***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee

[KingPrawn 1,664]

5 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Going WAY out on a limb here and predicting the other candidates will be singing Yangs praises tonight.

Will they be chasing his 1% of the vote?

[Maurile Tremblay 22,270]

Is there a Republican primary thread? Bill Weld is at 12% of the votes so far.

[NorvilleBarnes 3,728]

Just now, KingPrawn said:

Will they be chasing his 1% of the vote?

Probably not Biden, but the others yes.

[AAABatteries 24,445]

2 minutes ago, caustic said:

Nate Silver just tweeted that this is shaping up to be an awfully nice night for Bernie. He didn't say why, but I'm guessing it's because the two moderates gaining momentum here are the two with zero support from minority voters. 

Yep - there's still some big question marks about Pete and Amy with minorities.  I'm happy though because my top 3 candidates are Bernie, Pete and Amy.  Time for Steyer, Bennett and Gabbard to follow Yang out the door.

[KingPrawn 1,664]

1 minute ago, Shula-holic said:

Yep, and Warren appears to be toast.  She's under 10% and her home state borders NH.

Moderates like Amy, Mayor Pete, Biden and Bloomberg will continue to split that vote. Bernie's more progressive opponent Warren is having a very bad night.

[hagmania 8,792]

7 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Is there a Republican primary thread? Bill Weld is at 12% of the votes so far.

holy balls

[Gopher State 959]

Yang gang retired

[bigmarc27 4,162]

9 minutes ago, ShamrockPride said:

Nobody is going to be pulling away with 5 major candidates still.

Yeah but if things continue in this route, none of the Steyer, Biden, Yang, etc... people are going to Bernie.  I’m not totally sure he’d sweep the Warren people considering their exchange after the debate a few weeks back. 

[caustic 3,736]

Michael Bennet will be suspending his campaign tonight. I imagine the remaining candidates will be scrambling to win over his supporters.

[Getzlaf15 10,809]

LOL at 32% of the votes being counted, 37 minutes after the closing time.

Edited February 12, 2020 by Getzlaf15

[caustic 3,736]

Just now, bigmarc27 said:

Yeah but if things continue in this route, none of the Steyer, Biden, Yang, etc... people are going to Bernie.  I’m not totally sure he’d sweep the Warren people considering their exchange after the debate a few weeks back. 

According to today's Morning Consult national poll, a plurality of Biden supporters list Bernie as their second choice.

[KingPrawn 1,664]

Just now, Getzlaf15 said:

LOL at 32% of the votes have been counted 37 minutes after the closing time.

Is Iowa still counting?

[AAABatteries 24,445]

2 minutes ago, bigmarc27 said:

Yeah but if things continue in this route, none of the Steyer, Biden, Yang, etc... people are going to Bernie.  I’m not totally sure he’d sweep the Warren people considering their exchange after the debate a few weeks back. 

I'm not sure what Steyer fans are looking for but I could see Yang supporters going to Bernie, especially if it's younger people.  I get the impression that Biden supporters will vote for whoever the DNC pushes.

[NorvilleBarnes 3,728]

Bennet dropping out.

In other news, Bennet was still running.

[ShamrockPride 5,293]

3 minutes ago, bigmarc27 said:

Yeah but if things continue in this route, none of the Steyer, Biden, Yang, etc... people are going to Bernie.  I’m not totally sure he’d sweep the Warren people considering their exchange after the debate a few weeks back. 

Totally agree. I said last week I felt that whole private convo thing was a final straw and a permanent schism between those two bases. Some will go back, but it will be significantly fewer than if it hadn't happened.

[mcintyre1 3,294]

1 minute ago, caustic said:

According to today's Morning Consult national poll, a plurality of Biden supporters list Bernie as their second choice.

This kind of thing is why you really can't just add up the "progressive" numbers and the "moderate" voters and compare them when there are so many people. Too hard to predict how things change as the choices disappear.

[bigmarc27 4,162]

2 minutes ago, caustic said:

According to today's Morning Consult national poll, a plurality of Biden supporters list Bernie as their second choice.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

[bigmarc27 4,162]

2 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I'm not sure what Steyer fans are looking for but I could see Yang supporters going to Bernie, especially if it's younger people.  I get the impression that Biden supporters will vote for whoever the DNC pushes.

Maybe so.  DNC will push a moderate. They want to win and they’re not going to hitch their wagon to a guy who’s nearly 80 and just had a heart attack.  

[The General 24,238]

There goes Yang and my grand a month. 

I do hope the guy sticks in the game and advocates for something. He’ll more likely go make a boatload of money somewhere doing smart stuff. 

[Biff84 2,788]

13 minutes ago, KingPrawn said:

Moderates like Amy, Mayor Pete, Biden and Bloomberg will continue to split that vote. Bernie's more progressive opponent Warren is having a very bad night.

The thing Bernie should be concerned about is that Warren’s bad night isn’t resulting in a bigger lead for him. Them only combining for 40% in a neighboring state isn’t great.

[beef 2,491]

1 minute ago, The General said:

There goes Yang and my grand a month. 

I do hope the guy sticks in the game and advocates for something. He’ll more likely go make a boatload of money somewhere doing smart stuff. 

I'd absolutely find him a role in my admin.  

[Shula-holic 2,216]

6 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

This kind of thing is why you really can't just add up the "progressive" numbers and the "moderate" voters and compare them when there are so many people. Too hard to predict how things change as the choices disappear.

This was the error establishment Republicans made about the "anti-Trump" vote in the 2016 primaries.

[Maurile Tremblay 22,270]

9 minutes ago, caustic said:

According to today's Morning Consult national poll, a plurality of Biden supporters list Bernie as their second choice.

Most of those people also listed him as their first choice.

[caustic 3,736]

Here are Morning Consult's second-choice numbers for the top 5 candidates:

SANDERS SUPPORTERS
Warren 29%
Biden 23%
Yang 12%

BIDEN SUPPORTERS
Sanders 28%
Bloomberg 23%
Warren 16%

BLOOMBERG SUPPORTERS
Biden 30%
Sanders 17%
Buttigieg 17%
Warren 12%

BUTTIGIEG SUPPORTERS
Bloomberg 20%
Biden 19%
Sanders 17%
Warren 17%

WARREN SUPPORTERS
Sanders 35%
Biden 17%
Buttigieg 14%

 

[NorvilleBarnes 3,728]

Biden to speak from SC

He's not dropping out

[AAABatteries 24,445]

1 minute ago, Shula-holic said:

This was the error establishment Republicans made about the "anti-Trump" vote in the 2016 primaries.

I think that's why there were folks who wanted to vote for Bernie but then voted for Trump.  They just showed the non-college degree white voting and it went heavily for Bernie - I think Bernie and Trump appeal to similar people - ones who hate politicians and see them all as weasels.  They just want something different.

[MAC_32 12,077]

2 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

The thing Bernie should be concerned about is that Warren’s bad night isn’t resulting in a bigger lead for him. Them only combining for 40% in a neighboring state isn’t great.

Kornacki just showed exit poll data stating 51% of those who said they were undecided last week went Pete or Amy. Bernie only got 16. The undecided pool reportedly represented half of the vote. 

[Gr00vus 11,826]

1 minute ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Biden to speak from SC

He's not dropping out

Oh, he is, he just doesn't know it yet.

[Phil Elliott 1,114]

MSNBC saying Warren and Biden won’t get any delegates.

[Gr00vus 11,826]

1 minute ago, MAC_32 said:

Kornacki just showed exit poll data stating 51% of those who said they were undecided last week went Pete or Amy. Bernie only got 16. The undecided pool reportedly represented half of the vote. 

Makes sense. Sanders is a pretty known quantity at this point, the other two have been relatively obscure. Someone undecided at this point had already figured out Bernie wasn't their first choice, but not necessarily who their first choice was.

[AAABatteries 24,445]

1 minute ago, AAABatteries said:

I think that's why there were folks who wanted to vote for Bernie but then voted for Trump.  They just showed the non-college degree white voting and it went heavily for Bernie - I think Bernie and Trump appeal to similar people - ones who hate politicians and see them all as weasels.  They just want something different.

And that's also why I think it may be a mistake for the GOP to push Bernie - I could see folks being just as surprised about President Sanders as folks were about waking up to a President Trump.

One of the CNN folks pointed out that if you just listed the things Bernie has going for him that if it were any other candidate the DNC would declare the race over.  Does incredible with young people, popular with minorities and has an unbelievable ground game and small donors.

[Phil Elliott 1,114]

Looks like a three horse race.

[Smack Tripper 2,748]

1 minute ago, caustic said:

Steyer is suspending his campaign as well. Dropping like flies now.

Why now, he was was supposed to be doing good in SC

[AAABatteries 24,445]

Just now, Smack Tripper said:

Why now, he was was supposed to be doing good in SC

He ran out of argyle ties.

[McBokonon 2,881]

Just now, Phil Elliott said:

Looks like a three horse race.

Bloomberg lurks. Warren should drop out now for the good of the party. Peter can quit after the next couple states.

[MAC_32 12,077]

1 minute ago, Phil Elliott said:

Looks like a three horse race.

And Bloomberg.

[McBokonon 2,881]

4 minutes ago, caustic said:

Steyer is suspending his campaign as well. Dropping like flies now.

I’m seeing this isn’t true and the campaign is denying it.

[AAABatteries 24,445]

Warren almost sounds like she's dropping out.  She's giving the unity speech.

[ShamrockPride 5,293]

2 minutes ago, Smack Tripper said:

Why now, he was was supposed to be doing good in SC

Some polls had him in 2nd 😳

[caustic 3,736]

1 minute ago, McBokonon said:

I’m seeing this isn’t true and the campaign is denying it.

Thanks - unfollowing the person who tweeted that. 

[NorvilleBarnes 3,728]

40 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Going WAY out on a limb here and predicting the other candidates will be singing Yangs praises tonight.

From Mayor Pete:

.

@AndrewYang  started out unknown, but went on to make a big impact with his campaign built on preparing for America’s future. Andrew, we’ll miss you and the #YangGang on the trail, but I can’t wait to work together to help prepare America for the challenges ahead.

[Gr00vus 11,826]

I can sort of understand dropping out at this point if you were low single digits, but otherwise I'd be trying to hang on through super Tuesday at least. I don't think any of these early primaries build a solid narrative (unless someone somehow sweeps).

Edited February 12, 2020 by Gr00vus

[Phil Elliott 1,114]

3 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

Bloomberg lurks. Warren should drop out now for the good of the party. Peter can quit after the next couple states.

For NH its only Bernie,Pete and Amy. And we probably all could pick the trifecta.

[ShamrockPride 5,293]

1 minute ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

From Mayor Pete:

.

@AndrewYang  started out unknown, but went on to make a big impact with his campaign built on preparing for America’s future. Andrew, we’ll miss you and the #YangGang on the trail, but I can’t wait to work together to help prepare America for the challenges ahead.

Begging for an endorsement.

[Marauder 462]

No way Steyer would be dropping out now.   NV and SC are where he's been spending most of his money.

[caustic 3,736]

Pete is inching closer, Bernie's 5-6 point lead is down to 3.5.

[Phil Elliott 1,114]

6 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

And Bloomberg.

Tonight its just three.

[PhantomJB 657]

4 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

Warren almost sounds like she's dropping out.  She's giving the unity speech.

From Warren's speech...may be a potential harbinger of a future endorsement.

“Amy and I are the only candidates in this race who are not either billionaires or supported by Super PACs,” Warren said of she and Klobuchar.  

[AAABatteries 24,445]

I said before but if Warren drops out and Bloomberg swoops in then that's a scenario that is really good for Bernie.  If it gets to the convention and Bernie has like 35% of the delegates and Pete, Amy and Bloomberg are at like 20% each it may be party suicide for Bernie to not get the nomination.  Hopefully more nominees follow Warren's lead and push for unity.

[cap'n grunge 7,632]

51 minutes ago, bigmarc27 said:

I should add that I’d have a political boner for a Pete/Amy ticket. 

This. Please.