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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee


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The Republicans are going to paint every Democrat candidate as a wild out of control socialist. Pete, Amy, Warren, doesn't matter.  They ran with that against Obama for 8 years and he started every ne

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Fast  forward to a little over 6 months from now and a bunch of you are going to be scratching your heads as Trump gets another 4 years in office, wondering how Biden lost. Then you'll somehow blame t

1 minute ago, Maurile Tremblay said:
3 minutes ago, toshiba said:
5 minutes ago, NutterButter said:

Great nights for both Buttigieg and Klobucher.   Keeping the momentum going.   

And Sanders

It's never bad to win. But I'd say that Buttigieg and Klobuchar outperformed expectations, while Sanders underperformed them a bit.

Check out 538, Sanders was right where he was expected to be.

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1 minute ago, mcintyre1 said:

Decision Desk HQ has all three of those in already, Pete won Hanover by 5.5% (but only gained 170 total votes on Sanders), Sanders won the other two. Derry by 2.5% (about 150 vote lead) and Durham by 11% (about 540 vote lead).

That's a wrap.

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Honestly, I think Bloomberg had the best night. 538 will peg the chance of a contested convention around 27% tomorrow. No one has consolidated as the center-left candidate. Warren's not getting out of the race, so support isn't consolidating behind Bernie. Biden's not getting out, so will likely pull delegates in SC at least.

The way to get Bloomberg out is to have two viable candidates by Super Tuesday. That doesn't look to be happening.
If we have six viable candidates on Super Tuesday, there's going to be some major math problems getting anyone to 1991 come March 4th.

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3 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:
4 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

Decision Desk HQ has all three of those in already, Pete won Hanover by 5.5% (but only gained 170 total votes on Sanders), Sanders won the other two. Derry by 2.5% (about 150 vote lead) and Durham by 11% (about 540 vote lead).

That's a wrap.

My Hanover numbers were wrong, must have clicked the wrong one or something. Pete did gain about 300 some votes there rather than 170, but yeah, I think it's probably over. Notable w/ Hanover, Warren potentially took a lot of Sanders votes in that college town area, she hit 18% there.

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2 minutes ago, toshiba said:

Check out 538, Sanders was right where he was expected to be.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Bernie has been polling about that number for some time. These are new developments with Amy and Pete. Bernie has his core voters, but those that voted for him because he wasnt Hillary in 16 seem to be migrating elsewhere. 

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One thing that I’ve found interesting is how Sanders’ coalition has gone from very white and rural in 2016 to pretty urban and multiracial in 2020. Hillary’s coalition followed a similar path from 2008 to 2016. 

 

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Just now, MAC_32 said:
4 minutes ago, toshiba said:

Check out 538, Sanders was right where he was expected to be.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Bernie has been polling about that number for some time. These are new developments with Amy and Pete. Bernie has his core voters, but those that voted for him because he wasnt Hillary in 16 seem to be migrating elsewhere. 

Correct.  Bernie is performing as expected.  Amy and Pete are outperforming with Warren and Biden falling.

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Just now, MAC_32 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Bernie has been polling about that number for some time. These are new developments with Amy and Pete. Bernie has his core voters, but those that voted for him because he wasnt Hillary in 16 seem to be migrating elsewhere. 

Pete and Amy have been surging of late.  Amy certainly later than Pete, but both in a matter of weeks closed a huge gap.

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2 minutes ago, Gawain said:

Honestly, I think Bloomberg had the best night. 538 will peg the chance of a contested convention around 27% tomorrow. No one has consolidated as the center-left candidate. Warren's not getting out of the race, so support isn't consolidating behind Bernie. Biden's not getting out, so will likely pull delegates in SC at least.

The way to get Bloomberg out is to have two viable candidates by Super Tuesday. That doesn't look to be happening.
If we have six viable candidates on Super Tuesday, there's going to be some major math problems getting anyone to 1991 come March 4th.

Primary might be more exciting then the general.

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2 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

Looks like Pete know's he's getting second. He broke in the game of chicken before Bernie and is out for his speech.

Pete did more to thank Biden supporters than Biden did, who got out of Dodge today rather quickly.

Edited by Phil Elliott
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1 minute ago, Daywalker said:

When is the big day for bloomberg?  I expect him to not quite make it.  But then he will basically push pete or klobacher to victory.

Super Tuesday (March 3) is when Bloomberg makes his grand appearance.

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Just now, Henry Ford said:

Depending on who drops out, things may change substantially by next primary. I don’t see Joe leaving soon, but lots of others are up in the air. 

Who of significance will drop in the next 18 days?

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I think what makes Bernie a winner tonight is how bad Warren did and the centrist vote is still split among 4 candidates.  You have to imagine the DNC is on the phone with Elizabeth telling her to stick it out until at least Super Tuesday.  Right now it seems that @fatguyinalittlecoat is Nostradamus - it seems difficult to imagine one of the candidates winning this before the convention.

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Nevada is up next and the drama is already starting tonight. NV Culinary Union is contacting its 60,000 members via email, text, and flyer warning that Sanders would end their beloved union healthcare: https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/in-new-flyer-culinary-union-warns-members-sanders-would-end-their-health-care-if-elected-president

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2 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I think what makes Bernie a winner tonight is how bad Warren did and the centrist vote is still split among 4 candidates.  You have to imagine the DNC is on the phone with Elizabeth telling her to stick it out until at least Super Tuesday.  Right now it seems that @fatguyinalittlecoat is Nostradamus - it seems difficult to imagine one of the candidates winning this before the convention.

I dont think warren votes go to bernie necessarily.

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5 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I think what makes Bernie a winner tonight is how bad Warren did and the centrist vote is still split among 4 candidates.  You have to imagine the DNC is on the phone with Elizabeth telling her to stick it out until at least Super Tuesday.  Right now it seems that @fatguyinalittlecoat is Nostradamus - it seems difficult to imagine one of the candidates winning this before the convention.

This seems logical but doesn't seem to be the way the polling has gone, in terms of people's second choices.  That's been really wacky when you look at it.  I guess people are aligning themselves more by personalities than ideals.  And if Warren dropped out and decided to throw herself behind Klobuchar, for instance, then it would really be interesting.

I do wish we could get down to one progressive candidate (Bernie) and one more center-progressive (Klobuchar or Pete), so we could see where the voters really want to be.

Edited by krista4
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4 minutes ago, caustic said:

Nevada is up next and the drama is already starting tonight. NV Culinary Union is contacting its 60,000 members via email, text, and flyer warning that Sanders would end their beloved union healthcare: https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/in-new-flyer-culinary-union-warns-members-sanders-would-end-their-health-care-if-elected-president

I've got mine, screw the rest.  Obama sold us down the river.

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1 minute ago, krista4 said:

This seems logical but doesn't seem to be the way the polling has gone, in terms of people's second choices.  That's been really wacky when you look at it.  I guess people are aligning themselves more by personalities than ideals.  And if Warren dropped out and decided to throw herself behind Klobuchar, for instance, then it would really be interesting.

I do wish we could get down to one progressive candidate (Bernie) and one more center-progressive (Klobuchar or Pete) AND one self financed Billionaire Republican, so we could see where the voters really want to be.

Small addition.

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Just now, BassNBrew said:

Small addition.

I know, I know.  I left him out on purpose because when I say I'd like to get it down to just Bernie vs. Amy/Pete, I mean that.  Bloomberg doesn't register with me.

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