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Government Response To The Coronavirus


James Daulton

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1 hour ago, Max Power said:

But are they really less likely to catch covid or not show symptoms? I think we're assuming here, unless there is data out there to show it.

Asymptomatic vaccinated people have zero reason to get tested, but could spread.

There are plenty of variables in play. Vaccinated people who go to large gatherings or partake in bear orgies are more likely to get covid than the unvaxd guy who stays home and plays video games all weekend..

If avoiding bringing covid into the workplace is the main objective, the other variables are just noise and we should all be tested the same imo.


Yes, I think infection rates and data do bear that out. You are at around 79%-88% protected from infection by the MRNA vaccines. Less so from the others. I’m sorry I don’t have an article handy, I read on this a lot, but I’m out right now.

I’m back to getting tested weekly, not because I’m overly concerned about catching this, but I am concerned about unknowingly spreading it to others. I think that’s a good reason for the asymptomatic to get tested, imo.

The unvaccinated are still by far the group that causes the most danger to society. I don’t think you’re going to find many knowledgeable people willing to agree that they need to be treated the same. The risk assessment should be fairly different, imo, but I’m willing to read reasonable arguments. 

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4 hours ago, The Commish said:

There's an interesting shift in the narratives occurring.  Those who were "ignoring" the government because, well, they can think for themselves are now complaining about the jumbled message coming from the government contributing to confusion and frustration.  If you weren't trying to follow before, why are you trying to follow now?

Two things we need to keep in mind.  First, science is not truth.  Science is finding the truth.  When science changes it's opinion, it didn't lie to you.  It learned more.

On the heals of that, here's a pretty good summary of where we're at with this new Delta variant firmly planted in the equation from YLE:

 

I started to type a similar list in the psf vaccine thread that went off the rails, but decided it wasn't worth the hassle.

Your summary is great, but I'll add:

- Yes, vaccines continue to accumulate safety data, which reaffirms the risk of serious vaccine adverse effects is vanishingly small.

- No, there isn't good evidence or biologic plausibility for unforeseen late effects of vaccination which outweigh the risk Covid-19 poses now.

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4 hours ago, supermike80 said:

Remember "believe ALL women" became "believe women"   The left is not honest.   And you can say the right isn't either and that's fine, but I have issues with the righteous left acting like they are the party of virtue.

What about those that "above it all" because they are independents?

(Not talking about me.)

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4 minutes ago, The Football Freak said:


Yes, I think infection rates and data do bear that out. You are at around 79%-88% protected from infection by the MRNA vaccines. Less so from the others. I’m sorry I don’t have an article handy, I read on this a lot, but I’m out right now.

I’m back to getting tested weekly, not because I’m overly concerned about catching this, but I am concerned about unknowingly spreading it to others. I think that’s a good reason for the asymptomatic to get tested, imo.

The unvaccinated are still by far the group that causes the most danger to society. I don’t think you’re going to find many knowledgeable people willing to agree that they need to be treated the same. The risk assessment should be fairly different, imo, but I’m willing to read reasonable arguments. 

I think we're going to see breakthrough case climb steadily over the next couple weeks. Now more people know and acknowledge the possibility of covid breakthrough. 

A lot of the diagnosed breakthrough cases came from asymptomatic people after they were forced to test. The hospital outbreak, the bear orgy, all the athletes...

The Nationals said they had a single case, tested the clubhouse and came back with 11 breakthrough cases.

Prior to this weekend, there wasn't a big push for vacinated people to test and I'd wager those with mild "sinus infection" symptoms didnt go get tested. So we really don't know how easily vaccinated people catch it. That data is incomplete.

We know the vaccines lose effectiveness over time and the delta variant transmits easier, so those numbers are bound to increase.

Unvaccinated are the most at risk surely, but I wont call them a danger to society. People who have had the vaccine are pretty well protected unless they have underlying conditions. They could get covid from the vax'd or unvax'd alike. 

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11 minutes ago, Max Power said:

We know the vaccines lose effectiveness over time and the delta variant transmits easier, so those numbers are bound to increase.

 

Well hold on, we don’t know this yet.  We know that 1 of them, J&J, does. We don’t know that yet about the mRNA vaccines.  

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1 hour ago, parasaurolophus said:

"Thats how science works" is the dumbest thing I keep hearing in all of this. It isnt how science works. Constant changing recos based on small anomalies is not how science works at all. 

Not even freaking close.

There's a rather large (gigantic, I'd argue) difference between "that's how science works" and "learn how science works" which is what I said.  I agree with what you say here, but I don't see the delta variant as a "small anomaly" either.

Edited by The Commish
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27 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

Well hold on, we don’t know this yet.  We know that 1 of them, J&J, does. We don’t know that yet about the mRNA vaccines.  


I would say it was anticipated from the get-go that the mRNA vaccines would lose effectiveness over time. The questions are:

1) How long before we start being able to pick out this decline in the actual data, and
2) How far of a decline? Back down to 0, or down to a helpful number (Say, it settles in at an average of 40-50%. Or even better.)?
3) How will memory B cells and memory T cells play into Question 2 above?
4) Will the effectiveness decline trend with age? Will elderly people need more frequent boosters than, say, college-age adults who can probably get away with winging it for a few years (or longer?) between boosters.

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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sen-lindsey-graham-tests-positive-covid-despite-vaccinated

Sen. Lindsey Graham tests positive for COVID-19, despite being vaccinated

 

Graham's infection comes on the heels of updated Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance urging even fully vaccinated people to return to wearing masks indoors in areas of high coronavirus transmission, citing the surge of the highly contagious delta variant. Recent analysis has shown that so-called "breakthrough" cases of COVID-19, with mild or no symptoms, still remain rare.

 

rare

(of an event, situation, or condition) not occurring very often.

not occurring very often ... and yet I can quick google and find them everywhere from NFL camps to MLB to the Olympics to local cities and elected officials to family members

hmmmm

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2 hours ago, Max Power said:

For the small % of breakthrough cases there are, I feel like I know of or have heard of a disproportionate amount the folks. 

I think cdc is only counting hospitalizations or deaths as breakthrough. It's definitely a lot higher than that. 

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17 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sen-lindsey-graham-tests-positive-covid-despite-vaccinated

Sen. Lindsey Graham tests positive for COVID-19, despite being vaccinated

 

Graham's infection comes on the heels of updated Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance urging even fully vaccinated people to return to wearing masks indoors in areas of high coronavirus transmission, citing the surge of the highly contagious delta variant. Recent analysis has shown that so-called "breakthrough" cases of COVID-19, with mild or no symptoms, still remain rare.

 

rare

(of an event, situation, or condition) not occurring very often.

not occurring very often ... and yet I can quick google and find them everywhere from NFL camps to MLB to the Olympics to local cities and elected officials to family members

hmmmm

It’s definitely happening more than people expected. My wife’s family had 3 people who were vaccinated test positive after they attended the celebrity golf tournament in South Lake Tahoe. One actually ended up in the hospital but quickly recovered and was released. The other two had no symptoms.  It definitely had me questioning some things, but I also told myself that because the whole family is vaccinated (at least those old enough to be eligible) there is a very high likelihood that everyone in the family who tests positive will have been vaccinated.

Contrast this to the situation I posted in the FFA about my neighbors. They had a bbq with 19 people in their backyard. 10 adults, 4 teenagers, and 5 kids under 7. Six of the adults were not vaccinated, and neither were the teenagers. All 6 of the unvaccinated adults, and all 4 unvaccinated teenagers tested positive. So far, one entire family is in the hospital (2 adults & 2 teenagers) and the other 6 who tested positive are not feeling well. Hopefully it doesn’t progress beyond that. The mom in the hospital is apparently not doing very well and her husband is nervous she isn’t going to make it. The young kids and vaccinated adults have been getting tested every day and so far are negative.

It is easy to cherry pick anecdotes, but I have a hard time believing that my neighbors’ situation was just dumb luck. It shows me the vaccine works, even though it’s not perfect. 

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5 minutes ago, jobarules said:

I think cdc is only counting hospitalizations or deaths as breakthrough. It's definitely a lot higher than that. 

You are right.  From the CDC...

As of May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported vaccine breakthrough cases to focus on identifying and investigating only hospitalized or fatal cases due to any cause. This shift will help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance.

 

Seems like we're going to ignore a significant data set here. Understanding infection rate in the vaccinated may be important to gauge if boosters are required. 

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11 minutes ago, Max Power said:

You are right.  From the CDC...

As of May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported vaccine breakthrough cases to focus on identifying and investigating only hospitalized or fatal cases due to any cause. This shift will help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance.

 

Seems like we're going to ignore a significant data set here. Understanding infection rate in the vaccinated may be important to gauge if boosters are required. 

I don’t disagree with you, but it may be difficult to track without extensive, constant testing. It’s a small sample size, but of the three breakthrough cases in my family, two of them had zero symptoms. 

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1 hour ago, Stealthycat said:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sen-lindsey-graham-tests-positive-covid-despite-vaccinated

Sen. Lindsey Graham tests positive for COVID-19, despite being vaccinated

 

Graham's infection comes on the heels of updated Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance urging even fully vaccinated people to return to wearing masks indoors in areas of high coronavirus transmission, citing the surge of the highly contagious delta variant. Recent analysis has shown that so-called "breakthrough" cases of COVID-19, with mild or no symptoms, still remain rare.

 

rare

(of an event, situation, or condition) not occurring very often.

not occurring very often ... and yet I can quick google and find them everywhere from NFL camps to MLB to the Olympics to local cities and elected officials to family members

hmmmm

165 million people in the US have been vaxed :lol:

 

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4 hours ago, Max Power said:

I think we're going to see breakthrough case climb steadily over the next couple weeks. Now more people know and acknowledge the possibility of covid breakthrough. 

A lot of the diagnosed breakthrough cases came from asymptomatic people after they were forced to test. The hospital outbreak, the bear orgy, all the athletes...

The Nationals said they had a single case, tested the clubhouse and came back with 11 breakthrough cases.

Prior to this weekend, there wasn't a big push for vacinated people to test and I'd wager those with mild "sinus infection" symptoms didnt go get tested. So we really don't know how easily vaccinated people catch it. That data is incomplete.

We know the vaccines lose effectiveness over time and the delta variant transmits easier, so those numbers are bound to increase.

Unvaccinated are the most at risk surely, but I wont call them a danger to society. People who have had the vaccine are pretty well protected unless they have underlying conditions. They could get covid from the vax'd or unvax'd alike. 

That is fair and, obviously, the situation is changing drastically. I don’t think the infection rates will end up the same, but this is novel. As we talk, to be fair, I would guess it will end up between where we both think the rates will end up. There is too much anecdotal evidence, as you’ve pointed out. Man, this freaking sucks… 

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7 hours ago, crackattack said:

I won't get the shot. Not because I'm anti-vaxx. I've had covid twice now. I've got antibodies. I don't think i need it anymore.

Sounds like your antibodies are working well if you've had it twice...... 🤔

In seriousness, hope you aren't having any lingering effects.

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6 hours ago, Rubiobot said:

Sure, vaccinated people can and will get the virus, especially the highly contagious delta variant. But they are MUCH less likely to be hospitalized or die from it. The vast majority of hospitalizations and deaths are from unvaccinated people. This is far and away the most important reason to get the vaccine.

 

And yet it's amazing that we keep having to repeat this and share the stats over and over and over and over

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3 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sen-lindsey-graham-tests-positive-covid-despite-vaccinated

Sen. Lindsey Graham tests positive for COVID-19, despite being vaccinated

 

Graham's infection comes on the heels of updated Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance urging even fully vaccinated people to return to wearing masks indoors in areas of high coronavirus transmission, citing the surge of the highly contagious delta variant. Recent analysis has shown that so-called "breakthrough" cases of COVID-19, with mild or no symptoms, still remain rare.

 

rare

(of an event, situation, or condition) not occurring very often.

not occurring very often ... and yet I can quick google and find them everywhere from NFL camps to MLB to the Olympics to local cities and elected officials to family members

hmmmm

Google "denominator"

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2 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:
4 minutes ago, Doug B said:

This is a family board, Keaton. 

I mean, it's not like I was referencing the Provincetown situation......


I'm sure those guys had plenty of domin ... denominat ... you know.

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8 hours ago, Dickies said:

As the husband of a teacher I find this post deeply offensive.  My wife put in WAY more time this past school year than she normally does in order to redo all of her lessons in order to make them presentable to her students remotely.  The entire year was a total ####show as neither the district nor the teachers were in familiar territory.  The parents only see that their kids are on with the teacher for 3 hours per day, so they assume the teachers are just taking the rest of the day off when they aren't on with the kids.  This couldn't be more wrong.  Every day when she got off of her classroom meeting, she would spend the rest of her day reworking her lessons for the next day, often times working well past 6:00PM.  I know a lot of teachers, and I don't know of a single one that wants to repeat last year.  They all want to return to the classroom.

We don't hear these same complaints about people in other professions that have shifted to working from home.

 

We all want to return to the classroom....as long as it is "safe" and all of or demands are met. 

 

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52 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Sounds like your antibodies are working well if you've had it twice...... 🤔

In seriousness, hope you aren't having any lingering effects.

Both times were cold like symptoms. The latest was the delta variant. I'm in my 40's with no underlying conditions. 

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24 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

 

We all want to return to the classroom....as long as it is "safe" and all of or demands are met. 

 

What is wrong with demanding a safe work environment?

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9 hours ago, Sand said:

My brother had that and blisters in his eyes - docs were worried if he got it again he may have eye damage.  When his daughter had it he had to move out of the house for a while.

All that is really strange because he's otherwise a super healthy guy.  Just one disease his immune system refuses to fight.

Anyway, sorry for the hijack.  I was using it as an example of how those that don't have perfect immune systems are the biggest winners for getting the vaccine.

Shingles in a young (< 50) person often indicates a defect in cellular immunity. While it may be something obscure and relatively specific to varicella zoster virus (the virus which causes chickenpox/shingles), it's one of the clues to warrant investigation of immune problems. At the minimum, he should probably be HIV tested and get a CBC with manual differential.

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9 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Is there any way to make a joke that connects Lindsey Graham to Provincetown without getting banned?

Probably unrelated

Quote

The South Carolina coast has seen a major uptick in black bear sightings recently and experts at the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources (SCDNR) are asking residents to beware as bears are on the move in the spring time. 

 

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So here's a question.  If the virus is very mild in people who have been vaccinated, how do they even know they have the virus?  If I get a cold(which some are reporting this feels like) I am not rushing out to get a covid test.

This isn't totally adding up.

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1 hour ago, supermike80 said:

 If I get a cold(which some are reporting this feels like) I am not rushing out to get a covid test.

This isn't totally adding up.

It’s just that other people are much more likely to go for a Covid test than you apparently are.  There is zero question I would get a Covid test if I had cold-like symptoms that might potentially be Covid.  So would most people I know.

I spent this weekend with a woman who found out she had been exposed by someone staying at her house.  The guy that tested positive had mild symptoms.   I didn’t have symptoms nor did the woman I was with.  We still both got tested, even though we’re both vaxxed.  Getting tested is how we could know what precautions to take to avoid spreading it further.

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1 hour ago, supermike80 said:

So here's a question.  If the virus is very mild in people who have been vaccinated, how do they even know they have the virus?  If I get a cold(which some are reporting this feels like) I am not rushing out to get a covid test.

This isn't totally adding up.

Me neither but some people are

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Found out last night that my college roommate and fraternity brother just died of Covid. 50 years old and no underlying health conditions (besides a dadbod).  He leaves behind a wife and three daughters. Just crushing news. 

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2 hours ago, supermike80 said:

So here's a question.  If the virus is very mild in people who have been vaccinated, how do they even know they have the virus?  If I get a cold(which some are reporting this feels like) I am not rushing out to get a covid test.

This isn't totally adding up.

Well, we know that some proportion of breakthrough infections are asymptomatic.  Obviously those aren't being counted, because why would anybody get a covid test if they feel fine, outside of very specialized occupations that require regular testing.

If I had cold symptoms, I'm not sure whether I would bother taking a covid test or not.  I probably would because it would be a nice "peace of mind" thing to know that I've had covid and it was no big deal thanks to the vaccines, but I might not get around to it if my symptoms were mild.  It probably wouldn't be at the very top of my to-do list.  There are lots of people out there like me, and probably even more people who would never even think to get tested, so yeah my guess is that a huge proportion of those cases are not being counted either.

But that's fine.  Nobody keeps careful track of how many people are infected with Human Rhinovirus A each year, because who cares.  We need to get to that point with SARS-CoV-2, but that means getting people vaccinated.  

Edited by IvanKaramazov
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7 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

Shingles in a young (< 50) person often indicates a defect in cellular immunity. While it may be something obscure and relatively specific to varicella zoster virus (the virus which causes chickenpox/shingles), it's one of the clues to warrant investigation of immune problems. At the minimum, he should probably be HIV tested and get a CBC with manual differential.

This was 30 years ago, all cases as a teen.  Good thought, but it's likely if he had something that he would have presented with it a while back.

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NYT: " Mayor Blasio plans to announce that NYC will require proof of vaccination for participating in indoor activities, including restaurants, gyms and performances "Policy is similar to mandates issued in France and Italy last month. believed to be the first of its kind in US"

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57 minutes ago, Sand said:

This was 30 years ago, all cases as a teen.  Good thought, but it's likely if he had something that he would have presented with it a while back.

Oh, I thought you meant he had recurrent chickenpox/shingles as an adult. Still odd he had it as a kid, but you're correct that anything bad would've declared itself by now.

ETA Make sure he gets the varicella vaccine (Shingrix) as soon as he turns 50, if not sooner.

Edited by Terminalxylem
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2 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Well, we know that some proportion of breakthrough infections are asymptomatic.  Obviously those aren't being counted, because why would anybody get a covid test if they feel fine, outside of very specialized occupations that require regular testing.

If I had cold symptoms, I'm not sure whether I would bother taking a covid test or not.  I probably would because it would be a nice "peace of mind" thing to know that I've had covid and it was no big deal thanks to the vaccines, but I might not get around to it if my symptoms were mild.  It probably wouldn't be at the very top of my to-do list.  There are lots of people out there like me, and probably even more people who would never even think to get tested, so yeah my guess is that a huge proportion of those cases are not being counted either.

But that's fine.  Nobody keeps careful track of how many people are infected with Human Rhinovirus A each year, because who cares.  We need to get to that point with SARS-CoV-2, but that means getting people vaccinated.  

 

My take on this.  I have allergies and get sinus infections somewhat regularly.  I've been fully vaccinated for a few months now and I'm 100% WFH and don't really go anywhere.  If I get the sniffles/cold then I'm not going to get tested unless I have a fever too OR if I know I'm going to be around people.  I had a work dinner last week and felt a little off with mild cold symptoms.  I went and got tested ahead of time.  I almost didn't go thinking maybe the test was too early - turns out I got really sick but not from Covid - some other respiratory infection.  Ended up being tested 3 times in 10 days.

One question I've had about testing is how safe it is - what I mean by that is this.  I've gone to CVS 3 times this year to get tested.  It's a small hut with what I assume poor ventilation.  I'm only in there maybe 5 minutes but it always skeeves me out because basically everybody that goes in there is sick with something.

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Until the recent data about vaccinated people spreading, I wouldn’t have gotten tested for cold symptoms. Now that those cold symptoms may put my kids and other unvaccinated people at risk, I probably will. Today I’m planning on tracking down some at-home tests to take with for our trip to Disney this week. The last thing I want to be doing is running around Florida trying to find a test for us or more likely my extended family.

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5 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Today I’m planning on tracking down some at-home tests to take with for our trip to Disney this week.


Do you have a professional opinion about the at-home tests? Are they as prone to "false negatives before symptoms" as the easy** shallow nasal swabs (aka "the rapid test")?

** as distinguished from the "brain tickler" deep sinus swabs

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1 hour ago, massraider said:

NYT: " Mayor Blasio plans to announce that NYC will require proof of vaccination for participating in indoor activities, including restaurants, gyms and performances "Policy is similar to mandates issued in France and Italy last month. believed to be the first of its kind in US"

I hate this

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Just now, jobarules said:

I hate this

They are coming whether you hate them or not and they are coming because 40% of this country believes the earth is flat at this point and they are going to keep us in an endless cycle of illness and probably at some point create a more aggressive and deadly strain of covid

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1 minute ago, killface said:

They are coming whether you hate them or not and they are coming because 40% of this country believes the earth is flat at this point and they are going to keep us in an endless cycle of illness and probably at some point create a more aggressive and deadly strain of covid

Nailed it.  I do love the requirements.  It has to happen so those of us vaccinated folks can live.  

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4 minutes ago, jobarules said:
1 hour ago, massraider said:

NYT: " Mayor Blasio plans to announce that NYC will require proof of vaccination for participating in indoor activities, including restaurants, gyms and performances "Policy is similar to mandates issued in France and Italy last month. believed to be the first of its kind in US"

I hate this


I mean ... what else can be expected? Can't just let Delta or whatever comes after it to run wild.

Are low vaccination and low mitigation rates supposed to just be an "Oh well, sucks to be us" thing?

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Just now, jobarules said:

Vaccine isnt even available to children under 12. So family of 4, two vaccinated parents and two children under 12 cant goto a restaurant.

Tests are under way right now for children from 3 months to 12 years old.  Shouldn't be too long now.  Would you want your children in an enclosed restaurant if you knew some of the customers in the same room with you are unvaccinated?

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8 minutes ago, Doug B said:


Do you have a professional opinion about the at-home tests? Are they as prone to "false negatives before symptoms" as the easy** shallow nasal swabs (aka "the rapid test")?

** as distinguished from the "brain tickler" deep sinus swabs

I view them as good as a pre-test. If it comes out positive, I’ll go get the deep swab. If negative, I’m still going to watch for symptoms and retest if they continue. Normally I wouldn’t bother with them but I’d like the peace of mind given the situation we’re going into.

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1 minute ago, Prinefan said:

Tests are under way right now for children from 3 months to 12 years old.  Shouldn't be too long now.  Would you want your children in an enclosed restaurant if you knew some of the customers in the same room with you are unvaccinated?

Went to a restaurant sunday with our daughter for the first time in forever.

They did have doors and windows open though everywhere so obviously not the same.

1 hour ago, AAABatteries said:

 

My take on this.  I have allergies and get sinus infections somewhat regularly.  I've been fully vaccinated for a few months now and I'm 100% WFH and don't really go anywhere.  If I get the sniffles/cold then I'm not going to get tested unless I have a fever too OR if I know I'm going to be around people.  I had a work dinner last week and felt a little off with mild cold symptoms.  I went and got tested ahead of time.  I almost didn't go thinking maybe the test was too early - turns out I got really sick but not from Covid - some other respiratory infection.  Ended up being tested 3 times in 10 days.

One question I've had about testing is how safe it is - what I mean by that is this.  I've gone to CVS 3 times this year to get tested.  It's a small hut with what I assume poor ventilation.  I'm only in there maybe 5 minutes but it always skeeves me out because basically everybody that goes in there is sick with something.

From what you describe this would be by far your riskiest behavior. 

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