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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Doug B
Footballguy
I disagree that it is as pat as all that. Brain chemistry, pleasure centers, serotonin sensitivity, endorphin synthesis, etc. ... the path to a healthy lifestyle is not equally physiologically available to everyone. And that's before we even get into sociological influences upon health.
Doug B
Footballguy
Really no common ground here. No personal issues with you guys, just don't accept your worldview on this particular topic.
culdeus
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
The information in this particular article is thought-provoking (and local!) -- thanks for the link. Actually drill down a bit into the biological mechanisms and doesn't proselytize.
Doug B
Footballguy
Also not an option for everyone. Your life is not their life. My life is not their life. Can't throw covering rules for all people over all kinds of broad realities.
Name your topic -- humans will vary all over the place and their ain't a whole lot anyone can do about it. All humans are significantly flawed somewhere.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I will just say that IMO people's anger is very misplaced if they are more pissed at people with co-morbidities or people showing care and empathy towards those people vs. Joe American who can't be bothered to take precautions or stop throwing parties.
Yes, it is part of the equation. 6mo ago people were saying that the US could be hit harder than some because of our collective health. I think it would be ignorant to suggest that if we step back and look at the world as a whole that we are seeing infections and deaths by multiple factors more solely because of our health. It is how we responding to the virus, or more accurately how we collectively couldn't be bothered to take decent measures for a few weeks.
Yes, it is part of the equation. 6mo ago people were saying that the US could be hit harder than some because of our collective health. I think it would be ignorant to suggest that if we step back and look at the world as a whole that we are seeing infections and deaths by multiple factors more solely because of our health. It is how we responding to the virus, or more accurately how we collectively couldn't be bothered to take decent measures for a few weeks.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I'm not angry at you. And for different reasons, I'm not angry at a fool who has contributed to us being where we are right now. I know you, and others, in here mean well. They don't. So why the lack of reaction? Anger isn't a healthy way to live life. So I don't. Accept that we are a nation of fat, selfish, and stupid. Remove those people from your social circles. Positively influence those that remain. Then decision make accordingly.
You, specifically, can do the right things. But in the grand scheme of things it does not matter. Not in our society today with this particular virus anyway.
Battersbox
Footballguy
In many parts of the country, we did take decent measures for a few weeks. In other parts, we didn't. The virus has returned in both types of places, both in the U.S. and internationally. I don't think even with a Wuhan-style lockdown it would have made a difference over a few weeks.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Yes, but they actually did things right early on once they realized what "right" was and got it significantly under control. They were then able to open up significantly for the last few months. Surely you've seen the curve where we shot back up and their's stayed incredibly low.
So now, when things get bad for them, they can do the same things as before to get it under control and get there easier and faster than we can. And, as a result, will almost assuredly be able to open things back up safely for a second time earlier than us and for a longer time than us.
We're perpetually stuck in this gray zone of semi-closing things down, which sucks, yet not really bringing numbers down, which sucks even more.
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beer 30
Footballguy
Meh, put the cheese steak down and go run a mile (not you specifically Doug).
Says a Brown's fan, you know anger all too well my friend
But you are correct and I've come to realize this more as I approach my mortality. Being angry doesn't help any situation I can think of. I suppose there are some but nothing that impacts us on a daily basis. Doesn't mean I don't still get angry and inject it into situations but I do recognize it a lot more than I have before and on occasion, head it off at the pass. Good advice
gianmarco
Footballguy
Covid skeptic turned survivor now with guilt
As we read more and more of these stories, you'd think people would learn.
Video with him from earlier
As we read more and more of these stories, you'd think people would learn.
Video with him from earlier
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Doug B
Footballguy
It wouldn't have been enough by itself, you're right. You'd also have to have no HIPAA, all cell-phone carriers forced to have a location-tracking app, and insane (for the U.S.) levels of contract tracing. Would also have to remove COVID patients from private residences, sometimes forcibly. National Guardsmen vetting drivers in the streets, telling people -- "Nope -- you went to the grocery three days ago. Go home, or go to the slammer!"
shader
Footballguy
I 100% agree with this. The first few months of this pandemic I sat around and ate a lot and felt sorry for myself a bit. Then at some point I took the bull by the horns, stopped reading so much about it and decided that getting in shape was the best way I could help myself. So I'm at a weight I've only been at once in 20 years and hoping to get down to a level I haven't been to since I was 21. A worldwide push for better health would be a wonderful thing. It wouldn't mean we shouldn't wear masks. Just because I've lost a bunch of weight doesn't mean I now have the right to go out and infect others or that I can live a risky life-style, but I've significantly lowered my risk for when/if I get this thing.
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beer 30
Footballguy
Nope, I agree with that 100% and congratulations on getting after it! That's awesome! I know a lot of folks have taken their personal health seriously during this time and it's great to see. I feel about exercise the same way I do about voting, I don't care how it gets done or who you vote for, just do it. The benefits far outweigh any drawbacks IMO.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Posted in the Halloween thread, but figured I'd include it here as well.
Copied from a post by a former colleague:
Can we safely allow our kids to trick or treat? Halloween is frightening enough this year; but let’s see if we can’t allay some of those fears by looking at data.
The trick: We are completely in the midst of yet another wave of infections. The number of people with positive test results for infection is climbing at an alarming rate. (Notice I am trying to avoid simply calling them “cases” because these are human individuals with a viral disease and I am fighting against dehumanization.) For many months, I have tried to concentrate on hospitalizations and mortality rather than simply looking at infections. The trends, while troubling, are not universally frightening. The number of hospitalizations in Houston has not increased significantly…yet. (www.tmc.edu) Our R number is awful right now which portends a bad storm coming. Yet, I am hopeful. The rate of hospitalizations across the country is climbing, but it remains unclear to me whether it is going up at a lower rate than infections. (https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized) The mortality rate is remaining unchanged. This speaks to how much we have learned about the care of these patients. It also speaks to an infected population that is younger than at the start. All this results in an overall shorter length of hospital stay and a potentially lower ICU admission rate. All of this is very local and cannot be universally applied, but I raise this as a counterbalance point to keep myself and others sane as we hear of hospital systems being overwhelmed. (https://kfoxtv.com/news/coronavirus/county-judge-el-paso-hospitals-and-intensive-care-units-are-at-100-capacity) We all must keep ourselves grounded in true data in the midst of all the competing messages. If you are in a hard-hit county, I am so sorry. Hopefully you are getting the resources you need. It didn’t have to be this way if we actually had a system in place to respond and control. It also didn’t have to be this way if we universally masked. It also doesn’t have to be this way if our entire leadership structure hadn’t surrendered to this virus. Stay motivated and stay safe.
I know, you are probably reading this thinking “I thought this was supposed to ease my mind, not drive me to drink.”
Here are the balancing countermeasures: the treat.
First, vaccine development is really going very well. The paused trials from Oxford/AstraZeneca have resumed. Moderna has completed enrollment and preparing the data to present to the FDA. Biontech/Pfizer is expecting to get approval in Europe as early as mid-November (https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Article/2020/10/16/Pfizer-COVID-19-vaccine-EUA-request-soon-after-safety-data-in-third-week-of-November). I am fully confident that we will have a safe and effective vaccine (if not more than one) at least approved and delivered to at risk populations by the end of the calendar year. Mass vaccinations will available by the spring.
Second, influenza markers have been good so far in the southern hemisphere (where we look for early signs). This fact, mixed with a high flu vaccine rate in the US, gives us hope for avoiding combined pandemics. (You MUST get your flu shot this year! PERIOD!)
Third, there is mounting evidence that the virus has mutated. (“Again, I thought you said this would calm my nerves!”) Historically, we have always known that respiratory viral pathogens mutate for survival. For them to do this, transmission ability or infectivity is more meaningful than severity. It does no good to kill off all your hosts. This means that there is potential that there will be more, but less severe infections. We have seen this already within just the past few months of this pandemic. We are seeing it again. (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2895-3?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=organic&utm_campaign=NGMT_USG_JC01_GL_Nature) (https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201021/SARS-CoV-2-mutations-possibly-making-virus-less-virulent.aspx) I personally believe this is what we are seeing right now as we witness rates skyrocket. We are all exhausted from this pandemic. We are all tired of doing what we know we should do: masks, distance. Nobody is perfect and we all get lazy. However, it is hard for me to imagine that all of Europe has decided to simply not wear masks anymore; yet, their numbers are exploding. I think we are seeing that, as the Nature article above points out, the mutated virus has increased viral loads in the upper respiratory tract, but not the lungs. This means it is easier to shed virus, but less impactful in the form of pneumonia.
Let me be completely clear on a couple of points.
1. It is still bad to get infected. It still increases the risk of bad outcomes. It sucks to be in the hospital. At risk populations are still at risk!
2. This does NOT mean masks are useless. The opposite!!! It means that adherence to masking is even more important now because potentially YOU have a higher viral load and can more easily spread it every single time to drop the mask.
However, maybe we can get through this wave in a better state than previous ones.
Finally, we know more about how the virus is more spread through the air than through surfaces. Additionally, we remain very confident that the younger age groups continue to be “protected”. Pediatric hospital admissions remain low.
Therefore, we come to Halloween. The question that every parent is dealing with this week: do I let my children trick or treat?
As with schools (topic of my next post), this is a complicated question; but not as complicated. This is my opinion only and is based on my personal interpretation of the data. This is not a formal recommendation, but rather an attempt to help you make an informed decision based on your individual family situation with regard to risk.
-Younger children are the one out in costume: lower risk.
-It’s outdoor: lower risk. (see below)
-It’s not going to be spread easily on candy wrappers: lower risk. (see below)
My good friend and insanely smart pediatric scientist was quoted in this article a few weeks ago, it’s worth a read. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2020/09/28/halloween-pandemic/)
I would not recommend a Halloween party of any kind; indoor or outdoor. Groups are still bad. Walking the neighborhood as a family is not only safer, but more meaningful and enjoyable. High school kids should sit this one out. Wait a couple of years and you can go to a costume party with orange and black drinks. Let your younger siblings have some fun this year.
This is what we are doing in our house. We know that while the storm may be brewing in Houston, the city currently still has a low prevalence rate. XXXXX has put 2-3 pieces of candy in individual baggies; no bowl of candy. We will set up a decorated bench on the front lawn and have a couple of baggies out at a time for kids to pick up themselves rather than us handing them out or having everyone dive into a bowl. Finally, we will be sitting over six feet away from that bench with a cocktail in hand saying hi to all our neighbors and trying to be joyful and compassionate.
Copied from a post by a former colleague:
Can we safely allow our kids to trick or treat? Halloween is frightening enough this year; but let’s see if we can’t allay some of those fears by looking at data.
The trick: We are completely in the midst of yet another wave of infections. The number of people with positive test results for infection is climbing at an alarming rate. (Notice I am trying to avoid simply calling them “cases” because these are human individuals with a viral disease and I am fighting against dehumanization.) For many months, I have tried to concentrate on hospitalizations and mortality rather than simply looking at infections. The trends, while troubling, are not universally frightening. The number of hospitalizations in Houston has not increased significantly…yet. (www.tmc.edu) Our R number is awful right now which portends a bad storm coming. Yet, I am hopeful. The rate of hospitalizations across the country is climbing, but it remains unclear to me whether it is going up at a lower rate than infections. (https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized) The mortality rate is remaining unchanged. This speaks to how much we have learned about the care of these patients. It also speaks to an infected population that is younger than at the start. All this results in an overall shorter length of hospital stay and a potentially lower ICU admission rate. All of this is very local and cannot be universally applied, but I raise this as a counterbalance point to keep myself and others sane as we hear of hospital systems being overwhelmed. (https://kfoxtv.com/news/coronavirus/county-judge-el-paso-hospitals-and-intensive-care-units-are-at-100-capacity) We all must keep ourselves grounded in true data in the midst of all the competing messages. If you are in a hard-hit county, I am so sorry. Hopefully you are getting the resources you need. It didn’t have to be this way if we actually had a system in place to respond and control. It also didn’t have to be this way if we universally masked. It also doesn’t have to be this way if our entire leadership structure hadn’t surrendered to this virus. Stay motivated and stay safe.
I know, you are probably reading this thinking “I thought this was supposed to ease my mind, not drive me to drink.”
Here are the balancing countermeasures: the treat.
First, vaccine development is really going very well. The paused trials from Oxford/AstraZeneca have resumed. Moderna has completed enrollment and preparing the data to present to the FDA. Biontech/Pfizer is expecting to get approval in Europe as early as mid-November (https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Article/2020/10/16/Pfizer-COVID-19-vaccine-EUA-request-soon-after-safety-data-in-third-week-of-November). I am fully confident that we will have a safe and effective vaccine (if not more than one) at least approved and delivered to at risk populations by the end of the calendar year. Mass vaccinations will available by the spring.
Second, influenza markers have been good so far in the southern hemisphere (where we look for early signs). This fact, mixed with a high flu vaccine rate in the US, gives us hope for avoiding combined pandemics. (You MUST get your flu shot this year! PERIOD!)
Third, there is mounting evidence that the virus has mutated. (“Again, I thought you said this would calm my nerves!”) Historically, we have always known that respiratory viral pathogens mutate for survival. For them to do this, transmission ability or infectivity is more meaningful than severity. It does no good to kill off all your hosts. This means that there is potential that there will be more, but less severe infections. We have seen this already within just the past few months of this pandemic. We are seeing it again. (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2895-3?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=organic&utm_campaign=NGMT_USG_JC01_GL_Nature) (https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201021/SARS-CoV-2-mutations-possibly-making-virus-less-virulent.aspx) I personally believe this is what we are seeing right now as we witness rates skyrocket. We are all exhausted from this pandemic. We are all tired of doing what we know we should do: masks, distance. Nobody is perfect and we all get lazy. However, it is hard for me to imagine that all of Europe has decided to simply not wear masks anymore; yet, their numbers are exploding. I think we are seeing that, as the Nature article above points out, the mutated virus has increased viral loads in the upper respiratory tract, but not the lungs. This means it is easier to shed virus, but less impactful in the form of pneumonia.
Let me be completely clear on a couple of points.
1. It is still bad to get infected. It still increases the risk of bad outcomes. It sucks to be in the hospital. At risk populations are still at risk!
2. This does NOT mean masks are useless. The opposite!!! It means that adherence to masking is even more important now because potentially YOU have a higher viral load and can more easily spread it every single time to drop the mask.
However, maybe we can get through this wave in a better state than previous ones.
Finally, we know more about how the virus is more spread through the air than through surfaces. Additionally, we remain very confident that the younger age groups continue to be “protected”. Pediatric hospital admissions remain low.
Therefore, we come to Halloween. The question that every parent is dealing with this week: do I let my children trick or treat?
As with schools (topic of my next post), this is a complicated question; but not as complicated. This is my opinion only and is based on my personal interpretation of the data. This is not a formal recommendation, but rather an attempt to help you make an informed decision based on your individual family situation with regard to risk.
-Younger children are the one out in costume: lower risk.
-It’s outdoor: lower risk. (see below)
-It’s not going to be spread easily on candy wrappers: lower risk. (see below)
My good friend and insanely smart pediatric scientist was quoted in this article a few weeks ago, it’s worth a read. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2020/09/28/halloween-pandemic/)
I would not recommend a Halloween party of any kind; indoor or outdoor. Groups are still bad. Walking the neighborhood as a family is not only safer, but more meaningful and enjoyable. High school kids should sit this one out. Wait a couple of years and you can go to a costume party with orange and black drinks. Let your younger siblings have some fun this year.
This is what we are doing in our house. We know that while the storm may be brewing in Houston, the city currently still has a low prevalence rate. XXXXX has put 2-3 pieces of candy in individual baggies; no bowl of candy. We will set up a decorated bench on the front lawn and have a couple of baggies out at a time for kids to pick up themselves rather than us handing them out or having everyone dive into a bowl. Finally, we will be sitting over six feet away from that bench with a cocktail in hand saying hi to all our neighbors and trying to be joyful and compassionate.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Bad assumption. The risk is way higher than flu for older people, including those who are otherwise healthy. Immunologic function wanes as you age, independent of cardiovascular fitness. And even if they do everything “right”, most elderly people have at least one high risk comorbidity - genetics and behavior play a role in just about every disease.
I commend you commitment to exercise, but think you overvalue its protective effect. While some studies suggest up to a decade of added lifespan for those who exercise consistently, many other variables are also in play. And long distance running doesn’t appear to be the best exercise choice, with less longevity benefit than moderate mileage regimens.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
While good choices are certainly important, the abundance of cheap, hypercaloric, nutrient poor processed foods makes meal decisions problematic for those with limited time and financial resources. I’m not letting unhealthy people off the hook, but coupled with inadequate education, it’s easy to understand, and maybe empathize a little with those who end up on the wrong path.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I haven’t kept up on this thread, so apologies if this was already posted. Fauci today outlines that the first vaccines will not prevent people from catching the virus. They will help prevent the symptoms that people get and make it easier to treat them. The vaccine won’t kill the virus. LINK
My question to the doctors in the house is whether that would require the same two weeks of quarantine if someone vaccinated caught it and could they still spread it? Along those lines, would others that were vaccinated be just as likely to still catch it as now? At that point it sounds like the hope is to limit the severity of symptoms when people get it. And if the vaccine doesn’t have the desired effect on some people then they will be in the same situation as now
My question to the doctors in the house is whether that would require the same two weeks of quarantine if someone vaccinated caught it and could they still spread it? Along those lines, would others that were vaccinated be just as likely to still catch it as now? At that point it sounds like the hope is to limit the severity of symptoms when people get it. And if the vaccine doesn’t have the desired effect on some people then they will be in the same situation as now
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
What constitutes a “large margin”? The mortality rate for the US is roughly 50X that of Japan...yet they seem to be taking it more seriously.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
It's about priorities. Limited time is just code for saying I'm not making my health a priority. There is a reason I said most though. Unfortunately not everyone has access to good, cheap, healthy food. I dont sympathize for those who say they lack time, but I do with those who have financial/accessibility constraints.
Lack of education is a can of worms probably best addressed in another thread. I bet we are in agreement there though. It not being a bigger talking point in this environment is how today's tangent started in the first place.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I get what you are saying, and I try my best. I am not walking around like Otis triggered 24/7.
That said, I will be honest and admit my faults - I get pissed when I see people come into the store without a mask giving 0 ####s, and chances are those people are not caring about our safe distance guidelines. This has nothing to do with my social circle - that is basically nothing. Like I said above, I think it's a mentality of not caring about people around you and after 6months and WI climbing yet again, I am done. Combine that with having to deal with my 5 year old who is miserable all day because she hates online school - to the point where she cries near daily. So yeah - my anger is not a lifestyle, but it is increasing month after month and it's directed not at the people who for whatever reason I can't be certain of have comorbidities, it's directed at the people who can't be bothered to act in a way that helps keep this at bay and will help us all get back to our lives quicker. Like somebody pointed out in the PSF - these are also the same people who seem to whine the most that stuff isn't open.
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Yes, this is a great point. While I wish this was talked about more in general, this is also about protecting yourself more, not really what we are talking about. Being healthy is not going help you not spread this virus to other people any less. It is a factor in why our death rate is higher I am sure, but it's not as though we aren't seeing this spread throughout football team, baseball teams, etc.. Dudes that are 100x more in shape than I am.
GoBirds
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
We have kids aged 10, 8, and 4. I get it. These 7+ months have been hard and there is no end in sight. But...adapt or die. Rather than negatively expend your energy on why this sucks (it does) be creative finding positive outlets, especially ones that engage your child.
Control what you can control.. We have no control over the dumb. They are dumb no matter if you expend all of or zero energy on them. We can only control ourselves and influence those around us.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
We will just have to agree to disagree. I would be on board with this if I truly believed we did the best we could or we are doing the best we can currently. I am currently not willing to let my emotions go as we are staring at doing this for 1 year or more and people are just shrugging their shoulders about it. It didn't have to be this way.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Great questions. Would love to hear answers from any true experts. Have texted my BIL, whose best friend is an expert in infectious disease. Will gladly share his reply when I receive it. Interested in any other perspectives.
Note: assuming that once vaccinated in the linked scenario, folks will have to quarantine.
Don't use the laughing emoji to reply to posts where someone is struggling.
Don't get on the same level accusing people that do that.
Don't get on the same level accusing people that do that.
AndrewClark
Footballguy
Best wishes man. My cousin (basically brother) and his wife and 2 kids all got tested last week. Both of them are teachers. They were at a birthday gathering where someone tested positive.
So both teachers and both students have been out of school for 14 days.
I don't envy you guys with children during this. So I'm eternally wishing you the best outcome.
culdeus
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Maybe more of an accumulation of evidence (and lack of science) that producing a safe and effective vaccine in 9 months isn't likely based on past experience. When remediesivir gets approved and the science isn't behind it I'm not holding out hope that a vaccine will be better.
Dezbelief
Footballguy
AndrewClark
Footballguy
Just personal anecdote.
My girlfriend tested Monday and got a negative today (just moments ago).
She has to go home to Pittsburgh this weekend to be with her mother who is dying of cancer. Her test was done in 20 mins and she didn't want to fly and put others or her mother at risk without a test. The results took 2 days (not 3 to 4)
Testing isn't scary. Just wanted to point that out as the holidays approach.
My girlfriend tested Monday and got a negative today (just moments ago).
She has to go home to Pittsburgh this weekend to be with her mother who is dying of cancer. Her test was done in 20 mins and she didn't want to fly and put others or her mother at risk without a test. The results took 2 days (not 3 to 4)
Testing isn't scary. Just wanted to point that out as the holidays approach.
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Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
My son has been tested twice due to exposures at school. The test was no problem. The results for both took a bit more than 3 days.
culdeus
Footballguy
Wasn't the most fun experience, saying I get results back likely end of tomorrow which is fine. Opted against the rapid test as the school doesn't accept that anyways.
Jackstraw
Footballguy
Not to knock personal responsibility at all but we have so much public policy that directly leads to widespread negative outcomes. We subsidize wheat, sugar and red meat. It's cheaper to buy a Mcdouble than a decent size tomato. Personal responsibility yes but lets clear the way with decent public policy.shader said:
PS I've dropped about 25 lbs since the before times.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
1385 hospigalizations in WI now. 5200 new cases. 65 deaths. All records.
Mookie
Footballguy
I had mild case of COVID back in March. Tested positive for antibodies in May. Had a health screening put on at my work in Mid October, including an antibody test, and I tested positive for antibodies again. Cool, I guess. Still don't know what it means or the significance of it, other than confirming that I had an uncounted case of COVID. Funny thing is that no one in my family or work circle got it, so I've been crowing about how I saved all of their lives. Still wearing a mask, washing hands, and social distancing.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I am so torn. With all this going on, and us seemingly getting an email a week about a positive case at the school district we are in (despite there being no live school), we just got an email from our son's basketball coach that the board voted to have a winter season and they are going to start that up with some COVID protocols in place.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Positive thoughts your way - how old is your kid? How did she handle the test?culdeus said:
culdeus
Footballguy
They said it was like a wierd tickle. Got both of them done so they can both go back.
One thing I found interesting was they did them once then let them sneeze like crazy, then did it again. I told them it was a one shot deal, but apparently two is better in some way. So that wasn't my ticket to popularity
