What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Government Response To The Coronavirus (6 Viewers)

Status
Not open for further replies.
:confused:

I read last night that the new data was collected in Massachusetts. Let me see if I can scare up the link.

EDIT - Here it is (ABC News, 7/29/2021):

But within weeks, health officials seemed to be on to something much bigger. The outbreak quickly grew to the hundreds and most of them appeared to be vaccinated.

As of Thursday, 882 people were tied to the Provincetown outbreak. Among those living in Massachusetts, 74% of them were fully immunized, yet officials said the vast majority were also reporting symptoms. Seven people were reported hospitalized.

The initial findings of the investigation led by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, in conjunction with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, seemed to have huge implications.


I guess sometimes both are true.  Here is the link to the CDC document (it's a pretty powerpoint, so easy to consume).

They reference an India study, which I assume is the rejected one, and the MA outbreak.  

I'm still reading through it, but page 19 seems to have the salient facts for vaccinated people.  Looks like more breakthrough cases, but hospitalizations and deaths are essentially static from the ancestral strain.  No doubt for unvaccinated folks that the outcomes will be worse just due to increased transmissibility.  The page 20 transmissibility chart is pretty interesting.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I guess sometimes both are true.  Here is the link to the CDC document (it's a pretty powerpoint, so easy to consume).

They reference an India study, which I assume is the rejected one, and the MA outbreak.  
Makes sense. There is value in the data collected from a vaccine-naive population. Without that ... you would be less sure that being vaccinated made a difference.

 
This is generally true, but the answer is also "it depends".  With a virus like this the answer is more nuanced than with a virus like ebola.  In this case, all it takes is a random mutation to the spike protein that renders our vaccines useless.  The more opportunity it has to spread and mutate, the higher that chance becomes.  In March of last year it was pretty clear to me that this would be a virus we have in our world for many years to come and we'd need to treat for it periodically.  What wasn't clear was what "periodically" meant.  That's becoming clearer as we go.  

To your first sentence, I think it's much more accurate to say that getting our population vaccinated will make it infinitely more difficult for meaningful variants to emerge.  We have, literally, billions of opportunities for this virus to mutate.  If we knock that down to a few hundred million, the virus isn't going to be nearly as successful.  
Not to be pedantic, but there’s a heck of a lot more than that:

We estimate that each infected person carries 109–1011 virions during peak infection,
Those are exponents, so each person peaks at a billion to 100 billion viruses, with many more replication cycles (and mutation chances) over the course of infection. Fortunately, our immune system also works in big numbers:

We combine our estimates with the available literature on host immune response and viral mutation rates to demonstrate how antibodies markedly outnumber the spike proteins and the genetic diversity of virions in an infected host covers all possible single nucleotide substitutions.

 
Man, I hope not ... though I well understand the pessimism.

I think it's still worth taking the shot to publicly communicate that the current vaccines (esp. the mRNA ones) are effective prophylaxis against severe illness.
People aren't on the fence anymore.  Those who claim to are ALL making inconsistent arguments.  Every single one of them that I've seen and interacted with are citing debunked narratives as their reasons for their alleged "concerns".  NONE of these people are interested in learning anything outside of what they were told a year ago.

None of this is new though right?  There was a time where flat earthers were shouting at the science INSISTING the earth was indeed flat.  Centuries later, there are STILL people insisting on it being flat.  

This notion that because we've learned more and thus invalidates things from a day or a week or a month or a year ago is absurd.  This isn't math where once we discovered 2+2=4 it's the same for ever and ever.

 
This has happened in other places, too. Even in India, with a low percentage of vaccinated people ... Delta lingered longer in India than other places (e.g. the UK), but still died down after a few months.
Which is partially why I think the latest CDC news may be overblown.

 
Yet emerging patterns appear to suggest the opposite -- that infection driven immunity lasts longer than vaccine-induced immunity.    Of course, the only way to get infection-driven immunity is to get COVID (which is why this entire sub-debate is dumb).
Which patterns? I can dig it up again, but I’m aware of at least one population study in Denmark which showed breakthrough infections occur at a much higher rate in people previously infected than we’re seeing with the mRNA vaccines.

 
This has happened in other places, too. Even in India, with a low percentage of vaccinated people ... Delta lingered longer in India than other places (e.g. the UK), but still died down after a few months.
Which is partially why I think the latest CDC news may be overblown.
The hitch is that India's post-Delta case rate is still triple what it was pre-COVID.

The UK is probably a better comparison to the US due to similar vaccination rates ... but the UK is not finished with the downside of their Delta spike yet. Not yet clear if they'll settle back down to pre-Delta levels or not.

 
Yet emerging patterns appear to suggest the opposite -- that infection driven immunity lasts longer than vaccine-induced immunity.    Of course, the only way to get infection-driven immunity is to get COVID (which is why this entire sub-debate is dumb).
Which patterns? I can dig it up again, but I’m aware of at least one population study in Denmark which showed breakthrough infections occur at a much higher rate in people previously infected than we’re seeing with the mRNA vaccines.
Delta is confounding things.

It seemed pretty clear that with pre-Delta variants, vaccine protection was more effective than natural immunity. With Delta specifically? I haven't yet seen data that puts one over the other.

 
I guess sometimes both are true.  Here is the link to the CDC document (it's a pretty powerpoint, so easy to consume).

They reference an India study, which I assume is the rejected one, and the MA outbreak.  

I'm still reading through it, but page 19 seems to have the salient facts for vaccinated people.  Looks like more breakthrough cases, but hospitalizations and deaths are essentially static from the ancestral strain.  No doubt for unvaccinated folks that the outcomes will be worse just due to increased transmissibility.  The page 20 transmissibility chart is pretty interesting.
That link is to an advice column?

 
Interesting comments from Sen. Rand Paul here and here (start at 2:10).

He references a 92,000 patient study in Scotland/England, which is what I presume some of the stats in the CDC pg.19 chart.  I don't necessarily agree that the variant itself is less deadly, as we've gotten better at treatment, but based on that study the predominant delta variant has definitely resulted in fewer deaths than the sick population last year.  

If you don't want to listen, the death rate in that study under 50 in the vaccinated population was 0 of 40,000.  Among the unvaccinated 6 of 52,000 died.

 
Delta is confounding things.

It seemed pretty clear that with pre-Delta variants, vaccine protection was more effective than natural immunity. With Delta specifically? I haven't yet seen data that puts one over the other.
Way too early to say wrt delta, though one could probably make an educated guess based on how many of delta’s mutations occur in the receptor binding domain targeted by the vaccines.

Answer: 3...but the vaccines still seem to work pretty well.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
If you go outside and jump as high as you can, how do you know you will come back down? 

You think you will because of gravity, and because you have in the past, but how do you really know? Short of a time machine, you don't know what will happen.


what re you arguing ? that the laws of gravity are not facts or that what Biden and the CNC saying are as factual as the laws of gravity or ?

its amazing to me how easily people accept as fact the things they want to believe - I'm guilty of it too. 

 
This will be a tricky one for DeSantis.  The Mouse is very powerful - he’ll have sound bites and talk a good game to appease his side of the aisle but I don’t see him taking them on in court.
There are many areas simply ignoring DeSantis and just daring him to sue I guess.  This will go down as one of the many policies he spits out that makes a good headline, but ultimately isn't followed through on or has no real teeth in terms of penalty.  We've talked about this a bit in the Florida Politics thread, but that's about where this will go.  Companies, counties and municipalities will find a way to make it uncomfortable for the unvaccinated outside of masks if that's what they feel is necessary.  Look at what cruise lines like Celebrity are doing for instance.  

 
I have no idea what you are talking about.


do not test unvaccinated people - and we will see the numbers go down to zero. If we stop all testing of unvaccinated people, there will be no positive results or any results because we're not testing, right ?

guess what - we're not testing vaccinated people. why ? because (in my opinion) if we did, we'd see as high infection rates, and the fallout from that would be massive

wouldn't it ?

 
do not test unvaccinated people - and we will see the numbers go down to zero. If we stop all testing of unvaccinated people, there will be no positive results or any results because we're not testing, right ?

guess what - we're not testing vaccinated people. why ? because (in my opinion) if we did, we'd see as high infection rates, and the fallout from that would be massive

wouldn't it ?
My FIL just got tested and came back positive.

He had covid back in Feb and is fully vaccinated. So it is what it is and doesn't do much for antibody immunity theory or how effective the vaccine is. 

 
My FIL just got tested and came back positive.

He had covid back in Feb and is fully vaccinated. So it is what it is and doesn't do much for antibody immunity theory or how effective the vaccine is. 
There have been outliers.  Good news is because of the vaccine his symptoms should be less.  Such a huge % of hospital Covid patients are the unvaccinated now so yes, he stands a much better chance because of it.  Prayers are with him.

 
do not test unvaccinated people - and we will see the numbers go down to zero. If we stop all testing of unvaccinated people, there will be no positive results or any results because we're not testing, right ?

guess what - we're not testing vaccinated people. why ? because (in my opinion) if we did, we'd see as high infection rates, and the fallout from that would be massive

wouldn't it ?
Does that impact hospitalizations and deaths?

 
worldometers

There have been outliers.  Good news is because of the vaccine his symptoms should be less.  Such a huge % of hospital Covid patients are the unvaccinated now so yes, he stands a much better chance because of it.  Prayers are with him.
There were peaks in COVID cases in April & July 2020, and there was the winter surge in cases. Each were correlated with big but lagging increase in deaths. There was an April 2021 minisurge in cases, but no corresponding increases in deaths. So far, it seems this latest surge in cases is causing a big surge in hospitalizations, but not a big increase in deaths, but it's early. This is from eyeballing the curves in worldometers

 
worldometers

There were peaks in COVID cases in April & July 2020, and there was the winter surge in cases. Each were correlated with big but lagging increase in deaths. There was an April 2021 minisurge in cases, but no corresponding increases in deaths. So far, it seems this latest surge in cases is causing a big surge in hospitalizations, but not a big increase in deaths, but it's early. This is from eyeballing the curves in worldometers


Yeah - that's the good news.  It appears vaccines are helping anyone who does get it greatly and for others we have gotten better at treating it.  I was never really scared that I would get Covid and die but felt like it was a possible outcome until I got vaccinated.  Now, no concerns at all but I'm still leery of what long-haul Covid means for someone who gets a bad case.

 
Unvaxxed % should have been provided for context. Looks like 14 millionish infections over same time frame so maybe 9%? 
Oh, no doubt.  Just goes to show what excrement journalism you get when it comes to reporting statistics, even from a huge outfit like NBC.

Their statistics guy (the one who is awesome and does voting night on MSNBC) is busy analyzing USA gold medal chances.  

 
Along these lines, has anyone heard anything about Novavax EUA timeline?  Every now and then you see some report about how great the data look, but it is my understanding they haven't even filed yet?  They talked about third quarter, but if you try to google it you just get a bunch of recycled stories.
I looked into this some more and best I can come up with was a doctor on youtube saying it should be available by the end of August.

I think this is the route I'm most likely to go. 

 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Users who are viewing this thread

Top