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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Bucs


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Chris Thompson is the Dion Lewis of James Whites. 

he's gonna go in the top 15 picks in almost every rookie draft.  

Yeah I don’t think there’s anyway he makes it out of second rounds. He has the size to potentially be a three down back, and coming into a good situation with not the greatest of RBs in front of him.

6 minutes ago, Edgar said:

I don’t see him falling past contenders in the late first. If I just was in the championship game and hold 1.11 or 1.12, Vaughn is the perfect add. 

If I was just in the title game then my team is probably in good enough shape for me to justify prioritizing future years with my draft picks, rather than what's right in front of me. His year one role may compare with other rookies, but I don't think he's good enough to build on that in year two. I could go either way on him vs AJ Dillon, but the market place appears to be making that decision for me. I'll pick WR's when others are considering Vaughn. Maybe I'll get Dillon or McFarland later.

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I'm seeing Matthew Freedman out here spewing trash like "don't draft a 3rd round 23 year old RB over a 1st round 21 year old WR."  From the bland lazy analysis I guess this seems correct, but it skips the fact that Vaughn's sophomore year was a bust cuz Lovie Smith gonna Lovie Smith.  Vaughn had a solid freshman year after being Mr Football in Tennessee.  He then transferred from Illinois and lost another year.  I'm not advocating taking Vaughn over the top notch WR's by any means, but someone should let him know that Vaughn only had 12 less receptions than Ruggs last year.  I can't stand someone bashing a prospect with baseless analysis.

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7 hours ago, BINGBING said:

I'm seeing Matthew Freedman out here spewing trash like "don't draft a 3rd round 23 year old RB over a 1st round 21 year old WR."  From the bland lazy analysis I guess this seems correct, but it skips the fact that Vaughn's sophomore year was a bust cuz Lovie Smith gonna Lovie Smith.  Vaughn had a solid freshman year after being Mr Football in Tennessee.  He then transferred from Illinois and lost another year.  I'm not advocating taking Vaughn over the top notch WR's by any means, but someone should let him know that Vaughn only had 12 less receptions than Ruggs last year.  I can't stand someone bashing a prospect with baseless analysis.

How does stating that Vaughn is a 23 year old 3rd round RB “skip” any of that other stuff you’re hung up on.  A 23 year old 3rd round RB actually seems a quite accurate descriptive for what Vaughn is, no?

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17 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

How does stating that Vaughn is a 23 year old 3rd round RB “skip” any of that other stuff you’re hung up on.  A 23 year old 3rd round RB actually seems a quite accurate descriptive for what Vaughn is, no?

The point is that he very well could have been an early declare had he not transferred.  If he stayed home and was with Vandy from the start he very easily could have been an early declare.  Immediately writing him off because he's 23 is just ridiculous.

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6 minutes ago, BINGBING said:

The point is that he very well could have been an early declare had he not transferred.  If he stayed home and was with Vandy from the start he very easily could have been an early declare.  Immediately writing him off because he's 23 is just ridiculous.

There's lots of ways to try to rationalize things. What I am hearing is he had to transfer because the competition at Illinois was too much for him and because a long time NFL coach got an up close look at him and was unimpressed. I like Vaughn but I think him being 23 is a slight negative no matter what the facts surrounding it are. 

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6 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

There's lots of ways to try to rationalize things. What I am hearing is he had to transfer because the competition at Illinois was too much for him and because a long time NFL coach got an up close look at him and was unimpressed. I like Vaughn but I think him being 23 is a slight negative no matter what the facts surrounding it are. 

This.

15 minutes ago, BINGBING said:

The point is that he very well could have been an early declare had he not transferred.  If he stayed home and was with Vandy from the start he very easily could have been an early declare.  Immediately writing him off because he's 23 is just ridiculous.

I don’t think advocating to take 21 year old WRs drafted in the first round over 23 year old RBs drafted in the third round is “immediately writing Vaughn off.”  You seem offended by what is very likely to be sound, logical advice.

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19 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

This.

I don’t think advocating to take 21 year old WRs drafted in the first round over 23 year old RBs drafted in the third round is “immediately writing Vaughn off.”  You seem offended by what is very likely to be sound, logical advice.

It's more about Freedman's logic overall than any one individual RB.  He is also advocating taking all the 1st round WR's except Aiyuk over every RB except CEH and Taylor based strictly off draft capital.  I guess 1st round WR's never bust.  Not to mention he's tweaking his narrative by saying Vaughn is 23 when he hasn't actually turned 23 yet.

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2 minutes ago, BINGBING said:

It's more about Freedman's logic overall than any one individual RB.  He is also advocating taking all the 1st round WR's except Aiyuk over every RB except CEH and Taylor based strictly off draft capital.  I guess 1st round WR's never bust.

The best way to draft rookies in fantasy is combine analytics with what you're reading from the evaluators, IMO.  

When you go completely analytics, or completely blow them off, you are making a mistake.  Freedman is analytics, completely. 

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16 minutes ago, massraider said:

The best way to draft rookies in fantasy is combine analytics with what you're reading from the evaluators, IMO.  

When you go completely analytics, or completely blow them off, you are making a mistake.  Freedman is analytics, completely. 

And he’s a WR fanatic if I recall correctly 

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23 minutes ago, BINGBING said:

It's more about Freedman's logic overall than any one individual RB.  He is also advocating taking all the 1st round WR's except Aiyuk over every RB except CEH and Taylor based strictly off draft capital.  I guess 1st round WR's never bust.  Not to mention he's tweaking his narrative by saying Vaughn is 23 when he hasn't actually turned 23 yet.

My guess is 1st round WRs bust a lot less often than 3rd RBs

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18 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

My guess is 1st round WRs bust a lot less often than 3rd RBs

Of course.  That being said, there is no context to it.  I had no problem taking Kamara and Hunt over Mike Williams when they landed in KC and New Orleans.  Landing in the right spot matters.  It's why CEH just went from 5th to 1st on a lot of people's draft boards.  Vaughn has a chance to explode in that offense within a division where defense is optional.

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2 minutes ago, BINGBING said:

Of course.  That being said, there is no context to it.  I had no problem taking Kamara and Hunt over Mike Williams when they landed in KC and New Orleans.  Landing in the right spot matters.  It's why CEH just went from 5th to 1st on a lot of people's draft boards.  Vaughn has a chance to explode in that offense within a division where defense is optional.

I’m mostly with you because I tend to side with RB vs WR in dynasty rookie drafts since I like to think of a short term window but I think if you just always take the young WR with 1st round capital over the old RB with 3rd round draft capital, you likely end up on the right end of it over the long term. 

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2 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I’m mostly with you because I tend to side with RB vs WR in dynasty rookie drafts since I like to think of a short term window but I think if you just always take the young WR with 1st round capital over the old RB with 3rd round draft capital, you likely end up on the right end of it over the long term. 

Agreed.  I was mostly annoyed with Freedman's lack of analysis.  Don't even get me started on him saying Kerryon Johnson could be better than Swift because they were taken by the same team at a similar draft spot.  

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1 hour ago, SayWhat? said:

This.

I don’t think advocating to take 21 year old WRs drafted in the first round over 23 year old RBs drafted in the third round is “immediately writing Vaughn off.”  You seem offended by what is very likely to be sound, logical advice.

I honestly used this exact logic in 2015 to draft Nelson Agholor over David Johnson at 1.11. No joke.

Just one data point, but I had to laugh when I saw the post. Another Arians RB, too. 

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2 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

My guess is 1st round WRs bust a lot less often than 3rd RBs

Neither list is particularly good, to be honest.

 

Marquise Brown
N'Keal Harry
DJ Moore
Calvin Ridley
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
John Ross
Corey Coleman
Will Fuller
Laquon Treadwell
Josh Docston
Amari Cooper
Kevin White
Devante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett

 

Darrell Henderson
David Montgomery
Devin Singletary
Damien Harris
Alexander Mattison
Royce Freeman
Donta Foreman
James Conner
Alvin Kamara
Kareem Hunt

Kenyan Drake
CJ Prosise
Tevin Coleman
Duke Johnson
David Johnson
Matt Jones

 

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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Neither list is particularly good, to be honest.

 

Marquise Brown
N'Keal Harry
DJ Moore
Calvin Ridley
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
John Ross
Corey Coleman
Will Fuller
Laquon Treadwell
Josh Docston
Amari Cooper
Kevin White
Devante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett

 

Darrell Henderson
David Montgomery
Devin Singletary
Damien Harris
Alexander Mattison
Royce Freeman
Donta Foreman
James Conner
Alvin Kamara
Kareem Hunt

Kenyan Drake
CJ Prosise
Tevin Coleman
Duke Johnson
David Johnson
Matt Jones

 

That is too small of a sample size to assess a conclusion. 

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Just now, Ilov80s said:

That is too small of a sample size to assess a conclusion. 

I'm sure over time the WRs stand out, but I figured 5 years was pretty fair given that RBs are drafted very differently now (IE a 3rd round RB today is much different than a 3rd round RB 10 years ago since RBs are generally allowed to fall further in the draft now with the devaluing of the position).

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I'm sure over time the WRs stand out, but I figured 5 years was pretty fair given that RBs are drafted very differently now (IE a 3rd round RB today is much different than a 3rd round RB 10 years ago since RBs are generally allowed to fall further in the draft now with the devaluing of the position).

Good point. It’s true as philosophies change, it alters the value of the data. However, 18 samples in each category is really small. I think the large pool of data about draft capital and age is probably the most helpful data set. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Match Game: 2020 Draft Meeting Bucs' Needs

Excerpt:

Quote

Safeties Jeremy Chinn, Ashtyn Davis and Brandon Jones all went between the Bucs' selection of Winfield and the next time they were on the clock. Of course, so did running backs Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins and A.J. Dillon, but running a draft is largely about estimating what will still be available from one round to the next and Licht's Buccaneers like the way the second day played out in regard to their needs. The Bucs wanted a running back who they thought could complement Ronald Jones and be a potential asset on all three downs, including sometimes splitting out and running routes like a wide receiver.

"By no stretch of the imagination am I going to say that we reached at all because he was sitting right there, right where we were picking and it just matched up with what felt like we needed, which was another running back to get in the mix with RoJo," said Licht. "RoJo, Dare [Ogunbowale], T.J. [Logan] – we feel like we've got a pretty good group right now.

"I think [Vaughn] is capable of playing on all three downs so you can't have too many good backs. You can't just rely on one good back. If you have a guy who can do multiple things, it makes him even more valuable to your team. We'll see how it goes. We have to get him here, and we'll get him in the mix and we'll see how it all shakes out. We're excited to have him, as well."

 

 

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Dynasty wise obviously he's nice. 

Redraft, it's a difficult situation to figure.

Jones had over 1,000 total yards last year and 6 TD's.  He had 30 something receptions despite one of his knocks being bad hands.  I can definitely see a world where Jones leads the team in touches and production.  A lot of people have Vaughn higher, so Jones can be had later.  

If both are going late enough, this is one where I might actually grab both and hope for the best.  But if Vaughn's price tag is way higher, Jones feels like a value play.

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I'm on the fence with Vaughn, the age factor is very concerning and I get the transferring from on school to another and I'm not sure if it's an indictment against him or not but it's a red flag nonetheless. However, Vaughn is one of three running backs in the class that has met the thresholds with such stars as Barkley, McCaffrey, Murray, Conner and that's 100 career scrimmage yards per game and at least 10% of their teams' receiving yards. Time will tell if he can meet the standard of the stars that have gone before him.

Tex 

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I took him at 1.11 in one of my PPR dynasty leagues, but RB was my only need coming into the  draft. And I still have the 2.2 and 2.8 picks if I want to get more WR depth. And I'm definitely a contender so felt it made sense. Current Roster:

Lamar Jackson

Zeke, CEH, Taylor, Vaughn, Guice, Scott

Godwin, Evans, JuJu, McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, Samuel, Crowder, Isabella, Sims

Henry, Goedert, Ian Thomas

So with this roster I'm gonna justify spending that 1.11 pick on Vaughn ;)

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So he’s the James White of the south? 

It’ll be interesting to see how he’s utilized. Bucs have a ton of receiving weapons with 3 very capable WRs, plus Gronk/Howard - and I expect RoJo to be the early down/short yardage back. He’s still very young as well. 

i always chuckle a little when literally every RB is described by their new coach or players on the team that drafted them as “capable of being a 3-down back” and everyone hears that & gets way too excited about them. Seems to happen annually about this time of year. 

But he is definitely in a good spot as a receiving back in what I see as an offense on the rise with a QB who likes throwing the the RB. Just seems like there’s an awful lot of other weapons to share targets with, including 2 TEs who can also be used in short yardage.

If Vaughn manages to snag some early down touches I’ll find him a lot more interesting for FF purposes, but as-is I think he’s fairly priced as a 3rd rounder. If he’s rising to 2nd round status based on “new James white” and “capable of being 3-down” expectations, folks might be disappointed in his 2020 FF production since I don’t think he’s on track for that 3-down role, and TB seemingly has a lot more weapons for Brady than he had in NE. Of course he’s 1 injury away, but can’t bank on that. 

There might be some high target “check-down Charlie” type games where he goes off for 7-8 catches, but hard to project as-is. And since I also see the Bucs D as a quality unit that’s also on the rise, it might limit those “play from behind” scenarios that most benefit receiving backs. 

Not hating on the kid - from his highlights he looks like a good young player. Just trying to take a mile-high look to see what his realistic outcome/value is.

where would y’all take him redraft? 

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1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

I took him at 1.11 in one of my PPR dynasty leagues, but RB was my only need coming into the  draft. And I still have the 2.2 and 2.8 picks if I want to get more WR depth. And I'm definitely a contender so felt it made sense. Current Roster:

Lamar Jackson

Zeke, CEH, Taylor, Vaughn, Guice, Scott

Godwin, Evans, JuJu, McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, Samuel, Crowder, Isabella, Sims

Henry, Goedert, Ian Thomas

So with this roster I'm gonna justify spending that 1.11 pick on Vaughn ;)

Brag forum is at the bottom.

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1 hour ago, voiceofunreason said:

Brag forum is at the bottom.

I wasn't bragging, I was just saying I could see where if some owners are set at WR, and have a need at RB, I can see the justification for taking him in the 1st. At least that's what I did here. 

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6 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I wasn't bragging, I was just saying I could see where if some owners are set at WR, and have a need at RB, I can see the justification for taking him in the 1st. At least that's what I did here. 

I think you overpaid regardless of your roster. You may have been able to trade down to take him much later. 

i don’t think you’ll get 1st round value out of him, but he’s in a good offense & opportunity could strike with an injury to RoJo. Good lottery ticket to have. 

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He has been consistently going in the last half of the 1st round of rookie drafts. You would not have had a good chance of getting him if you'd moved back. 

As for whether he belongs in the last half of the 1st or not is a good question but his pricetag is late 1st. Early 2nd is about it. 

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5 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I think you overpaid regardless of your roster. You may have been able to trade down to take him much later. 

i don’t think you’ll get 1st round value out of him, but he’s in a good offense & opportunity could strike with an injury to RoJo. Good lottery ticket to have. 

He's gone anywhere from 8 - 14 the five rookie drafts I've had. I wouldn't take him there myself, but it seems like 11 is a reasonable range for him to go.

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4 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

He has been consistently going in the last half of the 1st round of rookie drafts. You would not have had a good chance of getting him if you'd moved back. 

As for whether he belongs in the last half of the 1st or not is a good question but his pricetag is late 1st. Early 2nd is about it. 

Wow - that’s higher than I thought he’d be going. Seems his value has risen since last I checked. 

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3 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

He's gone anywhere from 8 - 14 the five rookie drafts I've had. I wouldn't take him there myself, but it seems like 11 is a reasonable range for him to go.

In that light I agree both with the statement & the fact that I also would not take him there. 

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The one I took him at 1.12 is actually Superflex FFPC so Burrows and Tua were already gone. More like 1.10 there. I had 1.11, 1.12 and 2.01. I took Jefferson, Vaughn and then moved back to 2.05, where I took Pittman, the guy I would have taken at 2.01 if I had stayed put. 

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8 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

1.11 twice, 1.12 (me), 1.08 and 1.09. All FFPC. My other "dynasty" rookie drafts disband after a 2020 jackpot season, so those drafts are more like redraft, but in those he went 1.06, 1.07x3, 1.08x2 and 1.09, 1.10.

1.06? Did RoJo lose a foot in a bizarre tractor accident? 

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19 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

In that light I agree both with the statement & the fact that I also would not take him there. 

Everyone in that range has vets ahead of them on the depth chart. 

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There have been a lot of warm fuzzy articles lately, pointing out that with Brady being in a win now window, seems odd they would spend an early pick on a guy they were going to sit. Unlike GB with Rodgers, I think the goal was to get players to help them win now (Gronk, Vaughn, Wirfs) so I'm assuming he's going to be given every chance to play right away. 

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8 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

There have been a lot of warm fuzzy articles lately, pointing out that with Brady being in a win now window, seems odd they would spend an early pick on a guy they were going to sit. Unlike GB with Rodgers, I think the goal was to get players to help them win now (Gronk, Vaughn, Wirfs) so I'm assuming he's going to be given every chance to play right away. 

I agree with that. i think most do. he should (depending on how he shows at the pro level) have a role right away. 

But FF value always depends on the role, right? 

3rd down back? Definitely value in PPR - how much will depend on how often they go to him, if he performs well (e.g. isn’t a fumbler, learns the routes, can be trusted in pass protection)

”Breather back”?  less value. 

”backup”? - not a lot of value.

Where he falls on that spectrum is the determining factor. 
 

I would guess he’ll be the 3rd down or receiving back. If he can get 3-5 carries & 4-6 receptions a game, he’s a lock for production as a flex player with upside.

but since Ronald Jones is also a young back and showed well at times last year (when he wasn’t benched for missing a block) it kind of clouds the picture of what Vaughn’s value is for 2020 & beyond.

i get why people are taking him there - I just think it’s a little high. But I do take back my comment on him being a big reach there - didn’t realize that was around his current ADP. My bad. 

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20 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

As a RoJo owner I traded into the second (2.05, pick 17) to get Vaughn.  

I see that as a great trade for you probably very reasonable value for Vaughn.

as a Rojo owner myself I may offer a WR4 type or an equal value-Ish RB to the team that drafts him (Duke Johnson-Ish?)

never hurts to have insurance.

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34 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I see that as a great trade for you probably very reasonable value for Vaughn.

as a Rojo owner myself I may offer a WR4 type or an equal value-Ish RB to the team that drafts him (Duke Johnson-Ish?)

never hurts to have insurance.

In order to get 2.05, I traded Christian Kirk and the 4.06.  

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  • barackdhouse changed the title to Dynasty & Redraft: RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Bucs

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