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Government Response To The Coronavirus


James Daulton

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4 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

starting early Nov did people in NY stop wearing masks, washing hands and social distancing ?

Yes. Specifically they stopped wearing masks at indoor gatherings for Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas just as the weather started to get colder. More indoor gatherings with multiple households and fewer masks led to the surge. After New Year's the gatherings decreased and so did the cases and hospitalizations. Roughly speaking.

One item here, while there's nothing wrong with hand washing, frankly that's not doing a tremendous amount to stop the spread of an airborne virus. It does help a person not put germs in their nose and mouth if they do have germs on their hands.

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5 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Yes. Specifically they stopped wearing masks at indoor gatherings for Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas just as the weather started to get colder. More indoor gatherings with multiple households and fewer masks led to the surge. After New Year's the gatherings decreased and so did the cases and hospitalizations. Roughly speaking.

One item here, while there's nothing wrong with hand washing, frankly that's not doing a tremendous amount to stop the spread of an airborne virus. It does help a person not put germs in their nose and mouth if they do have germs on their hands.

And much of the things we have been doing for COVID...have helped with the flu.  That seems to be a consensus from actual doctors.

 

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6 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

And much of the things we have been doing for COVID...have helped with the flu.  That seems to be a consensus from actual doctors.

 

No question we've absolutely squashed the flu with these NPI measures. Also goes to show how insidious Covid-19 is in terms of being contagious. 

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26 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Yes. Specifically they stopped wearing masks at indoor gatherings for Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas just as the weather started to get colder. More indoor gatherings with multiple households and fewer masks led to the surge. After New Year's the gatherings decreased and so did the cases and hospitalizations. Roughly speaking.

One item here, while there's nothing wrong with hand washing, frankly that's not doing a tremendous amount to stop the spread of an airborne virus. It does help a person not put germs in their nose and mouth if they do have germs on their hands.

link to that or is it just a guess ?

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1 hour ago, Stealthycat said:

I see what you're getting at - we believe diseases are spread more often than not through contact with people who are infectious

Stop that contact and you've stopped the spread. not wearing dirty home made masks - 100% isolation .... that is effective

Well that's what was attempted - and we went from 45,000 dead to 530,000 and 20 more million infected. If the argument is that it was never about saving more lives it was delaying the deaths and infections .... that actually is a reasonable argument I think.

Maybe those 500,000 attributed deaths would have happened pretty much anyway, shutdown or not, masks or not. Maybe it wouldn't have been much worse doing nothing. We can guess and that's all we're doing.

I know, pro-mask and pro-shutdown people have to believe what they supported mattered. I get that. 

 

Seems like you are beginning to grasp the concept.

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1 hour ago, jobarules said:

HE was telling us all 2020 about the great vaccine. You chose to ignore.

I’ll give him credit for the pushing of the development of the vaccine. It is a great accomplishment. I also appreciate that he came out and told everyone to get the shot.

Does that satisfy your need for him to get a participation trophy?

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1 hour ago, Stealthycat said:

link to that or is it just a guess ?

 

21 hours ago, jobarules said:

Here's the timeline for NY:

Feb-early March- COVID runs rampant unchecked

Mid-March- Lockdowns start

Mid-April- Cases spike

April 17th- Mask mandates

April-May- Cases decline

June- Things start slowly opening up based on levels.

Summer- Cases plummet

September- Schools open hybrid, everything is open

October- Cases start increasing

November-January- cases skyrocket due to holiday gatherings

January- Vaccine rollout starts

February- Cases start plummeting, things start opening up again

March- Case declines plateau

 

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47 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

 

 

just guessing then - and I understand that

 

because there are other very valid reasons why covid dulled then spiked again - warm weather, it had stormed through the elderly population already, etc etc

 

people want to believe that the mandates and the masks etc mattered - if it was proven they didn't ............ man that'd be quite a blow wouldn't it ? 

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3 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

people want to believe that the mandates and the masks etc mattered - if it was proven they didn't ............ man that'd be quite a blow wouldn't it ? 

Are you going to try and offer some proof? Because if not, GTFO with these conspiracies

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19 hours ago, Redwes25 said:

Interesting - I have not focussed that closely to data outside of NY (given that is where I live) and that rule has followed (other than initially where case data was complete junk and completely under reported.  

People are trying to intellectualize the numbers too much. We know some factors which promote spread and morbidity/mortality, but not all of them, nor interactions between variables. Consequently, no single model is going to explain the rate of infections/hospitalizations/deaths with complete accuracy.

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7 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

just guessing then - and I understand that

 

because there are other very valid reasons why covid dulled then spiked again - warm weather, it had stormed through the elderly population already, etc etc

 

people want to believe that the mandates and the masks etc mattered - if it was proven they didn't ............ man that'd be quite a blow wouldn't it ? 

 

1 minute ago, Terminalxylem said:

People are trying to intellectualize the numbers too much. We know some factors which promote spread and morbidity/mortality, but not all of them, nor interactions between variables. Consequently, no single model is going to explain the rate of infections/hospitalizations/deaths with complete accuracy.

Sometimes you live through something, experience it, and know what happened. There's not a "link" for it. 

Covid is a regional phenomenon. In many cases there are multiple regions within states. Literally upstate NY has a completely different curve than NYC and the suburbs. The locals here know what happened here and when, we were paying attention. Multiple locals have commented on it. Maybe you're familiar with how your region played out. It probably was different. 

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28 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

just guessing then - and I understand that

 

because there are other very valid reasons why covid dulled then spiked again - warm weather, it had stormed through the elderly population already, etc etc

 

people want to believe that the mandates and the masks etc mattered - if it was proven they didn't ............ man that'd be quite a blow wouldn't it ? 

So it was the warm weather that stopped it? Explain the spikes in the summer in the southern states. And if it stormed through the elderly, how do you explain the surge during the holiday season? You need to suspend reality to reach those conclusions while ignoring clear spikes after holiday gatherings and decreases after lockdowns and mask mandates.

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39 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

 

Sometimes you live through something, experience it, and know what happened. There's not a "link" for it. 

Covid is a regional phenomenon. In many cases there are multiple regions within states. Literally upstate NY has a completely different curve than NYC and the suburbs. The locals here know what happened here and when, we were paying attention. Multiple locals have commented on it. Maybe you're familiar with how your region played out. It probably was different. 

That's a bad faith link request for sure. I don't think it is as simple as you say(we just know), but I definitely know there is a difference between having a discussion with you about the data and asking you for a link to prove you wrong. 

 

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4 hours ago, jobarules said:

:lmao: never enough for some people

I give Trump a lot of credit for Operation Warp speed (2 of the 3 approved vaccines were through it and we wouldn't be in such a good place without it on the vaccine front and imagine looking a lot like Europe).  However, I do wish he had been more supportive in talking up the vaccine and publicized when he got the shot.  It is disappointing that basically his statements on vaccine were we will have it by the election (self serving false statement meant to boast his campaign since everyone knew it would happen post election) and then post election he hasn't talked about basically anything other than election fraud.  

I do think Biden should be reaching out to him and asking him to participate in this new ad campaign re: vaccination program.  All, I have read is that they have not and honestly we need to put politics behind us on this and have everyone involved pushing the vaccines.  

Also, for all his success with the vaccine it is not going to make me overlook a complete disaster of an approach to the pandemic.  I honestly don't think there is a person alive that could have done a worse job of those other items.  I give him a D on overall Covid reponse and the only reason it is not a F is Operation Warp Speed has given us 2 of the 3 approved vaccines.  I would also like to thank the German govt. for help funding the Pfizer vaccine given they made initial 

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14 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

That's a bad faith link request for sure. I don't think it is as simple as you say(we just know), but I definitely know there is a difference between having a discussion with you about the data and asking you for a link to prove you wrong. 

 

Another poster provided the timeline, I provided the data, the two match very closely. I tried to marry the two together to make it straightforward to follow. I do get that it's not perfect (especially the "we know" part) and people can believe what they want obviously. 

Again, this is regarding the (downstate) NY experience, which was the requested information. Every part of the country will have a different experience based on multiple factors. Many states have multiple regions within the state. CA is another good example of this.

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4 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Yes. Specifically they stopped wearing masks at indoor gatherings for Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas just as the weather started to get colder. More indoor gatherings with multiple households and fewer masks led to the surge. After New Year's the gatherings decreased and so did the cases and hospitalizations. Roughly speaking.

One item here, while there's nothing wrong with hand washing, frankly that's not doing a tremendous amount to stop the spread of an airborne virus. It does help a person not put germs in their nose and mouth if they do have germs on their hands.

Do we have any reason to believe people in New York relaxed more during the holidays than people across the upper midwest? Because I can tell you that the surge for much of the midwest was well before Thanksgiving and Christmas...which suggests seasonality has a lot more to do with it than the populace meaningfully changing behaviors. 

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4 hours ago, jobarules said:

HE was telling us all 2020 about the great vaccine. You chose to ignore.

He did.

He was also saying..... LIBERATE MICHIGAN! and not beating down his followers who were calling the virus a hoax or claiming masking was the (exaggerating here) "THE WORST ATTACK AGAINST HUMAN RIGHTS IN HISTORY!!!!"........

 

 

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1 minute ago, Battersbox said:

Do we have any reason to believe people in New York relaxed more during the holidays than people across the upper midwest? Because I can tell you that the surge for much of the midwest was well before Thanksgiving and Christmas...which suggests seasonality has a lot more to do with it than the populace meaningfully changing behaviors. 

No idea what they did in the upper midwest. Would need to see a timeline of restrictions and when they eased, etc. I seem to recall Wisconsin opening bars being a factor in their surge there, but again I don't live there. I'm not familiar with every region's trajectory. That's part of the point. Covid-19 outcomes are regional, and sometimes one state can even have multiple regions, and all of the impacts are likely a function of multiple variables that happened there.

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3 minutes ago, Battersbox said:

Do we have any reason to believe people in New York relaxed more during the holidays than people across the upper midwest? Because I can tell you that the surge for much of the midwest was well before Thanksgiving and Christmas...which suggests seasonality has a lot more to do with it than the populace meaningfully changing behaviors. 

This is why I simply cant get behind the whole "the surge was because of the holidays". There is obviously way more to it than that unless people really think that people in ND, SD, WI, MI, IL, IA, and MN just hate their families or really follow guidelines. We arent talking about a small anomaly here. 

 

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2 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

This is why I simply cant get behind the whole "the surge was because of the holidays". There is obviously way more to it than that unless people really think that people in ND, SD, WI, MI, IL, IA, and MN just hate their families or really follow guidelines. We arent talking about a small anomaly here. 

 

But what those states have in common in that they all go from nice-pleasant-summer to well-this-#######-sucks-why-is-it-snowing-so-soon with like three weeks of fall in between.  Basically all of us go indoors around the same time, and that's not good for covid.

A lot of people have a hard time resisting the temptation to moralize the virus or make this all about individual choices.  And behavioral choices do matter, of course -- for example, people should choose to wear masks and keep away from other folks regardless of what their state leaders are telling them.  But it's hard not to notice a subtext of "It's your own fault if you got covid because you must have been naughty if you caught it" and that probably isn't going to borne out by the evidence once the research on this is done.   

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12 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

This is why I simply cant get behind the whole "the surge was because of the holidays". There is obviously way more to it than that unless people really think that people in ND, SD, WI, MI, IL, IA, and MN just hate their families or really follow guidelines. We arent talking about a small anomaly here. 

 

That area had some of the lowest restrictions and compliance with restrictions. Much of that surge involved virus penetration into rural areas that were largely untouched previously. Many in those areas never stopped gathering with friends and family where other parts of the country saw large changes in behavior during the holidays that likely led to the surges.

How do you explain the worst part of the pandemic happening in November-January if it doesn’t have to do with holiday travel and gatherings?

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20 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

He did.

He was also saying..... LIBERATE MICHIGAN! and not beating down his followers who were calling the virus a hoax or claiming masking was the (exaggerating here) "THE WORST ATTACK AGAINST HUMAN RIGHTS IN HISTORY!!!!"........

 

 

Agreed. He sucked at handling the pandemic on most things. Vaccines was not one of them

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10 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

But what those states have in common in that they all go from nice-pleasant-summer to well-this-#######-sucks-why-is-it-snowing-so-soon with like three weeks of fall in between.  Basically all of us go indoors around the same time, and that's not good for covid.

The weather in early november was actually quite beautiful across much of this same area that covid peaked in mid november. 

And the weather was brutal for many stretches long after that had no corresponding jumps. 

 

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Its common sense. As numbers increase, people start changing their behaviors and stop gathering as more and more people they know become sick. As numbers decline, people start taking more risks again. There is a natural ebb and flow to the curves in every region and country and it is entirely due to gathering indoors. Lockdowns dont do #### if people are still gathering indoors. Masks dont do #### if people are not wearing them indoors.

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14 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

That area had some of the lowest restrictions and compliance with restrictions. Much of that surge involved virus penetration into rural areas that were largely untouched previously. Many in those areas never stopped gathering with friends and family where other parts of the country saw large changes in behavior during the holidays that likely led to the surges.

How do you explain the worst part of the pandemic happening in November-January if it doesn’t have to do with holiday travel and gatherings?

Illinois had (has!) strong restrictions and high compliance relative to most of the country. Still, infections peaked before Thanksgiving. The worst of the pandemic was not November to January if you're talking about infections, it was earlier.

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1 hour ago, Redwes25 said:

I give Trump a lot of credit for Operation Warp speed (2 of the 3 approved vaccines were through it and we wouldn't be in such a good place without it on the vaccine front and imagine looking a lot like Europe).  However, I do wish he had been more supportive in talking up the vaccine and publicized when he got the shot.  It is disappointing that basically his statements on vaccine were we will have it by the election (self serving false statement meant to boast his campaign since everyone knew it would happen post election) and then post election he hasn't talked about basically anything other than election fraud.  

I do think Biden should be reaching out to him and asking him to participate in this new ad campaign re: vaccination program.  All, I have read is that they have not and honestly we need to put politics behind us on this and have everyone involved pushing the vaccines.  

Also, for all his success with the vaccine it is not going to make me overlook a complete disaster of an approach to the pandemic.  I honestly don't think there is a person alive that could have done a worse job of those other items.  I give him a D on overall Covid reponse and the only reason it is not a F is Operation Warp Speed has given us 2 of the 3 approved vaccines.  I would also like to thank the German govt. for help funding the Pfizer vaccine given they made initial 

Trump did us no favors when he claimed we would have it by the election.  By making that claim and politicizing the process he seriously injured the public trust. 

If the whole thing feels like it is being rushed to bolster the presidents election chances, a large segment of the population will not believe the vaccine is safe.

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22 hours ago, Doug B said:

I would like to know more about COVID response in Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. India has per-capita rates (both cases and deaths) less than 10% of the U.S., and the first three countries I mentioned are doing even better than India. However, I don't know their situations very well.

Let me tell you about India.  I went there for a month for work about 5 years ago.  I was in a city called Banaglore, considered to be the silicone valley of India.  And, even with all the high tech and money that comes with that, it's still a cesspool of a third world country/city.  I had to get a bunch of vaccines even to go.  You ever heard the saying "don't drink the water" when going to Mexico?  Well, in India you don't even use tap water to brush your teeth.  You use bottled water for everything.  The point being, the locals have a much more tolerant immune system than we do BECAUSE it's a third world country and they're exposed to stuff daily that would kill you and I.  I'm not saying this gives them immunity to Covid.  Studies would have to be done.  But it wouldn't surprise me, if those studies were done, if it was found that their immune systems could fend off newer diseases better just because of it's exposure to so many horrible ones.  I would suspect the other countries you mentioned are similar.

This is why it's hard to compare country to country.  Japan apparently has a different culture so we can't use the data from there.  Per my supposition, India isn't an apples to apples comparison with the U.S. due to differences in immune systems.  If you're going to compare it would have to be to countries with similar demographics, economies, etc.....but I suspect there would still be differences. 

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9 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

That area had some of the lowest restrictions and compliance with restrictions. Much of that surge involved virus penetration into rural areas that were largely untouched previously. Many in those areas never stopped gathering with friends and family where other parts of the country saw large changes in behavior during the holidays that likely led to the surges.

How do you explain the worst part of the pandemic happening in November-January if it doesn’t have to do with holiday travel and gatherings?

The WI surge matches up exactly with the surges in MKE county, Dane county, and Waukesha county. Three of the most populous counties in the state with very different measures in place. 

Hennepin county in Minnesota? Same

I dont feel like looking at every county in the midwest, but I don't think the bold adds up at quick glance. 

 

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27 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Agreed. He sucked at handling the pandemic on most things. Vaccines was not one of them

They did great developing vaccines but there was no sign that the distribution was going to be any better than testing or any other part of their pandemic response. The initial rollout was horrible and there didn’t seem to be any plan.

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2 minutes ago, John123 said:

This is why it's hard to compare country to country.  

Or state to state here in the U.S. Or even within states because some states have different regions within them. 

The countries you mentioned very likely have regional differences as well.

Covid impacts regions. It doesn't care one bit about man-made borders. 

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18 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

The WI surge matches up exactly with the surges in MKE county, Dane county, and Waukesha county. Three of the most populous counties in the state with very different measures in place. 

Hennepin county in Minnesota? Same

I dont feel like looking at every county in the midwest, but I don't think the bold adds up at quick glance. 

 

Right, the populous areas were hit hard as well but many of them had earlier surges that left rural areas untouched and giving them a false sense of security.

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2 hours ago, Biff84 said:

So it was the warm weather that stopped it? Explain the spikes in the summer in the southern states. And if it stormed through the elderly, how do you explain the surge during the holiday season? You need to suspend reality to reach those conclusions while ignoring clear spikes after holiday gatherings and decreases after lockdowns and mask mandates.

One theory for the spikes in southern states during the summer is similar to the spike in northern states which occurred in the fall/winter--people are indoors more, it's just due to the heat (for the A/C) instead of due to the cold.

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1 hour ago, jobarules said:

Agreed. He sucked at handling the pandemic on most things. Vaccines was not one of them

Do you believe the initial rollout was great?  I think there were some flaws in the beginning, but will say yes, they did get better on that.

Do you believe it was good for him to get the vaccine in secret himself?  Or should he have done like other leaders and gotten in publicly?

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45 minutes ago, John123 said:

Let me tell you about India.  I went there for a month for work about 5 years ago.  I was in a city called Banaglore, considered to be the silicone valley of India.  And, even with all the high tech and money that comes with that, it's still a cesspool of a third world country/city.  I had to get a bunch of vaccines even to go.  You ever heard the saying "don't drink the water" when going to Mexico?  Well, in India you don't even use tap water to brush your teeth.  You use bottled water for everything.  The point being, the locals have a much more tolerant immune system than we do BECAUSE it's a third world country and they're exposed to stuff daily that would kill you and I.  I'm not saying this gives them immunity to Covid.  Studies would have to be done.  But it wouldn't surprise me, if those studies were done, if it was found that their immune systems could fend off newer diseases better just because of it's exposure to so many horrible ones.  I would suspect the other countries you mentioned are similar.

This is why it's hard to compare country to country.  Japan apparently has a different culture so we can't use the data from there.  Per my supposition, India isn't an apples to apples comparison with the U.S. due to differences in immune systems.  If you're going to compare it would have to be to countries with similar demographics, economies, etc.....but I suspect there would still be differences. 

India was hit hard by COVID and went on much stricter lockdowns than we did here.  I don't think immune system due to their dirty water (among other things) had a thing to do with it.

 

But I generally agree that comparing country to country is difficult.  Cultures, sprawl, demographics...all play a big part in all of this.

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1 hour ago, jobarules said:

Agreed. He sucked at handling the pandemic on most things. Vaccines was not one of them

I think history will reflect that eventually....obviously if everything works out. That being said, (probably thru their own limitations) it's too soon for most non-Trump supporters (particulalry politicians) to admit that.      I'm one who feel that Biden should be giving, at the least, lip service accolades to Trump for his role in Warp Speed.   He could do that while stressing his own importance in regards to getting vaccines in the arms of Americans; a "This is what can happen when both Parties work together" moment.  

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3 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

 

Sometimes you live through something, experience it, and know what happened. There's not a "link" for it. 

Covid is a regional phenomenon. In many cases there are multiple regions within states. Literally upstate NY has a completely different curve than NYC and the suburbs. The locals here know what happened here and when, we were paying attention. Multiple locals have commented on it. Maybe you're familiar with how your region played out. It probably was different. 

This is the case here in Florida too.  You'd have to be quite the gymnast to chalk up the actions and results of the time to pure coincidence.  

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1 hour ago, John123 said:

Per my supposition, India isn't an apples to apples comparison with the U.S. due to differences in immune systems.

That's not why it's apples to apples.  It's because there's a billion+ people there and not even close to the level of available testing, hospitalization, etc. that there is here.  COVID19 is a novel coronavirus that *maybe* had some variable immune response based on past exposure to other, similar coronaviruses.  The viruses that ravage low and middle income countries are often mosquito-borne, or fecal-oral transmission.  

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20 minutes ago, The Commish said:

This is the case here in Florida too.  You'd have to be quite the gymnast to chalk up the actions and results of the time to pure coincidence.  

It is quite difficult to make the argument that holidays caused the surge in FL.

Roughly 2k Hospitalizations October 20th (Which was down from about 3k around labor day)

Roughly 3k on November 15th 

Roughly 4k December 1st 

Roughly 5k December 15th 

Roughly 6k December 27th 

Roughly 7k January 3rd 

Topping out at 7800 on January 14th

 

Used the Covid tracking project back to Dec. 8th and then used this for rest. Looking at that link it is practically straight line growth, the vast majority of which happened before xmas. I mean it increases 50% every 22-25 days until January 2nd and then doesnt even increase another 25% after that. 

In fact I would say you have to be Simone Biles to argue with such straight line growth that singular events drove what happened in FL.

 

 

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1 minute ago, parasaurolophus said:

It is quite difficult to make the argument that holidays caused the surge in FL.

Roughly 2k Hospitalizations October 20th (Which was down from about 3k around labor day)

Roughly 3k on November 15th 

Roughly 4k December 1st 

Roughly 5k December 15th 

Roughly 6k December 27th 

Roughly 7k January 3rd 

Topping out at 7800 on January 14th

 

Used the Covid tracking project back to Dec. 8th and then used this for rest. Looking at that link it is practically straight line growth, the vast majority of which happened before xmas. I mean it increases 50% every 22-25 days until January 2nd and then doesnt even increase another 25% after that. 

In fact I would say you have to be Simone Biles to argue with such straight line growth that singular events drove what happened in FL.

 

 

Are you ignoring Thanksgiving?

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13 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Are you ignoring Thanksgiving?

Between the end of September and "officially" opening up (and making it so people could have rules but not enforce them via fines etc) and Thanksgiving/Christmas, it's rather simple to see what happened...there was speculation we were plateauing in mid Oct...and that's all IF the state numbers are correct.  No one here knows that for sure and it seems that they've given up on trying to find out.  We had a weekly report on that here for several weeks, but then that segment just disappeared.

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21 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Are you ignoring Thanksgiving?

I dont understand the question? I laid the data out. I wasn't ignoring or considering any days. I grabbed the bottom from the summer surge and started upward at 1k intervals. Then I looked at the 50% intervals from the bottom. (2k,3k,4500,6750)

It is obvious that the growth started in Middle of october and continued in a practically straight line until January 14th. If singular events were the primary drivers(or even substantial drivers) with uneven time intervals in between them it would look very different. 

Unless you think Floridians hate labor day, ease into halloween and let it linger, then start early for thanksgiving and spread it out over a whole month, then do xmas and New years, and then bam, hibernate. 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

It is quite difficult to make the argument that holidays caused the surge in FL.

Roughly 2k Hospitalizations October 20th (Which was down from about 3k around labor day)

Roughly 3k on November 15th 

Roughly 4k December 1st 

Roughly 5k December 15th 

Roughly 6k December 27th 

Roughly 7k January 3rd 

Topping out at 7800 on January 14th

 

Used the Covid tracking project back to Dec. 8th and then used this for rest. Looking at that link it is practically straight line growth, the vast majority of which happened before xmas. I mean it increases 50% every 22-25 days until January 2nd and then doesnt even increase another 25% after that. 

In fact I would say you have to be Simone Biles to argue with such straight line growth that singular events drove what happened in FL.

 

 

So during a period where four major holidays happen, the hospitalizations more than tripled. And you’re using this as an argument that the holidays weren’t the cause?

Seems like that would be exactly what you’d expect from having one holiday after the next. What is your explanation of the continual growth during these months if it has nothing to do with holiday gatherings?

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7 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I dont understand the question? I laid the data out. I wasn't ignoring or considering any days. I grabbed the bottom from the summer surge and started upward at 1k intervals. Then I looked at the 50% intervals from the bottom. (2k,3k,4500,6750)

It is obvious that the growth started in Middle of october and continued in a practically straight line until January 14th. If singular events were the primary drivers(or even substantial drivers) with uneven time intervals in between them it would look very different. 

Unless you think Floridians hate labor day, ease into halloween and let it linger, then start early for thanksgiving and spread it out over a whole month, then do xmas and New years, and then bam, hibernate. 

 

 

 

People get sick on Thanksgiving, make other people sick in between Thanksgiving and XMAS, more people get sick in XMAS/NYE get other people sick in January. 

As more people get sick, people starting knowing more people sick and start curtailing those activities. This started sometime in January 

Edited by jobarules
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4 minutes ago, jobarules said:

People get sick on Thanksgiving, make other people sick in between Thanksgiving and XMAS, more people get sick in XMAS/NYE get other people sick in January. 

As more people get sick, people starting knowing more people sick and start curtailing those activities. This started sometime in January 

And with the holidays so close together, there’s not enough time for the community spread to slow down before the next gathering increasing the likelihood that someone will expose you.

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5 hours ago, Biff84 said:

So it was the warm weather that stopped it? Explain the spikes in the summer in the southern states. And if it stormed through the elderly, how do you explain the surge during the holiday season? You need to suspend reality to reach those conclusions while ignoring clear spikes after holiday gatherings and decreases after lockdowns and mask mandates.

The BLM protests throw the holiday gathering theory out the window.  I believe masks are helpful but when I'm told I will get sick seeing my family at Thanksgiving but I'll be fine if I take part in a huge BLM protest I start to question the message.

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9 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

The BLM protests throw the holiday gathering theory out the window.  I believe masks are helpful but when I'm told I will get sick seeing my family at Thanksgiving but I'll be fine if I take part in a huge BLM protest I start to question the message.

The protests were outside and mask usage was quite good. How does that have anything to do with gathering indoors with friends and families, likely without a mask?

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12 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

The BLM protests throw the holiday gathering theory out the window.  I believe masks are helpful but when I'm told I will get sick seeing my family at Thanksgiving but I'll be fine if I take part in a huge BLM protest I start to question the message.

Ones done outdoors, one indoors. It just shows that this spreads indoors and not as much outdoors. That being said I agree 100% with you about the optics and messaging not being consistent. 

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