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Government Response To The Coronavirus


James Daulton

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6 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

Let's just start here and keep pooping the bed. 

Oh yeah, that was a huge miss.  The WHO and CDC hewed to that love for waaaay too long. 

What could have been done if airborne transmission was agreed upon earlier?  Investment into HVAC filtration?  I honestly think that would have had only a moderate impact on transmission, certainly not enough to truly impact the overall trajectory of he pandemic. 

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Something to note about the UK, though, when compared to the US -- the British never really got a handle on their Delta surge.

Not to say that the US can thrown dirt on Delta just yet. But take a look at the top-of-the-mountain numbers. The US has about 4.88 times the population of the UK -- to make the math simpler, let's just call that "5 times larger".

Like the US, the UK enjoyed a period of COVID calm before Delta kicked in. Going by seven-day averages, the UK's case counts fell below 10,000/day on 2/27/2021 and stayed there for almost four months, through 6/22/2021. Throughout almost all of April and May, they were below 3,000/day. Delta ramped up rapidly, very nearly quintupling their seven-day average between late June and July 21st when the UK reached their Delta high of 47,114.

The UK, however, never got on a true downslope with Delta. They had another Delta peak of over 38,000 on 9/9 and another pop above 47,000 on 10/23. At no point since their first Delta peak has the UK gotten south of 25,000 cases/day, and most of fall they've been well above 30,000/day.

So, how has the US fared comparatively through Delta? Treating the US as one singular entity can be a little dodgy since it's a huge place and different regions have had different Delta surges at different times. Still, you can get a sense that the US's baseline with Delta is a lot better than the UK's -- which is important because any Omicron surge is going to be laid on top of whatever Delta action is still going on.

Let's take that pre-Delta case number that marked the UK's pre-Delta lull, 10,000, and multiply it by 5 for the US. Applying that figure, the US had a briefer pre-Delta respite than the UK did -- not dipping below a seven-day average of 50,000 cases/day until 5/4/2021. The US drove the numbers down below 15,000/day for about a month -- early June to early July of this year. On 7/23/2021, the US's Delta surge had begun in earnest with the seven-day average rising back above 50,000 cases/day and staying that way ever since. The US's Delta seven-day average peak was reached on 9/2, 167,632/day. 

The US's fall Delta peak, then, was proportionally equivalent to the UK's fall Delta baseline -- 167,632/day divided by five yields about 33,500/day.

Tying this into Omicron: It can be said that the UK is in a more vulnerable position than the US is with a new variant. Recognition of that vulnerability might be driving some of the more pessimistic Omicron press coming out of the UK.

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7 hours ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Breaking things and then blaming the people trying to clean up the mess for not doing it right or fast enough has a strong history.  Iraq/Afghanistan, the Financial Crisis, COVID.

 

I'd say this sums up a lot of American politics for the last 20-25 years.

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37 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Oh yeah, that was a huge miss.  The WHO and CDC hewed to that love for waaaay too long. 

What could have been done if airborne transmission was agreed upon earlier?  Investment into HVAC filtration?  I honestly think that would have had only a moderate impact on transmission, certainly not enough to truly impact the overall trajectory of he pandemic. 

Lots of other things involved with treating it as airborne, but even just focusing on ventilation could possibly have had a huge impact. 

The badly ventilated rooms – 60% of those studied, said canton Graubünden – came out with six times as many cases as the better ventilated ones.

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5 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Lots of other things involved with treating it as airborne, but even just focusing on ventilation could possibly have had a huge impact. 

The badly ventilated rooms – 60% of those studied, said canton Graubünden – came out with six times as many cases as the better ventilated ones.

It was a huge miss. 

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42 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Lots of other things involved with treating it as airborne, but even just focusing on ventilation could possibly have had a huge impact. 

The badly ventilated rooms – 60% of those studied, said canton Graubünden – came out with six times as many cases as the better ventilated ones.

 

You've talked a lot about this for a while and I've paid attention - it's really weird why there hasn't been more done in this area.

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4 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

 

You've talked a lot about this for a while and I've paid attention - it's really weird why there hasn't been more done in this area.

I would guess a bit had to do with areas and $.   

I would agree with para that it wasn't talked about near the frequency that distance, masking, and other things were.   I know from our area it was brought up for schools and other things, but overhauling outdated systems could be costly and living in WI cranking the windows wasn't a super viable option.  

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5 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

 

You've talked a lot about this for a while and I've paid attention - it's really weird why there hasn't been more done in this area.

Because they knew not everybody could do every recommendation. 

This of course would give ammo to social justice warriors that have turned everything with this pandemic into a race struggle. 

And before the reaction is no way, just remember that the committee for the vaccines wanted to kill more Americans of every race just so they could have a more equal distribution racially of deaths. 

Eta: of not if 

 

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7 hours ago, Doug B said:

Something to note about the UK, though, when compared to the US -- the British never really got a handle on their Delta surge.

Not to say that the US can thrown dirt on Delta just yet. But take a look at the top-of-the-mountain numbers. The US has about 4.88 times the population of the UK -- to make the math simpler, let's just call that "5 times larger".

Like the US, the UK enjoyed a period of COVID calm before Delta kicked in. Going by seven-day averages, the UK's case counts fell below 10,000/day on 2/27/2021 and stayed there for almost four months, through 6/22/2021. Throughout almost all of April and May, they were below 3,000/day. Delta ramped up rapidly, very nearly quintupling their seven-day average between late June and July 21st when the UK reached their Delta high of 47,114.

The UK, however, never got on a true downslope with Delta. They had another Delta peak of over 38,000 on 9/9 and another pop above 47,000 on 10/23. At no point since their first Delta peak has the UK gotten south of 25,000 cases/day, and most of fall they've been well above 30,000/day.

So, how has the US fared comparatively through Delta? Treating the US as one singular entity can be a little dodgy since it's a huge place and different regions have had different Delta surges at different times. Still, you can get a sense that the US's baseline with Delta is a lot better than the UK's -- which is important because any Omicron surge is going to be laid on top of whatever Delta action is still going on.

Let's take that pre-Delta case number that marked the UK's pre-Delta lull, 10,000, and multiply it by 5 for the US. Applying that figure, the US had a briefer pre-Delta respite than the UK did -- not dipping below a seven-day average of 50,000 cases/day until 5/4/2021. The US drove the numbers down below 15,000/day for about a month -- early June to early July of this year. On 7/23/2021, the US's Delta surge had begun in earnest with the seven-day average rising back above 50,000 cases/day and staying that way ever since. The US's Delta seven-day average peak was reached on 9/2, 167,632/day. 

The US's fall Delta peak, then, was proportionally equivalent to the UK's fall Delta baseline -- 167,632/day divided by five yields about 33,500/day.

Tying this into Omicron: It can be said that the UK is in a more vulnerable position than the US is with a new variant. Recognition of that vulnerability might be driving some of the more pessimistic Omicron press coming out of the UK.

Definitely worth questioning the efficacy of the vaccines they’ve used in the UK.

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14 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

 

You've talked a lot about this for a while and I've paid attention - it's really weird why there hasn't been more done in this area.

My guess is that improving ventilation is costly, whereas masking and social distancing aren't.  (Or at least those things aren't costly to policy-makers, which is what matters for policy-making purposes).

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17 hours ago, timschochet said:

Thanks for all the info. Yes it is sensationalist, and yes it is scary. 

Alpha was scary.  A novel respiratory virus circulating through a completely vulnerable population with no especially effective treatment is legitimately scary, even if the death rate wasn't as high as it might have been.  There's a reason why "OMG look at this virus!" is a common trope in horror and post-apocalyptic fiction.

By way of contrast, omicron is just a mild annoyance.  Unless you're not vaccinated, in which case that's your own fault.

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14 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

By way of contrast, omicron is just a mild annoyance.  Unless you're not vaccinated, in which case that's your own fault.

 

yes because people with shot's don't get covid 🙄   ??

 

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On 12/11/2021 at 6:46 PM, parasaurolophus said:
On 12/11/2021 at 10:36 AM, Doug B said:

I would strenuously disagree with any take that disregards rates of bad-outcome occurrence. From a debate standpoint, there's really nowhere further to go with this.

How the hell can there be rates of long term effects? 


Are we talking about the same thing? Don't seem to be.

Backtracking: I maintain that the unqualified statement "The vaccinated can still catch COVID!" doesn't matter because it ignores rate, frequency, or whatever it needs to be called to make it better understood.

Another way to express my take, perhaps: I say that the second sentence below matters a lot, the first sentence not at all:

- The vaccinated can still catch COVID.

- The vaccinated catch COVID at a much lower rate than the unvaccinated.
 

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16 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Headline: First person dies from Omicron in UK

Article: First person dies WITH Omicron in UK

Reuters LINK


I don't know who's flubbing the headline,  but Reuters original one seems legit:

First death with Omicron variant in United Kingdom (Reuters, 12/13/2021)

The word difference may or may not be meaningful -- there's not enough detail about the death to figure it out. Not even the decedent's age.

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19 hours ago, timschochet said:

The suggestion, by some of the scientists (not all) that it’s just as deadly as the other variants, far easier to spread, and that the vaccines don’t work as well


It's likely true that vaccine efficacy is reduced, but it's a question of "how much" and "in what way":

Quote

 

Vaccine Effectiveness

We now have 8 lab studies all largely saying the same thing: Omicron significantly reduces the number of neutralizing antibodies from a 2-dose mRNA series compared to previous variants.

Importantly, a “reduction in neutralizing antibodies” is not the same thing as “reduction in vaccine effectiveness”. This is because immune systems are adaptive and diverse thanks to other types of antibodies, B-cells (antibody factories), and T-cells (secondary line of defense). So it’s important to look at other data too.

In the UK, we got our first glimpse of “real world” vaccine effectiveness against Omicron. On Friday, the UK Health Security Agency released a comprehensive report in which they compared 56,439 cases of Delta to 581 cases of Omicron from Nov 27 to Dec 6, 2021. Vaccine effectiveness against Omicron infection was 30-40% after two shots of Pfizer. After a booster, effectiveness increased to 70-80%. This is nothing short of phenomenal. This also probably means that boosters continue to reduce viral transmission.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Stealthycat said:
2 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

By way of contrast, omicron is just a mild annoyance.  Unless you're not vaccinated, in which case that's your own fault.

 

yes because people with shot's don't get covid 🙄   ??

We do, but it tends to be just a mild annoyance when we do

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11 minutes ago, Max Power said:

Most of the Omicron hospitalizations in the UK are in the fully vaccinated. 


The other shoe: How long past vaccination, typically? I'm a lot more concerned if people a month out are catching symptomatic Omicron than I am about people 6+ months out.

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2 minutes ago, Doug B said:


The other shoe: How long past vaccination, typically? I'm a lot more concerned if people a month out are catching symptomatic Omicron than I am about people 6+ months out.

our CDC said 1/3 of the Omicron cases in the US were in boosted people. 

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5 minutes ago, Max Power said:

our CDC said 1/3 of the Omicron cases in the US were in boosted people. 


Timing is everything (USA Today, 12/11/2021):

Quote

 

CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a White House health briefing Friday afternoon that data on the first 43 omicron variant cases in the U.S. shows nearly 80% of the cases were in fully vaccinated people. Nearly everyone who has been found to be infected by the variant has experienced mild symptoms, she said, noting that was to be expected in vaccinated people who have some resistance to the disease.

Only one person was hospitalized with omicron and no deaths have been recorded, she added. The variant has been detected in 25 states as of Friday.

About half of those infected by the omicron variant were between the ages of 18 to 39 and one-third had traveled internationally before testing positive. 

The CDC says a booster shot of the vaccine appears to offer protection against the variant — and especially severe disease. While 14 known US cases include people who were boosted, Walensky said some had only recently received their third shot and may not have yet reached peak protection.

 


Also, law of small numbers. 14 out of 43 cases. No breakdown by age. Let's watch the rest of the film.

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1 minute ago, Doug B said:


Timing is everything (USA Today, 12/11/2021):


Also, law of small numbers. 14 out of 43 cases. No breakdown by age. Let's watch the rest of the film.

So this is another case where we have to wait two weeks post booster to be at peak protection?  And how long does peak protection last? 

We're moving to 3 month boosters aren't we...

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3 minutes ago, Max Power said:

So this is another case where we have to wait two weeks post booster to be at peak protection?  And how long does peak protection last? 


Can't tell from what Wallensky said. Could've been people less than 48 hours out from their boosters. Could have been longer. Those specifics weren't given.

Also curious what kinds of symptoms (if any) these early US Omicron cases are presenting. They're finding Omicron cases through random sampling of PCR results, not from especially sick people showing up somewhere to get tested for COVID.

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1 minute ago, Doug B said:


Can't tell from what Wallensky said. Could've been people less than 48 hours out from their boosters. Could have been longer. Those specifics weren't given.

Also curious what kinds of symptoms (if any) these early US Omicron cases are presenting. They're finding Omicron cases through random sampling of PCR results, not from especially sick people showing up somewhere to get tested for COVID.

Shouldn't we know this?  What does the medical community say about peak boosting?  It feels like we're shooting from the hip with this. Get boosted, it will protect you, unless its too soon or too far from your last shot.  In reality, you're already protected from severe illness from the first series of shots. 

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4 minutes ago, John123 said:

I've not been very complimentary of how government has dealt with the Coronavirus, either locally or nationally, but I found out about this program the other day and do think this is good:

https://covid19.colorado.gov/covid-19-testing-at-home

I guess I wonder why this is the first I'm hearing about this.  Are other states doing something similar?

Worthless until they get rid of these:

Quote

 

Please note: Over-the-counter test results may not be accepted as proof of negative results for some situations (travel, return to learn, employer mandated testing, etc.). Please review the specific guidance from the entity requiring testing in advance. 

This at-home testing program cannot be used for Colorado state employee testing requirements without a special accommodation.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Worthless until they get rid of these:

 

 

I disagree.  The gestapo requirements for proof of vaccination/negative tests is a separate issue.  The point of these tests is so that families/individuals can quickly determine whether they have Covid so they know for THEMSELF whether they need to be quarantining and/or seeking medical attention.  This is about the individual, as it should be, and not the collective.  We are not the borg. 

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8 minutes ago, John123 said:

 

I disagree.  The gestapo requirements for proof of vaccination/negative tests is a separate issue.  The point of these tests is so that families/individuals can quickly determine whether they have Covid so they know for THEMSELF whether they need to be quarantining and/or seeking medical attention.  This is about the individual, as it should be, and not the collective.  We are not the borg. 

The only reason I've had for testing (and most healthy low risk people) is for travel.  And I assume a lot of people need it for their work.  $70 a pop to have a health care worker give you the exact same test is a rip off.  Plus, I thought all of them were too busy.

I guess if you get sick all the time these would be good for the individual, but knowing if it's the flu or covid wouldn't change my approach one bit.

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9 minutes ago, Max Power said:

Shouldn't we know this? 


From what data? It's too early on. We'll get better information as time goes on. Can't rush it.

Quote

What does the medical community say about peak boosting?  It feels like we're shooting from the hip with this. Get boosted, it will protect you, unless its too soon or too far from your last shot.  In reality, you're already protected from severe illness from the first series of shots. 


You're last sentence is likely true.

As far as peak boosting specifically to be ready for Omicron ... I mean, what choice do we have but to shoot from the hip a bit? Can't do 10,000-person trials over 12 months for every curveball COVID throws. Sometimes you just got to make an educated call and go with it.

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1 minute ago, tonydead said:

The only reason I've had for testing (and most healthy low risk people) is for travel.  And I assume a lot of people need it for their work.  

I guess if you get sick all the time these would be good for the individual, but knowing if it's the flu or covid wouldn't change my approach one bit.

 

A couple months ago my GF started feeling like poop.  She didn't know if she had Covid or just a typical cold/flu.  We ended up going to an urgent care so she could get tested.  She tested negative but it was a bit of a hassle.  She ordered these and we now have them.  They will make it much more convenient for us to be responsible in case we have reason to believe either of us may have Covid. 

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Just now, John123 said:

 

A couple months ago my GF started feeling like poop.  She didn't know if she had Covid or just a typical cold/flu.  We ended up going to an urgent care so she could get tested.  She tested negative but it was a bit of a hassle.  She ordered these and we now have them.  They will make it much more convenient for us to be responsible in case we have reason to believe either of us may have Covid. 

:thumbup:  Unless, you have trouble breathing I tell my GF to stay home and treat it like the flu until you feel better.   This panic about getting a test every time you catch a cold is ridiculous.  Unless of course you are super high risk.

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14 minutes ago, John123 said:

 

A couple months ago my GF started feeling like poop.  She didn't know if she had Covid or just a typical cold/flu.  We ended up going to an urgent care so she could get tested.  She tested negative but it was a bit of a hassle.  She ordered these and we now have them.  They will make it much more convenient for us to be responsible in case we have reason to believe either of us may have Covid. 

Other countries are way ahead of us on at-home testing.  Earlier in the pandemic, this was 100% the fault of the CDC (for designing a botched test) and the FDA (which banned all tests besides the CDC's botched version, because as the saying goes, it is always wise to put all of one's eggs in a single basket).  I don't pretend to know why we were never able to recover from that, but we haven't.

It seems like if we can pay for a billion doses of vaccines, it would also be a good idea to subsidize rapid testing.  That definitely would have been a good idea this time last year.  I doubt it's a game-changer now, but it's still better than harassing airline passengers about letting their cloth masks slip of their noses.    

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35 minutes ago, John123 said:

 

The gestapo requirements for proof of vaccination/negative tests 

 

Really sick of this. 
Hey John I think you know I’m pretty much an open borders guy and I was pissed off at the way Trump separated families. But then I was even MORE  pissed off when idiots like AOC and others starting using terms like “Dachau” and “concentration camps”. You know why? Because my grandparents were in those camps. And they had to deal with the Gestapo. The real thing. And asking for proof of vaccination, for public health reasons, has NOTHING to do with the Gestapo. So I will tell you what I told some AOC supporters a few years ago: stop using Nazi analogies. It’s offensive, it’s ####ed up. Just stop it, you have no idea what you’re taking about. 

 

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1 hour ago, Dickies said:

We do, but it tends to be just a mild annoyance when we do

 

I read the CDC is thinking a full 110 million American's have had covid

109 million of those had mild annoyances 

and as time goes and the shots fade ... shotted people will get sicker and sicker and die more

 

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28 minutes ago, Doug B said:


From what data? It's too early on. We'll get better information as time goes on. Can't rush it.


You're last sentence is likely true.

As far as peak boosting specifically to be ready for Omicron ... I mean, what choice do we have but to shoot from the hip a bit? Can't do 10,000-person trials over 12 months for every curveball COVID throws. Sometimes you just got to make an educated call and go with it.

The same data we're using to tell all adults to go get boosted right now.  Taking the shot doesn't come with a 0 risk factor. Shouldn't we at least know what the benefit is to accept this risk? Less severe symptoms for a couple months doesn't sound like a good trade off for vaccines without long term studies. 

This doesn't look doctors and scientists making the right educated call. You can still get Omicron even when boosted.  

I've got to run down a study from Canadian health officials I heard a doctor talking about this morning.  It showed the more time between shots, the less adverse events were recorded in the patient.  You'd think this would be looked at closer before we tell people to get more shots. 

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4 minutes ago, timschochet said:

 

Really sick of this. 
Hey John I think you know I’m pretty much an open borders guy and I was pissed off at the way Trump separated families. But then I was even MORE  pissed off when idiots like AOC and others starting using terms like “Dachau” and “concentration camps”. You know why? Because my grandparents were in those camps. And they had to deal with the Gestapo. The real thing. And asking for proof of vaccination, for public health reasons, has NOTHING to do with the Gestapo. So I will tell you what I told some AOC supporters a few years ago: stop using Nazi analogies. It’s offensive, it’s ####ed up. Just stop it, you have no idea what you’re taking about. 

 

 

Whatever dude.  When I have to show my medical history to some low level door keeper to attend a concert or go out to eat, that's gestapo level to me.  We're headed down the dreaded "slippery slope" with this Covid crap.  It's unfortunately that you choose not to see it.

Edited by John123
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"I'm afraid it is now clear that two doses of vaccine are simply not enough to give the level of protection we all need," Johnson said, citing early data that showed the effectiveness of a two-dose regimen is diminished by the new variant, but that boosters still provide a good level of protection

 

so are the shots protection or not ?  looks like not 

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7 minutes ago, John123 said:

Whatever dude.  When I have to show my medical history to some low level door keeper to attend a concert or go out to eat, that's gestapo level to me.  We're headed down the dreaded "slippery slope" with this Covid crap.  It's unfortunately that you choose not to see it.

 

Exactly. Peak German Nazi tactics didn't occur overnight, but incrementally - just as with Covidian oppression, which will continue to pile on and accelerate if it isn't called out. Even if parallels are hyperbolic (for now), they are there to see.

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1 minute ago, timschochet said:

Then I suggest you read up some more about the Gestapo. 

 

Everyone else understands what I'm saying.  At some point, you should acknowledge that some of your issues are with YOU and not the people you constantly argue with. 

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3 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

"I'm afraid it is now clear that two doses of vaccine are simply not enough to give the level of protection we all need," Johnson said, citing early data that showed the effectiveness of a two-dose regimen is diminished by the new variant, but that boosters still provide a good level of protection

 

so are the shots protection or not ?  looks like not 

Read your own quote.

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5 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

"I'm afraid it is now clear that two doses of vaccine are simply not enough to give the level of protection we all need," Johnson said, citing early data that showed the effectiveness of a two-dose regimen is diminished by the new variant, but that boosters still provide a good level of protection

 

so are the shots protection or not ?  looks like not 

If you don't get sick, it worked.  If you do get sick, you need to take more. 

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