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Government Response To The Coronavirus


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2 hours ago, moleculo said:

big programs are hard to roll out quickly.  Remember Obamacare web page debacle?  

I'm not going to find fault with trump org because they fumbled here...IMO fumbling was expected.  That being said, they didn't exceed expectations.

Nailed it.  Anyone expecting anything of this size getting rolled out this quickly without hiccups has never run a business or managed people imo.  

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Australia has had months of little to no community spread and even then it was confined to one state. By and large Australians are running around doing the right thing, sport was and is still hap

This is going to be a one off post because I don't want to get trolled or banned but if I were American, the context of Canada would be the biggest damning fact of how things have been handled in the

I am confident we are going to hit >750K deaths.  I think it might be a million.  I don't post a ton but I'm an ER doc in a big city. This is by far the worse I've seen since the pandemic star

29 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

330 million people can't do that - and we certainly can't do it the rest of our lives for a virus that is still 1/5th as deadly as yearly obesity rates and right on par with the yearly deaths from smoking cigarettes 

You realize that the "death rates" we have, today, are because of the precautions we are currently taking right?  Meaning, had they not been in place, the numbers likely look significantly different?

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2 hours ago, moleculo said:

big programs are hard to roll out quickly.  Remember Obamacare web page debacle?  

I'm not going to find fault with trump org because they fumbled here...IMO fumbling was expected.  That being said, they didn't exceed expectations.

:goodposting:

I would never say that the administration did a great job but considering what was involved, it wasn't the disaster people try to make it out to be. And saying there was no plan in place is disrespectful to all those that got us to this point. 

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52 minutes ago, The Commish said:

You realize that the "death rates" we have, today, are because of the precautions we are currently taking right?  Meaning, had they not been in place, the numbers likely look significantly different?

Is that how you view the Trump administration's response to covid? A success? Because had they done less, there would have been more deaths?

 

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3 hours ago, moleculo said:

big programs are hard to roll out quickly.  Remember Obamacare web page debacle?  

I'm not going to find fault with trump org because they fumbled here...IMO fumbling was expected.  That being said, they didn't exceed expectations.

what were the expectations of the first pandemic in 100 years ?

what were the expectations of masks and shutdowns?

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33 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

Is that how you view the Trump administration's response to covid? A success? Because had they done less, there would have been more deaths?

 

It seems like you're of the opinion there are only two choices "complete success" or "complete failure"  I don't live in that world and am really not sure how to interact with someone who does :shrug: 

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29 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

what were the expectations of the first pandemic in 100 years ?

what were the expectations of masks and shutdowns?

my expectations would have been a national response with clear guidance about who can receive a vaccination and when.  

Exceeding my expectations would have been vaccinations run by the US Military (best logistics organization in the world), setting up drive-thru locations around the country, and the ability for me to sign up for a slot and know exactly when to arrive.

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14 hours ago, Biff84 said:

You showed a significant spike that occurred with several events - Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years and all the other gatherings in-between. 

Do I really need to present you the data that is readily available on any COVID tracking site? You have the data and ignore the obvious conclusions. You presented data for around 6 Midwestern states that peaked early. Nearly every other state follow the same path as Florida that you inexplicably refuse to connect to the holiday gatherings that happened everywhere.

RIght. That had almost completely zero effect on the trajectory. 

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15 hours ago, The Commish said:

 

The larger "event" here was the official "opening" of the state at the end of September.  At that point, this administration said that local municipalities could still impose mask requirements, but they were not allowed to impose fines or other punishment to enforce them.  It was believed that we were beginning to plateau at that point, then cases started rising once again and remained on a constant trajectory through the holidays as the parties and whatnot were back on in a lot of areas here in the state and mask enforcement was officially neutered.  

This would actually be something that fits the trajectory. Was there an official announcement of this? I would try to get my hands on some mobility data then from that date forward and then compare to survey results re:masks.

But the "it's obviously the holiday gatherings" theory just makes pretty much zero sense. 

I mean you have to argue that Halloween had a bigger effect on spread than Xmas and new years combined in Florida.  

 

 

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5 hours ago, Redwes25 said:

Interesting study out by Brookings that conservatives are downplaying risks of Covid and liberals are over concerned.  A real problem when neither side can get the facts right on a fundamental thing like this.  Not a good sign re: polarization of this country.

 

https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-misinformation-is-distorting-covid-policies-and-behaviors/?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210318&instance_id=28184&nl=the-morning&regi_id=65040260&segment_id=53661&te=1&user_id=3ea1d4ddae9a047bd45c49df728706e2

:goodposting:

this is a good article.

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34 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

This would actually be something that fits the trajectory. Was there an official announcement of this? I would try to get my hands on some mobility data then from that date forward and then compare to survey results re:masks.

But the "it's obviously the holiday gatherings" theory just makes pretty much zero sense. 

I mean you have to argue that Halloween had a bigger effect on spread than Xmas and new years combined in Florida.  

 

 

I've said in three posts that the primary driver here was the lifting of the restrictions and opening up 100% events were the actions to which I was referring.  I never mentioned a holiday, though I am confident they were a factor to some extent.  We'll never know the specific impact as we don't have contact tracing in place to research that.  With all the travel in and out of the state during the holiday, it's hard to say they weren't a factor to some extent.

Yes, there was an official announcement of it.  I believe it was made on 9/25. 

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21 minutes ago, The Commish said:

I've said in three posts that the primary driver here was the lifting of the restrictions and opening up 100% events were the actions to which I was referring.  I never mentioned a holiday, though I am confident they were a factor to some extent.  We'll never know the specific impact as we don't have contact tracing in place to research that.  With all the travel in and out of the state during the holiday, it's hard to say they weren't a factor to some extent.

Yes, there was an official announcement of it.  I believe it was made on 9/25. 

Yeah, I thought originally you were hopping on board with the others in the back and forth. I missed an earlier post where you pointed this announcement out. 

Of course some spread occurred during holiday gatherings. Nobody would argue otherwise. But looking at the line any number of things could have happened to keep it from affecting trajectory... people getting tested before getting together, or committing to a bubble or quarantine in advance, or keeping windows open or focusing on being outside... 

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6 hours ago, Redwes25 said:

Interesting study out by Brookings that conservatives are downplaying risks of Covid and liberals are over concerned.  A real problem when neither side can get the facts right on a fundamental thing like this.  Not a good sign re: polarization of this country.

 

https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-misinformation-is-distorting-covid-policies-and-behaviors/?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210318&instance_id=28184&nl=the-morning&regi_id=65040260&segment_id=53661&te=1&user_id=3ea1d4ddae9a047bd45c49df728706e2

It's not related to the targeted question is this survey, but the divide it reveals definitely has a cause/effect in my daily life choices. Forget what I think about my actual risk; if 45% of our population underestimates or perhaps even completely dismisses risk to me and my family, I'm not going anywhere I don't need to be.  

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8 minutes ago, jobarules said:

I never said there was one. Just found it funny, its not good enough for us, so we are sending them to Canada and Mexico.

:confused:

I don't know why the FDA hasn't yet approved AZ for emergency authorization ... but Canada and Mexico both have. I have to imagine that the US approving the AZ vaccine is merely a matter of time and not an actual problem with the vaccine itself.

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1 minute ago, Doug B said:

:confused:

I don't know why the FDA hasn't yet approved AZ for emergency authorization ... but Canada and Mexico both have. I have to imagine that the US approving the AZ vaccine is merely a matter of time and not an actual problem with the vaccine itself.

I dunno. Europe suspended the vaccine for a few days due to blood clot issues. It doesnt seem as safe as the other ones.

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4 minutes ago, jobarules said:

I dunno. Europe suspended the vaccine for a few days due to blood clot issues. It doesn't seem as safe as the other ones.

The blood clot issue, essentially, is a falsehood. It's known right now that the few people (~30 out of 17 million) that got blood clots after being vaccinated with AZ did not get those clots as a result of the vaccine. I have read some speculation that the European nations halting the AZ vaccine are doing it to cover up supply shortfalls and not because of safety concerns:

Quote

 

But the other factor in deciding on suspension could even be supply. In the UK, there are plentiful stocks. In Europe, there are not. AstraZeneca has just cut its proposed deliveries again, down to 30m doses in the first quarter, which is about a third of what was originally promised. Suspending the vaccine is easier in Europe if it is not available in great quantities anyway.

 


As for US approval of AstraZeneca's vaccine ... we're a few weeks away now and it will happen. We're conclusively not sending Canada and Mexico unwanted, second-rate vaccines.

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Just now, The Commish said:

Isn't Astra Zeneca a UK company?  I didn't even know we had an order from them that was filled and sitting here for us to ship off somewhere else.  :oldunsure:

FDA approval of AZ is currently ongoing. Like the existing U.S.-approved vaccines, the U.S. AZ vaccine orders were filled before FDA approval was granted.

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24 minutes ago, Doug B said:

The blood clot issue, essentially, is a falsehood. It's known right now that the few people (~30 out of 17 million) that got blood clots after being vaccinated with AZ did not get those clots as a result of the vaccine. I have read some speculation that the European nations halting the AZ vaccine are doing it to cover up supply shortfalls and not because of safety concerns:


As for US approval of AstraZeneca's vaccine ... we're a few weeks away now and it will happen. We're conclusively not sending Canada and Mexico unwanted, second-rate vaccines.

Its efficacy rate is 82% after 2 doses, they have not ruled out that blood clots were not caused by the vaccine, and it still hasnt been approved here. Youre kidding youself if offered your choice of AZ, Moderna, Pfizer, or J&J, AZ would be your last choice.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/03/18/coronavirus-variants-vaccines-deaths-cases/4742648001/

Quote

 

Europe's top medicines regulator on Thursday said the AstraZeneca-Oxford University COVID-19 vaccine is safe, despite reports of unusual blood clots in several people among the 18 million who have received at least one dose in Europe and the UK.

Researchers with the EMA – the European equivalent of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration – said they can't totally rule out the possibility that a few dozen cases of blood clots and disorders out of all those vaccinated were triggered by the shot. But overall the vaccine is safe and should be delivered across Europe and elsewhere.

 

https://apnews.com/article/eu-regulator-review-astrazeneca-shot-blood-clot-links-437190969ed016e40bdfcbb4b63fc7a9

Quote

EU agency: AstraZeneca vaccine safe, will add clot warning

 

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"Can't rule out" is the media using scientists' natural hedging nature against them by facing them with the prospect of proving a negative. IMHO, "can't rule out" is light years away from causal correlation. Others may feel free to disagree.

Here's the EMA's original report -- no filtering through a media source, no leading questions at a news conference:

Quote

 

EMA’s safety committee, PRAC, concluded its preliminary review of a signal of blood clots in people vaccinated with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca at its extraordinary meeting of 18 March 2021. The Committee confirmed that:

* the benefits of the vaccine in combating the still widespread threat of COVID-19 (which itself results in clotting problems and may be fatal) continue to outweigh the risk of side effects;

* the vaccine is not associated with an increase in the overall risk of blood clots (thromboembolic events) in those who receive it;

* there is no evidence of a problem related to specific batches of the vaccine or to particular manufacturing sites;

* however, the vaccine may be associated with very rare cases of blood clots associated with thrombocytopenia, i.e. low levels of blood platelets (elements in the blood that help it to clot) with or without bleeding, including rare cases of clots in the vessels draining blood from the brain (CVST).

 


The parts in blue and red perhaps seem contradictory. However, it reads to me that general blood clots are not an issue with the AZ vaccine, but that patients with a specific clotting disorder (thrombocytopenia) may (or may not) need to be screened and avoid receiving this vaccine.

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And several European countries that had halted the AZ vaccinations are resuming starting tomorrow, and more resuming in the coming days.

Quote

 

Italy, France, Germany and several other countries will resume administering AstraZeneca jabs from Friday after Europe’s medicines regulator said the vaccine was “safe and effective” and its benefits outweighed its risks.

Portugal will resume on Monday, Spain and the Netherlands next week, while Sweden’s public health agency said it would take “a few days” to decide.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, jobarules said:

That's the article's title. The opening sentence? See below:

Quote

The European Union’s drug regulatory agency said Thursday that the AstraZeneca vaccine doesn’t increase the overall incidence of blood clots and that the benefits of using it outweigh the possible risks, paving the way for European countries to resume dispensing the shots.

Too much coverage of the blood clot issue in the popular media lacks nuance. This is a case where taking verbal short cuts and just talking about "blood clots" in a general way is misleading people.

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2 hours ago, Doug B said:

FDA approval of AZ is currently ongoing. Like the existing U.S.-approved vaccines, the U.S. AZ vaccine orders were filled before FDA approval was granted.

Thanks...makes sense

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20 hours ago, moleculo said:

my expectations would have been a national response with clear guidance about who can receive a vaccination and when.  

Exceeding my expectations would have been vaccinations run by the US Military (best logistics organization in the world), setting up drive-thru locations around the country, and the ability for me to sign up for a slot and know exactly when to arrive.

but there were no vaccines until after the election in November right? 

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so we give great credit to Trump and his administration for the first 10 months of 2020

because it could have been far worse, many more could have been infected and died .......... just like we give credit to masks and social distancing because its said that hey, many more could have been infected and died

right ?

 

and LOL Fauci yesterday now backtracking again ... 3' distancing is ok now ?

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6 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

so we give great credit to Trump and his administration for the first 10 months of 2020

because it could have been far worse, many more could have been infected and died .......... just like we give credit to masks and social distancing because its said that hey, many more could have been infected and died

right ?

 

and LOL Fauci yesterday now backtracking again ... 3' distancing is ok now ?

had Trump actively promoted masks and social distancing, we could have given Trump credit for that.  any affect that masks/distancing had was in spite of Trump, not because of.

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11 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

so we give great credit to Trump and his administration for the first 10 months of 2020

because it could have been far worse, many more could have been infected and died .......... just like we give credit to masks and social distancing because its said that hey, many more could have been infected and died

right ?

 

and LOL Fauci yesterday now backtracking again ... 3' distancing is ok now ?

I think hes saying 3' with a mask is ok now but I agree with the sentiment. Tired of all the backtracking even if some of it may be legit.

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1 hour ago, moleculo said:

had Trump actively promoted masks and social distancing, we could have given Trump credit for that.  any affect that masks/distancing had was in spite of Trump, not because of.

doesn't matter

what matters is that we can always say " it would have been worse" 

that's what we're doing with the masks, 6' distance, shutting things down etc 

it can't be just one way - if we question the effectiveness of the 10 months with Trump's administration's actions then we need to question the effectiveness of the shutdowns, closures, limitations, masks and all that too

 

this blind " well it would have been worse"  faith is misguided and false IMO and if it isn't? then lets also say the same of Trump's administration response

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7 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

doesn't matter

what matters is that we can always say " it would have been worse" 

that's what we're doing with the masks, 6' distance, shutting things down etc 

it can't be just one way - if we question the effectiveness of the 10 months with Trump's administration's actions then we need to question the effectiveness of the shutdowns, closures, limitations, masks and all that too

 

this blind " well it would have been worse"  faith is misguided and false IMO and if it isn't? then lets also say the same of Trump's administration response

you do you, Stealthycat.

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2 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

but there were no vaccines until after the election in November right? 

The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines were created within days of the genome sequence being released and were in human testing in February and April, respectively.  Once they got through trials, the rest of the time before they were released was obtaining FDA emergency approval.  Stephen Hahn was appointed by Trump as Commissioner of Food and Drugs and headed up the FDA.  Are you saying that Trump delayed the vaccine approval until after election night?   

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1 hour ago, Stealthycat said:

doesn't matter

what matters is that we can always say " it would have been worse" 

that's what we're doing with the masks, 6' distance, shutting things down etc 

it can't be just one way - if we question the effectiveness of the 10 months with Trump's administration's actions then we need to question the effectiveness of the shutdowns, closures, limitations, masks and all that too

 

this blind " well it would have been worse"  faith is misguided and false IMO and if it isn't? then lets also say the same of Trump's administration response

In retrospect it seems like a few things are true:

It actually could have been way, way worse than it was.

We also could have done a better job handling it.

Universal lockdowns were a mistake. Regional approaches would have been better. 

Masks and social distancing help where they help. In the beginning people would freak out at the park, outdoors.

But a lot of this second guessing is just that. Monday morning quarterbacking. Going forward, I want the government to be a heck of a lot more prepared for these events. The initial panic was because we had little to no idea how to handle this properly. Re-open the pandemic response unit because that's what government should help with. Effective emergency preparedness. Stay out of the culture BS for crying out loud and do the job of effective governing. 

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12 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

In retrospect it seems like a few things are true:

It actually could have been way, way worse than it was.

We also could have done a better job handling it.

Universal lockdowns were a mistake. Regional approaches would have been better. 

Masks and social distancing help where they help. In the beginning people would freak out at the park, outdoors.

But a lot of this second guessing is just that. Monday morning quarterbacking. Going forward, I want the government to be a heck of a lot more prepared for these events. The initial panic was because we had little to no idea how to handle this properly. Re-open the pandemic response unit because that's what government should help with. Effective emergency preparedness. Stay out of the culture BS for crying out loud and do the job of effective governing. 

This didn't happen.  

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21 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

This didn't happen.  

Yep. Not even close.

No MPs in the street? No showing a soldier a card proving you are still allowed to go to the grocery that week? No checkpoints marking your car's odometer reading? No lockdown.

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I’m out on Dr. Fauci.  Rand Paul absolutely destroyed him yesterday and it was nice to see. When the virus first broke Fauci told people not to wear masks.  No he wants people who have been vaccinated to wear not one but two masks?  There is no science supporting this need, and it’s giving some people the impression that the vaccines aren’t effective.  How has this guy not been fired yet?

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13 minutes ago, ekbeats said:

I’m out on Dr. Fauci.  Rand Paul absolutely destroyed him yesterday and it was nice to see. When the virus first broke Fauci told people not to wear masks.  No he wants people who have been vaccinated to wear not one but two masks?  There is no science supporting this need, and it’s giving some people the impression that the vaccines aren’t effective.  How has this guy not been fired yet?

Agreed 100%

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One thing I've been looking for more info on is the fact that Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine apparently implemented real contact tracing early on.  Not half-assed, but legit efforts.  And all three, along with Utah, Washington and Oregon, are the only states that haven't lost at least one in every 1000 residents to COVID.

Will be interesting to find out over the next few years how much of that is down to actions these states took vs dumb luck, geography, population density, etc.

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35 minutes ago, ekbeats said:

I’m out on Dr. Fauci.  Rand Paul absolutely destroyed him yesterday and it was nice to see. When the virus first broke Fauci told people not to wear masks.  No he wants people who have been vaccinated to wear not one but two masks?  There is no science supporting this need, and it’s giving some people the impression that the vaccines aren’t effective.  How has this guy not been fired yet?

When did he say this, and did he give a reason for that?

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5 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

When did he say this, and did he give a reason for that?

He’s been saying it for weeks, and he’s been wearing two masks himself.  Paul called him out on it saying it was theatre bring that he’d been vaccinated and it’s what started their whole back and forth.

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6 minutes ago, ekbeats said:

He’s been saying it for weeks, and he’s been wearing two masks himself.  Paul called him out on it saying it was theatre bring that he’d been vaccinated and it’s what started their whole back and forth.

Looked at a few sites but didn't see anything about him recommending 2 masks.   Just read the exchange between him and Paul though.  

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12 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

When did he say this, and did he give a reason for that?

You can Google the reasoning but essentially Fauci was saying continue to wear masks because we don’t know how protected you are against these variants that are appearing now in the US.

Other Senators went further and said mask wearing after you have been sick with Covid helps establish to others that we should continue to wear these things until we are out of the woods.

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1 minute ago, The General said:

You can Google the reasoning but essentially Fauci was saying continue to wear masks because we don’t know how protected you are against these variants that are appearing now in the US.

Other Senators went further and said mask wearing after you have been sick with Covid helps establish to others that we should continue to wear these things until we are out of the woods.

I got that, but I took the OP to be saying that Fauci came out and said he recommended everybody do the 2 mask thing.   I see a couple places from a month or two ago where he said he does it sometimes.  

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3 minutes ago, The General said:

we don’t know how protected you are against these variants that are appearing now in the US.

We don't know. But yeah listen to a politician that we should lie to people about vaccines. 

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I got that, but I took the OP to be saying that Fauci came out and said he recommended everybody do the 2 mask thing.   I see a couple places from a month or two ago where he said he does it sometimes.  

I didn’t see the whole exchange but that was more Rand’s thing that he was wrapping up as part of the “theater” comment.

Fauci was wearing 2 masks apparently. Very disturbing to Rand I guess.

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