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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
gianmarco
Footballguy
Well, isn't this timely
Article that discusses absence of other viruses but unfortunately they will likely rebound pretty hard. It's a very science-y article from WaPo but a good read.
beer 30
Footballguy
Given what we know regarding mask wearing & social distancing acceptance, would it shock anyone if, as soon as we put down COVID, the populace goes on a bender and flu spikes?
But in the last few months, after the coronavirus was virtually obliterated and the country ended those restrictions, the number of flu cases among children aged 5 and younger began to soar, rising sixfold by December, when such cases are usually at their lowest.
“That’s an important cautionary tale for us,” Messacar said. “Just because we get through the winter and don’t see much RSV or influenza doesn’t mean we’ll be out of the woods.”
culdeus
Footballguy
Israel has done some looking at the data and thinks day 14 is perhaps the first time you can see effect from the shot.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-data-shows-50-reduction-in-infections-14-days-after-first-vaccine-shot/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-data-shows-50-reduction-in-infections-14-days-after-first-vaccine-shot/
That's consistent with curves from the clinical trials, where placebo versus vaccine COVID cumulative incidence start to sharply diverge around day 14:
https://www.google.com/search?q=pfizer+vaccine+versus+placebo+graph&tbm=isch&ved=2ahUKEwilu72wi5nuAhWSiFMKHaJYDKAQ2-cCegQIABAC&oq=pfizer+vaccine+versus+placebo+graph&gs_lcp=ChJtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1pbWcQAzIECAAQDTIICAAQCBANEB46BggAEA0QHjoFCCEQqwJQzBBYzx9g2SJoAHAAeACAAbACiAGBC5IBBzAuNS4xLjGYAQCgAQHAAQE&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-img&ei=fv_-X6WEPJKRzgKisbGACg&bih=560&biw=360&client=ms-android-att-us&prmd=nisv
culdeus
Footballguy
Yeah somewhere between day 9 and 14 in the trials is showing an effect, some researchers are pointing out that we never really got the level of granularity to pinpoint where between day 7 and 14 is the knee. The sample size in the day 7-10 range is really low. The knee could be sooner, but I would go with 14 days to be safe as a point at which you can let out at least a little relief.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
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Doug B
Footballguy
The Future of the Coronavirus? An Annoying Childhood Infection (New York Times, 1/12/2021)
Once immunity is widespread in adults, the virus rampaging across the world will come to resemble the common cold, scientists predict.
As millions are inoculated against the coronavirus, and the pandemic’s end finally seems to glimmer into view, scientists are envisioning what a post-vaccine world might look like — and what they see is comforting.
The coronavirus is here to stay, but once most adults are immune — following natural infection or vaccination — the virus will be no more of a threat than the common cold, according to a study published in the journal Science on Tuesday.
Once immunity is widespread in adults, the virus rampaging across the world will come to resemble the common cold, scientists predict.
As millions are inoculated against the coronavirus, and the pandemic’s end finally seems to glimmer into view, scientists are envisioning what a post-vaccine world might look like — and what they see is comforting.
The coronavirus is here to stay, but once most adults are immune — following natural infection or vaccination — the virus will be no more of a threat than the common cold, according to a study published in the journal Science on Tuesday.
The virus is a grim menace now because it is an unfamiliar pathogen that can overwhelm the adult immune system, which has not been trained to fight it. That will no longer be the case once everyone has been exposed to either the virus or vaccine.
Children, on the other hand, are constantly challenged by pathogens that are new to their bodies, and that is one reason they are more adept than adults at fending off the coronavirus. Eventually, the study suggests, the virus will be of concern only in children younger than 5, subjecting even them to mere sniffles — or no symptoms at all.
In other words, the coronavirus will become “endemic,” a pathogen that circulates at low levels and only rarely causes serious illness.
“The timing of how long it takes to get to this sort of endemic state depends on how quickly the disease is spreading, and how quickly vaccination is rolled out,” said Jennie Lavine, a postdoctoral fellow at Emory University in Atlanta, who led the study.
“So really, the name of the game is getting everyone exposed for the first time to the vaccine as quickly as possible.”
Dr. Lavine and her colleagues looked to the six other human coronaviruses — four that cause the common cold, plus the SARS and MERS viruses — for clues to the fate of the new pathogen.
The four common cold coronaviruses are endemic, and produce only mild symptoms. SARS and MERS, which surfaced in 2003 and 2012, respectively, made people severely ill, but they did not spread widely.
While all of these coronaviruses produce a similar immune response, the new virus is most similar to the endemic common cold coronaviruses, Dr. Lavine and her colleagues hypothesized.
Reanalyzing data from a previous study, they found that the first infection with common cold coronaviruses occurs on average at 3 to 5 years of age. After that age, people may become infected again and again, boosting their immunity and keeping the viruses circulating. But they don’t become ill.
The researchers foresee a similar future for the new coronavirus.
Depending on how fast the virus spreads, and on the strength and longevity of the immune response, it would take a few years to decades of natural infections for the coronavirus to become endemic, Dr. Lavine said.
Without a vaccine, the fastest path to endemic status is also the worst. The price for population immunity would be widespread illness and death along the way.
Vaccines completely alter that calculus: The faster people can be immunized, the better. An efficient vaccination rollout could shorten the timeline to a year, or even just six months, for the coronavirus to become an endemic infection.
Still, the vaccines are unlikely to eradicate the coronavirus, Dr. Lavine predicted. The virus will become a permanent, albeit more benign, inhabitant in our environment.
(read more at link)
Children, on the other hand, are constantly challenged by pathogens that are new to their bodies, and that is one reason they are more adept than adults at fending off the coronavirus. Eventually, the study suggests, the virus will be of concern only in children younger than 5, subjecting even them to mere sniffles — or no symptoms at all.
In other words, the coronavirus will become “endemic,” a pathogen that circulates at low levels and only rarely causes serious illness.
“The timing of how long it takes to get to this sort of endemic state depends on how quickly the disease is spreading, and how quickly vaccination is rolled out,” said Jennie Lavine, a postdoctoral fellow at Emory University in Atlanta, who led the study.
“So really, the name of the game is getting everyone exposed for the first time to the vaccine as quickly as possible.”
Dr. Lavine and her colleagues looked to the six other human coronaviruses — four that cause the common cold, plus the SARS and MERS viruses — for clues to the fate of the new pathogen.
The four common cold coronaviruses are endemic, and produce only mild symptoms. SARS and MERS, which surfaced in 2003 and 2012, respectively, made people severely ill, but they did not spread widely.
While all of these coronaviruses produce a similar immune response, the new virus is most similar to the endemic common cold coronaviruses, Dr. Lavine and her colleagues hypothesized.
Reanalyzing data from a previous study, they found that the first infection with common cold coronaviruses occurs on average at 3 to 5 years of age. After that age, people may become infected again and again, boosting their immunity and keeping the viruses circulating. But they don’t become ill.
The researchers foresee a similar future for the new coronavirus.
Depending on how fast the virus spreads, and on the strength and longevity of the immune response, it would take a few years to decades of natural infections for the coronavirus to become endemic, Dr. Lavine said.
Without a vaccine, the fastest path to endemic status is also the worst. The price for population immunity would be widespread illness and death along the way.
Vaccines completely alter that calculus: The faster people can be immunized, the better. An efficient vaccination rollout could shorten the timeline to a year, or even just six months, for the coronavirus to become an endemic infection.
Still, the vaccines are unlikely to eradicate the coronavirus, Dr. Lavine predicted. The virus will become a permanent, albeit more benign, inhabitant in our environment.
(read more at link)
Apparently 3 house members who were vaccinated on Jan 4, may have contracted the virus during the storming of the Capitol on Jan 6 while sequestered in close quarters with several maskless representatives. Most of those few subjects in the vaccine arms of the Pfizer and Moderna trials who contracted COVID, got the disease between dose 1 and dose 2.
The Capitol outbreak shows one vaccine dose may not fully shield against the coronavirus Just because you got a Covid-19 vaccine doesn’t mean you’re invulnerable to reckless behavior.
culdeus
Footballguy
Yeah, I think we have to be aware that ######s that are still spreading it can bust the vax. I think the best approach is to not do what is considered high risk behavior until after the 2nd dose. Even then it's not perfect, and I'm not trying to promote people going out and starting to lick doorknobs, but instead where we can start looking to see impact from dose 1 in the numbers and begin to think maybe this is over in the spring, rather than the fall.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Youyang Gu's estimate is herd immunity in the USA by summer 2021, but deaths falling sooner due to early vaccination of the most vulnerable. Imported cases will still be an issue in 2022.
Path to Herd Immunity - COVID-19 Vaccine Projections
Doug B
Footballguy
Science says -- We don't know with enough certainty to make any kind of helpful call one way or the other.
...
Doug B, off the cuff, says -- Once you've gained immunity, you're not going to be able to get enough viral load in your body to be able to just exude viral aerosols like an invisible smokestack. So no, you're not going to become a secret, healthy-looking carrier. (Opinion subject to change in the face of firmer consensus information)
culdeus
Footballguy
As others have pointed out, this is highly misleading. He's saying once we get to 40% herd immunity we will get fewer than 3M new infections, ever again. And by June we will start actually losing people that have had Covid to other things faster than people are catching covid.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Got my vaccine scheduled for Monday afternoon!
coopersdad
Footballguy
worrierking
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
I'm going to refrain from talking #### about the town until after they stick me, but I also also refrain from disagreeing with you
worrierking
Footballguy
A couple of reasons for optimism today. First, it is looking more and more like new cases in the UK have peaked and are now going down. It's way too early to hoist a pint in celebration down at the local pub as they could start back up tomorrow, but this could mean that the new strain isn't really as infectious as the early numbers indicated. If they truly are past the peak, then some of the worst fears may not occur.
Second, OurWorldinData is showing 950,000 vaccinations reported today in the US. It's not showing on other trackers yet, so it may not be correct (the trackers don't always match up), but if it's correct, that's tremendous and nearing the hoped for one million per day.
Second, OurWorldinData is showing 950,000 vaccinations reported today in the US. It's not showing on other trackers yet, so it may not be correct (the trackers don't always match up), but if it's correct, that's tremendous and nearing the hoped for one million per day.
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Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Also some sources will have a bit of lag. Some are literally tracking on sheets of paper, and entering into computer system later. All in all, moving along well all things considered.
RnR
Footballguy
what was the loophole move? i may or may not be willing to drive to Starkville. #HailStateOfficially stuck.
Round 2 2/10/21.
Moderna shot is damn near painless. Wheee. Now to drive 2.5hrs home and race the arm soreness
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
So uh, how'd you game it? I'll take a PM.Officially stuck.
Round 2 2/10/21.
Moderna shot is damn near painless. Wheee. Now to drive 2.5hrs home and race the arm soreness
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Insoxicated
They've opened it up to any adults with a "pre-existing condition "list that is very broad... But I absolutely do qualify.
I've also done some freelance work for a network of clinics in MS. Used their address since I technically work for a medical facility.
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DallasDMac
Footballguy
Got my first dose today. Took about an hour and forty minutes altogether. My main concern now is, they gave me my vaccine card and said "You need to get your second shot around Feb 3rd. Good luck!" i.e. I am on my own for the second shot. Thing is, I was EXTREMELY lucky to get in on this shot. There were 187,000 people online when the site went live for 9,000 appointments. I somehow managed to get one. But I think there is a very good chance I won't be able to get a second appointment and may end up having wasted a vaccine.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Highly unlikely.
1. There is some evidence that one dose is pretty effective.
2. It isnt like at day 22 everything disappears from your body.
[icon]
Insoxicated
Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
I am locked in for 1c. We just started 1b this week. I can jump early if I want to work at a Point of Distribution. Right now I am not needed for that, but as we roll through hundreds of vaccinations per day... burnout is likely and we will need people to step in.
I do think that some things are improving with the rollout but the latest is going to make my job hell. The feds recommended prioritizing 65+, Arizona decided to take the recommendation starting next Tuesday barely a week after they opened registration for 75+. Now we have to wait and see what Maricopa county decides.
We’ve barely scratched the surface of 75+ and now they’re doing this. I’m guessing they will continue with the same guidelines but it is going to cause mass confusion and we will spend the entire day deal with that and struggle to give the 20 shots we have scheduled.
The rumor today was that there were no restrictions. Don’t even have to show ID or insurance, just show up and they will give you the shot. I’m ready to stopping answering the phones and put up a sign that unless you have an appointment scheduled or prescription business, we won’t be helping you. But I think that would be frowned upon.
We’ve barely scratched the surface of 75+ and now they’re doing this. I’m guessing they will continue with the same guidelines but it is going to cause mass confusion and we will spend the entire day deal with that and struggle to give the 20 shots we have scheduled.
The rumor today was that there were no restrictions. Don’t even have to show ID or insurance, just show up and they will give you the shot. I’m ready to stopping answering the phones and put up a sign that unless you have an appointment scheduled or prescription business, we won’t be helping you. But I think that would be frowned upon.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Actually, the newly released guideline is to stop doing this to get more people vaccinated. The Mayor actually made that point today in his daily brief. Fortunately, he also announced that everyone vaccinated before noon today at the Alamodome (which includes me) would be getting a call from Metro Health to schedule the second dose. So sometime between my shot around 11 a.m. and the Mayor's 6:13 p.m. brief, they instituted a policy to try and get everyone their second dose. I am glad I watch the local news because otherwise I would have had no idea to look for that call, and I never answer unknown numbers. It was in direct contrast to what I was told at the vaccination site.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Zero side-effects here BTW (knock on wood). A little more sore around the injection site than I normally am with the flu shot but really, that's it. I even slept on that side with no issues.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
NJ opened vaccine scheduling to group 1c, which I qualify for due to BMI. My first dose is scheduled for March 1.
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Insoxicated
https://gut.bmj.com/content/early/2021/01/04/gutjnl-2020-323020
"Gut microbiome composition was significantly altered in patients with COVID-19 compared with non-COVID-19 individuals irrespective of whether patients had received medication (p<0.01). Several gut commensals with known immunomodulatory potential such as Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, Eubacterium rectale and bifidobacteria were underrepresented in patients and remained low in samples collected up to 30 days after disease resolution. Moreover, this perturbed composition exhibited stratification with disease severity concordant with elevated concentrations of inflammatory cytokines and blood markers such as C reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, aspartate aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transferase."
"Gut microbiome composition was significantly altered in patients with COVID-19 compared with non-COVID-19 individuals irrespective of whether patients had received medication (p<0.01). Several gut commensals with known immunomodulatory potential such as Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, Eubacterium rectale and bifidobacteria were underrepresented in patients and remained low in samples collected up to 30 days after disease resolution. Moreover, this perturbed composition exhibited stratification with disease severity concordant with elevated concentrations of inflammatory cytokines and blood markers such as C reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, aspartate aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transferase."
Looks like the answer is yes
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/14/health/covid-immunity-antibodies-intl/index.html
worrierking
Footballguy
Happy to see so many in here getting the vaccine. Herd immunity for this thread is fast approaching!
I'm in phase 1b tier 2 as an essential government responder, which is likely to be a month or so here in Louisiana. Worrierqueen leapt ahead of me this week. She's been retired for three years but got bored and decided to look for a part-time job. She accepted a position at the local hospital's fitness center. She asked about the vaccine (she was a bit concerned about working in a gym) and they said she qualifies as a hospital employee. She should get the first shot of the Pfizer vaccine next week.
I'm in phase 1b tier 2 as an essential government responder, which is likely to be a month or so here in Louisiana. Worrierqueen leapt ahead of me this week. She's been retired for three years but got bored and decided to look for a part-time job. She accepted a position at the local hospital's fitness center. She asked about the vaccine (she was a bit concerned about working in a gym) and they said she qualifies as a hospital employee. She should get the first shot of the Pfizer vaccine next week.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Thanks for posting this. Not great news, obviously, but also not surprising. Hopefully many continue to consider others in their continued social distancing even if they've been infected. And hopefully the vaccine confers longer and more effective immunity to help prevent spread.
belljr
Footballguy
So I have taken this very seriously but I'm curious now if masks are really needed in certain situations. So when they consider close contact for tracing it's the 15minute exposure or same amount of time in a 24 hour period. Six feet etc I wear masks and will continue to do so but are they really necessary if I run into a convenience store? A coffee shop if I'm walking in placing an order and leaving?
I get needing them in gyms or say shopping at lowes super market etc where your most likely going to be indoors with many people for longer periods of time. I guess you can't half mandate masks here and there.
Just something I've been thinking about
I get needing them in gyms or say shopping at lowes super market etc where your most likely going to be indoors with many people for longer periods of time. I guess you can't half mandate masks here and there.
Just something I've been thinking about
worrierking
Footballguy
I don't feel any angst in a store if someone near me is not masked. Quick interactions are not why we have a pandemic (although brief encounters are likely to be responsible for a few infections). I always wear a mask in a store, but I think we have a pandemic because people don't wear them at the most important times (when they are in close contact for long periods during social gatherings and at work).
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Haven’t received my email yet and I’m in 1C. Bummer.
I get why they’re doing it, but rubs me a bit the wrong way that smokers are being classified as having underlying health conditions and qualified as 1b in NJ. It does make sense as they are higher risk because of their compromised lungs, so from a pure public health standpoint I get it. Just a bit frustrating personally that my profession doesn’t get me classified as 1B despite being public health related and dealing directly with the virus at times when I have family with immunological issues at home, but someone who has chosen to smoke can get it ahead of me. Maybe that’s just selfish of me.
jamny
Footballguy
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Mine came from the Cooper Health System (Camden County), and I had to register using their online patient portal. So it may be a function of whose database you are in.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Its a non peer reviewed study and that article as far as I can tell didnt even link it. That should always make everybody skeptical.jamny said:
This is the most relevant info right now.
Of the 44 potential reinfections identified by the study, 2 were designated ‘probable’ and 42 ‘possible’, based on the amount of confirmatory evidence available. If all 44 cases were confirmed, it would represent an 83% rate of protection from reinfection, while if only the 2 ‘probable’ reinfections were confirmed, the rate would be 99%. Further research is ongoing to clarify this range.
