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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (1 Viewer)

Capella said:
What is his route to winning? He’s getting in too late. 
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I know.  But he would have the best chance in Nov imo.  

This crop of Dems won’t get it done in swing states.  

 
IMO it looks like the Patrick delegates should’ve gone to Bernie and the Steyer delegates should’ve gone to Warren. Someone was off a line. 

 
AAABatteries said:
It seems undeniable at this point that Bernie will win the popular vote - I wonder if those who like to point out Hillary’s popular vote “win” will do the same for Bernie.
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For popular vote do you look at First Round or Final Round?  Not that it really matters but Pete just overtook Bernie in the Final Round popular vote. 

Am I correct that that tells us that Pete is more peoples 2nd choice than Bernie - generally speaking?  That wouldn't be a surprise but just making sure I understand the implication.

 
Kyle Kulinski Twitter:

So Iowa Dems get caught undercutting Bernie in Black Hawk county and we only know because Black Hawk county released their info on their own? And now Iowa Dems are forced to fix. This is out of this world.

 
The crazy thing to me is they're not actually "counting votes". All that was done, in person, as people were moving around their caucus sites. There is absolutely NO reason it should be taking this long.

 
Cohn saying that with the last batch of results, Sanders has exhausted his areas of strength and Pete is likely to win. The national delegate count will be close--either a tie or a one-delegate lead for Pete.

First alignment: likely Sanders

Final alignment: tossup

SDEs: likely Pete

 
NorvilleBarnes said:
The crazy thing to me is they're not actually "counting votes". All that was done, in person, as people were moving around their caucus sites. There is absolutely NO reason it should be taking this long.
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Exactly. The Polk county chairman earlier today was wondering why they only released partial results of the county when they turned in all the results Monday night. 

 
ShamrockPride said:
Kyle Kulinski Twitter:

So Iowa Dems get caught undercutting Bernie in Black Hawk county and we only know because Black Hawk county released their info on their own? And now Iowa Dems are forced to fix. This is out of this world.
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They shortchanged him by about 500 votes in Black Hawk county.  How do we know they didn't do this in every county?  What a blatant sham.  

 
AAABatteries said:
For popular vote do you look at First Round or Final Round?  Not that it really matters but Pete just overtook Bernie in the Final Round popular vote. 

Am I correct that that tells us that Pete is more peoples 2nd choice than Bernie - generally speaking?  That wouldn't be a surprise but just making sure I understand the implication.
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I don’t see how the results of the first round means anything except it gives the candidates some insight into how they rank relative to the others. The only result that needs to be released is the second round results and the resulting number of delegates awarded.

 
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Phil Elliott said:
I don’t see how the results of the first round means anything except it gives the candidates some insight into how they rank relative to the others. 
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Two things off the top of my head. First it demonstrates if a candidate was close to viability but fell short. For example, getting 14% in many counties is still the same as zero but at least says something about the candidates support. Second, it helps show where that support went. It's virtually impossible to (accurately) predict but in this case we have "actuals" to look at. The difference between 1st round and final is absolutely fascinating (to me, but I'm not well) and infinitely more informative than any pundit prediction.

 
We really overrate the idea of “winning” these caucuses and primaries.  Winners don’t take all delegates.  If you only win by a percent or two, it hardly makes a difference other than for bragging rights.

 
Juxtatarot said:
We really overrate the idea of “winning” these caucuses and primaries.  Winners don’t take all delegates.  If you only win by a percent or two, it hardly makes a difference other than for bragging rights.
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At this point it's all but assured they end with the same amount of delegates pretty much right? No more than a difference of 1. Or idk how it works out after final results/percentages are calculated.

 
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Juxtatarot said:
We really overrate the idea of “winning” these caucuses and primaries.  Winners don’t take all delegates.  If you only win by a percent or two, it hardly makes a difference other than for bragging rights.
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I think the messaging is important for the underdogs but I agree it's probably overrated.  It's kind of a dead heat at this point and it doesn't really matter.  If Bernie does well in NH and Nevada then he'll be looking good.  The question is if Pete can stay ahead of Biden and then get more h2h with Bernie.  In the last month alone I've probably thought any of the top 4 was going to be the D nominee.  I really have no clue at this point - I think a decent argument could be made for any of them although it's looking more and more like Warren torpedoed herself with the Bernie attack.  She's fallen off a cliff since then somewhat.

 
AAABatteries said:
I think the messaging is important for the underdogs but I agree it's probably overrated.  It's kind of a dead heat at this point and it doesn't really matter.  If Bernie does well in NH and Nevada then he'll be looking good.  The question is if Pete can stay ahead of Biden and then get more h2h with Bernie.  In the last month alone I've probably thought any of the top 4 was going to be the D nominee.  I really have no clue at this point - I think a decent argument could be made for any of them although it's looking more and more like Warren torpedoed herself with the Bernie attack.  She's fallen off a cliff since then somewhat.
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Liz's entire campaign seems to be a series of own goals. 

 
AAABatteries said:
I think the messaging is important for the underdogs but I agree it's probably overrated.  It's kind of a dead heat at this point and it doesn't really matter.  If Bernie does well in NH and Nevada then he'll be looking good.  The question is if Pete can stay ahead of Biden and then get more h2h with Bernie.  In the last month alone I've probably thought any of the top 4 was going to be the D nominee.  I really have no clue at this point - I think a decent argument could be made for any of them although it's looking more and more like Warren torpedoed herself with the Bernie attack.  She's fallen off a cliff since then somewhat.
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The trouble is obviously the sooner Liz drops the better but I think she's been effective in permanently splitting that progressive vote for a lot of people. I'm not sure how much of her 15-18% will turn back to Bern when she drops. I feel it may not be that much.

 
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