it must be because they are testing at a higher rate, right?  Wrong

AZ - 118,193 tests per million
NM (192,472), NV (137,989), CA (130,991), UT (123,512)
In fact, AZ is last in testing of the 5 states, making their cases per M even that more impressive.

Well, at least they can't lead the 5 states in deaths per million.  Or can they?  They can.

AZ's deaths really aren't all that eye popping, but their case count is crazy.  What the heck are they doing ranked 4th in cases per million, when they are surrounded by a bunch of states that are nowhere near the top, and they are below the average in tests per million?  It just doesn't make sense.

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38 minutes ago, Aerial Assault said:

Yes.  In one way it's helpful to have posters like that in here.  (Even though I have them all on ignore.)  We can always be certain of currency on the latest troll meme.  

In decades of using this site I had never used the ignore list prior to this thread.

I do however genuinely appreciate the people that take the time to counter the bad info and thinly disguised political agenda posts.

And it's useful to see the latest agenda talking points that are being tried out.

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12 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Glad you mentioned AZ, because I was just about to do a deep dive into their numbers.  I printed out a few line drawing maps of the USA so I could write numbers on them.  As for cases per million, AZ instantly stood out to me.  Here are AZ's numbers compared to the states that border it:

AZ - 16,477
UT (8,803), NV (8,713), CA (7,907), NM (6,939)
Basically, AZ doubles all the other states.  So then I figured, it must be because they are testing at a higher rate, right?  Wrong

AZ - 118,193 tests per million
NM (192,472), NV (137,989), CA (130,991), UT (123,512)
In fact, AZ is last in testing of the 5 states, making their cases per M even that more impressive.

Well, at least they can't lead the 5 states in deaths per million.  Or can they?  They can.

AZ's deaths really aren't all that eye popping, but their case count is crazy.  What the heck are they doing ranked 4th in cases per million, when they are surrounded by a bunch of states that are nowhere near the top, and they are below the average in tests per million?  It just doesn't make sense.

We are #1 in the world, not just the US, in cases per capita.

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1 hour ago, shader said:

From what I’ve read, NYC does have about 20-25% positives on antibody tests.  While that doesn’t equate to herd immunity, it will make it more difficult for the R0 to spike, because every fourth person you come into contact with theoretically has immunity.

Combined with strict mask laws, NYC has some real reasons for optimism moving forward. 

What percentage of those that have been infected will have long term chronic health issues I wonder.

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On 7/10/2020 at 9:08 AM, mr roboto said:

Day 4 of “I probably have COVID”...

Test won’t come back till late next week. Cough, fatigue, slight headache, tightness in chest. Lungs sound clear. Feels like a mild to moderate flu. Today slightly worse than yesterday. I get brain fog slightly here and there. 
 

I have to be in an all-day series of on-camera Zoom meetings today. Wish me luck. 

How you feeling today?

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21 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

What percentage of those that have been infected will have long term chronic health issues I wonder.

The whole ‘chronic health issues’ is overstated. Hypertension and obesity are included, so it’s not like they are just talking about people who already severely ill.

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3 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

The whole ‘chronic health issues’ is overstated. Hypertension and obesity are included, so it’s not like they are just talking about people who already severely ill.

I think he's talking about the long term effects of  the disease for the people that "recover" instead of dying. 

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6 hours ago, Mr Anonymous said:

 

Key word being ACTIVE cases.

Yes New York has come a long way but still a long road to travel. Odd to see that state being celebrated while Texas and Florida are demonized. And California being ignored by the media entirely. The numbers don't lie.

Not much talk in here either about California. A continuing theme of parroting what the media decides we should be focused on. Much like the emphasis on death versus cases. Suddenly it's cases that matter. Do people really believe if we were performing 750K tests a day in March and April, there wouldn't have been as many cases then if not more than today? One thing we can clearly see is that deaths are way, way down now versus then.

Active cases on worldometers are meaningless.  NY doesn’t report recovered cases so it basically makes no sense. Look at NY hospitalizations which are lowest since mid-March. If you look where NY was and is now it is a success story. 
 

Latest NY numbers - https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-updates-new-yorkers-states-progress-during-covid-19-pandemic-6


 

 

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43 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Glad you mentioned AZ, because I was just about to do a deep dive into their numbers.  I printed out a few line drawing maps of the USA so I could write numbers on them.  As for cases per million, AZ instantly stood out to me.  Here are AZ's numbers compared to the states that border it:

AZ - 16,477
UT (8,803), NV (8,713), CA (7,907), NM (6,939)
Basically, AZ doubles all the other states.  So then I figured, it must be because they are testing at a higher rate, right?  Wrong

AZ - 118,193 tests per million
NM (192,472), NV (137,989), CA (130,991), UT (123,512)
In fact, AZ is last in testing of the 5 states, making their cases per M even that more impressive.

Well, at least they can't lead the 5 states in deaths per million.  Or can they?  They can.

AZ's deaths really aren't all that eye popping, but their case count is crazy.  What the heck are they doing ranked 4th in cases per million, when they are surrounded by a bunch of states that are nowhere near the top, and they are below the average in tests per million?  It just doesn't make sense.

AZ shares boarders with those states but not much else. The main population centers, Phoenix and Tucson, aren’t terribly close to population centers of the other states. That semi-isolation made them a good candidate to not get hit hard and they weren’t for the most part.

They became a hotspot because opened before ever reaching a peak or allowing. Other states talk about rolling back phases, they didn’t really do that. It was pretty much a free-for-all with little or unclear restrictions. That and the good weather made them a target destination for freedom seeking individuals especially from So Cal. It was a very predictable recipe for disaster. The best thing was that they didn’t become a hotspot until after the snowbirds left. Imagine thousands of seniors leaving the state and bringing the virus back to all the northwest and Midwest states.

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