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22 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

That's a GREAT question!!! I LOVE THAT QUESTION...Because I like to flip it.  We want to shut things down.  For how long? What are the acceptable number of people that should be allowed to die before we open up again? Zero?  Are we trying to save every life?  And if not why not?  How many are we trying to save?  

I guess what you are not getting is we needed to follow he EU path, where they have contained the virus really well compared to us. Its our NATIONAL strategy and our division that has us here.

 

 

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Australia has had months of little to no community spread and even then it was confined to one state. By and large Australians are running around doing the right thing, sport was and is still hap

This is going to be a one off post because I don't want to get trolled or banned but if I were American, the context of Canada would be the biggest damning fact of how things have been handled in the

I am confident we are going to hit >750K deaths.  I think it might be a million.  I don't post a ton but I'm an ER doc in a big city. This is by far the worse I've seen since the pandemic star

1 minute ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

I guess what you are not getting is we needed to follow he EU path, where they have contained the virus really well compared to us. Its our NATIONAL strategy and our division that has us here.

 

 

Ok.  Thanks

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31 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Polls are 100% worthless buttttt I don't wanna do that fight again  LOL

I've noticed that data and context aren't what you are shooting for, that doesn't change the fact that a majority of this state are okay with how Whitmer has handled this.  It hasn't been flawless, but it's been better than many, and most of us understand that.

buttttt, keep up the good fight LOL

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3 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Im aware this is MY link and I'm sure there can be counters to this...but it supports my position so here it is

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/q2-gdp-us-economy-coronavirus-pandemic-consumer-171558880.html

I think a lot of people's point that that while it would have hurt for a few weeks for the economy, because people were so against doing a harder shutdown for whatever reason, we are still months into this, cases rising, and still not a great look for the economy.  Just think about all the industries that are still shutdown because we wouldn't/couldn't contain this - travel, movies, sports, etc, etc..   

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8 minutes ago, Osaurus said:

Caring has to be on the list imo.

Agreed. So are you saying we shut everything down until no one dies from this?  Because if you sat no, then you don't care about that person that died..Right?  See how dumb of an argument that is?

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3 minutes ago, Mene said:

I've noticed that data and context aren't what you are shooting for, that doesn't change the fact that a majority of this state are okay with how Whitmer has handled this.  It hasn't been flawless, but it's been better than many, and most of us understand that.

buttttt, keep up the good fight LOL

exactly, I mean what is he going to do with his "the governor is an idiot" sign?

 

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18 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

President Trump is a failure and needs to leave office asap so we can get the country back to normal. And by normal I mean back to American democracy. This is disgusting already.

No, Trump is doing everything I expected him to do when I voted for him.  He has been outstanding.

Laugh at this post if you agree with me 

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7 minutes ago, Mene said:

I've noticed that data and context aren't what you are shooting for, that doesn't change the fact that a majority of this state are okay with how Whitmer has handled this.  It hasn't been flawless, but it's been better than many, and most of us understand that.

buttttt, keep up the good fight LOL

I posted a 22% unemployment rate.  That's data isn't it?  

And your "fact" about the majority of the state is not a fact.  It's a poll

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39 minutes ago, The Commish said:

I try to remind myself as much as possible that comparing anything to what we saw in NYC is incredibly not wise.  If we take a second to think about that time, we realize that testing then was SIGNIFICANTLY worse than it is now.  Pause and think about that and you realize how bad it really was at that time.

Absolutely. Just to cite one example, Florida's current daily number of positives (~10K) is similar to what NY was seeing back in April, but I saw an estimate that if NY had been testing as widely as FL is right now, its number would have been like 30K.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Ham said:

Herman Cain died of coronavirus, after contracting it within a couple weeks of the Tulsa rally, where he attended without a mask. It’s within the incubation window. Whether he got it there or elsewhere, the intent to lead by example with soldiering on without a mask has proven deadly. Tragic, and unnecessary.

He also tweeted out an anti-mask message the day before the Tulsa rally, which has since been deleted.

No tweet from Trump yet? Gee I wonder why.

Facts and science don't care about our political affiliations people!!

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in the FL vs MI debate:

Florida shelter started 4/3.  Rt was 0.82 at the time.  Shelter ended 5/4, with Rt = 0.97.  in total, Florida had a Rt of 1.00 or less between 3/27 and 5/6 (40 days).  Rt peaked at 1.36 on June 1.  The day Florida opened up, they had 1368 infections (adjusted positive, per Rt.live's charts).

Michigan started shelter in place 3/24 and ended June 1.  Shelter started with Rt = 0.89 and ended with Rt at 1.13.  In total, Michigan had Rt of 1.00 or less between 3/20 and 5/26 (67 days).  Rt peaked at 1.19 on June 9.  The day Michigan opened up, they had 145 positive infections*.

In both cases, Rt began to rise before the shelter was ended - I'm not sure what to make of that.  

It seems to me that the difference is that the shelter was much more effective in Michigan than Florida - duration as well as effectiveness.  the Rt curve in Michigan is "U" shaped, whereas in Florida it was "V"- that is, there was really no sustained period with low transmission.  Because Florida failed to get the virus under control before opening up, and because Rt was a good bit higher after opening up, Fl's numbers quickly grew exponentially.

I'll let residents of the state speak to how effective the shelter was, and also what has transpired since.  But, looking at the data, it's clear to me that Michigan shelter in place did the job, whereas Florida managed both economic pain and ineffective results.

*when comparing raw number,s it's worth noting that Florida's population is roughly 3x Michigan.

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17 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Agreed. So are you saying we shut everything down until no one dies from this?  Because if you sat no, then you don't care about that person that died..Right?  See how dumb of an argument that is?

it is a dumb argument because literally no one is saying that.

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That's a real bummer about Herman Cain.

Basically, the guy sacrificed his life to stay in the club. I have no idea if he really believed that the virus was a hoax, or if he was just too afraid to contradict Trump. But either way, his loyalty cost him his life.

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1 hour ago, supermike80 said:

That's a GREAT question!!! I LOVE THAT QUESTION...Because I like to flip it.  We want to shut things down.  For how long? What are the acceptable number of people that should be allowed to die before we open up again? Zero?  Are we trying to save every life?  And if not why not?  How many are we trying to save?  

As many as possible. There are lots of countries right now who have almost no new cases or deaths because they've taken the necessary steps.  I refuse to believe that the US is somehow less capable than those countries.

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13 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

That's a real bummer about Herman Cain.

Basically, the guy sacrificed his life to stay in the club. I have no idea if he really believed that the virus was a hoax, or if he was just too afraid to contradict Trump. But either way, his loyalty cost him his life.

thoughts and prayers to gohmert.

 

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10 minutes ago, moleculo said:

I'll let residents of the state speak to how effective the shelter was, and also what has transpired since.  But, looking at the data, it's clear to me that Michigan shelter in place did the job, whereas Florida managed both economic pain and ineffective results.

My experience from the Tampa area is that Florida was slow to shut things down and quick to open back up.  The governor is resistant to statewide mandates, so we had to depend on local leaders to put shutdown mandates in place which caused an initial delay of action.  Despite the local mandates, many people weren't social distancing as you'd see kids playing basketball and stacked lines of customers at some stores.  Then, seemingly after two weeks of 'shut down', Desantis decides it's time to reopen.  There were a couple weeks where it seemed like the right decision.  Case counts remained low and people began to feel like they could return to normal life.  I, myself, began to think that maybe I had been a little too cautious.  Unfortunately, it was a false sense of security and cases began to spike.  Mask wearing was pretty low up until the local mandate earlier this month.  Now that people are being forced to wear them in stores is the reason we're seeing a downtrend in new cases.   

 

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8 minutes ago, apalmer said:

As many as possible. There are lots of countries right now who have almost no new cases or deaths because they've taken the necessary steps.  I refuse to believe that the US is somehow less capable than those countries.

"As many as possible" isn't an answer.  It's vague and worthless.

Plus, I don't believe much of what I hear from other countries

I remember vividly, and you can find it here, one of the most prevalent posters, you know the one who is wrong almost all the time, compared our numbers to latin america and wanted to point out how great they were compared to us. 
Well now that is no longer true sooooo

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43 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Hard to say. I don't really know what Florida is or isn't doing.

So to reset....your solution of "opening up" is basically what Florida has done.  They say "please wear a mask" but most areas (fortunately mine is the exception) have nothing but a "request" to do the right thing.  We just had our highest death total day (253) yet and cases are between 9-12K a day.  Businesses have been allowed to "open up" with in person dining now allowed but bars have been shut down once again given their significant contribution to the spread.  These businesses are running at 25-50% capacity.  That's the state level view.

Locally (I can't speak to other parts of the state) we had approx 300ish small/medium sized businesses close while everything was "shut down".  Since opening back up, another 500 or so have shut their doors again.  Some for good...many until it becomes better to be open vs be shut down.  Orange County, where Orlando is, has accumulated approx 5% of what they normally get in tourist revenue compared to this month last year.  Good news is, that's up from 1 and 3 percent the two months previously.  Many hotels have shut their doors until they can open at 75%+ capacity.  It's pretty clear that the public is not at all "confident" in our situation and is, for the most part, continuing to stay at home which makes those case and death numbers all the more alarming as people are NOT back to normal movement, yet things are escalating weekly here.  Not to mention all the businesses/restaurants operating on razor thin margins getting screwed because they can't get enough people in...on top of that, the business is open so unemployment goes out the window even if no one is showing up at those businesses.

This is generally what's happening here.

 

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29 minutes ago, moleculo said:

in the FL vs MI debate:

Florida shelter started 4/3.  Rt was 0.82 at the time.  Shelter ended 5/4, with Rt = 0.97.  in total, Florida had a Rt of 1.00 or less between 3/27 and 5/6 (40 days).  Rt peaked at 1.36 on June 1.  The day Florida opened up, they had 1368 infections (adjusted positive, per Rt.live's charts).

Michigan started shelter in place 3/24 and ended June 1.  Shelter started with Rt = 0.89 and ended with Rt at 1.13.  In total, Michigan had Rt of 1.00 or less between 3/20 and 5/26 (67 days).  Rt peaked at 1.19 on June 9.  The day Michigan opened up, they had 145 positive infections*.

In both cases, Rt began to rise before the shelter was ended - I'm not sure what to make of that.  

It seems to me that the difference is that the shelter was much more effective in Michigan than Florida - duration as well as effectiveness.  the Rt curve in Michigan is "U" shaped, whereas in Florida it was "V"- that is, there was really no sustained period with low transmission.  Because Florida failed to get the virus under control before opening up, and because Rt was a good bit higher after opening up, Fl's numbers quickly grew exponentially.

I'll let residents of the state speak to how effective the shelter was, and also what has transpired since.  But, looking at the data, it's clear to me that Michigan shelter in place did the job, whereas Florida managed both economic pain and ineffective results.

*when comparing raw number,s it's worth noting that Florida's population is roughly 3x Michigan.

Some potential explanations: Florida is hotter and has more enclosed air conditioned places. Florida has more tourists, now entirely domestic and mostly younger and care free. In South Florida, where rents are very high compared to income, there is a lot of cohabitation with family and friends. Possibly, more family and social gatherings due to large Hispanic population.

In Miami-Dade, I saw and still see almost 100% compliance with mask orders in all stores. But yet, Miami is an epicenter.

 

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19 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

"As many as possible" isn't an answer.  It's vague and worthless.

Plus, I don't believe much of what I hear from other countries

I remember vividly, and you can find it here, one of the most prevalent posters, you know the one who is wrong almost all the time, compared our numbers to latin america and wanted to point out how great they were compared to us. 
Well now that is no longer true sooooo

So polls are worthless.  You don't believe what you hear from other countries.  Honest question, what do you, in fact, trust or rely upon at this point?  

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32 minutes ago, apalmer said:

As many as possible. There are lots of countries right now who have almost no new cases or deaths because they've taken the necessary steps.  I refuse to believe that the US is somehow less capable than those countries.

I don't know why you're refusing it.  It's the most obvious thing ever outside of "water is wet".  Should it be that way?  Of course not, but there's no question that it is.  We are really selfish and it's showing.

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37 minutes ago, apalmer said:

As many as possible. There are lots of countries right now who have almost no new cases or deaths because they've taken the necessary steps.  I refuse to believe that the US is somehow less capable than those countries.

The US is certainly as capable as those countries. But we are less willing to do what it takes to actually take the steps, made obvious by the numbers.

1) Other countries that have almost no cases or deaths, how did they accomplish this?

2) Are we doing the same? What are the obstacles keeping us from accomplishing the same?

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15 minutes ago, The Commish said:

So to reset....your solution of "opening up" is basically what Florida has done.  They say "please wear a mask" but most areas (fortunately mine is the exception) have nothing but a "request" to do the right thing.  We just had our highest death total day (253) yet and cases are between 9-12K a day.  Businesses have been allowed to "open up" with in person dining now allowed but bars have been shut down once again given their significant contribution to the spread.  These businesses are running at 25-50% capacity.  That's the state level view.

Locally (I can't speak to other parts of the state) we had approx 300ish small/medium sized businesses close while everything was "shut down".  Since opening back up, another 500 or so have shut their doors again.  Some for good...many until it becomes better to be open vs be shut down.  Orange County, where Orlando is, has accumulated approx 5% of what they normally get in tourist revenue compared to this month last year.  Good news is, that's up from 1 and 3 percent the two months previously.  Many hotels have shut their doors until they can open at 75%+ capacity.  It's pretty clear that the public is not at all "confident" in our situation and is, for the most part, continuing to stay at home which makes those case and death numbers all the more alarming as people are NOT back to normal movement, yet things are escalating weekly here.  Not to mention all the businesses/restaurants operating on razor thin margins getting screwed because they can't get enough people in...on top of that, the business is open so unemployment goes out the window even if no one is showing up at those businesses.

This is generally what's happening here.

 

Okay.

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5 minutes ago, Green Balloons said:

supermike80 admitted several times, including today, he's just trolling. 

This should be pinned at the top of every page 

Be better than this

 

"

I openly admit I partake in a fair amount of trolling here at times, I mean it is REALLY easy to do so.

However not in this thread.  My thoughts are genuine.

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15 minutes ago, Captain Cranks said:

So polls are worthless.  You don't believe what you hear from other countries.  Honest question, what do you, in fact, trust or rely upon at this point?  

Oh now don't get your hair all frizzy.    I believe in lots of things...I just never believe in polls..And I mean not ever.  And it has been proven that when folks like to say things like "look how well the Latin American countries are doing compared to the USA in regards to covid" only to be shown how dumb of a statement that is-- and was at the time--they are just not really thinking much.   But pointing out those two items doesn't mean I don't trust EVERYTHING.  Take er easy big fella.

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8 minutes ago, Green Balloons said:

supermike80 admitted several times, including today, he's just trolling. 

This should be pinned at the top of every page 

Awe....I also said not in this thread.  But yeah, I troll at times.  🙂  Sorry if that hurts your feelings.

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19 minutes ago, Megla said:

Be better than this

 

"

I openly admit I partake in a fair amount of trolling here at times, I mean it is REALLY easy to do so.

However not in this thread.  My thoughts are genuine.

You take joy in purposely upsetting people. Last reply. 

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51 minutes ago, Captain Cranks said:

So polls are worthless.  You don't believe what you hear from other countries.  Honest question, what do you, in fact, trust or rely upon at this point?  

whatever agrees with what he’s already decided.

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38 minutes ago, Captain Cranks said:

Is this not confirmation that Megla and Supermike are the same person?

Nah.....One other thing I will never waiver on..aliases...never made one, dont want one.....thats way too much work for a message board

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1 hour ago, supermike80 said:

"As many as possible" isn't an answer.  It's vague and worthless.

...

Here's my answer: when deaths are roughly equivalent to the flu.  Influenza seems to be a pretty good threshhold - we have shut things down locally when it gets out of hand, and influenza and pneumonia) is a top 10 cause of death.  

The CDC states that there are between 24 and 62k deaths for influenza between October 1 and April 4 - 183 days.  let's take the upper bound of 62k and divide by days, and we get 338 deaths per day on average.

So - I'd say we are past this when our daily national death rate is consistently below 340 per day, or 0.1 per 100k population.  That's a rate of roughly 10 deaths per day for the state of Michigan.  Michigan has had less than 10 deaths per day (7 day moving average) since July 18, so I'd say they are well on their way.  At long as Michigan can keep Rt at or below 1.0, I'd say you guys are in good shape.  For Florida - they would need to be roughly 30 per day - no where close.

Honestly, I'd take another look at Whitmer vs DeSantis.

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Just now, moleculo said:

Here's my answer: when deaths are roughly equivalent to the flu.  Influenza seems to be a pretty good threshhold - we have shut things down locally when it gets out of hand, and influenza and pneumonia) is a top 10 cause of death.  

The CDC states that there are between 24 and 62k deaths for influenza between October 1 and April 4 - 183 days.  let's take the upper bound of 62k and divide by days, and we get 338 deaths per day on average.

So - I'd say we are past this when our daily national death rate is consistently below 340 per day, or 0.1 per 100k population.  That's a rate of roughly 10 deaths per day for the state of Michigan.  Michigan has had less than 10 deaths per day (7 day moving average) since July 18, so I'd say they are well on their way.  At long as Michigan can keep Rt at or below 1.0, I'd say you guys are in good shape.  For Florida - they would need to be roughly 30 per day - no where close.

Honestly, I'd take another look at Whitmer vs DeSantis.

Ugh.  Man.  I swear. I don't know if you guys sometimes don't read, or don't understand or what.  It's mind boggling to me.

THE ONLY MEASUREMENT IS NOT THE COVID DEATH RATE  (in my opinion of course)  So I dont need to take another look at Whitmer Vs DeSantis.  

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2 hours ago, supermike80 said:

Agreed. So are you saying we shut everything down until no one dies from this?  Because if you sat no, then you don't care about that person that died..Right?  See how dumb of an argument that is?

 

6 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Ugh.  Man.  I swear. I don't know if you guys sometimes don't read, or don't understand or what.  It's mind boggling to me.

THE ONLY MEASUREMENT IS NOT THE COVID DEATH RATE  (in my opinion of course)  So I dont need to take another look at Whitmer Vs DeSantis.  

:shrug: no need to yell.  You asked earlier if we shut everything down until no one dies.  Above is my opinion on when things should open up.  If you have another metric you would like to use, I'm all ears but I sincerely hope it isn't something along the lines of "unemployment is >10%" or something.

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1 minute ago, moleculo said:

 

:shrug: no need to yell.  You asked earlier if we shut everything down until no one dies.  Above is my opinion on when things should open up.  If you have another metric you would like to use, I'm all ears but I sincerely hope it isn't something along the lines of "unemployment is >10%" or something.

Well I could discuss how many people are saying they don't have enough money to eat due to not having employment because of the stay at home orders.  Is that important

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2 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

The US is certainly as capable as those countries. But we are less willing to do what it takes to actually take the steps, made obvious by the numbers.

1) Other countries that have almost no cases or deaths, how did they accomplish this?

2) Are we doing the same? What are the obstacles keeping us from accomplishing the same?

The answer to both these questions is "the makeup of the citizenry"  

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Just in case it hasn’t been discussed in here: the human impact of this virus isn’t just measured in deaths. It’s also measured in disabling conditions. Lung scarring. Heart and kidney damage. Neurological difficulties and deficits. 
 

Oh, and “post-covid syndrome.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/chronic-fatigue-syndrome-keys-understanding-post-covid-syndrome/

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Just now, Henry Ford said:

Just in case it hasn’t been discussed in here: the human impact of this virus isn’t just measured in deaths. It’s also measured in disabling conditions. Lung scarring. Heart and kidney damage. Neurological difficulties and deficits. 
 

Oh, and “post-covid syndrome.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/chronic-fatigue-syndrome-keys-understanding-post-covid-syndrome/

Read a brief blurb this AM on the probable impact to testis as well...haven't gone back to read the entire thing.  I've brought up long term affects probably 50 times in these threads.  I don't think a single one has been replied to.

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54 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Well I could discuss how many people are saying they don't have enough money to eat due to not having employment because of the stay at home orders.  Is that important

If only there was some form of national government that could step in and provide weekly money to those who lost their jobs because they have to stay home...maybe call it unemployment insurance or something like that.

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