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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)

How concerned should we be with the UK mutation?  
If you are on Facebook, check out Dear Pandemic. They had a good analysis. Basically the tl;dr is that vaccinations are designed with mutations in mind and a change in one location of the virus, even on the spike protein, is unlikely to alter the success of the vaccine.  It would take a collective set of mutations over time to render the vaccine less effective. 

 
How concerned should we be with the UK mutation?  
The Philadelphia Inquirer ran a good laymen’s overview yesterday. Upshot is that the UK mutation is not all that much of a concern over other strains.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/london-britain-coronavirus-covid-19-lockdown-mutation--20201219.html

One thing I do wonder about is what, exactly, makes a virus “more transmissible” or “transmit faster”? The first thing that comes to mind is a hardier viral capsule that resists UV and temperature better than other strains. Is that typically what it is with “more transmission” mutations?

 
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Edit: I don’t really care if the risks of transmission are low walking by someone outdoors at six feet. We are stricter than most, and we plan on integrating with two families for the holidays, but only under the directive that all of us strictly quarantine for two weeks with zero breeches, even minor, or it’s off. Community spread here is uncontrolled. Our strict protocols include 17 feet distance even outdoors. Incidentally, there is a new strain that we know is circulating widely in Europe that is 70% more transmissible. So our choice is to assume it’s in the air around people. I think this is a good best practice for all. If I can smell your perfume, I can smell your COVID.
If you are being that cautious, why would you get together with 2 other families? I'm not as strict walking around in public and there's no way I would do that under any pre planned precautions.

 
Edit: I don’t really care if the risks of transmission are low walking by someone outdoors at six feet
Just one data point -- myself.

I consider the risk of transmission in the bolded scenario to be essentially nil. I don't share that to start a debate because my take is based as much or more on a hunch than it is on hard science. I can fully understand that others' hunches can lead them to different conclusions.

I shared the data point to point that there's like far more people whose hunches shade to my perspective than to yours. Not a questions of "who's right?" or "who's wrong?" Just that you may find yourselves often having to bend against the wider world -- you'll have to take the greater care as others will not. And that's pretty much what you're describing in your post, so I recognize that what I'm posting here are things you already know and account for.

 

 
Also, from time news broke there was speculation that vaccine may not be effective. Isn’t this pretty easy to deduce? mRNA uses a precise sequence that’s like a key to a lock. Either the sequence they target is there or it isn’t. There is no partially correct key, from what I understand.
Much research still be done -- but preliminarily it does, in fact, look like partially correct keys (e.g. antibodies to older coronaviruses) do exist. One theory is that these close-enough antibodies are part of the puzzle that explains why some people don't contract COVID-19 when exposed or else end up asymptomatic if infected.

 
Edit: I don’t really care if the risks of transmission are low walking by someone outdoors at six feet. We are stricter than most, and we plan on integrating with two families for the holidays, but only under the directive that all of us strictly quarantine for two weeks with zero breeches, even minor, or it’s off.
I'm confused. You breeched your own "strict quarantine" by taking the family for a walk even being 17 ft or whatever from other people.  

 
The Philadelphia Inquirer ran a good laymen’s overview yesterday. Upshot is that the UK mutation is not all that much of a concern over other strains.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/london-britain-coronavirus-covid-19-lockdown-mutation--20201219.html

One thing I do wonder about is what, exactly, makes a virus “more transmissible” or “transmit faster”? The first thing that comes to mind is a hardier viral capsule that resists UV and temperature better than other strains. Is that typically what it is with “more transmission” mutations?
Not a fan of labeling something more transmissible without a legend for what that means, and how it should impact protocols.
Agree 100%. "More transmissible" will be translated as "worse" and "more serious" even if it really isn't. More specificity is needed and yes, information on how protocols should be adjusted.

 
We’re all allowed to go for outdoor walks while maintaining maximum distance. There’s no “if 17 foot bubble is popped, it’s off” provision. Other than that, none of us are out in public and nothing indoors with anyone beyond our families. 
Just pointing out that isn't a quarantine. 

 
How concerned should we be with the UK mutation?  
France, Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium, Italy and Kuwait have all banned flights from UK while they get more info.

UK officials say it’s 70% more transmissible.

This sub has some excellent new info:

https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/kgvng7/nervtag_meeting_on_sarscov2_variant_under/

Like anything else with this virus, the real answer is that it’s too early and no one has a freaking clue. Will take some time to figure it out.

 
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Same. Less painful than the flu. But I’m <15 mins post (they ask us to wait 15 mins after before letting us go - nobody seems to be suffering ill effects in the post vaccine waiting room)
>48 hours post and zero ill effects. I typically get 24-48 hours of a sore deltoid with the flu vaccine. Nothing so far with the Pfizer vaccine.

Obviously sample size of 1 so take it for what it’s worth.

 
Who’s forcing anybody? Anyone is free to not get vaccinated...and free to deal with the consequences of that choice.
Nah, that's b.s.  I shouldn't be outcast from normal societal functions for choosing not to poison my body.  The body heals itself, it's my choice how to treat my body and I shouldn't be fired from my job for that choice.  This is complete absurdity.

 
Nope.  I shouldn't have to disclose my medical privacy to anyone, including my employer.


Nah, that's b.s.  I shouldn't be outcast from normal societal functions for choosing not to poison my body.  The body heals itself, it's my choice how to treat my body and I shouldn't be fired from my job for that choice.  This is complete absurdity.
If you think you have the "right" to infect everyone around you, especially in a workplace, then we have zero grounds for discussion. And I feel fairly confident you have no grasp of the concept of rights. 

 
Doug B said:
That's a good article. I would love to see something that digs a bit deeper and offers at least some hypothesized reasons that one strain of a virus transmits more easily than another. Maybe it's not yet known for sure, but I'd be interested even in educated speculation.
The Great Influenza gets into some of this stuff.  I understand the concepts, but not the micro science on receptors, etc.  Both the UK and South African strain seem less than in good to this layman (both seem to spread more easily and have worse symptoms).  I’ve also read that the hypothesis is that these mutate in people who have symptoms for awhile with the plasma transfusions potentially creating better conditions in the body for mutating. It all seems plausible, but I also don’t want to freak out just yet either.  

 
If you think you have the "right" to infect everyone around you, especially in a workplace, then we have zero grounds for discussion. And I feel fairly confident you have no grasp of the concept of rights. 
I am a healthy individual and Covid is a curable flu.  Why is it assumed I'm infecting everyone?  The absurdity and mind-numbing obedience resulting from this virus is alarming.  I wonder how many military vets are gung-ho about getting this vaccine?  I know this will not get the vaccine and I didn't volunteer my life for this country to see every ounce of freedom taken in a matter of months.  There are tons of doctors and scientists saying things that conflict the mainstream narrative.  That should concern folks. That should get people wanting to know the truth.  Yet here we are.  Anyone offering anything other than the official narrative is ostracized and ridiculed.  It's OK to ask questions, especially when there are a large number of professionals saying something different than what our government and media are telling us.  When that happens, it's even more important to listen.

 
shader said:
France, Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium, Italy and Kuwait have all banned flights from UK while they get more info.

UK officials say it’s 70% more transmissible.

This sub has some excellent new info:

https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/kgvng7/nervtag_meeting_on_sarscov2_variant_under/

Like anything else with this virus, the real answer is that it’s too early and no one has a freaking clue. Will take some time to figure it out.
Including us as we let flight after flight in from the UK. We did this in Jan-Feb shutting down China but leaving the door to Europe wide open and NYC got crushed. Think it happens again?

 
Doug B said:
That's a good article. I would love to see something that digs a bit deeper and offers at least some hypothesized reasons that one strain of a virus transmits more easily than another. Maybe it's not yet known for sure, but I'd be interested even in educated speculation.
This article clarifies some of your questions. The mutation occurs in the spike protein and is associated with slightly delayed, but larger outbreaks in younger (median 4-5 year difference) populations. The exact mechanism is unclear, but it is associated with higher viral burden in the nasopharynx of infected individuals. And they estimated R0:

The spike protein 614 polymorphism on its own explains very little variance in growth rates among clusters (weighted least-squares R2 = 1%), and there was no significant difference in initial growth rates (median initial growth rate for 614D clusters = 117 year−1 versus 169 year−1 for 614G clusters; Kruskal Wallis p = 0.13).  This corresponds to an R0 of 3.1 (interquartile range, IQR: 2.7–3.5) for 614D clusters and 4.0 (IQR: 3.1–4.8) for 614G clusters, assuming a 6.5 day serial interval (Flaxman et al., 2020).
Fortunately, it doesn’t cause more severe infection.

ETA This isn’t talking about the new UK strain, rather the Italy strain that branched from the original virus. The UK strain is even more contagious, ~20-70% or so from other articles.  :kicksrock:

 
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I am a healthy individual and Covid is a curable flu.  Why is it assumed I'm infecting everyone?  The absurdity and mind-numbing obedience resulting from this virus is alarming.  I wonder how many military vets are gung-ho about getting this vaccine?  I know this will not get the vaccine and I didn't volunteer my life for this country to see every ounce of freedom taken in a matter of months.  There are tons of doctors and scientists saying things that conflict the mainstream narrative.  That should concern folks. That should get people wanting to know the truth.  Yet here we are.  Anyone offering anything other than the official narrative is ostracized and ridiculed.  It's OK to ask questions, especially when there are a large number of professionals saying something different than what our government and media are telling us.  When that happens, it's even more important to listen.
You have link to the tons of doctors and scientists saying that this is just a flu? I am interested as all of the doctors that I work with seem to agree that this is pretty bad.

Also, I would like to hear these many doctors and scientists opinions on why the ICUs are full and many hospitals in hard hit areas are over capacity. I am interested because the doctors I work with seem to agree that this is pretty bad. 

Also, I was wondering if the tons of doctors and scientists can explain why Covid deaths are the leading cause of death in the US for 2019, while the usual top causes have seen a very small percentage drop. The doctors I work with seem to think it is because this is pretty bad. But your sources seem to indicate otherwise. 

I have a long work day tomorrow but I can take the time to read all of the thoughtful, reasoned, peer reviewed reports to which you must be referencing. Thank you in advance.

 
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I am a healthy individual and Covid is a curable flu.  Why is it assumed I'm infecting everyone?  The absurdity and mind-numbing obedience resulting from this virus is alarming.  I wonder how many military vets are gung-ho about getting this vaccine?  I know this will not get the vaccine and I didn't volunteer my life for this country to see every ounce of freedom taken in a matter of months.  There are tons of doctors and scientists saying things that conflict the mainstream narrative.  That should concern folks. That should get people wanting to know the truth.  Yet here we are.  Anyone offering anything other than the official narrative is ostracized and ridiculed.  It's OK to ask questions, especially when there are a large number of professionals saying something different than what our government and media are telling us.  When that happens, it's even more important to listen.
Your chances of developing complications from the vaccine are significantly less than the chance that you get infected and it turns out to be way more than "a curable flu".

It is not "a curable flu" for many, many people. I have seen, firsthand, a lot of deaths from this disease. I have seen people that have had their lives turned completely upside down and will have lifelong complications from this disease, including needing to do dialysis (trust me, it's way worse than it sounds) and see lung doctors for the rest of their shortened lives.

You're gambling that you won't be one of the people that develops a severe case. Honestly, your odds are probably pretty good. I don't know anything about you, or your general health, or the specifics of your immune system. And there isn't any really firm data to predict that, anyway. Whether you've done it consciously, or not, you've already make a risk/benefit analysis about your chances and I can't disagree with your odds.

Society as an aggregate, though, views the risk/benefit through a different lens, though. They see you unvaccinated as a potential vector for the disease. It's not just about YOU and YOUR chances of getting "just a flu, bro". You not getting the vaccine makes you a significant risk to infect others and allow the virus to continue to propagate. Society has a risk/benefit analysis to make, as well. To the rest of us, you're way more of a risk not getting the vaccine.

The pinch point seems to be that you want people to honor and respect your risk/benefit analysis, but you're not willing to concede that others have a different risk/benefit threshold. Or, you concede it but don't care. Employers have the right to refuse employment to people they consider a risk. Businesses have the right to refuse service to people they view as a risk. Governments have the responsibility to ensure that public health guidelines are followed- you can't ignore vaccinations for a kid and still send them to school.

Americans need to examine their identity as rugged individualists and reassess their fundamental beliefs in "freedom". We all exist in the context of a Society. There is an implicit social contract involved, with rights and responsibilities on both sides. Your stance is essentially asking Society at large to selflessly ignore its own interests to honor your choice, which isn't justified by science or data, but a hunch (and, imho, a bunch of really bad, bunk pseudoscience propagated by a bunch of "really fake news" healthcare and science "experts") Your choice has consequences- either live with them, or choose differently.

tl;dr it's not "just a flu, bro". You not getting the vaccine is fine- it even makes sense from an individual risk/benefit analysis. The rest of Society, in aggregate, has a significantly different risk/benefit analysis. There's no Macchiavellian overlord making these decisions to erode your freedoms; there are only businesses and other individuals and the elected officials responsible for public health making decisions based on their risk/benefit. Your choice is fine, but live with the consequences.

if you want true freedom, go do a Thoreau or Unabomber and live off grid, completely self-sufficiently. That's honestly the only way you can unilaterally make those kind of decisions and make sure your freedom is inviolate. But, if you rely on other people to feed, shelter and provide for you and yours, be prepared to have to make concessions for 'the greater good'.

 
How does a 30 something year old politician get the vaccine already? I thought Healthcare and long term care facilities were priority voted on?

 
I wonder how many military vets are gung-ho about getting this vaccine?  I know this will not get the vaccine and I didn't volunteer my life for this country to see every ounce of freedom taken in a matter of months. 

I'm a 21+ year retired vet. I'll be first in line the second I'm given the opportunity.

There are tons of doctors and scientists saying things that conflict the mainstream narrative.  That should concern folks. 

Post links or stop posting this tripe. Of course you won't because you can't. Because everyone here knows no such link exists.

 
This is amazingly awful. Most of those "doctors" have virtually no credentials or aren't even physicians. They are all fringe practitioners that deny the pandemic even exists.

Here is the group they belong to

They are an EXTREME minority and, while I'm sure you will dismiss anything stated to you here, that entire video is a joke and not at all representative of the vast majority of the medical field.

 
This is amazingly awful. Most of those "doctors" have virtually no credentials or aren't even physicians. They are all fringe practitioners that deny the pandemic even exists.

Here is the group they belong to

They are an EXTREME minority and, while I'm sure you will dismiss anything stated to you here, that entire video is a joke and not at all representative of the vast majority of the medical field.
You couldn't pay me enough to get medically treated by anyone in that group. 

 
.  I wonder how many military vets are gung-ho about getting this vaccine?  I know this will not get the vaccine


I shouldn't be fired from my job for that choice
Nope.  I shouldn't have to disclose my medical privacy to anyone, including my employer.
You realize when your employer was Uncle Sam you received several vaccines required by your employer who has your complete medical records. 

Happy Holidays Rhythmdoctor! Thank you for your service. 

 
How does a 30 something year old politician get the vaccine already? I thought Healthcare and long term care facilities were priority voted on?
Some of the politicians should be getting it but definitely not the healthy 30 year olds. Healthy 50 year olds are even highly questionable.

 
The last couple of pages have drifted into both extremes and that’s what drives everyone crazy. Balance is the key. @Mr Ham I appreciate that you are being especially cautious for the safety of yourself and your family. I could come up with an example of some extreme behavior that could result from going overboard with the precautions but you just told a story about yelling at someone you believe to be in their 70s for walking int the middle of the street and not giving your family enough space. You’re there already.

Let me tell you how this will play out - COVID will find its way into your circle. All the stress and anxiety will push you or your family to make mistakes. I’ve heard many stories of people who were being so careful but then decided to do something stupid. You’re already in the path with getting together with the other two families. That’s how lot of the transmission is happening. Not from random people outside coming within 17 feet of you. It’s someone who maybe didn’t take the agreed quarantine as seriously as you. Or maybe someone who was having a slight symptom but didn’t want to say anything because they know how important the trip is to your kids.

Balance is the key. I’ve been the one taking on all the risk in my family and it’s been stressful. I eventually learned that I had to balance my venting (which is needed) about bad behavior and close calls for the well-being of my family. Cabin fever and stress led to calls to just ‘stop caring’ and eventually a compromise of a weekend at an indoor water park. It didn’t end up being a mistake but it sure could have. Since then I’ve toned down my venting and encouraged the rest of the family to take on slight risks to help keep them sane while also managing the risk. My 5 year old is better with wearing her mask appropriately than most adults.

Protect yourself and your family but try to find a balance that doesn’t end with yelling at an elderly man in the street.

 
How is this stuff allowed in this thread?  It wouldn't even be allowed in the PSF thread :lol:  
On the bright side, the divide in this county should be mended soon.  Either the vaccine is going to poison all the team xxxxx voters or covid will take out most of the team xxxxx voters.

 

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