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Government Response To The Coronavirus (7 Viewers)

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The audio tape of Trump talking to governors yesterday pretty much summs up his whole approach to this pandemic.

Wyoming governor articulates exactly why his state can't get tests and PPE, gives specific examples, and Trump just say we have the greatest test, have tested the most in the world, and he hasn't heard about testing for weeks.

This is what we get for electing a reality tv start, "businessman" to lead our country.  If we do it again in November we deserve whatever happens. 

:(

 
timschochet said:
Lancet study: the death rate for this virus is 0.66%

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html

This seems like good news, doesn’t it? Not sure if it should change anything in terms of what our next steps should be but still...it’s good. 
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It has been obvious it has been overstated for a while.  That number will continue to go down as we understand how to treat it better and as we realized it has infected more people than we think.  For instance, the test kits that Italy received from China only identified about 30 percent of the cases.  I suspect a lot more kids than we thought have been exposed to the virus.  

Of course things should change.  I doubt if our privacy concerns would ever allow for what Korea did, but I think Germany perhaps may be the country to most closely model.  They are in lockdown, but they are more concern with protecting the elderly which is by far where most of the deaths occur.  Germany has a lot of cases, but they are concentrated in the younger population as they closely protect older adults.  We need to slowly ease the lockdown and have more testings and to focus on protecting the older population.  

 
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jon_mx said:
It has been obvious it has been overstated for a while.  That number will continue to go down as we understand how to treat it better and as we realized it has infected more people than we think.  For instance, the test kits that Italy received from China only identified about 30 percent of the cases.  I suspect a lot more kids than we thought have been exposed to the virus.  

Of course things should change.  I doubt if our privacy concerns would ever allow for what Korea did, but I think Germany perhaps may be the country to most closely model.  They are in lockdown, but they are more concern with protecting the elderly which is by far where most of the deaths occur.  Germany has a lot of cases, but they are concentrated in the younger population as they closely protect older adults.  We need to slowly ease the lockdown and have more testings and to focus on protecting the older population.  
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How did Germany manage to hold this thing off?

 
James Daulton said:
How did Germany manage to hold this thing off?
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Germany has about a quarter of the population that we do.  They have nearly half the number of cases identified as we do, which at first indicates that a much higher percentage may be infected.  But the reality is they are testing a lot more, so that could be off quite a bit.  Where they are doing better is their number of deaths which is 1/5th of what ours is.  That is largely because their infections seem to be more concentrated on a younger population.  What they are and will be doing different is doing far more testing and more focused isolation on individuals who tested positive and the elderly.  

 
dkp993 said:
I haven’t looked into the specifics of this rollback but I can speak to getting hosed the past 2 years (this year included as I did my taxes in Feb) by the SALT caps and I’m not in either category listed in the post.  The SALT cap was a kick in the balls to home owners in high tax (and often high house pricing) states/communities and this actually raised my taxes.   
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I agree that the SALT cap is brutal for those in high cost of living areas such as NJ, NY, and CT.  A moderate house in my area has property taxes alone above $10K.  That's before property taxes on vehicles, local income taxes (some of the highest in the nation), etc.  You don't need to be making $100K/year for the SALT cap to hit you hard.  Unfortunately, like much of our tax code that is purported to affect "the wealthy", it barely affects the truly wealthy at all, while punishing the middle and upper-middle class.

That said, COVID-19 legislation is not the time to address this.

 
jon_mx said:
Germany has about a quarter of the population that we do.  They have nearly half the number of cases identified as we do, which at first indicates that a much higher percentage may be infected.  But the reality is they are testing a lot more, so that could be off quite a bit.  Where they are doing better is their number of deaths which is 1/5th of what ours is.  That is largely because their infections seem to be more concentrated on a younger population.  What they are and will be doing different is doing far more testing and more focused isolation on individuals who tested positive and the elderly.  
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We hear that all of this testing from other country's have been faulty, yet SK and Germany it seems used their testing to mitigate the spread.

Did they develop their own tests or something?

 
James Daulton said:
We hear that all of this testing from other country's have been faulty, yet SK and Germany it seems used their testing to mitigate the spread.

Did they develop their own tests or something?
Click to expand...


Spain, Europe's worst-hit country after Italy, says coronavirus tests it bought from China are failing to detect positive cases

Microbiology experts in Spain have said that rapid coronavirus tests that the country bought from China are not consistently detecting positive cases.

The error was discovered as Spain is in the grip of one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the world, second only to Italy in the number of reported deaths.

Studies on the tests done in Spain found that they had only 30% sensitivity, meaning they correctly identify people with the virus only 30% of the time, sources told the Spanish newspaper El País.

 
It's absolutely puzzling to try and figure out why people are focused on death rate.  In the end, it will be what it will be.  The energy spent bickering over the number as it changes is some of the most bizarre shtick I've ever seen on this board and that's saying something.

 
timschochet said:
Lancet study: the death rate for this virus is 0.66%

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html

This seems like good news, doesn’t it? Not sure if it should change anything in terms of what our next steps should be but still...it’s good. 
Click to expand...
Take that study with a huge grain of salt.  There is no set death rate.  Anyone that tries to tell you they know what it is or tries to give an exact number is selling total bs.

We know, without a doubt, that a taxed healthcare system will cause the death rate to skyrocket.  

We know that in countries where they perform comprehensive testing that the death rate hovers around 1-1.4%. 

We have zero real world data that suggests that the death rate will ever end up at .66%.

In the end, it doesn't matter all that much.  When this is all over if they give everybody an antibody test and determine that "oh crap there were twice the number of cases than we thought", it won't change who died. 

As an aside, it makes me quite angry to see CNN run this article.  So many people are just headline readers.  When they see on CNN a .66% death rate, is that going to keep them indoors and quarantining?  Are we really going through all this trouble for a disease that is just a couple times more deadly than the flu?  I don't think so.  Governments are reacting as they are because if this takes over in one area it's a crippling virus that kills 3-5% and overwhelms healthcare facilities.  We need to treat it with respect and not run unproven studies that could cause people to not take this as seriously as they should.

 
The Commish said:
It's absolutely puzzling to try and figure out why people are focused on death rate.  In the end, it will be what it will be.  The energy spent bickering over the number as it changes is some of the most bizarre shtick I've ever seen on this board and that's saying something.
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First of all, Trump said it was sub 1% and that's had a terrible impact on how seriously some people take this thing.

Second, ultimately a death rate is important.  It's important for any infectious disease that's out there.  I don't know why people wouldn't be focused on that?  The risk that you have of dying if you catch the corona-virus seems like an important thing for anyone to know.

The better question might be why some people argue that the death rate is really low when there's no data that proves that?  Seriously, why would anyone make that argument? Let's assume the worst and in the end if it turns out there were a ton of asymptomatic cases and the actual rate is lower, ok.

 
The Commish said:
James Daulton said:
How did Germany manage to hold this thing off?
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Testing and making people stay in place.  It's my belief that, in the end, these will be the two key indicators that are most effective and also the two places we lagged behind significantly.
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I would like to remind people (not only you two) that current numbers in Germany for closed cases indicate 4% dead

 
Doug B said:
“Death rate” is not an actual aspect of a virus. It’s almost wholly dependent on external factors (e.g. access to a certain level of healthcare).
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This is true, and why Italy had such devastation from the virus and we are trying to avoid the same thing happening here. It's important to understand the differences and similarities between their healthcare and ours and also the nature of the virus, which all signs point to it having been overestimated. If we determined the death rate too high, we determined the hospitalization and icu rate too high also, which would mean the extreme influx in hospitals won't be as much as anticipated.

 
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An aspect of covid19 that is worth exploring, how it seems to me to have much more prevalence, and threatens the healthcare in densely populated cities so much more than rural areas. The pancea lock down approach may be the wrong way to go. Maybe not necessary so much in small towns. There's only like 7 cases in my entire county yet buttloads of small businesses could go under. 

Meanwhile, in the prison where I work, inmates are still walking up to chow (instead getting trays delivered in their cells), they are still getting rec hall and yard. Let one person in this prison get and every body has it. Yet, I can't go trout fishing by myself. 

 
Sammy3469 said:
“I haven’t heard about a testing being a problem” to the governors yesterday when they bring up testing problems about sums up the quality of the federal government response.
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It's unbelievable.  Of course he has to say "we have the greatest test" first.

This does all feel like some kind of crazy simulation. 

 
cloppbeast said:
An aspect of covid19 that is worth exploring, how it seems to me to have much more prevalence, and threatens the healthcare in densely populated cities so much more than rural areas. The pancea lock down approach may be the wrong way to go. Maybe not necessary so much in small towns. There's only like 7 cases in my entire county yet buttloads of small businesses could go under. 

Meanwhile, in the prison where I work, inmates are still walking up to chow (instead getting trays delivered in their cells), they are still getting rec hall and yard. Let one person in this prison get and every body has it. Yet, I can't go trout fishing by myself. 
Click to expand...
Fishing is OK in Indiana.  They even extended permits if they recently expirted.

 
cloppbeast said:
An aspect of covid19 that is worth exploring, how it seems to me to have much more prevalence, and threatens the healthcare in densely populated cities so much more than rural areas. The pancea lock down approach may be the wrong way to go. Maybe not necessary so much in small towns. There's only like 7 cases in my entire county yet buttloads of small businesses could go under. 

Meanwhile, in the prison where I work, inmates are still walking up to chow (instead getting trays delivered in their cells), they are still getting rec hall and yard. Let one person in this prison get and every body has it. Yet, I can't go trout fishing by myself. 
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Now - compare the healthcare resources of a high-density city, and a rural town.

 
James Daulton said:
It's unbelievable.  Of course he has to say "we have the greatest test" first.

This does all feel like some kind of crazy simulation. 
Click to expand...
The test that Abbott developed is the greatest test.  Is there any doubt about that?  Current testing takes days to get results.  This test will take an hour, maybe less.  That is impactful for the front line healthcare workers to be able to isolate positive cases and will also allow them to use less PPE equipment.  

 
Snotbubbles said:
The test that Abbott developed is the greatest test.  Is there any doubt about that?  Current testing takes days to get results.  This test will take an hour, maybe less.  That is impactful for the front line healthcare workers to be able to isolate positive cases and will also allow them to use less PPE equipment.  
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What did it have to do with the discussion that was taking place?

 
jon_mx said:
Fishing is OK in Indiana.  They even extended permits if they recently expirted.
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I'm allowed to go fishing, but you're not allowed to fish for trout in Maryland they pushed back the date. I can drive to a year round trout stream in PA but you have to throw them back. I know the state if Washington did ban fishing completely though. 

 
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shader said:
Take that study with a huge grain of salt.  There is no set death rate.  Anyone that tries to tell you they know what it is or tries to give an exact number is selling total bs.

We know, without a doubt, that a taxed healthcare system will cause the death rate to skyrocket.  

We know that in countries where they perform comprehensive testing that the death rate hovers around 1-1.4%. 

We have zero real world data that suggests that the death rate will ever end up at .66%.

In the end, it doesn't matter all that much.  When this is all over if they give everybody an antibody test and determine that "oh crap there were twice the number of cases than we thought", it won't change who died. 

As an aside, it makes me quite angry to see CNN run this article.  So many people are just headline readers.  When they see on CNN a .66% death rate, is that going to keep them indoors and quarantining?  Are we really going through all this trouble for a disease that is just a couple times more deadly than the flu?  I don't think so.  Governments are reacting as they are because if this takes over in one area it's a crippling virus that kills 3-5% and overwhelms healthcare facilities.  We need to treat it with respect and not run unproven studies that could cause people to not take this as seriously as they should.
Click to expand...


They are not trying to sell a set death rate.  They are trying to provide the best information possible on based on what information is available and correct for factors such as the number of undetected infections.  The mortality rate is not anywhere close to 1.4% when analyzed and corrected for the age of known infected vs. general population and that is absolutely based on real world data.  Many people are going to die, but correct information does matter.  It matters to have an idea of how many people might have built up antibodies and if the virus has run its course.  It matters for planning and when and how we can get back to work and how we can do better in the future.  As the article states, they expect the mortality rate number to go down, not up.  

 
cloppbeast said:
If you look at the evidence, most of the hospitals having issues are in the cities despite them have many more resources than small towns. 
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Yes - but now imagine you did not practice social distancing and other preventative measures in small towns.

It would take far less of an outbreak in a local community to overrun the healthcare system than in New York City - or other metro area.

 
Days After a Funeral in a Georgia Town, Coronavirus ‘Hit Like a Bomb’

A mourner came to Albany, Ga., to attend the funeral of a retired janitor. After a pause while the infections incubated, the virus swept through the community.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-funeral-albany-georgia.html

This rural county in southwest Georgia, 40 miles from the nearest interstate, now has one of the most intense clusters of the coronavirus in the country.

With a population of only 90,000, Dougherty County has registered 24 deaths, far more than any other county in the state, with six more possible coronavirus deaths under investigation, according to Michael L. Fowler, the local coroner. Ninety percent of the people who died were African-American, he said.

The region’s hospitals are overloaded with sick and dying patients, having registered nearly 600 positive cases. Last week, Gov. Brian Kemp dispatched the National Guard to help stage additional intensive care beds and relieve exhausted doctors and nurses.

 
Snotbubbles said:
The test that Abbott developed is the greatest test.  Is there any doubt about that?  Current testing takes days to get results.  This test will take an hour, maybe less.  That is impactful for the front line healthcare workers to be able to isolate positive cases and will also allow them to use less PPE equipment.  
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He literally says he/we have the greatest everything.  The biggest everything.  No one could have foreseen this.  Greatest economy ever.

It's cartoonish at best.

 
Sinn Fein said:
Days After a Funeral in a Georgia Town, Coronavirus ‘Hit Like a Bomb’

A mourner came to Albany, Ga., to attend the funeral of a retired janitor. After a pause while the infections incubated, the virus swept through the community.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-funeral-albany-georgia.html

This rural county in southwest Georgia, 40 miles from the nearest interstate, now has one of the most intense clusters of the coronavirus in the country.

With a population of only 90,000, Dougherty County has registered 24 deaths, far more than any other county in the state, with six more possible coronavirus deaths under investigation, according to Michael L. Fowler, the local coroner. Ninety percent of the people who died were African-American, he said.

The region’s hospitals are overloaded with sick and dying patients, having registered nearly 600 positive cases. Last week, Gov. Brian Kemp dispatched the National Guard to help stage additional intensive care beds and relieve exhausted doctors and nurses.
Click to expand...
So you can Google "small town coronavirus".

 
Outcomes: per 3/31 worldo'meters

Italy: 44% death

Spain: 30% death

Germany: 4% death

France: 28% death

South Korea:  3% death

USA: 36% death

 
cloppbeast said:
Except for the pigs. Or am I thinking of somewhere else?
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You might be thinking of West Texas and the javelinas.  We do have wild boar / feral hogs here. I'm not a hunter though. We have pretty much everything. My wife's uncle and cousins do gator hunting. We have everything from heron to nutria, and it's beautiful. Being stuck indoors makes you think about all that great stuff, how much you appreciate it and how great it will be to get back to it. My friend offered me a swamp canoe ride when this is all over with and it's been bumming me I haven't taken him up on it before. 

 
cloppbeast said:
I'm allowed to go fishing, but you're not allowed to fish for trout in Maryland they pushed back the date. I can drive to a year round trout stream in PA but you have to throw them back. I know the state if Washington did ban fishing completely though. 
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Shutting down fishing and public lakes doesn't make much sense to me.  Fishing is one activity that should keep you from being exposed to the virus.

 
msommer said:
Except hanging around bait shops, lunch places etc
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I would hope that would be common sense for people but I know it's not.  I've still been going fishing on my kayak but they have canceled all fishing tournaments in Iowa till the end of April now.  I'm afraid that will be extended through May as well.  I had a full schedule of kayak bass tourneys for this summer and it's not looking good now.  It's very frustrating.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
Shutting down fishing and public lakes doesn't make much sense to me.  Fishing is one activity that should keep you from being exposed to the virus.
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The only reason I could think, the first day of trout season people are actually crammed elbow to elbow. I hate it myself and wait for the next stocking so I can breathe. 

 
Snotbubbles said:
When it comes to the testing, he's right.  When it comes to the economy, if it wasn't the greatest it was damn close.  
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Except...the conversation wasn't about how great the test may be...it was about people not getting PPE and tests in place to actually do the work they need to do.

 
Snotbubbles said:
I was responding to a different post.  Keep up.
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It was all within the context of the same conversation...Im all caught up and followed along just fine.  His answer was a microcosm of how the administration had handled things...the doctors should be the ones speaking and not him.

 
msommer said:
Outcomes: per 3/31 worldo'meters

Italy: 44% death

Spain: 30% death

Germany: 4% death

France: 28% death

South Korea:  3% death

USA: 36% death
Click to expand...
Of the 164K+ cases, 156K+ are still active.  Of those actives 3,512 are serious.  So if 100% of those serious cases die and 100% of the non-serious cases recover, we'd be a 4%.  For the US, these numbers are too early to tell.

 
Snotbubbles said:
I'm trying to, but he's not really adding anything to the discussion.  He's like a post police.  Either add something or move on.
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And what were your posts adding...Im discussing the government response to the corona virus and how POTUS making comments about how great the tests are in response to a Governor pleading for more PPE and tests is not a great thing.  Seems my post added to the actual topic and wasn't just some defense of Trump chiming in with a pointless brag about how great the tests are.

 
The Commish said:
It's absolutely puzzling to try and figure out why people are focused on death rate. 
Click to expand...
Because if you can convince enough people that "death rate" is "low enough" ... you can start playing the "just a flu, we got chloroquine, open it all back up pronto!" card.

 
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