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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (3 Viewers)

krista4 said:
This seems logical but doesn't seem to be the way the polling has gone, in terms of people's second choices.  That's been really wacky when you look at it.  I guess people are aligning themselves more by personalities than ideals.  And if Warren dropped out and decided to throw herself behind Klobuchar, for instance, then it would really be interesting.

I do wish we could get down to one progressive candidate (Bernie) and one more center-progressive (Klobuchar or Pete) AND one self financed Billionaire Republican, so we could see where the voters really want to be.
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Small addition.

 
Daywalker said:
 Bernie policies may scare people but he is by far the best person opposite Trump on stage.  He wont get flustered and comes off as serious.
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I know nothing about politics, but I'd much rather put my faith in independents and suburban moms who voted convincingly for democrats in 2018 then in a bunch of 20 year olds hoping they decide to show up to vote b/c we're gonna need an awful lot of them if bernie is the nominee.  

 
Sanders looks like he'll get the most votes in the first 3 states and if Biden continues his free fall he could very well win South Carolina.  Impressive.

 
NutterButter said:
I know nothing about politics, but I'd much rather put my faith in independents and suburban moms who voted convincingly for democrats in 2018 then in a bunch of 20 year olds hoping they decide to show up to vote b/c we're gonna need an awful lot of them if bernie is the nominee.  
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I think you underestimate Bernie's appeal.  Explain to me why poor people in swing states wouldn't vote for Bernie - what policies exactly is he pushing that they are opposed to?

 
NutterButter said:
I know nothing about politics, but I'd much rather put my faith in independents and suburban moms who voted convincingly for democrats in 2018 then in a bunch of 20 year olds hoping they decide to show up to vote b/c we're gonna need an awful lot of them if bernie is the nominee.  
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:no:

Played that game in 2016.  

 
AAABatteries said:
I think you underestimate Bernie's appeal.  Explain to me why poor people in swing states wouldn't vote for Bernie - what policies exactly is he pushing that they are opposed to?
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They will but will enough of them turnout.     People that are poor don't vote nearly as much as people that have money.   

 
Democrats would greatly increase their chances of beating Trump if they brought up that he cheated with a pornstar while his wife was giving birth.

It should me mentioned in every interview.  A top 3 talking point.

It is a layup.  Puts Trump on his heels.  How does he even respond?  “Well she wasnt giving birth you liar.  She was home with my son.”

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
According to electionbettingodds.com:

Biggest winners:
Buttigieg +3.3%
Klobuchar +1.7%
Bloomberg +1.2%

Biggest losers:
Biden -2.5%
Warren -2.5%
Sanders -2.2%
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They know a lot more about it than me but I don't see how all 3 of the leading centrist candidates (if you like Bloomberg over Biden) get a bump but Sanders doesn't.  Maybe the expectation was Sanders would win big or maybe the assumption is there's no way Bernie wins a contested convention.  Either way, to me, winning the first 3 states - which seems likely - will snowball his support.

 
During the debates, every answer should begin with, “I never cheated on my wife while she was taking care of my son but i do know this.”

Make it the farce that it is.

i would stop the debate and ask Trump if he is allowed to run charities in New York.

Take control.

 
Can someone also explain to me how African Americans are the most sophisticated voting bloc, per msnbc, but if they dont get their candidate they might not vote?

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
According to electionbettingodds.com:

Biggest winners:
Buttigieg +3.3%
Klobuchar +1.7%
Bloomberg +1.2%

Biggest losers:
Biden -2.5%
Warren -2.5%
Sanders -2.2%
Click to expand...
I think the Sanders drop is not just the underperforming of the polls, but that there is a crowded field still.  Given all Democratic primaries are proportional and not winner take all, if this field keeps the top 4 or 5 in til Super Tuesday it almost guarantees nobody is winning the majority of delegates, only a plurality.  Let's say Bernie has 30% of the delegates and the lead in a plurality, where does he get the other 20%?  Keep in mind who these delegates are, typically party insiders and donors if I'm not mistaken.  Would they vote for him over someone who actually is a Democrat?  It could be one hell of a mess.  For the record, both Bernie and Pete got 9 delegates tonight and Amy 6.  Buttigieg leads in the delegate race tonight.

 
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AAABatteries said:
They know a lot more about it than me but I don't see how all 3 of the leading centrist candidates (if you like Bloomberg over Biden) get a bump but Sanders doesn't.  Maybe the expectation was Sanders would win big or maybe the assumption is there's no way Bernie wins a contested convention.  Either way, to me, winning the first 3 states - which seems likely - will snowball his support.
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I do agree that Bernie isn't going away but there's so many unknowns right now.    How will Pete do with non-whites?   Is Klobuchar for real?  What does Bloomie do if he strikes out on super tuesday since he's putting so much into it?   Which way will the 30% that support someone not named Bernie, Pete or Amy go?  I'm not entirely sure how a contested convention works.  Isn't it like rank choice voting by the delegates?  If it comes down to Bernie with a small lead and Klobucher and Pete splitting the rest come convention time doesn't that favor one of the moderates since they'll just vote for each other in the first two rounds and the Bernie delegates will have to vote for one of the moderates as well in the 2nd.   

 
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NutterButter said:
I do agree that Bernie isn't going away but there's so many unknowns right now.    How will Pete do with non-whites?   Is Klobuchar for real?  What does Bloomie do if he strikes out on super tuesday since he's putting so much into it?   Which way will the 30% that support someone not named Bernie, Pete or Amy?  I'm not entirely sure how a contested convention works.  Isn't it like rank choice voting by the delegates?  If it comes down to Bernie with a small lead and Klobucher and Pete splitting the rest come convention time doesn't that favor one of the moderates since they'll just vote for each other in the first two rounds and the Bernie delegates will have to vote for one of the moderates as well in the 2nd.   
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If anyone goes into the convention with the most delegates and does not emerge as the presidential nominee, people will flat out not vote in November. No matter which candidate gets the shaft. November is lost 100000000% if this happens imo.

 
urbanhack said:
Oh ...hey..who’s been hyping low voter turnout??

With 87% counted, turnout in the NH Dem primary has passed the 2016 level and is on track to come close to the 2008 level and possibly surpass it
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But how is it looking compared to 2018?   That's what the dems are hoping to achieve.   2008 had to have been a banner year.

 
hagmania said:
If anyone goes into the convention with the most delegates and does not emerge as the presidential nominee, people will flat out not vote in November. No matter which candidate gets the shaft. November is lost 100000000% if this happens imo.
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That was what CNN just implied too.  If that really is true (and I'm not convinced it is) then that makes Bernie's prospects even that much better, IMO.

 
“I believe in free birth control for all woman.  Donald did you use protection when you were cheating on your wife with a porn star?  Were you worried about transmitting a disease to her and maybe you newborn son?”

Dirty?  It happened.  This guy running the show.

 
Daywalker said:
“I believe in free birth control for all woman.  Donald did you use protection when you were cheating on your wife with a porn star?  Were you worried about transmitting a disease to her and maybe you newborn son?”

Dirty?  It happened.  This guy running the show.
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Take it to the Trump thread or better yet, start a new one.  This thread is about the race to represent the Democratic party

 
AAABatteries said:
That was what CNN just implied too.  If that really is true (and I'm not convinced it is) then that makes Bernie's prospects even that much better, IMO.
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I'm debating whether I would. I would be beyond furious, even if the potential nominee is not the same as who I voted for in the primary.

 
hagmania said:
If anyone goes into the convention with the most delegates and does not emerge as the presidential nominee, people will flat out not vote in November. No matter which candidate gets the shaft. November is lost 100000000% if this happens imo.
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I think that only applies to some Bernie supporters and if it happens it happens.   Moderates are lot more pragmatic.   The objective is still to beat the donald.  I love the Bern but hate a lot of his policies and I hope to all hell he's not the nominee, but I'd vote for him in a heart beat over trump. 

 
NutterButter said:
I know nothing about politics, but I'd much rather put my faith in independents and suburban moms who voted convincingly for democrats in 2018 then in a bunch of 20 year olds hoping they decide to show up to vote b/c we're gonna need an awful lot of them if bernie is the nominee.  
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Particularly in 2020 with legal weed everywhere. 

 
NutterButter said:
I think that only applies to some Bernie supporters and if it happens it happens.   Moderates are lot more pragmatic.   The objective is still to beat the donald.  I love the Bern but hate a lot of his policies and I hope to all hell he's not the nominee, but I'd vote for him in a heart beat over trump. 
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You don't think the young Pete voters would revolt if he goes into the convention with a plurality but does not get the nomination?

 
hagmania said:
I'm debating whether I would. I would be beyond furious, even if the potential nominee is not the same as who I voted for in the primary.
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I would be beyond furious at any Democrat staying home in 2020 and giving Trump a chance to remain in office.

Look, even if Bernie wins, most of his progressive agenda has no chance of being enacted.

The patient just got brought into the ER and has massive internal injuries. Priority one is to stop the bleeding and save their life. They don't need a boob job at this time. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good.

Vote blue no matter who.

 
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