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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (2 Viewers)

bigmarc27 said:
This is bad for Bernie, right?  Shouldn’t Sanders be pulling way more than 28% in NH. This reads to me like moderate Dems are out in force. 
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Nate Silver just tweeted that this is shaping up to be an awfully nice night for Bernie. He didn't say why, but I'm guessing it's because the two moderates gaining momentum here are the two with zero support from minority voters. 

 
caustic said:
Nate Silver just tweeted that this is shaping up to be an awfully nice night for Bernie. He didn't say why, but I'm guessing it's because the two moderates gaining momentum here are the two with zero support from minority voters. 
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Yep, and Warren appears to be toast.  She's under 10% and her home state borders NH.

 
caustic said:
Nate Silver just tweeted that this is shaping up to be an awfully nice night for Bernie. He didn't say why, but I'm guessing it's because the two moderates gaining momentum here are the two with zero support from minority voters. 
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Yep - there's still some big question marks about Pete and Amy with minorities.  I'm happy though because my top 3 candidates are Bernie, Pete and Amy.  Time for Steyer, Bennett and Gabbard to follow Yang out the door.

 
ShamrockPride said:
Nobody is going to be pulling away with 5 major candidates still.
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Yeah but if things continue in this route, none of the Steyer, Biden, Yang, etc... people are going to Bernie.  I’m not totally sure he’d sweep the Warren people considering their exchange after the debate a few weeks back. 

 
LOL at 32% of the votes being counted, 37 minutes after the closing time.

 
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bigmarc27 said:
Yeah but if things continue in this route, none of the Steyer, Biden, Yang, etc... people are going to Bernie.  I’m not totally sure he’d sweep the Warren people considering their exchange after the debate a few weeks back. 
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According to today's Morning Consult national poll, a plurality of Biden supporters list Bernie as their second choice.

 
bigmarc27 said:
Yeah but if things continue in this route, none of the Steyer, Biden, Yang, etc... people are going to Bernie.  I’m not totally sure he’d sweep the Warren people considering their exchange after the debate a few weeks back. 
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I'm not sure what Steyer fans are looking for but I could see Yang supporters going to Bernie, especially if it's younger people.  I get the impression that Biden supporters will vote for whoever the DNC pushes.

 
bigmarc27 said:
Yeah but if things continue in this route, none of the Steyer, Biden, Yang, etc... people are going to Bernie.  I’m not totally sure he’d sweep the Warren people considering their exchange after the debate a few weeks back. 
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Totally agree. I said last week I felt that whole private convo thing was a final straw and a permanent schism between those two bases. Some will go back, but it will be significantly fewer than if it hadn't happened.

 
caustic said:
According to today's Morning Consult national poll, a plurality of Biden supporters list Bernie as their second choice.
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This kind of thing is why you really can't just add up the "progressive" numbers and the "moderate" voters and compare them when there are so many people. Too hard to predict how things change as the choices disappear.

 
AAABatteries said:
I'm not sure what Steyer fans are looking for but I could see Yang supporters going to Bernie, especially if it's younger people.  I get the impression that Biden supporters will vote for whoever the DNC pushes.
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Maybe so.  DNC will push a moderate. They want to win and they’re not going to hitch their wagon to a guy who’s nearly 80 and just had a heart attack.  

 
KingPrawn said:
Moderates like Amy, Mayor Pete, Biden and Bloomberg will continue to split that vote. Bernie's more progressive opponent Warren is having a very bad night.
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The thing Bernie should be concerned about is that Warren’s bad night isn’t resulting in a bigger lead for him. Them only combining for 40% in a neighboring state isn’t great.

 
Here are Morning Consult's second-choice numbers for the top 5 candidates:

Code: 
SANDERS SUPPORTERS
Warren 29%
Biden 23%
Yang 12%

BIDEN SUPPORTERS
Sanders 28%
Bloomberg 23%
Warren 16%

BLOOMBERG SUPPORTERS
Biden 30%
Sanders 17%
Buttigieg 17%
Warren 12%

BUTTIGIEG SUPPORTERS
Bloomberg 20%
Biden 19%
Sanders 17%
Warren 17%

WARREN SUPPORTERS
Sanders 35%
Biden 17%
Buttigieg 14%

 
Shula-holic said:
This was the error establishment Republicans made about the "anti-Trump" vote in the 2016 primaries.
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I think that's why there were folks who wanted to vote for Bernie but then voted for Trump.  They just showed the non-college degree white voting and it went heavily for Bernie - I think Bernie and Trump appeal to similar people - ones who hate politicians and see them all as weasels.  They just want something different.

 
Biff84 said:
The thing Bernie should be concerned about is that Warren’s bad night isn’t resulting in a bigger lead for him. Them only combining for 40% in a neighboring state isn’t great.
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Kornacki just showed exit poll data stating 51% of those who said they were undecided last week went Pete or Amy. Bernie only got 16. The undecided pool reportedly represented half of the vote. 

 
MAC_32 said:
Kornacki just showed exit poll data stating 51% of those who said they were undecided last week went Pete or Amy. Bernie only got 16. The undecided pool reportedly represented half of the vote. 
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Makes sense. Sanders is a pretty known quantity at this point, the other two have been relatively obscure. Someone undecided at this point had already figured out Bernie wasn't their first choice, but not necessarily who their first choice was.

 
AAABatteries said:
I think that's why there were folks who wanted to vote for Bernie but then voted for Trump.  They just showed the non-college degree white voting and it went heavily for Bernie - I think Bernie and Trump appeal to similar people - ones who hate politicians and see them all as weasels.  They just want something different.
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And that's also why I think it may be a mistake for the GOP to push Bernie - I could see folks being just as surprised about President Sanders as folks were about waking up to a President Trump.

One of the CNN folks pointed out that if you just listed the things Bernie has going for him that if it were any other candidate the DNC would declare the race over.  Does incredible with young people, popular with minorities and has an unbelievable ground game and small donors.

 
NorvilleBarnes said:
Going WAY out on a limb here and predicting the other candidates will be singing Yangs praises tonight.
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From Mayor Pete:

.

@AndrewYang  started out unknown, but went on to make a big impact with his campaign built on preparing for America’s future. Andrew, we’ll miss you and the #YangGang on the trail, but I can’t wait to work together to help prepare America for the challenges ahead.

 
I can sort of understand dropping out at this point if you were low single digits, but otherwise I'd be trying to hang on through super Tuesday at least. I don't think any of these early primaries build a solid narrative (unless someone somehow sweeps).

 
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NorvilleBarnes said:
From Mayor Pete:

.

@AndrewYang  started out unknown, but went on to make a big impact with his campaign built on preparing for America’s future. Andrew, we’ll miss you and the #YangGang on the trail, but I can’t wait to work together to help prepare America for the challenges ahead.
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Begging for an endorsement.

 
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