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Just now, Amused to Death said:

See the interactive chart about 1/2 way down. 424,000 on Jan. 20. Now, factor in the Trump administration was blocking the incoming administration from covid data. Then how long do you give the new admin before they can act?

And yes, I see the current total of deaths sadly is just over 600K.

I think we agree on the numbers.  I didn't say anything about Trump or Biden.  

If I did I'd make sure to point out that Fauci and Co. signed up on Biden's team on December 3rd.  And two vaccines were approved for emergency use in December that turned out to be highly effective.  

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This is going to be a one off post because I don't want to get trolled or banned but if I were American, the context of Canada would be the biggest damning fact of how things have been handled in the

Australia has had months of little to no community spread and even then it was confined to one state. By and large Australians are running around doing the right thing, sport was and is still hap

I am confident we are going to hit >750K deaths.  I think it might be a million.  I don't post a ton but I'm an ER doc in a big city. This is by far the worse I've seen since the pandemic star

16 minutes ago, Doug B said:

He's measuring from Election Day 2020 for an unexplained reason.

Because SC asked for numbers "since Biden won the election"...the real question is why SC thinks that's a meaningful question.  It seems to be a new shtick with parts/roles and everything :lol: 

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On 5/15/2021 at 10:48 AM, timschochet said:

This is a political thread. I agree with you. But we have had two Presidential administrations deal with this crisis. And my serious conclusion is: 

 

1. The Trump administration gets a D. The only reason they don’t get an F is Operation Warp Speed, in which they basically left Big Pharma alone, and that helped bring about a quick vaccine. But otherwise they were either completely incompetent or deliberately malfeasant, which led to thousands of deaths that could have been absolutely avoided. 
 

2. The Biden Administration gets an A+. They took over a situation in complete chaos and transformed it into a smooth, extraordinary example of good government- arguably the best example since the Apollo program. We are now reaping the results. 

Liberal democrat here.  I think you are being hard on Trump with that grade, or better put, you are lumping too many things into that grade to really allow nuance.

Initial response: F

Adherence to "miracle cures" rather than science: F

Making masks political: F

The first COVID bill: A+ While the economy tanking likely was the final nail in the coffin for his re-election, The relief bill kept a lot of people from losing everything during the shutdown.

Operation Warp Speed: B+ (Only critique I will give is he didn't have a plan to cross the goal line, and then abdicated his leadership on getting people vaccinated bc he was butthurt by the election)

I'd probably give him a c- overall bc warp speed did do what it was supposed to, get the vaccine out, and trump bought a ton of the vaccine (and even tried to steal a vaccine company from the EU as well).  Trumps big problem is he didn't lead. He equivocated and vacillated instead of telling his supporters "wear a mask" "take the vaccine" and Help your fellow Americans. 

 

Biden gets an A mainly bc Biden knows how government works. The smoothed over the previous administrations rough spots to get the vaccine out.

Its a big win in that we can almost (almost) go back to our normal lives only 13 months after the world basically shut down.

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11 minutes ago, The Commish said:
29 minutes ago, Doug B said:

He's measuring from Election Day 2020 for an unexplained reason.

Because SC asked for numbers "since Biden won the election"...the real question is why SC thinks that's a meaningful question.  It seems to be a new shtick with parts/roles and everything

Right on -- and I've been hoping SC lays out the reason he couched it that way. He may think "C'mon, it speaks for itself" ... but it doesn't.

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15 minutes ago, Gatorman said:

Making masks political: F

To this day, I will never understand why Donald Trump was so resistant to being seen wearing a mask.

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38 minutes ago, Mookie said:

Since the CDC's recommendation only pertains to vaccinated people, it begs questions as to whether mask requirements should only apply to unvaccinated people, requiring proof of vaccination, whether vaccinations should be mandatory etc..    

To me, it makes sense to drop mask requirements entirely.  Given that our infection rates are plummeting and vaccines are readily available, the public health crisis is no longer as critical and the justification for having mask laws is waning.   Wear a mask if you want/need, but allow the unvaccinated to go mask free if they want.  Let them assume the risk of getting COVID and spreading it amongst their unvaccinated peers, who've also assumed that risk.  It is no longer the responsibility of the vaccinated to keep the unvaccinated safe by using the imperfect measure of wearing a mask when there is a far better option available. 

If infection rates blow up amongst the unvaccinated population and it becomes a public health crisis, that is when government should consider mandatory vaccination.  It could already be a requirement for schools and international travel, but I doubt we will ever get to needing that extreme of a solution.  

I would be fine with this if children as young as 6 months could get vaccinated.  Until then, we should require  unvaccinated people to wear masks indoors.  The government will never require all people to get vaccinated, but it very well may require children to get a vaccine to attend public schools.

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2 minutes ago, Doug B said:

To this day, I will never understand why Donald Trump was so resistant to being seen wearing a mask.

Projected Image: Alpha male that can take on anything.  Not weak and vulnerable. 

Reality:  Got COVID, went to hospital, spread virus among coworkers, lost an election for lack of seriousness on the virus.

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2 minutes ago, Doug B said:

To this day, I will never understand why Donald Trump was so resistant to being seen wearing a mask.

He is likely psychologically-impaired, petty, and more concerned with aesthetics than real things. He thought it made him look subject to something other than himself.

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Posted (edited)

some time ago, I was thinking about when we can start easing off.  The threshold I came up with was roughly equivalent to the flu, in terms of deaths per day.  I mean, we don't really shut the country down for the flu, but we do still take the threat seriously - vaccines, taking care of people when they are sick, etc.  However, we still go to concerts, football games, bars, etc.  The world keeps spinning.

Nationally, in 2017-2018, 61k people died from the flu.  If you assume flu season is 120 days (Dec - March), that's ~508 people per day.  I want to see our daily death total somewhere near there before calling it good.

Our 7 day moving average is 633 per day.  That's pretty damn close.

I can't blame us for opening things up a bit early - things are definitely trending in the right direction.  We need to continue monitoring - if things start climbing again, we may have to re-introduce mask mandates and closures but I hope that's not necessary.

Edited by moleculo
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7 minutes ago, Doug B said:

To this day, I will never understand why Donald Trump was so resistant to being seen wearing a mask.

Ego (not able to admit he's wrong AND fear of supporters not liking him anymore).  He seemed to have a hard time reading the room in just about every single situation including the ones involving his loyalists.

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10 minutes ago, moleculo said:

Our 7 day moving average is 633 per day.  That's pretty damn close.

The 7-day averages peak every Friday. Hoping on Friday the 21st, it dips down below 800 for the first time in a long while (802 on Fri 5/14).

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13 minutes ago, moleculo said:

some time ago, I was thinking about when we can start easing off.  The threshold I came up with was roughly equivalent to the flu, in terms of deaths per day.  I mean, we don't really shut the country down for the flu, but we do still take the threat seriously - vaccines, taking care of people when they are sick, etc.  However, we still go to concerts, football games, bars, etc.  The world keeps spinning.

Nationally, in 2017-2018, 61k people died from the flu.  If you assume flu season is 120 days (Dec - March), that's ~508 people per day.  I want to see our daily death total somewhere near there before calling it good.

Our 7 day moving average is 633 per day.  That's pretty damn close.

I can't blame us for opening things up a bit early - things are definitely trending in the right direction.  We need to continue monitoring - if things start climbing again, we may have to re-introduce mask mandates and closures but I hope that's not necessary.

This is a great way of thinking about it IMO.  Well said.

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11 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Ego (not able to admit he's wrong AND fear of supporters not liking him anymore).

Interesting. I always thought Trump was on the long side of the lever in regards to the political far-right. Figured there was a significant cult-of-personality happening and that Trump could sway those supporters so long as he didn't pull a 180 on pet subjects (of which masking didn't seem to be one circa spring 2020).

But perhaps not.

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33 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

I would be fine with this if children as young as 6 months could get vaccinated.  Until then, we should require  unvaccinated people to wear masks indoors.  The government will never require all people to get vaccinated, but it very well may require children to get a vaccine to attend public schools.

Negative.  The mortality rate of covid in children is a fraction of what it is with the flu even with the flu vaccine.  

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On 5/15/2021 at 7:54 PM, The Commish said:

Is this just your snarky way of saying you now understand what I said rather obviously initially?  It's in all those reply posts....every single one.  I get that you don't like the Darwin comment and I admitted it was harsh, but just a few posts after my comment you agreed with jm192 saying pretty much the exact same thing I said, sans bringing Darwin into it.  I don't do that sort of thing frequently and reserve it for special people like I described.  

 

No.  I think your Darwin comment was a jerk comment but you knew it was when you made it.  So those of you taking the vaccine.... say some bad side effect comes out and you get sick.  Make you a Darwin candidate?

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

He's measuring from Election Day 2020 for an unexplained reason.

Kinda surprised he didn't go all in and ask how many died since Biden won the dem primary

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1 hour ago, moleculo said:

some time ago, I was thinking about when we can start easing off.  The threshold I came up with was roughly equivalent to the flu, in terms of deaths per day.  I mean, we don't really shut the country down for the flu, but we do still take the threat seriously - vaccines, taking care of people when they are sick, etc.  However, we still go to concerts, football games, bars, etc.  The world keeps spinning.

Nationally, in 2017-2018, 61k people died from the flu.  If you assume flu season is 120 days (Dec - March), that's ~508 people per day.  I want to see our daily death total somewhere near there before calling it good.

Our 7 day moving average is 633 per day.  That's pretty damn close.

I can't blame us for opening things up a bit early - things are definitely trending in the right direction.  We need to continue monitoring - if things start climbing again, we may have to re-introduce mask mandates and closures but I hope that's not necessary.

Death is a pretty low bar.  COVID seems to have several downstream effects that will diminish quality of life.

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2 minutes ago, Navin Johnson said:

Death is a pretty low bar.  COVID seems to have several downstream effects that will diminish quality of life.

So what's the bar to open back up?  We've been wearing masks and distancing and giving up travel, etc. in the name of saving lives.  Now you mention the downstream effects-- I actually think deaths is a pretty good marker to consider opening back up.

People with mild disease are probably going to have a lot less severe downstream effects.  Vaccination will markedly reduce the number of severe cases.  

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1 minute ago, jm192 said:

So what's the bar to open back up?  We've been wearing masks and distancing and giving up travel, etc. in the name of saving lives.  Now you mention the downstream effects-- I actually think deaths is a pretty good marker to consider opening back up.

People with mild disease are probably going to have a lot less severe downstream effects.  Vaccination will markedly reduce the number of severe cases.  

I don't disagree with anything you are saying

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/04/210407174321.htm

But 10% in terms of long-haulers is a lot and will have a pretty significant impact on our economy and health care system.  

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Just now, jm192 said:

So what's the bar to open back up?  We've been wearing masks and distancing and giving up travel, etc. in the name of saving lives.  Now you mention the downstream effects-- I actually think deaths is a pretty good marker to consider opening back up.

People with mild disease are probably going to have a lot less severe downstream effects.  Vaccination will markedly reduce the number of severe cases.  

My low bar comment was in regard to comparing the two ailments, not the threshold for opening back up.

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15 minutes ago, Navin Johnson said:

Death is a pretty low bar.  COVID seems to have several downstream effects that will diminish quality of life.

it is a low bar but it is a metric that can easily be tracked.  you could use death as a surrogate for infections, do some data massaging to normalize across demographics (age, comorbidities, etc), but what # of infections are we, as a society, ok with? 

What other data set can you look at to rationally make decisions?

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1 minute ago, moleculo said:

it is a low bar but it is a metric that can easily be tracked.  you could use death as a surrogate for infections, do some data massaging to normalize across demographics (age, comorbidities, etc), but what # of infections are we, as a society, ok with? 

What other data set can you look at to rationally make decisions?

I'm ok with the metric, just not ok when comparing it with that of the flu.

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

Interesting. I always thought Trump was on the long side of the lever in regards to the political far-right. Figured there was a significant cult-of-personality happening and that Trump could sway those supporters so long as he didn't pull a 180 on pet subjects (of which masking didn't seem to be one circa spring 2020).

But perhaps not.

I never said he was good at reading the room :shrug:

Clearly he wasn't/isn't.

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3 minutes ago, Navin Johnson said:

I'm ok with the metric, just not ok when comparing it with that of the flu.

But influenza is a pretty good comparison point.  It's an infectious disease that we deal with every year.  It makes some people sick, it makes some people very sick, and it kills a few people.  And we do literally nothing about it (aside from vaccination) because we've collectively decided as a society that the harm caused by the flu isn't worth mitigating against.  

It's not that covid-19 = influenza A or anything like that.  It's just that if we continue to treat covid-19 as a magical unicorn with no possible points of comparison with other illnesses, we risk going too far with mitigations that have run their course already.

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8 minutes ago, moleculo said:

it is a low bar but it is a metric that can easily be tracked.  you could use death as a surrogate for infections, do some data massaging to normalize across demographics (age, comorbidities, etc), but what # of infections are we, as a society, ok with? 

What other data set can you look at to rationally make decisions?

IMO it no longer matters.. it is no longer about "us" as a country.

Each individual can now choose to vaccinate.  Or not.

The world needs to move on from the idea that "we" need to decide for others.

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, matuski said:

IMO it no longer matters.. it is no longer about "us" as a country.

Each individual can now choose to vaccinate.  Or not.

The world needs to move on from the idea that "we" need to decide for others.

it's not that simple.

I'm not here to advocate for the "nanny" state, but COVID treatment and care will continue to be a drain on our national resources as long as it festers.  As mentioned, long-haulers will have conditions indefinitely, plus many anti-vaxxers (plus a small percentage of vaccinated and those who cannot be vaccinated), will end up in the hospital and ER.  This can be used to justify further mitigation efforts if things veer off course.

Consider we, as a country, don't allow individuals to choose to wear seat belts.  Or not.  We don't have a choice on wearing a motorcycle helmet (depending on state).  We don't have a choice if we choose to smoke meth.  There are legal boundaries of what kind of unhealthy behaviors we can pursue.

I hope it doesn't come to that and we truly are done with this forever.  However, I fear that we see an increase similar to what we saw last summer when things first started opening up.

Edited by moleculo
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5 minutes ago, moleculo said:

it's not that simple.

I'm not here to advocate for the "nanny" state, but COVID treatment and care will continue to be a drain on our national resources as long as it festers.  As mentioned, long-haulers will have conditions indefinitely, plus many anti-vaxxers (plus a small percentage of vaccinated and those who cannot be vaccinated), will end up in the hospital and ER.  This can be used to justify further mitigation efforts if things veer off course.

Consider we, as a country, don't allow individuals to choose to wear seat belts.  Or not.  We don't have a choice on wearing a motorcycle helmet (depending on state).  We don't have a choice if we choose to smoke meth.  There are legal boundaries of what kind of unhealthy behaviors we can pursue.

I hope it doesn't come to that and we truly are done with this forever.  However, I fear that we see an increase similar to what we saw last summer when things first started opening up.

Think there's also some degree of fear of a variant forming that current vaccines aren't effective against. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, tonydead said:

Negative.  The mortality rate of covid in children is a fraction of what it is with the flu even with the flu vaccine.  

Mortality isn't the only thing.  As noted in this another threads, there are lots of people that contract COVID, don't die, but have some medium (and likely long) term health effects.  Sure, those numbers are low for children, but since they cannot be vaccinated at this time, I say that those that can spread the virus should bear the burden of restrictions until everyone can be vaccinated.

Edited by The Z Machine
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47 minutes ago, matuski said:

Each individual can now choose to vaccinate.  Or not.

But that's only true for those over 12 years old.  My 8 year olds cannot get a vaccine at this time.

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1 minute ago, The Z Machine said:

Mortality isn't the only thing.  As noted in this another threads, there are lots of people that contract COVID, don't die, but have some medium (and likely long) term health effects.  Sure, those numbers are low for children, but since they cannot be vaccinated at this time, I say that those that can spread the virus should bear the burden of restrictions until everyone can be vaccinated.

Sadly, I don't think the Modern American is capable of bearing any burden whatsoever.

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3 minutes ago, moleculo said:

Sadly, I don't think the Modern American is capable of bearing any burden whatsoever.

I don't think we should give them a choice other than a) get vaccinated, or b) get burdened-inated 

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6 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Mortality isn't the only thing.  As noted in this another threads, there are lots of people that contract COVID, don't die, but have some medium (and likely long) term health effects.  Sure, those numbers are low for children, but since they cannot be vaccinated at this time, I say that those that can spread the virus should bear the burden of restrictions until everyone can be vaccinated.

Negative.  Schools still require masks.  Everywhere else is a free public space, that would be you and your children's choice, not others.

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31 minutes ago, moleculo said:

it's not that simple.

I'm not here to advocate for the "nanny" state, but COVID treatment and care will continue to be a drain on our national resources as long as it festers.  As mentioned, long-haulers will have conditions indefinitely, plus many anti-vaxxers (plus a small percentage of vaccinated and those who cannot be vaccinated), will end up in the hospital and ER.  This can be used to justify further mitigation efforts if things veer off course.

Consider we, as a country, don't allow individuals to choose to wear seat belts.  Or not.  We don't have a choice on wearing a motorcycle helmet (depending on state).  We don't have a choice if we choose to smoke meth.  There are legal boundaries of what kind of unhealthy behaviors we can pursue.

I hope it doesn't come to that and we truly are done with this forever.  However, I fear that we see an increase similar to what we saw last summer when things first started opening up.

Not true.  For all those things there were laws that were voted on.  You'll never get a vote past American's on mandatory vaccinations.

Those are silly examples anyway.  1) It's a public health issue not a vehicularly safety issue.  These laws would be akin to outlawing sugar, or fast food, or smoking.  At most it turns into a tax grab. 2) You don't wear a seat belt on a motorcycle and there isn't a safety standard's organization for motorcycle helmets in the laws.  There are a ton of motorcycle helmets that are more of a hat that looks like a helmet as not to get pulled over, because there isn't proper regulations. 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

But that's only true for those over 12 years old.  My 8 year olds cannot get a vaccine at this time.

At this point the majority is accomodating the minority.

I guess you can choose to not have your 8 year old out there, or have them wear a mask.

There really is no argument or logic for vaccinated people to be limited anymore.

Edited by matuski
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2 hours ago, Ramblin Wreck said:

No.  I think your Darwin comment was a jerk comment but you knew it was when you made it.  So those of you taking the vaccine.... say some bad side effect comes out and you get sick.  Make you a Darwin candidate?

I don't know what "Darwin Candidate" means, but this is the theory...if it's too long to read it's summed up by "Survival of the Fittest"

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4 hours ago, Apple Jack said:

https://www.arlnow.com/2021/05/17/just-in-coronavirus-cases-hit-lowest-point-since-start-of-pandemic/

It's almost as if the coronavirus took one look at Smokin' Joe and beat a path out of town. Out of my town, anyway.

considering the virus was at some point going to run its course and the Trump administration vaccine machine hitting full steam, its hardly what you say it was but with rare exception, what happens under a President is theirs to own 

Trump had no vaccines and had deaths from covid and the way NY and others killed in nursing homes .... that all resulted in many deaths

Biden had vaccines and under his lead, we've had many deaths

ratings D and A seem really partisan IMO

 

Had Trump been re-elected, I think the numbers dropping would have been pretty much identical, and had covid hit during an Obama year, numbers pretty much the same as well but that's my opinion

 

its not over either, covid is still here, it'll keep killing the weak and I suspect by end of 2024 Biden will have far more deaths under his administration that Trump did ... i wonder if he'll still be given an A by some ?

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from the "A" President who said

 

Quote

 

"I think it's a big mistake. Look, I hope everybody's realized by now, these masks make a difference. We are on the cusp of being able to fundamentally change the nature of this disease because of the way in which we're able to get vaccines in people's arms," Biden said when asked about the decisions by GOP Govs. Greg Abbott of Texas and Tate Reeves of Mississippi to relax restrictions.

"The last thing -- the last thing we need is Neanderthal thinking that in the meantime, everything's fine, take off your mask, forget it. It still matters," Biden said

 

 

THANK YOU TEXAS

 

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-covid-deaths-biden-mask-mandate

Greg Abbott

@GregAbbott_TX

Today Texas reported: * 0 Covid related deaths--the only time that's happened since data was tracked in March, 2020. * the fewest Covid cases in over 13 months * the lowest 7-day Covid positivity rate ever * the lowest Covid hospitalizations in 11 months. Thanks, Texans!

7:41 PM · May 16, 2021

 

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39 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Negative.  Schools still require masks.  Everywhere else is a free public space, that would be you and your children's choice, not others.

So children under 12 should be put at risk why?  So those who can, but choose not to get a vaccine aren't unencumbered by masks?  Not a good tradeoff IMO.

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30 minutes ago, matuski said:

There really is no argument or logic for vaccinated people to be limited anymore.

I was speaking about the unvaccinated adults.

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36 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Not true.  For all those things there were laws that were voted on.  You'll never get a vote past American's on mandatory vaccinations.

Most of those laws were not voted on, they were passed through the legislative process. Just like how every state has some sort of mandatory vaccinations written into law

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31 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Not true.  For all those things there were laws that were voted on.  You'll never get a vote past American's on mandatory vaccinations. (A)

Those are silly examples anyway.  1) It's a public health issue not a vehicularly safety issue. (B) These laws would be akin to outlawing sugar, or fast food, or smoking.  At most it turns into a tax grab. 2) You don't wear a seat belt on a motorcycle (C)  and there isn't a safety standard's organization for motorcycle helmets in the laws.  There are a ton of motorcycle helmets that are more of a hat that looks like a helmet as not to get pulled over, because there isn't proper regulations. (D)

hold on a min...

(A) I neve said anything about mandatory vaccinations.  I said mask mandates and closures, but I would include capacity limitations, social distancing mandates, etc.  That being said, what is the difference between mandatory polio vaccinations and COVID vaccinations?

(B) what's the difference between public health and vehicularly safety?  My general point is we already have laws on the books to regulate personal safety.  Virus mitigation, IMO, falls under that same umbrella.  This is precedent for the State to impose public health measures.

(C) you say my examples are silly, but cite seat belts on a motorcycle?

(D) If true, I would agree we need better regulations WRT motorcycle helmets.

  

 

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2 minutes ago, moleculo said:

hold on a min...

(A) I neve said anything about mandatory vaccinations.  I said mask mandates and closures, but I would include capacity limitations, social distancing mandates, etc.  That being said, what is the difference between mandatory polio vaccinations and COVID vaccinations?

(B) what's the difference between public health and vehicularly safety?  My general point is we already have laws on the books to regulate personal safety.  Virus mitigation, IMO, falls under that same umbrella.  This is precedent for the State to impose public health measures.

(C) you say my examples are silly, but cite seat belts on a motorcycle?

(D) If true, I would agree we need better regulations WRT motorcycle helmets.

  

 

Now talk to me about car seats for kids...

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

So children under 12 should be put at risk why?  So those who can, but choose not to get a vaccine aren't unencumbered by masks?  Not a good tradeoff IMO.

You're free to keep your kid in a bubble if you want.  Most kids get sick as their immune system develops and it learns to develop it's own ant-bodies.  The rest of us will open up and you can stay home if you want.  It's over.  

Edited by tonydead
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52 minutes ago, the moops said:

Most of those laws were not voted on, they were passed through the legislative process. Just like how every state has some sort of mandatory vaccinations written into law

There he is!

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31 minutes ago, tonydead said:

You're free to keep your kid in a bubble if you want.  Most kids get sick as their immune system develops and it learns to develop it's own ant-bodies.  The rest of us will open up and you can stay home if you want.  It's over.  

Like a thorax?

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34 minutes ago, tonydead said:

You're free to keep your kid in a bubble if you want.  Most kids get sick as their immune system develops and it learns to develop it's own ant-bodies.  The rest of us will open up and you can stay home if you want.  It's over.  

Amazing how 14 months have gone by and so many people haven't grasped the concept of a novel virus

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FWIW, I see no reason to NOT inconvenience those that choose not to get a vaccine that is available to them until everyone has an opportunity to get vaccinated.

Don't like the mask, get the jab.

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