King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Screech if that is the case...
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WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
No way is Bisi Johnson starting for long. Hopefully this makes his price cheaper in redraft.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I didn't realize he was going in the 5th round same as Thielen util a bit ago.
As a Vikings fan I love the optimism but no way he should be close to the same value as Thjielen for the 2020 season.
I sure hope I am wrong about that. That would be great for the Vikings.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Sorry if I missed that in someones statement here.tangfoot said:
I was referring to discussion of ADP of Thielen and Jefferson in the AT thread and one poster shared this ADP and that is what I was referencing as far as Jeferson and Thielen being selected in the same round.
That ADP does seem to be off compared to this ADP that had Thielen at 40 overall and Jefferson at 107.
Another person brought up ADP on yahoo and that being pretty different as well.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't think Zimmer dislikes rookie players.
There have been several rookies especially corner backs who take years to start a lot. Part of that was just having Newman playing at a high level, but yeah the corners have taken time to earn starting spots. He wont have that luxury this season.
As far as the WR I dont think we should judge the coach based on Treadwell or Pattersons failure to launch.
I think it is more Kubiaks decision as far as when Jefferson is ready or not. Kubiak is the one who really wanted Jefferson.
I am not sure if your buy window will develop or not.
I can see a scenario where Irv Smith catches more balls than people are thinking and if that happens Jeffersons numbers might be disappointing.
I don't know. For the most part I think the fantasy community has been higher on Jefferson than I have been. I'm hoping I am wrong about that.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Seems like what people would have been saying about Adam Thielen, Stefon Digfs and Charles Johnson when Treadwell was a 1st and 2nd year player. I suspect Jefferson will be a good NFL player but he is going to have to earn it.
If there's one organization in football where I would say that an unheralded player gets a legitimate shot by proving that he belongs, it's the Minnesota Vikings. They have routinely let their roster be a meritocracy.
Jefferson will have to earn his snaps because the starting job will not simply be handed to him.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Tang said it way better than I did and I agree with the Smith part too. Jefferson could well be a guy that doesn't get off to the gangbusters start that's being hyped and I hope if that happens to be of service to those owners that get quick cold feet.
TartanLion
Footballguy
TartanLion
Footballguy
Ended up going for over 170 yards 
The TD was awesome as well, very slick to get by the two DBs and made them look absolutely silly
The TD was awesome as well, very slick to get by the two DBs and made them look absolutely silly
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
And ROS.
This guy is clearly in everyone's waiver radar, and looked fantastic.
That said, I get the the Vikes look to be throwing a LOT this year, but how confident are we that his production is going to be sustainable? And at what level?
Is this a guy who will have greater value than some WRs we are still waiting to break out like Cooks, Samuel, Hilton, Landry?
Is he as valuable as a guy like Chark or Fuller? John Brown, or Jeudy?
Trying to get past the hype and really understand what's truly going to be sustainable, and what comp. WR you see him finishing the season as being equal to?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Well not sure about ROS but I am sure that I'm screwed at WR in a lot of spots and am *gladly* bumping him into my lineup to chase those 30 points that will never come again but at least I'll be happy about putting him in there. Better than Trequan Smith or Gage or Unicorn IMO. At this moment.
In my opinion:
Guys I'd have Jefferson over: Landry, Jeudy
Guys I'd have over Jefferson: Hilton, Fuller, Chark, Deebo(assuming you meant him and not Curtis)
Guys about equal: J.Brown, Cooks
I might be being stubborn on Hilton, but with no Campbell/Pittman, he almost has to breakout. I also almost put Chark in the equal column, but I've never been a big fan of his, so your mileage may vary.
I view Jefferson as a WR3/4 right now, and fully expect him to be the #3 guy in the offense after Cook and Thielen. Somewhere between WR30-WR40 for me.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think it is pretty tough to predict what is going to happen moving forward for Jeffrson with still only 3 games in the league. He doesn't have a sample size big enough to try to project from imo yet.
As far as the Vikings needing to throw the ball a lot, that does seem sustainable. Until the Vikings start playing better defense.. maybe when/if Hunter comes back from a herniated disk in his neck they start playing better on that side of the ball and can get conservative with their offense again, but other than that I see the Vikings continue to give up a lot of yards and points and be forced into throwing the ball a lot more than I think they want to.
As things stand right now Jefferson has some incredible numbers such as 16.3 yards per target and 80% catch rate. Those numbers are not sustainable over the rest of the season. 10 yards per target is a high mark for any WR over 16 games. I do not know what to do with this 3 game sample right now as far as projecting that forward. I will feel a little better about that after a 4th game.
I we are just talking about opportunity Jefferson has averaged 5 targets per game so far. If that continues he would have 80 targets over 16 games. If the targets are higher than that (and based on increasing snap counts that seems likely) then Jefferson may be looking at 100+ targets this year.
At this time the Vikings have run a balanced offense 78 passing attempts to 73 rushing attempts, even though they have been behind in the score most of these 3 games. The Vikings haven't had the ball enough due to safeties (yes plural safeties) and interceptions. Over 3 game Cousins is on pace to throw 416 times. He had 444 attempts last season. With the way things are going I would expect that number to go up from last season, to something more like 500 total attempts (31.5 pa/game) if they don't keep turning the ball over so frequently.
For sake of making a projection lets say they do throw it 500 times. Adam Thielen gets 28% of the targets and Jefferson gets 20% that would be 100 targets. I would start there as the median range of possible outcomes. Based on what he has shown so far I would expect Jeffersons efficiency numbers to be above average but not as good as they have been so far.
Last year Diggs had 12 yards per target. That is phenomenal. 10 yards per target is excellent and too high. Adam Thielen has averaged 10 ypt before in this offense. The focus on the running game and play action did lead to some amazing efficiency stats. Cousins completed 69% of his passes last year and 70% the year before, so Jeffersons catch rate should be helped by that.
If Jefferson catches 68% of his targets at 9 yards per target (very good) that would be 68 receptions and 900 yards on 100 targets. Seems optimistic but possible.
I don't know. I expected Cooks to do better than he has and I think Hilton is going to get a ton of targets as their main weapon besides Taylor now. I don't think I am trading Jefferson for those guys in redraft right now though and definitely not in dynasty. I do love all of those players too.
I would say Jeudy over Jefferson based on talent but I dunno about his QB. That seems like a big problem with Lock hurt. I am not jumping at any of these guys over Jefferson either.
As I said above I think the crappy defense of the Vikings is sustainable and as such the passing attempts for the Vikings should be higher than what the coaches of the team would like it to be. I don't know who I would compare Jefferson to. I need to see more.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
What is his upside going forward? I like him, but it is hard for a rookie to be a top 25 WR.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am likely being too optimistic in my above projection. Kirk Cousins has only completed 59% of his attempts so far this year.
That feels pretty fluky though, its WAY below his career norms. He started really slow last year too. Maybe its a trend.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well 6 of those off target throws have been interceptions.
To your point though I think Cousins will start playing better as the season goes on. Cousins has been under a lot of pressure so far. Dru Samia who I have been a fan of has not been playing well at right guard. He is worse than Elflien and Elflien isn't really good enough to start either. They are better run blockers than pass protectors. That is somthing that seems to be the case every year and also must be something of their own choosing.
Anyhow I was just listening to Arif Hasan if you go to the 59 minute mark of this podcast he talks about how Jefferson demonstrated being able to win in many different ways and that it is projectable going forward. That Jefferson has shown to be enough of a threat that it should help free up coverage on Adam Thielen and the offense as a whole should be more effective because of that.
The issue is that Cousins has 46 completions through 3 games. Forty-six!! Dak Prescott just had 37 in week 3. There’s simply not enough passing volume to sustain a single reliable WR, let alone two. He’s got some skills, but trusting him or Thielen is going to be hard to do until this offense changes.
That’s fine in theory. The offense certainly played better in week 3. But again, the team ended the game with 16 completions. That was following 19 and 11 in weeks one and two, respectively. Pretty tough to get fantasy relevant production out of that.
NotSmart
Footballguy
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Who is starting him?
I can't get a bead on this match up with Hou. They are generally solid in pass D, and have faced offenses that can hang points on you. And still just one receiver to top 46 yards against them thus far.
The Titans are also considered a fairly solid pass D but Cousins was able to toss 3 TDs against them. Cousins also looks incredibly volatile, looking great one minute then like dung the next.
And this offense doesn't generate a lot of passing attempts per game, but now that Jefferson flashed, do they shift to do just more of that?
I am actually thinking it may be safer to go to the other side of the field this weekend in Cooks, as the MIN pass D is a sieve, and despite Fuller looking like the main WR and being a full participant on Friday.
Have no idea who to trust anymore.
I can't get a bead on this match up with Hou. They are generally solid in pass D, and have faced offenses that can hang points on you. And still just one receiver to top 46 yards against them thus far.
The Titans are also considered a fairly solid pass D but Cousins was able to toss 3 TDs against them. Cousins also looks incredibly volatile, looking great one minute then like dung the next.
And this offense doesn't generate a lot of passing attempts per game, but now that Jefferson flashed, do they shift to do just more of that?
I am actually thinking it may be safer to go to the other side of the field this weekend in Cooks, as the MIN pass D is a sieve, and despite Fuller looking like the main WR and being a full participant on Friday.
Have no idea who to trust anymore.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
They have played KC BAL and STL so far. I agree these are good offenses but the 48 yards to a WR thing doesn't mean that much to me. Looking at the numbers the Texans look like a below average defense compared to the rest of the league. They have given up the most rushing yards of any team in the league so far, and a couple teams have 4 games played already.
The Texans are bottom 3rd in pressure rate so far as 19.4% and they don't have any interceptions yet. The way the Vikings have been giving away the ball maybe that will change. Also the Vikings offensive line should give up more pressure than the Texans have been getting. I was listening to a stat for pressure given up by Dru Samia makes any defender going against him perform like 150% of Aaron Donald (best pass rusher in the league).
The general manager said that Ezra Cleveland may be starting soon. Vikings fans were wondering if it could be any worse than Pat Elflien, and it has been worse since he was injured. Hard for me to imagine Cleveland being worse than Samia but I suppose its possible.
The Vikings on a short week of preparation because of the Titans players having Covid. I still have no heard anything about any Vikings getting it yet, which is somewhat surprising to me. If they were really trying to be safe about this, it seems like the Vikings shouldn't play this week either, just to be sure, but afaik no Vikings have tested positive for Covid to this point. Zimmer said the players have been very professional about this and no one has been complaining about missed practice time.
Honestly I think the Vikings have had enough time to get their feet wet now and that their offense is going to start throwing the ball more than they have been as an adjustment to the defense not playing well yet. What they were able to establish with Jefferson last week is what the offense needed to free up attention on Thielen and Cook. I think they keep trying to get him the ball.
I don't think the Titans defense is as good as it was last year. Jefferson did most of his damage against Butler. Who is he most likely to match up against with the Texans?
I think they have to because the defense is not stopping anyone. I think we saw some of this transition to being more of a pass first offense in the Vikings previous game and that should continue until the Vikings defense shows they can actually hold the score to less than 30 points.
Brandin Cooks is a good player. The Vikings are getting Cameron Dantzler back but Mike Hughes is out and Tyler Boyd is doubtful. I suspect the Texans try to pick on Holton Hill who has been giving up a ton of receptions so far.
Its a tough choice. I could see going either way here. I think both Jefferson and Cooks have 6 or more targets in this game.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Oh dude. I can save you the analysis for my teams that have Jefferson. I actually do believe (that's why I have him everywhere) but the truth is I have no choice. There is no debate. I started Patrick everywhere last night with some confidence because of how bad it is. There are no names on the wire or my benches that I'm putting above Jefferson so it is academic (for me). I'm sure many people have him in a tougher spot. Like would you put him over McLaurin if he plays?
I’ve had him in my starting lineup all week over Gallup and Lamb and alongside Beckham. Looking for upside since I’m currently 0-3. But CLE CB’s are either out or questionable so now I have no clue.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
According to this Bradley Roby should shadow Adam Thielen while Jefferson matches up with Vernon Hargreaves 3.
Some are predicting break out game for Irv Smith because the Texans have given up a lot of points to TE this year.
The Texans are bad against the run. Seems like Cook should have a big game and open up play action opportunities.
Some are predicting break out game for Irv Smith because the Texans have given up a lot of points to TE this year.
The Texans are bad against the run. Seems like Cook should have a big game and open up play action opportunities.
