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1 minute ago, sho nuff said:

And what were your posts adding...Im discussing the government response to the corona virus and how POTUS making comments about how great the tests are in response to a Governor pleading for more PPE and tests is not a great thing.  Seems my post added to the actual topic and wasn't just some defense of Trump chiming in with a pointless brag about how great the tests are.

 

The tests are great.  They are going to be the reason that many, many lives are saved.  Having real time results is going to be the difference.  Have a nice day.  [James Daulton, is that better?]

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This is going to be a one off post because I don't want to get trolled or banned but if I were American, the context of Canada would be the biggest damning fact of how things have been handled in the

Australia has had months of little to no community spread and even then it was confined to one state. By and large Australians are running around doing the right thing, sport was and is still hap

I am confident we are going to hit >750K deaths.  I think it might be a million.  I don't post a ton but I'm an ER doc in a big city. This is by far the worse I've seen since the pandemic star

20 minutes ago, Snotbubbles said:

Of the 164K+ cases, 156K+ are still active.  Of those actives 3,512 are serious.  So if 100% of those serious cases die and 100% of the non-serious cases recover, we'd be a 4%.  For the US, these numbers are too early to tell.

Non sequitor

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4 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Because if you can convince enough people that "death rate" is "low enough" ... you can start playing the "just a flu, we got chloroquine, open it all back up pronto!" card.

I thought the people here hated misinformation and loved science.  Or do we pick and choose when we believe the science and provide accurate information only when it supports our position.

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1 minute ago, msommer said:

Non sequitor

<shrug> 

Everybody is at different parts of their curve, are doing different test levels, have different treatment protocols, etc.  Death rate % without adding in other contextual data is not useful.  

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15 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Because if you can convince enough people that "death rate" is "low enough" ... you can start playing the "just a flu, we got chloroquine, open it all back up pronto!" card.

It doesn't have to be "just the flu" for the virus to not be as deadly as people first thought. Knowing the it's actual devastation is important so we don't cause more harm than good. While most people would want to shut down the country to save 2 million lives, maybe not 200,000 or 100,000 or 40,000.

Edited by cloppbeast
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1 minute ago, Snotbubbles said:

<shrug> 

Everybody is at different parts of their curve, are doing different test levels, have different treatment protocols, etc.  Death rate % without adding in other contextual data is not useful.  

Perhaps there is use in knowing that currently outcomes in the the US are more akin to places where hospital were overtaxed than those that were not

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2 hours ago, The Commish said:

It's absolutely puzzling to try and figure out why people are focused on death rate.  In the end, it will be what it will be.  The energy spent bickering over the number as it changes is some of the most bizarre shtick I've ever seen on this board and that's saying something.

I don't know if you could write a statement that I disagree with more than the bolded above.  Perhaps I'm misunderstanding your above, so I'll pause and ask you to expand on why you think that: 1. The death rate won't differ by country & region within country and 2. The difference in death rate will (at least partly, but undoubtedly significantly) be due to actions taken and not taken by individual countries/regions.

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3 hours ago, jon_mx said:

Germany has about a quarter of the population that we do.  They have nearly half the number of cases identified as we do, which at first indicates that a much higher percentage may be infected.  But the reality is they are testing a lot more, so that could be off quite a bit.  Where they are doing better is their number of deaths which is 1/5th of what ours is.  That is largely because their infections seem to be more concentrated on a younger population.  What they are and will be doing different is doing far more testing and more focused isolation on individuals who tested positive and the elderly.  

Germany has allowed businesses to cut employee wages by 50%, and then the gov't is giving them 50%.  Hell of a benefit to companies, allowing them to absorb the hit.  Further, medical care isn't tied to employment so there really isn't incentive for workers to break quarantine.

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1 minute ago, moleculo said:

Germany has allowed businesses to cut employee wages by 50%, and then the gov't is giving them 50%.  Hell of a benefit to companies, allowing them to absorb the hit.  Further, medical care isn't tied to employment so there really isn't incentive for workers to break quarantine.

Weird. It seems so simple and sensible, yet here in the US, we make it seem so complicated.

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5 minutes ago, msommer said:

Perhaps there is use in knowing that currently outcomes in the the US are more akin to places where hospital were overtaxed than those that were not

But the data you provided doesn't show that.  If you wanted to show overtaxed hospitals, then hospitalization rate would be a more effective figure since those are the people actually in the hospital (I don't know what the rate is in other countries, NY is at 20.5%).

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4 minutes ago, Bottomfeeder Sports said:

What is this a percentage of?  Death happens in Italy for  44% of ????? ?

Outcomes

death/death+recovery

ETA: It's a snapshot

Edited by msommer
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There are two major disconnects here. Per reporting, several governors are complaining that there is still not enough tests out there, that they can’t get their hands on them. The White House is claiming that that testing is no problem, that the new 5 minute Abbott test is easily available to everyone, and that almost all governors are grateful to Trump’s efforts. 

The second disconnect is that many states continue to complain about lack of PPE and ventilators and continue to urge enforcing the DPA. President Trump continues to argue that the DPA isn’t necessary and that it’s more efficient for the states to take the lead and compete with each other while he takes a backup role. Trump has also suggested that perhaps the governors are exaggerating their need, and he’s heavily implied that some hospital workers are ripping off supplies, causing the shortage. 

And there’s a third problem. President Trump’s refusal to declare a national shelter in place has resulted in some Republican governors refusing to order statewide restrictions, notably in the states of Mississippi, Texas, and Florida. In Florida the virus numbers are exploding. 

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1 minute ago, timschochet said:

There are two major disconnects here. Per reporting, several governors are complaining that there is still not enough tests out there, that they can’t get their hands on them. The White House is claiming that that testing is no problem, that the new 5 minute Abbott test is easily available to everyone, and that almost all governors are grateful to Trump’s efforts. 

The second disconnect is that many states continue to complain about lack of PPE and ventilators and continue to urge enforcing the DPA. President Trump continues to argue that the DPA isn’t necessary and that it’s more efficient for the states to take the lead and compete with each other while he takes a backup role. Trump has also suggested that perhaps the governors are exaggerating their need, and he’s heavily implied that some hospital workers are ripping off supplies, causing the shortage. 

And there’s a third problem. President Trump’s refusal to declare a national shelter in place has resulted in some Republican governors refusing to order statewide restrictions, notably in the states of Mississippi, Texas, and Florida. In Florida the virus numbers are exploding. 

I don't believe he has the constitutional authority to declare a shelter in place.  However, he absolutely has a bully pulpit and could encourage it.  Republican governors would have no choice but to follow suit.

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37 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

I thought the people here hated misinformation and loved science.  Or do we pick and choose when we believe the science and provide accurate information only when it supports our position.

The latter.

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9 minutes ago, Tom Skerritt said:

Weird. It seems so simple and sensible, yet here in the US, we make it seem so complicated.

I do like the German system since that covers all employees.  The system we have helps small business employees and leaves large business employees to fend for themselves.    

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10 minutes ago, Bottomfeeder Sports said:

What is this a percentage of?  Death happens in Italy for  44% of ????? ?

It doesn’t really matter.  It’s all a function of testing. South Korea and Germany have by far the most testing, but even then, it’s still sub 1% of their population.

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49 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Because if you can convince enough people that "death rate" is "low enough" ... you can start playing the "just a flu, we got chloroquine, open it all back up pronto!" card.

This.

To understand the lethality, I simply divide deaths by double the number of confirmed cases... Think that's generous with leeway, currently has us just under 25x the flu and quite deadly.

I'm in Florida and it has been like 90+ for over a week until today. South Florida is having a large outbreak, let's stop playing blind and pretending that warm weather is the end of this either.  

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39 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

I thought the people here hated misinformation and loved science.  Or do we pick and choose when we believe the science and provide accurate information only when it supports our position.

The CFR is just one parameter.  For one to assume the CFR is significantly lower than current data shows, you are assuming that there are a whole lot of undiagnosed people out there.  If that's the case, we have to aslo state that this thing is far more contageous than previously understood - not 2x as contageous as the flu, but maybe 4 or 5x.  It's also important to provide context: a  CFR of 0.7% is still 7x more deadly than the flu.  

At the end of the day, these parameters are important for epidemiologists and data modelers.  For regular folks posting on fantasy football messageboards, I don't think the CFR is all that menaingful.  What's more important is the raw number of hospitalized and number of fatalities.  We don't need to make assumptions on these numbers - they are right there in front of you, readily available.  

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6 minutes ago, Snotbubbles said:

I do like the German system since that covers all employees.  The system we have helps small business employees and leaves large business employees to fend for themselves.    

The FFCRA exempts companies over 500 employees.

 

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10 minutes ago, msommer said:
13 minutes ago, Bottomfeeder Sports said:

What is this a percentage of?  Death happens in Italy for  44% of ????? ?

Outcomes

death/death+recovery

ETA: It's a snapshot

Edited 7 minutes ago by msommer

Thanks.  I eventually found it via Google.   So for the US

3186 Deaths

5544 Recover

3186/(3186 + 5544)

or 3186/8730

= .3649.......

4 minutes ago, jonessed said:

It doesn’t really matter.  It’s all a function of testing. South Korea and Germany have by far the most testing, but even then, it’s still sub 1% of their population.

I think it matters to know what the percentage means otherwise it might as well have been just random numbers.  It probably will not be very helpful in extrapolating what happens with the 156,850 active cases (or 3535 serious cases) or what will happen with new cases going forward for a variety of reasons I can think of and I'm sure many more I can't, but now at least I know what 44% and 36% represented.

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19 minutes ago, timschochet said:

There are two major disconnects here. Per reporting, several governors are complaining that there is still not enough tests out there, that they can’t get their hands on them. The White House is claiming that that testing is no problem, that the new 5 minute Abbott test is easily available to everyone, and that almost all governors are grateful to Trump’s efforts. 

The second disconnect is that many states continue to complain about lack of PPE and ventilators and continue to urge enforcing the DPA. President Trump continues to argue that the DPA isn’t necessary and that it’s more efficient for the states to take the lead and compete with each other while he takes a backup role. Trump has also suggested that perhaps the governors are exaggerating their need, and he’s heavily implied that some hospital workers are ripping off supplies, causing the shortage. 

And there’s a third problem. President Trump’s refusal to declare a national shelter in place has resulted in some Republican governors refusing to order statewide restrictions, notably in the states of Mississippi, Texas, and Florida. In Florida the virus numbers are exploding. 

Florida is going to get hammered with their older population.  

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25 minutes ago, timschochet said:

There are two major disconnects here. Per reporting, several governors are complaining that there is still not enough tests out there, that they can’t get their hands on them. The White House is claiming that that testing is no problem, that the new 5 minute Abbott test is easily available to everyone, and that almost all governors are grateful to Trump’s efforts. 

The second disconnect is that many states continue to complain about lack of PPE and ventilators and continue to urge enforcing the DPA. President Trump continues to argue that the DPA isn’t necessary and that it’s more efficient for the states to take the lead and compete with each other while he takes a backup role. Trump has also suggested that perhaps the governors are exaggerating their need, and he’s heavily implied that some hospital workers are ripping off supplies, causing the shortage. 

And there’s a third problem. President Trump’s refusal to declare a national shelter in place has resulted in some Republican governors refusing to order statewide restrictions, notably in the states of Mississippi, Texas, and Florida. In Florida the virus numbers are exploding. 

Disconnects?  No, there's the truth and then there's off the cuff, made up nonsense by the world renown expert on all things.  Most latest South Korea.

We are indeed lucky.

Edited by James Daulton
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1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

So you can Google "small town coronavirus".

 

I did not google anything - it came across as a NYT story on my app at the same time you were complaining this has no impact on rural America.

 

Sorry to ruin your narrative.  :shrug:

 

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We won't know a lot of these answers until the pandemic is over and we can look at everything with hindsight.

But right now I think there's a lot of evidence for a fatality rate of ~.7% and that we're dramatically under diagnosing this disease.

Also think it's possible that the flattening in the number of US cases right now has more to do with either availability of tests or that processing companies are maxed out.

But honestly?  We're all guessing right now.

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New York State stockpile (per Cuomo):

20-40K projected ventilator need

6,500 existing ventilators downstate, 4,400 Federal, 800 State stockpile, 1,000 State stockpile already shipped, 17,000 State ordered, 2,750 BiPAP (ordered)

1.5M N-95 masks

3.6M surgical masks

1.68M exam gloves

240,000 gowns

188,000 faceshields

 

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15 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Because if you can convince enough people that "death rate" is "low enough" ... you can start playing the "just a flu, we got chloroquine, open it all back up pronto!" card.

And then we just watch it spread again like wildfire?  It's my understanding that chloroquine would be a potential remedy and help people mend, but that it doesn't prevent one from catching the virus.  It would be madness to even think about this talking point given how we've seen the public react to the "restrictions" upon them now.

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2 minutes ago, The Commish said:

And then we just watch it spread again like wildfire?  It's my understanding that chloroquine would be a potential remedy and help people mend, but that it doesn't prevent one from catching the virus.  It would be madness to even think about this talking point given how we've seen the public react to the "restrictions" upon them now.

As long as the second wave happens substantially after the election the play is solid (to those it benefits)

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3 hours ago, shader said:

First of all, Trump said it was sub 1% and that's had a terrible impact on how seriously some people take this thing.

Second, ultimately a death rate is important.  It's important for any infectious disease that's out there.  I don't know why people wouldn't be focused on that?  The risk that you have of dying if you catch the corona-virus seems like an important thing for anyone to know.

The better question might be why some people argue that the death rate is really low when there's no data that proves that?  Seriously, why would anyone make that argument? Let's assume the worst and in the end if it turns out there were a ton of asymptomatic cases and the actual rate is lower, ok.

I can list a rather large list of why we wouldn't be focused on it right now.  My top 3 would be:

1.  Because it's a new (novel) virus we have little information on.
2.  The information continues to change daily so what was maybe true yesterday is probably less true today (or more true, who knows)?
3.  False talking points (as you allude to in the post I am quoting) can be used in political :hophead: that in turn masks/exaggerates the reality leaving everyone confused.  When people are confused and don't know what to do, they usually do what they think is right, which is ultimately wrong.  

As it pertains to "guessing", I am fully on board with "prepare for the worst, hope for the best".  It's how I design any system I am creating from scratch and I don't see a problem with that approach here.  If we never have to deal with the worst, that's great.  If we do, we're prepared to do so.

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1 hour ago, Morton Muffley said:

I don't know if you could write a statement that I disagree with more than the bolded above.  Perhaps I'm misunderstanding your above, so I'll pause and ask you to expand on why you think that: 1. The death rate won't differ by country & region within country and 2. The difference in death rate will (at least partly, but undoubtedly significantly) be due to actions taken and not taken by individual countries/regions.

More of my thoughts later in this thread

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50 minutes ago, timschochet said:

There are two major disconnects here. Per reporting, several governors are complaining that there is still not enough tests out there, that they can’t get their hands on them. The White House is claiming that that testing is no problem, that the new 5 minute Abbott test is easily available to everyone, and that almost all governors are grateful to Trump’s efforts. 

The second disconnect is that many states continue to complain about lack of PPE and ventilators and continue to urge enforcing the DPA. President Trump continues to argue that the DPA isn’t necessary and that it’s more efficient for the states to take the lead and compete with each other while he takes a backup role. Trump has also suggested that perhaps the governors are exaggerating their need, and he’s heavily implied that some hospital workers are ripping off supplies, causing the shortage. 

And there’s a third problem. President Trump’s refusal to declare a national shelter in place has resulted in some Republican governors refusing to order statewide restrictions, notably in the states of Mississippi, Texas, and Florida. In Florida the virus numbers are exploding. 

Its not a disconnect...its a dishonest White House and POTUS.

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1 hour ago, jonessed said:

It doesn’t really matter.  It’s all a function of testing. South Korea and Germany have by far the most testing, but even then, it’s still sub 1% of their population.

South Korea and Germany have both done the best job of testing.  South Korea's "death rate" is not sub 1%.  It's inching closer and closer to 2% as they shed the virus in their population.

Germany reported a TON of cases without deaths because they caught so many early.  Despite that, this virus did what it does, and it has inched up to a 1% death rate. (and will continue to rise)

So neither have "sub 1% death rates", despite their comprehensive testing.

Also, neither of these two countries have been faced with hospital disasters that cause deaths to soar.

Your statement that "it's all a function of testing" is 100% inaccurate.  That's certainly a part of it, but so is proper care.  Without question, if hospitals get overrun, the death rate rises.  

Edited by shader
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1 minute ago, shader said:

South Korea and Germany have both done the best job of testing.  South Korea's "death rate" is not sub 1%.  It's inching closer and closer to 2% as they shed the virus in their population.

Germany reported a TON of cases without deaths because they caught so many early.  Despite that, this virus did what it does, and it has inched up to a 1% death rate. (and will continue to rise)

So neither have "sub 1% death rates", despite their comprehensive testing.

Also, neither of these two countries have been faced with hospital disasters that cause deaths to soar.

Your statement that "it's all a function of testing" is 100% inaccurate.  That's certainly a part of it, but so is proper care.  Without question, if hospitals get overrun, the death rate rises.  

It’s all a function of testing. South Korea and Germany have by far the most testing, but even then, it’s still sub 1% of their population.
 

You’re so eager to jump on people you aren’t even reading anymore.

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Just now, jonessed said:

It’s all a function of testing. South Korea and Germany have by far the most testing, but even then, it’s still sub 1% of their population.
 

You’re so eager to jump on people you aren’t even reading anymore.

Assuming that's what you meant, you don't have to test the entire population.  You only have to test those that have been in contact with those with the virus.  South Korea did a THOROUGH job of testing.  We know it worked because they reversed the trend.  There was no need to test the whole country, because they know who was at risk and who was not.  This isn't even worth debating anymore.  You guys don't have the facts or science on your side, you're spitting out falsehoods to make sure your dear leader's predictions come true.

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5 minutes ago, killface said:

Personally I'm furious with Trump and his response to this.  It's going to be a absolute disaster because of him

I understand the sentiment but I’m not quite there myself. Here are the choices: 

1. It’s better because of Trump. I don’t think anyone outside of his most devout fans truly believe this. 

2. Trump hasn’t made a difference one way or another as to how bad it’s going to be. I think a lot of people believe this. I’ve thought so from time to time but given some of his errors I no longer believe it. 

3. Trump has made things somewhat worse. I suppose this is where I am most of the time. I think it was going to be terrible no matter what Trump did, but he could have done some things to make it better and he hasn’t. 

4. It’s going to be an absolute disaster because of Trump. In order to believe this you have to also believe that the President has far greater powers to affect change in times of emergency than I do. We may learn some things that will convince me that this is the correct choice, but right now I’m much closer to #3. 

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

I understand the sentiment but I’m not quite there myself. Here are the choices: 

1. It’s better because of Trump. I don’t think anyone outside of his most devout fans truly believe this. 

2. Trump hasn’t made a difference one way or another as to how bad it’s going to be. I think a lot of people believe this. I’ve thought so from time to time but given some of his errors I no longer believe it. 

3. Trump has made things somewhat worse. I suppose this is where I am most of the time. I think it was going to be terrible no matter what Trump did, but he could have done some things to make it better and he hasn’t. 

4. It’s going to be an absolute disaster because of Trump. In order to believe this you have to also believe that the President has far greater powers to affect change in times of emergency than I do. We may learn some things that will convince me that this is the correct choice, but right now I’m much closer to #3. 

I'm a 4 - he could have done so much more.  Even if he didn't spend so much time calling it a hoax and getting half the country thinking it's a joke. That idea is still out there and fairly strong in some minds.  

Italy was surprised when it happened.  We had so much more time to prepare.  This could have been handled so much better...as it stands it will be a disaster

 

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50 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I understand the sentiment but I’m not quite there myself. Here are the choices: 

1. It’s better because of Trump. I don’t think anyone outside of his most devout fans truly believe this. 

2. Trump hasn’t made a difference one way or another as to how bad it’s going to be. I think a lot of people believe this. I’ve thought so from time to time but given some of his errors I no longer believe it. 

3. Trump has made things somewhat worse. I suppose this is where I am most of the time. I think it was going to be terrible no matter what Trump did, but he could have done some things to make it better and he hasn’t. 

4. It’s going to be an absolute disaster because of Trump. In order to believe this you have to also believe that the President has far greater powers to affect change in times of emergency than I do. We may learn some things that will convince me that this is the correct choice, but right now I’m much closer to #3. 

It is choice 4.   Anything else is rationalization.

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

3. Trump has made things somewhat worse. I suppose this is where I am most of the time. I think it was going to be terrible no matter what Trump did, but he could have done some things to make it better and he hasn’t. 

4. It’s going to be an absolute disaster because of Trump. In order to believe this you have to also believe that the President has far greater powers to affect change in times of emergency than I do. We may learn some things that will convince me that this is the correct choice, but right now I’m much closer to #3. 

We will not know what Trump has been told or what he has done or not done until at a minimum he is out of the White House. The analysis likely won't begin until January 2021 at a minimum. I'm guessing what we find out will be shocking.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006
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33 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I understand the sentiment but I’m not quite there myself. Here are the choices: 

1. It’s better because of Trump. I don’t think anyone outside of his most devout fans truly believe this. 

2. Trump hasn’t made a difference one way or another as to how bad it’s going to be. I think a lot of people believe this. I’ve thought so from time to time but given some of his errors I no longer believe it. 

3. Trump has made things somewhat worse. I suppose this is where I am most of the time. I think it was going to be terrible no matter what Trump did, but he could have done some things to make it better and he hasn’t. 

4. It’s going to be an absolute disaster because of Trump. In order to believe this you have to also believe that the President has far greater powers to affect change in times of emergency than I do. We may learn some things that will convince me that this is the correct choice, but right now I’m much closer to #3. 

It is 4. Any other response and you are just deluding yourself. Trump has direct control over military response, manufacturing, coordination/competition between states, and can issue nationwide lockdowns. He can also not lie to a nationwide audience every day about this disease - but we all know how that is going.

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