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*** Official 2021 Dolphins Thread - Shaking and baking for draft position!


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I would be pretty surprised if Miami didn't take a WR in the top ten, although I think it is likely they trade back a few spots. They need to put Tua in a position to be successful, particularly given the unusually harsh treatment he is getting in the media. I just don't think these current WR options are good enough.

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i have watched every bama game for many years.  Tua is the man.  You guys are gonna love him

No dog in the fight as I have no love or hate for Miami, but you guys are killing this draft. Congratulations. 

Congrats guys. You got a coach and a qb. That's more than half of the battle right there.

1 hour ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Wide Receiver:

DeVante Parker-

Albert Wilson-

Jakeem Grant-

Allen Hurns-

Preston Williams-

Kirk Merritt-

Lynn Bowden-

I think the phins take one or two WRs in this draft, the question will be "who" and "when"?  The senior bowl kind of cemented this in my mind, especially with Smith and Najee Harris being there.

So, there are two scenarios:  Stay at 3, or trade down.

First:  Stay at 3:  The argument there becomes Sewell, Smith, or Chase?  Let's take sewell out if the equation for the moment:  Chase is a similar style WR to Parker and Williams, so really all you are doing there is a reshuffle.  He doesn't really separate but he does high point and fight for the ball (Again, Parker or williams).  Smith is a separator.  That is what Tua needs, so he makes logical sense in that case, but are other guys who will be at 18 (or in the second round) the same type of player?  The senior Bowl should have given them some clarity there.

Second:  Trade down:  Assuming someone needs a QB bad enough (and plenty do), do you move down to 6,7, or 8? (depending on the team).  Moving to 8 (Panthers) means Miami likes Smith, Chase, and likely Waddle about the same, so trade down for future picks, and take whichever one falls to you. Consolation prize if they all go before 8 is Parsons or the other O Linemen (Slater?).

18 then becomes O LIne (Creed Humphrey), an Edge rusher, or Harris. If the phins got enough draft capital from moving down from 3, they could move back into the 1st round if need be to get someone if they fall (and get that 5th year on the contract).

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On 1/28/2021 at 2:09 PM, Ministry of Pain said:

I have been forthright about a trade down since the get go of securing the No 3 pick, impct QBs available, they should get a King's ransom, Jax won't likely trade, jets either and that makes Miami prime for anyone wanting that HoF Left Tackle that won't really change the arc of most teams, they can find someone, anyone that wants Fields if he still available, number of QBs, then there are overpriced WRs that I hope they pass on...please don't burn high selections on prima donnas, not the make up of this team. 

I'm not sure exactly where we disagree but yeah i know we are not lined up perfect, but the main talking points think we are pretty similar. 

I think (to be fair), even if we cloned dan marino in a lab and put him back on the team there would be people unhappy with that (hell, they wanted to trade marino in his prime so dolphin fans are crazy).  Watson and Mahomes are likely the only QBs dolphin fans would be satisfied with and even then they'd be on a short leash.

 

Let's face it, dolphin fans want the qb (like Dan) who will throw a 50 yard TD on 4th and 3 rather than make a 4 yard completion for a first down. (marino to fryar)

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I'm near ready for a complete overhaul of the WR unit...

re: Albert Wilson: after sitting out 2020 I'm left wondering if there's still meat on the bone. Injured in 18 with the hip, it limited him in 19.  I found this tidbit interesting.  

Quote

per https://www.lockedondolphins.com/dolphins/miamis-mr-versatile-albert-wilson/

When Wilson went down in week-seven (in 2018), he was the NFL’s leader in yards-after-catch and yards-after-contact among all wide receivers

 

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also... OC decision has been made.  continuity after all.  

Quote

Ian Rapoport

@RapSheet

·

1h

New #Dolphins QBs coach Charlie Frye will work directly with the QBs. As a former college OC, I’m told he will also have some input in the offensive vision, as Miami plans to blend NFL and college-style concepts. Similar to what a lot of the top offenses in the NFL do.

Quote Tweet

Ian Rapoport

@RapSheet

· 1h

Sources: The #Dolphins are naming offensive co-coordinators. RBs coach Eric Studesville and QBs coach George Godsey will combine to do the job, as the two strong internal candidates earn promotions.

bolded for emphasis...

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3 hours ago, TripleThreat said:

also... OC decision has been made.  continuity after all.  

bolded for emphasis...

That sounds like full steam ahead on Tua if I am reading that right. Doesn't matter how I feel about Tua, Miami is moving forward.  I am a little underwhelmed by the hiring of all these parts, looks like Miami is going to continue to build from the inside out and I expect like others that they will trade down and get quite a haul from whoever. 

I would say Miami is a non factor in any media QB talk at this point, all just hot air at the end of the day it seems. 

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Moving right along to the next spot...

TE

Miami is pretty set here but it's worth going over some things like the expectations they will extend Gesicki as early as this off season making him likely a Top5 paid TE if you give sites like PFF any credence. Gesicki is entering Year 4 of his rookie deal, Miami could also opt to exercise a 5th year option but that seems unlikely. Mike should remain a Phin, if he's not what we are building towards or with then what's the point? You are talking though of around $8M per season give or take for him. 

Adam Shaheen is signed thru 2022 and was in fact given a 2 yr extension back in October 2020.  He is a solid role player at TE as well as a decent run blocker and can catch the football when targeted. 

Durham Smythe 4th Rd pick in 2018, likely on the last year of his rookie deal. Miami could simply release him if thy find something in the draft, keep in mind they can also recoup a pick if he leaves and signs elsewhere in '22. The focus should be on Gesicki. 

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I've posted about the OL but all 3 Rookies showed something at different points of the season. Flowers is here for the next couple years, cost as much or more to release him and he had a solid season overall until he was injured late. Miami needs to find a Center and then they have Dieter entering Year of his rookie deal, guy has shown nothing and might not be here next season, of course we thought that potentially this past season. The other guy is Jesse Davis, due roughly $4.5-$5M, he can be released at some point for a cool $1M. He does provide leadership and depth, he could challenge still for a starting spot and Miami needs a couple more live bodies thru the draft to push this first unit plus they need a Center. Still, they have 3 solid starters all on rookie deals, they can afford to buy a Center. FYI, Karras is reportedly worth $10M per year on the high side, as much as a 3-4 yr deal, just don't see Miami investing that kind of bread. I look for them to be a player in the 2nd Round of the Draft looking to find a Rookie Center or Guard they can turn into a Center.  GA, AL, OSU all have Centers entering the Draft that the Phins might have an interest in. 

1-2 more OL throughout the draft but I don't anticipate them going Tackle at that 3 spot, if they did then I would assume he is going to play RT to protect Tua and maybe kick the whole right side in a spot and turn Kindley into a Center? Just a thought and not one that would excite most folks. 

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On 1/28/2021 at 10:00 AM, Ministry of Pain said:

QB: Let's deal with reality and facts. The NFL Clock is ticking from the minute you take a QB in the 1st round, you also can get lucky of late in the 2nd and even 3rd round in the last 8-10 years. Once the QB is 3 years into their rookie deal, if they have had any success at all, they feel the right to get an early jump on contract negotiations and that is technically the soonest that any of them can get a big contract, Mahomes sat year 1, lit it up year 2 and 3, got paid immediately and quite hansom.  I don't think Josh Allen for arguments sake should get anywhere close to what Mahomes got, that said I expect Allen to see some type of contract extension put in front of him by Buffalo...how much? More than Watson got and maybe a 4-5 year deal but he could see a longer deal if bigger money is involved. 

The point is, I cannot imagine Tua being paid $30M+ per year 24 months from now and that's really how you gotta measure whether he will be the right fit. Part of me would like Miami to admit defeat quickly here and somehow use Tua as a trade chip with all these picks they have and upgrade the position immediately. The downside is if that involves Watson or Rodgers or anyone else that seems to be a good fit according to the Media, you are talking about $35M-$40M per year and that changes the look of the team. I would love to see another year of filling in the potholes on defense and offense as they continue to try and find an answer at QB.  

I don't believe Houston will trade Watson, fellow franchise-owners have to be in this guys ear telling him to hold on to his franchise or they are going to be in a tailspin they might never come out of. 

 

On 1/28/2021 at 11:06 AM, Ministry of Pain said:

3 1st round picks including 1 from next year plus our 2 in this year's draft plus Tua plus a 2nd? Both 2nds? 

Is there a too much point? I think it's impossible to get a TOP 5 QB AND WATSON IMO is TOP 3 possibly at this stage. Rare blend of mobility, arm plus can read defenses and coverages, has already shown he can exploit talent at teh WR spot, would love to see him paired up with what we already have and then build around him. We won 10 with so so QB play, Watson would make this a 12-4 team easily. We could try and compete with Buffalo who is going to look different once they pay Allen. 

The $$$ is what frightens me and having to go without at some key defensive spots. 

I do like what Miami is already doing and playoffs are not my concern right now, just want to be a better core team that anyone can come in and take the controls and succeed with what we are putting in place.

And i posted about Howard as a potential trade piece as well, guess ESPN is reading our clippings and forming entire columns on it. 

Watson prefers Miami

I am just dumbfounded(entire Watson situation) and part of me thinks this is simply great media click bait until Watson is either moved or we get thru the Draft but that's going to be nonstop weeks of up and down trade talks. 

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Miami spends the 2nd most in the NFL on their Defensive Backs, all of their starters make a lot of money. The Bucs on the other hand, they spend almost the least in the NFL and they have done it thru the DRAFT and most of their starters were on rookie contracts in the Super Bowl, that's incredible the return they have gotten. 

Miami spent a lot on Jones last off season and we are stuck with him for several more seasons, maybe stuck is too strong but he didn't live up to the amount of money they paid him and he will never be the interception turnover guy that Howard is on the other side. Miami also went into the draft and grabbed a couple more DBs, they looked decent but nobody has really stood out in the 2 seasons Flores has been here. 

No.3 Pick in the Draft...I nominate Patrick Surtain II, and while I don't know we need to spend a 3 pick to get him, I'm also reading where he will be the first one off the board potentially. I think Miami should invest in their secondary thru the draft like they did with Howard and start finding some starters who can play by Year 2 so we have a couple seasons where we don't have to pay them $15M+ a season, Jones is making like $17M this next year. We have tied up a lot of money but I do think in the modern NFL you need more than just average DBs if you are going to compete. 

 

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Jason Sanders was signed to an extension. Sanders was one of the most reliable kickers last season and has been great since he arrived. 

Sanders made 580k, 570k, 750k, he was signed to a 5 yr/$22M extension, good for him but it was nice paying one of the better kickers on a rookie salary. 

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Draft Scenario #1

-Miami trades down to #5 with Cinci who wants Sewell and trades their 2nd round pick plus something to move up 2 spots, I'll even say a 2022 2nd Round pick on top maybe but Miami is likely to move down and I don't see them taking Sewell at #3. I also feel Miami will try and go after the Center from Green Bay, Corey Linsley and also don't be surprised if you see them try and get Aaron Jones. Hate to see them spend on a RB but they need help and he would solve a lot of problems. 

-Next, Miami will listen to anyone again at No 5 and if a QB is still in play it's possible Miami gets talked into trading down again but I believe they could go bold at #5 and perhaps even make a stretch selection of a couple picks but it's possible they take Kyle Pitts from Florida at TE who is a monster and a mismatch from hell. Run a 2 TE set most of the time with what should be a solid OL and perhaps a good lead back with Jones and also Gaskin still in the cuts would make a nice 1-2 punch at RB, give Tua a couple of TE targets, he seems to like those TEs a lot and it gives Miami an extra blocker at times when they need it. 

-Miami would still have the 18, 35, 37 and 50 ahead of them in the Draft to toy with. And they could still get their WR at the top of the 2nd to pair with Parker. They could also take Sewell themselves and create a lethal OL, there's a lot of ways this can go. 

-I also like Surtain II at No 5 if Miami wants to try and go a different way. 

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14 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Draft Scenario #1

-Miami trades down to #5 with Cinci who wants Sewell and trades their 2nd round pick plus something to move up 2 spots, I'll even say a 2022 2nd Round pick on top maybe but Miami is likely to move down and I don't see them taking Sewell at #3. I also feel Miami will try and go after the Center from Green Bay, Corey Linsley and also don't be surprised if you see them try and get Aaron Jones. Hate to see them spend on a RB but they need help and he would solve a lot of problems. 

-Next, Miami will listen to anyone again at No 5 and if a QB is still in play it's possible Miami gets talked into trading down again but I believe they could go bold at #5 and perhaps even make a stretch selection of a couple picks but it's possible they take Kyle Pitts from Florida at TE who is a monster and a mismatch from hell. Run a 2 TE set most of the time with what should be a solid OL and perhaps a good lead back with Jones and also Gaskin still in the cuts would make a nice 1-2 punch at RB, give Tua a couple of TE targets, he seems to like those TEs a lot and it gives Miami an extra blocker at times when they need it. 

-Miami would still have the 18, 35, 37 and 50 ahead of them in the Draft to toy with. And they could still get their WR at the top of the 2nd to pair with Parker. They could also take Sewell themselves and create a lethal OL, there's a lot of ways this can go. 

-I also like Surtain II at No 5 if Miami wants to try and go a different way. 

Here's another projection from South Beach, which is hopping right now due to Spring Break and people up north fleeing the cold and the lockdowns. There are so many possibilities in the draft this year - maybe more than any in recent history. Many of my thoughts are influenced by Herald writer Barry Jackson, a great beat writer who uses lots of analytics and has many Dolphin connections.

  • LB Kyle Van Noy was just released to create cap space. He was good last year, and a major reason the defense improved. He was A replacement needs to be found - maybe the LB from ND with pick 18. This would upend previous draft projections. Note that KVN "was second among all NFL linebackers in pressures (29, one behind Demario Davis) and had 69 tackles and six sacks, six passes defended and two forced fumbles." But he wasn't that good vs the pass. 
  • Our pick #3. I don't think any team will jump CIN at #5 to get Sewell. More likely, a lower ranked team will trade up to get Fields (or Lance) at #3. That would net even more draft capital. If we stay put, I see us drafting WR Chase. If we move down to #8 (CAR) or #9 (DEN), I could see us drafting Kyle Pitts. Gisecki has been very good, but he's in the last year of his cheap rookie contract and Pitts is supposed to be great. The combo could be special in 2021.
  • At #18, we'll draft an impact player at DL (Rousseau, UM) or LB (Owusu-Koramoah, ND). Probably LB with KVN released. 

The cap space we save with the release of KVN may help us go more aggressively after a free agent WR. I prefer that Miami not go after Arron Jones and instead take a RB in the 2nd round - maybe Javonte Williams with pick 2.18, who's been rising like a rocket.

With our #2.04 pick (not 2.03 - why?), I see the OL addressed, unless they take Sewell at #3 (unlikely). Tankathon has multiple OL picks early in the 2nd round

 

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Kyle Van Noy is a major surprise and I just do not understand. He had $30M in Guaranteed Money and still is something around $5M dead cap hit vs his salary, not understanding why they wanted him off the team so quickly, makes little sense to me. Maybe the worst move I've seen the Flores regime make to this point and i still won't pass judgement until i learn more but on the surface this is a head scratcher.

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22 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Here's another projection from South Beach, which is hopping right now due to Spring Break and people up north fleeing the cold and the lockdowns. There are so many possibilities in the draft this year - maybe more than any in recent history. Many of my thoughts are influenced by Herald writer Barry Jackson, a great beat writer who uses lots of analytics and has many Dolphin connections.

  • LB Kyle Van Noy was just released to create cap space. He was good last year, and a major reason the defense improved. He was A replacement needs to be found - maybe the LB from ND with pick 18. This would upend previous draft projections. Note that KVN "was second among all NFL linebackers in pressures (29, one behind Demario Davis) and had 69 tackles and six sacks, six passes defended and two forced fumbles." But he wasn't that good vs the pass. 
  • Our pick #3. I don't think any team will jump CIN at #5 to get Sewell. More likely, a lower ranked team will trade up to get Fields (or Lance) at #3. That would net even more draft capital. If we stay put, I see us drafting WR Chase. If we move down to #8 (CAR) or #9 (DEN), I could see us drafting Kyle Pitts. Gisecki has been very good, but he's in the last year of his cheap rookie contract and Pitts is supposed to be great. The combo could be special in 2021.
  • At #18, we'll draft an impact player at DL (Rousseau, UM) or LB (Owusu-Koramoah, ND). Probably LB with KVN released. 

The cap space we save with the release of KVN may help us go more aggressively after a free agent WR. I prefer that Miami not go after Arron Jones and instead take a RB in the 2nd round - maybe Javonte Williams with pick 2.18, who's been rising like a rocket.

With our #2.04 pick (not 2.03 - why?), I see the OL addressed, unless they take Sewell at #3 (unlikely). Tankathon has multiple OL picks early in the 2nd round

 

Philly IMHO will jump all over Pitts with Ertz/Gedert thing coming to its end there. So if Miami wants him they gotta get him early. 

Also i don't like being pigeon holed because they released KVN, that just doesn't seem wise going into the Draft. 

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2 hours ago, TripleThreat said:

I'm becoming more at ease with Pitts at 3 or 5 or 6, if there's a trade back. I haven't done a lot in terms of which WR may be available at 18 but I think Pitts can be dominant.  

Starting Offense potential in 2021

LT-Jackson, LG-Flowers($10M to cut/release him and he's not bad), Center-Linsley from Green Bay(#1 on PFF), RG-Kindley, RT-Hunt

TE1-Gesick, TE2-Pitts(Rookie)

WR1-Parker, WR2-Elijah Moore-Rookie they take top of the 2nd Rd, book it!

RB1-Aaron Jones  

QB-Tua 

Just a potential look of the team

 

Kyle Van Noy: Miami only has 1 OLB with Van Ginkel, think they might have to make a move in free agency and despite eating $5M in a dead cap hit for KVN, they must be eye balling someone they think they can get in here that is perhaps better. KVN was very good as a leader but 3 sacks of his 6 came vs Cinci in December at home...he was not that good in pass coverage, very good in run support and QB pressures were there at times. 

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relevant to KVN and lowered cap

 

Dianna Russini

@diannaESPN

·

1h

Just texted with an NFL head coach about the upcoming cuts and what he expects… “It’s going to be a massacre next week all around the league”

 

@diannaESPN

·

3h

As we close in on the free agency signing period, I keep hearing more and more players will be added to an already competitive market as teams are making very tough decisions regarding their salary cap.

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4 minutes ago, TripleThreat said:

relevant to KVN and lowered cap

 

Dianna Russini

@diannaESPN

·

1h

Just texted with an NFL head coach about the upcoming cuts and what he expects… “It’s going to be a massacre next week all around the league”

 

@diannaESPN

·

3h

As we close in on the free agency signing period, I keep hearing more and more players will be added to an already competitive market as teams are making very tough decisions regarding their salary cap.

First round picks are very valuable with that extra year of control. Can Miami convert 2 first round picks into 3?

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50 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

First round picks are very valuable with that extra year of control. Can Miami convert 2 first round picks into 3?

Tua-Jackson-Igbo was the 6-18-30 last year...how do you really feel about those 3 guys right now? 

Honestly, I'm scratching my head looking at it all...we didn't really land 3 All Pros last season that I can see....hope they make some serious progress this year. 

I know Phinsfans are difficult to reason with but you can't be that excited about what they did and I'm not that confident this season to be honest. 

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1 hour ago, TripleThreat said:

relevant to KVN and lowered cap

 

Dianna Russini

@diannaESPN

·

1h

Just texted with an NFL head coach about the upcoming cuts and what he expects… “It’s going to be a massacre next week all around the league”

 

@diannaESPN

·

3h

As we close in on the free agency signing period, I keep hearing more and more players will be added to an already competitive market as teams are making very tough decisions regarding their salary cap.

She texts with Coach Kingsbury, don't get too excited about what she spews on Twitter. 

I used to like her when I first discovered her but she has gone from a seasoning on the main dish to actually being the main course and I find her to be wrong a lot. 

That said, tough cuts are coming for sure. Miami's only other real option to say good bye to Ogbah which costs them zero in dead ca hit and saves the $7.5M and yeah I would cry if we lost him or let him go but this team was stripped bare and they did a lot thru free agency to make things look better, you pay a price when you cannot replenish thru the Draft. 

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2 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Tua-Jackson-Igbo was the 6-18-30 last year...how do you really feel about those 3 guys right now? 

Honestly, I'm scratching my head looking at it all...we didn't really land 3 All Pros last season that I can see....hope they make some serious progress this year. 

I know Phinsfans are difficult to reason with but you can't be that excited about what they did and I'm not that confident this season to be honest. 

With the Dolphin's 3rd pick of the NFL draft, the the entire Alabama receiving core picks: Mac Jones!!!

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndySlater/status/1367212798644748288

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16 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

With the Dolphin's 3rd pick of the NFL draft, the the entire Alabama receiving core picks: Mac Jones!!!

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndySlater/status/1367212798644748288

That's terrible but they also want to pump up Mac Jones on the Draft Board so he gets taken as early as possible. I see at least 3-4 QBs that could invite a small bidding war for their services. 

From reports, the Miami Dolphins have put together an OC/QB Coach combo that will also try and work in some college part of the playbook and that's why i think Miami would be best served in a 2 TE formation similar to what Brady was doing for a while up in New England where Flores was a coach. People don't seem to understand he came to New Eng when he was super young and actually started not in coaching but scouting assistant for several years and worked his way up. He might be 40 but he was with New England when they won their 3rd Super Bowl back in like '03. 

I'm starting to feel like they want Pitts a lot and want to milk a pick and slide a couple spots if they can. Philly would also love to have Pitts but maybe the new coaching staff there isn't so TE heavy in their offensive philosophy, we don't really know yet. 

--Get another 2nd if you can out of Cinci or if you like another player besides Pitts trade down and get another 2nd because they seem to whiff on 1st rounders and have better success in the 2nd and some later rounds. 

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21 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Tua-Jackson-Igbo was the 6-18-30 last year...how do you really feel about those 3 guys right now? 

Honestly, I'm scratching my head looking at it all...we didn't really land 3 All Pros last season that I can see....hope they make some serious progress this year. 

I know Phinsfans are difficult to reason with but you can't be that excited about what they did and I'm not that confident this season to be honest. 

well, I feel fine with them to be honest, but again you have the Herbert shadow that casts over that so...

Tua -debated to death.  Not getting into it

Jackson - looks like a player and while he likely isn't Tunsil, he certainly is a solid rookie

Igbo - rookie corners are never good. (ok, seldom good, but mostly they are lighter fluid).  The kid got thrust into a starting role week 1 and it showed, but he battled. Both the corner contracts have an out after this year (X and Jones) so Assuming X stays around (his new contract demand means we either take dead money this year or in the future) then Igbo may be in line for Jones spot for 2022.

Phins loaded up on defensive swiss army guys last year to see which one of them panned out.  KVN was good at rushing the passer and bad at defending the pass. They have other guys who can step in to rush the passer, but they need LBs (or hybrid safety style guys) who can cover.  This draft has a bunch of these guys, as will free agency.

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Is Miami one of the few teams that has virtually nobody they have to franchise tag?

The Dolphins have rarely used it in the last 20 years and quite frankly have not had the type of players you would really want to use it on. They had DT-Randy Starks in 2013, Landry in 2018 before shipping him to Cleveland. 

15 teams used it in 2020 just for comparison. some years there are more like 5-6 who are designated. 

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To be fair, Miami hasn't really had the talent all of these years to use the franchise tag on, and they also were pretty good at locking up the few players they thought mattered.

Welker was a transition tag (back then those existed) and they locked up tannyhill with an extension (and Howard too) before it got to that point.  I assume that if they do not get a deal together with Gesecki that he'd be the most likely player to get franchised next year, mainly bc TE franchise numbers are low.  Baker may be another guy who they may use it on if they don't work out a deal, but after that, I don't see it (DT as a position is too fluid and too high priced to use it there)

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23 hours ago, Gatorman said:

well, I feel fine with them to be honest, but again you have the Herbert shadow that casts over that so...

Tua -debated to death.  Not getting into it

Jackson - looks like a player and while he likely isn't Tunsil, he certainly is a solid rookie

Igbo - rookie corners are never good. (ok, seldom good, but mostly they are lighter fluid).  The kid got thrust into a starting role week 1 and it showed, but he battled. Both the corner contracts have an out after this year (X and Jones) so Assuming X stays around (his new contract demand means we either take dead money this year or in the future) then Igbo may be in line for Jones spot for 2022.

Phins loaded up on defensive swiss army guys last year to see which one of them panned out.  KVN was good at rushing the passer and bad at defending the pass. They have other guys who can step in to rush the passer, but they need LBs (or hybrid safety style guys) who can cover.  This draft has a bunch of these guys, as will free agency.

I mostly agree. Jackson and Igbo seemed like high upside swings on raw players at premium positions. Both struggles some and flashed some, about what you would expect from those type of picks. Year 2 will really tell the tale on whether they were good picks or not. Same with Tua (though that is more injury and weapons related). 

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23 hours ago, jtd13 said:

I mostly agree. Jackson and Igbo seemed like high upside swings on raw players at premium positions. Both struggles some and flashed some, about what you would expect from those type of picks. Year 2 will really tell the tale on whether they were good picks or not. Same with Tua (though that is more injury and weapons related). 

one of the big Tua-lovers on the phins beat (for the athletic) showed a bunch of comps for first year QBs and Tua actually looked better than brees on the comp.

Methinks that Dolphin fans are spoiled by the fact that Marino was an instant hit.  I think that it the expectation from the fan base is that anyone we pick should be white hot from the get go and expect every QB to be Marino, Wilson, Herbert, Mahomes (even though he sat for a year), Big Ben, Dak, or Brady.

Most Qbs are more like Carr, Tannyhill, etc where it takes a few years for them to hit their stride.  Josh Allen looked like a bad version of Brett Favre until he turned into Brett Favre with legs. (Hell, Brett Favre looked like a bad version of Brett Favre until he was traded out of Atlanta)

I have no problem with the coaching staff going after watson (the best comp is I have no problem with the heat trading Herro for Beal), but if that never materializes go all in on Tua and grab another QB in the draft (not high but say Jones if he falls into the second round or some of the Day three guys) as a project.  (personally I think every smart NFL team should be grabbing a QB in one of the top three rounds every three years but I think I'm in the minority there)

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On 3/6/2021 at 11:16 AM, Gatorman said:

Methinks that Dolphin fans are spoiled by the fact that Marino was an instant hit. 

Tell us more after 22 years of famine and not a Lombardi trophy to boast since Griese in '73, please tell us how spoiled we are as Miami fans, i gotta hear more. 

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according to Cam Wolfe it’s a late round swap. 
dude needs to get his head on straight. 
 

*Late round pick swap. It’s going to be up to Wilson if he wants to salvage his NFL career but he gets a second change in Miami.

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1 hour ago, TripleThreat said:

https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/1369081659711229967?s=21

Sources: The #Dolphins traded for #Titans 1st round OT Isaiah Wilson, with a swap of picks completing the deal. A fresh start for Wilson.

 

1 hour ago, =Smackdown= said:

Please let it be a late rd pick.

 

1 hour ago, TripleThreat said:

according to Cam Wolfe it’s a late round swap. 
dude needs to get his head on straight. 
 

*Late round pick swap. It’s going to be up to Wilson if he wants to salvage his NFL career but he gets a second change in Miami.

 

1 hour ago, =Smackdown= said:

Swap of 7th rd picks for this reclamation project, He’s one big dude.

Let’s see if Flo can get through to him.

Great job both of you, this actually seems like they are paying nothing for him. Swapping a 7th this year for a 7th next year and taking on Wilson's contract as is, Miami adds cheap beef on a short leash along the OL, they are likely to make a play for a starting Center, they now have 3-4 Tackles, 2-3 Guards, they are going to have guys competing. All i know is Flowers at LG isn't going anywhere, the rest is still a work in progress. What if Wilson(22 yrs old) 29th overall pick last year, just 11 selections after Jackson, what if he helps roll Jackson over to RT which is where Tua's blindside is? 

I'm still going to aim with the Pitts angle for right now, can change my opinion on what they do but I am with Gatorman and many others on this with Miami trading down. Adding OL before the draft will make it easier for them to slide down with so many ways to pick int he 1st. I like TE-Pitts but understand why others lean WR. Even if they slide a couple spots and then take Pitts before Philly has a chance to grab him, pick up a 2nd in the process.  Things looking good so far for Miami. 

Wilson had a DUI, not good and the rookie showed a complete lack of class and focus to want to make it as an NFL player, what is a change of scenery going to do him? SEC-Georgia Bulldog, 6-6/350, yeah let's take a peek and see what Flo and crew can do with him. I bet they liked him in the Draft last year and jumped on the chance to get him for a box of Mike n Ike's. 

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I invite some of you to read further into WIlson's past but he comes from Brooklyn, NY highly recruited 5-Star Tackle and 16th overall in 2017 class, 16th in the country is pretty dang high...and he started 24 of 25 for Georgia in '18 and '19, let his final two seasons of eligibility go to enter the NFL Draft, he could still be in college right now and maybe should have but it doesn't sound like the Titans were really the right team to draft him, he ended up on the Covid list twice I believe and let's not forget the Titans were breaking CV-19 rules and were in hot water early in the 2020 season when this young man had his DUI. 

If this was a domestic violence thing I wouldn't be so eager to give him a clean slate and a 2nd chance but I think we should be sort of excited to get him here, get him in the Miami way of doing things right now going into the off season, I have high hopes he can come in and compete even if he doesn't start at one of the Two Tackle spots right away, it's exciting to get him paired with Jackson and the cost was minimal. Wilson has a lot to prove and major work to do but Flo can coach him up IMHO. 

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5 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Coach Flo actually went to Poly Prep in Brooklyn, same school Wilson attended. It's safe to say this guy was on Miami's radar going back to last year's Draft and well before that.  

He also played with Solomon Kindley at UGA, so maybe putting the two of them back together on the OL, possibly right next to eachother will be good for him.  

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With Van Noy being released is there any thought to the idea that maybe Miami trades back a few spots to the Eagles or Panthers spot if they want a QB or Pitts and Miami takes Micah Parsons to replace Van Noy?

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And if we go after a LB in Free Agency what are your thoughts on Haason Reddick? Not sure why Arizona didn't pick up his 5th year option. Decent numbers and really increased sacks this past year. I liked him coming out of Temple. Seems like a younger version of Van Noy in that I believe you can move him around.

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5 minutes ago, SwampDawg said:

With Van Noy being released is there any thought to the idea that maybe Miami trades back a few spots to the Eagles or Panthers spot if they want a QB or Pitts and Miami takes Micah Parsons to replace Van Noy?

The thing I don't like on the surface is using the top pick to replace what really didn't need to be undone just yet. Van Ginkel is the OLB, Baker is ILB, not a lot of depth, Miami uses Edge players like Shaq Lawson but he isn't really an OLB. 

Using this pick to replace a hole, that's not really taking steps to improve, that's just trying not to take on water. I hope Miami has. plan at LB. 

Draft prospect...there's a bunch after the first 1-2 come off the board that fill up the 2nd Round, I'd prefer they look there. I have a scenario where Miami can likely trade back with Carolina essentially 3 for No 8 plus Carolina's 1st Round in 2022, Miami could potentially pull of another one fo these at the 8 spot or 18 spot again and walk out of there with 3 1st round picks in 2022, backload some of this and check to see Tua's progress in Year 2 before they make final plans. Year 3 of a 5 year deal with Coach Flo, Playoffs are going to be difficult for the Phins this year I think. 

Miami needs some impact players in their Front 7...Wilkins-Davis-Ogbah is your DL in the 3-4 Base set and then you have Van Ginkel, Baker, and Shaq in the next area and really Miami rolls 5-6 DBs a lot. Miami definitely 1-2 guys to shake it up up front but then you realize how often are they lining up with just 4 DBs?

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For those of you who like to play Draft 2021 and get offers and slide back and forth in the Draft, then check this link out

Draft Simulator

I feel guilty not sharing it. I've gotten the Panthers '22 1st, Cinci '22 1st in the same Draft, Miami seems like they could stockpile some picks. Fun to toy with when you need a little break at work. 

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14 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

For those of you who like to play Draft 2021 and get offers and slide back and forth in the Draft, then check this link out

Draft Simulator

I feel guilty not sharing it. I've gotten the Panthers '22 1st, Cinci '22 1st in the same Draft, Miami seems like they could stockpile some picks. Fun to toy with when you need a little break at work. 

Interesting. I traded back with San Fran to the 12 and ended up with Waddle, and the 49ers 1st and 2nd round picks in 2022. Traded from 21 to 27 and got Baltimore's #58 overall pick. Took Barmore DT from Alabama at 27 and Ronnie Perkins EDGE Oklahoma at 58. At 36 I got Humphrey the C from Oklahoma, at 50 Freiermuth TE Penn State, we will play a lot of two TE sets, and at 81 I took Kyle Trask to push Tua or trade.

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Seems apparent after a lot of Draft info from all over the place that Miami has some decisions about who they might want to trade with...the best teams for them to trade with and create a bidding war are going to be the No 6, 7, 8, 9 and 12 pick...those would be Philly, Detroit, Carolina(This is the One you should focus on), Denver and San Fran...any number of them could offer up a 2022 1st Round pick to move up a few precious spots and leapfrog some others for the likes of Wilson, Fields or Lance depending on what the Jets might do at 2. Miami holds a lot of the cards at the top of the Draft right now and I think they should leverage it and slide back a few spots, likely getting at least a 2nd plus more, could squeeze a 1st out of someone like Carolina looking desperately to make the big splash. The owner there doesn't seem to show a lot of patience so far and I think Miami can fleece them for draft picks. 

The Niners would love to jump up to 3 and could Miami slide back for something like a 1st and go back 9 spots? Still likely to find an impact WR or any number of impact players even at positions we seem to be loaded up on like Cornerback...Miami spends a fortune on their 2 outside Corners, not sure that is a long term recipe for success if they want to get to the next level. Look what the Bucs have done on a lot of rookie contracts at DB. I love Howard, wish Jones would disappear, way overpaid him. 

Bottom line is Miami should load up on picks and if they can add for next year's '22 Draft in the process of sliding down then all the better. This team still needs a lot of work. 

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15 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Bottom line is Miami should load up on picks and if they can add for next year's '22 Draft in the process of sliding down then all the better. This team still needs a lot of work. 

I agree with this. The 10-6 record and good defensive stats somewhat cover-up the work remaining. The defense punched above their weight-class last year IMO. They need some players to keep up last year's level of play.

The front 7 just doesn't have many difference makers, which showed up against the Bills. The bucs went the vet route, but to me the MVP of the super bowl was the defensive line. Suh and JPP looked a decade younger, and had pressure on Mahomes every play without hardly any blitzing (I know some of that was the OL injuries, but the Bills didn't get that much pressure). One way or another, Miami needs players that can disrupt the opposing QB like TB did to Mahomes. Ogbah looks like a good 2nd pass-rusher, so if they could somehow get a really good EDGE this year it would help a lot. A difference making LB like Parsons would also really help elevate the defense. 

The OL might have all the pieces right now to be successful, but they looked young and were downright bad for most of last year. It was an improvement over 2019, but it didn't take much to look better than 2019. I saw the run-blocking improve a bit in the 2nd half of the season (also helped by the 2nd half being against worse run defenses), but they still need a big jump to just get to average. Do you wait to see if the 4 higher picks from last year (if you count Wilson) pan out? Or just keep throwing assets at OL until you have a good one? Considering how much we got for the last top OT we traded, I think adding elite OT prospects is usually a good move, but there's opportunity cost there. 

And finally I think Miami has low-key one of the worst pass-catching groups in the entire league, the only clearly worse group I would say is the Lions. That partially stems from my very low opinion of DVP. I think a reliable veteran presence at WR is really helpful for a young QB, and Parker, well I guess he's at least a vet? His rough practice habits and not taking care of his body have been reported a lot, even to the extent that coaches were talking about how he didn't even really know how to hydrate in year 3. I think that's how you get a guy that flashes elite skill every season, but can only put it together for 1 year out of 6. And behind DVP, it's an injured Preston, a rookie "Joker" who has never been a full-time WR, and several guys who should be competing for the last roster spot in a WR group. This group needs an influx of talent. 

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@jtd13 wanted to repost and add to some of your thoughts, excellent post btw. 

"I agree with this. The 10-6 record and good defensive stats somewhat cover-up the work remaining. The defense punched above their weight-class last year IMO. They need some players to keep up last year's level of play."

Wholeheartedly agree that the defense and especially guys like Howard and Ogbah and Van Ginkel made things run smooth for a lot of the season after they started 1-3 IIRC. 

"The front 7 just doesn't have many difference makers, which showed up against the Bills. The bucs went the vet route, but to me the MVP of the super bowl was the defensive line. Suh and JPP looked a decade younger, and had pressure on Mahomes every play without hardly any blitzing (I know some of that was the OL injuries, but the Bills didn't get that much pressure). One way or another, Miami needs players that can disrupt the opposing QB like TB did to Mahomes. Ogbah looks like a good 2nd pass-rusher, so if they could somehow get a really good EDGE this year it would help a lot. A difference making LB like Parsons would also really help elevate the defense."

Another excellent point. I think the front 7 needs work and that is why you see KVN who I liked a lot and will make a huge difference wherever he lands but they need 1-2 ALL Pro types in that front 7. Wilkins has not exactly been on fire since arriving and that was Flo's 1st Draft pick, he got better last year but not enough impact plays, this year is kind of a make or break for him and his long term impact here.  Ogbah feels like a keeper, they likely need to draft another DT to go with Davis who had a solid rookie year I felt, good run stuffer. Again I like guys after the 2 from Univ of Miami are off the board despite being my alma mater, prefer Basham and Weaver as examples from Ga Tech and Pitt. Basham is about 275 and would make a solid DE in the 3-4 with Ogbah, maybe push WIlkins inside more to rotate with Davis depending on run/pass. Oh and Miami needs a solid OLB of some kind. 

"The OL might have all the pieces right now to be successful, but they looked young and were downright bad for most of last year. It was an improvement over 2019, but it didn't take much to look better than 2019. I saw the run-blocking improve a bit in the 2nd half of the season (also helped by the 2nd half being against worse run defenses), but they still need a big jump to just get to average. Do you wait to see if the 4 higher picks from last year (if you count Wilson) pan out? Or just keep throwing assets at OL until you have a good one? Considering how much we got for the last top OT we traded, I think adding elite OT prospects is usually a good move, but there's opportunity cost there." 

This is a dicey situation because I was not impressed with Austin Jackson but there was a lot going on with him last season and he has had some serious personal and family like issues but he isn't a bad dude by any means, like what I saw from both Hunt and Kindley at times, now they have Isaih Wilson, taken 29th overall last season, think Miami will be alright getting him in here to play next to his college buddy, Kindley. They are going to sign an OL, likely the Center from Green Bay plus I expect them to draft 1 Center/OG type to groom behind him for a year or two. I do not see Miami grabbing any of the OL available in the 1st Round, they really cannot go in that direction this year IMHO. That also makes them easier to see coming up and down the draft boards. I don't believe Sewell is the answer for this team. 

"And finally I think Miami has low-key one of the worst pass-catching groups in the entire league, the only clearly worse group I would say is the Lions. That partially stems from my very low opinion of DVP. I think a reliable veteran presence at WR is really helpful for a young QB, and Parker, well I guess he's at least a vet? His rough practice habits and not taking care of his body have been reported a lot, even to the extent that coaches were talking about how he didn't even really know how to hydrate in year 3. I think that's how you get a guy that flashes elite skill every season, but can only put it together for 1 year out of 6. And behind DVP, it's an injured Preston, a rookie "Joker" who has never been a full-time WR, and several guys who should be competing for the last roster spot in a WR group. This group needs an influx of talent."

Agree Agree Agree...Albert Wilson(yes he's still here) and Parker will cost them $17M this season vs saving $12M by releasing both of them, Parker would have to be after June 1st but so be it. That said i would like Miami to wait on WR and let others get Smith/Waddle/Chase and try to maneuver down for say Marshall from LSU, like the Elijah Moore kid from Ole Miss, there's a lot of guys and there will be some value in the 2nd-3rd Round if they wait. 

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Positional spending by the Phins according to Spotrac...

LBs...

Bears $54M, GB $46M, Den $36M, Pitt $26M................Miami spends a whopping $6M at the moment on LBs. 

DBs...

Miami $53.5M....Bucs $12M

I won't be shocked if Miami somehow takes Surtain or Samuel both offspring of really good NFL DBs, both with ties to Miami or Flo. Also love the Safety from UCF, Richie Grant. Miami is spending about $13M right now between the two Safeties and I would like to see a rookie take one of those two starting spots and own it. 

Miami's Cap is pretty flexible right now, Jones and Howard make the most on the team right now, both starting Corners. 

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An updated best guess of what free agency might look like down here...

RB-Aaron Jones...this one is starting to look like a definite. 4/$30-$40M depends on how it is structured. Miami is almost driving the market up single handedly here, if Jones does go elsewhere it will be because someone way overpaid like the Cards giving JJ Watt $16M a year. 

WR-JuJu...just what I'm hearing and reading, news to me as I didn't know Miami needed to spend money when they can get a nuclear level rookie up top in the draft. This would be hard after the last guy we signed from Pittsburgh and the name eludes me but Tannehill tried to connect with him. I'm not that interested in this guy and especially at some of the dollars I have heard tossed around like 5/$75M, yikes. 

Both Godchaux and Elandon Roberts could be back, Godchaux is a rotational guy and won't fetch big bucks so he might re-sign for less than you think, same with Roberts who has ties to Coach Flo and could be brought back. 

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  • SwampDawg changed the title to *** Official 2021 Dolphins Thread - Shaking and baking for draft position!

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