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Government Response To The Coronavirus


James Daulton

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17 minutes ago, jobarules said:

People commit felonies to make $ every day

Sure, for themselves.  Not often they do it so a corporation where they aren't likely the owners or for a non-profit where they aren't on the board.  What's the financial or political incentive for the person actually doing the deed?

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1 minute ago, jobarules said:

NY has been complaining about not having enough vaccine supply for weeks now. Theyve even had to shut down some facilities.

Do you have a link for this?  I haven't been following the last week or two, but everything I've read about NY's handling of the vaccine has been a dumpster fire.  And everything I've read has been about how the state is botching it, not about not having enough vaccine.

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1 minute ago, John123 said:

Do you have a link for this?  I haven't been following the last week or two, but everything I've read about NY's handling of the vaccine has been a dumpster fire.  And everything I've read has been about how the state is botching it, not about not having enough vaccine.

Never mind.  Google it.  Good to see NY finally got past their state/city created issues.

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32 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

But the three week delay does more than simply endanger one group -- it literally kills people.  We are killing people because we're worried about the hypothetical possibility that some unknown group might benefit from a particular vaccine more than some other hypothetical group.

"It's not ethical to put people at risk without a really good reason" is an argument for hurrying up, not an argument for hair-splitting.

The option for no delay is to simply trust J&J that they did everything correctly, or at least with very minimal verification.  That's not how the FDA operates, and eliminating those quality check for a 3rd vaccine is risky.  I'm really not justifying it, other than saying that the guard rails and protocols are likely in place for a reason.

Now on to the "no sub-group analysis".  Let's take this to the extreme: What if the vaccine wasn't effective at all for those under 30, but very effective for those over 60 but that wasn't known because no sub-group analyses were performed.  So death rates for those over 60 drop considerably as the vax gets adopted... but death rates for those under 30 begin to climb.  It might be too late to detect that problem and issue a decree that this particular vax shouldn't be given to those under 30.  Lots of people under 30 would be dead because of no sub-group analyses.  Was it ethical to give the vax to people where the efficacy wasn't known?  I think that's her point about "You cannot endanger one group to benefit another without a really good reason."  Without the analyses, we don't have that reason, and the deep, deep analyses is what take so long.

My regulatory affairs PhD friend chimed in to say that whole teams of data scientists and biologists are poring over the data.  The FDA has pulled in multiple teams to work on the vax approvals, way more than any other thing she's seen.  She doesn't think that more manpower would help in this case, as adding more would simply make the coordination of all the specialists more difficult and more prone to error.

I told her I wasn't convinced on that front.

 

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11 minutes ago, John123 said:

Do you have a link for this?  I haven't been following the last week or two, but everything I've read about NY's handling of the vaccine has been a dumpster fire.  And everything I've read has been about how the state is botching it, not about not having enough vaccine.

Found this headline from 3 days ago:

 

Cuomo: New York expecting a 5% increase in weekly vaccine supply, but needs more

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13 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Sure, for themselves.  Not often they do it so a corporation where they aren't likely the owners or for a non-profit where they aren't on the board.  What's the financial or political incentive for the person actually doing the deed?

Hospitals are for profit and you are insane if you think the profitability of a hospital doesnt impact the board/CEO/Chief Medical Officer, etc well paid roles.

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NY State has received 2,065,595 first doses and has administered 1,860,196 of those doses, a 90% clip.

The state distribution system is capable of administering 100K doses per day, but hasn't received close to that number of supply. They have been receiving between 250K and 320K per week for the past 4 weeks.

https://covid19vaccine.health.ny.gov/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

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1 hour ago, jobarules said:

Hospitals are for profit and you are insane if you think the profitability of a hospital doesnt impact the board/CEO/Chief Medical Officer, etc well paid roles.

That's not what I said.  The people inputting the data and codes for COVID aren't those people you listed.  Unless these big muckety-mucks explicitly gave instructions to do so (and I haven't heard about that happening), the people doing the actual work have no incentive to commit a felony.

Edited by The Z Machine
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2 hours ago, jobarules said:

"Why would hospitals lie to claim every death is COVID?"

If the governor lies, why cant hospitals?

This is a non-sequitir -- anyone can conceivably lie at any time. If Governor Cuomo never lied, that would have no bearing on anyone else's probability of lying.

 

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13 hours ago, FairWarning said:

Maybe someone from the left can explain the Cuomo deal.  If “reputable” news sources like CNN sweep it under the rug, then what?

CNN can hate the right and report about Cuomos story also.  It’s not either-or.  

It was one of the top stories on CNN.com tonight per my wife

Edited by Alex P Keaton
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9 hours ago, The Z Machine said:

The option for no delay is to simply trust J&J that they did everything correctly, or at least with very minimal verification.  That's not how the FDA operates, and eliminating those quality check for a 3rd vaccine is risky.  I'm really not justifying it, other than saying that the guard rails and protocols are likely in place for a reason.

Now on to the "no sub-group analysis".  Let's take this to the extreme: What if the vaccine wasn't effective at all for those under 30, but very effective for those over 60 but that wasn't known because no sub-group analyses were performed.  So death rates for those over 60 drop considerably as the vax gets adopted... but death rates for those under 30 begin to climb.  It might be too late to detect that problem and issue a decree that this particular vax shouldn't be given to those under 30.  Lots of people under 30 would be dead because of no sub-group analyses.  Was it ethical to give the vax to people where the efficacy wasn't known?  I think that's her point about "You cannot endanger one group to benefit another without a really good reason."  Without the analyses, we don't have that reason, and the deep, deep analyses is what take so long.

My regulatory affairs PhD friend chimed in to say that whole teams of data scientists and biologists are poring over the data.  The FDA has pulled in multiple teams to work on the vax approvals, way more than any other thing she's seen.  She doesn't think that more manpower would help in this case, as adding more would simply make the coordination of all the specialists more difficult and more prone to error.

I told her I wasn't convinced on that front.

 

Actually, the last part makes perfect sense.  It’s the same way that an IT project with 500 people is far less efficient than an IT project with 10 really top notch people.  At some point you get diseconomies of scale....most of your energy goes into coordination and communication.....versus doing actual work.

(which reminds me of my buffoonish, bureaucratic employer)

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On 2/12/2021 at 11:01 PM, Alex P Keaton said:

It was one of the top stories on CNN.com tonight per my wife

It wasn't at first.  CNN wasn't even on the first two pages of search results when I searched it.  Doesn't matter anymore.

Watching Sky News from the UK just now, they are reporting 28% of the adult population has been given the first dose in the UK.  

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1 minute ago, The General said:

Two million shots today, new cases dropping fast. Optimism abounds.

Odd...someone proclaimed Biden was bungling the vaccine distribution the other day.  When questioned...crickets.

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54 minutes ago, The General said:

Two million shots today, new cases dropping fast. Optimism abounds.

If sustainable - and it should be - that’s 30 million in two weeks - in 6 weeks we should be over half the population (taking out the under age the vaccine is not recommended)

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So the total pop is ~330 million with ~75 million under 18 = so vaccinated goal of ~255 million.  


~40 million already vaccinate = goal of 215 million more

less the Q crowd who don’t believe in the disease and we are talking ~12 weeks at today’s pace

Visiting Bahamas in june

 

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43 minutes ago, The Dude said:

So the total pop is ~330 million with ~75 million under 18 = so vaccinated goal of ~255 million.  


~40 million already vaccinate = goal of 215 million more

less the Q crowd who don’t believe in the disease and we are talking ~12 weeks at today’s pace

Visiting Bahamas in june

 

Have we suddenly become a single-dose solution?   We don’t have 40m people fully vaccinated yet.  We’ve given 50m doses, total, so far.

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On 2/12/2021 at 12:12 PM, The Z Machine said:

If Cuomo lied and covered up things that he knew were incorrect for political reasons, he should be held to account.  Whether that's through criminal, civil, or political actions is TBD. 

why "for political reasons" ?

how about lying and covering up = hold accountable ?

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From what I understand ... even one dose of either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines will give reasonably potent protection against COVID. Certainly good protection against the risk of severe illness. I think a lot of people think, though, that one dose of those vaccines does nothing at all -- that's not the case.

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Just now, Doug B said:

From what I understand ... even one dose of either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines will give reasonably potent protection against COVID. Certainly good protection against the risk of severe illness. I think a lot of people think, though, that one dose of those vaccines does nothing at all -- that's not the case.

I think it makes sense to keep essential workers, over-65 people, and high-risk people on the two-dose program but the general population makes more sense to get everybody one shot before anybody gets the second.

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33 minutes ago, Doug B said:

From what I understand ... even one dose of either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines will give reasonably potent protection against COVID. Certainly good protection against the risk of severe illness. I think a lot of people think, though, that one dose of those vaccines does nothing at all -- that's not the case.

We don't have the data to know what would be the outcome of giving one dose. There is certainly evidence of some protection, but it may not last. We don’t know what changing the timing of a second shot would do either. At this point it doesn't make much sense to try. Given the percentage of people who are open to getting vaccinated right now, we are only a couple of months from opening up vaccinations to all adults. 

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1 hour ago, parasaurolophus said:
1 hour ago, The Dude said:

No, not at all.  One dose is going to make it a lot safer in the US

Absolutely. Especially with the Moderna vaccine.

Could Google it ... but Moderna's the one that tested at ~70% for one dose, and ~95% for two doses, correct?

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

Could Google it ... but Moderna's the one that tested at ~70% for one dose, and ~95% for two doses, correct?

Moderna is 92% effective after two weeks of one dose (smaller data set than main study). 

The lower number counts the two weeks immediately following vaccination. 

I have posted this several times and of course it is always met with people telling me I don't know what I am talking about. But if you really want to read about it look at page 28 of the Moderna FDA briefing docs for the relevant info.

If you count the first two weeks after first vaccination for your data sets, it isnt really fair to compare the one dose efficacy to the 2 dose efficacy. The 95% number is based on 6 weeks after first dose. So it is a subset that has already eliminated the infections that are being counted against the single dose group. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, kodycutter said:

Does Cuomo own up to his mistake and cover-up?    Does this chapter get added into his book?    For a guy whose pressers I looked forward to, this turn of events is disgusting.

After hearing Cuomo today he should resign ASAP.    Totally tone deaf, blaming everyone except himself.  Even blaming the eldery. Of course he is way to arrogant to do the right thing and step down so he should be forced to.  NY deserves better.

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I've read maybe two articles and it's immediately clear. Cuomo hid deaths from the public and underreported their number. His own AG turned him in. This is a huge story. It should be the lead almost everywhere. Forget him. The calls for impeachment don't even sound politically motivated, as he claims. This sounds like a man nobody can trust. This should be his last gasp of air in public office.

Disgusting.

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

I've read maybe two articles and it's immediately clear. Cuomo hid deaths from the public and underreported their number. His own AG turned him in. This is a huge story. It should be the lead almost everywhere. Forget him. The calls for impeachment don't even sound politically motivated, as he claims. This sounds like a man nobody can trust. This should be his last gasp of air in public office.

Disgusting.

Haven't read today...if he hid overall deaths...not the classification of where they came from...yes...even worse.

Even as it is hiding the classification of in nursing home or not...and he should resign.

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49 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

These new CDC strategies for reopening schools are crap. Obviously influenced by the Biden team. So much for the follow the science pitch.

It would appear they are all about science except, except when unions(Dem voters) are involved.  Looks like science now takes a back seat.  go figure.

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31 minutes ago, dawgtrails said:

Seems odd to complain that schools need to open, then when we finally get around to vaccinating the teachers and staff, you then complain that they are changing course because they are pushing for opening.

One might suggest it disingenuous

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