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*** Official 2021 Dolphins Thread - Phins 1-0, Jets, Bills and Pats all 0-1...Say What !!


SwampDawg

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Ok we are getting close to the combine and draft. What do Phin fans want to see ?

Personally I'd love to get Tua at the 5 (assuming his health checks out) but I have a feeling we are going to need to move to the 3 slot to get him. I think Detroit is bluffing that they will take him to drive up the price. I wouldn't give more then the #27 pick and our later 2nd rounder. I know the "charts" say that isn't enough but no one else has more to offer so I call their bluff.

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23 minutes ago, SwampDawg said:

I think Detroit is bluffing that they will take him to drive up the price. I wouldn't give more then the #27 pick and our later 2nd rounder. I know the "charts" say that isn't enough but no one else has more to offer so I call their bluff.

Which charts say that? That seems like an overpay by "chart values". This chart says 5 + 39 is an ever-so-slight overpay for 3. Granted, a healthy Tua supposedly goes #1 most years, so the typical trade chart is out the window, but even still 5+26 would be the most I'd want to give.

I feel like the Lions have cornered themselves a bit here, and are just trying to recover leverage at this point with the Stafford trade rumors. The owner basically said the HC and GM are in a win-or-else season, so trading your starter and starting over with an injured rookie makes no sense. That also makes it kind of obvious that they won' value future picks as highly as they normally would. Plus, if they really move on from Slay, they probably don't want to move down too far and risk missing out on Okudah. 

Moral of the story- if you need to give your coach and GM and ultimatum, you should probably just fire them. They are probably going to screw up what should be a great position to get a bunch of assets for a team that needs em. 

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I know I might be in the minority here, but if I were the GM, I would go after Bridgewater.  He might not be as electrifying as Tua could be, but Tua's injury scares me.  The Dolphins are in a terrific position to really turn their team around with the most cap space and 3 first round picks.  With the cap room they have, they could land two or three high-impact free agents and then use their three first rounders to land best players available in the draft.  Again, I'm certainly no expert, but as a fan, I could dig that scenario.

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11 minutes ago, Jedi Knight said:

I know I might be in the minority here, but if I were the GM, I would go after Bridgewater.  He might not be as electrifying as Tua could be, but Tua's injury scares me.  The Dolphins are in a terrific position to really turn their team around with the most cap space and 3 first round picks.  With the cap room they have, they could land two or three high-impact free agents and then use their three first rounders to land best players available in the draft.  Again, I'm certainly no expert, but as a fan, I could dig that scenario.

We watched a totally different team last year if you think three fa, the 1st, and a league average qb (at best) move this team into playoff contention for the next decade.

Getting a legitimate star qb moves the needle for them. Tua is one of two in this draft with that upside, even if he carries more risk.

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17 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

We watched a totally different team last year if you think three fa, the 1st, and a league average qb (at best) move this team into playoff contention for the next decade.

Getting a legitimate star qb moves the needle for them. Tua is one of two in this draft with that upside, even if he carries more risk.

Like I said, I am certainly no expert...and don't pretend to be, but I am a fan of Bridgewater and think he's a pretty smart QB.  I thought he did well for the Saints this year when given a chance to play.

I'm just not sold on Tua and that hip injury.  Especially if we have to try to move up to get him.

Just my two cents- not that it's worth even a single penny.

However, just for giggles- what if you could land in FA:
QB- Bridgewater
LB- Cory Littleton 
S- Anthony Harris
Edge- Jadaveon Clowny

Then, in the draft
5th pick- CD Lamb
Picks 18 and 26- Best player Available

You still have two 2nd round picks coming as well.  I think the Dolphins could really upgrade by doing that.

And if all else fails....there is that surfer-looking dude that plays for Clemson coming out next year.  😜

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4 hours ago, Jedi Knight said:

Like I said, I am certainly no expert...and don't pretend to be, but I am a fan of Bridgewater and think he's a pretty smart QB.  I thought he did well for the Saints this year when given a chance to play.

I'm just not sold on Tua and that hip injury.  Especially if we have to try to move up to get him.

Just my two cents- not that it's worth even a single penny.

However, just for giggles- what if you could land in FA:
QB- Bridgewater
LB- Cory Littleton 
S- Anthony Harris
Edge- Jadaveon Clowny

Then, in the draft
5th pick- CD Lamb
Picks 18 and 26- Best player Available

You still have two 2nd round picks coming as well.  I think the Dolphins could really upgrade by doing that.

And if all else fails....there is that surfer-looking dude that plays for Clemson coming out next year.  😜

I’m fine with Littleton and don’t know enough about Harris but Clowney wants way too much money. But you lost me with taking a WR at 5 when it’s one of the shall we say average units at least. Lamb isn’t even mocking in the top 10, if that is your target you trade back but to me you take a tackle there if you don’t go QB.

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5 hours ago, SwampDawg said:

I’m fine with Littleton and don’t know enough about Harris but Clowney wants way too much money. But you lost me with taking a WR at 5 when it’s one of the shall we say average units at least. Lamb isn’t even mocking in the top 10, if that is your target you trade back but to me you take a tackle there if you don’t go QB.

All good.  You're right, Tackle is a much bigger need, but I would take one of the premier skill guys with one of the three firsts.  Yeah, Clowney does want a lot, but there are several really good defensive players in free agency that could make a significant impact.  There are also several guards and a couple of tackles out there as well.  To me, This Free Agency class seems more loaded than usual.

The point being that Tua's injury and the risk that it brings makes me look at different options.  And Bridgewater is one of those options that I like.

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I will address the cap briefly but by and large Miami only has a decision on a couple players, one of them Albert Wilson will surely get a pink slip. He is set to make close to $11M and Miami can pick up almost $10M by cutting him so if you can live with that, you get a cap number quickly of about $102-$103M that Miami would have to spend.  

Think in terms of Over and Under about 10% of the cap number, we could say $200M for a round figure but I think it’s more now and going up a lot every year it seems. Teams are supposed to spend at least 89% of that figure or about $180M, and that means Miami will have almost the most to spend in free agency. I want to be clear, I do not think Miami should be spending big dollars in free agency, it has never really worked out here with few exceptions. 

 

There is a lot to cover but I would like to start by going thru the positions and who might be on the roster come Week 1, 2020. I’m going to cover the draft as well. I would hope and pray Miami does not trade up to get a QB and give away all their picks. They have a chance to load up 6+ in the first 70-80 selections, that should be enough to make a major impact up the middle of this defense and the middle of that offense and across the Lines. 

Easier to start on Defense and work back around to the Offense. 

DE- Charles Harris continues to look like a bust. Taco Charlton started 5 games, had 5 sacks. He was a 1st round pick and I think more time in Flores system and I’m eager to see what he can do in camp next year. Ledbetter and Avery Moss should be on their way out along with Harris eventually. 

Dante Fowler-Soon to be Free Agent. I am bringing him up because he wants to get paid and he had a terrific run in Los Angeles, they cannot afford to retain him and he might want to go to Atlanta to see his old college coach but they are not in great financial shape and Miami can outbid anyone they want. I would be OK if they could get a guy like this in free agency, there hard to find even drafting high. Miami is slowly putting together a secondary of playmakers and will add to it thru the draft, they need to find a pass rush and bring the heat. 

DT-Wilkins had a rough rookie year IMHO, he will have to make advances this year. Davon Godchaux continues to look like a gem in the 5th round where he was taken. He will be in the last year of his rookie deal, Miami needs to decide what they want to do with him. He’s solid but he’s not incredible, maybe use him as a potential trade bait to move up or down, etc...if they are not going to extend him. 

The Phins still need some major talent injected into their DLine and I expect them to select more of them with their first 6-7 picks, maybe turning them into more so they can overhaul this because nobody I have mentioned already on the team is really screaming All Pro here. 

A Fowler-Charlton combo coming off the corners though and you can start to see some upside. Also, Miami might be able to find one more in their many draft picks, you get a step forward from Wiikins in the middle and suddenly this unit isn’t the worst in football any longer. The reason I am going deep on the DLine is that Miami actually has some decent LB at the moment although none of them are really Pro Bowl level either. 

LB-Jerome Baker started 16 games for the Miami Dolphins last year. He was solid, might have had the most tackles on the team, 2 FF, 1 Int, 2 Sacks, he was fairly productive. If he were the 3rd best LB we would be better but he’s about the best Miami has. McMillan started 12 games and he didn’t force a fumble, make a sack or make many TFLs and since this is his last year of his rookie deal, I don’t see him long term with the Phins. And he may just play this year and then move on, it happens in the NFL but I don’t think Miami should be extending McMillan long term. He did OK coming off injury in 2018 but seemed to regress last year. 

The other guy is Vince Biegel who was very productive including 59 tackles, an Interception and a team leading 13 hits on the opposing team’s Quaterback so they need to think about keeping this guy. I think he might be a RFA in 2020 but he rounds out that trio to roll with for one more season and maybe bring in an athletic versatile LB from the draft that can push for one of these 3 positions but otherwise they need to overhaul all this and it won't happen in 2020, I’d look to the DL and start pouring in the concrete over there 1st. 

CB-Xavien Howard was arrested and then I read charges were dismissed. Not sure if he still has to meet with Goodell or not but hopefully no more of this. Miami is paying him top 5 money basically at CB, maybe Top 1 not sure. This guy has to be able to take away half the field and be feared, in general I don’t think QBs view him as a pushover that’s for sure. 

Eric Rowe is signed thru 2022, looks like Miami feels they have their starting 2 Corners or ⅔ of a starting Trio of DBs when you count the Slot. I think Miami will be able to find an impact DB at the top of the draft if they desire. But they did that with Fitz a couple years ago and it blew up in their face however you want to put it. Rowe seems to fit well in their system, I’d like Miami to have a trio of quality DBs in their Corner Slots. Big hitting Safeties are fading due to the rules, it’s better to have the best Corners and then have a way to bring the heat. The combo will create turnovers and short fields for the offense. 

Safety-Reshad Jones is set to hit the cap at $15.5M and will cost well over $10M to just flat out cut. Now I want to say that I wanted to trade Jones a long time ago before Miami shelled out Eric Berry like money for this guy and everyone got mad at me but looking back I was right. That said he is still capable of making impact plays.  It seems like last year they held him back a lot and asked him not to complain and just take the money. 

Miami does need or will need a Free Safety and Strong Safety eventually. Bobby McCain is part of the current secondary but he’s too small for Safety IMO. 

In closing I would approach free agency trying to hit a Home Run at DE, Clowney did not want to come to Miami. Fowler is from St Pete and went to Univ of Florida, maybe he’d enjoy coming back to his home state and the tax break too. I think Miami needs to look for more LB help thru the draft and also another impact DL, they need help in that front 7. At DB they have some good pieces, what would a Jeff Okudah look like opposite Howard with Rowe in the slot, McCain as a DB4-Hybrid and Jones at Safety over the top, that’s got some pop to it. Everything I am suggesting is totally doable with the salary cap and all they have to spend. 

 

Let’s roll over to the offense, save QB for last. 

WR: Looks solid right now with Parker locked up for a few years with a 4 yr/$30M deal, only $4.6 against the cap this season. He is going to be on the team for the next 3 years, there’s no doubt and they are getting a bargain if Parker can come anywhere close to his 1200/9TD breakout season. Preston Williams was looking like a hidden gem but ended up missing the entire 2nd half of the season. Allen Hurns is on the roster and looks to have the inside track as one of the back up wideouts. He was signed to a 2 year extension this past November so MIami fully expects to use him. Jakeem Grant is likely to take up a spot and you quickly see there might be two spots up for grabs at best. I don’t see Miami drafting a WR early in this draft despite it being deep. I could see them getting one though if the right guy fell and he could push for a WR2 or slot role right away. 

TE: I’m not sold on Mike Gesicki but some really like him. He was a 2nd Round pick in 2018, they will need to figure out if he is in the long term plans. If he is they could extend him as early as next off season. I don’t see a need to sign a big free agent but I would look in the draft if something falls and you can develop a “Pair” to deploy as weapons for Tua or whoever they might be drafting at QB, we’ll get into that soon. 

RB: They are a prime candidate to take a RB with one of their 4 picks in the first 39 or whatever it is. They need an infusion and I could see them sign the right free agent but they shouldn’t be going after guys that are wanting North of $10M a season. I see where D.Freeman could be available and that might be worth a look since his signing bonus is already finished, you would owe him $8M a season for maybe 2-3 years, might be worth it without breaking the bank and then draft someone in the 2nd or 3rd...Miami needs 2-3 quality RBs so they don’t get Fitz or whoever killed back there. 

OL-I don’t see a future for Davenport or Webb, J’Marcus Webb starting at Tackle is a joke, he’s old and wasn’t ever really that good for Chicago...he was drafted back in 2010, get out of here. Miami needs TWO Tackles to build around and I do believe they will try and fill one of them through the draft. $Jack Conklin$ of Tennessee Titans might become a free agent and that would be a terrific Right Tackle for Miami that will help when they draft a stud RB in the late 1st early 2nd to run behind him. 

RG/LG: I don’t know that I really believe in Jesse Davis and Michael Dieter but they are locked in right now as the starting interior linemen. I think if Miami can get some help at RT in free agency and LT thru the draft that these two will see their game elevate. Miami doesn’t need to concern themselves with OG in the draft, not this year when they have so many needs. They could also use a starting Center, Kilgore is old and ineffective IMO.  

QB: Fitz is locked up thru 2021 I think. If Tua falls to Miami at No 5 and they don’t have to trade up to get him then go for it. But I am not going to be happy at all if they trade their other 1st round picks to get one guy. They need a lot of help and have a lot of pressing needs. There are going to be free agent QBs walking the streets. 

What if Tua were to go at No 3 to Detroit or whoever trades up NOT named Miami? Awesome!!! We can take Jeff Okudah at Corner and make a sick 1-2 with him and Xavien Howard, it’s that simple. Or we could take the LB/S hybrid from Clemson named Simmons. Then there is the Offensive Tackle from Georgia, Andrew Thomas which Miami needs but they’ve drafted Tackles high before and it hasn’t meant “Franchise”. 

Miami can use the No 5 pick to make a big impact and still get a QB at No 18, I am a fan of Jordan Love and I would love Miami to get an OL assembled and A.Thomas-LT, J.Conklin-RT, Davis/Dieter LG/RG, and a Center to be found later and you have something that can protect and help Love while he learns BEHIND Fitzpatrick for perhaps his entire rookie campaign. Miami does not lose any of their draft picks and still have one more in the 1st. I think Miami can still grab Swift at No 26 and if not then they can find another prospect perhaps in the 2nd or 3rd. 

 

1.05 OT or DB

1.18 QB-Love

1.26 RB-Swift 

2.07 EDGE-Terrell Lewis(Alabama) or Edge-Marlon Davidson(Auburn) 

2.24 C-Tyler Biadasz or C-Cesar Ruiz, they need a good one to anchor the OL. 

3.06 S-Kyle Dugger

Compensatory for RT-James left for Denver. So to be clear, Miami sits on 6 of the 1st 70 selections in a deep 2020 Draft. 

I’m adding a QB, RB, LT, Speed Edge guy, Strong Center, all of those need to be starters for this team and not misses like Harris was in 2018. 

If they trade up for Tua it will cost a fortune and they will lose out on so many other guys that can help them. I have heard Tua compared a little to Drew Brees and that’s going to make Phins fans cringe because we could have signed Brees and opted not to back when Nick Saban was coaching here. If Tua falls to Miami at No 5 and they want to take him then so be it but do not trade away all these picks when you have a chance to load up on young talent. 

Miami could also trade back at No 5 but I’ll wait to weigh in on that closer to the draft.

If anyone wants to add some players I quite possibly overlooked or failed to mention, please add them to the discussion. 

Edited by Ministry of Pain
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Summing up how I see the team looking 

WR-D.Parker

LT-2020 Draft, One of the 1st Round picks IMO

LG-Jesse Davis

C-2020 Draft, 2nd Round, there are two really good ones that can be had from the Big Ten schools. Wisconsin or Michigan. 

RG-Michael Dieter

RT-Free Agent...I would pony up for 1 good OL

TE-M.Gesicki

WR-Preston Williams 

Slot-TBD but they have a couple guy on the roster already.

QB-Fitzpatrick for now

RB-2020 Draft and a free agent signing that doesn't set the market.  

 

On offense I see the Draft filling 3 major holes right now and then adding 1 Strong OL thru free agency. 

 

DE-Taco Charlton 

NT-D.Godchaux

DE-Christian Wilkins

OLB-Free Agent, Dante Fowler from Los Angeles 

ILB-Jerome Baker

ILB-Raekwon McMillian 

OLB-Vince Biegel/2020 Draft 2nd Round type pushing for snaps and 3rd/Long situations 

CB-Xavien Howard

CB-Eric Rowe

DB-Bobby McCain

S-Reshad Jones 

They will need additional DBs thru the draft and FA and invites to camp but they have some solid pieces in the secondary. 

If Miami has $100 Million to go throw around, I would get an OT and a DE and be willing to part with $12M-$15M per season for each guy, that's still going to leave a ton of bread to extend anyone they want and continue to find value where they can in the free agent market. 

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2 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

... that's still going to leave a ton of bread to extend anyone they want and continue to find value where they can in the free agent market. 

This is key to me. Living in Eagle country I hate the run they have had but one thing they have done well is managing the cap by extending guys early and getting a discount. Overall I like your plan, two decent size spends (one on each line), use the draft picks and extend some guys you like.

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5 hours ago, SwampDawg said:

This is key to me. Living in Eagle country I hate the run they have had but one thing they have done well is managing the cap by extending guys early and getting a discount. Overall I like your plan, two decent size spends (one on each line), use the draft picks and extend some guys you like.

Great points.

im trying to pinpoint 2-3 free agents that would take the team forward and make a huge impact. 

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2 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Great points.

im trying to pinpoint 2-3 free agents that would take the team forward and make a huge impact. 

Just spitballing but what do you think about them picking up L Bell and a pick from the jets in a Cleveland cap dump type trade? It's clear Gase doesn't want bell, and giving away picks are the only way the jets are getting out of that contract.

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49 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Just spitballing but what do you think about them picking up L Bell and a pick from the jets in a Cleveland cap dump type trade? It's clear Gase doesn't want bell, and giving away picks are the only way the jets are getting out of that contract.

$15M a season for this team is just simply a waste. They could take 2-3 in the draft plus an undrafted FA  and that might cost them $3M-$5M a season, I'm just saying I would not spend $15MM per year on a RB at this point in time. 

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11 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

$15M a season for this team is just simply a waste. They could take 2-3 in the draft plus an undrafted FA  and that might cost them $3M-$5M a season, I'm just saying I would not spend $15MM per year on a RB at this point in time. 

Bells contract has an out after this season where they can drop him and only have a 4m cap hit.  For multiple picks on a team that isn't ready to compete, wouldn't another year before investing big in the fa market make sense?

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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

Bells contract has an out after this season where they can drop him and only have a 4m cap hit.  For multiple picks on a team that isn't ready to compete, wouldn't another year before investing big in the fa market make sense?

I don't understand what you're saying, I think there will be a juicy choice in the 1st 4-5 picks Miami currently holds and I feel like Miami should pursue that thru the draft. 

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2 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

I don't understand what you're saying, I think there will be a juicy choice in the 1st 4-5 picks Miami currently holds and I feel like Miami should pursue that thru the draft. 

A few years ago Brock osweiler signed a huge contract with Houston then Houston gave him and a sixth plus the following year's 2nd to Cleveland for their compensatory 4th and to get his cap off the books.  I'm saying Miami should explore a similar trade for Bell.

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Let's play a little game I like to call Dolphins History 21st Century which basically is the last 20 years of Gawd awful football with a few exceptions and very little to show in any post season appearances we might have had. 

-The Year is 2006 and Miami is going to sign either Drew Brees or Duante Culpepper and Nick Saban doesn't trust Drew Brees arm or shoulder which was injured to end his season in San Diego and send him to the free agent market. Culpepper would play in 4 games and be off the Miami Dolphins by the next season. Drew Brees would go on to win a Super Bowl in New Orleans and heal a city after a Hurricane tore it apart. 

-The Year is 2011 and Miami starts off 0-7, it's obvious they are not going anywhere and it's also obvious that a QB at Stanford was a mortal lock for the No 1 pick as things were also crumbling in Indianapolis which conveniently shelved Manning for the entire year and end up getting the No 1 pick because Miami decides to go 6-3 down the stretch, even firing Tony Sporano(RIP) who went 4-2 after going 0-7 and Miami could have fired the whole staff minus ill equipped coaches to ride the season out with and likely lock up the No 1 pick but instead they fight and win some meaningless games and end up taking a QB anyways in the same draft, selecting Ryan Tannehill and we know how that story ends up playing out. 

-The Year is 2019 and Miami looks like a high school football team to open the month of September and into October and once again starts off 0-7 as fans are actually cheering for them to continue losing so they have the No 1 overall pick and have the first selection to take whoever they want. But instead the team finds its soul and in the process MAY HAVE found their head coach of the future after running thru about 10 others in the last 2 decades, none of them having any real success. But Miami decides to go 5-4 and in the process slips from No 1 down to No 5 and low and behold all the pundits have them trading multiple picks in the 1st round to trade up and get a QB. This is the type of thing Miami has done for the last 2 decades but last season as camp was winding down they decided to strip the cupboards bare even going as far as trading a future All Pro to a Conference Perennial giant in the Pittsburgh Steelers. Sure they loaded up at draft picks but if that's all in the name of just getting 1 player at QB with no guarantees, that falls in line with many of their other blunders like Dion Jordan, Jared Odrick, Ted GInn, more recently Charles Harris smelling like a big bust. 

Be careful what you wish for, any combining of selections in order to move up...heck they should be moving back and adding more picks. Turn 6 out of 70 into 10 out of the Top 100, load up. Bring in some speed and beef at LB if you can afford to, make the overhaul a faster process so this coach can keep his job. 2020 and the 2021 Draft Miami is pretty loaded with selections, don't burn them on a hot prospect NOT NAMED Trevor Lawrence who I like better than all of these QBs from 2020 combined. How do we get that guy? I think we tanked a season early but we'll soon find out. Not against Tua at 5 if he is there but it seems like even team like Washington are being discussed as re-thinking it just a bit before they ### on Tua and I think Chase from OSU is a lock to make GMs look smart for taking him, he's that good I think. If the Skins did take Tua, Chase would go to Detroit, New York will NOT take a QB, they could take Jeff Okudah and again I would be fine with the OT from Georgia or Simmons from Clemson, both would immediately impact key areas we need help in. 

Edited by Ministry of Pain
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On 2/28/2020 at 9:03 PM, wgoldsph said:

A few years ago Brock osweiler signed a huge contract with Houston then Houston gave him and a sixth plus the following year's 2nd to Cleveland for their compensatory 4th and to get his cap off the books.  I'm saying Miami should explore a similar trade for Bell.

A great approach and I understand where you are coming from. The signing bonus or the big money has mostly been shelled out by another team so you just pay the yearly salary if you can live with it and you don't accrue much dead cap if you eventually part ways prior to the contract ending. 

I still think Miami can do that for less than $12M-$13.5M per year which is what Bell has coming next 3 seasons when I peeked. I think Freeman from Atlanta is about half that in yearly cash. Anyone is better than just about anything Miami has right now. I would like to see a rookie and a vet on this team to help shoulder the load and make Miami a lot more unpredictable on offense. Fitz can't be the rushing leader moving forward. 

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This post is mostly just to invite a few folks into this thread, some won't even be Phins fans but I'd like to hear from @fatness who follows the Skins and they have the No 2 pick. 

Haven't seen @Todem or @TripleThreat and would like their thoughts on some of my opinions before we get to free agency and the draft. 

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I think that Bell idea is worth pursuing. Grab some more picks and take that contract off the Jets books for 2020. Then you can dump Bell and only take a small cap hit. I am all for getting more picks for a one year rental of a very good 3 down back like Leveon Bell. Not a bad idea at all. However how willing would the Jets be to trade within the division? Not likely. 

As far as QB’s. MOP we need to take a shot in this draft. I do not endorse moving up because iMO there is no clear cut can’t miss. Think about it. Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, and of course reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes......where were they taken? We need a true talent evaluator. Grier has proven he is not that guy. I am very apprehensive heading into this draft with this guy running the show. He has proven he stinks at drafting players. I really hope Coach Flores has a better grasp of talent evaluation. Because that is what has destroyed this franchise for the last 20 years.

I am good with taking Justin Herbert and letting him sit for a year learning the pro style offense. Let him watch Fitzmagic and learn from him. Let him learn how to play under center for a year. By the time the season is out of reach we can get him into the lineup for some live action heading into 2021. 

I am not opposed to taking Tua if he is available as well. We just need to keep drafting a QB until we hit on one. Look at what the Cardinals did. Rosen was a bust.....they knew it. They took another QB the following year. That is why Washington is talking Tua now. They probably think Haskins is not the guy.

More thoughts to come later today.

Edited by Todem
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Some great points in here. @Ministry of Pain the post about the failures at solving the QB issue those years there was a chance is so telling. I still hate Saban for not signing Brees, the last decade would have been completely different for us and likely for the Patriots. They take Brees and are successful maybe Saban stays and the revolving door of coaches and QB's is stopped. Even if Saban had burned out and left after 4 or 5 years we would have had an attractive base and gotten a solid coach. 2011 and "Suck for Luck" was going well until the team decided to get heart. Hopefully the third time is the charm, Tank for Tua looked lost before the injury when this team decided to find it's heart but maybe we got the reprieve we need.

@Todem couldn't agree more we need to keep taking QB's until we get it right because without one you are at best a 9-7 team and in purgatory.  I'd prefer to keep all our picks and get Tua at 5 but that is looking less likely, I could live with Herbert at 5 if Tua gets taken ahead of us but we need to come out with someone unless we can get a guarantee of Lawrence in 2021.  If, and it's a big if the medical stuff is 100% clean on Tua I'm not totally opposed to trading up and giving up the late first round pick. Had he stayed healthy and played out the year most likely it would be a heck of a debate who was going #1 overall between Tua and Burrow with an edge likely to Tua. So if you look at it that he is a #1 overall talent  then it's worth the price.  Here is my biggest worries, the Redskins take Tua and in a panic we trade up for Herbert with the Lions. If we get Herbert we need our other two first round picks even more. The other worry is after Tua goes 2 or 3 the Chargers jump us and trade up to Herbert at #4 and we panic and take Love at #5. Love is the most raw and to me riding the coattails of being compared to Mahomes but with more obvious flaws. Sure if he is even 90% of Mahomes I'd be fine with taking him at #5 but I don't think that is the case, he is raw and going to take more patience and more the pick at #18 but I don't see given the hype that he falls that far.

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1 hour ago, SwampDawg said:

Some great points in here. @Ministry of Pain the post about the failures at solving the QB issue those years there was a chance is so telling. I still hate Saban for not signing Brees, the last decade would have been completely different for us and likely for the Patriots. They take Brees and are successful maybe Saban stays and the revolving door of coaches and QB's is stopped. Even if Saban had burned out and left after 4 or 5 years we would have had an attractive base and gotten a solid coach. 2011 and "Suck for Luck" was going well until the team decided to get heart. Hopefully the third time is the charm, Tank for Tua looked lost before the injury when this team decided to find it's heart but maybe we got the reprieve we need.

@Todem couldn't agree more we need to keep taking QB's until we get it right because without one you are at best a 9-7 team and in purgatory.  I'd prefer to keep all our picks and get Tua at 5 but that is looking less likely, I could live with Herbert at 5 if Tua gets taken ahead of us but we need to come out with someone unless we can get a guarantee of Lawrence in 2021.  If, and it's a big if the medical stuff is 100% clean on Tua I'm not totally opposed to trading up and giving up the late first round pick. Had he stayed healthy and played out the year most likely it would be a heck of a debate who was going #1 overall between Tua and Burrow with an edge likely to Tua. So if you look at it that he is a #1 overall talent  then it's worth the price.  Here is my biggest worries, the Redskins take Tua and in a panic we trade up for Herbert with the Lions. If we get Herbert we need our other two first round picks even more. The other worry is after Tua goes 2 or 3 the Chargers jump us and trade up to Herbert at #4 and we panic and take Love at #5. Love is the most raw and to me riding the coattails of being compared to Mahomes but with more obvious flaws. Sure if he is even 90% of Mahomes I'd be fine with taking him at #5 but I don't think that is the case, he is raw and going to take more patience and more the pick at #18 but I don't see given the hype that he falls that far.

We reached for Tannehill. We saw how that turned out. Herbert is no reach at 5. Love is a total reach at 5. No way I take him their. The only way you take him there is if Flores and his staff are convinced he is a STUD in the future. But he is far more raw than Herbert.

 

Herbert is also a QB who will need some seasoning. And that is ok. Mahomes sat his first year. Nothing wrong with sitting a year and learning. 

 

I do not think Washington is taking Tua. I think they are throwing a smoke screen out there and see if they get an offer they can't refuse. But to me they are idiots if they do not draft Young.

 

More than likely they draft Young, another team may trade up to Detroit to grab Tua.......Herbert falls to us. I am 90% on that scenario. But draft day can get crazy though!!

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On 2/27/2020 at 10:45 PM, Ministry of Pain said:

1.05 OT or DB

1.18 QB-Love

1.26 RB-Swift 

2.07 EDGE-Terrell Lewis(Alabama) or Edge-Marlon Davidson(Auburn) 

2.24 C-Tyler Biadasz or C-Cesar Ruiz, they need a good one to anchor the OL. 

3.06 S-Kyle Dugger

Compensatory for RT-James left for Denver. So to be clear, Miami sits on 6 of the 1st 70 selections in a deep 2020 Draft. 

I’m adding a QB, RB, LT, Speed Edge guy, Strong Center, all of those need to be starters for this team and not misses like Harris was in 2018. 

If they trade up for Tua it will cost a fortune and they will lose out on so many other guys that can help them. I have heard Tua compared a little to Drew Brees and that’s going to make Phins fans cringe because we could have signed Brees and opted not to back when Nick Saban was coaching here. If Tua falls to Miami at No 5 and they want to take him then so be it but do not trade away all these picks when you have a chance to load up on young talent. 

Miami could also trade back at No 5 but I’ll wait to weigh in on that closer to the draft.

If anyone wants to add some players I quite possibly overlooked or failed to mention, please add them to the discussion. 

Again many ways to go but nothing wrong with Thomas from Georgia at No 5. Herbert to me is not a franchise QB and I wouldn't bet too much on him.

-Say Miami decides RB at 1.18 or maybe one of the top end WRs falls even though it's not a real position of need? 

Miami could still draft Love at the 1.26 and not lose any of their selections. Again, they can grab a speed Outside rush type and a Center to plug up that OL and you start looking around and suddenly that offense looks solid, the kind that can sustain drives and give the defense plenty of rest. 

Don't believe the hype on any of these QBs, in fact there will be several walking the streets in a couple weeks. Would Miami re-sign Tannehill? I can't imagine that happening. 

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6 hours ago, Todem said:

We reached for Tannehill. We saw how that turned out. Herbert is no reach at 5. Love is a total reach at 5. No way I take him their. The only way you take him there is if Flores and his staff are convinced he is a STUD in the future. But he is far more raw than Herbert.

 

Herbert is also a QB who will need some seasoning. And that is ok. Mahomes sat his first year. Nothing wrong with sitting a year and learning. 

 

I do not think Washington is taking Tua. I think they are throwing a smoke screen out there and see if they get an offer they can't refuse. But to me they are idiots if they do not draft Young.

 

More than likely they draft Young, another team may trade up to Detroit to grab Tua.......Herbert falls to us. I am 90% on that scenario. But draft day can get crazy though!!

Mich State 2018-Big Ten

2019

I don't get as excited about shipping the sherbert to Herbert. 

Not all of Love's throws are to wide open WRs, sometimes he drops it in tight windows and I like that for his development at the next level. I don't think he is done or at the top of his game yet. He has the arm, he needs to be better coached, he played at Utah State, cut him some slack. 

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On 2/28/2020 at 9:03 PM, wgoldsph said:

A few years ago Brock osweiler signed a huge contract with Houston then Houston gave him and a sixth plus the following year's 2nd to Cleveland for their compensatory 4th and to get his cap off the books.  I'm saying Miami should explore a similar trade for Bell.

The Jets are not giving away pick(s) to get rid of a contract they can get out of after this season. 

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On 2/27/2020 at 7:18 AM, SwampDawg said:

Miami said to be meeting with Swift, Dobbins, Taylor and Akers at the combine. Talking to all them would seem like a waste unless you plan on going RB with the late first or one of the second round picks.

That makes sense.

I am wondering if that is actually a good move for Miami at this time?

I think they have a lot of needs to fill and that they should prioritize QB and the linemen on both sides of the ball.

I have always thought RB should be a last piece a team adds once they feel good about most everything else.

Coaches think about this differently, as they know a reliable running game will help any team win games, and save their jobs maybe.

I just dont see Miami havingva good enough roster to invest a premium pick at RB right now.

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16 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

That makes sense.

I am wondering if that is actually a good move for Miami at this time?

I think they have a lot of needs to fill and that they should prioritize QB and the linemen on both sides of the ball.

I have always thought RB should be a last piece a team adds once they feel good about most everything else.

Coaches think about this differently, as they know a reliable running game will help any team win games, and save their jobs maybe.

I just dont see Miami havingva good enough roster to invest a premium pick at RB right now.

I agree, I don't take a RB with any of the first three picks I don't think there is enough value unless you are already close. To me the first three picks in some order depending how it falls need to be QB, OL Tackle and Edge Rusher.

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On 3/3/2020 at 4:26 PM, Ministry of Pain said:

Again many ways to go but nothing wrong with Thomas from Georgia at No 5. Herbert to me is not a franchise QB and I wouldn't bet too much on him.

-Say Miami decides RB at 1.18 or maybe one of the top end WRs falls even though it's not a real position of need? 

Miami could still draft Love at the 1.26 and not lose any of their selections. Again, they can grab a speed Outside rush type and a Center to plug up that OL and you start looking around and suddenly that offense looks solid, the kind that can sustain drives and give the defense plenty of rest. 

Don't believe the hype on any of these QBs, in fact there will be several walking the streets in a couple weeks. Would Miami re-sign Tannehill? I can't imagine that happening. 

Love won't be there at 26.  He won't be there at 18.

I agree with you that Herbert isn't a franchise qb.  To me Love is.  Just because in the past teams missed out on malhomes, l Jackson, and r Wilson is no excuse to make the same mistake.

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6 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Love won't be there at 26.  He won't be there at 18.

I agree with you that Herbert isn't a franchise qb.  To me Love is.  Just because in the past teams missed out on malhomes, l Jackson, and r Wilson is no excuse to make the same mistake.

Teams likely to Draft a QB

1.01-Cinci

1.03-Detroit...they have Staff so I think it's all a smoke screen to try and get leverage. 

1.05-Miami

-Cinci and Miami have not been linked to many free agent QBs to this point. Miami does have Fitz and Rosen on the roster. 

1.06-LA Chargers...my issue is that I don't see them hitching their wagon to a rookie. I see them bringing in a free agent, this team doesn't want to wait to develop a rookie, too much talent and they should win 10 games even if they are a distant 2nd to KC. 

1.07-Carolina...they say Cam is their man right now.

1.09-Jax Jags...one more season with the SB MVP yes/no?

1.13-Indianapolis Colts...their arc has changed drastically in the last 12 months. 

Chargers an Colts i see going more thru free agency. The Jags and Panthers could stand pat for now and add other pieces that would make them a better overall team. 

I'm trying to work this out on the chalkboard but I think with the available QBs vs open QB positions, there might not be as many QB hungry teams come draft day. I do agree that it has become super easy for teams to grab a QB anytime they want in the Top 10-20 picks, nobody gets upset. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Prior to last year, in order to draft a qb in the first round, if you didnt hold 1.01, you had to trade up. I believe that fact goes back 5-10 years. 2019 was an anomaly 

I wouldnt call that "super easy"

 

Miami can likely sit where they are and get a qb, but it may not be their first choice. They may very well need to trade up 1-2 spots

And now let's go back to them going 5-4 the last 9 after starting 0-7...the fan base was cheering them losing and gulping every time they won a game. We tried to put a spin on it that we found our coach but really all we did by winning a couple meaningless games is put ourselves in a position where we must leverage multiple picks. 

We need a LT, Center, RT, and probably an upgrade at both LG and RG. 

We need an RB1, and RB2, an RB3 and a practice squad RB.

We have no real threat at WR after Parker who whiffed his 1st 4 Seasons in the NFL

We need an entire Defensive line and this team tried Charles Harris in 2017 who has 3.5 sacks in 3 Seasons after being taken in the 1st round. Wilkins was taken high in the 1st last year and didn't really perform that well. I won't say he is a bust but this GM/President is not blazing a trail thru the draft. 

We need some real athleticism in our LB corp, we have a couple of average NFL LBs that likely should not be retained after their rookie deals expire, that's not good. 

We need some more DBs, even when we hit a home run like Fitzpatrick, he breathes he doesn't like it here and is traded, going on to an All Pro season with Pittsburgh. 

We stink, We stink, We stink...

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-Brady to ______

-Teddy Bridgewater to Chargers $25-$30M per season, lots of guaranteed money.  Also can see him in Tennessee

-Jameis Winston to Las Vegas

-How about Ryan Tannehill to the Patriots? You think I'm kidding?

-Foles and Brissett to me are not something you are thinking franchise with at this point however Jax and Indy have them on the books and they have guaranteed money locked up. 

These free agent QBs landing on some of the teams that pundits and folks in here seem to think are wide open and ready for the 2020 Draft, things will look much different by the time April gets here in a few weeks. 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Prior to last year, in order to draft a qb in the first round, if you didnt hold 1.01, you had to trade up. I believe that fact goes back 5-10 years. 2019 was an anomaly 

I wouldnt call that "super easy"

 

Miami can likely sit where they are and get a qb, but it may not be their first choice. They may very well need to trade up 1-2 spots

I think they need to be aggressive at 2 spots...I'll say Offensive Tackle but really they could only hope to fill the RT spot and it's going to cost North of $12M a season but they have the money. 

The 2nd place I would back the truck up is Speed Edge, be it a DE or OLB. Miami I guess is going 3-4 and so they need a couple speedy OLB types. The DL in a 3-4 doesn't rack up many sacks and a lot of times they almost look more like 3 run blocking beefy DTs than a DE-NT-DE, that's not going ot put a lot of pressure on the QB so they need to overhaul the LBs more than I am even suggesting. 

OT-Edge(DE/OLB) those are the to key areas I would spend. Next I would try and get one of the RB that is already into Year 2-3 of a big contract and you can just pay the yearly salary of like $5M-$8M a season and get 1 of those guys to pair with a rookie knowing the higher price guy could be gone as early as next year with very little cap hit. 

Anything outside of this seems like a waste when you are loaded in draft picks mostly because you traded what little talent you did find away. To roll all that up to move 2-3 spots in the draft and then have nothing else to work with to build around seems wasteful. Miami must build their corp thru the draft, they have to for sustained long term success. 

Miami has the money to go out and reload, no argument from me but that has never worked here. Didn't work under Shula(Free Agents $$$) '93-'95 his job got to be a hot seat for JJ in waiting, Jimmy Johnson, Wanny, I can keep going but it's a recipe for disaster here. 

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Random thoughts…

 

Grier has been the shopper at the direction of the chef (to use the Parcells analogy) he’s missed some for sure, like every GM does, but he’s hit as well.  I get the feeling like Flores and Grier are in sync more than Gase/Grier were… perhaps it’s me believing that Gase misused the talent making the players fit the system and Flores getting more out of an inferior roster.  I just think Flores knows exactly what he wants out of positions more than Gase did and because of that Grier can make better choices.  

We have to go through FA before we talk about drafting beyond the first pick… I certainly hope they make smart choices in FA and spread their spending out. 

I’ll admit I don’t have a full enough grasp on Flores system at every position to be able to tell which FA they will or should be targeting...DL play multiple positions,  lots of DB's man CBs 

Bell/RB I wouldn’t pay the money or picks price for Bell, or any other pay day RB. 

Wilkins- I think he had a good rookie year.  Not everything is in the box score

Rowe- He’s viewed as a safety long term and was re-signed as such.   

DBs- this system relies on DBs and they need more, my guess they'll come away from FA and the draft with a good number of them. 

I’m in camp Tua and would absolutely move up to get him… (save an exorbitant cost and frankly haven’t decided what that tipping point is for me). I think the posturing by the team and Tua is an unspoken agreement trying to keep the price down.

 

Miami is in the catbird seat for teams trying to move up if WAS or DET want any of the top 3 D Young, Okudah or Simmons… they can’t fall further down unless NYG select Willis Irfs...which *should* mean Miami won't have to do anything too crazy to move up.  

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5 hours ago, TripleThreat said:

Random thoughts…

 

Grier has been the shopper at the direction of the chef (to use the Parcells analogy) he’s missed some for sure, like every GM does, but he’s hit as well.  I get the feeling like Flores and Grier are in sync more than Gase/Grier were… perhaps it’s me believing that Gase misused the talent making the players fit the system and Flores getting more out of an inferior roster.  I just think Flores knows exactly what he wants out of positions more than Gase did and because of that Grier can make better choices.  

We have to go through FA before we talk about drafting beyond the first pick… I certainly hope they make smart choices in FA and spread their spending out. 

I’ll admit I don’t have a full enough grasp on Flores system at every position to be able to tell which FA they will or should be targeting...DL play multiple positions,  lots of DB's man CBs 

Bell/RB I wouldn’t pay the money or picks price for Bell, or any other pay day RB. 

Wilkins- I think he had a good rookie year.  Not everything is in the box score

Rowe- He’s viewed as a safety long term and was re-signed as such.   

DBs- this system relies on DBs and they need more, my guess they'll come away from FA and the draft with a good number of them. 

I’m in camp Tua and would absolutely move up to get him… (save an exorbitant cost and frankly haven’t decided what that tipping point is for me). I think the posturing by the team and Tua is an unspoken agreement trying to keep the price down.

 

Miami is in the catbird seat for teams trying to move up if WAS or DET want any of the top 3 D Young, Okudah or Simmons… they can’t fall further down unless NYG select Willis Irfs...which *should* mean Miami won't have to do anything too crazy to move up.  

I think when push comes to shove the Dolphins can move up for the cost of a 3rd round pick, which isnt bad.

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

What do Miami fans think of this scenario... reading mutual interest between Gordon and Miami

I can see how this actually makes sense

Never understood why a young rebuilding team, with an abundance of draft picks, would go after a 27 year old RB who will be looking for top dollar.  He will be 29 before they become competitive and they will be looking to replace him.

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21 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

What do Miami fans think of this scenario... reading mutual interest between Gordon and Miami

I can see how this actually makes sense

I am fully onboard.  Plenty of cap space, likely young QB coming in.  Sign him to a front loaded deal that makes him easily cuttable in 2 years, and in the meantime Tua (hopefully) has a reliable veteran back to lean on, and we don't have to use an early pick on a RB.

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Also as an aside I dislike the notion that because we have a lot of early picks we can afford to use one as a luxury pick on a RB.  Same kind of thing we saw with Oakland last year.  We traded a franchise left tackle for that late 1st round pick.  It's not a luxury pick.

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Byron Jones is the best Corner in Football? 

Dude has been in the league 5 years and has 2 interceptions, 6 pass deflections total last year, I'm kind of flabbergasted they shot off like that. And $67M in guaranteed money I was reading? He fleeced the Dolphins and there was a bidding war for this guy amongst a few teams none of them true contenders...I dunno...this feels more like a C-/D+, we already have guys on the roster including one of the highest paid until they inked this guy. They had Rowe under contract, presumably he was going to start. Seems like a huge waste of money but they had piles to burn. 

OLB-Kyle Van Noy...28 yrs old, 18 sacks last 3 years in New Eng, also a lot of tackles and hits on the QB, 34 over that time which is more than anything Miami has on their roster. I would say that where I thought they might not get to the LBs as quickly as they wanted, that time frame was sped up a lot today. It's a lot of money but Miami needed to add something on the EDGE and he was I think the 16th highest rated Edge guy on PFF. I know he was a big part of that defense and he competed in 4 straight Super Bowls, helped them win 2 of them? How could you not want that guy in a Miami uniform playing for Flores who coached him in New England and is familiar with what he will bring to the Phins right now? I love this move and while he isn't cheap, I like the move a lot. "A" as far as I'm concerned when you see how many things he fills, he's not just a 1-trick pony who rushes the QB. 

DE/Edge Shaq Lawson...Here is what I like, 25 years old and seems like he is getting better, numbers have improved last couple years. He has had some success and maybe this team feels they can be the ones to take him to the next level or the coaching staff that can push him to double digit sacks. I also like that he will have Van Noy as a teammate and this defense starts to get flexible some. Again, we were playing Charles Harris and he has had ZERO Success since we took him in the 1st. We needed these guys desperately and I think the money will be well spent and well earned. "B" based on what is available. It's not like Miami can just grab any player they want. Most truly premier pass rush types are never leaving the team that drafts them 1st. 

OG-Ereck Flowers...He is a former Univ of Miami guy who actually blew off his Senior Year to enter the draft and was looking like a future Left Tackle but that was disastrous in New York and eventually he was kicked inside to OG. I don't know if Miami is thinking OG or RT here. I hated seeing Conklin not come here. Of the gobs of money the Miami Dolphins shelled out today, did this guy deserve $10 Million a year after being a bust...was taken 9th Overall which isn't his fault but still he hasn't exactly been stellar. Love my Canes but keeping it real here. Grade "C-/D+" but I hope I'm wrong. I know he played in Washington last year, not sure how big his impact was felt there. 

In theory Miami did what I wanted them to do, they got some type of pass rush for their 3-4 and they managed to bring in someone to compete at RT, that's what my gut says although Miami could use help at any spot on the OL. They decided to ink a DB to some big money, I just don't see a lot of need for it at the moment. Maybe they plan on dangling a player or two if they need to make a move Draft Night...don't put it past them to trade Xavien Howard if need be or really anyone on that roster.

$12.5M plus $16.5M plus $10M plus $10M...so they spent about $50M of the $90M they have at the moment? I thought Albert Wilson would surely be cut...maybe they are waiting. He is set to make $11M this season, just think about that. 

I do like the LB/Edge types we are bringing in and maybe I'll warm up to Byron Jones if this defense takes shape quickly. I also think it shows Miami is NOT committed to QB at No 5.

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Xavien Howard racked up 11 Interceptions in 2 seasons '17-'18. Usually you have a run like that if you are a premier DB and then word gets out and they stop throwing your way as much.  

Jones has a total of 2 Interceptions in 5 years, his last one was in 2017, the Miami Dolphins just made this guy the highest paid Corner and he hasn't had an interception since 2017. 

Miami has won the off season so many times in the last 20-25 years, it's never really translated to a lot of wins for the team. 

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  • SwampDawg changed the title to *** Official 2021 Dolphins Thread - Phins 1-0, Jets, Bills and Pats all 0-1...Say What !!

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