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Government Response To The Coronavirus


James Daulton

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20 hours ago, pollardsvision said:

Then, we get absolutely clobbered by a pandemic. We are #1 or #2 in the world in lives lost, depending on China's real numbers. #3 in the list will end up with far fewer than half of the lives we lost (yes, I know the U.S is a big country, just as it was in 2009).

I don't think this will be true by the time this whole thing is over.  I think that the developing world is behind more developed countries on the curve (because of fewer international travelers) but will eventually have larger death numbers (due to population density and inadequate health care). 

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1 hour ago, Kal El said:

In my county, beaches are opening up as a trial run, whereas the 3 counties to the south of us are not. Those 3 are among the hardest hit in Florida, and what's to stop them from driving up and clogging our beaches because they can't use theirs?

My in-laws have already asked if they can come up here and take our kids to the beach.  That's a big "Negative ghostrider...does not compute" :lmao: 

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22 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

We dismissed the WHO test because we thought we could do better, then we spent a month developing a test that ended up not working. We banned private labs from developing their own tests. We showed no urgency whatsoever. All while the virus raged across the country. Then the administration had the gall to claim that things in the USA weren't that bad because our case numbers were so low. (They were low because we weren't testing people.)

Testing capacity is still below what we claimed it would be. The administration repeatedly claims that the tests are available, then backtracks and claims that they're "on order"! That alone proves that the response has not been "very good". It's been 3 months and we still don't have enough testing capability to open up the country.

That doesn't even account for the fact that we were literally welcoming infected people with open arms as they came streaming into the country, with no testing or quarantining. Because leadership assumed that the virus could only come from foreigners from China.

Pat yourself on the back all you want. It doesn't change the cold hard truth: we need to run millions of tests per day, and we're no where close to being ready to pull that off.

pfft....he inherited a broken test...for a virus that didn’t exist.

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1 hour ago, Snotbubbles said:

The issues I have with your position are:

We are the third largest country in the world by population behind only China and India.  So the raw numbers will almost certainly look worse here than any other country.  By raw numbers we have tested more people than any other country so it makes sense that we will have more positive cases and thus more deaths.  We have also been counting "presumptive" COVID patients that die as COVID deaths even without a positive test result.  So the reporting is slanted towards having someone die by COVID because that's how States are being funded.  Imagine a 90 year old in a nursing home, has congestive heart failure, history of strokes, diabetes has been in and out of the hospital for years, contracts COVID 19 and dies the next day...COVID death.  They may even mark it as a "presumptive" COVID death even if he didn't have a positive test. 

Then there are other factors to take into account like age of population, density of population, etc.  If you look at the map of infections here in the US you can see that large cities have rapid infection because of the close proximity of the population but other less populous States don't have the same rate of infection because the population is more spread out.  New York's response really makes things look very bad because they spread it to surrounding States.  Looking at infections and deaths by country as a barometer of the response effectiveness, without looking at a multitude of other factors doesn't really tell you much. 

When I see people continually bring up a pandemic response team, I go back to the question, "Would a response team have prevented COVID from reaching the US?"  Absolutely not.  So IMO, prevention would have been impossible.  So what should we look at next?  Do we have enough equipment to fight the virus?  The answer to that question was/is, yes.  Really, where the response falls short is testing.  But the testing procedures that were in place were antiquated and needed to be improved.  They were improved, now it's a matter of getting enough tests to the public.  But testing doesn't prevent the spread, it only informs.  So while the response hasn't been perfect, it's still been very good.  I guess we can always look at things in hindsight, but that's always 20/20 and almost never in context.    

COVID deaths are being under-reported, not over-reported:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

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7 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

COVID deaths are being under-reported, not over-reported:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

Which is always the case in a pandemic; it always gets revised upward after the event.

Also,,we’re not testing anything close to the amount we need to be. 200K per day when we should be running 5M.

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1 hour ago, Kal El said:

How is that going to work anywhere that doesn't normally require an ID to enter?

Let me get this straight...

We should sit at home and trust that a solution is forthcoming.

However requiring an ID where we dont normally require an ID is just too tough to figure out. Please stay at home. 

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2 hours ago, Snotbubbles said:

When I see people continually bring up a pandemic response team, I go back to the question, "Would a response team have prevented COVID from reaching the US?"  Absolutely not.  So IMO, prevention would have been impossible. 

I know this is reiteration but the clockwork is so facile. This is Trump's framing, it's ALL - or - NOTHING.

The point is moving preparedness and mitigation/intervention efforts up by one week would save lives. Moving it up by 2 weeks would save more. By 4 weeks, even more. And the results are magnified or exponentially reflected by each day, each week, each month.

This whole premise is such awful, awful reasoning and it starts with the President. I don't think anyone past him takes it seriously when analyzed even for a moment.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006
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1 hour ago, Rich Conway said:

I'm going to have to vehemently disagree with this.  Our front-line medical workers didn't, and still don't, have anywhere near enough PPE.

Correct. Has been the case at times in NYC/NJ and throughout Michigan rn.

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On 5/2/2020 at 6:43 PM, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Asked about that during the interview, Schuchat said: “I think in retrospect, taking action earlier could have delayed further amplification (of the U.S. outbreak), or delayed the speed of it.”

Case closed. This is the no. 2 at CDC and really most senior respected considering Redfield is Redfield.

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41 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Let me get this straight...

We should sit at home and trust that a solution is forthcoming.

However requiring an ID where we dont normally require an ID is just too tough to figure out. Please stay at home. 

People are pulling guns on store employees who tell them they have to wear masks. You think they're going to be able to collect IDs?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/us/coronavirus-masks-protests.html

 

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4 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

In the John Oliver video I posted above, he states the “experts guidance” for the U.S. is to conduct between 5M and 20M tests per day (that’s the combined number of diagnostic and antibody tests.) Anyone seen anything regarding that?

Anyway, currently the U.S. is doing 200K tests per day.

We apparently have a much greater capacity if you’re talking about just the kits. But diagnostic kits are of no value if you don’t have enough reagents or swabs. We have had shortages of both.

Of course, the reagent is different for each manufacturer, and there are bottlenecks in the supply chain. For the diagnostic test, there are 10 approved antibody test manufacturers, and another 150 tests which have not received FDA approval. It’s basically the Wild West out there in the testing world with no one coordinating, duplication of effort, and no one effectively overseeing the supply chain.

Given the format, Oliver unsurprisingly does not give citation. I’ll try to do some research in between Zoom meetings to see if I can figure where he got his info.

The Last Week video also recaps some of delays in testing caused by the CDC; we basically lost the entire month of February as they struggled developing their own test. We declined the WHO offer to use their tests. You may recall the initial tests sent out were contaminated & didn’t work, and in that period they were not approving any private tests. By the end of the month they reversed course and opened it up to private labs.

Some of the diagnostic tests are notoriously unreliable. I tested negative for the virus and positive for the antibodies. Apparently my low grade fever and mild symptoms 3 weeks ago was Covid 19. Or am I false positive? No one knows. My primary care told me to continue living as if I don’t have the antibodies, because we don’t know for certain.

Hoping we have a seasonal decline. Seems like much of the country does not grasp what we are contending with, and seem to think their cabin fever is sufficient justification for ending shelter in place. Oh, and there are more important things than living (actual actual quote.) Like...$$.

In a Zoom call with a Lansing dental hygienist a few days, I discovered testing is incredibly difficult to obtain in Michigan. My sister (physical therapist) is working as a Hot Zone volunteer, teaching HWC how to properly don PPE. She confirmed the scarcity of testing in Michigan and said obtaining PPE rn is extremely chaotic.

Thanks. Yeah the testing is an interesting issue.  My neighbors are a married couple who are both emergency room docs.  They say they are having to test people 3 times due to the false results that the test keep registering.  So nuts.  

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4 hours ago, The Commish said:

This will be easily answered in a couple weeks.  And the politics of it is already kicking in...there are people convinced that a continued reduction of cases can actually come in the form of 10,11,12,13,12,11,10,9 (number of deaths a week by day)....because there are "less" at the end of a week, that is "downward trend".  Thinking many of these states would actually reset and go "back" a phase is pure fantasy.

Sure, everything is easily answered after the fact.  I was asking about thoughts on it now before we know the answer.  

Edited by dkp993
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3 hours ago, Snotbubbles said:

The whole phased re-openings are nothing more than a controlled infection.  Of course there will be flare ups, that's the point.  You get the increase in infections but you control it so it doesn't overwhelm the hospitals.  

Thanks, do you think the general public knows this or views it the same way?  I’ve heard no discussion about what you’re saying (other then the flattening of the curve talk which I think many people misunderstand) as common knowledge.  

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15 hours ago, dkp993 said:

Not sure I agree with the first half of your assessment.  Cali is just days form moving to stage 2 and Newsome has been very conservative in managing this.   
Your bolded sentence is interesting and I sure hope so. My concern is the public pressure if a meaningful flare up happens.  

Is California's stage 2 the same as the Trump guidelines phase 2?   Based on the earlier exchange where it is said that Nevada was following the California guidelines instead as a complaint so I assume "no".    (Okay I found an article to re-enforce that assumption).

But as far as California's testing from what I have read it is inconsistent.  In some places anyone can ask for a test a get it and in other places there are not enough tests (or at least supplies) to test those potential patients and front line workers.  Maybe California believes that the high risk places have enough testing to enter into phase 2 which seems more like phase 1 of the federal guidelines from a quick glance with the plan that the testing is going to catch up in the other areas before they are projected to be a hot spot.   I'm guessing you have a much better, local grasp on how close my assumptions are to reality and where I miss the boat,  but news reports such as this one from NPR seems to suggest that California is falling short of its own guideline when it comes to testing.  Hopefully that is just an informational lag and the prerequisites to know of a flare up before it requires more extreme measures other than isolating those in contact are getting in to place as I type.

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My God

Quote

NYT: Trump admin "is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1... nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.”

 

Edited by zftcg
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2 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Nice job by the President supporting re-openings.

Saving livelihoods saves lives not only stateside but globally as well.

The White House expects that re-opening the economy will double the death rate.

That's not saving lives.

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Just now, TripItUp said:
2 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

The White House expects that re-opening the economy will double the death rate.

That's not saving lives.

It's an advanced concept that not all can comprehend.

Thanks for the Magic 8-Ball response.

Anyway, to re-iterate: Trump expects that his suggestion will result in an additional 1200 deaths per day (on top of the current 1800 deaths per day).

That's far higher than the number of people who are committing suicide over the despair of the economy.

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32 minutes ago, zftcg said:

My God

“NYT: Trump admin ‘is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1... nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.’”

Hard to say what the time frame is (18-24 months?), but if we're really not going to do anything to crush the curve, and are content with flattening it, the floor for total deaths is at least another million Americans.

327,000,000 people * 50% infected before herd immunity * .75% fatality rate (for all cases, not just confirmed) = 1.2 million.  It's a very straightforward calculation, confirmed by all the evidence we have so far. 

And that's the best case given the choices we've made (ETA: absent a medical breakthrough).  If the death rate is 1% and herd immunity isn't a thing until 75% the number will be much higher.

We do seem to have done enough to keep the medical system from collapse, which is definitely a win.  But at 2,000 per day we're looking at least another year and a half to the 1.2 mil figure.

 

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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1 hour ago, dkp993 said:

Sure, everything is easily answered after the fact.  I was asking about thoughts on it now before we know the answer.  

I don't think there is a question there will be flare ups....and I'd be shocked if several of them are blamed on Florida and/or Vegas.  I'm comfortable setting the probability at 95%.  I'd be interested in those who don't believe there will be flare ups and what their rationale is.  I haven't found anyone outside of those who believe this isn't a real thing and total "hoax" and honestly, I couldn't care less what those people think.  

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5 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

It's an advanced concept that not all can comprehend.

I mean, when you really think about it, what is death? Our existence is a continuum, and who can really say where the line is between life and eternal rest ...

[I'd try to come up with more pabulum like this, but I'm a) not in college anymore and b) not stoned out of my mind.]

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29 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

The White House expects that re-opening the economy will double the death rate.

That's not saving lives.

Oh...that's nothing compared to the fear mongering scenarios thrown out there by the GOP.  Have you heard these projections?  I had one last night trying to tell me that 50 million people would die (globally) if the US was shut down for another 3 weeks.  I am not making that up.  Of course, the venn diagram between this assertion and the assertion that it's all a hoax in the first place is a single unifying circle, but still....it's out there and people are buying it.

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3 minutes ago, The Commish said:

I don't think there is a question there will be flare ups....and I'd be shocked if several of them are blamed on Florida and/or Vegas.  I'm comfortable setting the probability at 95%.  I'd be interested in those who don't believe there will be flare ups and what their rationale is.  I haven't found anyone outside of those who believe this isn't a real thing and total "hoax" and honestly, I couldn't care less what those people think.  

I'll take the under on another NY happening...so I guess it depends on what a "flare up" is.

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1 minute ago, TripItUp said:

I'll take the under on another NY happening...so I guess it depends on what a "flare up" is.

Seems rather simple unless one wants to throw political :hophead: in to distract. Of course if one considers NY to be a "flare up" I don't think the conversation is going to go anywhere...that's a pretty dishonest position to start from IMO.

noun

noun: flare-up; plural noun: flare-ups; noun: flareup; plural noun: flareups

a sudden outburst of something, especially violence or a medical condition.

"a flare-up between the two countries"

 

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29 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Hard to say what the time frame is (18-24 months?), but if we're really not going to do anything to crush the curve, and are content with flattening it, the floor for total deaths is at least another million Americans.

327,000,000 people * 50% infected before herd immunity * .75% fatality rate (for all cases, not just confirmed) = 1.2 million.  It's a very straightforward calculation, confirmed by all the evidence we have so far. 

And that's the best case given the choices we've made (ETA: absent a medical breakthrough).  If the death rate is 1% and herd immunity isn't a thing until 75% the number will be much higher.

We do seem to have done enough to keep the medical system from collapse, which is definitely a win.  But at 2,000 per day we're looking at least another year and a half to the 1.2 mil figure.

 

Interesting to see the reactions of two liberal bloggers whom I respect. Josh Marshall, who is no fan of Trump, is urging caution because he thinks the projections reported by the Times seem out of line with current trends. Meanwhile, Kevin Drum, who is generally one of the more sober, fair-minded voices out there, is freaking out.

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Just now, The Commish said:

Seems rather simple unless one wants to throw political :hophead: in to distract. Of course if one considers NY to be a "flare up" I don't think the conversation is going to go anywhere...that's a pretty dishonest position to start from IMO.

noun

noun: flare-up; plural noun: flare-ups; noun: flareup; plural noun: flareups

a sudden outburst of something, especially violence or a medical condition.

"a flare-up between the two countries"

 

yeah, we're going to need something more precise than that definition to have an honest discussion about future "flare-ups."

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ABC News

@ABC

NEW: Colorado man arrested after federal agents allegedly discovered pipe bombs in his home had also been helping organize an armed protest demanding the state lift its coronavirus restrictions, an official briefed on the case tells

@ABC

https://abcnews.go.com/US/colorado-man-planning-armed-protest-states-coronavirus-restrictions/story?id=70491370&cid=social_twitter_abcn

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2 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

yeah, we're going to need something more precise than that definition to have an honest discussion about future "flare-ups."

I don't know why.  Seems pretty easy. 

if you have a consistent decrease in cases for three weeks, meaning new cases continue to be fewer and fewer each day, then you get a spike that shoots up for a period of days, that would be a flare up.  Doesn't seem all that complicated at all if we want to have a genuine conversation about it.

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10 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Interesting to see the reactions of two liberal bloggers whom I respect. Josh Marshall, who is no fan of Trump, is urging caution because he thinks the projections reported by the Times seem out of line with current trends. Meanwhile, Kevin Drum, who is generally one of the more sober, fair-minded voices out there, is freaking out.

Given that the imputed death rates from all those serology studies (that are our best estimate of how many cases there have really been in an area) are all in the same range I think it's likely Kevin Drum is misreading June 1st as a peak.

And I'm not predicting the flow of fatalities -- we do have quite a bit of control over that.  Obviously 1.2MM over, say, 3 years is better than 1.2MM by December, so that matters quite a bit.

But right now, absent anything to drive the case count down into the 100s accompanied by herculean tracking (which obviously isn't happening) or a wildly effective medical breakthrough (fingers crossed), the death toll is going to be massive before this ends.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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26 minutes ago, The Commish said:

I don't know why.  Seems pretty easy. 

if you have a consistent decrease in cases for three weeks, meaning new cases continue to be fewer and fewer each day, then you get a spike that shoots up for a period of days, that would be a flare up.  Doesn't seem all that complicated at all if we want to have a genuine conversation about it.

Under that definition, I really don't care about a city that increases from 24 cases to 76.    

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4 hours ago, Rich Conway said:

I'm going to have to vehemently disagree with this.  Our front-line medical workers didn't, and still don't, have anywhere near enough PPE.

What are you basing this on?  Did you just see Gov Cuomo's press conference?  It's a requirement for NY to have 90 days of PPE equipment on stockpile.  If you're using anecdotal accounts of hospitals having PPE shortages, that very well could be an instance of localities not providing equipment on stockpile.  I can tell you the anecdotal evidence I've seen the front line workers didn't run out of PPE.  But if you have some other non-anecdotal evidence I'd be happy to review and possibly change my position. 

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4 hours ago, [scooter] said:

We dismissed the WHO test because we thought we could do better, then we spent a month developing a test that ended up not working. We banned private labs from developing their own tests. We showed no urgency whatsoever. All while the virus raged across the country. Then the administration had the gall to claim that things in the USA weren't that bad because our case numbers were so low. (They were low because we weren't testing people.)

Testing capacity is still below what we claimed it would be. The administration repeatedly claims that the tests are available, then backtracks and claims that they're "on order"! That alone proves that the response has not been "very good". It's been 3 months and we still don't have enough testing capability to open up the country.

That doesn't even account for the fact that we were literally welcoming infected people with open arms as they came streaming into the country, with no testing or quarantining. Because leadership assumed that the virus could only come from foreigners from China.

Pat yourself on the back all you want. It doesn't change the cold hard truth: we need to run millions of tests per day, and we're no where close to being ready to pull that off.

Testing doesn't prevent the spread of the virus.  You can get a test on Monday and not have it and then come back on Tuesday positive.  Testing only informs, it doesn't prevent.

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3 hours ago, Tolstoy said:

pfft....he inherited a broken test...for a virus that didn’t exist.

The test wasn't broken, the manner in which you perform the test was.  Meaning, you get a sample, you send the sample to a lab, the lab runs the test, a couple days later the lab sends the results back to the doctor, the doctor tells the patient the diagnosis.  Now you get the sample, put it in a machine, 15 minutes later you get the results. 

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42 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Interesting to see the reactions of two liberal bloggers whom I respect. Josh Marshall, who is no fan of Trump, is urging caution because he thinks the projections reported by the Times seem out of line with current trends. Meanwhile, Kevin Drum, who is generally one of the more sober, fair-minded voices out there, is freaking out.

This administration is projecting that we are going to have around 100k deaths in June.  That is pretty crazy.

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3 minutes ago, Snotbubbles said:
4 hours ago, [scooter] said:

We dismissed the WHO test because we thought we could do better, then we spent a month developing a test that ended up not working. We banned private labs from developing their own tests. We showed no urgency whatsoever. All while the virus raged across the country. Then the administration had the gall to claim that things in the USA weren't that bad because our case numbers were so low. (They were low because we weren't testing people.)

Testing capacity is still below what we claimed it would be. The administration repeatedly claims that the tests are available, then backtracks and claims that they're "on order"! That alone proves that the response has not been "very good". It's been 3 months and we still don't have enough testing capability to open up the country.

That doesn't even account for the fact that we were literally welcoming infected people with open arms as they came streaming into the country, with no testing or quarantining. Because leadership assumed that the virus could only come from foreigners from China.

Pat yourself on the back all you want. It doesn't change the cold hard truth: we need to run millions of tests per day, and we're no where close to being ready to pull that off.

Testing doesn't prevent the spread of the virus.  You can get a test on Monday and not have it and then come back on Tuesday positive.  Testing only informs, it doesn't prevent.

Testing DOES prevent the spread -- because testing leads to contacting, which leads to quarantining.

Testing is the only thing that's going to end this pandemic.

The idea that testing is pointless because some people might not be positive yet is the worst kind of American Defeatism that I have ever seen.

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2 hours ago, dkp993 said:

Thanks. Yeah the testing is an interesting issue.  My neighbors are a married couple who are both emergency room docs.  They say they are having to test people 3 times due to the false results that the test keep registering.  So nuts.  

Saw this tweet but don’t know where to quickly verify it. Where are the numbers guys at?

US: 7.2 million tests

Russia + Germany + Italy: 9 million tests

Rest of world combined: 31.5 million tests

On a per capita basis, the US ranks 36th in tests, just below Belarus and slightly above Slovakia.

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2 minutes ago, Slapdash said:
45 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Interesting to see the reactions of two liberal bloggers whom I respect. Josh Marshall, who is no fan of Trump, is urging caution because he thinks the projections reported by the Times seem out of line with current trends. Meanwhile, Kevin Drum, who is generally one of the more sober, fair-minded voices out there, is freaking out.

This administration is projecting that we are going to have around 100k deaths in June.  That is pretty crazy.

Just yesterday, Trump claimed that the final death toll would end up at around 80-90K -- and he described that number as "successful".

Now we find out that his own internal memos knew that the number was a lie.

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