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Government Response To The Coronavirus


James Daulton

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9 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

A very small percentage. I also bet we prob have a deaths in the last couple of weeks attributed to pneumonia (or something else related), but never tested for Covid-19. That's neither here nor there.

The fact that we have so many unidentified cases (and I presume your argument here centers around that) leads me to believe we're unprepared, and if we have an outbreak, our healthcare system will become overwhelmed. We're not teflon, contrary to common belief. 

Furthermore, and this will be my only comments on this (because what I am stating is fact and there is zero reason to debate it), but what he said on Hannity was really doing the American public a great disservice, I don't know how anyone can refute that. I don't expect anyone who supports Trump to acknowledge that, but he could've delivered a remain calm message without his personal opinion undermining the WHO. 

Pretty simple and direct message, just like this for Joe Public who hasn't been following too much (I can keep adding to it, but that's as far as I'm going):

Listen, the threat to the American public currently remains low, and while that is the case today, that can change. We may face some disruptions in our daily lives for a short time, businesses may have employees work from home, schools might shut, but done right, we as the American people will beat this easily and quickly. Currently, it is a dangerous virus to those with  pre-existing conditions and the elderly, and they should be more cautious than usual.

 

You presume correctly, you can't mathematically say there is a large number of unknown cases and simultaneously say the mortality in the US is going to be high.  You can double or triple the 11 deaths right now because of misdiagnosis and the math still doesn't work.  We aren't going to be anywhere near the WHO Global number.

I'm not a Trump supporter (yet) and neither is Ivan K or several others in this very thread that disagree with your take about the Hannity interview.  What you wanted him to say isn't there.

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2 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

We cannot force people into quarantine like China did, public will refuse.  We are testing folks as we have kits available.  What else do you recommend we do?

Well the general advice about washing hands, etc. are good starts.  But there should be a pretty hard education effort for seniors as well.  CV19 is WAY more contagious than the flu, so pretending it is just another flu isn't really real.  Seniors should absolutely be taking steps to limit their public exposure while this thing is in full circulation mode.

Secondly, limiting the spread as much as possible is important.  Huge swaths of people getting complications at the same time and needing hospitalization is going to mean more deaths.  You may not be able to use marshal law, but closing down big gatherings, discouraging unnecessary travel, and encouraging self quarantine (not going to work) are important to smooth out the spread and hopefully save lives.

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9 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

agreed.  It is bad news for sure.  It just isn't worth shutting down your normal daily routine for.

I was responding to your statement that folks were overestimating the severity.  That seems pretty severe.  Whether you should change your routine is a different question.

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6 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

I know government has been telling us exactly what you said in your first paragraph.  Italy announced no fans at sporting events.  Do you think we should do the same?

Good article on how timing of gov't response can affect severity of outbreaks (based on data from 1918 flu epidemic).  Written in 2007 so it isn't based on CV19 at all.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/208354

Main points:

A critical question in pandemic influenza planning is the role nonpharmaceutical interventions might play in delaying the temporal effects of a pandemic, reducing the overall and peak attack rate, and reducing the number of cumulative deaths. Such measures could potentially provide valuable time for pandemic-strain vaccine and antiviral medication production and distribution. Optimally, appropriate implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions would decrease the burden on health care services and critical infrastructure.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's newly released interim community mitigation guidance recommends activating nonpharmaceutical interventions when outbreaks due to a pandemic virus strain first are confirmed in a state or metropolitan service region.16 Several theoretical models suggest that the effect of targeted, layered strategies for nonpharmaceutical interventions may be optimized when community influenza attack rates are 1% or lower.11-15 Given the exponential growth of an unmitigated influenza pandemic, it is reasonable to expect that the timing of interventions will be among the most critical factors. Such expectations and biological realities are consistent with our observations of the 1918 pandemic, when rapid public health response time was a critical factor in the successful application of nonpharmaceutical interventions.

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Think about this for a minute: 

The virus has infected people in 17 states so far.  Whatever the number of people who have it in the US right now is, it's a significant number. 

On the other hand there are only 11 deaths currently attributed to it right now. 10 out of those 11 have other health issues and compromised immune systems.  9 out of those 11 were from the same elderly health care facility that attended to people that were already ill. 9 out of those 11 people were over the age of 60.

The mortality rate isn't going to be anywhere near the WHO Global number.

1- Stay at home if you're elderly or have other health issues.

2- Stay at home if you're sick.

3- Behave in society as if you don't want to get sick.

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6 minutes ago, tonydead said:

People in here are overestimating it's severity here.  You were responding to that.

https://tbsnews.net/international/coronavirus-chronicle/coronavirus-where-most-people-are-dying-out-every-100-not-china

China is the epicentre of the deadly coronavirus, and most fatalities are reported there. Despite the fact that the highest number of coronavirus-infected people are in China, fatality rate in the country is rather on the lower side. So which country has the highest fatality rate? It is the USA.

Out of every 100 infected persons in China, 3.75 persons have died. In USA, the number is almost double. There, 6.92 persons have died out of every 100 infected persons.

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Just now, tonydead said:

Think about this for a minute: 

The virus has infected people in 17 states so far.  Whatever the number of people who have it in the US right now is, it's a significant number. 

On the other hand there are only 11 deaths currently attributed to it right now. 10 out of those 11 have other health issues and compromised immune systems.  9 out of those 11 were from the same elderly health care facility that attended to people that were already ill. 9 out of those 11 people were over the age of 60.

The mortality rate isn't going to be anywhere near the WHO Global number.

1- Stay at home if you're elderly or have other health issues.

2- Stay at home if you're sick.

3- Behave in society as if you don't want to get sick.

If we don't know how many have it, what makes you think we know how many have died from it?  We are not testing.

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13 minutes ago, KPD said:

https://tbsnews.net/international/coronavirus-chronicle/coronavirus-where-most-people-are-dying-out-every-100-not-china

China is the epicentre of the deadly coronavirus, and most fatalities are reported there. Despite the fact that the highest number of coronavirus-infected people are in China, fatality rate in the country is rather on the lower side. So which country has the highest fatality rate? It is the USA.

Out of every 100 infected persons in China, 3.75 persons have died. In USA, the number is almost double. There, 6.92 persons have died out of every 100 infected persons.

 

2 hours ago, tonydead said:

 

Let's stop arguing about it and just make a friendly wager.  $20 says the actually number, no estimates, deaths in the US divided by recorded cases, is O/U 1.0% on election day this November.  I'll take the under.  You have to remember that 3.4% is the actual global mortality rate, that includes Wuhan where they eat bats and piss in the streets.

 

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22 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Think about this for a minute: 

The virus has infected people in 17 states so far.  Whatever the number of people who have it in the US right now is, it's a significant number. 

On the other hand there are only 11 deaths currently attributed to it right now. 10 out of those 11 have other health issues and compromised immune systems.  9 out of those 11 were from the same elderly health care facility that attended to people that were already ill. 9 out of those 11 people were over the age of 60.

The mortality rate isn't going to be anywhere near the WHO Global number.

1- Stay at home if you're elderly or have other health issues.

2- Stay at home if you're sick.

3- Behave in society as if you don't want to get sick.

The mortality rate will be anywhere from .7 to 5 percent depending on the level of care. The USA is handling this terribly right now but it’s remarkably ridiculous to argue the USA death rate right now.

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49 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

We cannot force people into quarantine like China did, public will refuse.  We are testing folks as we have kits available.  What else do you recommend we do?

unless things have changed from yesterday, we are ONLY testing those who have the symptoms AND were in China....we're passed that narrow focus at this point.  It needs to be opened up, but that might have already happened today.

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11 minutes ago, shader said:

So wait a second, are there people actually trying to argue that Trump didn’t call this virus a hoax?  I don’t see how anyone can read his comments and think that.

He didn't

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2 hours ago, dkp993 said:

The are large portions of the country that excuse away the things he says because he’s just Trump.  This is an example of that.    

Hi.  I hate Trump. I've hated Trump since the 2016 primary, I hate him now, and I hope he loses in November.

You're grossly misrepresenting what he actually said.  

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3 hours ago, squistion said:

That is isn't a fact and the mortality rate can't be accurately predicted at this time since this is the first exposure of the US public to this virus. 1% is a good guess but it could well be 2% like the flu epidemic of 1918, which was initially thought to be just another ordinary strain of the flu but turned out to be quite virulent (and more people died from it than were killed in WW1). 

And yet when Trump says that the real death rate is probably less than 3.4%, he's an idiot.

For some reason, Trump just seems to bring out the worst in everyone.

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2 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

And yet when Trump says that the real death rate is probably less than 3.4%, he's an idiot.

For some reason, Trump just seems to bring out the worst in everyone.

Ivan, I've tried to explain it before. The way he talks, punches down and aggrandizes triggers a visceral hatred in me. If a person like that just makes you laugh or has no effect, then I don't know what else to say to bridge the gap between us.

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7 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

In that particular clip, Trump isn't saying that people should go to work with the virus.  He's saying that many of them do go to work with it.  Which is absolutely true.

Thank you.

Just listened to the clip for the first time and that's exactly how I took it. 

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1 minute ago, IvanKaramazov said:

And yet when Trump says that the real death rate is probably less than 3.4%, he's an idiot.

I could get into so much trouble responded to this - but lets just say, I agree with your premises - and leave the rest out.

 

On a more serious note - Trump's biggest problem when it comes to stuff like this is that he has a history of lying, exaggeration, and trying to make himself look good - and that all weighs against him in times that require seriousness.  He has lost any benefit of the doubt with his previous behavior.

 

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40 minutes ago, shader said:

So wait a second, are there people actually trying to argue that Trump didn’t call this virus a hoax?  I don’t see how anyone can read his comments and think that.

Good Grief.  From FactCheck.org:

Quote

 

The kerfuffle began at the rally in North Charleston, South Carolina when Trump accused the Democrats of “politicizing” the coronavirus outbreak.

“Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus, you know that, right?” he said. “Coronavirus, they’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs. You say, ‘How’s President Trump doing?’ They go, ‘Oh, not good, not good.’ They have no clue. They don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa.”

Then the president, who often dismissed special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation as a hoax, continued, “They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything. They tried it over and over. They’d been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning. They lost. It’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax.”

Trump went on to praise his administration for taking “the most aggressive action in modern history to prevent the spread of this illness in the United States,” referring to travel restrictions on foreign nationals who recently visited China. 

“A virus starts in China, bleeds its way into various countries all around the world, doesn’t spread widely at all in the United States because of the early actions that myself and my administration took against a lot of other wishes,” Trump said, “and the Democrats’ single talking point, and you see it, is that it’s Donald Trump’s fault, right?”

 

 

A good number of people in this forum need to take a hard look at themselves and figure out how to seek truth.  Three false criticisms repeated over this morning:

1- Trump call the virus a hoax.

2- Trump told people with the virus to go to work.

3- Trump lied about the mortality rate of the virus.

I know Trump isn't the most eloquent speaker and doesn't always tell the truth, but, these are 3 demonstrably false talking points.  All parrotted by social media.  I have to believe the average poster in here has to be smarter than this.

 

Edited by tonydead
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1 hour ago, Megla said:

LOL and you somehow say this statement, describing people who don't realize they have the virus and do as they usually do when the have a cold or flu is in someway a statement saying that it is OK to go to work with CV19.

That is one heck of a reach but not unexpected

It's not a reach... It's trying to interpret the ramblings of a senile old man. Look, part of the job of President is to be an effective communicator. Isn't that what the Right said about Reagan and why he was such a great President?  Trump is the anti-Reagan - You can't figure out what in the world he's getting at most of the time. His speaking style is murky and imprecise at best and completely incoherent at worst.

What message do you take from that word salad?

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8 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Ivan, I've tried to explain it before. The way he talks, punches down and aggrandizes triggers a visceral hatred in me. If a person like that just makes you laugh or has no effect, then I don't know what else to say to bridge the gap between us.

I agree with you.  I just find it very easy to separate my personal dislike of a person from what they're saying.  

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1 minute ago, Workhorse said:

It's not a reach... It's trying to interpret the ramblings of a senile old man. Look, part of the job of President is to be an effective communicator. Isn't that what the Right said about Reagan and why he was such a great President?  Trump is the anti-Reagan - You can't figure out what in the world he's getting at most of the time. His speaking style is murky and imprecise at best and completely incoherent at worst.

What message do you take from that word salad?

I understood his point perfectly and I typed out his point in this very thread

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2 minutes ago, Workhorse said:

It's not a reach... It's trying to interpret the ramblings of a senile old man. Look, part of the job of President is to be an effective communicator. Isn't that what the Right said about Reagan and why he was such a great President?  Trump is the anti-Reagan - You can't figure out what in the world he's getting at most of the time. His speaking style is murky and imprecise at best and completely incoherent at worst.

What message do you take from that word salad?

Well if that's your requirement for President it looks like you will be voting third party in November.

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46 minutes ago, shader said:

So wait a second, are there people actually trying to argue that Trump didn’t call this virus a hoax?  I don’t see how anyone can read his comments and think that.

Did President Trump Refer to the Coronavirus as a ‘Hoax’?

Quote

Despite creating some confusion with his remarks, Trump did not call the coronavirus itself a hoax.

 

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12 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I could get into so much trouble responded to this - but lets just say, I agree with your premises - and leave the rest out.

 

On a more serious note - Trump's biggest problem when it comes to stuff like this is that he has a history of lying, exaggeration, and trying to make himself look good - and that all weighs against him in times that require seriousness.  He has lost any benefit of the doubt with his previous behavior.

 

So when the sky isn't actually falling, chicken little hands won't be believed.  How sad.

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I thought this was a pretty astute observation:

 

Max Fisher @Max_Fisher ·1h

Nearly every question I get about coronavirus is some variation of "How worried should I be?"

Here’s my best attempt at an answer.

Short version: you’re probably overstating the individual health risk, and understating the systemic dangers of an outbreak.

 

The odds of any individual getting the virus, and having a serious reaction, are very small - so small that its not worth worrying about, imo.

But, the damage to the economy can be big - if we start shuttering businesses for weeks to avoid further spread.  And, the more we see the virus spread, the more likely we will see rolling economic shut-downs around the country.

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14 minutes ago, Megla said:

Kudos, that is refreshing around here

IK hit the nail on the head.  I hear all the time that pro-Trumpers will believe anything he says.  It appears anti-Trumpers will believe anything that he doesn't say that they see on social media.

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1 hour ago, KPD said:

“A lot of people will have this and it’s very mild. They’ll get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor, they don’t even call a doctor. You never hear about those people. So you can’t put them down in the category of the overall population in terms of this corona flu and or virus. So you just can’t do that. So, if you know, we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.”

==

What part of his quote do I not understand?  It seems like he's minimizing the disease severity.

 

I am the furthest thing from a Trump guy. While he 100% is trying to quell fears because all he cares about are his numbers, I THINK he was trying to also say that some people have the disease and don’t know it because their symptoms were milder than some of these other cases and they just went about their lives how they normally would with a cold. Not that they SHOULD go to work etc if they have corona symptoms. 

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1 hour ago, tonydead said:

People in here are overestimating it's severity here.  You were responding to that.

 

1 hour ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

It's the same virus in China.

 

1 hour ago, KPD said:

https://tbsnews.net/international/coronavirus-chronicle/coronavirus-where-most-people-are-dying-out-every-100-not-china

China is the epicentre of the deadly coronavirus, and most fatalities are reported there. Despite the fact that the highest number of coronavirus-infected people are in China, fatality rate in the country is rather on the lower side. So which country has the highest fatality rate? It is the USA.

Out of every 100 infected persons in China, 3.75 persons have died. In USA, the number is almost double. There, 6.92 persons have died out of every 100 infected persons.

 

1 hour ago, tonydead said:

See!  It's almost double the rate in the US! 

Without acknowledging the fact that we had a nursing home for the sick and dying get hit accounting for 90% of our deaths.  Wow.

Ok, downplay the deaths in China because it's China, and downplay the deaths here, because it hit a nursing home first.  Guess what, people are still dying so the disease has to be somewhat severe no?

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5 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

I am the furthest thing from a Trump guy. While he 100% is trying to quell fears because all he cares about are his numbers, I THINK he was trying to also say that some people have the disease and don’t know it because their symptoms were milder than some of these other cases and they just went about their lives how they normally would with a cold. Not that they SHOULD go to work etc if they have corona symptoms. 

The best words, the best words. Really. Believe me

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1 hour ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I was responding to your statement that folks were overestimating the severity.  That seems pretty severe.  Whether you should change your routine is a different question.

It would obviously depend on the routine, like traveling to China for work. 

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36 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Well if that's your requirement for President it looks like you will be voting third party in November.

It's a pretty good requirement honestly if you think about it.  And you are absolutely correct, neither Biden or Trump look mentally equipped to handle the stresses of the job.

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21 minutes ago, KPD said:

 

 

 

Ok, downplay the deaths in China because it's China, and downplay the deaths here, because it hit a nursing home first.  Guess what, people are still dying so the disease has to be somewhat severe no?

Sure it's several times more severe than the flu.  Try this:

Triple the number of deaths in the U.S. AND imagine the number of people truely infected across 17 states right this second. 

If the number you imagined is over 1000 people the mortality rate is still less than the WHO Global number.

Edited by tonydead
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2 hours ago, Sneegor said:

We cannot force people into quarantine like China did, public will refuse.  We are testing folks as we have kits available.  What else do you recommend we do?

Again, American exceptionalism at work.

I say we are unprepared because we lack leadership and clear messaging from said leaders.  Plus, the CDC made some terrible moves early on, moves that other countries have not done.

The USA is acting more akin to Iran rather than South Korea or Singapore.

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1 minute ago, tonydead said:

Triple the number of deaths in the U.S. AND imagine the number of people truely infected across 17 states right this second. 

One of the challenges with this is that those currently alive and infected could lead to more dead in the future.  So, its not simply about - current infections/deaths

Some percentage of infected are on their way to death.

 

I don't know the answer to this - but I would be more interested in knowing current infections/current hospitalized as an indication of the severity of the problem in the US.

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2 hours ago, Megla said:

Seems pretty clear

 

Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump 2m2 minutes ago

I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work. This is just more Fake News and disinformation put out by the Democrats, in particular MSDNC. Comcast covers the CoronaVirus situation horribly, only looking to do harm to the incredible & successful effort being made!

 

40 minutes ago, Megla said:

I understood his point perfectly and I typed out his point in this very thread

So where did you "type" his point in this thread?  Seems like you copy/pasted his tweet defending himself which was itself a word salad that only missed the word hoax.

 

Leeroy's explanation makes sense if you remove the fact that Trump has constantly downplayed the disease to the point of making it a nothingburger.  This was just more of the same.

 

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4 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

One of the challenges with this is that those currently alive and infected could lead to more dead in the future.  So, its not simply about - current infections/deaths

Some percentage of infected are on their way to death.

 

I don't know the answer to this - but I would be more interested in knowing current infections/current hospitalized as an indication of the severity of the problem in the US.

That's why I tripled the number of deaths.  And I'd like to think more and more people aren't getting infected, but that's probably not true so your denominator is continuing to grow as well.

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42 minutes ago, jamny said:
1 hour ago, shader said:

So wait a second, are there people actually trying to argue that Trump didn’t call this virus a hoax?  I don’t see how anyone can read his comments and think that.

Did President Trump Refer to the Coronavirus as a ‘Hoax’?

Quote

Despite creating some confusion with his remarks, Trump did not call the coronavirus itself a hoax.

This is technically correct. But it needs additional context.

Trump has previously used the word "hoax" to convey two different meanings:

1. when describing things that he believed to be a partisan witch hunt (e.g., impeachment).

2. when describing things that he believes did not happen (e.g., Russian meddling in the election).

Personally, I think that Trump was using definition #1 when talking about the coronavirus. But I doubt that 100% of people will interpret it that way, and there will be many people who believe that the coronavirus is a hoax. And that's not good for any of us. Whether Trump was being deliberate or not, his comments are making the country less safe, and he should issue a retraction immediately to correct the record.

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