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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
culdeus
Footballguy
You need the placebo group there so people carry on their regular lives without thinking they are now immune.
It's also double-blind, so participants and staff don't know who receives the active vaccine and who receives placebo, until after the study is over. That minimizes bias.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
I just meant in the immediate future. I was talking more if it came back positive then what you're figuring to do it at least a couple more times. But sure, anything can happen.
The_Man
Footballguy
I work at Johns Hopkins, one of the doctors I know said today that an entire floor of the hospital has been converted to COVID treatment and they're on the verge of suspending all non-critical procedures again to maintain capacity they need to treat all the COVID patients. And Maryland had been a state that was doing well until a couple weeks ago
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
How do you know?
Not a first responder, but I’m very happy with the prospects of getting vaccinated soon.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Co-worker's husband personally told me. Said it would probably be get vaccinated or hit the highway. He's not happy about it and said many other feel like he does.
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Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
I am seeing the other extreme. I work with first responders who have said they hope to be able to get the vaccine in December. They have no problem getting it.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
After sufficient data to determine efficacy is collected, the median 6 month follow up for SAEs is the most important limitation. Although we’re unlikely to have many RCT before the vaccine is released, at least Pfizer is enrolling at lot of participants, ~22k per their protocol, which is more than 3x the average for other licensed vaccines in your link.
Willy
Footballguy
That does sound like a serious logistics problem, even for developed countries. The other thing is its a 2 dose, 28 days apart vaccine, so you really aren't out of the woods until a month or so after your fist dose. I haven't really paid attention to the others, but are they all multi-dose over a few weeks? I mean maybe we'll end up with better options.
Derek Lowe's blog mentions he expects all the vaccines to have similar efficacy since they are all targeting the same spike protein.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/09/vaccine-efficacy-data
The Commish
Footballguy
@Capella
I went looking for answers on this last night after my scientist wife said she had no idea how it works. Result? I still have no clue. Best I can tell is that they just give you the vaccine and tell you to be on your merry way. I have ZERO idea how they determine efficacy of the vaccine with literally dozens of other variables that could be different in every single person. This seems to be a causation vs correlation issue of epic proportions.
There are some that are single dose and/or at a reasonable storage temp like -4. Those are the ones that will likely be mass distributed like a flu shot.
Another worry I have about the promising news is that it’s going to get people even more complacent about masks and social distancing. They need to play this right with clear messaging about when and who it will be available to and the importance of still doing everything else.
It’s a big problem with vaccines. Antibody testing can show that the vaccine created the forces to fight COVID but it’s hard to prove that they do what they’re expected to. I believe some of the trials have involved exposing participants to COVID to determine the effectiveness.
Are you trying to say that with a trial of 44k where they picked people who would be more likely to catch the virus isn’t going to show effectiveness? I think you are thinking way too much. Statistics are used to take the fact that 85 or more people were infected from half the folks (placebo group) and 9 or less people were infected from half the folks (vaccine group). That’s enough to give you an effectiveness rating because it’s statistically significant.
You can go crazy trying to analyze every case but that’s why you get a randomized trial with so many people so all your variables aren’t going to affect the outcome. The results were conclusive enough based on the size of the trial, that’s it. I don’t mean to be a bit of a #### here but do you really think you’re coming up with some new thought that these scientists and folks who run these types of trials haven’t? There’s no causation vs correlation issue here.
The Commish
Footballguy
Now THIS would make more sense, but wow...people signing up for that? I think I'd pass.
I have a hard time believing that any trial is exposing anyone directly to COVID. If so, what’s the point of such a large trial? That’s why the trial is 44k people so they can let them go into the wild not knowing if they got the placebo or vaccine and see how many people contract the virus. That’s why they need to get to a specific number of cases so they can see if they get a result that is statistically significant. That’s how all randomized trials work. Success or failure is based on the results being statistically significant. If 60% of the placebo folks got it and 40% of the vaccine got it then I don’t think that it’s 60% effective because 50/50 is basically 0% effective. 0% means it didn’t matter if you got the vaccine at all.
culdeus
Footballguy
So next Wednesday I'm going in to get a blood draw, and a test.
This is to determine eligibility for a vaccine trial. They specifically wanted people that were WFH involved in this, with people in the household which were not WFH, so I signed up.
I'm not sure what the blood draw will give them (antibodies?) but I'll see where this goes.
This is to determine eligibility for a vaccine trial. They specifically wanted people that were WFH involved in this, with people in the household which were not WFH, so I signed up.
I'm not sure what the blood draw will give them (antibodies?) but I'll see where this goes.
The Commish
Footballguy
No....I'm saying I don't know how it works as it pertains to efficacy attributed DIRECTLY to the vaccine. I'm asking questions to understand. I've made no claims and I have only said it appears to be an issue and that's most likely because of my lack of understanding. I just want to understand how it works and how they attribute success to the vaccine while dismissing the other variables. This is a thought exercise for me as I've never really thought about it before and when my wife said she didn't know I wanted to understand even more. So I'm here to be educated on why there is no causation/correlation issue here and why a placebo is even needed if they aren't introducing the participants to the virus straight up.
If a vaccine is one of dozens of variable they make no attempt to keep constant (some people go about day to day life and are out and about, some people are holed up in their houses, some wear masks religiously, some wash hand religiously, some don't do any of that...on and on and on) I can see a claim like "Taking this drug plus using precautions XYZ we think the average person has X% chance of not catching this virus".
They specifically enlisted people who were higher risk. Go look at the articles on the trial. If everyone is WFH and holed up then they wouldn’t get enough cases. That’s the key that I think you are missing. There is no magic bullet against this virus, so all those variables you think are important come down to one variable. Placebo or Vaccine. To determine effectiveness they need to get to a large enough number of cases. Doesn’t matter if they are holed up or wearing masks. You get 44k high risk people so that doesn’t matter. If you get enough cases then you can see if there are enough people who get it from the placebo group that it shows that the 22k people with the vaccine are safer with the vaccine. It’s really that simple. If you get enough cases you can determine if the vaccine is effective. That’s why they chose only high risk folks who were more likely become cases.
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Which one? I’m one of those get me the vaccine as soon as possible if approved and deemed safe/effective after the full trial. The Pfizer trial isn’t even done. They just hit an interim case amount to deliver preliminary results. They only need another 70ish cases so not a ton more.
culdeus
Footballguy
They did not say. I had to pass a question screening, then this screening to determine eligibility. I'm getting 50 bucks to get a free covid test and an antibody test as it is. There's no obligation to do the vaccine study at this point from my end and it isn't clear I'd be selected even if negative with 0 antibodies.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
We were forced to close on March 20th. There were 120 total cases in Florida on that day. Now we have 5,000 a day and nobody blinks. I was in St. Augustine over the weekend and the downtown area was slammed.
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
My 17yo daughter (and aspiring nursing student) got a job serving food in a nursing home about 3 months ago. It's her first "real job" and we figured it was a good opportunity to make sure this is really what she wants to do before going to college. She works in the Alzheimer's unit. I've never seen her so engaged and passionate about something so meaningful. She comes every night with endless stories (mostly sad, but not always) and she's become quite attached to several of the residents. Two weeks ago, the facility had its first positive case. Last week, they climbed to 14 cases, and my daughter's floor had their first case. This week, there are over 50 cases total (2 have died) and her floor has at least 10. Its a full blown outbreak that's making the news. In the past 2 weeks, she has gone from just wearing a face mask, to wearing full PPE (N95, face shield, gown). This will be her first night back since the outbreak last week and she's terrified. Not because she's afraid of catching the virus, but because she's afraid to find out which of her residents have caught COVID. It's heartbreaking watching this unfold, but Ive never been so proud of her in my life. 
culdeus
Footballguy
People keep saying this, but I think it's a forest/trees thing. In March we thought we had a chance to completely eliminate the virus by shutting down.
Now, it's clear we can't do this short of a vaccine that is effective, so there is no point for some activities to not continue.
Where hospitals cross some threshold in an area, close down dining and bars. And hope for the best.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I'm not advocating a shut down---but shut downs when done properly absolutely do work. Australia did a true shut down of close to 100 days and basically completely eradicated the virus. China did the same thing---and it did work. The reason why shut downs have not and will not work here is that our idea of a shut down is not a true "shut down". Even when the pandemic was blowing up in New York City--planes were still allowed to fly in and out of there with no real oversight or intervention. Nothing was stopping people from areas of high infection to going to areas of low infection and bringing the disease with them. Overcoming this virus has proven to be successful when you have an organized, disciplined, and capable government doing a good job in getting their respective populations to comply with their organized and disciplined plans. Our government has not been organized, disciplined or capable---and half of our population refuses to comply with simple tasks/habits that would greatly help the cause. My only point is this--covid is conquerable and controllable without a vaccine (it's been proven by Taiwan, Australia, china and others). We as a nation are just acting in self destructive ways and are allowing it to run rampant--and then are trying to convince ourselves that it's not controllable.
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Maggot Brain
Footballguy
ropsMic: 
the rover
Footballguy
That middle sentence defies logic, but is unfortunately what a lot of people think and act on, which will keep us in limbo for years, even with a vaccine. Actions have consequences. “There is no point for some activities not to continue” is a selfish and short-sighted way to look at things.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Not particularly. When dining it's basically wear it as you come in and/or if you get up to use the restroom. The size of the crowds in the main downtown area were striking. My wife and I both simultaneously turned to each other with a similar, "If we're going to get this, it'll be from here" comment.
Doug B
Footballguy
COVID 'super-spreader' wedding that infected 34 costs country club its liquor license (ABC News, 11/10/2020)
The Oct. 17 wedding on Long Island, New York, included 113 guests.
The Oct. 17 wedding on Long Island, New York, included 113 guests.
When it comes to masks especially in places like the grocery, I see it more of a personal indication of caring. They are probably not at that much higher risk in a grocery store but not wearing a mask where it is clearly required is a good indicator that you’re not taking other precautions. We can mask mandate everywhere but if we don’t change the attitudes they will continue behavior riskier than not wearing a mask to the store. Unfortunately I think some are way past changing their attitude.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
More than 140,000 new cases in the US today. Jebus.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Those are just reported confirmed cases. Scott Gottlieb believes that in reality--for every reported case there are probably 6-7 cases that are not reported where people are just asymptomatic or are isolating at home without the confirmation of a test. In reality--there probably are 700-800k new infections today. To put that in perspective--that's a number that is similar to the entire populations of cities like Denver or Seattle--just in one day.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
God bless her for doing a job that requires helping people that are unable to take care of themselves. The fact that she's connected with some of the residents is so cool because so many residents of nursing home feel abondoned and alienated. While those connections mean a lot to her--I assure you that they probably mean exponentially more to the people that she's helping.E-Z Glider said:My 17yo daughter (and aspiring nursing student) got a job serving food in a nursing home about 3 months ago. It's her first "real job" and we figured it was a good opportunity to make sure this is really what she wants to do before going to college. She works in the Alzheimer's unit. I've never seen her so engaged and passionate about something so meaningful. She comes every night with endless stories (mostly sad, but not always) and she's become quite attached to several of the residents. Two weeks ago, the facility had its first positive case. Last week, they climbed to 14 cases, and my daughter's floor had their first case. This week, there are over 50 cases total (2 have died) and her floor has at least 10. Its a full blown outbreak that's making the news. In the past 2 weeks, she has gone from just wearing a face mask, to wearing full PPE (N95, face shield, gown). This will be her first night back since the outbreak last week and she's terrified. Not because she's afraid of catching the virus, but because she's afraid to find out which of her residents have caught COVID. It's heartbreaking watching this unfold, but Ive never been so proud of her in my life.
With that said--even though she's 17 and strong--it's very important that she's beyond careful going back to work. Studies have shown that the viral load that one is exposed to plays a significant role in how severe a case of covid they get--if they get it. I would make sure that she's not only in full PPE--and not just surgical masks--legit 3m N95 masks, face shields, full covering over her clothing. I'd also recommend that she stays hydrated, gets 7-8 hours of sleep every night, and make sure she's ample in vitamins that keep her immune system strong (vitamins C, vitamin D, and zinc). I'd also recommend that when she comes home to use a side/back entrance and to not bring any of her work clothes inside of the house and to shower immediately. A family friend of mine has an 18 year old daughter that just had a 34 day long battle with covid. She made it through but it still feeling fatigue and gets horrid headaches from time to time.
If she doesn't have access to N-95 masks--feel free to Pm me and I'd be happy to ship you a few.
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the rover
Footballguy
Unfortunately they’re going to have decisions made for them, like online schools and shutting down bars and restaurants. Then they’re going to complain that their freedom to make selfish and destructive decisions is being taken away.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
...and just shy of 1,500 deaths. In one day! Ugh.
Worldwide, 618,000 cases (we only crossed the 400K mark four weeks ago) and almost 10,200 deaths (where four weeks ago, the numbers were around 6K+). 58 countries reporting over 1,000 new cases. Truly a life or death struggle to see if we can get a vaccine developed - and then produced - in time to halt this before it becomes totally unmanageable.
beer 30
Footballguy
It wasn't too many months ago there were some projecting a 9/11 death count almost daily and how it would at some point just become acceptable. Not there yet but a couple day total gets you close and does anyone outside of this thread notice much? Not trying to be trite but there was a time when 1,500 deaths a day would have moved the needle, that's 10k a week and I don't get the sense that the country is really up in arms about it. I'm not in a high infection area so probably has a lot to do with it and SC is wide open so daily life, while impacted, doesn't have a lot of restrictions but still. That's a #### ton of people every day.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Expect a 4-6 week "shut down" nationally in January is my guess. They were talking 300,000 cases per day by February at the current rate with over 2000 deaths along side per day as well. Mask up and stock up.
The Pfizer vaccine storage temperature is going to be a potential issue. I expect we will have military distributions like they did with polio in the 50s. With the different vaccines out there, some taking tons of Warp Speed money, and different number of doses, mRNA vs other methods etc., how will we know which vaccine is available to us and can we have a choice?
The Pfizer vaccine storage temperature is going to be a potential issue. I expect we will have military distributions like they did with polio in the 50s. With the different vaccines out there, some taking tons of Warp Speed money, and different number of doses, mRNA vs other methods etc., how will we know which vaccine is available to us and can we have a choice?
jamny
Footballguy
Just crazy. There will still need to be essential workers. It will just come back once they re-open and we will be entering a depression.
Group events are driving the resurgence.
How ‘Superspreading’ Events Drive Most COVID-19 Spread: As few as 10 percent of infected people may drive a whopping 80 percent of cases in specific types of situations
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soothsayer
Footballguy
A good friend of mine lives in Nebraska and someone he knows recently died of COVID in a small town. The older gentleman was a long-time bartender at the townie bar that never enforced mask use. The locals plan to memorialize him this coming weekend - with an all-day reception at the bar, complete with drink specials and a potluck. There won't be a mask in sight.
This is consistent with what I keep hearing about small towns in Nebraska and what I've personally seen in rural Minnesota and Iowa. Very little mask use and businesses not caring about any rules (if they exist at all). How can we possibly expect to make any progress?
This is consistent with what I keep hearing about small towns in Nebraska and what I've personally seen in rural Minnesota and Iowa. Very little mask use and businesses not caring about any rules (if they exist at all). How can we possibly expect to make any progress?
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JaxBill
Footballguy
Actually 112 days and the costs were not only financial. Higher mental health requests, domestic violence, drug abuse and suicide.jvdesigns2002 said:
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
mr roboto
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I was exposed to Covid thru a potential worker who did not disclose he had tested positive, he announced thru FB(18 yr old idiot) and so I found out even later than others but went immediately to get tested, chances were low, I had no symptoms but I was feeling light headed and likely was having internal tug of war about whether to be really upset or just roll with it and stay calm, I opted for the 2nd. I didn't run in here and tell everyone, but I did quarantine and sent my wife away for a couple more days as she was returning from a family wedding.
I had the nasal swab, not pleasant but not the worst thing either. Couple days and I got my results back NEGATIVE!!!
My first thought is now that I know 100% I don't have it, I want to keep it that way and I bet many felt the same. It's not an empowerment to want to go out and get close and cozy to strangers just because I can't pass it at the moment. Quite the opposite in fact, occasionally I've thought "I probably got this thing back in Feb/March" and you take risks you shouldn't. Even if you have gotten Covid, I was told point blank when I was in there that 90-180 days tops and then you can get it again, that was not very reassuring.
I play Tennis with a lot of people who get up there in age and I wanted to make sure I could feel safe with everyone before the weekend, this certainly helps. I expect things to stop for a while again at some point, might be a couple more months but I can feel a lockdown coming and I want to enjoy what I can before we are ordered inside.
I encourage everyone who has the least bit of doubt in their mind and have the means to get tested, just do it. Again I wouldn't get the family all tested and then have have 23 people over for Thanksgiving, that's not where I'm going with this. But you might want to have peace of mind or it might give you the strength to do the right thing and protect yourself when you are are out and about.
I would complain about how folks are not respecting others with masks and social distancing here in Florida BUT...all those issues are solved if MOP just stays home and stays away from everyone
I had the nasal swab, not pleasant but not the worst thing either. Couple days and I got my results back NEGATIVE!!!
My first thought is now that I know 100% I don't have it, I want to keep it that way and I bet many felt the same. It's not an empowerment to want to go out and get close and cozy to strangers just because I can't pass it at the moment. Quite the opposite in fact, occasionally I've thought "I probably got this thing back in Feb/March" and you take risks you shouldn't. Even if you have gotten Covid, I was told point blank when I was in there that 90-180 days tops and then you can get it again, that was not very reassuring.
I play Tennis with a lot of people who get up there in age and I wanted to make sure I could feel safe with everyone before the weekend, this certainly helps. I expect things to stop for a while again at some point, might be a couple more months but I can feel a lockdown coming and I want to enjoy what I can before we are ordered inside.
I encourage everyone who has the least bit of doubt in their mind and have the means to get tested, just do it. Again I wouldn't get the family all tested and then have have 23 people over for Thanksgiving, that's not where I'm going with this. But you might want to have peace of mind or it might give you the strength to do the right thing and protect yourself when you are are out and about.
I would complain about how folks are not respecting others with masks and social distancing here in Florida BUT...all those issues are solved if MOP just stays home and stays away from everyone
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'm sure everyone has discussed this ad nauseum but...20% of Grocery Workers across the country have tested positive for the Coronavirus and obviously not all at once but it shows the place where the risk is greatest. Not surprisingly the next two were restaurants with dine in and get this, gyms?!
These 3 seems like pretty obvious and magnets for people. Somehow though, malls were not ranked high at all. I think that's because they are mostly empty right now.
I understand why folks want to go to their gyms, same as I like to play on my Courts, difference is I have copious amounts of fresh air and can socially distance pretty well, gyms are mostly indoors. Up North in the Winter it's gotta be rough with no place to go work out, running or cycling outside isn't really an option in Jan/Feb.
These 3 seems like pretty obvious and magnets for people. Somehow though, malls were not ranked high at all. I think that's because they are mostly empty right now.
I understand why folks want to go to their gyms, same as I like to play on my Courts, difference is I have copious amounts of fresh air and can socially distance pretty well, gyms are mostly indoors. Up North in the Winter it's gotta be rough with no place to go work out, running or cycling outside isn't really an option in Jan/Feb.
