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Where would the Dow be if Hillary were president?


Juxtatarot

Where would the Dow be if Hillary were president?  

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6 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:

She probably would have attacked Russia over allegedly helping Trump. A nuclear war would have kicked off, so the stock market would be lucky to be over 0.  

Why say allegedly?  The facts proved Russia did that. 

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47 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

I’m glad I started this thread. It’s been enlightening viewing it as a microcosm of the forum and the issues we commonly have.

I didn’t even vote - my personal opinion is the market is so complex that it’s impossible to predict what it will do so trying to predict a hypothetical 3 years seems even more crazy to attempt.

No offense intended.

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23 hours ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Sadly, we'll never know.

To be fair this "World" in which you live is just my simulation on what would have happened if Trump was elected president.  Me and a buddy were arguing about it so I created this universe to settle that bet.

Edited by toshiba
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8 minutes ago, toshiba said:

To be fair this "World" in which you live is just my simulation on what would have happened if Trump was elected president.  Me and a buddy were arguing about it so I created this universe to settle that bet.

MAKE IT STOP!!!!!! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD MAKE IT STOP!!!!!

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49 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I didn’t even vote - my personal opinion is the market is so complex that it’s impossible to predict what it will do so trying to predict a hypothetical 3 years seems even more crazy to attempt.

No offense intended.

My finance professor used to say, “Sometimes the best explanation for the Dow’s performance on a given day is that 40% of Americans believe Elvis is still alive.”

(Which, come to think of it, may also be the best explanation for how Trump got elected.)

Edited by zftcg
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24 minutes ago, zftcg said:

My finance professor used to say, “Sometimes the best explanation for the Dow’s performance on a given day is that 40% of Americans believe Elvis is still alive.”

(Which, for the record, may also be the best explanation for how Trump got elected.)

Interesting.  Did you apply this explanation when Obama was president?

Because all I'm hearing from the left is that Trump is benefiting from "Obama's Economy" (nonsense, of course).

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4 minutes ago, zftcg said:

No, I think it’s possible to draw a direct line between the Dow’s performance in 2008 and Obama’s election without any need to invoke Elvis

Too funny.  Do you know what actually turned the Dow around in 2008?  There were very specific things which happen which the market responded too.  The hint is, it had nothing to do with anything obama had any impact on.  

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1 hour ago, Sam Quentin said:

War in Syria and an emboldened ISIS would have oil prices sky high.

With high oil, that would definitely impact the fed and QE policy.

 Add in deregulation tax policy and trade policy and it’s a mixed bag, but I say a good bit lower than now.

Adding in that the tax cut is like a peace dividend for the war we didn’t wage in Syria to turn it into another failed and/or theocratic state.

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7 hours ago, GoBirds said:

Just loving the scientific analysis of those that whine in here daily about Trump so surprisingly think nothing would be different/would be better with ol Hilly....really groundbreaking stuff in here guys who could have predicted it!:lmao:

I am unaware of a person claiming they'd be exactly the same.  Most are saying they'd be roughly the same.  I'm not sure why that is outlandish in any shape or form coming from someone who voted the market would be less than 10,000 with Hillary at the helm.  A whole 8 people think it would be better compared to double digits thinking it would be under 10K, but yeah, make fun of those 8  :lmao:   You're all in the same boat, just rowing in different directions calling each other moron.

One day, people will realize that an individual does NOT make/break the stock market.  Until then, those who do and throw that kind of nonsense around will be here for our enjoyment.  Thanks for your contribution :thumbup: 

Edited by The Commish
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5 hours ago, zftcg said:
5 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

I didn’t even vote - my personal opinion is the market is so complex that it’s impossible to predict what it will do so trying to predict a hypothetical 3 years seems even more crazy to attempt.

No offense intended.

My finance professor used to say, “Sometimes the best explanation for the Dow’s performance on a given day is that 40% of Americans believe Elvis is still alive.”

(Which, come to think of it, may also be the best explanation for how Trump got elected.)

:lmao:

Exactly....incredibly complex but we have people who believe an individual has significant impact on the market long term....freakin' awesome.

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I voted for for 25,000 to 29,999 but wonder, she wouldn’t have enacted a trillion dollar tax cut for he rich and increased defense spending over 200 billion a year which added to our overall debt. In addition no trade war so likely better gdp growth so probably should of considered Dow a little higher.

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6 hours ago, jon_mx said:

Too funny.  Do you know what actually turned the Dow around in 2008?  There were very specific things which happen which the market responded too.  The hint is, it had nothing to do with anything obama had any impact on.  

You misunderstood. I was saying the Dow’s performance contributed to Obama’s election, not the other way around. 

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18 hours ago, jon_mx said:

Too funny.  Do you know what actually turned the Dow around in 2008?  There were very specific things which happen which the market responded too.  The hint is, it had nothing to do with anything obama had any impact on.  

Also I have no idea what you’re talking about here since the market didn’t turn around at all in 2008. It fell steadily throughout the year and bottomed out in February 2009 (and no, I’m not attributing that to Obama or anything else. Just stating it as a historical fact.) And also to state the obvious: there’s no way Obama could have had any impact on the Dow in 2008 since he wasn’t president yet

Edited by zftcg
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On 2/15/2020 at 6:50 PM, Henry Ford said:

But she wouldn’t have signed that tax cut that inflated stock value.  My best guess is 27,500-29,000

Think the lack of trade wars would have offset the tax cut and we end up about in the same place.   I'm guessing we will cut tariffs late summer/early fall for a boost in the stock market pre-election.  

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16 hours ago, jon_mx said:

:lol:Yes, but one post later he credits Obama.

Not sure that's what he was saying at all, but if true those opinions all cut from the same cloth :shrug: 

ETA:  But he clarified his position shortly after this....read it.

Edited by The Commish
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1 hour ago, Nugget said:

Think the lack of trade wars would have offset the tax cut and we end up about in the same place.   I'm guessing we will cut tariffs late summer/early fall for a boost in the stock market pre-election.  

About the same.  Between 25,000-29,999 is where we are now.  That's what I voted for.

And I don't think the tariff cuts are going to make much if any difference if things stay as they are.  The assumption that we won't keep doing this seems built into the current price.

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