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Government Response To The Coronavirus


James Daulton

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Here's the timeline for NY:

Feb-early March- COVID runs rampant unchecked

Mid-March- Lockdowns start

Mid-April- Cases spike

April 17th- Mask mandates

April-May- Cases decline

June- Things start slowly opening up based on levels.

Summer- Cases plummet

September- Schools open hybrid, everything is open

October- Cases start increasing

November-January- cases skyrocket due to holiday gatherings

January- Vaccine rollout starts

February- Cases start plummeting, things start opening up again

March- Case declines plateau

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I've noticed this thing ...........where maybe ya'll can define it for me

 

I've noticed it with the global warming thing and with covid now as well. Actions are taken and it doesn't matter the results ..... people will claim that it'd have been so much worse had we not acted at all

Its true.

People have to believe what they support works. To admit it doesn't - .... I don't think a lot of human minds can accept that they're wrong much less accepting that their actions (or actions they supported) failed horribly

its a fascinating thing to watch

 

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1 minute ago, jobarules said:

Not really. My wife got it at Thanksgiving dinner where we gathered indoors without masks. 

your one experience doesn't fit everyone everywhere though

its a guess and that's ok .... just like my views/ideas are guesses as well

a virus spikes .... it hits a population hard to start, like nursing homes and elderly and then it ebbs and flows as it passes through populations ......... and maybe not much we do stops it

maybe that's it ?

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24 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Yeah because things opened up in the summer in NY. This is not rocket science dude. Lockdowns and masks clearly help stop the spread.

just ridiculous thst he  keeps posting this crap.  

also not rocket science that mandate <> compliance.    

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1 hour ago, parasaurolophus said:

You aren't making the comparison you think you are. Japan did less than we did.

They shut down less than we did. They tested less than we did. They don't even have a center for disease control.

 

good call.  Reading a bit, their government did less than ours did, but their population kind of did their own "lockdown" - they voluntarily restricted themselves.  Japan is probably more of an outlier.

Is there a better example of a country with more restrictive lockdowns than US, a relatively high population, and trustworthy data?

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1 hour ago, Stealthycat said:

I've noticed this thing ...........where maybe ya'll can define it for me

 

I've noticed it with the global warming thing and with covid now as well. Actions are taken and it doesn't matter the results ..... people will claim that it'd have been so much worse had we not acted at all

Its true.

People have to believe what they support works. To admit it doesn't - .... I don't think a lot of human minds can accept that they're wrong much less accepting that their actions (or actions they supported) failed horribly

its a fascinating thing to watch

 

How do you think people get an infectious disease?

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1 hour ago, jobarules said:

Yeah because things opened up in the summer in NY. This is not rocket science dude. Lockdowns and masks clearly help stop the spread.

It’s so bizarre to say that lockdowns aren’t effective, like this has to be a bored fishing trip.

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Jobarules is correct with the timeline and the reasoning in NY. I've also been watching NYC and Long Island very closely during this and it completely checks out.

In fact, I need to check tomorrow's numbers to be certain about the trend, but there is possibly cause for concern in the Mid-Hudson, NYC and Long Island regions after weeks of declines. I'll post an update tomorrow, hopefully this isn't the case. 

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41 minutes ago, moleculo said:

good call.  Reading a bit, their government did less than ours did, but their population kind of did their own "lockdown" - they voluntarily restricted themselves.  Japan is probably more of an outlier.

Is there a better example of a country with more restrictive lockdowns than US, a relatively high population, and trustworthy data?

I have worked for a Japanese company for 20 years. Their culture is so much different than our in ways that make them much better suited for this type of thing than we are.

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42 minutes ago, moleculo said:

Is there a better example of a country with more restrictive lockdowns than US, a relatively high population, and trustworthy data?

I would like to know more about COVID response in Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. India has per-capita rates (both cases and deaths) less than 10% of the U.S., and the first three countries I mentioned are doing even better than India. However, I don't know their situations very well.

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3 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Jobarules is correct with the timeline and the reasoning in NY. I've also been watching NYC and Long Island very closely during this and it completely checks out.

In fact, I need to check tomorrow's numbers to be certain about the trend, but there is possibly cause for concern in the Mid-Hudson, NYC and Long Island regions after weeks of declines. I'll post an update tomorrow, hopefully this isn't the case. 

These numbers should really just continue to fall off exponentially. People already infected, vaccines flying out the doors. Unless these variants become a problem or other unforeseen issue the end of summer has to be looking good. Right?  

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19 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Jobarules is correct with the timeline and the reasoning in NY. I've also been watching NYC and Long Island very closely during this and it completely checks out.

In fact, I need to check tomorrow's numbers to be certain about the trend, but there is possibly cause for concern in the Mid-Hudson, NYC and Long Island regions after weeks of declines. I'll post an update tomorrow, hopefully this isn't the case. 

NY has been basically flat for awhile.  There hasn't been weeks of declines. Problem is it flat right now is pretty high and we are opening up in door dinning, etc. in NYC.  I have my concerns that it is too early for it but with Cuomo a mess he can't lead anything.  

 

ETA link to chart showing NY state numbers - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html

Edited by Redwes25
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4 minutes ago, The General said:

These numbers should really just continue to fall off exponentially. People already infected, vaccines flying out the doors. Unless these variants become a problem or other unforeseen issue the end of summer has to be looking good. Right?  

Just playing it out, with the current vaccination rate, we should be in a good spot in ~60 days or so. However, instead of seeing the exponential fall off continue, there may be certain areas that struggle in the meantime. Probably not back to mid-January levels, but an unexpected rise in positivity rates and hospitalizations that are counter-intuitive is still possible, and it seems like in NYC and its surrounding suburbs that may be happening now. Tomorrow's data will help confirm if this is a trend. 

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19 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I would like to know more about COVID response in Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. India has per-capita rates (both cases and deaths) less than 10% of the U.S., and the first three countries I mentioned are doing even better than India. However, I don't know their situations very well.

I dont know about the first three you mentioned, but I know India data cant be trusted.

A covid death is only counted there as a covid death if certified. A huge % of deaths are never certified. 

ETA:less than 1 in 5 deaths certified

Edited by parasaurolophus
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2 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

NY has been basically flat for awhile.  There hasn't been weeks of declines. Problem is it flat right now is pretty high and we are opening up in door dinning, etc. in NYC.  I have my concerns that it is too early for it but with Cuomo a mess he can't lead anything.  

Hospitalizations in NY have declined for 8 straight weeks from 9,273 in mid-January to 4,657 today.

NY Hospitalizations

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2 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Hospitilazations always trail cases.  That will level out and be flat for awhile like cases have been.  

True. My concern is the positivity rate in Kings, Queens, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Richmond and the other boroughs is actually increasing now. Yesterday's positivity rate is up over the 7-day moving average which is up over the 14-day moving average.

NY Positivity Rate by County

But just a few days does not make a trend. I'll be checking tomorrow as always and hopefully we can stay flat as we ramp up these vaccines.

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4 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

True. My concern is the positivity rate in Kings, Queens, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Richmond and the other boroughs is actually increasing now. Yesterday's positivity rate is up over the 7-day moving average which is up over the 14-day moving average.

NY Positivity Rate by County

But just a few days does not make a trend. I'll be checking tomorrow as always and hopefully we can stay flat as we ramp up these vaccines.

Not a surprise at all.  In-door dining in NYC opened up a month ago.  Basically anywhere that has happened you see an increase in cases like a month later.  Test postivity rate is the first evidence of it.  

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Is NY basing how they allow stuff to open on data like: X Amount of cases and X amount of hospitalizations over the course of a time period like 2 weeks allows loosen restrictions? If those X numbers aren’t low enough they keep things are current level of open, if they raise they would tighten back up.

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1 minute ago, The General said:

Is NY basing how they allow stuff to open on data like: X Amount of cases and X amount of hospitalizations over the course of a time period like 2 weeks allows loosen restrictions? If those X numbers aren’t low enough they keep things are current level of open, if they raise they would tighten back up.

NY is a mess with a governor hiding in a bunker trying to keep his job.  He needs to resign so we can move on.  

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10 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:
12 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Hospitalizations in NY have declined for 8 straight weeks from 9,273 in mid-January to 4,657 today.

NY Hospitalizations

Hospitilazations always trail cases.  That will level out and be flat for awhile like cases have been

This makes logical sense and is probably true on an actual level that the reported data simply doesnt show, but from a reported data perspective there isn't actually much rhyme or reason to how this works. 

For example the peaks for WI hospitalizations and cases are the exact same day. They show a downward trend and then actually have a blip back up, on the same days again.

Nevada seems like it shows this for a while and then after the new year there is a spike in cases that never gets reflected in hospitalizatons. We aren't talking a 1-2 day spike either like 10 days. 

California has an inexplicable pattern too when you look at it, but if you really dig deep, at least some of it is explained by some data clean up. 

Florida is a good example of the hospitalizations trailing cases, but if you look at the interval it is actually a week delay, not the standard two weeks delay I think most people have come to expect.

Also important to note that hospitalizations should start to follow a very different curve than cases since the higher risk groups are getting vaccinated first.  

 

 

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44 minutes ago, The General said:

These numbers should really just continue to fall off exponentially. People already infected, vaccines flying out the doors. Unless these variants become a problem or other unforeseen issue the end of summer has to be looking good. Right?  

My guess is that we might see a slight spike within the next couple months but nothing like we saw with previous spikes. Big case numbers but minimal disruption in hospitalizations and deaths. That will be the last disruption. Cases will still happen but with minimal impact.

I may be overly optimistic and the variants could crush all of it but I’m guessing not. I think masks will be off by mid-summer and I’m getting vacation days setup to visit family. 

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23 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

This makes logical sense and is probably true on an actual level that the reported data simply doesnt show, but from a reported data perspective there isn't actually much rhyme or reason to how this works. 

For example the peaks for WI hospitalizations and cases are the exact same day. They show a downward trend and then actually have a blip back up, on the same days again.

Nevada seems like it shows this for a while and then after the new year there is a spike in cases that never gets reflected in hospitalizatons. We aren't talking a 1-2 day spike either like 10 days. 

California has an inexplicable pattern too when you look at it, but if you really dig deep, at least some of it is explained by some data clean up. 

Florida is a good example of the hospitalizations trailing cases, but if you look at the interval it is actually a week delay, not the standard two weeks delay I think most people have come to expect.

Also important to note that hospitalizations should start to follow a very different curve than cases since the higher risk groups are getting vaccinated first.  

 

 

Interesting - I have not focussed that closely to data outside of NY (given that is where I live) and that rule has followed (other than initially where case data was complete junk and completely under reported.  

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19 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Interesting - I have not focussed that closely to data outside of NY (given that is where I live) and that rule has followed (other than initially where case data was complete junk and completely under reported.  

Case data has been real flawed all along in lots of places. Hospitalizations are the best metric and the lag is not very large. 

One of the theories I have for why the gap is tighter than we would think is because symptomatic cases are still a huge driver for testing. So an older symptomatic person gets sick. Their contacts go get tested. Their contacts might test positive, but are likely younger and dont get hospitalized. Even if the spouse tests positive, the positive test probably isnt too far ahead of the hospitalization. 

I am not saying the older people are the primary spreaders, just pointing out the order of operations re:getting tested.

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16 hours ago, Doug B said:

I would like to know more about COVID response in Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. India has per-capita rates (both cases and deaths) less than 10% of the U.S., and the first three countries I mentioned are doing even better than India. However, I don't know their situations very well.

OH MY GOD,...Seriously. Bangladesh?   India?   

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On 3/15/2021 at 5:43 AM, Doug B said:

It's OK and expected for information and guidance to change frequently in the early going -- which, in a sense, we're still in with COVID-19. Why did people think best-evidence guidance from, say, March 2020 needed to be the absolute correct final word on the matter, and any subsequent changes means that "they're all full of bull all the time, changing guidance like that!" That's what's supposed to happen in response to a novel health threat.

That’s the way science works, by design. Too bad so many people misunderstand this concept and favor unsubstantiated dogma from our leaders.

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5 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Interesting that on this board there is almost no credit given to the former President on his vaccination decisions.

The EU is starting to struggle mightily, while operation warp speed is in place here.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/02/america-vaccination-speed-europe-better/618094/

Trump urged all his followers to get the great vaccine. Not a peep here.

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1 minute ago, supermike80 said:

Interesting that on this board there is almost no credit given to the former President on his vaccination decisions.

The EU is starting to struggle mightily, while operation warp speed is in place here.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/02/america-vaccination-speed-europe-better/618094/

He has been given credit for Warp Speed.  It was a big part of developing the vaccine...along with great motivation and doctors all over the world working on a solution.

What else do you want?  

His rollout was slow and unorganized as well...but the government got it up and going a little better each day.  Including after Biden took over.  But reading that article...it even states its not as much a praise of the US...but bad in how the EU decided against letting each country procure their own thinking as a block they could match the purchase power of the US.  Its not that we were great as much as their commission to purchase sucked.

Quote

But the EU opted to handle negotiations through its executive branch, the European Commission. And unfortunately for Europeans, the commission wasn’t very good at its assigned task.

Trump did well in signing on to that and letting the officials for that do their jobs without him getting in the way.  That is good.

Would have been nice had he done that from the start with other things COVID.

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Just now, jobarules said:

Trump urged all his followers to get the great vaccine. Not a peep here.

You want praise from people because he finally listened to people around him telling him to urge his followers to get it?  Really...we are reaching that low where that late response deserves praise?

Did the Trump supporters praise Biden and Harris and others who have been on a campaign pushing people to get the vaccine (some actually called it scare tactics).

 

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

So are we supposed to move on from Trump or not around here? 

For sure kudos if he said that.  

I dunno. People here complaining multiple times that he didn't do an announcement to get the vaccine even though he has done so at CPAC and again last night. 

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17 hours ago, The General said:

How do you think people get an infectious disease?

I see what you're getting at - we believe diseases are spread more often than not through contact with people who are infectious

Stop that contact and you've stopped the spread. not wearing dirty home made masks - 100% isolation .... that is effective

Well that's what was attempted - and we went from 45,000 dead to 530,000 and 20 more million infected. If the argument is that it was never about saving more lives it was delaying the deaths and infections .... that actually is a reasonable argument I think.

Maybe those 500,000 attributed deaths would have happened pretty much anyway, shutdown or not, masks or not. Maybe it wouldn't have been much worse doing nothing. We can guess and that's all we're doing.

I know, pro-mask and pro-shutdown people have to believe what they supported mattered. I get that. 

 

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4 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

You want praise from people because he finally listened to people around him telling him to urge his followers to get it?  Really...we are reaching that low where that late response deserves praise?

Did the Trump supporters praise Biden and Harris and others who have been on a campaign pushing people to get the vaccine (some actually called it scare tactics).

 

HE was telling us all 2020 about the great vaccine. You chose to ignore.

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

So are we supposed to move on from Trump or not around here? 

For sure kudos if he said that.  

As far as I’m aware he said it one time, in the middle of a lengthy speech at CPAC, after having concealed the fact that he actually received the vaccine for two months.  And after years of telling everyone not to trust the media or experts that are now urging vaccinations.  In total, not terribly praiseworthy.

ETA:  I guess he said it again yesterday, that’s a positive step.  How about going around the country doing MAGA mass vaccination rallies?  That seems like it would actually be praiseworthy.

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I will not credit Trump with development of the vaccine.  Credit goes to the scientists, doctors, etc who did the grunt work.  (I am sensitive to this as someone who is in product development but sees marketing / management take credit for the hard work I put in).

I will credit Trump for the vaccine rollout.  While it has not been perfect, it has been better than expected.  

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5 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

Trump did well in signing on to that and letting the officials for that do their jobs without him getting in the way.  That is good.

Would have been nice had he done that from the start with other things COVID.

Yes Trump deserves credit for operation warpspeed.  He obviously was aware of how devastating and dire the situation was and I give him kudos for that.

But what is inexplicable is how he continually downplayed the virus, the need for testing, wearing masks, social distancing, etc. 

Had he approached things differently he would still be POTUS.

 

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16 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Hospitalizations in NY have declined for 8 straight weeks from 9,273 in mid-January to 4,657 today.

NY Hospitalizations

starting early Nov did people in NY stop wearing masks, washing hands and social distancing ?

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4 minutes ago, jobarules said:

HE was telling us all 2020 about the great vaccine. You chose to ignore.

You couldn't get a vaccine until December 2020 and at that point he was holed up in the Oval Office, too butt hurt over his loss in the election to care about the pandemic.  He said virtually nothing about anything after the election except how rigged it was.

 

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5 minutes ago, moleculo said:

I will not credit Trump with development of the vaccine.  Credit goes to the scientists, doctors, etc who did the grunt work.  (I am sensitive to this as someone who is in product development but sees marketing / management take credit for the hard work I put in).

I will credit Trump for the vaccine rollout.  While it has not been perfect, it has been better than expected.  

Yeah Operation Warp Speed helped those scientists and doctors do that grunt work 

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9 minutes ago, jobarules said:

HE was telling us all 2020 about the great vaccine. You chose to ignore.

Not quite how it all went.  Also..if he thought it was so great...why, when others were getting it in public, did he do so in secret?

 

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