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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee


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Let's get ready to rumble.

Go Bernie, but best wishes to whichever candidate you support.  May the have a strong showing and being able to fight until a primary/caucus in your state.

Edited by BassNBrew
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CNN has been reporting from some of the “satellite” caucuses. These are set up for people that can't attend the regularly scheduled caucus (Working or currently outside the state like  vacationing in Phoenix). Its suppose to open access to the caucuses but they said they don't count the same as the regular caucuses. After the total caucus turnout is calculated the satellite caucuses get a lesser “weighted” vote.

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4 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

Good article by Nate Silver explaining the first alignment/final alignment stuff that will certainly be discussed:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-iowas-three-different-votes-could-affect-who-wins/

It seems the final alignment is the most meaningful. The first alignment seems like an initial primary that no one receives 50% so they have a run off election. Understand its a little different because they throw out anyone that doesn’t have 15% and “realign” to someone that has at least 15%. The other option as mentioned allows people originally with candidates under 15% can basically all realign together forming at least 15%. Interesting its a constant battle for support as you can talk to the “voters” during the process to persuade them to come to your candidate.

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1 minute ago, AAABatteries said:

It's just one and it's on a college so lots of young people.  Just jarring to see Biden at 3.4%.  I don't think any of us really know what is going to happen but if the DNC establishment could get fully behind Sanders I think he wins. 

If DNC stuck their necks out for him (Wich I don't expect) I'm convinced it would be a runaway.

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The one they just showed that wasn't a college campus where Biden supporters "think" they are viable was fun too.

The betting markets and 538 do not align and the 538 live blog is throwing shade. Here's hoping the bettors are smarter.

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Everybody assumed this would come down to Biden vs. either Sanders or Warren.  I really don't know who is the centrist candidate that gets the bump if Biden falls backs even more - I'd support Amy, Bloomberg or obviously Pete.  For those who are hoping to not have an old white guy, Biden having a bad night is a good thing.

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4 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

So far, based on what they are showing at these caucuses, Biden is DOA.

Entrance polls are showing very well for Biden.  30% of the people are over 65% and Biden is crushing that group.

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3 minutes ago, ShamrockPride said:

Seriously. He may even be 5th. Looks like Bern, Pete, Amy, and Liz are all consistently ahead of him.

I'm pulling for Bernie, but easy to forget that we're only getting a small segment televised:
 

Quote

Not viable at this location were: Andrew Yang, who got support from six people; Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., who got support from 11 people, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who got support from 14 people. Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., who dropped out of the race, got the support of two people.

The candidates who surpassed the viability threshold in the first alignment were: Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who got the support of 20 people; former Vice President Joe Biden, who got the support of 21 people; and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who got the support of 20 people.

Dallas County

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3 minutes ago, caustic said:

Who takes time out of their night to come sit in the "uncommitted" circle for an hour?

I went to the caucus in WA in 2016.  Found it completely fascinating, but I might be a dork.  Highly recommend to anyone in a caucus state. 

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Just now, Maurile Tremblay said:

Have scientists done any studies about why Iowa is so boring? I'm generally pretty interested in political stuff, but I can't bring myself to care about tonight's Iowa results at all.

Idk, this whole caucus thing is pretty wild man. Very interesting.

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3 minutes ago, ShamrockPride said:

Although at least in Iowa, highly accurate for the ultimate nominee. MSNBC says Iowa has picked the eventual nominee 100% of the time since 2000.

Was going to make a joke but that's actually pretty impressive for going first.

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