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Government Response To The Coronavirus (2 Viewers)
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The General
Footballguy
It's the HIGH end if we did zero social distancing or any other measures.
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Think of the outcome for every person that came in and needed a ventilator to live - and did not get one, because there were not enough.
Are you saying that they would all live - because they don't actually need the ventilator?
We are fighting a two-pronged war here, where we are desperately trying to get more ventilators, and fewer patients - so that those who need one will get one. The original model showed the outcome if we did not take both measures.
We can't now fault the country for taking these measures, and thereby reducing the impact of the virus.
shader
Footballguy
Half of the US population is 163 million. With a CFR of 1% (very, very low if half the country had it), that's 1.6 million dead. Even in South Korea their CFR is almost 2%.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
This model/study questioned the assumptions made from the original Imperial model which predicted 2m dead. At the time the Oxford study was a hypethetical because we really didn't have too much accurate information. Since then though, it turns out the death rate and hospitalization rate is a lot lower than we thought, confirming what the Oxford Model had questioned. A person can use his reason to make deduction that the 2m was too high. Or you can just wait for the epidemiologists to say it shortly.
Also, blood antibody tests have not been done to say how many people have already had it, another thing questioned by the Oxford researcher. There is reason to believe Covid19 has been around longer than we thought. Italian doctors are now looking into increased flu related deaths going back to October 2019.
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shader
Footballguy
The original outcome was an unrealistic theoretical prediction based on if us humans were completely ignorant and had no clue what a disease was. It was never a realistic prediction under any circumstances.
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shader
Footballguy
Trump supporters believe Trump over the epidemiologists now. Why would you start caring what they supposedly will believe in the future?
cloppbeast
Footballguy
These are not accurate cfrs outside of Italy or maybe Spain. You can find a link in this thread which says .6%. It's almost certainly less than 1%.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
That is just naive.
The virus can/will spread even among asymptomatic people. So you can spread the disease long before you know you are sick, and should be staying at home. And, we know with behavior during the flu season, people don't stay home when they are sick.
shader
Footballguy
The global cfr (outside China) is currently 4.9% with over half the active cases in a state where death wouldn't have happened yet. Of course there are also many cases which haven't yet been diagnosed.
The "almost certainly less than 1%" line is a total guess based on zero evidence other than a random study or two.
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shader
Footballguy
It's a novel virus. That means no one has immunity. Only a complete shutdown, the likes of which none of us have ever seen, kept this from spreading to half of the population very quickly.
Pres Trump at WH says Dr. Fauci & Dr. Birx will be going over data & models about the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S.
He also reiterated that WH guidelines go through 4/30.
“It’s a matter of life and death frankly,” Trump said. “I know our citizens will rise to the occasion.”
So, now what do we do? Do we keep up the "overreaction" argument, or do we adopt this new approach and say we always knew this was a life or death situation?
He also reiterated that WH guidelines go through 4/30.
“It’s a matter of life and death frankly,” Trump said. “I know our citizens will rise to the occasion.”
So, now what do we do? Do we keep up the "overreaction" argument, or do we adopt this new approach and say we always knew this was a life or death situation?
cloppbeast
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
Putting you on ignore because your line of thinking is not worth listening to. But you're the one rejecting the actual data.
The HIGH range is 70% of the population at 1%. We are going to do better on both numbers. Not quite jon_mx numbers tho.
I see Trump's writers are finally learning to manage expectations:
Philip Rucker
@PhilipRucker
Trump warns of a "very, very painful" two weeks ahead. “It’s going to be like a burst of light, I really think and I hope. Our strength will be tested, our endurance will be tried, but America will answer with love and courage and ironclad resolve.”
Philip Rucker
@PhilipRucker
Trump warns of a "very, very painful" two weeks ahead. “It’s going to be like a burst of light, I really think and I hope. Our strength will be tested, our endurance will be tried, but America will answer with love and courage and ironclad resolve.”
The Commish
Footballguy
ummmm....have you paid ANY attention to those who still believe this is a hoax to try and tank Trump's chances? Or the people claiming this was going to be the end of the world?
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
What an All Star line up on this task force starting with the President.
The Commish
Footballguy
Is this referring to the Trump press conference? Did he replace his cast of characters? I might have to tune in.
Too late - I think the main folks are about done - but I caught the end of Brix, and then Fauci, followed by Pence - still on.
Very simply - mitigation efforts are working, we need to maintain in hard hit areas, and we need to get a jump on areas where it has not hit yet to keep the numbers in a manageable range
If you've got something of value to add, make your point and why you think it. Throwing stuff like this is pure trolling and you know it. Stop it.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
Solid presser. After the rollercoaster of the last couple of weeks, I thought Fauci and Birx would've been gone by now.
I'm glad Trump seems to be relying on them more now. Although, I suspect he knows the next month plus will mainly be terrible news, so it's good to let Fauci and Birx deliver it and be the face of it.
Either way, I'm glad they are still there. They've always had a great ability to offer some reassurance while making people understand the seriousness and urgency.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Trolling? Not at all. Are you watching this press conference? They are illustrating via charts how we can expect the cases to slowdown over the next month. This is something we should all be rooting for.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I am 100% confused right now. Calling the President doing a good job is trolling now? There are multiple attacks on the President in this thread and name calling and I don't see them being called out for trolling. I legit did nothing wrong.
adonis
Footballguy
Interesting. I seem to remember it being an incredibly optimistic estimate, seemingly based on remarks from Fauci - but memory could be faulty. Basically I remember it being if everything works as expected, that's where we'll be in several months.
In my opinion, the low end of that range isn't realistically an option while the upper end gets a bit more realistic but still generally optimistic.
We have a country of folks in large part not taking this seriously, thanks to Fox News, conservative media-sphere, and a President who only weeks ago was telling us the number of cases would go to 0. We are going to pay HUGE tolls for this, and thank God we have responsible CORPORATIONS, you know, the liberal ones, that pushed for action WAY before the boneheads in charge, or the bozo's on Fox News admitted there was an issue.
SXSW was cancelled, Google had its employees working from home as did other tech companies. Many of the industry leaders set examples by pulling out of events, and pushing for their cancellation. All before leadership in this country even woke up to the challenge.
This is truly, and should be, an outrage for all Americans. Our government failed us, and there will be a HUGE toll in human life to pay for it. I'm not going to make a prediction, and I'm not hoping for many deaths. I hope we find a magic bullet tomorrow, or a cure, or a treatment, that knocks this thing dead in its tracks. But if that were to happen, it'd be in spite of actions from the government and not due to them. They've been asleep at the wheel, or worse, during one of the worst national crises of any of our lifetimes.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think that’s all the moderator wants- some support for the statement and not “X is a superstar” or “Y is a total bum” with no context.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I cant listen to him, so not watching. How exactly does he think we expect stuff to slow down during the next month.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
This is beyond bizarre. Whole threads dedicated to how horrible Trump is (name calling and all) and one post in here, very accurate in my view, the best press conference and info on this BY FAR. Trump actually behaving honorably, not even talking very much. WOW.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
By continuing the extended social distancing for 30 days. Faucci predicting deaths keep going up but peak in 1-2 weeks and then keep going down.
He hasn't even been talking. Hardly. The information is valuable enough to overcome your....um....any issue you have with Trump.
msommer
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
Sounds like a book I once read. Don't know for sure since it was probably back in 1984 and I was just a kid.
I missed his opening remarks, but what I have heard is pretty good stuff trying to explain how the scientists see this playing out, and how that can change with more data.
Fauci and Birx have gotten Trump's attention. He is listening to their advice - he even acknowledged that there were others who were pushing for the "ride it out" scenario.
Sure, I wish he had done this a month ago - but I don't know what else to expect of him in this moment. I'd like to see the Feds get more involved in procuring the necessary equipment and rationing it out rather than having state bid against each other - but I do get the sense that Trump is finally taking this seriously.
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The General
Footballguy
I'm about 30 minutes behind but this thing is 100X better so far because donald is letting the experts answer the questions. Big improvement.
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The General
Footballguy
Washington State and "awful" Jay Inslee the stars of this thing so far!
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