culdeus
Footballguy
I mean at one point their caseload plotted to a perfect polynomial for 40 days in a row. Anyone with a regstat kit for excel was flagging that.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Ron Swanson
Footballguy
Navin Johnson
Footballguy
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
I believed the WHO, not China. The WHO is not China. China is not the WHO.Not to pile on ... but I think he might be referring to the February WHO report based on their investigations in China. I don't know one way or another whether that particular report is still relevant anymore -- seems like researchers in other countries now have more than enough homegrown data to come to their own conclusions.
Just an aside: It seems to be rarely talked about ... but can it truly be that a country as large as China pretty much has had only a few thousand COVID cases in the last 9 months? That beggars belief. But you can't prove a negative, so
In retrospect, I think we’ve all lost a lot of respect for many of the large health organizations. I know I have, and I was definitely wrong to put so much faith in the WHO early on. Lesson learned.
jamny
Footballguy
How long were they able to look back before? I thought I had covid in April but my blood test in August came out negative for antibodies. New ones look back further?
Antibody test? I’m pretty sure you can. Several blood banks have been doing free antibody testing for anyone who donates blood.
Shaft41
Footballguy
My 18 year old daughter tested positive Monday. My middle daughter had cold symptoms all weekend, and then my oldest said Sunday she felt kind of "bleh." So we got them tested on Monday, and were pretty surprised when she tested positive. What's weird is how the quaratine works. At our school, my daughter who tested positive can go back after 10 days if she feels fine (So far, she has cough, congestion and started a fever tonight). We have 5 kids and don't have a big enough house to really keep her isolated for those 10 days. I mean, she's an 18 year old girl, so she spends most of her time in her room anyway, but we're all still going to have contact with her. My wife teaches at the school where our kids go, and the school is requiring the other kids and my wife to quarantine for the 10 days and then an additional 14. Unless they were to test positive, and then they could come back 10 days after symptoms started. My school where I teach is just having me quarantine for 14 days. Who knows.
shader
Footballguy
Of course you can
https://questdirect.questdiagnostics.com/products/covid-19-immune-response/b580e541-78a5-48a6-b17b-7bad949dcb57
119 bucks through Quest, as one example.
My health insurance will actually pay for an antibody test so it's free of charge.
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culdeus
Footballguy
Yes. They have some that have no endpoints yet. Not sure how widely available they are. They are using these for some vax trials for eligibility. I had to have one. The documents said basically they look back more or less to the big bang.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Nanny tested negative for antibodies. That was a close one. Hopefully she'll be back next week.
We had told her that we'd pay her the full wages this week although she only worked one day, and we'd pay her 50% while she was recovering. Not sure if that is fair or not...
We had told her that we'd pay her the full wages this week although she only worked one day, and we'd pay her 50% while she was recovering. Not sure if that is fair or not...
gianmarco
Footballguy
chet
Footballguy
Navin Johnson
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Roughly one third of symptomatic covid patients become long haulers (symptoms 2+ weeks).Nathan R. Jessep said:
It happens in other (usually viral) infections, too, including the flu. But protracted symptoms aren’t nearly as common in other infections, and certain manifestations (blood clots, including strokes; lung, kidney and heart scarring, etc.) may be unique to covid.
Jackstraw
Footballguy
The Flying Turtle
Footballguy
If I am reading this correctly, the couple took a test at the airport and it came back positive (not explicitly stated in the article) so they were sent to quarantine and told not to travel. So how did they get out of quarantine and how were they allowed to board? It seems like their boarding pass should have been flagged. Maybe the test is administered by the airport and doesn't link to the airlines?
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Funny how science works.I'm not sure what you are referring to about the "lied to" part, but I do distinctly recall the early reporting (March-April time frame) of the studies of all the lab samples, etc., proving that, based on the samples studied AT THAT TIME, that there were zero indicators of Covid being present prior to January (I think it was January at the time, I could be mistaken on that). That wasn't lies. It was factual information based on what they had at the time. They've studied more samples, yielding new timeline-altering data now.
I think there are a lot of people who suspected that covid was here earlier and masking as flu. Didn't we have a "bad flu season" and more "flu" related deaths than normal as well this year?
ChiefD
Footballguy
My son's school had about 30 kids diagnosed with pneumonia back in January if I remember - my son being one of them. I thought it was odd at the time, but didn't think much more about it.
Until March of course. The rest of our house had a rough January in terms of colds, coughing, etc....which would be normal for that time of year. But heck, who knows. I know for me since that period in January I've had a really hard time myself with fatigue, higher heart rate when running...stuff like that. Just not feeling right.
But I'm also getting older, so who the heck knows.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Yea, I came down with the "flu" on February 28 and was knocked out and in bed for a week. Chills, sore throat, headache, stomach issues, TIRED, and a fever that lasted the entire time but never above 101. I had an anti-body test in May that was negative though, but I am not sure how accurate those were back then.
culdeus
Footballguy
As has been said roughly every 40 pages when the Q anon nutjobs show up the "Flu A" had symptoms this year which were in many ways similar to Covid, most notably the dry cough and long duration of illness and fatigue. This has given rise to a number of people (myself included for a time) thinking they were exposed and recovered. Odds are we are looking at perhaps a couple hundred of infections prior to Feb. Maybe even a couple dozen.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Just understand a few things:
1) December/January/February are peak flu months. We see a LOT of it and this past year was particularly high prevalence. So, when you consider the thousands upon thousands of people that actually had the flu, most of them are going to look back and go "wow, this could have been Covid". But, more than likely, it was the flu.
2) Along with #1, just because Covid now seems to have been found back in December, it most definitely wasn't very common or widely circulating. There is no question about what we are seeing now. We weren't seeing that in January and February. So there may have been a "handful" of cases where it started, but there's no way it was anywhere near as common as the flu as our hospitals would have seen the clinical symptoms we see now which are very different than typical flu.
In other words, if you were sick back in January and even February, it was very likely the flu and not Covid unless you had the typical symptoms we are now seeing with Covid (i.e. loss of taste and smell).
coopersdad
Footballguy
Our situation is sort of similar.
Future daughter in law plays D1 softball. She was in Louisiana traveling with her team when March 9 hit. After a couple of days they returned to college town. Her and my son (HS baseball coach whose school went virtual) stayed at her place for 2 weeks. Son said he went through an emergency Asthma inhaler in 2 weeks that usually takes a month and a half. Girlfriend came down with the worst hacking cough immaginable and couldn't sleep. Didn't feel right for about a month. They came back to my place and stayed off/on all summer. In early May I started wheezing at night when I laid down for bed. Stopped in about a month. Youngest son has never had any symptoms even though he traveled to multiple states for baseball all summer. Currently I notice that I'm shorter of breath when working out than I used to be (but then again my level of activity is about 25% of what it used to be).
We all are still really careful, but we do go out to eat and see family.
Both boys are back in school (coaching and studying) as they chose not to do virtual this fall due to the fact that we all think that they have had it.
Future daughter in law plays D1 softball. She was in Louisiana traveling with her team when March 9 hit. After a couple of days they returned to college town. Her and my son (HS baseball coach whose school went virtual) stayed at her place for 2 weeks. Son said he went through an emergency Asthma inhaler in 2 weeks that usually takes a month and a half. Girlfriend came down with the worst hacking cough immaginable and couldn't sleep. Didn't feel right for about a month. They came back to my place and stayed off/on all summer. In early May I started wheezing at night when I laid down for bed. Stopped in about a month. Youngest son has never had any symptoms even though he traveled to multiple states for baseball all summer. Currently I notice that I'm shorter of breath when working out than I used to be (but then again my level of activity is about 25% of what it used to be).
We all are still really careful, but we do go out to eat and see family.
Both boys are back in school (coaching and studying) as they chose not to do virtual this fall due to the fact that we all think that they have had it.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
That sounds like the flu. Influenza tends to knock people on their ###. For some reason folks think the flu is like the common cold, which is absolutely not the case.
If you had flu-like symptoms back in February or before, it is overwhelmingly likely that you just had the flu.
culdeus
Footballguy
Furthermore, it's entirely possible that it came to the US and expired, then came a second time or third and perhaps didn't really take hold in force until 2/6-2/14 Schengen flights into JFK out of primarily 4 flights out of FCO, then follow up flights from all over Schengen that went on another 6 weeks well after the virus was raging there which we allowed for who knows what reason.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Probably. Was just interesting timing. I was out of work for a week+, went back for two days, and then the world shut down.
Doug B
Footballguy
A lot of people use "the flu" colloquially to mean "a severe cold, especially with extra symptoms such as a sore throat". Over-the-counter cold-and-cough medicines are commonly marketed that way (e.g. Alka Seltzer Product1 opposed to Product2).
Doug B
Footballguy
This makes a ton of sense -- remember how it was found the New York outbreak in Feb-March was not the first-identified Wuhan strain, but another one altogether that had run rampant in Europe?
top dog
Footballguy
I wonder how many people look at the idea that it was here earlier than we initially thought as a way to validate the idea that the media has over hyped COVID and it really is "Just a flu". I honestly don't know if that is some people's thought process, but it did cross my mind as I sat here and thought about why it would matter to some people. Even when they announced the first case in the USA I was sure it was here before we thought. It is highly unlikely that the very first case was the one we caught. As the pandemic has gone on and one we find that it was around earlier than we thought. Which makes 100% sense to me as we didn't know what we were looking at until it grew to something that was a definite pattern.
top dog
Footballguy
I know people that have said to me "I get the flu every year." No... You may get sick every year, but most likely you are not getting "the flu" every year. I think I have had the flu only a handful of times in my 46 years. Having a fever or sore throat <> flu.
culdeus
Footballguy
Yes, the primary strain that ravaged Italy (Actually formed in Germany) was more lethal than the one that came to WA from China though that is hard to pin down as the treatment was not as good when the Italy strain was dominating NY/NJ.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
The primary strain that made it to America was the "20A" which quickly changed to the B and then C, now we are dealing mostly with "C" but I don't actually see the Delta strain reflected in this work yet but my understanding is there is a dominant D strain circulating now. Each of these have gotten progressively weaker in mortality, but this might be due to treatments.
The 19A strain that hit China hard was in fact mostly isolated to China and spread and died out in the US (due to shutdowns) but still lives on in Africa.
In fact, you can say that the dominant strains that were created in Germany/Italy came to the US then went BACK to China. Caveats galore when looking at this, as it depends wholly on them sampling people that happened to catch a mutation.
jamny
Footballguy
Very true. I had the flu last summer and it took weeks to get back to normal and even that didn't compare to the flu I had about 15 years ago. That was the first time I realized how easily an old person could die from it. I've never had anything close to that.
I am 100% convinced this was here earlier than noted. Nobody here is going to convince me otherwise. So many people had similar issues.
Youngest daughter and wife were sick in January. Daughter went to doctor and was told NOT the flu.
Just so happens the same daughter and my wife tested positive on November 3rd. Wife had very mild headache for a day. Daughter never skipped a beat.
Youngest daughter and wife were sick in January. Daughter went to doctor and was told NOT the flu.
Just so happens the same daughter and my wife tested positive on November 3rd. Wife had very mild headache for a day. Daughter never skipped a beat.
MTskibum
Footballguy
The flu can be extremely mild and is asymptomatic in almost half of the cases. Someone can have the flu with just a mild fever or sore throat.
The only way to know for sure is the flu test.
MTskibum
Footballguy
Unless you had a flu test it may not have been the flu, just cause you get really sick does not mean it is influenza. The other coronaviruses can cause a more severe illness and also RSV.
I had RSV a few years ago and it kicked my butt for almost a month. The only reason I knew it was RSV is because my young niece had to be airlifted to a bigger hospital because of it.
The only way to know if you had the flu is the flu test.
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top dog
Footballguy
True. The respiratory infection I had at Christmas that kicked my butt more than anything I've had in my life was not the flu. Tested negative.
Rich Conway
Footballguy
I had something last December. Can't imagine it was COVID. Don't think it was the flu either. I went to bed, perfectly fine. Woke up at 5am sweating my ### off, fever of about 102. No congestion, no coughing, but I was on my ### all day. Could barely muster energy to talk. That evening, handed the kids cash and told them to go get dinner in town (walking distance, luckily). Managed to suck down a milkshake that they bought for me and went right back to bed. Got up absolutely fine the next morning.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Just because it was not the flu, does not mean it was Covid. There is a host of other respiratory illnesses, including the other coronavirus strains that have been around for years (the ones from the back of the Lysol can). Not saying it wasn't Covid, but odds are more likely that it was not. Guess you'll never know for sure now that they've both tested positive since then, but that fact in itself also makes it highly unlikely that the January event was not Covid, as we have seen only very limited cases of reinfection.
Osaurus
Footballguy
Rich Conway
Footballguy
Unlikely, as I generally don't eat out, and it didn't include any other typical food poisoning symptoms, but hey, anything's possible.
The Commish
Footballguy
It's almost a guarantee that it wasn't "a few thousand", but I can absolutely believe it was less than 100,000 and I have no idea what they are reporting as their "official" number. The actions they took were intense and no joke. You want to know what a real "lockdown" looks like? Look at China. It was painful. However, now, they are basically back to normal (though still not allowing many people into their country from other countries). What was the official number that China provided?Just an aside: It seems to be rarely talked about ... but can it truly be that a country as large as China pretty much has had only a few thousand COVID cases in the last 9 months? That beggars belief. But you can't prove a negative, so
Osaurus
Footballguy
What you described has happened to me and it was definitely food poisoning. Waking up in the middle of the night and sweating my ### off was not fun.
The Commish
Footballguy
Anecdote warning!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Me and my family have never been healthier. We've only had runny noses from allergies this year...that's it. I have a three year old who's been back at "school" since August. Normally, with kids that age it's a runny nose every week with fevers here and there. Not a single issue for him at all and since the rest of us are home (we both work from home and our other kids are virtual) he's the only one that would bring it to us. It's been awesome.
The Commish
Footballguy
The first thing I thought of when he told his story was gall stone. That's exactly what happened to my wife.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Powerful story from the NY times on the dark days of Queens in the Spring (centered on Elmhust Hospital). Very long but worth the read.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/03/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/03/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
