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2024 Miami Dolphins: Draft Time (6 Viewers)

Ministry of Pain said:
I had not thought about it but yeah, probably will end up missing the game next week vs Chiefs, that would be icing on the cake. 

They will be 8-5 likely with or without all these guys. 

NE, LV, BUF to close, not sure the home vs away games but 9-7 could be the outcome, or they could lose 4 straight games to close the season although I believe Miami should be strong and in the game vs those last 3 teams. 
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Last 2 games vs LV & BUF are away.  The next 2 are home games.  We should win at least one of those 4 games - either NE or LV - and go 10-6.

 
Monday Morning after the Miami Dolphins cap a run of 14 games going 10-4 over that period of time. 

-That streak started with a 38-35 OT win over CIncinnati in December last year, fitting they play them again before they square off vs the Chiefs next week. 

Miami has feasted on some bad football teams. They've also gone 3-1 vs the hyped NFC West which ha quieted down a lot in recent weeks. Miami is in the Playoffs as of today in a very competitive AFC so there's no slight on them but they have been fortunate to break in a lot of Rookies and 2nd Year guys over this schedule. 

A few things that I found interesting yesterday was for the first time we had enough depth on OL to be able to overcome an injury. Flowers was having perhaps his best year ever and I think Miami was coaching him into an eve better player and injury likely will have him out for the next many weeks. Kindley was able to roll over to LG, Jesse Davis plugged right in at RG. Hopefully Flowers can return but it looked pretty bad and it could be a fracture, we just don't know. I was hoping for high ankle sprain, 4-6 weeks but that might be wishful thinking. It leaves a pretty good size hole but Miami at least has some real depth. Their OL still needs some work but they have invested in it heavily with 3 Rookies, went out and brought in Vets like Flowers to help bring along the entire group and Flowers has been that guy, hoping he can still help on the sidelines while he is injured. 

Miami Defense continues to be the backbone fo this team. Kyle Van Noy had another big game for us. Shaq, Ogbah, Wilkins, Sieler, all of them seemed to contribute yesterday. The Secondary looks good and we are getting quality play from guys who have had rough days like Needham and the Rookie Safety-Brandon Jones not to be confused with Byron Jones #24. Van Ginkel continues to cause havoc even when he isn't filling up the stat box. 

Tua? Good Quarterbacks don't go 0 for 10 on 3rd Down, they didn't convert one until the last minute of the game. He also has Zero Interceptions so far in his young career. He did have a couple of turnovers nullified by flags so it seems like a matter of time before he has a bad game as evidence by interceptions which he has somehow avoided to this point. I don't see a lot of strength on his throws. He was bailed out by his receivers, many of his throws to Parker were off target by a lot. 

The good news though is he wins games. The offense was mostly terrible with him running the show but let's be honest, Fitz had a big lull in the program vs the Jets, remember it was only 13-3 going into the 4th Q, the guy was efficient but he wasn't that amazing. What FF folks are clamoring about and it will get in the way of the actual evaluation is that Parker has a steep drop in production when Tua is QB. Be it errant throws, DPI calls that nobody gets credit for, long stretches with no targets...there's reasons or excuses for all of it. 

Bottom line is most PhinFans just want victories and will take whatever they can get, 17 years since Miami was 8-4. That's an entire generation about to graduate High School and many before them that basically never saw Miami do didly squat their entire childhoods. Hard to build a fan base like that. 

Go Phins!!!

 
Last 14 games for the Head Coaches all hired same year as Flores(10-4) in Jan '19 for most of them.

Freddie Kitchens: Only made it 1 Season and was fired. 

Adam Gase: Former Miami HC had a 1-7 start in New York, this season he is off to an 0-12 start and has the Jets poised to take the No 1 Pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. 

Zac Taylor: Now has a 4-23-1 record since becoming a head coach in the NFL. 

Vic Fangio: 6-8 over his last 14 games, seems like he might be relieved of his duties at the end of the year but he really hasn't had much to work with on offense. 

Kliff Kingbury: 7-7 over his last 14 games, 5-10-1 a year ago, lost 4 of his last 5 as head coach. 

Bruce Arians: Right around .500 and the Bucs might make it to the Wildcard this year, maybe. 

Matt LaFleur: has an outstanding record and also has a Hall of Fame QB still producing at a high level that none fo these other guys have,. 

 
Baldinger breaks down the Phins and he makes a great point although it doesn't make me a lot more Tua enthusiastic but his point about 5 Rookies starting for Miami including Tua is an excellent point. What other team is doing this on offense?

8-4 to boot, unreal. Flores should be Coach of the Year. 

 
ROS or today?  KC will try to take away Parker and since after Gaskin went COVID the RBs are Washington Laird and McGuire I’d say he’ll get some more looks again today. But no clue how fantasy worthy

 
If there is such a thing as a good loss that was it. Defense made Mahomes look almost human and without Van Noy. Whole team showed fight and an attitude of refusing to quit.Tua made some sweet passes and is looking more comfortable. They played with the best team in the league for large stretches yesterday. We couldn't say that a year ago.

 
King of the Jungle said:
Any thoughts on Lynn Bowden and what his upside is? Boxscore looked decent last week and seemed quite involved. 
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Parker & Grant both left with leg issues neither returned and with Gesicki's shoulder injury that has Tua praying for him...Bowden is likely going to see another 20% target share. Mack Hollins has been seeing the ball more and will likely increase his % as well.  

 
https://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/31893/mapping-out-miami-dolphins-path-to-2020-nfl-playoffs-wild-card-or-bust

Win all three games, the Dolphins are in.

Other playoffs odds from the Playoff Predictor will become more clear depending on how the Dolphins fare in their final three games. Here are a few:

If the Dolphins beat the Patriots on Sunday, their odds to make the playoffs improve to 48.4%.

If the Dolphins beat the Patriots and Raiders, but they lose to the Bills, they have a 75.9% chance of getting in.

If the Dolphins beat the Patriots and Bills, but they lose to the Raiders, they have a 58.3% chance of getting in.

If the Dolphins lose to the Patriots, but they beat the Raiders and Bills, they have a 79% chance of getting in.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Baldinger breaks down the Phins and he makes a great point although it doesn't make me a lot more Tua enthusiastic but his point about 5 Rookies starting for Miami including Tua is an excellent point. What other team is doing this on offense?

8-4 to boot, unreal. Flores should be Coach of the Year. 
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egofailure said:
I'm a big fan for Baldinger's breakdowns. Enjoy this one, Tua fans. 

https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1338806495526457346
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I haven't watched this one yet but many of the things he said in last week's breakdown were ringing in my head watching Tua again this week. What I am saying is BB's words made me not rush to judgement this week. 5 Rookies on Offense...when Marino took over the offense in 1983, Miami had 2 Hall of Fame guys on the line with Stephenson-C and Keuchenberg-G and while Bob hasn't quite made it into the HoF yet he has been a finalist many many times. 

Tight Ends? Joe Rose already had a career night vs San Diego in '81 in the Miracle in Miami, Mark Duper was a rookie in 1982 but they had Nat Moore of course at WR and he taught both Duper and Clayton how to tear defenses up in the 80s. 

My point is Tua is being asked to be a leader without many leaders around him, the defense on the other hand? Kyle Van Noy, Ogden on the DL, Byron Jones brought in at Cornerback...it's awesome we finally have a defense that is starting to look every bit as lethal as the one that had Taylor-Thomas-Madison-Surtain...remember when that was a thing in the late 90s? Well the 2020 Miami Dolphins are starting to take shape. How about the early 90s with Cross, Cox and Vincent? The Miami Defense is about as real as I have ever seen, I wasn't born yet in '72 so I didn't ever get to eyeball them.  

I have more to say about this past week vs KC but I saw that post and think we should all be watching and listening to some of the tape breakdown before we launch any type of critical response to Tua...he is now only 12 months removed from a dislocated hip, he has a winning record as a Quarterback so far and he has ZERO to work with at RB, sorry but Gaskin has to be one of the worst starting RB1 types on all 32 rosters, he's very average and we need to be honest about that. he's not shaking guys out of their jock straps. 

I'm not going to pile on Tua right now and I don't feel that good about the Patriots this week despite them losing 24-3 last Thursday. 

 
TripleThreat said:
https://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/31893/mapping-out-miami-dolphins-path-to-2020-nfl-playoffs-wild-card-or-bust

Win all three games, the Dolphins are in.

Other playoffs odds from the Playoff Predictor will become more clear depending on how the Dolphins fare in their final three games. Here are a few:

If the Dolphins beat the Patriots on Sunday, their odds to make the playoffs improve to 48.4%.

If the Dolphins beat the Patriots and Raiders, but they lose to the Bills, they have a 75.9% chance of getting in.

If the Dolphins beat the Patriots and Bills, but they lose to the Raiders, they have a 58.3% chance of getting in.

If the Dolphins lose to the Patriots, but they beat the Raiders and Bills, they have a 79% chance of getting in.
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If Miami finishes 10-6, pretty sure they are going to get in. 

Baltimore 8-5, Cleveland 9-4, Indy/Ten 9-4...I was looking and most of these teams have fairly soft schedules to close the season. I feel like Las Vegas at 7-6 has fallen way behind the pace now. 

It would be good for Miami to win the next two weeks and see what 10-5 vs Buffalo(12-3/11-4) looks like in Week 17...it's possible the game has less meaning than folks might think. Miami is a full 2 games back now plus they already lost to Buffalo 30-27 or something. 

And didn't I hear something about possible 8 teams getting in each conference? I doubt that happens but Miami going 10-6 and missing the Playoffs would be hard to swallow for a lot of folks. 

 
Grant, Gesickia and Parker inactive. Everyone is looking at Lynn Bowden but I’m expecting Hollins (who tied Bowden with 9 targets last week) to get some run... super deep sleeper. 

 
Hard to see a path without Miami winning out, but the team is showing a lot of determination.  We'd all like to see Tua sling it around like the other rookie QBs, but this is a seriously depleted offense. I was encouraged by his decision making improvement throughout the game.

 
Ahmed really saved the day. He managed to find yards when they needed them the most. 

Thrilled to be 9-5, got a win in Mid/Late December, another next week would be great. Think Buffalo ices the division next week, Week 17 they rest everyone and let us cruise in 11-5 as a Wildcard behind them, Oh Yeah!

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Ahmed really saved the day. He managed to find yards when they needed them the most. 

Thrilled to be 9-5, got a win in Mid/Late December, another next week would be great. Think Buffalo ices the division next week, Week 17 they rest everyone and let us cruise in 11-5 as a Wildcard behind them, Oh Yeah!
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If indy beats pittsburgh, then Buffalo can win out and get the 2 seed.  That's got value, as you get a 2nd round home game for sure (if you make it there) and you dodge KC for a round.  

 
Desert_Power said:
Hard to see a path without Miami winning out, but the team is showing a lot of determination.  We'd all like to see Tua sling it around like the other rookie QBs, but this is a seriously depleted offense. I was encouraged by his decision making improvement throughout the game.
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I love what I see with Tua...I am not comparing him to Brady overall but when I read the negative comments about him it reminds me of those who dumped on Brady early on...Tua  is only 22 and missed a good portion of last year...like Brady's early years he's also learning the ropes while having his team contend which is far different than being on a team in complete rebuild mode where mistakes just aren't as important or at least are not magnified...I love how Flores is handling him and like BB going with Brady over Bledsoe the decision to go with Tua over Fitz (which was not an easy one) was absolutely the right thing to do...I will know take my Patriots dig...it only took about 15 years but it really does look like the Dolphins are heading in the right direction.

 
To me, it's another incomplete grade on Tua. He averaged 7 ypc, as most passes were short predetermined throws, many on rollouts. When you run for 200 yards, the QB isn't asked to do much. He didn't have his top weapons, and defense played well,  so the strategy worked. 

And when he was under pressure, he threw a pick at the goal line.

 
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I asked in the game thread when the last time a rookie QB lead team beat Belichick.  according to the below it was 2013.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/patriots-coach-bill-belichicks-dominance-vs-rookie-nfl-quarterbacks#:~:text=No%20Beginner's%20Luck%20Against%20Belichick&text=Bill%20Belichick's%20Patriots%20teams%20are,game%20is%20in%20Foxboro%2C%20fuggedaboutit. 

Bill Belichick's Patriots teams are an astonishing 21-5 against rookie QBs since he took over the reins in New England in the 2000 season -
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SoBeDad said:
To me, it's another incomplete grade on Tua. He averaged 7 ypc, as most passes were short predetermined throws, many on rollouts. When you run for 200 yards, the QB isn't asked to do much. He didn't have his top weapons, and defense played well,  so the strategy worked. 

And when he was under pressure, he threw a pick at the goal line.
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TripleThreat said:
I asked in the game thread when the last time a rookie QB lead team beat Belichick.  according to the below it was 2013.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/patriots-coach-bill-belichicks-dominance-vs-rookie-nfl-quarterbacks#:~:text=No Beginner's Luck Against Belichick&text=Bill Belichick's Patriots teams are,game is in Foxboro%2C fuggedaboutit.
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Both good observations and facts that you bring to the table. I think it's awesome he did something no other rookie QB has done since 2013 but let's also not pretend the Patriots we saw yesterday are anything like what has rolled thru here for the last 2 decades. 

-I agree with SBD that Tua has nothing to work with and we should keep pointing out that Miami is starting Tua-Rookie, Austin Jackson-Rookie, Bowden-Rookie, Solomon Kindley-Rookie, Ahmed-Rookie, Robert Hunt-Rookie, making Miami the first team to START 6 ROOKIES since AZ-2018 and you have to take that into account when you grade him out. 

-TT keeps MoP from jumping off the ledge at times during the games. Miami rushed for like 250 yds and had runs of 30+, 20+ and 14-13-12 all in the 2nd half as Miami just demoralized New England in the 2nd Half. Miami scored on 3 of their last 4 drives. 

 
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-The OL for Miami deserves some big kudos, Austin Jackson was outstanding at times yesterday, moving people out of the way and getting some key run blocks.

-Smythe/Shaheen had 6 big catches for 55 yds and were extended Offensive Lineman as the run blocking for Miami was simply incredible when they got focused and decided that was how they would move the football. The run game really took the lead here and said they were going to take over the football game. 

-Xavien Howard should be mentioned in DPTY talk, he has been incredible and will be voted on as an All Pro. 

-Tua spoke about the interception, he took ownership of the interception, he talked about taking what the defense was giving them in the 2nd Half. Tua is a counterpuncher, there can be no doubt. He waits patiently for you to drop your side doors and then he pounces. When they give him some bullets to work with at WR and RB he will look a whole lot better than he does now sporting a 7-2 record I think? That could be scary. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
-The OL for Miami deserves some big kudos, Austin Jackson was outstanding at times yesterday, moving people out of the way and getting some key run blocks.

-Smythe/Shaheen had 6 big catches for 55 yds and were extended Offensive Lineman as the run blocking for Miami was simply incredible when they got focused and decided that was how they would move the football. The run game really took the lead here and said they were going to take over the football game. 

-Xavien Howard should be mentioned in DPTY talk, he has been incredible and will be voted on as an All Pro. 

-Tua spoke about the interception, he took ownership of the interception, he talked about taking what the defense was giving them in the 2nd Half. Tua is a counterpuncher, there can be no doubt. He waits patiently for you to drop your side doors and then he pounces. When they give him some bullets to work with at WR and RB he will look a whole lot better than he does now sporting a 7-2 record I think? That could be scary. 
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With 4 picks in the first 2 rounds, and maturation of the youngsters, expectations will be sky high next year. 

 
agreed. MOP this year's Pats aren't the same ole Pats.... Herberts week 13 line...26-for-53, 209 yards, 2 INT, 3 sacks (43.7 QB rating)

Ministry of Pain said:
<snip> 

-Tua spoke about the interception, he took ownership of the interception, he talked about taking what the defense was giving them in the 2nd Half. Tua is a counterpuncher, there can be no doubt. He waits patiently for you to drop your side doors and then he pounces. When they give him some bullets to work with at WR and RB he will look a whole lot better than he does now sporting a 7-2 record I think? That could be scary. 
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and I'm glad you brought this up.  He did last last week as well... addressing the elephant in the room about his play before being asked.  

 
Miami has been blessed to see some dynamic corners roll through... in the end X might be the best.  He's already 12th on the all time Phins list. 

 
TripleThreat said:
Indeed... undoubtedly a horrible decision.  then later, in a similar goal line situation, he did this...    

https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1340848941227753472?s=20 
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I think people expect Tua to be more mobile than he is out of the gate.  He never ran much at Bama. Maybe he never had to, but it's one reason I've always liked the Brees comp.

The development in pocket awareness here will be critical to watch. You get some mulligans behind this rookie Oline.

 
With last nights win, this weeks Cinci Hou game is something to keep an eye on.

Cinci --- hou  BAL

CAR --- was  NO

ATL ---  kc  tpa

HOU --- CIN  TEN

 
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Per Cameron Wolfe — 

Mike Gesicki and Jakeem Grant are ACTIVE for Dolphins tonight vs. Raiders. DeVante Parker is INACTIVE. Very important game, Tua Tagovailoa has 2 weapons back but tough not to have Parker.

Dolphins inactives: Parker, Shaq Lawson, Solomon Kindley, DeAndre Washington, Chandler Cox.

 
I believe Miami will want to run the football, and with both Gaskin and Ahmed at their disposal I think the game plan will revolve around a lot of extended drives when they can get them. 

Nothing is quick strike for Miami with really not a front line WR across the board. You're asking a lot for Bowden and Grant to be your starting WRs, who is the WR3/4/5 on this team right now? Anybody know?

RBs and TEs will rule the offense tonight, was hoping for a big Miami showing but will just be happy if they can get out of Nevada with a win. 

Go Phins!!!

 
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Flores has called this a playoff game. I’m hoping it doesn’t take Chan 2 plus quarters to go uptempo and play to Tuas strength.

 
With Lawson out I’m looking forward to seeing what Sieler and Van Ginkel do with the extra plays... they’ve showed flashes in their opportunities so far. 

 
Truebluey said:
 
Flores just announced Tua as the starting QB against the Bills.
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This seems like a bad decision.  Speaking as a Bills fan, there's no doubt in my mind whatsoever -- literally none -- that I would greatly prefer to go against Tua than Fitz.  

Then again, having Fitz available does add a little wrinkle to to a team's game planning.  These two guys are radically different QBs, and I've observed over the years, including last night obviously, that Fitz tends to catch teams sleeping when he comes off the bench.  I can see where the defense gets lulled into defending just 10 yards or so within the LOS, and then all of the sudden you've got a guy under center who wants to sling it all over the field.  It certainly worked out against Oakland, but with little margin for error.  

 
IvanKaramazov said:
This seems like a bad decision.  Speaking as a Bills fan, there's no doubt in my mind whatsoever -- literally none -- that I would greatly prefer to go against Tua than Fitz.  

Then again, having Fitz available does add a little wrinkle to to a team's game planning.  These two guys are radically different QBs, and I've observed over the years, including last night obviously, that Fitz tends to catch teams sleeping when he comes off the bench.  I can see where the defense gets lulled into defending just 10 yards or so within the LOS, and then all of the sudden you've got a guy under center who wants to sling it all over the field.  It certainly worked out against Oakland, but with little margin for error.  
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Having to plan for both is going to be a burden for any team they go against. As good as Fitz looks, you also don't want to ruin the confidence of Tua forever by straight benching him.

Flores is playing a dangerous game here, but if Tua and Fitz are really as mature as the fluff reporting makes it sound it will work.

I haven't looked at the projected playoff matchups, will the Bills be resting starters week 17?

 
Desert_Power said:
I haven't looked at the projected playoff matchups, will the Bills be resting starters week 17?
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Too early to say.  If the Titans and Steelers both lose and the Bills win this weekend, we'll have the #2 seed locked up heading into week 17.  I assume we would rest most of our starters in that case.  Otherwise my guess is that everybody plays.

 
Houston lost to Cinci today 37-31...they managed to leapfrog Cinci for a Draft spot, Atlanta almost won today, that would have been huge. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Houston at this very moment is picking No 4...Tankathon has them there. 
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If CAR loses to WFT, Miami would be drafting #5. I don't think the Texans beat the Titans next week, so that looks like the most likely spot for Miami's first pick. Tankathon has us picking Micah Parsons, who be a difference maker at a position of need. 

 
SoBeDad said:
If CAR loses to WFT, Miami would be drafting #5. I don't think the Texans beat the Titans next week, so that looks like the most likely spot for Miami's first pick. Tankathon has us picking Micah Parsons, who be a difference maker at a position of need. 
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I don't care who we pick yet, I just want to get something better than 16 like Pittsburgh pulled when they were winless as we were trading them Fitz last season. 

There is a chance no matter how remote that we could pick No 3 which is like Justin Fields territory if you catch my drift. Miami could pull off a massive trade out fo the spot as well including established player plus picks, they can wheel n deal. Jax is not going to trade out of 1 but anything could be possible after that. 

And I can bump a bunch of posts where folks were saying Houston would still be like No 12, No 16, etc...and I'm saying as of right now this second, they are No 4! And the Cinci loss was huge, especially if they lose again next week. We don't know about Watson, he got hurt pretty bad on the last throw, he had his hand mangled on a facemask and that turned his arm and elbow around, i could see him OUT next week. Just saying. 

 
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No loss by Steelers. Bills won't be resting their guys. This is gonna be an ###-whipping of epic proportions against Miami. I'm not trolling, I'm just giving an opinion as a football fan. I'd have the spread if Tua starts at Dolphins +7.5. 

 
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