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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Chase Claypool, Steelers

Faust

By Faust,
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turkishkamel

Diontae ruled OUT. Excited to start Claypool in his let down game now.

crushedspirit

I don't know what the coaches see, but this offense has become predictable to say the least. From what I see, teams have caught on when Claypool comes on the field every second drive to get his compli

Bracie Smathers

'He was ... unstoppable': This Pittsburgh rival has long been on the Chase Claypool bandwagon This article will get any Chase owner pumped.  TJ 'CHAMPIONSHIP' Housmandzadeh trained Chase prior

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The Frankman

The Frankman 3,346

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Chase Claypool caught 4-of-10 targets for 56 yards and two touchdowns in the Steelers' Week 10 win over the Bengals. 

Claypool led the Steelers in Week 9 targets, but his 10 looks today were actually third behind JuJu Smith-Schuster (13) and Diontae Johnson (11). For score No. 1, Claypool high-pointed an 11-yard pass at the goal line late in the third quarter. For No. 2, he ran a simple in route at the goal line, hauling in a five-yard strike to put the Steelers up 36-7 with 10:31 remaining. Up to a ridiculous nine scores in nine games, Claypool also received a carry from the Bengals' five-yard line in the second quarter, but he got knocked for a three-yard loss. Looking more and more uncoverable, Claypool has Ben Roethlisberger's undivided attention in the red zone. That keeps him locked in as a WR2 even in a crowded receiver corps where the targets can be a bit unpredictable week to week. 

- Rotoworld

 

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Faust

Faust 5,300

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Week 11 Dynasty Risers and Fallers: D'Andre Swift has arrived

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RISER: WR CHASE CLAYPOOL, PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Touchdown scoring is best predicted by volume and the particular type of volume (line of scrimmage, average depth of target, down and distance, etc.) can add some predictive value. Still, scoring is one of the more random statistics we can look at in fantasy football. So should dynasty players be buying Claypool on the back of nine touchdowns through nine weeks of his rookie season? Yes.

Touchdowns are indeed random, but most of the rookie scoring outliers since 2000 will say that the players who score in their first season continue doing so throughout their careers.

Rookie WRs with 10-Plus Touchdowns Since 2000
 

Player                            Peak PPR PTS/G        Top-24 Seasons            Top-12 Seasons

Mike Evans                              19                                 7                                       5

Tyreek Hill                                20.5                             4                                       4

Odell Beckham                        24.6                             4                                       3

Mike Williams (TB)                  9.8                               2                                      0

Calvin Ridley                            18.5                             3                                       1
 

Looking at touchdowns is a basic way of analyzing rookie breakouts, but the more salient takeaway might be this: All but one of these receivers saw more targets in their second NFL season. Dropping the cutoff to eight scores, 64% of the receivers saw more targets in their second season (including current second-year players on pace to get more targets). 

For a player to score eight or more times, they are typically staying healthy and getting targeted frequently. That means even without removing the sophomores who got injured, the hit rate for touchdowns producers is very high. Players who score touchdowns are often talented and usually earn more volume as a result of that talent and their production. Claypool's rookie season puts him firmly in the conversation to be a WR1 by next year.

 

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Team Smokin'

Team Smokin' 256

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1 hour ago, icehouse said:

Y’all taking the risk of waiting on him this week?

If they play the game, yes no risk. The risk is if the game gets cancelled on Monday or Tuesday.

I would "think" the decision to play game on will be about 90% by tomorrow. So yes, there is risk and I am monitoring big time. I just moved Connor out, I still have Claypool and PIT D. Kinda important.

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fred_1_15301

fred_1_15301 5,597

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1 minute ago, undercover said:

I wouldn’t wait if you have an equal option...for all his Twitter posting complaining about all the Ravens issues it would be just dessert if they cancel game because of Steelers positives ..and I’m a Claypool owner..

But that’s only if one or more of the Steelers players violated protocol and got it because of that.  If not, it’s apples to oranges.

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turkishkamel

turkishkamel 70

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1 hour ago, Deamon said:

all my leagues have contingency plans in place.

If they didn'tk I dont think you can take the risk.  Don't think that game is played.

We also have contingency plans. Currently Robby Anderson, but the Ekeler news may make it all moot 

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Biabreakable

Biabreakable 5,144

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15 hours ago, Denver724 said:

Wish I would have taken him over the likes of WR Van Jefferson and others in the late 2nd early 3rd. For some reason I kept on having thoughts of Miles Boykin going through my head. 

 

Well Boykin out played him in ND and they were similar prospects so not illogical in my view. I wasn't impressed when watching him. I was wrong. He looks completely different to me with the Steelers now.

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Faust

Faust 5,300

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Chase Claypool caught 6-of-9 targets for 52 yards in the Steelers' Week 12 win over the Ravens.

Claypool, and the rest of the Steelers' pass catching group, left numerous plays on the field. Meanwhile, Baltimore's defensive backs continued to play at a high level and knocked two or three passes out of Claypool's hands, preventing the rookie's near-weekly big play from happening in this odd Wednesday evening affair. Claypool did draw a 36-yard pass interference play early in the second half. Despite the win, this was one of the worst overall performances for the Steelers' offense, but Claypool remains a strong start in Week 13 against Washington.

Dec 2, 2020, 7:25 PM ET

 

 

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tricky92

tricky92 496

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1 hour ago, TakiToki said:

James Washington getting nearly all the snaps in the 2nd half today. Not thrilling to see.

The Steelers have looked like crap ever since they started scaling back Claypools snaps. That they can’t see the correlation is pretty pathetic.

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xenon

xenon 24

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2 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

The Steelers have looked like crap ever since they started scaling back Claypools snaps. That they can’t see the correlation is pretty pathetic.

Yeah...WTF...I noticed this as well..

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tricky92

tricky92 496

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21 minutes ago, belljr said:

fwiw

https://www.lineups.com/nfl/snap-counts/pittsburgh-steelers-snap-counts

He's no lower than 3rd for WR every week

Snap percentage dropped to 60%, which means he's barely out there half of the offensive plays. Terribly dumb, especially when he's carrying one of the highest QBRs when targeted in the league.

Today might have been below 50%.

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Faust

Faust 5,300

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Chase Claypool caught 2-of-4 targets for 38 yards in the Steelers' Week 13 loss to Washington.

Claypool has been splitting time with James Washington as the field-stretcher for Pittsburgh and that time-share burned his fantasy backers this week. Washington brought down a 50-yard touchdown reception on a play that Claypool was on the sidelines for. His massive playmaking ability keeps him in the WR2 conversation but his limited role does impart extra risk into his projection for Week 14 against the Bills. 

Dec 7, 2020, 10:03 PM ET

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Faust

Faust 5,300

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Chase Claypool (illness) did not practice Thursday. 

It would be worrying if Claypool misses Friday's practice with this illness. Even a limited Friday practice should put the rookie on track to play this week against the Bills. He'll be a volatile WR3/4 play against Buffalo. 

SOURCE: Adam Caplan on Twitter 

Dec 10, 2020, 3:49 PM ET

 

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crushedspirit

crushedspirit 122

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I don't know what the coaches see, but this offense has become predictable to say the least. From what I see, teams have caught on when Claypool comes on the field every second drive to get his complimentary deep incompletion. Now, it's common to see him double covered since teams know what play is coming. No more jet sweeps or quick strikes to see if he can make plays like he did before. It all ended, and I'm not sure why. But DJ can drop 6 easy passes the last two weeks and keep running his five yard routes. 

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tricky92

tricky92 496

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10 hours ago, crushedspirit said:

I don't know what the coaches see, but this offense has become predictable to say the least. From what I see, teams have caught on when Claypool comes on the field every second drive to get his complimentary deep incompletion. Now, it's common to see him double covered since teams know what play is coming. No more jet sweeps or quick strikes to see if he can make plays like he did before. It all ended, and I'm not sure why. But DJ can drop 6 easy passes the last two weeks and keep running his five yard routes. 

Yup.

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chad in Indy

chad in Indy 223

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11 hours ago, crushedspirit said:

I don't know what the coaches see, but this offense has become predictable to say the least. From what I see, teams have caught on when Claypool comes on the field every second drive to get his complimentary deep incompletion. Now, it's common to see him double covered since teams know what play is coming. No more jet sweeps or quick strikes to see if he can make plays like he did before. It all ended, and I'm not sure why. But DJ can drop 6 easy passes the last two weeks and keep running his five yard routes. 

Posted this in the Conner page a couple days ago:

Tomlin is still a good coach.  I would imagine they see what the public sees.  Defenses are scheming against the short passing game and it has come full circle. They have to start getting a balanced attack of at least to a 60/40 split.  They were at 80+% week 13 and 70+% passing week 12.  That is ridiculous. With no run, there is no play-action.  I'm also curious why Claypool's snap count has continued to shrink.  He got outsnapped by Washington week 13.  Really????  Not sure why Ben has been publicly pushing for more James Washington. Does he think Washington is more of a threat than Claypool?  Maybe give Claypool some more of the route tree besides the deep ball.

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strong

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have to think there's something going on here.

 

he still gets targeted a lot when he's on the field but this looks like it will be the second straight game with a sub 50% snap share. he only got consistent burn when diontae was benched for a bit for dropsies.

 

pure speculation, but it feels like he's in the doghouse, perhaps from some mental errors that have been tough for us to pick up on, or he's not 100% and they're trying to preserve him for the playoffs...

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Cowboysfan8

Cowboysfan8 7,767

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10 hours ago, strong said:

have to think there's something going on here.

 

he still gets targeted a lot when he's on the field but this looks like it will be the second straight game with a sub 50% snap share. he only got consistent burn when diontae was benched for a bit for dropsies.

 

pure speculation, but it feels like he's in the doghouse, perhaps from some mental errors that have been tough for us to pick up on, or he's not 100% and they're trying to preserve him for the playoffs...

Tomlin and/or Ben was praising Washington a cpl weeks ago saying how hard he works and how good his hands are and he deserves to play. I’m guessing that’s why he’s been on the field lately at Claypools expense 

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ConnSKINS26

ConnSKINS26 5,717

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On 12/14/2020 at 11:19 AM, Denver724 said:

Johnson is the WR1 on this team. He just has to fix the drops (easier said than done). He could have had 8-10 catches yesterday with probably a TD. 

The team’s WR1 doesn’t get benched due to drops, I’m not sure he’s guaranteed to always pull so many snaps if he doesn’t figure it out. I think DJ is crazy talented but not consistent enough to be the AB-lite everyone wanted him to be. Which is fine, that wasn’t realistic. I could see Claypool growing into a much larger share of the targets once he refines his game, but maybe DJ fixes his focus drops too, who knows. Really it all hinges on what life after Ben looks like anyways. 

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tricky92

tricky92 496

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1 hour ago, icehouse said:

Anyone got the stones to start him this Monday?  Cincy isn't tough and he got off last time, but his play as of late....

My Flex choices are Drake, Claypool, and Godwin. I think I need to go Drake, but I had this game marked on my calendar about a month ago.

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turkishkamel

turkishkamel 70

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5 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

The team’s WR1 doesn’t get benched due to drops

They can if the WR is 24 and in their second year in the league. Dude is always open, he just needs to know the drop stuff can't happen. Tomlin said he reacted appropriately, didn't pout, and waited for his next shot.

 

Edit: sorry this is a Claypool thread. Got sidetracked. 

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Faust

Faust 5,300

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Chase Claypool caught 3-of-8 targets for 54 yards in the Steelers' Week 15 loss to the Bengals.

His big catch went for 37 yards down the left sideline to set up a Diontae Johnson 23-yard touchdown. Claypool's eight targets were second on the team. but Big Ben missed the rookie on a would-be touchdown in the back of the end zone. Claypool hasn't caught a touchdown since Week 11 after scoring eight times the first 11 weeks. He'll be a WR3/4 for Week 16 against the Colts.

Dec 21, 2020, 11:51 PM ET

 

 

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Faust

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Speaking Thursday, Chase Claypool said his snaps had been scaled back in recent weeks in an effort to avoid the "rookie wall." 

“Coach (Mike Tomlin) has been in this game for a lot longer time than I have,” Claypool said. “Whether I believe (in the rookie wall) or not, I think he knows what he’s doing. I’m feeling good now. What he did, whether it was necessary or not, I feel good heading into the playoffs.” Claypool became the first rookie in NFL history to score 10 touchdowns across his first 10 games but has zero since, playing reduced snaps and posting disappointing target totals. His snaps did spike back to 79 percent in Week 16, suggesting the Steelers will once again unleash their young weapon in the postseason. Despite his slow finish, Claypool is an elite Dynasty hold in an elite rookie receiving class. 

SOURCE: Profootballtalk on NBCSports.com

Dec 31, 2020, 5:16 PM ET

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The Frankman

The Frankman 3,346

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Chase Claypool caught 5-of-11 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown in the Steelers' Week 17 loss to the Browns. 

With the 5/101/1 performance — with Mason Rudolph at the controls — Claypool sets a new Steelers rookie record with 62 receptions. He also tied Pittsburgh's rookie touchdowns mark with nine. Snap counted for much of the stretch run, Claypool was re-unveiled over the past two weeks and had two encouraging efforts to show for it. He will be a real problem for the Browns in the sides' Wild Card rematch next weekend.

- Rotoworld

 

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RushHour

RushHour 802

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I'm interested in people's thoughts on why Claypool doesn't seem to have the dynasty ranking hype of some other WRs, especially rookies. Obviously Jefferson's season was something else entirely, but to me Claypool was more impressive than any other rookie WR this year, and arguably has more ceiling than a few other hyped second year guys as well. His QB situation going forward is shaky but you could say that of others too and Juju likely going in FA should open up even more opportunity.

Is it just because almost nobody expected him to be this good and so it's hard for perceptions to change? Not saying he doesn't have value because of course he does, but I would have thought an athletic size/speed freak, with pretty awesome rookie production (especially relative to expectation) and big play upside on every touch would be even more coveted. I get the feeling that it will take more from him for a lot of people to truly buy in on him as a dynasty stud, in comparison to some other WR dynasty favourites.

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rockaction

rockaction 25,049

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Just now, IHEARTFF said:

I have him quite a bit higher than consensus. Not sure he's attainable at his consensus value since anyone who drafted him is probably pretty high on him.

This. I offered Robinson for him earlier in the year and it didn't even merit a reply. Sent an inquiry note. Nothing.

Either the guy doesn't like me or he's just not interested in parting. I wouldn't be chomping at any bit to get rid of him.

I was thinking of offering up a first and something for him. I don't even know where to start, but I'm impressed every time I see him play. It's just...what is his QB situation going to be like?

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Todem

Todem 4,913

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I drafted him in the 3d round of my rookie draft (we won the title BTW yippie!!!) in my now 17 years and running dynasty.

REAL DEAL STUD.

He will be a monster. Big, strong, physical, and sneaky fast once he get’s going. I love him. Loved him in Notre Dame and he is going to be a great pro. A beast.

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