***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee

[BassNBrew 11,098]

Let's get ready to rumble.

Go Bernie, but best wishes to whichever candidate you support.  May the have a strong showing and being able to fight until a primary/caucus in your state.

Edited March 4, 2020 by BassNBrew

[joffer 12,395]

hoping for a strong 3rd from Amy

[Phil Elliott 1,124]

CNN has been reporting from some of the “satellite” caucuses. These are set up for people that can't attend the regularly scheduled caucus (Working or currently outside the state like  vacationing in Phoenix). Its suppose to open access to the caucuses but they said they don't count the same as the regular caucuses. After the total caucus turnout is calculated the satellite caucuses get a lesser “weighted” vote.

Edited February 3, 2020 by Phil Elliott

[Juxtatarot 11,257]

Good article by Nate Silver explaining the first alignment/final alignment stuff that will certainly be discussed:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-iowas-three-different-votes-could-affect-who-wins/

[Phil Elliott 1,124]

4 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

Good article by Nate Silver explaining the first alignment/final alignment stuff that will certainly be discussed:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-iowas-three-different-votes-could-affect-who-wins/

It seems the final alignment is the most meaningful. The first alignment seems like an initial primary that no one receives 50% so they have a run off election. Understand its a little different because they throw out anyone that doesn’t have 15% and “realign” to someone that has at least 15%. The other option as mentioned allows people originally with candidates under 15% can basically all realign together forming at least 15%. Interesting its a constant battle for support as you can talk to the “voters” during the process to persuade them to come to your candidate.

[AAABatteries 24,732]

Holy crap - that caucus they just showed on CNN - college campus.  First round and ongoing.....

45.7% Sanders 

29.3% Warren

8.3% Buttigieg

7.4% Yang

3.4% Biden

[AAABatteries 24,732]

It's just one and it's on a college so lots of young people.  Just jarring to see Biden at 3.4%.  I don't think any of us really know what is going to happen but if the DNC establishment could get fully behind Sanders I think he wins. 

[ShamrockPride 5,346]

1 minute ago, AAABatteries said:

It's just one and it's on a college so lots of young people.  Just jarring to see Biden at 3.4%.  I don't think any of us really know what is going to happen but if the DNC establishment could get fully behind Sanders I think he wins. 

If DNC stuck their necks out for him (Wich I don't expect) I'm convinced it would be a runaway.

[Gawain 2,246]

The one they just showed that wasn't a college campus where Biden supporters "think" they are viable was fun too.

The betting markets and 538 do not align and the 538 live blog is throwing shade. Here's hoping the bettors are smarter.

[ShamrockPride 5,346]

Hasanabi @hasanthehun

cnn is doing everything they can to not mention bernie sanders even they literally didn't show his caucus and  called him "other"

[Getzlaf15 10,902]

Looks like at this location all the groups are in horse stalls

[Gawain 2,246]

Philly caucus, only Sanders & Warren viable.

[AAABatteries 24,732]

So far, based on what they are showing at these caucuses, Biden is DOA.

[caustic 3,899]

This is such a strange process.

[ShamrockPride 5,346]

2 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

So far, based on what they are showing at these caucuses, Biden is DOA.

Seriously. He may even be 5th. Looks like Bern, Pete, Amy, and Liz are all consistently ahead of him.

[AAABatteries 24,732]

Everybody assumed this would come down to Biden vs. either Sanders or Warren.  I really don't know who is the centrist candidate that gets the bump if Biden falls backs even more - I'd support Amy, Bloomberg or obviously Pete.  For those who are hoping to not have an old white guy, Biden having a bad night is a good thing.

[Juxtatarot 11,257]

13 minutes ago, ShamrockPride said:

Hasanabi @hasanthehun

cnn is doing everything they can to not mention bernie sanders even they literally didn't show his caucus and  called him "other"

I’m watching the panel discussion now and they’re all speaking positively about Sanders.

[BassNBrew 11,098]

4 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

So far, based on what they are showing at these caucuses, Biden is DOA.

Entrance polls are showing very well for Biden.  30% of the people are over 65% and Biden is crushing that group.

[ShamrockPride 5,346]

4 minutes ago, caustic said:

This is such a strange process.

Intimidating too. This is essentially open booth voting.

[krista4 24,742]

:anyonebutbidendot:

Edited February 4, 2020 by krista4

[Gawain 2,246]

3 minutes ago, ShamrockPride said:

Seriously. He may even be 5th. Looks like Bern, Pete, Amy, and Liz are all consistently ahead of him.

I'm pulling for Bernie, but easy to forget that we're only getting a small segment televised:
 

Quote

Not viable at this location were: Andrew Yang, who got support from six people; Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., who got support from 11 people, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who got support from 14 people. Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., who dropped out of the race, got the support of two people.

The candidates who surpassed the viability threshold in the first alignment were: Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who got the support of 20 people; former Vice President Joe Biden, who got the support of 21 people; and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who got the support of 20 people.

Dallas County

[SaintsInDome2006 47,477]

Lol this #### is completely nuts. What is going on?

[AAABatteries 24,732]

1 minute ago, Gawain said:

I'm pulling for Bernie, but easy to forget that we're only getting a small segment televised:
 

Dallas County

Agree - I'm not saying Biden won't do well, just what they are showing hasn't been favorable for him so far.

[SaintsInDome2006 47,477]

7 minutes ago, caustic said:

This is such a strange process.

I have no idea what’s happening.

[Dinsy Ejotuz 12,980]

2 minutes ago, krista4 said:

:anyonenotbidendot:

A candidate that bases his whole campaign on being electable and beating Trump and finishes fourth is so toast.  Not very many people want Biden absent some electoral advantage in the general.

[MAC_32 12,493]

PSA- early reports are often wrong. Be patient before assessing anything. 

[BassNBrew 11,098]

Sanders supporters not showing up based on these polls.

[SaintsInDome2006 47,477]

CNN: who’s winning the O’Malley 2016 vote?

Edited February 4, 2020 by SaintsInDome2006

[caustic 3,899]

Who takes time out of their night to come sit in the "uncommitted" circle for an hour?

[AAABatteries 24,732]

Just now, MAC_32 said:

PSA- early reports are often wrong. Be patient before assessing anything. 

I'd rather overreact and then disappear.

[NorvilleBarnes 3,830]

NPR calling the GOP caucus for Trump.

[SaintsInDome2006 47,477]

I could see how buying votes with pie could happen here.

[Mister CIA 8,335]

2 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

3 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

PSA- early reports are often wrong. Be patient before assessing anything. 

I'd rather overreact and then disappear.

Premature caucus projection sounds kind of dirty.

[BassNBrew 11,098]

Just now, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I could see how buying votes with pie could happen here.

yeah...wild the unviables can combined and vote for a single unviable.

[Jackstraw 4,381]

I was a caucus worker in Kansas in 2016. I’d eliminate them if it was up to me. 

[krista4 24,742]

3 minutes ago, caustic said:

Who takes time out of their night to come sit in the "uncommitted" circle for an hour?

I went to the caucus in WA in 2016.  Found it completely fascinating, but I might be a dork.  Highly recommend to anyone in a caucus state. 

[ShamrockPride 5,346]

Just now, Jackstraw said:

I was a caucus worker in Kansas in 2016. I’d eliminate them if it was up to me. 

Although at least in Iowa, highly accurate for the ultimate nominee. MSNBC says Iowa has picked the eventual nominee 100% of the time since 2000.

[Maurile Tremblay 22,483]

Have scientists done any studies about why Iowa is so boring? I'm generally pretty interested in political stuff, but I can't bring myself to care about tonight's Iowa results at all.

[ShamrockPride 5,346]

Just now, Maurile Tremblay said:

Have scientists done any studies about why Iowa is so boring? I'm generally pretty interested in political stuff, but I can't bring myself to care about tonight's Iowa results at all.

Idk, this whole caucus thing is pretty wild man. Very interesting.

[NorvilleBarnes 3,830]

3 minutes ago, ShamrockPride said:

Although at least in Iowa, highly accurate for the ultimate nominee. MSNBC says Iowa has picked the eventual nominee 100% of the time since 2000.

Was going to make a joke but that's actually pretty impressive for going first.

[SaintsInDome2006 47,477]

I’ve decided I’m going to choose whom to vote for based on superficial character judgements of people that Tapper is walking up to.

[TheMagus 1,925]

17 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

I’m watching the panel discussion now and they’re all speaking positively about Sanders.

 I've been listening to CNN on and off all day and they have been talking about him constantly. 

[Getzlaf15 10,902]

after seeing this, I'm glad California isn't going first

[AAABatteries 24,732]

I'm here for the YangBang

[huthut 1,540]

Wish I lived in a caucus state. Ideal result from Iowa would be showing that Biden is not viable. We don't need two candidates with dementia debating each other.

Edited February 4, 2020 by huthut

[NorvilleBarnes 3,830]

4 minutes ago, huthut said:

Wish I lived in a caucus state. Ideal result from Iowa would be showing that Biden is not viable. 

What would it take to show he's not viable?

[Drunken Cowboy 1,417]

CNN is covering mostly college locations. These results are not going to be reflective of the rest of the state.

[huthut 1,540]

 

3 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

What would it take to show he's not viable?

Probably nothing from a single state, but a 4th or lower place finish would be fairly convincing.

[AAABatteries 24,732]

31 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Entrance polls are showing very well for Biden.  30% of the people are over 65% and Biden is crushing that group.

Where the hell are these people - is it so late that they all fell asleep or went home?

[Getzlaf15 10,902]

Just now, AAABatteries said:

Where the hell are these people - is it so late that they all fell asleep or went home?

wake up Joe!