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Government Response To The Coronavirus


James Daulton

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1 minute ago, Rich Conway said:

Personally, I would far prefer we allow vaccinated people to go maskless and require proof of vaccination than simply continuing to force masks on all (because the unvaccinated will lie).  That would create a much stronger incentive to get vaccinated and would be better for everyone's health.

How would that be possible in stores?

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I have been saying for months now they should incentivize people to get vaccinated by allowing them not wear masks anymore. Several people on these very boards said "no, its too early" and "how would you enforce it?"

Now these same people are saying we should incentivize people to get vaccinated by allowing them not wear masks anymore and I am asking "how would you enforce it in a store?"

The theory was good when I said it but I agree in practicality it is impossible to enforce in a store. I think the CDC just made things simpler which IMO is the right message. The incentive is now gone but the risk is very low to most people in stores when 40% of adults are vaccinated and the one's who aren't may or may not be wearing masks.

I think it was the right move. 

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Just now, Rich Conway said:

Stick a person at the entrance?  Costco, BJ's, Walmart, etc. have people there handing out anti-bacteria wipes anyway.

So every single store now needs to pay for security. Yeah that should go over well.

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3 minutes ago, jobarules said:

So every single store now needs to pay for security. Yeah that should go over well.

Would be great for Walmart.  Greeters could double as gestapo agents.

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3 hours ago, supermike80 said:

I have never heard of this, ever.   But I let him have that one because I have only been to Mexico and Canada as recently as the last couple years.

As I mentioned, I have NEVER ever ever ever been asked about my vaccination status for anything.

Well you obviously don't travel to Zambia very often!

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4 hours ago, Rich Conway said:

I'm not harassing or punishing anyone.  I'm suggesting exactly what I wrote above.  Those making decisions that "vaccinated people can go maskless but we won't ask for proof" are making stupid decisions and I will refuse to support them with my dollars or votes.

This assumes that the cloth masks were actually accomplishing something meaningful. 

 

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1 minute ago, parasaurolophus said:

This assumes that the cloth masks were actually accomplishing something meaningful. 

 

Not only that but people who have previously had Covid have antibodies and are immunized as well, but they don't have papers to prove it. 

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5 minutes ago, John123 said:

Not only that but people who have previously had Covid have antibodies and are immunized as well, but they don't have papers to prove it. 

Get the jab, it can only help you.  Antibodies through vaccination provide better and lasting protection than natural virus exposure and infection.

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20 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

Personally, I would far prefer we allow vaccinated people to go maskless and require proof of vaccination than simply continuing to force masks on all (because the unvaccinated will lie).  That would create a much stronger incentive to get vaccinated and would be better for everyone's health.

I'm good with this if the logistics worked out and it didn't require a financial burden on companies.  But ignoring that - what are your thoughts on when this would be lifted or are you suggesting this would be a permanent thing?  What I struggle with for myself and with this line of thinking is when will it end?  Is it a cases per day thing?  A certain % of the population being vaccinated?  If % of population - what area, total U.S., by state? 

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2 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Get the jab, it can only help you.  Antibodies through vaccination provide better and lasting protection than natural virus exposure and infection.

As noted above, I have gotten the jab.  I get the second on on Sunday.  But this has nothing to do with me.  Your second assertion has no basis.  Do you have a credible link to studies that indicate anything you've just asserted?

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2 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I'm good with this if the logistics worked out and it didn't require a financial burden on companies.  But ignoring that - what are your thoughts on when this would be lifted or are you suggesting this would be a permanent thing?  What I struggle with for myself and with this line of thinking is when will it end?  Is it a cases per day thing?  A certain % of the population being vaccinated?  If % of population - what area, total U.S., by state? 

What about until vaccines are available to 95% of the population?

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2 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I'm good with this if the logistics worked out and it didn't require a financial burden on companies.  But ignoring that - what are your thoughts on when this would be lifted or are you suggesting this would be a permanent thing?  What I struggle with for myself and with this line of thinking is when will it end?  Is it a cases per day thing?  A certain % of the population being vaccinated?  If % of population - what area, total U.S., by state? 

And, assuming it's "successful", what's to prevent someone from saying "Hey we should do this with the flu vaccine too", and then others.  Soon I'm going to be carrying around my entire medical record and showing it to every minimum wage greeter at every store I want to purchase from.  Thank god for Amazon.

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2 minutes ago, John123 said:

As noted above, I have gotten the jab.  I get the second on on Sunday.  But this has nothing to do with me.  Your second assertion has no basis.  Do you have a credible link to studies that indicate anything you've just asserted?

Here's a preprint of an article about that: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.15.440089v2.full.pdf

"Antibody titers determined by serial dilution of the specimens were used to accurately compare antibody levels in these samples. mRNA vaccinees after the boost have higher Ab titers (up to 10 times higher) than convalescent plasmas from donors who recovered from natural infection."

The "boost" above is the 2nd shot of Pfizer or Moderna.

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6 minutes ago, John123 said:

And, assuming it's "successful", what's to prevent someone from saying "Hey we should do this with the flu vaccine too", and then others.  Soon I'm going to be carrying around my entire medical record and showing it to every minimum wage greeter at every store I want to purchase from.  Thank god for Amazon.

Or we could just take it on an epidemic by epidemic basis and choose when and where and for how long we ask for proof of vaccination in order to act "normal" in public.

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5 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Here's a preprint of an article about that: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.15.440089v2.full.pdf

"Antibody titers determined by serial dilution of the specimens were used to accurately compare antibody levels in these samples. mRNA vaccinees after the boost have higher Ab titers (up to 10 times higher) than convalescent plasmas from donors who recovered from natural infection."

The "boost" above is the 2nd shot of Pfizer or Moderna.

I tried to follow that but I'm gonna be honest.  In the interest of not wanting misinterpret what they said I'm just gonna say I'm not a scientist and it's a bit beyond me.  I'll concede that the vaccine probably offers higher levels of antibodies than natural exposure.  But that's not what I'm getting at.  Is the natural exposure adequate to consider that person protected?  I've not heard of significant people who previously had Covid getting it again, and when they do the symptoms are less or non-existent.  Unless you can show that those people shouldn't be considered protected, I think they should be treated equally to a vaccinated person. 

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28 minutes ago, jobarules said:

I have been saying for months now they should incentivize people to get vaccinated by allowing them not wear masks anymore. Several people on these very boards said "no, its too early" and "how would you enforce it?"

Now these same people are saying we should incentivize people to get vaccinated by allowing them not wear masks anymore and I am asking "how would you enforce it in a store?"

The theory was good when I said it but I agree in practicality it is impossible to enforce in a store. I think the CDC just made things simpler which IMO is the right message. The incentive is now gone but the risk is very low to most people in stores when 40% of adults are vaccinated and the one's who aren't may or may not be wearing masks.

I think it was the right move. 

In an ideal world, this would work great. But we live in a world where every loophole will be exploited. As soon as people see others going maskless and not being stopped, they will do the same. Some places might stop them and ask for proof of vaccination but most won’t, just like most don’t actively enforce masks mandates.

I’ve said it before, the vaccine is the easy way out. Everyone who wants COVID to just be over or are tired of all the precautions should be all about getting the shot, but they aren’t.

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15 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Or we could just take it on an epidemic by epidemic basis and choose when and where and for how long we ask for proof of vaccination in order to act "normal" in public.

Negative.  We're going back to normal.  Your children should be wearing masks until they are vaccinated according to the CDC recommendations.  

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27 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:
34 minutes ago, John123 said:

And, assuming it's "successful", what's to prevent someone from saying "Hey we should do this with the flu vaccine too", and then others.

Or we could just take it on an epidemic by epidemic basis and choose when and where and for how long we ask for proof of vaccination in order to act "normal" in public.

This is a good point. There's no need for applying one rule to all diseases for the mere sake of consistency. It's OK and acceptable for their to be different rules to address different threats. There is no slippery slope.

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27 minutes ago, John123 said:

I tried to follow that but I'm gonna be honest.  In the interest of not wanting misinterpret what they said I'm just gonna say I'm not a scientist and it's a bit beyond me.  I'll concede that the vaccine probably offers higher levels of antibodies than natural exposure.  But that's not what I'm getting at.  Is the natural exposure adequate to consider that person protected?  I've not heard of significant people who previously had Covid getting it again, and when they do the symptoms are less or non-existent.  Unless you can show that those people shouldn't be considered protected, I think they should be treated equally to a vaccinated person. 

Ok, then how about those that have been infected will need to get an antibody test proving that.  That will be accepted along with a vaccine card for "return to normal".  Everyone else has to wait until 95% of the population has had a chance to get a vaccine.

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13 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Negative.  We're going back to normal.  Your children should be wearing masks until they are vaccinated according to the CDC recommendations.  

Even for those that are unvaccinated?

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What do you guys think is the likelihood of a surge in cases this summer concentrated in low-vaccination rate areas like the Southeast?  I obviously don’t want it to happen but I wonder if it would be enough to nudge more of the vaccine-hesitant to get the shot.

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Just now, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

What do you guys think is the likelihood of a surge in cases this summer concentrated in low-vaccination rate areas like the Southeast?  I obviously don’t want it to happen but I wonder if it would be enough to nudge more of the vaccine-hesitant to get the shot.

Not an epidemic modeler here, but my gut says it's possible but not probable.  I think that you'll see ongoing case rates and hospitalizations that are statistically higher in locations with low vaccination rates than in places with higher vaccination rates.  But I doubt there will be major surges in cases, as there are unlikely to be locations with enough density to surge and still have vaccination rates under 40%.  That 40% will be enough to moderate the huge blow ups.

I hope. 

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Just now, tonydead said:

They should follow the CDC guidance just like I'm sure you will have your children do.  Let's open up!

I hope they do.  I fear that they won't and we have no means to hold them accountable or even verify if they do not.

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6 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

What do you guys think is the likelihood of a surge in cases this summer concentrated in low-vaccination rate areas like the Southeast?  I obviously don’t want it to happen but I wonder if it would be enough to nudge more of the vaccine-hesitant to get the shot.

You already know the answer to the bolded.

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1 minute ago, The Z Machine said:

I hope they do.  I fear that they won't and we have no means to hold them accountable or even verify if they do not.

You need to figure out how to live with that fear you have. It's not everyone else's problem like you make it out to be.

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Just now, tonydead said:

You need to figure out how to live with that fear you have. It's not everyone else's problem like you make it out to be.

Cool.  Head in the sand is a great way to live.  

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4 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Not an epidemic modeler here, but my gut says it's possible but not probable.  I think that you'll see ongoing case rates and hospitalizations that are statistically higher in locations with low vaccination rates than in places with higher vaccination rates.  But I doubt there will be major surges in cases, as there are unlikely to be locations with enough density to surge and still have vaccination rates under 40%.  That 40% will be enough to moderate the huge blow ups.

I hope. 

Also, those regions have a bunch of people who acquired immunity the hard way.  

Definitely more people should get vaccinated, but I look at how things went in Texas after a somewhat-premature reopening and it makes me skeptical about seeing another surge.  For the record or future reference or whatever, I am okay with reinstituting mitigation measures if they prove necessary down the road.

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2 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Cool.  Head in the sand is a great way to live.  

Again, it's an irrational fear you have that I don't.  That's not my problem, no sand required. 

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34 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Ok, then how about those that have been infected will need to get an antibody test proving that.  That will be accepted along with a vaccine card for "return to normal".  Everyone else has to wait until 95% of the population has had a chance to get a vaccine.

Pretty sure 95% of the population has had a chance to get a vaccine at this point.  They're taking walk-ins around here now, and if you've read my previous posts, I was having a hard time finding a vaccine not too long ago. 

Either way, numbers are way down and continuing their downward trend.  I see no reason not to open things up and remove most if not all restrictions. 

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3 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:
11 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Not an epidemic modeler here, but my gut says [summer surges are] possible but not probable.  I think that you'll see ongoing case rates and hospitalizations that are statistically higher in locations with low vaccination rates than in places with higher vaccination rates.  But I doubt there will be major surges in cases, as there are unlikely to be locations with enough density to surge and still have vaccination rates under 40%.  That 40% will be enough to moderate the huge blow ups.

I hope. 

Also, those regions have a bunch of people who acquired immunity the hard way. 

I bet a lot acquired immunity the hard way and never knew it, to boot. Still believe that the true number of cases is significantly higher than those detected by testing.

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3 minutes ago, John123 said:

Pretty sure 95% of the population has had a chance to get a vaccine at this point.  They're taking walk-ins around here now, and if you've read my previous posts, I was having a hard time finding a vaccine not too long ago. 

Either way, numbers are way down and continuing their downward trend.  I see no reason not to open things up and remove most if not all restrictions. 

When children under 12 can't get a vaccine, it's not 95%.  Pretty sure that was Z's point.

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4 minutes ago, John123 said:

Pretty sure 95% of the population has had a chance to get a vaccine at this point.  They're taking walk-ins around here now, and if you've read my previous posts, I was having a hard time finding a vaccine not too long ago. 

Either way, numbers are way down and continuing their downward trend.  I see no reason not to open things up and remove most if not all restrictions. 

Maybe 95% of the adult population...

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Just now, Rich Conway said:

When children under 12 can't get a vaccine, it's not 95%.  Pretty sure that was Z's point.

It's more like 85%.  That extra 10% ain't going to mean much when it's the least vulnerable demographic.  

We're splitting hairs because of some very irrational fears.  

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51 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

What do you guys think is the likelihood of a surge in cases this summer concentrated in low-vaccination rate areas like the Southeast?  I obviously don’t want it to happen but I wonder if it would be enough to nudge more of the vaccine-hesitant to get the shot.

I would say that it’s likely that we see a resurgence in cases but not the corresponding hospitalizations and deaths.

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6 hours ago, The Z Machine said:

I think insufficient research has been done on long COVID in children, which seems to be the greatest risk for that group since their acute illness rates are low.

Here's another quote from this website: https://theconversation.com/long-covid-in-children-what-parents-and-teachers-need-to-know-156185

"The Office for National Statistics estimates that around 13%-15% of children with COVID-19 have symptoms that last for more than five weeks. In Italy, a recent preprint (an early piece of research yet to be reviewed by other scientists) suggests that more than half of children with COVID-19 have at least one persisting symptom over 17 weeks after being diagnosed. Among them, 43% reported being impaired by their symptoms during daily activities."

That doesn't sound like a common cold to me.

This is based on survey data with symptoms including any of the following:

fatigue, cough, headache, loss of taste, loss of smell, myalgia, sore throat, fever, shortness of breath, nausea/vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal pain

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46 minutes ago, TakiToki said:

This is based on survey data with symptoms including any of the following:

fatigue, cough, headache, loss of taste, loss of smell, myalgia, sore throat, fever, shortness of breath, nausea/vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal pain

Wait til he reads the placebo data for the vaccines :)

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3 hours ago, The Z Machine said:

What about until vaccines are available to 95% of the population?

Globally?  That’s going to take a while.  If just U.S. then we are still susceptible to variants.  I think I’d want to know the variant likelihood given those scenarios although I imagine that’s really complex to calculate.

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2 hours ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

What do you guys think is the likelihood of a surge in cases this summer concentrated in low-vaccination rate areas like the Southeast?  I obviously don’t want it to happen but I wonder if it would be enough to nudge more of the vaccine-hesitant to get the shot.

I think it may be less likely than we would think due to no school and hot weather.  I could be off base but I think the next meaningful surge would be when school starts back unless the the vaccination numbers go way up down here. 

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8 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I think it may be less likely than we would think due to no school and hot weather.  I could be off base but I think the next meaningful surge would be when school starts back unless the the vaccination numbers go way up down here. 

Southern states are more likely to surge in the summer, it’s too hot to be outside.

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4 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Southern states are more likely to surge in the summer, it’s too hot to be outside.

Possibly, but I don’t think so, because of the school element and I’m convinced our number of cases is fairly low compared with the actual number.   And the reason I think that is the same reason our vaccination rates are low.  There’s a lot of skepticism and hesitancy around Covid with a large segment of people down here.  Krista posted an interesting NYT’s piece about those saying they won’t get vaccinated right now.  These same people won’t go to the doctor and won’t get tested to even see if they have the virus.  I know people who didn’t get their kids tested so they wouldn’t have to miss school and be quarantined, even if they knew they were exposed or in some cases sick.

Another factor down here is we were already essentially opened back up and many people not wearing masks.  I guess I’m just struggling to see what will be bringing a surge of cases on down here.  I very well could be wrong but if I had to bet money on it I’d say our cases stay relatively flat or go down until school starts back.

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Just to give a view from other countries.  I just finished a call with some folks in India and Singapore.  The person in Singapore said they had a spike in cases and are back under partial lock-down (can only go out to get groceries and you have to double mask even to go to the park and exercise).  Their cases are around 25-35 daily from what I can tell.  Their population is a tad under 6M and they've had 61k cases and only 31 deaths total.  They are taking this #### super serious.  India by contrast is still raging - 300k cases and 4k deaths on average for a while now.  It does appear they maybe hit a summit on their latest surge but they are nowhere close to being down with this thing and vaccination rollout over there is not nearly good enough yet.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Doug B said:

Is this an accurate summary of Z's point?

His leading premise was "what about my 8 year olds".

Then we debated.

Then he went with the selfish angle.  Ironic given his leading position.

Seems more than the good faith I got from the other end, correct?

Edited by matuski
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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

This assumes that the cloth masks were actually accomplishing something meaningful. 

 

Right. 

Or the legit masks worn incorrectly.

Or the legit masks that don't fit.

Edited by matuski
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10 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

Just to give a view from other countries.  I just finished a call with some folks in India and Singapore.  The person in Singapore said they had a spike in cases and are back under partial lock-down (can only go out to get groceries and you have to double mask even to go to the park and exercise).  Their cases are around 25-35 daily from what I can tell.  Their population is a tad under 6M and they've had 61k cases and only 31 deaths total.  They are taking this #### super serious.  India by contrast is still raging - 300k cases and 4k deaths on average for a while now.  It does appear they maybe hit a summit on their latest surge but they are nowhere close to being down with this thing and vaccination rollout over there is not nearly good enough yet.

I follow some restaurants and bars following a trip to Singapore a few years ago. They are going on maybe their 5th lockdown and they all take it stride. The bars go down to take out/delivery only. No complaining from the businesses or customers. No questioning if it’s excessive based on the number of cases or government overreach, they just do it. Maybe the government is giving significant support. But just amazing seeing the cultural differences compared to here.

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3 hours ago, TakiToki said:

This is based on survey data with symptoms including any of the following:

fatigue, cough, headache, loss of taste, loss of smell, myalgia, sore throat, fever, shortness of breath, nausea/vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal pain

Hey man, lets make good faith points in this thread.

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20 minutes ago, matuski said:

His leading premise was "what about my 8 year olds".

Then we debated.

Then he went with the selfish angle.  Ironic given his leading position.

Seems more than the good faith I got from the other end, correct?

Do you think I was arguing in bad faith?

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